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Tags Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 20th April 2017, 05:39 PM   #361
Belgian thought
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I would think a hard Brexit is more contingent on the good will of the EU than a soft one. It depends on what the EU wants the UK to keep doing (such as residency rights for EU ex-pats in the UK including access to healthcare) and whether certain protectionist policies would keep out or increase costs on EU goods etc...
My boldness highlights my point.
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Old 20th April 2017, 05:44 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by DreadNiK View Post
well this is a fruitful and interesting derail/nitpick going on...
It is, actually. I find these kinds of moral judgments about political strategy fascinating. I'm looking forward to angrysoba's rejoinder.
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Old 20th April 2017, 06:02 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It is, actually. I find these kinds of moral judgments about political strategy fascinating. I'm looking forward to angrysoba's rejoinder.
Already given. Read on, MacDuff!
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 20th April 2017, 06:05 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Already given. Read on, MacDuff!
Done and done! Much obliged!
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:09 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Even though she has insisted she couldn't even tell parliament her Brexit negotiation plan?
Don't make stuff up. She has published it.
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The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place. The Don

That's what we've sunk to here.

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Old 20th April 2017, 11:39 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Don't make stuff up. She has published it.
That's not exactly a plan - that's called a fairy tale...
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:41 PM   #367
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Much as I know I shouldn't, I do enjoy following the opinion polls. The latest ones have the Tory lead increasing, but, more interestingly, have Ukip's share plunging. They appear to be well behind the Lib Dems, and at their lowest point for years. I said in this forum some while back that their fox had been shot and they would become meaningless, and I am really hoping that this is coming to fruition. Lib Dems might just get a little satisfaction from this polling, and there is nothing but misery for Labour, who start the campaign further behind the Conservatives than John Major was behind Tony Blair in 1997.
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The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place. The Don

That's what we've sunk to here.

Last edited by MikeG; 20th April 2017 at 11:44 PM.
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:43 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That's not exactly a plan - that's called a fairy tale...
Never mind what you think of it, you denied it existed. It does.
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The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place. The Don

That's what we've sunk to here.
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:49 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Never mind what you think of it, you denied it existed. It does.
No I didn't. I merely said what she has said:

For example:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7341266.html
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:56 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Or you could look at the German model of co-determination in enterprises. Having work councils that appoint a number of members in the board, and that have to sign off on reorganisations and mass lay-offs and the social plans that accompany it.
There are plentiful ways of making this work or not work. What I find worrying by itself is that some plans are quite precise - half a million council buildings - while others are vague to the point of absurdity. Democratizing the economy can mean anything from unionizing labor (which is good) to worker-managed enterprises (which is Bad) and anything in between (e.g. worker-appointed member or two in the board). I don't see why politicians would deserve leeway and I see no reason to trust the Traitor to be able to tell what is good for the country from what is bad.

Quote:
ETA: as to those plans for building more (council) houses, I agree with what others have reacted to you on this.
Building more council houses is the only tangible point in the program. It's a vote buying scheme which may or may not produce meaningful benefits to the genuinely disadvantaged. I am always wary of such schemes, they should be undertaken only if it is shown the cost-benefit of the scheme is better than alternatives, whatever those may be. Not being able to list alternatives is a sufficient reason to distrust the proposal to the point of opposing it. Price controls, which are a part of the proposal, are in most cases as bad a policy as you can get. No one seems to have mentioned those for some odd reason.

I'm not saying a turn to the left is bad by itself. Calling yourself socialist while promising a vote buying scheme and nothing else that would be meaningful gives me precisely zero confidence however. It's how banana republics are set up in the first place.

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Old 21st April 2017, 02:40 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
No, this is a mandate, and a clearer one is difficult to realistically imagine:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/29...e-know-so-far/
If you want to spin it that way. The poll shows - after stripping out the don't knows - that 48.9% support Brexit, while 51.1% oppose/d it, but are split on what should happen next. It is also a question that does not address the type of Brexit we "should" have. The reality of that has not bitten yet, and even after it has, many people will not truly understand it until they're faced with the tabgible consequences of what they have lost.
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Old 21st April 2017, 02:43 AM   #372
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
People want the best outcome. There's no surprise there, it's still a mandate and a massive one at that.
Yes, two-thirds saying we should have free trade with the EU is pretty massive.
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Old 21st April 2017, 02:47 AM   #373
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
What has Le Pen to do with Brexit?
You've really got your finger on the pulse there....
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Old 21st April 2017, 02:48 AM   #374
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I'm having a complete boggle over the Labour activists who were saying right up to about last week that Corbyn is an unelectable liability, now crowing about how this is Labour's great chance to take power in Westminster. Even in the face of them trailing 20 points in the opinion polls.

The latest in Scotland is a concerted effort by Labour spokesmen to smear the SNP for "wanting the Conservatives to remain in government" because their MPs abstained on the FTPA vote. Whereas Labour showed their determination to oust the Tories - by trooping through the division lobbies with them.

Labour's only Scottish MP is now urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Conservatives to unseat SNP MPs. We're through the looking-glass and out the other side.
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Old 21st April 2017, 02:51 AM   #375
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Much as I know I shouldn't, I do enjoy following the opinion polls. The latest ones have the Tory lead increasing, but, more interestingly, have Ukip's share plunging. They appear to be well behind the Lib Dems, and at their lowest point for years. I said in this forum some while back that their fox had been shot and they would become meaningless, and I am really hoping that this is coming to fruition. Lib Dems might just get a little satisfaction from this polling, and there is nothing but misery for Labour, who start the campaign further behind the Conservatives than John Major was behind Tony Blair in 1997.
People get obsessed with labels. UKIP voters will keep voting for UKIP policies. It's just that they will be labelled Conservative this time around. Reducing UKIP votes by becoming them is no more a win than gaining Labour votes by becoming Tory or Lib Dems gaining power by agreeing to everything the Tories say.

If people could get beyond the labels we might be less to have productive policy discussions at some point. Unlikely though.
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Old 21st April 2017, 02:53 AM   #376
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm having a complete boggle over the Labour activists who were saying right up to about last week that Corbyn is an unelectable liability, now crowing about how this is Labour's great chance to take power in Westminster. Even in the face of them trailing 20 points in the opinion polls.

The latest in Scotland is a concerted effort by Labour spokesmen to smear the SNP for "wanting the Conservatives to remain in government" because their MPs abstained on the FTPA vote. Whereas Labour showed their determination to oust the Tories - by trooping through the division lobbies with them.

Labour's only Scottish MP is now urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Conservatives to unseat SNP MPs. We're through the looking-glass and out the other side.
Not a great surprise. Labour stand for nothing anymore. It's a mess.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:00 AM   #377
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Labour's only Scottish MP is now urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Conservatives to unseat SNP MPs.
You've got to be kidding me?
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:03 AM   #378
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
You've got to be kidding me?
Is someone, somewhere, being paid? This is just mental.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:05 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
If you want to spin it that way. The poll shows - after stripping out the don't knows - that 48.9% support Brexit, while 51.1% oppose/d it, but are split on what should happen next. It is also a question that does not address the type of Brexit we "should" have. The reality of that has not bitten yet, and even after it has, many people will not truly understand it until they're faced with the tabgible consequences of what they have lost.
Point 4 shows why. A clear majority, 40% of the electorate, thinks UK can secure a free trade deal to it's liking while achieving control over immigration. The fact this would cause the EU to disintegrate doesn't seem to register with them.

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Old 21st April 2017, 03:08 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm having a complete boggle over the Labour activists who were saying right up to about last week that Corbyn is an unelectable liability, now crowing about how this is Labour's great chance to take power in Westminster. Even in the face of them trailing 20 points in the opinion polls.

The latest in Scotland is a concerted effort by Labour spokesmen to smear the SNP for "wanting the Conservatives to remain in government" because their MPs abstained on the FTPA vote. Whereas Labour showed their determination to oust the Tories - by trooping through the division lobbies with them.

Labour's only Scottish MP is now urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Conservatives to unseat SNP MPs. We're through the looking-glass and out the other side.
The best advice I can give to you is to establish a republic and start growing bananas. You have everything else already, you might as well do these last two steps.

McHrozni
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:10 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Point 4 shows why. A clear majority, 40% of the electorate, thinks UK can secure a free trade deal to it's liking while achieving control over immigration. The fact this would cause the EU to disintegrate doesn't seem to register with them.

McHrozni


Just demonstrates the enormous amounts of voting from a position of complete ignorance going on.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

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Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:10 AM   #382
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I'd genuinely have been slightly pro brexit (at the least!) had it been campaigned on and handled better, instead of a disgusting festival of lying, bigotry and idiocy. In principle I don't have an issue with it (not that it matters as I'm not USAian but the same probably applies for trump)
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:13 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
You've got to be kidding me?
Well of course he is denying it but for Labour in Scotland it is the Union above all else it seems.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:14 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The best advice I can give to you is to establish a republic and start growing bananas. You have everything else already, you might as well do these last two steps.

McHrozni
If only we could grow bananas in Scotland
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:15 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The best advice I can give to you is to establish a republic and start growing bananas. You have everything else already, you might as well do these last two steps.

McHrozni
A Scottish Republic sounds fine to me; but if we remain in the EU we'll have to grow straight bananas, not more than two to a bunch. I can learn to live with that, however, if it puts an end to that damned Union.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:16 AM   #386
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Just demonstrates the enormous amounts of voting from a position of complete ignorance going on.
It's a symptom of the information revolution. Never before in history has information been so easily available, or in such quantities. The society wasn't ready for it, so it leads to problems down the line. In a generation or two the public at large will be able to distinguish facts from fiction with relative ease, because skepticism will be drilled into their minds from an early age. This is a skill some of us were able to learn but most people were not so fortunate.

I just hope the idiots don't do too much permanent damage in the meantime. Poor UK, I'd thank them for all the fish, but I don't like those anyway.

McHrozni
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:17 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
If only we could grow bananas in Scotland
Set up a heated greenhouse with lights and you should be all set.

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Old 21st April 2017, 03:20 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
A Scottish Republic sounds fine to me; but if we remain in the EU we'll have to grow straight bananas, not more than two to a bunch.
I'm reasonably certain you can grow and sell curved bananas in the EU. I bought a few yesterday and no one was summarily executed over the curvature.

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Old 21st April 2017, 03:28 AM   #389
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's a symptom of the information revolution. Never before in history has information been so easily available, or in such quantities. The society wasn't ready for it, so it leads to problems down the line. In a generation or two the public at large will be able to distinguish facts from fiction with relative ease, because skepticism will be drilled into their minds from an early age. This is a skill some of us were able to learn but most people were not so fortunate.

I just hope the idiots don't do too much permanent damage in the meantime. Poor UK, I'd thank them for all the fish, but I don't like those anyway.

McHrozni
you are a great deal more optimistic than I. I see the situation only getting worse as rich, vested interests learn to manipulate the poorly educated and just plain stupid into voting against their best interests.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 21st April 2017, 03:37 AM   #390
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
you are a great deal more optimistic than I. I see the situation only getting worse as rich, vested interests learn to manipulate the poorly educated and just plain stupid into voting against their best interests.
You could say the same about television sixty years ago or so and that didn't work in the long run. You could also say the same about the printing press five hundred years ago or so and that didn't last forever either.

Ways to manipulate the public come and stay, they're highly effective for a generation or two and then phase in the background as the society adapts to their strengths and finds out their weaknesses. It's a normal cycle, during the Gallic wars and codification of Christianity a few centuries later assertions of greatness in writing were enough to convince the masses you truly were onto something. Today people demand more, much more in terms of evidence if you try writing it in a book and sell it as proof of your greatness, but they believe a great many things if they get them through internet. The masses will learn to distrust the internet just as well as they learned to distrust orators, pamphlets and television. It'll take a while, but we'll get there.

We're screwed in the meantime though

McHrozni
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Old 21st April 2017, 04:06 AM   #391
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
... I'm not saying a turn to the left is bad by itself. Calling yourself socialist while promising a vote buying scheme and nothing else that would be meaningful gives me precisely zero confidence however. It's how banana republicWPs are set up in the first place.

McHrozni
Err, no it isn't
Moreover, by the late 19th century, three American multinational corporations—the United Fruit Company, the Standard Fruit Company, and the Cuyamel Fruit Company—dominated the cultivation, harvesting, and exportation of bananas, and controlled the road, rail, and port infrastructure of Honduras. In the northern coastal areas near the Caribbean Sea, the Honduran government ceded to the banana companies 500 hectares per kilometre (2,000 acre/mi) of railroad laid, even though there was still no passenger or freight railroad to Tegucigalpa, the national capital city. Among the Honduran people, the United Fruit Company was known as El Pulpo ("The Octopus"), because its influence had come to pervade their society, controlled their country's transport infrastructure, and sometimes violently manipulated national politics.
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Old 21st April 2017, 04:07 AM   #392
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Point 4 shows why. A clear majority, 40% of the electorate, thinks UK can secure a free trade deal to it's liking while achieving control over immigration. The fact this would cause the EU to disintegrate doesn't seem to register with them.
Yes, the real problem is pollsters offering "options" that have no connection with reality. They just perpetuate the misconceptions many Leave voters had in the first place.
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Old 21st April 2017, 04:12 AM   #393
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
You could say the same about television sixty years ago or so and that didn't work in the long run. You could also say the same about the printing press five hundred years ago or so and that didn't last forever either.

Ways to manipulate the public come and stay, they're highly effective for a generation or two and then phase in the background as the society adapts to their strengths and finds out their weaknesses. It's a normal cycle, during the Gallic wars and codification of Christianity a few centuries later assertions of greatness in writing were enough to convince the masses you truly were onto something. Today people demand more, much more in terms of evidence if you try writing it in a book and sell it as proof of your greatness, but they believe a great many things if they get them through internet. The masses will learn to distrust the internet just as well as they learned to distrust orators, pamphlets and television. It'll take a while, but we'll get there.

We're screwed in the meantime though

McHrozni
Are you sure about this?

Do you honestly believe that people have seen through TV and print and aren't influenced by it anymore?

I mean 'The Secret' has sold 20 million copies. And 1.5m people buy the Daily Mail every day.
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Old 21st April 2017, 04:15 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Err, no it isn't
I used "set up" in lieu of "function", not "are created".

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Old 21st April 2017, 04:20 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Are you sure about this?

Do you honestly believe that people have seen through TV and print and aren't influenced by it anymore?
No, I'm not saying the means of manipulation come and go. I explicitly say they come and stay, but phase into the background. Over time their power to manipulate public opinion decays until it is no more effective than the other media.

Of course television still shapes public opinions, just as newspapers and speeches do. Internet looms incredibly large today though, just as television did sixty years ago. A few decades from now internet will be far less effective than it is today.

Quote:
I mean 'The Secret' has sold 20 million copies. And 1.5m people buy the Daily Mail every day.
For one reason or another British public is more gullible than the norm.

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Old 21st April 2017, 05:09 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
No, I'm not saying the means of manipulation come and go. I explicitly say they come and stay, but phase into the background. Over time their power to manipulate public opinion decays until it is no more effective than the other media.

Of course television still shapes public opinions, just as newspapers and speeches do. Internet looms incredibly large today though, just as television did sixty years ago. A few decades from now internet will be far less effective than it is today.



For one reason or another British public is more gullible than the norm.

McHrozni
I haven't seen the data but is the internet more effective than TV or print in terms of persuasion or is it just that it is easier to publish large quantities of tripe on?

Are people more likely to believe something they read on the internet vs something they read in a newspaper?
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Old 21st April 2017, 05:12 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post

For one reason or another British public is more gullible than the norm.
Possibly a sidetrack but might be an interesting topic. I would imagine the vast majority of tripe on the internet is published in English. I wonder if there is a connection between consuming media in English and believing tripe?
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Old 21st April 2017, 05:13 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I haven't seen the data but is the internet more effective than TV or print in terms of persuasion or is it just that it is easier to publish large quantities of tripe on?

Are people more likely to believe something they read on the internet vs something they read in a newspaper?

The internet allows the demagogue to more carefully craft their demagoguery to fit the target audience. The effect is magnified because no-one running a social media site wants to upset their readership and risk revenue and so people don't even get to find out that ideas contrary to their own exist, let alone have to defend those ideas against any sort of criticism.
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Old 21st April 2017, 05:36 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
The internet allows the demagogue to more carefully craft their demagoguery to fit the target audience. The effect is magnified because no-one running a social media site wants to upset their readership and risk revenue and so people don't even get to find out that ideas contrary to their own exist, let alone have to defend those ideas against any sort of criticism.
Is this different than what newspapers have been doing for decades? I can see how the internet helps with getting the right information to the right people but that effect isn't going to go away over time.
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Old 21st April 2017, 05:41 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
If you want to spin it that way. The poll shows - after stripping out the don't knows - that 48.9% support Brexit, while 51.1% oppose/d it, but are split on what should happen next.
Maybe if you stuck to the figures in the report without trying to re-analyse them using laughably biased 'techniques'? And you talk about spin.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
It is also a question that does not address the type of Brexit we "should" have. The reality of that has not bitten yet, and even after it has, many people will not truly understand it until they're faced with the tabgible consequences of what they have lost.
The doomsday scenario is always just around the corner. When it doesn't play out that doesn't matter because it's still just around the corner! Remoaners put me in mind of the End of Times crowd, always predicting the end of the world yet totally unphased when their dates pass unnoticed, concentrating instead on the next date when Armageddon will really happen, honestly!

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Yes, two-thirds saying we should have free trade with the EU is pretty massive.
You seem to have magicked this figure out of nothing and summarised a cherry-picked portion of the explanation to fit your biases. What it boils down to is everybody wants the best possible outcome, that's hardly surprising, but it's not how negotiation works. Indeed, the report states this:

Originally Posted by report
Asking about the individual parts of Brexit is probably the wrong way to do it. The public won’t get to pick an a la carte Brexit, they will be presented with a Brexit deal by the government and will, presumably, either think it is a good or bad deal for Britain.
When you look at the figures overall they tell a very different story. The fourth graphic shows that 52% of people think 'TM's Brexit deal would be good for Britain' and 61% believe that her deal 'would respect the result of the referendum.' Furthermore, 64% of people believe that a 'hard Brexit would respect the result of the referendum', only one point below the 'Canada-style' deal which includes free trade. Kind of makes a mockery of the significance of your 'two-thirds' claim.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You've really got your finger on the pulse there....
So you can't answer, then.
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