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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , political speculation

View Poll Results: Will trump be re-elected?
Yes 28 14.51%
No 80 41.45%
Don't know, but I hope not 82 42.49%
Don't know, but I hope he does 3 1.55%
Voters: 193. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 6th April 2017, 09:10 AM   #161
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Quote:
But you don't need a widespread revolt against Trump by his supporters to have him lose an election in 2020. You just need him to lose ~1% of his voters to tip the scales against him.
You're quite right but there are a number of things working in Trump's favour. It's quite rare for a president to serve only a single term when it's not the third term of a particular party - the US electorate seems to like giving their presidents a full 8 years.
True... most presidents in recent history have been multi-termers.

But Trump isn't a "normal" president by any stretch of the imagination. He's politically inexperienced and especially combative (to both his opponents and to people who SHOULD be his allies, such as Republicans in the senate.) And his personal popularity has cratered almost immediately (unlike other presidents who have at least a few months of popularity after first getting elected).

Because he is so different, I don't think you can really compare the Trump presidency (and his chance of reelection) to those of earlier presidents.

Quote:
It's entirely possible that he will lose the popular vote by an even wider margin but the things that made some states unexpectedly turn red, (white) working class dissatisfaction, a feeling that *something* has to change and so on will still be the same.
But after 1 term, if people don't see the supposed changes Trump was to bring in, he won't be able to run on the "I'm an outsider here to fix things" argument anymore.
Quote:
The GOP will also be working super-hard to get those voter rolls purged and Voter ID implemented to keep hold of those gains.
Yes they will, and voter suppression is very effective in helping the republicans.

The problem is, it had already occurred in 2016, so we know what its effect will be. Its would be unlikely for the situation to get WORSE. (For it to get worse, suppression would have to happen in a swing state, and it would have to be a new law.)

Consider some of the states Trump won by very small margins:
- Wis: Already had a voter ID law in 2016
- Pen: Has a democratic gov, so he's unlikely to support voter suppression
- Florida: Already had a voter ID law in 2016
So, its unlikely that voter suppression will make things worse there.

The only place where things might get worse for the democrats is in Mich, where the republicans are currently in charge. In fact they recently tried to pass stricter voter ID laws, but the bill was abandoned.
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Old 7th April 2017, 12:02 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
True... most presidents in recent history have been multi-termers.

But Trump isn't a "normal" president by any stretch of the imagination. He's politically inexperienced and especially combative (to both his opponents and to people who SHOULD be his allies, such as Republicans in the senate.) And his personal popularity has cratered almost immediately (unlike other presidents who have at least a few months of popularity after first getting elected).

Because he is so different, I don't think you can really compare the Trump presidency (and his chance of reelection) to those of earlier presidents.
Then why assume that it won't be greater ?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
But after 1 term, if people don't see the supposed changes Trump was to bring in, he won't be able to run on the "I'm an outsider here to fix things" argument anymore.
Yes he can, and he will. His spiel will be that the Washington machine has confounded him at every step, that the Democratic Party candidate is part of the Washington establishment (which, no doubt, (s)he will be unless they're a complete outsider in which case they'll be elitist in some way) and that he can sort things out if only he had a free hand.

The electorate will be at least, if not more desperate, and they'll go back for a second helping IMO.


Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Yes they will, and voter suppression is very effective in helping the republicans.

The problem is, it had already occurred in 2016, so we know what its effect will be. Its would be unlikely for the situation to get WORSE. (For it to get worse, suppression would have to happen in a swing state, and it would have to be a new law.)

Consider some of the states Trump won by very small margins:
- Wis: Already had a voter ID law in 2016
- Pen: Has a democratic gov, so he's unlikely to support voter suppression
- Florida: Already had a voter ID law in 2016
So, its unlikely that voter suppression will make things worse there.

The only place where things might get worse for the democrats is in Mich, where the republicans are currently in charge. In fact they recently tried to pass stricter voter ID laws, but the bill was abandoned.
...and the other measures:
  • Purging the voter rolls among minorities so as to ensure that dead people and felons cannot vote. Make getting back on the roll nigh-on impossible
  • Make advance voting and absentee ballots as difficult as possible
  • Close polling stations in minority neighbourhoods to ensure long, long lines to dissuade people from voting

Nothing new, but I expect much, much more of the same
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Old 21st October 2020, 05:04 PM   #163
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A thread I made I completely forgot. So, yeah if you didnít already vote in this poll cause weíre gonna know the answer soon!
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Old 21st October 2020, 05:18 PM   #164
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His chance of re-election is below 1/10.
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Old 21st October 2020, 06:12 PM   #165
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I'm loving seeing the map projections. It seems that Florida will be the major deciding factor. Not like it hasn't been before.
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Old 21st October 2020, 06:55 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
His chance of re-election is below 1/10.
Not according to fivethirtyeight.com. His current chances are hovering between 12%-13%.
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Old 22nd October 2020, 05:56 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
...and the other measures:
  • Purging the voter rolls among minorities so as to ensure that dead people and felons cannot vote. Make getting back on the roll nigh-on impossible
  • Make advance voting and absentee ballots as difficult as possible
  • Close polling stations in minority neighbourhoods to ensure long, long lines to dissuade people from voting

Nothing new, but I expect much, much more of the same
Looks like my concerns from three years ago were pretty much on the money but I didn't foresee him trying to cast doubt on the whole process.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 12:06 AM   #168
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I'm in for Biden at 295 EVs.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 07:39 AM   #169
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I know it's risky but I'm going to call a Biden win at 357 EVs. Biden will outperform the polls in Texas where he's only down by .5 percent in the aggregate polls. He'll also carry Florida.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 08:16 AM   #170
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I voted "I don't know, but I hope not". There's just no way to tell with Trump because he's unlike every other POTUS there has been. I suppose it also depends on his defeat margin, because if he loses by a landslide, it'll be far harder for him to steal the election.

If I had to guess an outcome, I'd go with no, though. Partly because the GOP might simply drop him if he loses, and partly because the US is such a powderkeg right now that trying to nullify the election results might be suicidal to the Republicans. Remember the Women's March in 2016? Do you see the widespread protests and police brutality going on right now? I predict they are nothing compared to what's coming if the GOP messes too much with the election results. I predict the GOP knows, too.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 08:34 AM   #171
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There are some interesting post on the first page of this thread.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 08:41 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I know it's risky but I'm going to call a Biden win at 357 EVs. Biden will outperform the polls in Texas where he's only down by .5 percent in the aggregate polls. He'll also carry Florida.
270's Aggregate Poll puts us at safe 290 to 163 with 85 votes (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2) still up for grabs.

But the "Blue Wall" (Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin) still worry me personally. None of them are "safely blue" and any one or more of them go Red and we're right back where we started in potential paths to victory being within the margins of error.

You could make a fair argument for the early voting surge inflating the numbers in a lot of different ways.

One it could offset the "Red Mirage" that we've been worried about, but on the other hand it could mean most of the blue votes have already been counted in some areas and everything from here on out is going to be red.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 08:56 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
But the "Blue Wall" (Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin) still worry me personally.
I did my part and voted Biden as a resident of PA. I didn't vote in 2016 and was therefore part of the problem. I don't want to be part of the problem again.

In this thread's poll, I voted "I hope not, but I don't know" because Trump seems like too much of a wild card to make any definitive preductions.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 09:00 AM   #174
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What comforts me is how much stronger Biden's support is than Trump's. If you look at the snake on FiveThirtyEight, there's a lot more dark blue than dark red. It's worrying that a fair bit of the blue part (such as the aforementioned blue wall) isn't darker, but at least it's a lead over Trump.

I just wish Florida would turn blue. That would be incredibly reassuring.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 09:21 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
270's Aggregate Poll puts us at safe 290 to 163 with 85 votes (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2) still up for grabs.

But the "Blue Wall" (Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin) still worry me personally. None of them are "safely blue" and any one or more of them go Red and we're right back where we started in potential paths to victory being within the margins of error.

You could make a fair argument for the early voting surge inflating the numbers in a lot of different ways.

One it could offset the "Red Mirage" that we've been worried about, but on the other hand it could mean most of the blue votes have already been counted in some areas and everything from here on out is going to be red.
I find it disconcerting as well.
I am worried the "law and order" message Trump is pushing will play better in the near suburbs of Philly, and Detroit than the polls seem to think.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 09:24 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
I just wish Florida would turn blue. That would be incredibly reassuring.
Fun tool from 538

Basically, if Trump loses any of the the close races, his chances of winning plummet into the low single digits. There are a few exceptions that only put him in the high single digits. Biden has a lot more leeway. He can lose several and still not dip below 50% chance of winning.

I mean, there are still a lot of complexities to it, but Trump is in a tough spot no matter how you look at it.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 09:36 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
I suppose it also depends on his defeat margin, because if he loses by a landslide, it'll be far harder for him to steal the election.

"America loves me. I'm your favorite President. These results clearly show that millions, tens of millions of fraudulent votes were cast against me in a plot to steal the election."
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Old 23rd October 2020, 09:39 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Fun tool from 538

Basically, if Trump loses any of the the close races, his chances of winning plummet into the low single digits. There are a few exceptions that only put him in the high single digits. Biden has a lot more leeway. He can lose several and still not dip below 50% chance of winning.

I mean, there are still a lot of complexities to it, but Trump is in a tough spot no matter how you look at it.
It would be fun to have him lose North Dakota.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 10:25 AM   #179
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The issue isn't really whether Trump can win the election. The question is whether he can steal it.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 10:39 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
"America loves me. I'm your favorite President. These results clearly show that millions, tens of millions of fraudulent votes were cast against me in a plot to steal the election."
Well, yeah, but I'm thinking in terms of it being harder for him to steal the election the more votes he has to nullify.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 11:19 AM   #181
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He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 02:16 PM   #182
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The pure symbolism of California, Texas, Florida, and New York all voting for the same President would give us a cultural message not seen since Reagan.

Florida's a maybe leaning toward probably. Texas is a longshot but closer then it has been in a while.

As to the polling I, honestly with no snark, do think the major pollsters (who I understand weren't "wrong" in the way often think they were wrong about 2016) have put valid effort into adjusting for the polling errors in 2016, that's not the same thing as having full confidence that they have adjusted for the polling errors in 2016.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 03:58 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
And the decision will be declared not to set precedent.
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Old 23rd October 2020, 07:23 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I know it's risky but I'm going to call a Biden win at 357 EVs. Biden will outperform the polls in Texas where he's only down by .5 percent in the aggregate polls. He'll also carry Florida.
I want to amend my expectation to at least 357. My figure did not take into account the possibility of Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio being American victories. I still think America will carry the Blue Wall plus Florida and Texas.
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Old 24th October 2020, 12:03 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
Sadly, this could very well be the way it plays out
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Old 24th October 2020, 06:33 AM   #186
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Worst-case scenario -- Biden dies before the election. I know it's still possible for him to be elected anyway but I'd find it highly unlikely. Penultimate worst-case -- he gets a bad case of Covid-19.

After the election either wouldn't matter so much as I believe there are processes in place and I think Harris would take over, but I'm not 100% sure of that.
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Old 24th October 2020, 06:24 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
I get the joke, but the SCotUS can't actually elect the President. What they can do it is rule in such a way that it throws out enough races for the Electoral College to become contested, or neither candidate has the required 270 votes. At that point, the decision goes to Congress where the Republicans hold the required 26 of 50 votes resulting in a 26 to 22, with 2 abstentions, vote to Trump.
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Old 24th October 2020, 07:27 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I get the joke, but the SCotUS can't actually elect the President. What they can do it is rule in such a way that it throws out enough races for the Electoral College to become contested, or neither candidate has the required 270 votes. At that point, the decision goes to Congress where the Republicans hold the required 26 of 50 votes resulting in a 26 to 22, with 2 abstentions, vote to Trump.
The SCOTUS already made W Bush President 20 years ago.
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Old 24th October 2020, 07:56 PM   #189
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Trump will win the EC, Biden will win the popular vote.

If you look at the poll margins just for the swing states and look at the actual number of people that represents, it is not very many.

While both parties have voter databases for targeted campaigning the GOP seem to have more sophisticated tools to use this.

People influenced by these kinds of campaign are not necessarily spread evenly among the population and will not necessarily show up in polling.

Likely there will be a blitz on evangelicals and Catholics in the swing states to the effect that Biden is going to bias the Supreme Court back to Liberals, whereas Trump will move it even farther to the right.

If Trump convinces, maybe, 0.1% of that group to vote who wouldn't normally vote in the swing states, then he has this election sewn up.
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Old 25th October 2020, 12:34 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The SCOTUS already made W Bush President 20 years ago.
That doesn't count because of reasons........ in fact, it can't be used as precedent because of those same reasons....
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Old 25th October 2020, 08:11 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
SO you are writing off the US as a Democracy.
I am not convinced the SUpreme Court is quite as biased as you think it is
And I think you have become a bit emotionally invested in being a Cassandra.
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Old 25th October 2020, 08:22 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The SCOTUS already made W Bush President 20 years ago.
That FLorida 2000 was a fluke does not occur to you?
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Old 25th October 2020, 08:41 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That FLorida 2000 was a fluke does not occur to you?
That was a fluke. This will be a coup, and yes, the end of democracy in the USA.
Wasn't it you expecting civil war not so long ago?
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Old 25th October 2020, 08:43 PM   #194
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I'm giving Biden 320+ electoral votes.
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Old 25th October 2020, 08:57 PM   #195
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That was a fluke. This will be a coup, and yes, the end of democracy in the USA.
Wasn't it you expecting civil war not so long ago?

I think it is a real possiblity if there is a coup but I think a coup is not that likely.
I just hink that even conservative justices would be reluctant to stage a full scale coup.
Paranoia does not exist soley on the right.
Or maybe you want it to happen on the "Sooner we have fascism, the sooner we will have the revollution" theory.
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Old 26th October 2020, 06:37 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That FLorida 2000 was a fluke does not occur to you?
A deliberate action to undermine democracy was just a fluke?
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Old 30th October 2020, 01:02 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That FLorida 2000 was a fluke does not occur to you?
one time is a fluke.

But just now Kavanaugh referenced Bush v. Gore in a vote-counting lawsuit, which means that at least for him it's Precedent (even though the literal text of the decisions says that it cannot be taken as such).

No, Florida 2000 might have been a fluke then, but it has become a blueprint.
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Old 30th October 2020, 10:25 AM   #198
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Originally, in February 2017 I voted "Don't know, but I hope not".

But, if had to vote now, then I would vote "No".

The three things I have noticed recently, which were not there in 2017 are:

One: Biden is significantly our-fundraising Trump.
Two: Trump has foolishly squandered a great deal of his campaign funds.
Three: even the news media now tends to speak of Trump in the past tense. Which I find to be significant since the news media often has a good grasp of the current public sentiment.
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Old 30th October 2020, 11:13 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
one time is a fluke.

But just now Kavanaugh referenced Bush v. Gore in a vote-counting lawsuit, which means that at least for him it's Precedent (even though the literal text of the decisions says that it cannot be taken as such).

No, Florida 2000 might have been a fluke then, but it has become a blueprint.
I'd love to hear the Supreme Court make a legal argument that something they do isn't a precedent. I'm pretty sure that's not how like... what the law is... works.
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Old 30th October 2020, 12:35 PM   #200
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I fear the answer is yes.

When a 70 + yo lifelong democrat party voter tells you he's voting for Trump because of civil unrest and doesn't trust Biden to end it, there's a problem.
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