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Tags Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 18th April 2017, 05:52 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
So is a hard Brexit.



Oh, I'm sure the EU 27 could be made to forgive UK all of this and allow UK to remain inside EU despite invoking A50. The only question is the price - bail out Greece and Spain with British taxpayer money, join the Euro and enter into Shengen area and UK can Bremain.
As I say, that could never happen. I'm optimistic about Brexit. I was dubious on the day of the result but after seeing the scaremongering has so far proved entirely baseless there's no reason why it should not continue to be so.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:05 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Without knowing which party is going to be in charge, and therefore what is going to be negotiated for, how can anybody negotiate for anything?
Because the Tories are in power and can negotiate what they want for now.

A lot of the things won't change a jot between the different flavours of Brexit in any case and a lot of the negotiations will be admin/process stuff rather than real meat and bones of controversial topics.

If we somehow got a magical result where we end up with no Brexit then the negotiations can just be torn up and thrown away.

Worst case scenario you end up negotiating to change an existing framework rather than create one from scratch. Not a huge difference.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:09 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
. However how does this election further that goal is beyond me. It's clear she is unlikely to lose the election, so how does this work to scupper Brexit or at least allow her to blame someone else for the failures?

McHrozni
Well it gives a chance of being dumped out of power and not having to implement the decision. Or a chance of having to compromise with the Lib Dems to get a coalition together.

I mean I don't think it's a great chance but maybe she's getting desperate?
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:11 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by bluesjnr View Post
Just listened to Corbyns statement om Radio2. Not much I can say about it, it's hardly inspiring.


I listene too (on Radio 4!) and I can't believe he didn't even mention the Brexit business.
P.S. My constituency is New Forest West so Desmond Swayne has no worries about being returned as MP - which I'm quite happy about as apart from being a brexiteer - grrrr - he is a good MP.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:12 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
which I'm quite happy about as apart from being a brexiteer - grrrr - he is a good MP.
???

"Apart from being drunk behind the wheel John is a pretty good bus driver".
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:13 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I'm starting to think he's a Tory agent, sent to destroy the Labour from the inside.

McHrozni
Ah, so that's what "entryism" means. Now I get it!
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:19 AM   #47
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Just thought I'd check and my Tory MP has nearly 60% of the vote here. He's also a supporter of homeopathy apparently. And a Brexiteer. Ho hum.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:22 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Oh, I'm sure the EU 27 could be made to forgive UK all of this and allow UK to remain inside EU despite invoking A50. The only question is the price - bail out Greece and Spain with British taxpayer money, join the Euro and enter into Shengen area and UK can Bremain.

This would be probably less bad for UK than what Theresa will bring, oddly enough.

McHrozni
You forgot: abolishing the GBP 100mn/week rebate that Mrs. T negotiated, and henceforth pay what everyone else is paying too.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:27 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Negotiations can proceed in the meantime. There's no need to wait for the GE result.
Absolutely not. You don't know what party will be in power on 10 June nor what they want. It would be a waste of time of the EU negotiators to start negotiation in these circumstances.

May already comes quite unprepared to the negotiations, despite having taken 9 months time for preparations. and now she voids 2.5 months of the already tight deadline. I'd say the UK government is acting in bad faith toward the EU.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Because the Tories are in power and can negotiate what they want for now.
It takes two to tango. With the call for new elections, you now have a lame duck government that can make no decisions. Why would any EU negotiator come to the table when in two months time, there might be another government that wants it differently?
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:39 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
May has called for a general election, if she gets the votes it will be in June.

At the end of this year many of us will be able to reminisce about when there used to be something called "an opposition".
The only opposition party that seems to have its ducks in a row is the SNP. Maybe you could beg them to pretty please field candidates in England & Wales? For instance in the historic Scottish burgh of Islington.
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Old 18th April 2017, 06:41 AM   #51
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I must admit I have trouble seeing her endgame. As others have pointed out, the PM has sufficient seats to ensure that the eventual deal will go through unless it is so blindingly obviously bad that there is a sizeable backbench rebellion. Of course that may yet come, but in that case all bets would be off anyway.

On the other hand if the objective is to neutralise the SNP and Indyref2, then it would probably been wiser to hang on until after the local government elections at the start of May inasmuch as they would have been a litmus test for Nationalist support mid-term. For what it's worth i don't see any real change in the Scottish political landscape and even if a couple of seats went one way or t'other it would be difficult to see the SNP having anything other than a majority of (Scottish) MPs being returned.

All very peculiar indeed.
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Old 18th April 2017, 07:49 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Absolutely not. You don't know what party will be in power on 10 June nor what they want. It would be a waste of time of the EU negotiators to start negotiation in these circumstances.
Not as much of a waste of time as not doing anything would be. And it doesn't matter what party is in power for many things. Still if that's TM's line that she can't negotiate for months because she might not win the election then let her say that.

Quote:
May already comes quite unprepared to the negotiations, despite having taken 9 months time for preparations. and now she voids 2.5 months of the already tight deadline. I'd say the UK government is acting in bad faith toward the EU.
It's only 7 weeks till June 8th. I'd say the UK government is acting in bad faith to everyone. not just the EU. But they are Tories. What do you expect?

Quote:
It takes two to tango. With the call for new elections, you now have a lame duck government that can make no decisions. Why would any EU negotiator come to the table when in two months time, there might be another government that wants it differently?
Because as I've said there are lots of things that can be agreed in principle that would still be progress towards the end goal even if the specifics might change. And we are paying the wages of the negotiators in the meantime so they might as well do their jobs.
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Old 18th April 2017, 07:57 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Not as much of a waste of time as not doing anything would be. And it doesn't matter what party is in power for many things. Still if that's TM's line that she can't negotiate for months because she might not win the election then let her say that.
I think you don't understand what I'm saying.

Why would the EU negotiators go to the table with a British lame duck government?

Time is crucial for the UK, not the EU, in these negotiations.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It's only 7 weeks till June 8th. I'd say the UK government is acting in bad faith to everyone. not just the EU. But they are Tories. What do you expect?
Fair enough. As to the time: isn't the time from 29 March until now also kind-of wasted?
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:02 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Architect View Post
I must admit I have trouble seeing her endgame. As others have pointed out, the PM has sufficient seats to ensure that the eventual deal will go through unless it is so blindingly obviously bad that there is a sizeable backbench rebellion. Of course that may yet come, but in that case all bets would be off anyway.

On the other hand if the objective is to neutralise the SNP and Indyref2, then it would probably been wiser to hang on until after the local government elections at the start of May inasmuch as they would have been a litmus test for Nationalist support mid-term. For what it's worth i don't see any real change in the Scottish political landscape and even if a couple of seats went one way or t'other it would be difficult to see the SNP having anything other than a majority of (Scottish) MPs being returned.

All very peculiar indeed.
It may just be a delaying tactic on Scotref. It can probably quite legitimately now be parked for 3 months as a question.

Any reduction in SNP representation (and lets face it the only way they can go is down from their current position) can be spun to strengthen their position that Scottish people don't agree with the SNP on this one.

In that regard its maybe tactically fairly clever. It'll be interesting to see if the SNP have prepared for such a possibility and what their reaction may be.

I guess the base model response is fight it like a normal GE on a Scotref ticket and use a majority of MPs being returned as a clear mandate although I don't see how that gains them anything from today.

A high risk move might well be to use the GE as Indyref and run on a ticket of negotiating independence with Westminster. This used to be their position but they have since backed away towards the referendum approach.

I'm not sure what legitimacy that move would have with a few dozen Westminster MPs.

Could they double whammy it and have a Scottish Election on the same day in the hope of getting a clear SNP majority in Holyrood and using that as a mandate to declare independence? I don't think that would work either.

So, since the Tories have nothing to lose in Scotland and the SNP little to gain it might well be that May thinks there is not much at risk from her point of view. She can probably only end up in a stronger position.

The short timeframe on this probably also causes problems for any large scale tactical voting or political coalitions to form but I guess it could be a possibility. A Bremain Alliance forming might be interesting.
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:06 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I think you don't understand what I'm saying.

Why would the EU negotiators go to the table with a British lame duck government?

Time is crucial for the UK, not the EU, in these negotiations.
The EU negotiators have an obligation to negotiate as Art 50 has been triggered in line with the constitution of the EU. They cannot refuse to negotiate. Of course they don't have to agree to anything and they could certainly use the election as an excuse to be non-commital but then it would be them that was acting in bad faith.

Quote:
Fair enough. As to the time: isn't the time from 29 March until now also kind-of wasted?
Not unless whatever work done till now is going to be thrown away. I assume they've agreed on important stuff like meeting times, locations, biscuit preferences and scheduling of lunches?
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:19 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
You don't know what party will be in power on 10 June nor what they want.
Really? You think Labour have any chance of winning. Or maybe the Lib Dems, or UKIP?
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:33 AM   #57
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Apparently TM has said she won't take part in any TV debates for the election. Has she actually gone mental?
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Old 18th April 2017, 09:38 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Because the Tories are in power and can negotiate what they want for now.
Yes, but if it's all change in 2 months' time then that will all be time wasted. Besides which, they've now got to concentrate on winning an election. You don't do that without putting in time and effort, even if you are massively ahead in the polls.
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Old 18th April 2017, 09:39 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Apparently TM has said she won't take part in any TV debates for the election. Has she actually gone mental?
I do expect her to go the full Maggie and start using the royal we about herself any day soon now. It seems PMs go mad in office quicker these days.
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Old 18th April 2017, 09:45 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Architect View Post
I must admit I have trouble seeing her endgame. As others have pointed out, the PM has sufficient seats to ensure that the eventual deal will go through unless it is so blindingly obviously bad that there is a sizeable backbench rebellion. Of course that may yet come, but in that case all bets would be off anyway.

On the other hand if the objective is to neutralise the SNP and Indyref2, then it would probably been wiser to hang on until after the local government elections at the start of May inasmuch as they would have been a litmus test for Nationalist support mid-term. For what it's worth i don't see any real change in the Scottish political landscape and even if a couple of seats went one way or t'other it would be difficult to see the SNP having anything other than a majority of (Scottish) MPs being returned.

All very peculiar indeed.
Brexit will have happened in 2 years. This is almost certainly going to be a bad thing for the UK. There was going to be an election the year after. So the Tories would be trying to get re-elected with the whole country reeling from the fallout of Brexit, weakening their position considerably. And who knows what the opposition will be like at that point?

Now, however, they're riding high in the polls, the Lib Dems haven't recovered from the Coalition, Labour is toothless and falling apart, and she can frame voting Tory as being the only way to ensure a good result of Brexit - meaning people are even more likely to vote for them. So they get elected now, and then there's not another election until 2022, 3 years after Brexit, giving the country time to recover and people enough time to forget the reason for the country being up the crapper in the first place.

Basically, doing it like this guarantees them control of the country for the next 5 years, and gives them the best chance of winning the next election, too.
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Old 18th April 2017, 09:49 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Really? You think Labour have any chance of winning. Or maybe the Lib Dems, or UKIP?
May is pushing the idea that the election needs to happen now because there's too much division in Westminster for effective Brexit negotiations. Do you think being in the run-up to an election makes Parliament seem stronger and more united? Or less?
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Old 18th April 2017, 09:51 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Brexit will have happened in 2 years. This is almost certainly going to be a bad thing for the UK. There was going to be an election the year after. So the Tories would be trying to get re-elected with the whole country reeling from the fallout of Brexit, weakening their position considerably. And who knows what the opposition will be like at that point?

Now, however, they're riding high in the polls, the Lib Dems haven't recovered from the Coalition, Labour is toothless and falling apart, and she can frame voting Tory as being the only way to ensure a good result of Brexit - meaning people are even more likely to vote for them. So they get elected now, and then there's not another election until 2022, 3 years after Brexit, giving the country time to recover and people enough time to forget the reason for the country being up the crapper in the first place.

Basically, doing it like this guarantees them control of the country for the next 5 years, and gives them the best chance of winning the next election, too.
The sad thing is a sizeable amount of the population will fall for the line that voting Tory is the only way to get a good deal from Brexit. People are idiots like that.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:00 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Really? You think Labour have any chance of winning. Or maybe the Lib Dems, or UKIP?
Of course not. I think the Tories will even get a 2/3 majority in the Commons.

But a EU negotiator can still say: I don't know whom I'll be dealing with.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The EU negotiators have an obligation to negotiate as Art 50 has been triggered in line with the constitution of the EU. They cannot refuse to negotiate. Of course they don't have to agree to anything and they could certainly use the election as an excuse to be non-commital but then it would be them that was acting in bad faith.
They can always hide behind: there's no-one to talk to. Israel has been touting that line for decades and they get away with it.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Not unless whatever work done till now is going to be thrown away. I assume they've agreed on important stuff like meeting times, locations, biscuit preferences and scheduling of lunches?
Sure. And the first big nut to crack is the meta-negotiations. The EU wants to first negotiate the divorce settlement, and only after that the future (trade) relations. The current UK government wants to do those in parallel.

As it is, the EU have a summit on 29 April to determine their common position vis-a-vis the UK, and that will likely still stand. But that's not dependent on what the UK does.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:25 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Brexit will have happened in 2 years. This is almost certainly going to be a bad thing for the UK. There was going to be an election the year after. So the Tories would be trying to get re-elected with the whole country reeling from the fallout of Brexit, weakening their position considerably. And who knows what the opposition will be like at that point?

Now, however, they're riding high in the polls, the Lib Dems haven't recovered from the Coalition, Labour is toothless and falling apart, and she can frame voting Tory as being the only way to ensure a good result of Brexit - meaning people are even more likely to vote for them. So they get elected now, and then there's not another election until 2022, 3 years after Brexit, giving the country time to recover and people enough time to forget the reason for the country being up the crapper in the first place.

Basically, doing it like this guarantees them control of the country for the next 5 years, and gives them the best chance of winning the next election, too.
I would say the above nails it for the motive. It is a clever strategy.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:27 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
I would say the above nails it for the motive. It is a clever strategy.
Not if you want to keep Scotland in the Union, it's not.

Plus the Scottish parties were already in campaign mode so have a running start.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:33 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
I feel sorry for the traditional Labour voters. First they see the party taken over by an incompetent socialist, now they'll see their party effectively destroyed and pushed out of Westminster.
I'm not so sure you're right. I mean, they'll get slaughtered in vote share, and will lose heavily in terms of seats, but there are 150-plus seats in which Labour could put up a donkey and still win. Until there is a credible alternative left of centre party, Labour will hold a rump of seats, come what may. It might even be enough seats for Corbyn to hold on to the leader's job, which would be just great for the Conservatives, catastrophic for Labour, and sad for democracy.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:36 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Architect View Post
Not if you want to keep Scotland in the Union, it's not.

Plus the Scottish parties were already in campaign mode so have a running start.
Were she to win more seats, how many in Parliament would give Scotland the right to a second referendum?
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:46 AM   #68
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Personally, I hope the young of the UK have taken note and will turn out to vote, use their technological/social networking know-how to throw a spanner in the works.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZgkLeFETY4 :-)
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:47 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
Were she to win more seats, how many in Parliament would give Scotland the right to a second referendum?
Not sure I fully understand the question. There is no number of snp seats that would give Scotland the right to a referendum in the view of Westminster.

The right to a referendum was won by the Scottish government at the last Scottish elections.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:48 AM   #70
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:53 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It may just be a delaying tactic on Scotref. It can probably quite legitimately now be parked for 3 months as a question.

Any reduction in SNP representation (and lets face it the only way they can go is down from their current position) can be spun to strengthen their position that Scottish people don't agree with the SNP on this one.

In that regard its maybe tactically fairly clever. It'll be interesting to see if the SNP have prepared for such a possibility and what their reaction may be.

I guess the base model response is fight it like a normal GE on a Scotref ticket and use a majority of MPs being returned as a clear mandate although I don't see how that gains them anything from today.

A high risk move might well be to use the GE as Indyref and run on a ticket of negotiating independence with Westminster. This used to be their position but they have since backed away towards the referendum approach.

I'm not sure what legitimacy that move would have with a few dozen Westminster MPs.

Could they double whammy it and have a Scottish Election on the same day in the hope of getting a clear SNP majority in Holyrood and using that as a mandate to declare independence? I don't think that would work either.

So, since the Tories have nothing to lose in Scotland and the SNP little to gain it might well be that May thinks there is not much at risk from her point of view. She can probably only end up in a stronger position.

The short timeframe on this probably also causes problems for any large scale tactical voting or political coalitions to form but I guess it could be a possibility. A Bremain Alliance forming might be interesting.
I think the "Now is not the time" dismissal will stick in the craw of a lot of Scots right now. It could reduce support from its current level. Added to that the current stramash with Ruth and the rape clause then it could be a bad move.
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Old 18th April 2017, 10:56 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Not sure I fully understand the question. There is no number of snp seats that would give Scotland the right to a referendum in the view of Westminster.

The right to a referendum was won by the Scottish government at the last Scottish elections.
"The Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, setting out the arrangements for this referendum, was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the Scottish and the United Kingdom governments"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...ferendum,_2014

Again an agreement with Westminster will have to precede any referendum thus adding time.

Can Scotland ask for a referendum before the divorce from the EU is through? If not, again more time.
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Old 18th April 2017, 11:01 AM   #73
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A couple of thoughts. May is doing this to bump up her majority in Parliament with a bunch of shiny new backbenchers eager to climb the ranks and thus not disposed to be labelled as rebels or troublemakers. They can be counted on to follow the party line and bury an malcontents when it comes to controversial legislation.

This election probably won't kill Labour off anymore than 1983 did, or 1997 did with the Conservatives. it may even be a good thing in that it limits the time available to Corbyn to really screw the party up.

As to Brexit, it really makes no odds. We're doomed to the hardest of hard Brexits and a couple of months lost in negotiating while everyone waits for the election results won't make a blind bit of difference.
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Old 18th April 2017, 11:04 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
...
As to Brexit, it really makes no odds. We're doomed to the hardest of hard Brexits and a couple of months lost in negotiating while everyone waits for the election results won't make a blind bit of difference.
Agreed, political survival is showing its true self.
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Old 18th April 2017, 11:14 AM   #75
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May cited as one of the reasons for this early elections: "Labour threatened to vote against the final agreement with the EU".

Wait-a-minute.

That she thinks this is a problem implies that she views the final vote Parliament will have over the agreement as a foregone conclusion: anyone should vote in favour, and now already promise to do so, whatever may come. So why vote at all if you think the function of Parliament is the only be a bunch of yes-(wo)men?

This puts her in the same league, in democratic views, as Erdogan and Putin.
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Old 18th April 2017, 11:22 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
Were she to win more seats, how many in Parliament would give Scotland the right to a second referendum?
No number.

And in the 2015 elections, the SNP won 56 out of 59 Scottish constituencies. It's hardly possible tot win more.
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Old 18th April 2017, 11:45 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
May cited as one of the reasons for this early elections: "Labour threatened to vote against the final agreement with the EU".

Wait-a-minute.

That she thinks this is a problem implies that she views the final vote Parliament will have over the agreement as a foregone conclusion: anyone should vote in favour, and now already promise to do so, whatever may come. So why vote at all if you think the function of Parliament is the only be a bunch of yes-(wo)men?

This puts her in the same league, in democratic views, as Erdogan and Putin.
She has shown a disturbing disdain for the courts and parliament. Remember the 'Great Repeal Bill' will allow her to rewrite a huge raft of previously EU based legislation without any reference to parliament whatsoever.
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Old 18th April 2017, 12:13 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
....... Brexits and a couple of months lost in negotiating while everyone waits for the election results won't make a blind bit of difference.
Why would you think there will be a couple of months off? There will be no substantive negotiations until the German elections are over anyway.
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Old 18th April 2017, 12:16 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
.......This puts her in the same league, in democratic views, as Erdogan and Putin.
Hyperbolic bollocks. She is putting her ideas to a general election. She is entitled to want to put her point of view forward, and she will be judged on it by the electorate. There is nothing undemocratic in that at all.
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Old 18th April 2017, 12:22 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
May has played this very cleverly, IMO. Corbyn couldn't lead a party to win a jam competition, and the LibDems are still tainted by their broken promises in coalition. With the Tories at 42% in the polls, she gets to take a massive majority to European negotiations.

As a country, we're utterly **********.
Exactly. If you see you opponent is in a weakened state, that is when you attack.
Seven years is too long. Should be four. Fixed terms have their advantages.
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