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Old 17th June 2020, 01:18 PM   #601
The_Animus
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.

That is why Buffet and Munger see rat poison.
Oh look, another 'bitcoin is surely doomed this time' prediction by Samson.

Just keep them coming and if you live long enough you might accidentally get it right.
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Old 17th June 2020, 01:38 PM   #602
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THE TRUE PURPOSE OF BITCOIN

The Sodinokibi / REvil extortionists that struck Lion recently, encrypting and exfiltrating the beverage giant's corporate data want US$800,000 ($1.24 million) in ransom, a sum that will double in two days.

The Herald has viewed the ransom note which points to a hidden transaction site hosted on a Russian network where victims are asked to pay the REvil / Sodinokibi criminals.

READ MORE:
• Beer shortages possible after Lion brewery shut down following cyber attack
• Lion ransomware attack: Speights back online, but supply problems continue for other beers
• Lion: Ransomware attack causing significant problems
• Cyber attack at Lion brewery disrupts supply of beer

To obtain decryptor software that the ransomware criminals promise will work and not delete or corrupt the scrambled files, Lion is required to buy $800,000 worth of the Monero cryptocurrency, either directly via an exchange, or by first obtaining Bitcoin.

Monero uses an obfuscated public ledger, making it difficult to see the sender of the funds, and the destination and amount of the transaction.

The transaction site offers a live chat window for contacting the ransomware criminals, which contains a message threatening the publication of the corporate data copied.

"This is while hidden post, but it will be published after time expired. If you don't pay anyway, we publish download link for all your confidential files.

"You will lose reputation for clients, get different penals because you didn't protected personal data, your competitors or other people from public will use your financial data in their interests. If you don't want that, I recommend you pay money in time.


Behind paywall, the New Zealand Herald should not paywall this. Bitcoin and all cryptos should be made illegal on New Zealand based servers as the true horror of cryptos is exposed.
And it is true, New Zealand pubs are devoid of stock.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12340812

Last edited by Samson; 17th June 2020 at 01:40 PM.
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Old 17th June 2020, 03:06 PM   #603
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I know the distribution manager for Lion and his life is a nightmare.
Thank you Satoshi Nakamoto and the hideous entourage who are wiping out the planet and the pleasures of existence.

Only a fast descent to intrinsic value, zero, for all cryptos, will save cyberspace now.

Last edited by Samson; 17th June 2020 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 17th June 2020, 04:54 PM   #604
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I know the distribution manager for Lion and his life is a nightmare.
Thank you Satoshi Nakamoto and the hideous entourage who are wiping out the planet and the pleasures of existence.

Only a fast descent to intrinsic value, zero, for all cryptos, will save cyberspace now.
Pls. Ransomware is here for years. And there is no warranty you get anything if you pay. When you get ransomware, you treat is as data loss. You restore from backups, and go on. Usually it's not the servers, which are the problem. Those are usually backed up. The problem is all the workstations and executive notebooks. These usually are not backed up, and bunch of interns will spend days to reinstall them all.
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Old 17th June 2020, 05:35 PM   #605
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Wink

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Pls. Ransomware is here for years. And there is no warranty you get anything if you pay. When you get ransomware, you treat is as data loss. You restore from backups, and go on. Usually it's not the servers, which are the problem. Those are usually backed up. The problem is all the workstations and executive notebooks. These usually are not backed up, and bunch of interns will spend days to reinstall them all.
Thanks I'll let him know.
This will brighten his day.😉
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Old 17th June 2020, 05:54 PM   #606
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The estimated cost to mine a bitcoin varies from web site to web site.
Weasel words. Even if every website published precisely accurate figures (an obvious impossibility given that not all Bitcoin miners are registered companies who have to declare their costs) since costs vary over time the figures are expected to vary. That doesn't justify your assertion that the numbers have ZERO reliability.

Quote:
It should be so simple. Given the estimated total average power being used globally to mine for bitcoins, you multiply that by 1/6 hours and divide by 6.25 bitcoins to get the number of KWh needed to mine a single bitcoin.
Simple, but not so 'reliable'. The estimated total average power being used globally to mine for bitcoins is just that - an estimate. There is no reason to believe it is more accurate than other methods (eg. getting cost information directly from miners).

Quote:
But do you think that any web site will give you raw data like that? No. All you get is pre-digested conclusions.
Conclusions like "the Antminer S9... Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is $8206.64"? Is that data not 'raw' enough for you?

Quote:
You are making this efficient market hypothesis backwards. The cost of mining bitcoin depends on the price of bitcoin (or its perceived long term price). If the price of bitcoin rises then more miners will find it profitable to join the fray thus pushing up the production cost and if the price of bitcoin falls then some existing miners will find that producing bitcoin is unprofitable and drop out thus lowering the production cost for other miners.
The proximate cost of mining Bitcoin is the difficulty level. This has nothing to do with the price.

A short introduction to Bitcoin mining difficulty
Quote:
The mining difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks which are approximately 2 weeks considering an average of 10 minutes per block. Bitcoin algorithm provides this adjustment very easily. If the previous 2016 blocks took more or less than 2 weeks to find, the difficulty is increased or decreased in the proportion of the amount of time difference to the 2 weeks.

This difficulty needs to be adjusted because there are variations on how much computing power, i.e. the total hash rate exists in the Bitcoin network. More miners contributing, bigger the total hash rate and the need to increase the difficulty...

However, in 2018 we are seeing a rather strange behavior. Although Bitcoin price has dropped quite a lot, more than 80% from the all-time high, the mining difficulty has been keeping to rise like crazy! The hash rate (and total mining power) grows 3.5x in 2018 and at the same time, the price has dropped 80%.

This fact leads to the worst moment in the history of Bitcoin mining. Even the recent drop of the mining difficulty is not enough to keep up with the price drop and keep decent profitability level to miners.
And it's happening again.

Bitcoin has just posted its biggest mining difficulty increase in nearly 2.5 years.
Quote:
The 14.95% rise is the biggest difficulty jump since January 2018, which saw a larger spike on the back of the 2017 crypto market bull run, data compiled by BTC.com shows.

As a result, miners contributing hashing power to the network are now facing the fourth-most difficult two-week mining period in Bitcoin’s history.

“With the value of hashrate set to decrease to $0.075 cents per TH/s, not many of the existing, old-gen equipment will turn back on,” said Ethan Vera, co-founder and CFO of the Luxor mining pool. “New hashrate coming onto the market will likely be driven by new-gen and high-efficiency machines.”

Kevin Zhang, director of blockchain strategies at New York-based bitcoin mining-power plant hybrid Greenidge Generation, offered a similar view, saying the firm’s strategy is to stay competitive by procuring and running the latest-generation equipment.

Despite limited price action, we expect the hash rate to continue rising in the near term as more older generation miners go offline and newer generation ones come online,” he said.
Miners get more advanced hardware that processes the blockchain faster, causing the difficulty level to rise. This is the reason mining costs go up. When the price goes down these more efficient miners are still working, so the difficulty rate stays high until they stop running because the price has dropped below cost. In theory the cost and price should converge, but in practice the feedback delays and external factors (improved tech, changing power prices etc.) can cause the opposite as the feedback turns positive or chaotic.
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File Type: jpg bitcoin difficulty 2008.jpg (16.3 KB, 3 views)
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Old 17th June 2020, 11:43 PM   #607
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Conclusions like "the Antminer S9... Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is $8206.64"? Is that data not 'raw' enough for you?
Certainly not! It is just a single data point and provided none of the raw data that lead to this conclusion.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The proximate cost of mining Bitcoin is the difficulty level. This has nothing to do with the price.
And what do you think drives this difficulty level (attracts more miners)?
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:42 PM   #608
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crypto increasingly used for speculation not store of value

Crypto Research Report Predicts $397K Bitcoin Price by 2030
Quote:
“We believe that Bitcoin is still at the very start of its adoption curve,” the report states. “The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 suggests that Bitcoin has penetrated less than 0.44% of its total addressable markets [worth $212 trillion]. If this penetration manages to reach 10%, its non-discounted utility price should reach nearly $400,000.”

The ‎Liechtenstein-based research group analyzed cryptocurrencies based on their target addressable market, or TAM, a metric used “to estimate a cryptoasset’s implied future price.” According to the report, TAMs for cryptocurrencies include remittance, tax evasion, offshore accounts, store of value, online transactions, micropayments, crypto trading, gaming, online gambling, consumer loans, reserve currency and others.

The report also observed on- and off-chain velocity metrics for altcoins and concluded that the “growth in the number of speculative transactions on exchanges is faster than growth of utility transactions to buy goods and services.”...

“High velocity on-chain and low velocity off-chain suggests that crypto assets are becoming increasingly used for speculation and not for store of value.”
Half the price it was 3 years ago, but don't despair. Keep HODLing those Bitcoins and that pot o' gold will soon be yours. Just another year er, I mean 5 years, and everybody will be rich!
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Old 1st July 2020, 11:37 AM   #609
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Crypto Research Report Predicts $397K Bitcoin Price by 2030

Half the price it was 3 years ago, but don't despair. Keep HODLing those Bitcoins and that pot o' gold will soon be yours. Just another year er, I mean 5 years, and everybody will be rich!
Bookmark that link. It predicts a price of $19,000 by the end of the year (less than 6 months to go) which would mean that this time it took only 2 years to regain its peak price.

Of course, that article is just so much crystal ball gazing and if any part of the article is suspect then all of it is suspect - including the parts you highlighted.
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Old 1st July 2020, 01:55 PM   #610
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There has been very close correlation with wall street for 2020. This is new and maybe suggests institutional uptake?
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Old 1st July 2020, 03:12 PM   #611
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Bookmark that link. It predicts a price of $19,000 by the end of the year (less than 6 months to go) which would mean that this time it took only 2 years to regain its peak price.

Of course, that article is just so much crystal ball gazing and if any part of the article is suspect then all of it is suspect - including the parts you highlighted.
Sorry but I have to disagree. They made projections based on a presumption of increased market penetration. That may not happen, but the parts I highlighted are already happening.

Originally Posted by Samson
There has been very close correlation with wall street for 2020. This is new and maybe suggests institutional uptake?
It suggests that Bitcoin has become just another vehicle for speculation. If so then it's a real shame, because it means Bitcoin has become part of the system that its inventor was trying to break free of. It also means the dream of it being 'the people's currency' is over.
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Old 1st July 2020, 03:17 PM   #612
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
It suggests that Bitcoin has become just another vehicle for speculation. If so then it's a real shame, because it means Bitcoin has become part of the system that its inventor was trying to break free of. It also means the dream of it being 'the people's currency' is over.
Bitcoin was meant as way to break free of speculation ? How was that supposed to work ?
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Old 1st July 2020, 03:27 PM   #613
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
There has been very close correlation with wall street for 2020. This is new and maybe suggests institutional uptake?
What does algo say?
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Old 2nd July 2020, 02:47 AM   #614
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Bitcoin was meant as way to break free of speculation ?
That's not what I said. But the destabilization of fiat currencies caused by speculation was one of the things Bitcoin was supposed to be free of.

Bitcoin was invented in response to the 2008 finance crisis, which was largely caused by speculation in US housing markets. The inventor apparently naively thought that a highly deflationary 'currency' that governments can't control would not be seized upon by those same speculators. Or perhaps he knew exactly what he was doing, and had figured out a way to get rich by attracting them.

Quote:
How was that supposed to work ?
Good question. If 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was a typical libertarian anarchist type then he may simply have misunderstood the nature of his creation. Perhaps - despite the rhetoric about needing to counter the 'debasement' of fiat currencies by governments 'printing money' - he didn't think it would actually take off. Perhaps he mined those 1 million Bitcoins just to give the blockchain something to work with, not thinking about how their 'value' would increase if people actually started using it. I bet he understands now though, because he just 'printed' himself a fortune!
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Old 2nd July 2020, 04:56 AM   #615
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I actually think profit for Nakamoto was the main reason for creation of BTC. The rest of the lore is just advertisement.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 05:40 AM   #616
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I actually think profit for Nakamoto was the main reason for creation of BTC. The rest of the lore is just advertisement.
Is there evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has spent any bitcoins?
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Old 2nd July 2020, 05:56 AM   #617
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
Is there evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has spent any bitcoins?
There were some rumors, but AFAIK no. I guess he lost his passwords
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Old 2nd July 2020, 09:33 AM   #618
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I actually think profit for Nakamoto was the main reason for creation of BTC. The rest of the lore is just advertisement.
Not only are you reading the mind of somebody you don't even know exists but you are also attributing psychic powers to that person.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 12:12 PM   #619
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Bitcoin sucks.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 01:24 PM   #620
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Bitcoin won't be dying off anytime soon. When it does it will be because a better crypto took it's place.

I'm curious how many people participating in this thread have actually bought/mined bitcoin or used it to purchase something.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 01:58 PM   #621
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Not only are you reading the mind of somebody you don't even know exists but you are also attributing psychic powers to that person.
I don't have to read mind to have opinions about somebody else's motive. But yeah, the author of BTC indeed needed psychic powers. Psychic powers of programming.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 07:27 PM   #622
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I'm curious how many people participating in this thread have actually bought/mined bitcoin or used it to purchase something.
I did try panning for gold once (in 1970), but apart from that haven't mined anything. Nor have I ever bought 'crypto', stocks, or bonds. However I have used a few million dollars worth of fiat currency to purchase things.

You may have heard of it - very easy and fast transactions, stable price, secure, efficient, trustworthy and accepted pretty much everywhere. Also comes in a physical form for those times when you just want to make a quick payment without fiddling with electronic devices.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 08:01 PM   #623
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Not only are you reading the mind of somebody you don't even know exists but you are also attributing psychic powers to that person.
We don't even know if he is a person. One thing is pretty certain though, he isn't who he pretends to be. So we know he is a fraud.

But was Bitcoin originally intended to be a scam? We may never know, but I suspect not. Bitcoin 'fixes' all the things libertarian anarchists said was wrong with fiat. This suggests that the designer was himself a libertarian anarchist - and so did not understand what he was creating. He was so focused on trying to get free of 'evil' government fiat that he didn't consider how evil an anti-government currency could be.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 08:06 PM   #624
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oops! dup deleted
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Old 2nd July 2020, 10:35 PM   #625
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I don't have to read mind to have opinions about somebody else's motive. But yeah, the author of BTC indeed needed psychic powers. Psychic powers of programming.
[Note: I don't own bitcoin (or fraction thereof), have never owned bitcoin (or fraction thereof), and will probably never own bitcoin (or fraction thereof)]

Have you read the paper where Satoshi Nakamoto presented the theory of the blockchain and introduced bitcoin? The author seemed quite sincere and earnest in their intent to solve the 'double-spending problem' via blockchain and for people to actually use bitcoin as currency to buy pizza or whatever. I can't imagine how he could have predicted that speculation on bitcoin would lead to the bitcoin purchase price of a pizza in the past being equivalent to millions of dollars later.

Last edited by Scopedog; 2nd July 2020 at 11:17 PM.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 10:51 PM   #626
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I don't have to read mind to have opinions about somebody else's motive. But yeah, the author of BTC indeed needed psychic powers. Psychic powers of programming.
A computer geek would have put the code out there (and mined lots of the bitcoin while the mining was cheap) even if bitcoin never amounted to anything more than an intellectual curiosity.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 05:15 AM   #627
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
[Note: I don't own bitcoin (or fraction thereof), have never owned bitcoin (or fraction thereof), and will probably never own bitcoin (or fraction thereof)]

Have you read the paper where Satoshi Nakamoto presented the theory of the blockchain and introduced bitcoin? The author seemed quite sincere and earnest in their intent to solve the 'double-spending problem' via blockchain and for people to actually use bitcoin as currency to buy pizza or whatever. I can't imagine how he could have predicted that speculation on bitcoin would lead to the bitcoin purchase price of a pizza in the past being equivalent to millions of dollars later.
I'm not saying he predicted it would make him 44th most rich person on the planet. I'm saying that this might have been just idea how to make SOME money. Even when BTC was one dollar, the project paid for itself nicely.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 05:19 AM   #628
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
A computer geek would have put the code out there (and mined lots of the bitcoin while the mining was cheap) even if bitcoin never amounted to anything more than an intellectual curiosity.
That's exactly what BTC was for years. Intellectual curiosity.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 09:49 AM   #629
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Even when BTC was one dollar, the project paid for itself nicely.
It would be years before bitcoin would be worth a cent - let alone a dollar.

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
That's exactly what BTC was for years. Intellectual curiosity.
Exactly.

Sure, the inventor may have thought that it would be nice if bitcoin became worth money (and was maybe entranced with the idea of a currency that was beyond manipulation) but you can be sure that it wasn't his primary motivation.

For a true geek, being able to come up with an answer to the Byzantine Generals problem would be a reward unto itself.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 10:29 AM   #630
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I see bitcoin as a very simple video game implementation from a sophisticated, innovative engine (called blockchain). It's so simple that the first party user doesn't even play it- their computer plays it and collects tokens as it wins. An interested third party user can exchange something (usually fiat currency but sometimes a good or service) for a password granting exclusive access to a token or fraction of a token. Bitcoin is both stupid and visionary. Why would anyone want these tokens earned by the computer player? Why do people want hats or whatever in online games? Bitcoin evolved into a tulip bulb investment simulator. I'm sure this analogy can be improved.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 12:49 PM   #631
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
I see bitcoin as a very simple video game implementation from a sophisticated, innovative engine (called blockchain). It's so simple that the first party user doesn't even play it- their computer plays it and collects tokens as it wins. An interested third party user can exchange something (usually fiat currency but sometimes a good or service) for a password granting exclusive access to a token or fraction of a token. Bitcoin is both stupid and visionary. Why would anyone want these tokens earned by the computer player? Why do people want hats or whatever in online games? Bitcoin evolved into a tulip bulb investment simulator. I'm sure this analogy can be improved.
There is no improving that analogy. It sounds like just so much shroomery.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 02:21 PM   #632
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
I did try panning for gold once (in 1970), but apart from that haven't mined anything. Nor have I ever bought 'crypto', stocks, or bonds. However I have used a few million dollars worth of fiat currency to purchase things.

You may have heard of it - very easy and fast transactions, stable price, secure, efficient, trustworthy and accepted pretty much everywhere. Also comes in a physical form for those times when you just want to make a quick payment without fiddling with electronic devices.
I have heard of fiat currencies. There are a lot of different ones. Some used far more than others. Over time they have been prone to many of the things you highlighted earlier such as offshore accounts, tax evasion, gambling, consumer loans, and speculation. I've heard there has been instances of fiat money becoming worthless practically overnight. I've also heard that these currencies and the exchanges between them have been manipulated in the past for personal profit at the expense of everyone else.

Mind you, I'm not against fiat currency, nor am I a bitcoin cheerleader. In fact from what I've seen maybe just one person in this thread could be reasonably considered a bitcoin cheerleader. I just find the constant predictions of its death and some of the arguments made against it to be a bit over the top.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 06:56 PM   #633
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I just find the constant predictions of its death and some of the arguments made against it to be a bit over the top.
Bitcoin as originally envisaged is pretty much dead. It has become just another 'asset class', buoyed up by speculators looking to make money from nothing. Nobody talks about it being used as a cash replacement anymore, because it has failed in that role. As a means of getting free from the evil government it is a double-edged sword - unstable, rife with fraud and criminal behavior, and no protection for victims (libertarians probably think that's fine, but Bitcoin won't achieve the wider adoption they yearn for without fixing these flaws).

Quote:
I have heard of fiat currencies. There are a lot of different ones. Some used far more than others. Over time they have been prone to many of the things you highlighted earlier such as offshore accounts, tax evasion, gambling, consumer loans, and speculation. I've heard there has been instances of fiat money becoming worthless practically overnight. I've also heard that these currencies and the exchanges between them have been manipulated in the past for personal profit at the expense of everyone else.
All true, but with one big difference - oversight. Most governments have laws against abuse of their currencies, and constantly crack down on criminal activities. Fiat money becoming worthless overnight is rare, generally being the result of a failed state (which has more than just monetary problems).

Bitcoin is only backed by the 'invisible hand' which never seems to be around when you need it. Bitcoin does nothing about stopping criminal activity - it actually enables it. Bitcoin has always been far more volatile than any major currency, making it a frustrating medium of exchange (but great for speculation).

Originally Posted by Scopedog
I see bitcoin as a very simple video game implementation from a sophisticated, innovative engine (called blockchain)... Bitcoin is both stupid and visionary. Why would anyone want these tokens earned by the computer player? Why do people want hats or whatever in online games? Bitcoin evolved into a tulip bulb investment simulator. I'm sure this analogy can be improved.
I think your 'analogy' is actually pretty close to reality. If it had just remained a currency simulator played by geeks for fun then it wouldn't be a problem. Unfortunately it was let out into the real world, where nefarious uses were found for it.

We should remember that Bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency) is not blockchain. Most of the flaws in Bitcoin would remain even it had a different carrier. Some of its flaws are the result of not considering evil intentions, others are due to not understanding how economics works. Blockchain is not responsible for any of that.

Quote:
Have you read the paper where Satoshi Nakamoto presented the theory of the blockchain and introduced bitcoin? The author seemed quite sincere and earnest in their intent to solve the 'double-spending problem' via blockchain and for people to actually use bitcoin as currency to buy pizza or whatever. I can't imagine how he could have predicted that speculation on bitcoin would lead to the bitcoin purchase price of a pizza in the past being equivalent to millions of dollars later.
I think you are probably right - not because the result isn't blindingly obvious, but because it fits the typical libertarian anarchist's mindset. They always spout on about how governments are evil and fiat currency is doomed, but they never suggest an alternative that is properly thought out. Most seem to understand little about the realities of economics, and naively think that people will act responsibly when given the freedom to do whatever they want.

If 'Satoshi Nakamoto' really wanted Bitcoin to be the solution he talked about, you would think he would have made at least some effort to predict how it would behave. Bitcoin is highly deflationary by nature, which any economist can tell you is a bad thing. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what would happen to the price if it was widely adopted, nor to calculate the amount of electricity required. My bet is he was so enamored by his own cleverness that he didn't even bother to do the sums.
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Old 5th July 2020, 09:55 AM   #634
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Bitcoin as originally envisaged is pretty much dead. It has become just another 'asset class', buoyed up by speculators looking to make money from nothing. Nobody talks about it being used as a cash replacement anymore, because it has failed in that role. As a means of getting free from the evil government it is a double-edged sword - unstable, rife with fraud and criminal behavior, and no protection for victims (libertarians probably think that's fine, but Bitcoin won't achieve the wider adoption they yearn for without fixing these flaws).

All true, but with one big difference - oversight. Most governments have laws against abuse of their currencies, and constantly crack down on criminal activities. Fiat money becoming worthless overnight is rare, generally being the result of a failed state (which has more than just monetary problems).

Bitcoin is only backed by the 'invisible hand' which never seems to be around when you need it. Bitcoin does nothing about stopping criminal activity - it actually enables it. Bitcoin has always been far more volatile than any major currency, making it a frustrating medium of exchange (but great for speculation).

I think your 'analogy' is actually pretty close to reality. If it had just remained a currency simulator played by geeks for fun then it wouldn't be a problem. Unfortunately it was let out into the real world, where nefarious uses were found for it.

We should remember that Bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency) is not blockchain. Most of the flaws in Bitcoin would remain even it had a different carrier. Some of its flaws are the result of not considering evil intentions, others are due to not understanding how economics works. Blockchain is not responsible for any of that.

I think you are probably right - not because the result isn't blindingly obvious, but because it fits the typical libertarian anarchist's mindset. They always spout on about how governments are evil and fiat currency is doomed, but they never suggest an alternative that is properly thought out. Most seem to understand little about the realities of economics, and naively think that people will act responsibly when given the freedom to do whatever they want.

If 'Satoshi Nakamoto' really wanted Bitcoin to be the solution he talked about, you would think he would have made at least some effort to predict how it would behave. Bitcoin is highly deflationary by nature, which any economist can tell you is a bad thing. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what would happen to the price if it was widely adopted, nor to calculate the amount of electricity required. My bet is he was so enamored by his own cleverness that he didn't even bother to do the sums.
Humans, especially creative ones, don't always think through all variables or contexts and Satoshi Nakamoto was under no regulatory, moral, ethical, legal, or peer review concerns and restrictions when coding the blockchain and bitcoin program. I think Nakamoto, intentionally or unintentionally, invented a paradigm (cryptocurrency) that can now be subjected to discussions and pressures regarding regulation, morality, ethics, legality, and peer review. I think the risks from bitcoin's anarchic inception (distinct from it's almost immediate anarchic use) is primarily a risk for cryptocurrency users and traders who have very little precedent or consensus to base decisions and predictions on (distinct from the risk to people who are targets of criminal acts paid for in cryptocurrency). I think bitcoin and cryptocurrency is still it's own distinct paradigm and hasn't succeeded in expanding or influencing the fiat or 'traditional' currency paradigm. This is why I say it's evolved into a tulip bulb investment simulator.

Last edited by Scopedog; 5th July 2020 at 09:56 AM.
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Old 5th July 2020, 08:37 PM   #635
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
This is why I say it's evolved into a tulip bulb investment simulator.
It doesn't matter why you say that. It is still a false analogy for reasons that have been given many times before - not the least being that predictions that the price of bitcoin is about to permanently collapse (this time for sure) have never materialized.
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Old 6th July 2020, 04:51 AM   #636
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It doesn't matter why you say that. It is still a false analogy for reasons that have been given many times before - not the least being that predictions that the price of bitcoin is about to permanently collapse (this time for sure) have never materialized.
I'm not predicting it's collapse or any future development.
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Old 6th July 2020, 04:55 AM   #637
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Not only are you reading the mind of somebody you don't even know exists but you are also attributing psychic powers to that person.
He may be wrong, but we can surmise people's intent through their actions all the time.
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Old 6th July 2020, 05:02 AM   #638
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Bitcoin is highly deflationary by nature, which any economist can tell you is a bad thing.
Not according to some austrian schools of thought, and libertarians do love their alternative economics...
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Old 6th July 2020, 05:03 AM   #639
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It doesn't matter why you say that. It is still a false analogy for reasons that have been given many times before - not the least being that predictions that the price of bitcoin is about to permanently collapse (this time for sure) have never materialized.
Collapse is irrelevant. BTC has failed to reach its objectives.
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Old 6th July 2020, 10:23 AM   #640
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
We don't even know if he is a person. One thing is pretty certain though, he isn't who he pretends to be. So we know he is a fraud.

But was Bitcoin originally intended to be a scam? We may never know, but I suspect not. Bitcoin 'fixes' all the things libertarian anarchists said was wrong with fiat. This suggests that the designer was himself a libertarian anarchist - and so did not understand what he was creating. He was so focused on trying to get free of 'evil' government fiat that he didn't consider how evil an anti-government currency could be.
I always got more of an occupy wall street, don't trust the banks because they print their own money vibe.

There is something to be said for the notion that there is fundamentally no differences between left wing anarchism and right wing libertarianism so it can be hard to tell the difference in a case like this.
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