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Tags 2020 elections , Elizabeth Warren , Kamala Harris , Karen Bass , political speculation , vice presidential choices

View Poll Results: Who will Biden choose as running mate?
Elizabeth Warren 3 6.25%
Gretchen Whitmer 0 0%
Kamala Harris 23 47.92%
Karen Bass 3 6.25%
Keisha Lance Bottoms 2 4.17%
Michelle Lujan Grisham 1 2.08%
Stacey Abrams 0 0%
Susan Rice 5 10.42%
Tammy Duckworth 5 10.42%
Val Demings 1 2.08%
Another US Senator 0 0%
Another Governor 0 0%
Someone else 1 2.08%
On Planet X, Mike Pence will be VEEP Forever 4 8.33%
Voters: 48. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 4th August 2020, 11:59 AM   #81
Dr. Keith
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I analyzed it a number of years back and found that VPs tended to improve the ticket's net percentage of the vote in the VP's home state by about 2.75 percentage points.
So, if a candidate wanted to use the VP slot for EC advantage on a state basis it would've to be state that is very close to make any difference. That's got to be a very short list at this point.

Frankly, I think it is more important to view the VP choice in how it impacts overall turnout. But I appreciate that you ran the numbers.

ETA: I'm the only person here who thinks there is a good chance it will be someone not listed. Interesting.
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Old 4th August 2020, 03:03 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I analyzed it a number of years back and found that VPs tended to improve the ticket's net percentage of the vote in the VP's home state by about 2.75 percentage points.

I analyzed the elections from 1964-2004. I excluded any VPs running for reelection since those tend to be referendums on the sitting President. There were 16 VP candidates who qualified. Of those, 12 appear to have helped their presidential candidate and 4 did not.

I'll illustrate with John Edwards, John Kerry's running mate in 2004. Edwards was from North Carolina, which Bush took by 12.44 percentage points in 2004. By contrast, Bush won North Carolina by 12.83 percentage points in 2000, so Edwards improved things by about 0.39 percentage points.

But that's not the whole story. Remember, Bush actually lost the popular vote nationally by 0.51 percentage points in 2000, and won by 2.46 percentage points in 2004, so there was a national trend for Bush to pick up 2.97 percentage points. Thus, the indicated improvement for the Democrats in North Carolina from having Edwards on the ticket appears to be about 3.36 percentage points.
I think there are some serious issues with your analysis. I absolutely do not believe you can make deductions from one election to another or national percentages to state percentages. But I tip my cap to you for doing the work.

You may be right about Edwards, but there are far too many variables to have any certainty.
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Old 4th August 2020, 03:54 PM   #83
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Now with her eulogy of a CPUSA leader making thenews, Karen Bass is pretty much through.
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Old 4th August 2020, 04:00 PM   #84
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It's endlessly amusing how news like that could be used against Biden in a way conservatives would never against Trump, and there's plenty of material there.

There are quite a few former CPUSA leaders who've voted for mainstream neoliberal Democrats, and they don't even try too hard to rationalize it with the "lesser evil" or any of that.
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Old 4th August 2020, 07:18 PM   #85
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I voted for Susan Rice, even though she wouldn't be my preference. She's the one that Biden knows the best, at least among the plausible candidates.
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Old 4th August 2020, 08:11 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I voted for Susan Rice, even though she wouldn't be my preference. She's the one that Biden knows the best, at least among the plausible candidates.
And she's incredibly intelligent. I'd love to see her debate Trump sycophant Pence.
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Old 4th August 2020, 09:31 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And she's incredibly intelligent. I'd love to see her debate Trump sycophant Pence.
But Pence has GAWD on his side!
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Old 4th August 2020, 10:14 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
But Pence has GAWD on his side!
All the better.
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Old 5th August 2020, 08:16 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I think there are some serious issues with your analysis. I absolutely do not believe you can make deductions from one election to another or national percentages to state percentages. But I tip my cap to you for doing the work.

You may be right about Edwards, but there are far too many variables to have any certainty.
I'm certainly not saying that it's 100% certain; I'm just saying that we would expect there to be a modest effect and here's some data that indicates that might be the case. When I did the same calculation for presidential candidates and their home states the swing was much more robust; 7-8 net percentage points difference. Again, the kind of effect we would expect.
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Old 5th August 2020, 08:21 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Now with her eulogy of a CPUSA leader making thenews, Karen Bass is pretty much through.
She had to correct her defense for giving the speech at the Scientology center; turns out that the building was not in her district. She previously had claimed that was the only reason she attended.
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Old 5th August 2020, 08:24 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I'm certainly not saying that it's 100% certain; I'm just saying that we would expect there to be a modest effect and here's some data that indicates that might be the case. When I did the same calculation for presidential candidates and their home states the swing was much more robust; 7-8 net percentage points difference. Again, the kind of effect we would expect.
You may very well be right. But I think the overall influence on the majority of elections is negligible. Otherwise the Bush's, Trump and McCain do not pick running mates from red states.
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Old 5th August 2020, 09:42 AM   #92
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The question now is how many of these VP candidates would be illegal for Joe Biden to pick.


Quote:
Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who once dismissed white supremacy as a "hoax" and "not a real problem," falsely claimed on Monday that it was "probably illegal" for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to only consider women of color for the vice presidency.
...
"Biden has decided to hire exclusively on the basis of qualities that are both immutable and completely irrelevant race and gender and that's it," the Fox News host insisted. "'But wait a second,' you ask. 'Isn't that insulting? Isn't it wrong? Isn't it probably illegal?' 'Yes, it is,' all three of those things. But no one's pushing back against it, so Biden is doing it."
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Old 5th August 2020, 10:36 AM   #93
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I doubt it's illegal. I think it is an interesting case of affirmative action and hiring quotas in action. Tucker Carlson is an ass. But Biden is giving us some insight into what he thinks the real issues are, and what he thinks a good solution is.

I don't give a flying about Carlson's questions. My questions are:

If he picks a black woman for VP, is it because of her race and gender?

Does that mean her race and gender are what make her the best person for the job?

If so, then what exactly is the job? What exactly is the VP's job, anyway? How much do the two jobs actually overlap?

And what if he doesn't end up picking a black woman? Then what? Why did he say he would earlier? What problem was he trying to solve earlier? Why does he think it no longer needs to be solved?

Hypothesis: What he said earlier was a gambit to win votes for his nomination as the party's candidate. Now that his nomination is effectively guaranteed, he's free from that commitment and can consider other factors when trying to win the general election.
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Old 5th August 2020, 10:45 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's illegal. I think it is an interesting case of affirmative action and hiring quotas in action. Tucker Carlson is an ass. But Biden is giving us some insight into what he thinks the real issues are, and what he thinks a good solution is.

I don't give a flying about Carlson's questions. My questions are:

If he picks a black woman for VP, is it because of her race and gender?

Does that mean her race and gender are what make her the best person for the job?

If so, then what exactly is the job? What exactly is the VP's job, anyway? How much do the two jobs actually overlap?

And what if he doesn't end up picking a black woman? Then what? Why did he say he would earlier? What problem was he trying to solve earlier? Why does he think it no longer needs to be solved?

Hypothesis: What he said earlier was a gambit to win votes for his nomination as the party's candidate. Now that his nomination is effectively guaranteed, he's free from that commitment and can consider other factors when trying to win the general election.
If you were actually hiring someone (I mean as a private sector employer), it would be illegal under the Civil Rights act. For a vice presidential nomination, I'm pretty sure it doesn't apply. Not that Tucker Carlson would let a little thing like the truth get in the way of making his point. Personally, I wish that Biden hadn't promised to pick a woman. I think for something like Vice President, qualifications should be the primary factor. He hasn't actually promised an African-American woman, but I'll be a bit surprised if he doesn't pick one.

Normally, the vice presidential pick isn't all that important anyway, but given Biden's age and possibly declining health or mental faculties, it is considerably more likely that his VP will end up as president, or acting president than usual.

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Old 5th August 2020, 11:09 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
Normally, the vice presidential pick isn't all that important anyway, but given Biden's age and possibly declining health or mental faculties, it is considerably more likely that his VP will end up as president, or acting president than usual.

Back in 2008 my mother commented that she was basing her vote on the VP candidates, believing that McCain was too old and sickly to survive the stress of the position and Obama would be assassinated.
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Old 5th August 2020, 11:26 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
If you were actually hiring someone (I mean as a private sector employer), it would be illegal under the Civil Rights act. For a vice presidential nomination, I'm pretty sure it doesn't apply. Not that Tucker Carlson would let a little thing like the truth get in the way of making his point.
I think it raises an interesting question, though. We make it illegal in hiring because we believe that society benefits in some important way from prohibiting this kind of discriminatory practice. Obviously the legality of the VP pick is different. But what about the underlying ethics that inform the hiring law? Are those ethics really that different?

How would Biden complete the sentence, "I think it's wrong to hire someone because of their race and gender, but I don't think it's wrong to pick a VP the same way because ____"?

Quote:
Personally, I wish that Biden hadn't promised to pick a woman. I think for something like Vice President, qualifications should be the primary factor. He hasn't actually promised an African-American woman, but I'll be a bit surprised if he doesn't pick one.

Normally, the vice presidential pick isn't all that important anyway, but given Biden's age and possibly declining health or mental faculties, it is considerably more likely that his VP will end up as president, or acting president than usual.
I kind of think that if the planned outcome of a Biden win is the installation of his VP as president or acting president, then he probably shouldn't have campaigned at all. If we like Harris as an Emergency Backup Biden, then we should be electing her, not him.
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Old 5th August 2020, 11:28 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think it raises an interesting question, though. We make it illegal in hiring because we believe that society benefits in some important way from prohibiting this kind of discriminatory practice. Obviously the legality of the VP pick is different. But what about the underlying ethics that inform the hiring law? Are those ethics really that different?

How would Biden complete the sentence, "I think it's wrong to hire someone because of their race and gender, but I don't think it's wrong to pick a VP the same way because ____"?
You're... joking, right?

Discriminating against someone because you don't like their dark skin, gayness, or religion is the polar opposite than choosing a candidate specifically to increase diversity in your staff. That's... pretty basic stuff.
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Old 5th August 2020, 11:29 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's illegal. I think it is an interesting case of affirmative action and hiring quotas in action. Tucker Carlson is an ass. But Biden is giving us some insight into what he thinks the real issues are, and what he thinks a good solution is.
Does he really. Or is he perhaps just trying to follow in Obama's footsteps and have a diverse staff, since we live in 2020?
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Old 5th August 2020, 11:31 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think it raises an interesting question, though. We make it illegal in hiring because we believe that society benefits in some important way from prohibiting this kind of discriminatory practice. Obviously the legality of the VP pick is different. But what about the underlying ethics that inform the hiring law? Are those ethics really that different?

How would Biden complete the sentence, "I think it's wrong to hire someone because of their race and gender, but I don't think it's wrong to pick a VP the same way because ____"?


I kind of think that if the planned outcome of a Biden win is the installation of his VP as president or acting president, then he probably shouldn't have campaigned at all. If we like Harris as an Emergency Backup Biden, then we should be electing her, not him.
.....because I am not hiring this person, I am presenting them as a potential hire to the American people, and I think it is important that a person representing a race and gender that has never been represented in this office before be offered up as an option.

And, is Biden really campaigning all that much? - he is not even going to attend the "convention".

(but, yeah, he is just fine- fit as a fiddle!!)
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Old 5th August 2020, 11:33 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's illegal. I think it is an interesting case of affirmative action and hiring quotas in action. Tucker Carlson is an ass. But Biden is giving us some insight into what he thinks the real issues are, and what he thinks a good solution is.

I don't give a flying about Carlson's questions. My questions are:

If he picks a black woman for VP, is it because of her race and gender?

Does that mean her race and gender are what make her the best person for the job?

If so, then what exactly is the job? What exactly is the VP's job, anyway? How much do the two jobs actually overlap?

And what if he doesn't end up picking a black woman? Then what? Why did he say he would earlier? What problem was he trying to solve earlier? Why does he think it no longer needs to be solved?

Hypothesis: What he said earlier was a gambit to win votes for his nomination as the party's candidate. Now that his nomination is effectively guaranteed, he's free from that commitment and can consider other factors when trying to win the general election.
You doubt it's illegal? By what extreme stretch of the imagination could it possibly be illegal?

Of course, Trump pandering to the religious right by picking a fundy Christian is just fine.
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Old 5th August 2020, 12:29 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think it raises an interesting question, though. We make it illegal in hiring because we believe that society benefits in some important way from prohibiting this kind of discriminatory practice. Obviously the legality of the VP pick is different. But what about the underlying ethics that inform the hiring law? Are those ethics really that different?
As opposed to 230 years of having white males.

It should also be noted, that Biden isn't selecting a Vice President, the voters are.
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Old 5th August 2020, 01:14 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
You doubt it's illegal? By what extreme stretch of the imagination could it possibly be illegal?

Of course, Trump pandering to the religious right by picking a fundy Christian is just fine.
Rent free. Who is Biden pandering to, with his VP proposal?
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Old 5th August 2020, 01:24 PM   #103
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He's probably 'pandering to' everyone who sees no reason why a president's staff needs to be almost exclusively white males. Which covers a lot of different groups.
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Old 5th August 2020, 01:41 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
You're... joking, right?

Discriminating against someone because you don't like their dark skin, gayness, or religion is the polar opposite than choosing a candidate specifically to increase diversity in your staff. That's... pretty basic stuff.
You say polar opposite, I say two sides of the same coin. If you reject the more qualified candidate because they're white and male, in favor of a less qualified candidate because they're black and female, that's the exact same discrimination on the reverse as it is on the obverse.

Unless the qualification is literally "black and female". Which is just the "magical negro" stereotype, transplanted from literature and film into our politics. Where I predict it will do more harm than good.
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Old 5th August 2020, 01:43 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It should also be noted, that Biden isn't selecting a Vice President, the voters are.
The way I see it, voters tend to think of the VP as part of the candidate's total package. Some will select the candidate because of their VP pick. Some will select the candidate in spite of their VP pick. Some will select the candidate without caring about the VP pick. None will select the VP independently of their preference for the candidate.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:08 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And she's incredibly intelligent. I'd love to see her debate Trump sycophant Pence.
If Harris is the choice, there is zero chance of a VP debate. There's no way the Republicans would risk letting Pence face off against Harris.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:11 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
If Harris is the choice, there is zero chance of a VP debate. There's no way the Republicans would risk letting Pence face off against Harris.
If Harris is the choice she should do the presidential debates, too.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:12 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's illegal. I think it is an interesting case of affirmative action and hiring quotas in action. Tucker Carlson is an ass. But Biden is giving us some insight into what he thinks the real issues are, and what he thinks a good solution is.

I don't give a flying about Carlson's questions. My questions are:

If he picks a black woman for VP, is it because of her race and gender?

Does that mean her race and gender are what make her the best person for the job?

If so, then what exactly is the job? What exactly is the VP's job, anyway? How much do the two jobs actually overlap?

And what if he doesn't end up picking a black woman? Then what? Why did he say he would earlier? What problem was he trying to solve earlier? Why does he think it no longer needs to be solved?

Hypothesis: What he said earlier was a gambit to win votes for his nomination as the party's candidate. Now that his nomination is effectively guaranteed, he's free from that commitment and can consider other factors when trying to win the general election.
I highly doubt that Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, or Mike Pence were chosen because they were the most talented people available for the job.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:23 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I highly doubt that Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, or Mike Pence were chosen because they were the most talented people available for the job.
Depends on the job, doesn't it?

The way I see it, the VP has essentially three jobs:

1. Act as an Emergency Backup President

2. Preside over the Senate and cast tie-breaking votes.

3. Pick up votes for their running mate in some unquantifiable but assumed-to-be-qualitatively-true kind of way.

To this can be added a fourth non-essential job:

4. (optional) Act as a technical expert in some area the President deems necessary. Whether it's acting as an ambassador without portfolio, wrangling the military-industrial complex, keeping certain interest groups onside, etc.

None of the first three jobs requires much in the way of talent for the job at all, obviously. So unless Biden needs somebody for job number four, I doubt his pick will be particularly talented either. It's pretty typical of VP picks on both sides of the aisle. Look at Obama's choice, for example.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:28 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You say polar opposite, I say two sides of the same coin. If you reject the more qualified candidate because they're white and male, in favor of a less qualified candidate because they're black and female, that's the exact same discrimination on the reverse as it is on the obverse.

Unless the qualification is literally "black and female". Which is just the "magical negro" stereotype, transplanted from literature and film into our politics. Where I predict it will do more harm than good.
And I see that as a kind of whataboutism. Again, working for and against diversity are polar opposites. We'll just have to agree to disagree, I suppose.

Also, the 'turning down less qualified candidates' part is pretty unfounded.
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:31 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
None of the first three jobs requires much in the way of talent for the job at all, obviously.
Oh. What was your posts about less qualified candidates about, then? We are, as you say, talking about a person whose job is to pick up the phone every morning and ask if the president is dead, and then go back to sleep?
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Old 5th August 2020, 02:51 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
So, if a candidate wanted to use the VP slot for EC advantage on a state basis it would've to be state that is very close to make any difference. That's got to be a very short list at this point.

Frankly, I think it is more important to view the VP choice in how it impacts overall turnout. But I appreciate that you ran the numbers.
Oh, yeah, I was just talking about the VP effect on his/her home state. Obviously there is a lot more to the selection calculus than that, things like shoring up perceived weaknesses of the presidential candidate, or exploiting those of the opposition candidate.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:00 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
And I see that as a kind of whataboutism. Again, working for and against diversity are polar opposites. We'll just have to agree to disagree, I suppose.
The debate about whether affirmative action is inherently discriminatory, and whether this is acceptable in exchange for more diversity has been going on for a long time. I doubt we'll resolve it here. I think Biden's promise of a black woman VP does tell us something about where he stands on the question, though.

Also, I think a lot of people make a fetish of diversity for its own sake. If Biden and his running mate agree on ideology, agree on policy, agree on the problems of the day and the solutions to those problems, and the only difference between them is race and gender, then how diverse is the ticket, really?
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:04 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Oh. What was your posts about less qualified candidates about, then? We are, as you say, talking about a person whose job is to pick up the phone every morning and ask if the president is dead, and then go back to sleep?
I was talking about affirmative action and quota hiring generally. I agree that in the case of the VP, qualifications don't matter so much.

But I guarantee you, when Biden does announce his pick, he'll at least pay lip service to the idea that the job requires qualifications, and that his pick has them.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:05 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
None of the first three jobs requires much in the way of talent for the job at all, obviously. So unless Biden needs somebody for job number four, I doubt his pick will be particularly talented either. It's pretty typical of VP picks on both sides of the aisle. Look at Obama's choice, for example.
Biden was chosen to shore up a specific weakness of Obama in terms of foreign policy credibility. For that matter, Palin was chosen to exploit a perceived weakness of Obama among women after the bruising primary battle with Hillary.

Of course, shoring up Biden's weakness is a bit tricky. You want someone young, but does that just raise the question of whether that person can step in if Biden dies or becomes incapacitated? A younger Presidential candidate might assess the risk there as minimal, but Joe doesn't have that option.

That's part of why I see Harris as the most likely choice. If Joe passes on the baton, he'll be passing it to someone who's more from his (vanishing) wing of the party than with anybody else.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:13 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I was talking about affirmative action and quota hiring generally. I agree that in the case of the VP, qualifications don't matter so much.

But I guarantee you, when Biden does announce his pick, he'll at least pay lip service to the idea that the job requires qualifications, and that his pick has them.
Ok. Go back to the list in the poll and explain why those names aren't at least as qualified as half-governor Palin, Dan Quayle, Spiro T Agnew, or Mike Pence.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:14 PM   #117
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I wish he'd hurry up and pick Harris. The breathless speculation is just annoying.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:17 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Biden was chosen to shore up a specific weakness of Obama in terms of foreign policy credibility. For that matter, Palin was chosen to exploit a perceived weakness of Obama among women after the bruising primary battle with Hillary.

Of course, shoring up Biden's weakness is a bit tricky. You want someone young, but does that just raise the question of whether that person can step in if Biden dies or becomes incapacitated? A younger Presidential candidate might assess the risk there as minimal, but Joe doesn't have that option.

That's part of why I see Harris as the most likely choice. If Joe passes on the baton, he'll be passing it to someone who's more from his (vanishing) wing of the party than with anybody else.
One issue with calling out Biden's age as a weakness is that you're not saying, "these two, together, make a complete presidential package." Like with foreign policy or something like that. You're saying, "... and just in case your preferred candidate dies in office." Which is a totally different mood.
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Old 5th August 2020, 03:20 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Ok. Go back to the list in the poll and explain why those names aren't at least as qualified as half-governor Palin, Dan Quayle, Spiro T Agnew, or Mike Pence.
... Or else what?
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Old 5th August 2020, 04:31 PM   #120
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Rumor is it's between Rice and Harris.

Susan Rice would be perfect.
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