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Tags 2020 elections , Elizabeth Warren , Kamala Harris , Karen Bass , political speculation , vice presidential choices

View Poll Results: Who will Biden choose as running mate?
Elizabeth Warren 3 6.25%
Gretchen Whitmer 0 0%
Kamala Harris 23 47.92%
Karen Bass 3 6.25%
Keisha Lance Bottoms 2 4.17%
Michelle Lujan Grisham 1 2.08%
Stacey Abrams 0 0%
Susan Rice 5 10.42%
Tammy Duckworth 5 10.42%
Val Demings 1 2.08%
Another US Senator 0 0%
Another Governor 0 0%
Someone else 1 2.08%
On Planet X, Mike Pence will be VEEP Forever 4 8.33%
Voters: 48. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 3rd August 2020, 06:34 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Bee for the win!
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Old 3rd August 2020, 07:27 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why is a Stalinist on Biden's short list? Who in his entourage has those ideas and that kind of influence? Previously I said I'd be okay with a Biden administration in counterpoint to a GOP legislature. But if he's got actual Stalin apologists nudging his policy positions, I'm going to have to nope out of that. Four more years of Trump is infinitely preferably to a Stalin-adjacent presidency.
I've been smirking for 24 hours since reading this hilarious post. What's funny is the astounding eagerness to buy in, to assign that much weight to things a person said decades ago, and to elevate it to Stalin adjacency. I especially enjoy the "infinitely preferable" part, as if Trump wasn't an actual authoritarian, never mind adjacency. Laughing dogs etc.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 07:43 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by gypsyjackson View Post
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...79bd3b71f7.jpg

But I think Harris will get it. How many times has a VP pick influenced their home state to switch vote?
Hard to say. But LBJ in 1960 for sure. Kennedy doesn't win without him.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 07:57 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I think he'll choose Elizabeth Warren. She seems pretty popular with Democrats, though so is Kamala Harris. But he's pretty conservative so he'll choose someone white.
I really like Warren, I voted for her in the primary. But I don't think he should pick her, I think he should pick someone younger (if Warren had won the nomination, then I think she should have also picked a younger running mate). Partly to reach out to younger voters, and also as a backup plan in for COVID-19 - if older people are at higher risk, then I would prefer Biden's choice be someone from a lower-risk group.

If he picks Duckworth, it will be Birtherism 2.0 because she was born in Thailand and her mother is Thai. Her father is American, he was stationed in Thailand in the military and his American ancestry dates back to the Revolutionary war. But my social media feed is full of claims that's Duckworth is ineligible because (they claim) she's not an American-born citizen. (They are wrong, of course.)

At this point though, I think birtherism 2.0 would hurt the Republicans much more than previously. At good part of the GOP would like to pretend birtherism never happened, it now embarrasses the more moderate voters and complicates outreach to minority voters. Strategically, it could be a good old-fashioned "wedge issue" to divide the more moderates (now embarrassed by birtherism) from the more rabid conspiracy-driven wing of the party.

(more or less off topic, I learned from these "debates" that John McCain was not born on U.S. soil either. His father was stationed in the Panama Canal Zone, which was U.S. soil at the time. But the birth itself happened in a hospital outside the canal zone, not on U.S. soil. If Duckworth isn't eligible, McCain wasn't either).
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Old 3rd August 2020, 08:17 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I've been smirking for 24 hours since reading this hilarious post. What's funny is the astounding eagerness to buy in, to assign that much weight to things a person said decades ago, and to elevate it to Stalin adjacency. I especially enjoy the "infinitely preferable" part, as if Trump wasn't an actual authoritarian, never mind adjacency. Laughing dogs etc.
Forget about years ago. Here she is yesterday on Meet the Press, claiming that Cuba has medicines for diabetes and lung cancer:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...-2020-n1235604

On the the other hand, she seems to have hardened her stance on Cuba at least a little bit. So perhaps she's no longer the Stalinist she once was. Still, with all the other people to choose from, it's still kinda weird to have a (former?) Stalinist on the short list.

I'm not even concerned about the tu quoque. I think we can both agree that neither Biden nor Trump should pick a Stalinist VP.

Anyway, it's unlikely Biden will pick her, so all's well that ends well I suppose.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 08:27 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Forget about years ago. Here she is yesterday on Meet the Press, claiming that Cuba has medicines for diabetes and lung cancer:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...-2020-n1235604

That seems a pretty harmless quote:
Quote:
The Cubans also have two medicines, one for diabetes, of which my mother died for, lung cancer, which my father died for, and I would like to have those drugs tested in the United States.

I can't find the least fault with wanting to test potential new medications.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 09:35 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
That seems a pretty harmless quote:


I can't find the least fault with wanting to test potential new medications.
You think it's plausible that Cuba has developed a medicine for lung cancer that's unheard-of elsewhere?
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Old 3rd August 2020, 09:48 AM   #48
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Maybe Bass was referring to Cimavax and Heberprot-P?
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:30 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You think it's plausible that Cuba has developed a medicine for lung cancer that's unheard-of elsewhere?
She didn't say they have come up with a 100% cure-all for all lung cancer in all people. She didn't even say what they have works, or that it works better than what's already available. She suggested that it get tested, to see if it works - you know, science.

There are a lot of medicines for all different kinds of cancer, often used in combination, all with varying degrees of efficacy. It does not seem a stretch at all to think that someone has come up with one more that is at least promising enough to test in more than one country.

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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:33 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Maybe Bass was referring to Cimavax and Heberprot-P?
I will assume, for the sake of argument, that this is the case. Assuming there's even something you want to argue about.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:37 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I will assume, for the sake of argument, that this is the case. Assuming there's even something you want to argue about.
????? You're the one who brought it up!
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:38 AM   #52
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I also voted Duckworth because I like her, but I'd actually rather he didn't pick any sitting Senator. And Warren is too old.
If it's Duckworth, the R's will be screaming about her citizenship within seconds of the announcement. Probably faked her war wounds, too.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:46 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
She didn't say they have come up with a 100% cure-all for all lung cancer in all people. She didn't even say what they have works, or that it works better than what's already available. She suggested that it get tested, to see if it works - you know, science.
I assume the Cuban government has already carried out substantial scientific testing of these treatments.

Quote:
There are a lot of medicines for all different kinds of cancer, often used in combination, all with varying degrees of efficacy. It does not seem a stretch at all to think that someone has come up with one more that is at least promising enough to test in more than one country.
If Cuba has already established the basic efficacy and ethicality of these treatments through scientific testing, then I'd be very surprised if they're not getting further trials in more than one country already. Canada, the EU, China, and Brazil all spring to mind.

If Cuba is using untested treatments, not currently recognized or endorsed by any other country, I don't see why this should burden the US medical community with any obligations other than perhaps "hey maybe you shouldn't give patients untested medicine."

It'll be interesting to see if a Biden administration pursues independent (or even joint) research into these medicines. Whether or not Ball gets the VP nod.

Incidentally, Bass is a California legislator. Are there industry or trade regulations at the federal level that prevent her state from pursuing its own research into these treatments? Given the highly distributed nature of government authority in the US system, it annoys me when state policymakers seem to be sitting on their hands waiting for the federal government to enact the policies they claim to want.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 11:10 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Incidentally, Bass is a California legislator.
Was. She was term-limited out of the legislature in 2010 and handed a congressional seat on a silver platter.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 12:04 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
????? You're the one who brought it up!
An observation in passing. I question the plausibility of Cuba having a scientifically-tested treatment that is being ignored by the rest of the world, but I don't see much point in arguing about it. Do you want to argue about it? No? Then we can move on to other more likely VP picks for Biden.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 12:07 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Was. She was term-limited out of the legislature in 2010 and handed a congressional seat on a silver platter.
Thanks for the correction.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 12:15 PM   #57
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How about Angela Davis? I bet we can get more drama out of the impossible options than we ever could with the exceedingly unlikely.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 12:50 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
That seems a pretty harmless quote:

The Cubans also have two medicines, one for diabetes, of which my mother died for, lung cancer, which my father died for, and I would like to have those drugs tested in the United States.
Died "for", really? I know I'm a grammar pedant, but that's a bizarre way of phrasing that.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:58 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I think he'll choose Elizabeth Warren. She seems pretty popular with Democrats, though so is Kamala Harris. But he's pretty conservative so he'll choose someone white.


You do know that Warren is considered more "progressive" of the two.

I really don't think it will be Warren.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 11:29 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I really like Warren, I voted for her in the primary. But I don't think he should pick her, I think he should pick someone younger (if Warren had won the nomination, then I think she should have also picked a younger running mate). Partly to reach out to younger voters, and also as a backup plan in for COVID-19 - if older people are at higher risk, then I would prefer Biden's choice be someone from a lower-risk group.

If he picks Duckworth, it will be Birtherism 2.0 because she was born in Thailand and her mother is Thai. Her father is American, he was stationed in Thailand in the military and his American ancestry dates back to the Revolutionary war. But my social media feed is full of claims that's Duckworth is ineligible because (they claim) she's not an American-born citizen. (They are wrong, of course.)

At this point though, I think birtherism 2.0 would hurt the Republicans much more than previously. At good part of the GOP would like to pretend birtherism never happened, it now embarrasses the more moderate voters and complicates outreach to minority voters. Strategically, it could be a good old-fashioned "wedge issue" to divide the more moderates (now embarrassed by birtherism) from the more rabid conspiracy-driven wing of the party.

(more or less off topic, I learned from these "debates" that John McCain was not born on U.S. soil either. His father was stationed in the Panama Canal Zone, which was U.S. soil at the time. But the birth itself happened in a hospital outside the canal zone, not on U.S. soil. If Duckworth isn't eligible, McCain wasn't either).
Neither was Ted Cruz.

I think birtherism when the US citizen was a soldier rather than a female single mom is just not going to fly the second time around.

Besides, Duckworth was born in Thailand. There is no CT she is pretending to have been born in the US.
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Old 4th August 2020, 01:28 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I think he'll choose Elizabeth Warren. She seems pretty popular with Democrats, though so is Kamala Harris. But he's pretty conservative so he'll choose someone white.
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I really like Warren, I voted for her in the primary. But I don't think he should pick her, I think he should pick someone younger (if Warren had won the nomination, then I think she should have also picked a younger running mate). Partly to reach out to younger voters, and also as a backup plan in for COVID-19 - if older people are at higher risk, then I would prefer Biden's choice be someone from a lower-risk group.

If he picks Duckworth, it will be Birtherism 2.0 because she was born in Thailand and her mother is Thai. Her father is American, he was stationed in Thailand in the military and his American ancestry dates back to the Revolutionary war. But my social media feed is full of claims that's Duckworth is ineligible because (they claim) she's not an American-born citizen. (They are wrong, of course.)

At this point though, I think birtherism 2.0 would hurt the Republicans much more than previously. At good part of the GOP would like to pretend birtherism never happened, it now embarrasses the more moderate voters and complicates outreach to minority voters. Strategically, it could be a good old-fashioned "wedge issue" to divide the more moderates (now embarrassed by birtherism) from the more rabid conspiracy-driven wing of the party.

(more or less off topic, I learned from these "debates" that John McCain was not born on U.S. soil either. His father was stationed in the Panama Canal Zone, which was U.S. soil at the time. But the birth itself happened in a hospital outside the canal zone, not on U.S. soil. If Duckworth isn't eligible, McCain wasn't either).

These polls seem more about people voting for:

who they would like to be the running mate;

who they fear will be the running mate;

who they think would be the right running mate to win.

Not all the same thing.


I voted Warren as I think that's who I think Biden will pick.

I would like Kamala Harris to be the running mate.

I fear he will choose someone less popular than Warren or Harris.

I think the right running mate to win will be Warren.


The Bernie thing shows that many Millennials are happy with the idea of old people running things.


Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post


You do know that Warren is considered more "progressive" of the two.

I really don't think it will be Warren.
Of course I know Warren is "progressive". Certainly more progressive than Biden.

Don't you know Biden is conservative so is more likely not to choose Kamala Harris (who has the most votes in this poll)?

Let's face it, BLM shows there is a race problem in the USA. I don't think Biden is quite up to speed on things, though I could be wrong. This is an opinion poll, after all.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong and Biden chooses Harris.

I would like America to be the place where Biden/Harris win.
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Old 4th August 2020, 04:49 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
These polls seem more about people voting for:

who they would like to be the running mate;

who they fear will be the running mate;

who they think would be the right running mate to win.

Not all the same thing.


I voted Warren as I think that's who I think Biden will pick.

I would like Kamala Harris to be the running mate.

I fear he will choose someone less popular than Warren or Harris.

I think the right running mate to win will be Warren.



The Bernie thing shows that many Millennials are happy with the idea of old people running things.




Of course I know Warren is "progressive". Certainly more progressive than Biden.

Don't you know Biden is conservative so is more likely not to choose Kamala Harris (who has the most votes in this poll)?

Let's face it, BLM shows there is a race problem in the USA. I don't think Biden is quite up to speed on things, though I could be wrong. This is an opinion poll, after all.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong and Biden chooses Harris.

I would like America to be the place where Biden/Harris win.
I selected Harris in the poll, but would prefer Warren.
About everything else, I agree.
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Old 4th August 2020, 05:10 AM   #63
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Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...
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Old 4th August 2020, 05:39 AM   #64
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Warren is, hands down, the most capable “President in Waiting” of the group, in the event of emergency. Both in intellect and comportment, she would transition to the office with a minimum of difficulty.

Biden will not pick Warren.
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Old 4th August 2020, 05:40 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Warren is, hands down, the most capable “President in Waiting” of the group should an emergency arise. Both in intellect and comportment, she would transition to the office with a minimum of difficulty.

Biden will not pick Warren.
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Old 4th August 2020, 05:51 AM   #66
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I'm betting on Harris. Before George Floyd, I'd have said she would get AG. She's a woman of color, younger which is important for Biden at his age and not in the defund the police camp. The "She's too ambitious" concern won't matter. It's the vice presidency, the unambitious need not apply.
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Old 4th August 2020, 07:43 AM   #67
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Biden Says He Can't Wait To Find Out Who He Picked For VP
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Old 4th August 2020, 07:45 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I'm sure he'll be as happy as the day Putin told Trump who he had picked to be his VP.
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Old 4th August 2020, 08:27 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...
Like that time Bush picked Cheney. I mean, without Wyoming's three EC votes, Bush would have been toast. And who would'a thought that Wyoming would vote Republican?

Or McCain's choice of Palin, for all of Alaska's EC votes.

My point is that you are half right - they pick the VP candidate to get swing votes - but those candidates picked to get the swing votes don't need to be coming from the actual swing states. Harris, for example could counter the GOP narrative that the Dems are anti-cop, that narrative is not limited to California. Duckworth could counter the narrative that the Dems and anti-military, and that could have an impact well beyond Hawaii.
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Old 4th August 2020, 08:37 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Like that time Bush picked Cheney. I mean, without Wyoming's three EC votes, Bush would have been toast. And who would'a thought that Wyoming would vote Republican?

Or McCain's choice of Palin, for all of Alaska's EC votes.

My point is that you are half right - they pick the VP candidate to get swing votes - but those candidates picked to get the swing votes don't need to be coming from the actual swing states. Harris, for example could counter the GOP narrative that the Dems are anti-cop, that narrative is not limited to California. Duckworth could counter the narrative that the Dems and anti-military, and that could have an impact well beyond Hawaii.
Six months ago, a Harris pick might have tipped the balance among voters who weren't sure just how anti-cop the Dems are, or if the Dems are maybe just a little too anti-cop. But now? With Dems supporting anti-cop riots, and proposals to defund the police in several Dem strongholds? I doubt a Harris pick is going to move the needle at all for those voters. They have larger concerns right now.

As for Duckworth? It depends if she herself is seen as being anti-military. Having had a military career is worth a lot to the pro-military folks. But a former soldier who turns against the services loses all that credit. Plus, I doubt there's many pro-military voters who are on the fence in the first place.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:15 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I'm sure he'll be as happy as the day Putin told Trump who he had picked to be his VP.
The world inside your head must be a distressing place to live.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:19 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
With Dems supporting anti-cop riots
Nice spin.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:36 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Six months ago, a Harris pick might have tipped the balance among voters who weren't sure just how anti-cop the Dems are, or if the Dems are maybe just a little too anti-cop. But now? With Dems supporting anti-cop riots, and proposals to defund the police in several Dem strongholds? I doubt a Harris pick is going to move the needle at all for those voters. They have larger concerns right now.
The thing is, the demonstrations have not been universally popular among Dems, and the Defund the Police movement is still in its infancy and still lacks a universal formula for how to get there. Putting a Dem with and LE background on the ticket could help counter some of that. Give Dems leverage to appear to counter the worst ideas regarding changes in Law Enforcement in America, without coming out in support of the old status quo.

Quote:

As for Duckworth? It depends if she herself is seen as being anti-military. Having had a military career is worth a lot to the pro-military folks. But a former soldier who turns against the services loses all that credit. Plus, I doubt there's many pro-military voters who are on the fence in the first place.
The risk the GOP faces with Duckworth as that many far-right people will go too far in going after Duckworth - some of those who "turn against the services" may end up being those who go off the deep end in targeting Duckworth. Swift Boating worked once, but it could backfire if the Dems are prepared when it happens again. If she gets nommed, Conspiracy Theorists will absolutely spin up to speed making up stories about her, about her service, about how she was injured (along with reviving the birtherism I previously mentioned). The mass conspiracy movement seems to have gone past the point where it benefits the Republican Party, now it is becoming an embarrassment. But the Republicans can't stop that now, it has become an integral part of how the party operates. If the Dems can be ready to counter the CTs, then the CT's can hurt the Republicans much more than they hurt the Dems.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:52 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...
That's what some people think. But mostly, history doesn't really back that up. Gore didn't help Clinton in Tennessee. Bush Sr.would have won Indiana without Quayle. Same goes for Trump and Pence and Bush Jr would have won Wyoming without Cheney. The last VP candidate that absolutely made a difference in the Presidential election is probably LBJ.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:59 AM   #75
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Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



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Old 4th August 2020, 10:01 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Hard to say. But LBJ in 1960 for sure. Kennedy doesn't win without him.
I analyzed it a number of years back and found that VPs tended to improve the ticket's net percentage of the vote in the VP's home state by about 2.75 percentage points.

I analyzed the elections from 1964-2004. I excluded any VPs running for reelection since those tend to be referendums on the sitting President. There were 16 VP candidates who qualified. Of those, 12 appear to have helped their presidential candidate and 4 did not.

I'll illustrate with John Edwards, John Kerry's running mate in 2004. Edwards was from North Carolina, which Bush took by 12.44 percentage points in 2004. By contrast, Bush won North Carolina by 12.83 percentage points in 2000, so Edwards improved things by about 0.39 percentage points.

But that's not the whole story. Remember, Bush actually lost the popular vote nationally by 0.51 percentage points in 2000, and won by 2.46 percentage points in 2004, so there was a national trend for Bush to pick up 2.97 percentage points. Thus, the indicated improvement for the Democrats in North Carolina from having Edwards on the ticket appears to be about 3.36 percentage points.
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Old 4th August 2020, 10:03 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
That's what some people think. But mostly, history doesn't really back that up. Gore didn't help Clinton in Tennessee. Bush Sr.would have won Indiana without Quayle. Same goes for Trump and Pence and Bush Jr would have won Wyoming without Cheney. The last VP candidate that absolutely made a difference in the Presidential election is probably LBJ.
And I don't see picking Wendy Davis as a viable means to win Texas. In fact, I can't think of any female Texan that would increase his odds of winning Texas. He is either going to win it or lose it based on how embarrassed Texans are of Trump.
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Old 4th August 2020, 10:15 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



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I had an idea about a joke about Sarah Palin and Tammy Duckworth both being chosen based on their legs. Duckworth arguably has the better pair, all shiny chrome and plastic.
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Old 4th August 2020, 10:27 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



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I almost nommed, but you went and explained the joke. You didn't need to do that, it could stand on its own.
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Old 4th August 2020, 11:35 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I almost nommed, but you went and explained the joke. You didn't need to do that, it could stand on its own.
It was a preemptive strike on my part, not everyone here has a great sense of humor when it comes to that sort of thing.
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