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Old 11th December 2017, 02:39 AM   #1001
Craig B
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If you were saying that bitcoin is headed for a serious price shock then I would agree with you.

However, you are comparing bitcoin with "flash in the pan" investments that sooner or later (invariably sooner) die and never get resurrected again. Bitcoin has already outlasted every one of these examples many times over and show no signs of dying.
The Dutch tulip industry is still big. Stocks are still traded in Wall Street. Houses are bought and sold in London.

Last edited by Craig B; 11th December 2017 at 02:56 AM.
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Old 11th December 2017, 04:13 AM   #1002
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
The Dutch tulip industry is still big. Stocks are still traded in Wall Street. Houses are bought and sold in London.
That's not very honest of you. Everybody knows that the tulip mania of 1636-1637, like the South Sea Bubble and the "Wall Street common stock delusion" were highly speculative rides that couldn't last. Tulips might be legitimately grown and traded today but that is neither here nor there.

The fact that properties and other assets rise and fall depending on the level speculation does not foretell the end of bitcoin.
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Old 11th December 2017, 05:16 AM   #1003
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That's not very honest of you. Everybody knows that the tulip mania of 1636-1637, like the South Sea Bubble and the "Wall Street common stock delusion" were highly speculative rides that couldn't last. Tulips might be legitimately grown and traded today but that is neither here nor there.

The fact that properties and other assets rise and fall depending on the level speculation does not foretell the end of bitcoin.
Any more than the asset price collapse of 1637 foretold the end of tulip horticulture, the collapse of 1929 foretold the end of the NY stock exchange, or the 2008 bursting of the credit bubble stopped housing being bought and sold in London.

Bitcoin is probably a bubble which will go pop soon. If it has a useful function it may survive the crash as a continuing brand. Or it may not. I don't know. But all the examples of booms and slumps I cited are of things that did survive the crashes induced by early speculation in their assets. So it was perfectly honest of me.
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Old 11th December 2017, 07:35 AM   #1004
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I was surprised that it managed to bounce back from the last bubble in it when it lost 80% of its value overnight. I expect this one to be at least similar to the one when MtGOX crashed out. Back in 2013.

It has certainly hung around longer and weathered far more minor mere 20% loss of value than I would have ever thought.
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Old 11th December 2017, 12:06 PM   #1005
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...bloomberg.html
Quote:
Report: 1,000 People Own 40 Percent of the Bitcoin Market
I find it ridiculous that bitcoin advocates complain about the federal reserve system or fractional reserve banking system as an unfair system and that somehow bitcoin is better in terms of fairness. It has some benefits such as privacy but that same benefit is also great for people who are not paying their fair share of taxes and by doing so are ripping us off. Are the bitcoin profiteers going to pay capital gains taxes on their "earnings"?
Bitcoin will end in tears.
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Old 11th December 2017, 12:21 PM   #1006
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...bloomberg.html

I find it ridiculous that bitcoin advocates complain about the federal reserve system or fractional reserve banking system as an unfair system and that somehow bitcoin is better in terms of fairness. It has some benefits such as privacy but that same benefit is also great for people who are not paying their fair share of taxes and by doing so are ripping us off. Are the bitcoin profiteers going to pay capital gains taxes on their "earnings"?
Bitcoin will end in tears.
Actually, there is almost no privacy in bitcoin. There are companies like chainalysis which do forensic analysis of the blockchain, in order to find out who has sold what, and when for a number of clients, including probably the IRS. Most bitcoin exchanges with the exception of bitfinex have to comply with "Know Your Customer" bank rules, which destroy anonymity and privacy. As for "fairness", a lot of people who have frontrun bitcoin in anticipation that it will be an important technology have made a lot of money already, whether or not it will be ultimately accepted by a large number of people. The fact of the matter is that there are only some 16 million bitcoins in existence, with a limit of 21 million, yet there is an unlimited supply of Federal Reserve Notes that elites can issue to deprive people of their property.

There is absolutely no question that the Federal Reserve is the largest scam in human history, and bitcoin is just a symptom.
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Old 11th December 2017, 12:46 PM   #1007
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I think the crash is near. A person who seems more scammish than ten Federal Reserves put together has just sent me an electronic message inviting me to "cash in on the Bitcoin wave", which he can teach me how to do, regardless of the current price of that crypto currency. This adviser gives no personal name or other identifiable details, but trades (from Dublin) in the name of "Bitcoin Millions". His email is decorated with photographs of sparsely clad young women seated on the deck of some kind of boat.

I don't think I'll bet the house on this offer, attractive though it may appear at first sight.

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Old 11th December 2017, 12:56 PM   #1008
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So if bitcoin did crash, how big a recession would that trigger?
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Old 11th December 2017, 01:02 PM   #1009
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
So if bitcoin did crash, how big a recession would that trigger?
Depends how much money has been removed from productive activities to be used for speculation in Bitcoin, and is at risk of vanishing. But perhaps there will be no discernible adverse effects at all.
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Old 11th December 2017, 01:59 PM   #1010
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
Actually, there is almost no privacy in bitcoin. There are companies like chainalysis which do forensic analysis of the blockchain, in order to find out who has sold what, and when for a number of clients, including probably the IRS. Most bitcoin exchanges with the exception of bitfinex have to comply with "Know Your Customer" bank rules, which destroy anonymity and privacy. As for "fairness", a lot of people who have frontrun bitcoin in anticipation that it will be an important technology have made a lot of money already, whether or not it will be ultimately accepted by a large number of people. The fact of the matter is that there are only some 16 million bitcoins in existence, with a limit of 21 million, yet there is an unlimited supply of Federal Reserve Notes that elites can issue to deprive people of their property.

There is absolutely no question that the Federal Reserve is the largest scam in human history, and bitcoin is just a symptom.
And yet US currency is and has been one of the most successful currencies the world has ever seen despite its shortcomings.
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Old 11th December 2017, 02:05 PM   #1011
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Depends how much money has been removed from productive activities to be used for speculation in Bitcoin, and is at risk of vanishing. But perhaps there will be no discernible adverse effects at all.
It seems most likely to effect some computer manufacturers and power companies.

Hmm I wonder how much this will impact money laundering.
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Old 11th December 2017, 07:41 PM   #1012
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Any more than the asset price collapse of 1637 foretold the end of tulip horticulture, the collapse of 1929 foretold the end of the NY stock exchange, or the 2008 bursting of the credit bubble stopped housing being bought and sold in London.

Bitcoin is probably a bubble which will go pop soon. If it has a useful function it may survive the crash as a continuing brand. Or it may not. I don't know. But all the examples of booms and slumps I cited are of things that did survive the crashes induced by early speculation in their assets. So it was perfectly honest of me.
I don't know what you are arguing.

Tulips an South sea are examples mentioned when one wants to prove that bitcoin will crash and never reach its heady highs again. Although you seem to imply a permanent crash you always seem to stop just short of confirming that this is your belief.

Like I said before, bitcoin is due for another price crash - probably a severe one. However, there is no indication that bitcoin will not recover from the next crash - nor of the many crashes that are sure to follow.
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Old 11th December 2017, 07:51 PM   #1013
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How is it functional when the smallest denomination is so large?
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Old 11th December 2017, 09:04 PM   #1014
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
How is it functional when the smallest denomination is so large?
Bitcoin is divisible into smaller units. The smallest unit is the "satoshi" (10-8 BTC) but other units likely to come into common useage are the mBTC (10-3 BTC) and μBTC (10-6 BTC).
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Old 11th December 2017, 09:09 PM   #1015
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
How is it functional when the smallest denomination is so large?
1 BTC is not the smallest denomination; the small denomination is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin, which sells for a bit over 0.01 cents currently. I guess that makes speculating on bitcoin easier in some ways than speculating on stock shares.
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Old 11th December 2017, 09:35 PM   #1016
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
Durrrr, if you don't want your fiat currency I'll take it durrrr.
I guess fiat currency isn't so worthless after all.

Did you invest in gold when all the gold bugs were predicting doom when Obama got in power?
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Old 11th December 2017, 10:12 PM   #1017
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Originally Posted by Thabiguy View Post
1 BTC is not the smallest denomination; the small denomination is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin, which sells for a bit over 0.01 cents currently. I guess that makes speculating on bitcoin easier in some ways than speculating on stock shares.
Interesting. That makes more sense.
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Old 11th December 2017, 10:35 PM   #1018
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't know what you are arguing.

Tulips an South sea are examples mentioned when one wants to prove that bitcoin will crash and never reach its heady highs again. Although you seem to imply a permanent crash you always seem to stop just short of confirming that this is your belief.

Like I said before, bitcoin is due for another price crash - probably a severe one. However, there is no indication that bitcoin will not recover from the next crash - nor of the many crashes that are sure to follow.
I think it likely in the event of a crash, that

Bitcoin may survive, but
Much or most of the value invested in it at the time of the crash will be liquidated and never be recovered in real terms by the speculators. They may suffer an irretrievable loss. Any whose positions are leveraged will be most severely affected, like the speculators holding "on margin" in 1928-29, who were "sold out" by their creditors.

If Bitcoin is to have usefulness as a currency it must acquire reasonable stability and predictability of purchasing power, and of the exchange value its units represent. That excludes its use as a medium of wild speculation.
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Old 11th December 2017, 10:53 PM   #1019
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Bitcoin may survive, but
Much or most of the value invested in it at the time of the crash will be liquidated and never be recovered in real terms by the speculators.
That is what they said after MtGox was hacked in 2011. That is what they said after the crisis in Cyprus ended in 2013/4. That is what they said after MtGox folded. That is what they have been saying after every single price peak.

One of the more recent predictions seen on this forum was that when the price of bitcoin was $500, its value would fall to $150 and would remain around that value for the foreseeable future (needless to say, we don't see that poster around anymore).

Who knows? maybe this time the price will fall and stay down for ever more (stopped clock and all that). However, I seriously doubt that yours is the prediction that will stick. You are just the latest in a long line of failed prophets.

Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
If Bitcoin is to have usefulness as a currency ....
Who says it has to "have usefulness as a currency"?
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Old 12th December 2017, 01:25 AM   #1020
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Who says it has to "have usefulness as a currency"?
Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something, but I see what you mean. This from CNBC
An early bitcoin investor said Monday the digital currency can run higher, but the hype has far outpaced its usability.

"I think in the short run it can run up a lot more," Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." But "it's no longer a cryptocurrency. It's just a game of hot potato at this point, and games of hot potatoes can go on for a long time, and lots of people can pump a lot of money into it and it might go on for even decades. But as far as its [being] used as money, the developers behind that have destroyed that at this point."
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Old 12th December 2017, 03:20 AM   #1021
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something,
It is useful for large scale transactions, store of value and speculation, all of which can be conducted anonymously if you know what you are doing.

But that has nothing to do with bitcoin being a "currency".

Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
but I see what you mean.
No you don't.
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Old 12th December 2017, 06:31 AM   #1022
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Bitcoin was one of the topics of conversation in the pub last night. No one seemed to know what it was about but a couple of blokes were going to get in on it. It was a 'sure thing'.
Someone's brother who is ' in computers' knew all about it and says to get in, like him.
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Old 12th December 2017, 06:41 AM   #1023
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is useful for large scale transactions, store of value and speculation, all of which can be conducted anonymously if you know what you are doing.

But that has nothing to do with bitcoin being a "currency".


No you don't.
I'll let you argue with https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp about whether Bitcoin is a currency, and I'll ignore the rest of your post until you see fit to explain it.
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Old 12th December 2017, 07:23 AM   #1024
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something, but I see what you mean. This from CNBC
An early bitcoin investor said Monday the digital currency can run higher, but the hype has far outpaced its usability.

"I think in the short run it can run up a lot more," Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." But "it's no longer a cryptocurrency. It's just a game of hot potato at this point, and games of hot potatoes can go on for a long time, and lots of people can pump a lot of money into it and it might go on for even decades. But as far as its [being] used as money, the developers behind that have destroyed that at this point."
That seems to be the problem, it is a commodity with no fundamental utility to set a base price that speculators can drive up. As it is going to crash again probably soon like in the past when it lost 80% of its value overnight.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:21 AM   #1025
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something, but I see what you mean. This from CNBC
An early bitcoin investor said Monday the digital currency can run higher, but the hype has far outpaced its usability.

Bitcoin is useful for moving wealth outside of repressive government regimes and capital controls. Does anyone actually read the posts in this forum?

Quote:

"I think in the short run it can run up a lot more," Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." But "it's no longer a cryptocurrency. It's just a game of hot potato at this point, and games of hot potatoes can go on for a long time, and lots of people can pump a lot of money into it and it might go on for even decades. But as far as its [being] used as money, the developers behind that have destroyed that at this point."[/indent]
I watched the Ver interview. In all likelihood, he is just talking his book. My friend the bitcoin whale told me that Ver has conspired with a bitcoin miner in China to pump Bitcoin Cash, which due to the fork offers them a lot of control. I don't fully understand the technical reasons why, but I can find out.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 AM   #1026
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
Bitcoin is useful for moving wealth outside of repressive government regimes and capital controls. Does anyone actually read the posts in this forum?
If it is useful for that purpose I suggest that it deserves to be called a "currency".
Quote:
I watched the Ver interview. In all likelihood, he is just talking his book. My friend the bitcoin whale told me that Ver has conspired with a bitcoin miner in China to pump Bitcoin Cash, which due to the fork offers them a lot of control. I don't fully understand the technical reasons why, but I can find out.
When you come to acquire that understanding, I would be grateful if you could enlighten me on this subject.
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Old 12th December 2017, 09:48 AM   #1027
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
I'll let you argue with https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp about whether Bitcoin is a currency, and I'll ignore the rest of your post until you see fit to explain it.
The question was whether bitcoin should have "usefulness as a currency" - not whether it meets the technical definition of "currency" according to some dictionary or web site.

I prefer to adhere to the mathematics of it and leave these semantic arguments to others.
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Old 12th December 2017, 10:44 AM   #1028
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The question was whether bitcoin should have "usefulness as a currency" - not whether it meets the technical definition of "currency" according to some dictionary or web site.

I prefer to adhere to the mathematics of it and leave these semantic arguments to others.
No you don't. You're telling fibs. because you have written that
It is useful for large scale transactions, store of value and speculation, all of which can be conducted anonymously if you know what you are doing.

But that has nothing to do with bitcoin being a "currency".
No "mathematics" there that I can see.
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Old 12th December 2017, 10:57 AM   #1029
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
No you don't. You're telling fibs.
What do you want to get from me? Do you want to discuss whether bitcoin is issued by a central authority or whether you can pay taxes with it or something?

I would say that something is a "currency" if it is widely used as a currency. Bitcoin currently doesn't meet that standard. That doesn't mean that bitcoin is useless.
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Old 12th December 2017, 11:23 AM   #1030
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
What do you want to get from me? Do you want to discuss whether bitcoin is issued by a central authority or whether you can pay taxes with it or something?

I would say that something is a "currency" if it is widely used as a currency. Bitcoin currently doesn't meet that standard. That doesn't mean that bitcoin is useless.
What then is it useful for? Are not sellers of various goods and services accepting it as a medium of payment? I haven't raised the issue of whether it is issued by a central authority or whether you can pay taxes with it. Are these defining features of currency in your understanding of the term?
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Old 12th December 2017, 11:47 AM   #1031
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Now you are just playing dumb.
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Old 12th December 2017, 11:55 AM   #1032
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Now you are just playing dumb.
My question was serious. If you don't want to respond, that's your right.
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Old 12th December 2017, 12:13 PM   #1033
psionl0
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
My question was serious. If you don't want to respond, that's your right.
I gave straight forward answers to your questions. Your response was to paraphrase your questions as if I didn't.

That is a game that I am not interested in playing.
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Old 12th December 2017, 12:26 PM   #1034
Craig B
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I gave straight forward answers to your questions. Your response was to paraphrase your questions as if I didn't.

That is a game that I am not interested in playing.
It is not a game, but it's up to you whether you respond to posts or not.

This looks like a bubble, and I will be most surprised if it turns out to be anything different.
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Old 12th December 2017, 04:52 PM   #1035
The_Animus
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It seems to me that the energy usage is the only real reason bitcoin will eventually die

If another crypto currency can get as big as bitcoin without that drawback I think it would be unstoppable
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Old 12th December 2017, 06:18 PM   #1036
psionl0
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
This looks like a bubble, and I will be most surprised if it turns out to be anything different.
I see. All this silliness about whether bitcoin was a currency or not was just an attempt to divert attention away from post #1019 where I said that bitcoin was probably in a bubble but it will most likely recover from the next price shock - again.
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Old 12th December 2017, 10:43 PM   #1037
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
It seems to me that the energy usage is the only real reason bitcoin will eventually die
Increasing energy costs and diminishing block rewards are more likely to see mining level off than to "kill" bitcoin.

Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
If another crypto currency can get as big as bitcoin without that drawback I think it would be unstoppable
"Proof of Stake" and "consenus" are two alternatives that don't require escalating power usage.

"Consensus" as used in the Ripple network seems to be the best alternative but it doesn't address how to allocate block rewards.
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Old 13th December 2017, 02:12 AM   #1038
Thabiguy
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
It seems to me that the energy usage is the only real reason bitcoin will eventually die

If another crypto currency can get as big as bitcoin without that drawback I think it would be unstoppable
I don't think bitcoin needs to ever die. Let's say there is a big crash - bigger than any crash before. The price of a bitcoin falls to $0.1. The internet is flooded with articles about people who have lost fortunes, and pull their hair out over having bought it. Surely that means bitcoin has failed miserably and will never recover, right?

Well, in my opinion, no. Even if all that happens, there is no reason why bitcoin can't rise all over again. And it doesn't even need to come up with a new narrative - the promoters can just keep promising the same old thing, that it will one day become universally accepted decentralized digital currency.

And it doesn't matter for how long it has failed to achieve that. Has homeopathy ever produced an effective cure for anything? Has any spiritualist ever been able to contact a dead person? Of course not - but that's not going to deter the customers. As long as the promise is attractive, people will keep flocking to it.

Bitcoin is a game, a novel way of gambling. Crashes mean nothing; losing money has never dissuaded people from gambling, and failure to fulfill promises has never dissuaded people from following prophets - as long as they keep promising. And since there isn't a single central authority that could die, or be arrested, or take all the money and disappear for good, bitcoin may stay around indefinitely, peaking and crashing in ever-merry cycles. Just as long as people find the promise of replacing the crooked financial "system" (and making some effortless money while at it) appealing.
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Old 13th December 2017, 02:39 AM   #1039
Craig B
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I see. All this silliness about whether bitcoin was a currency or not was just an attempt to divert attention away from post #1019 where I said that bitcoin was probably in a bubble but it will most likely recover from the next price shock - again.
What are you on about now? The question whether you think bitcoin is a currency or not, and why, is both relevant and interesting to why you think it will survive, which it may. Is its function that of a currency? If not, what is it? These questions are relevant both to its real value, if it has one, and its survival potential - as must surely be evident.

The definition of a bubble is whether current investors in the affected asset stand to suffer irretrievable loss of a significant part of their investment, not whether the brand will survive. I think people who have bought Bitcoin at say $15,000 are at risk of suffering such loss. I would be surprised if they come out unscathed.
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Old 13th December 2017, 04:03 AM   #1040
Craig B
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Originally Posted by Thabiguy View Post
I don't think bitcoin needs to ever die. Let's say there is a big crash - bigger than any crash before. The price of a bitcoin falls to $0.1. The internet is flooded with articles about people who have lost fortunes, and pull their hair out over having bought it. Surely that means bitcoin has failed miserably and will never recover, right?

Well, in my opinion, no. Even if all that happens, there is no reason why bitcoin can't rise all over again. And it doesn't even need to come up with a new narrative - the promoters can just keep promising the same old thing, that it will one day become universally accepted decentralized digital currency.

And it doesn't matter for how long it has failed to achieve that. Has homeopathy ever produced an effective cure for anything? Has any spiritualist ever been able to contact a dead person? Of course not - but that's not going to deter the customers. As long as the promise is attractive, people will keep flocking to it.

Bitcoin is a game, a novel way of gambling. Crashes mean nothing; losing money has never dissuaded people from gambling, and failure to fulfill promises has never dissuaded people from following prophets - as long as they keep promising. And since there isn't a single central authority that could die, or be arrested, or take all the money and disappear for good, bitcoin may stay around indefinitely, peaking and crashing in ever-merry cycles. Just as long as people find the promise of replacing the crooked financial "system" (and making some effortless money while at it) appealing.
From "CIty AM"
You hear the dreaded words: “this time it’s different”.

During every asset bubble, you will find scores of professionals telling you that it isn’t a bubble; this time, it’s a real and important forward step in technology.

This is very confused. The fact that there’s a genuine step forward doesn’t mean it can’t be a bubble.

There was a railroad bubble back in the 1870s in which thousands of small investors were wiped out. That didn’t mean that the railroad wasn’t the future of transport. And the dotcom bubble of the 1990s didn’t mean that the internet had no future.
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