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Old 15th September 2020, 06:30 AM   #1881
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Doc Fauci recommends vitamins D and C.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...id=mailsignout
I guess I'm fortunate that those two have recently been added (for other reasons) to my daily pill cocktail.
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Old 15th September 2020, 07:57 AM   #1882
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
As to the US - I don't know what plans they had.
The Atlantic has a long article breaking down some of what went wrong in the USA. It provides background on some of the plans created from prior risks, Ebola, SARS, Influenza, Anthrax (letters containing it shut down postal service for a while).

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-wrong/613591/
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Old 15th September 2020, 10:41 AM   #1883
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Re: vitamin D - For a few years I've been taking 2x D3 1000iu due to the seemingly ever present grey skies where I live. I read somewhere (examine.com maybe?) that the safe daily limit is probably higher than that, but I don't know about that kind of stuff and so stick to the lower level.
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Old 15th September 2020, 12:18 PM   #1884
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Originally Posted by PPL View Post
Re: vitamin D - For a few years I've been taking 2x D3 1000iu due to the seemingly ever present grey skies where I live. I read somewhere (examine.com maybe?) that the safe daily limit is probably higher than that, but I don't know about that kind of stuff and so stick to the lower level.

There seems to be a consensus that dosages up to 4,000 units are safe. But the recommended daily allowance is 400 to 800 units, depending on age. I wouldn't guess there's much benefit to going too far above 1,000 units.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-sup...d/art-20363792
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Old 15th September 2020, 01:32 PM   #1885
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
There seems to be a consensus that dosages up to 4,000 units are safe. But the recommended daily allowance is 400 to 800 units, depending on age. I wouldn't guess there's much benefit to going too far above 1,000 units.

(Mayoclinic link removed because I can't post or quote links yet)
Yeah, that's kind of similar to the info I read on the NHS site. I'll probably stick to the lower end of the range I've been taking.
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Old 15th September 2020, 01:32 PM   #1886
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Doc Fauci recommends vitamins D and C.
I saw that the other day - smart fella. I have my gold polish ready for December.

Originally Posted by PPL View Post
Re: vitamin D - For a few years I've been taking 2x D3 1000iu due to the seemingly ever present grey skies where I live. I read somewhere (examine.com maybe?) that the safe daily limit is probably higher than that, but I don't know about that kind of stuff and so stick to the lower level.
Given the adverse effects of too much, erring on the side of caution seems the right choice.
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Old 15th September 2020, 04:26 PM   #1887
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I saw that the other day - smart fella. I have my gold polish ready for December.



Given the adverse effects of too much, erring on the side of caution seems the right choice.
What am I missing here? What evidence does Fauci have?

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelin...apy/vitamin-d/

Quote:
There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of vitamin D for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19.
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Old 15th September 2020, 04:30 PM   #1888
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These are the two major results of interest - both posted earlier:

https://elemental.medium.com/a-super...d-31cb8eba9d63

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/for...etting-covid19

There are others of varying quality.
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Old 15th September 2020, 04:34 PM   #1889
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
That hasn't been updated since July.

Vitamin D is finally attracting serious interest, though: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/resul...e=&city=&dist=

Results of those should start coming in fairly soon - the Indian study is well under way, but the evidence to date looks pretty good.
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Old 15th September 2020, 04:40 PM   #1890
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That hasn't been updated since July.

Vitamin D is finally attracting serious interest, though: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/resul...e=&city=&dist=

Results of those should start coming in fairly soon - the Indian study is well under way, but the evidence to date looks pretty good.
Correct.They haven't updated it.

Plenty of things looked promising in the past before proving next to useless.
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Old 15th September 2020, 05:56 PM   #1891
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Correct.They haven't updated it.

Plenty of things looked promising in the past before proving next to useless.

Depends on what you expect. The issue is that there seems to be an observed correlation between low vitamin D levels and more severe covid consequences, both among individual patients and in regions where people might be more likely to be deficient. So it would seem to make sense to make sure that vitamin D levels are within the recommended range. It's not being promoted as a guaranteed preventive or a miracle cure.

And one of the links above is dated Sept. 3.
Quote:
In a retrospective study of patients tested for COVID-19, researchers at the University of Chicago Medicine found an association between vitamin D deficiency and the likelihood of becoming infected with the coronavirus.
https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/for...etting-covid19
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Old 16th September 2020, 12:21 AM   #1892
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Depends on what you expect. The issue is that there seems to be an observed correlation between low vitamin D levels and more severe covid consequences, both among individual patients and in regions where people might be more likely to be deficient. So it would seem to make sense to make sure that vitamin D levels are within the recommended range. It's not being promoted as a guaranteed preventive or a miracle cure.

And one of the links above is dated Sept. 3.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/for...etting-covid19
There's a correlation though not necessarily a causation - but still, it's cheap, it's plentiful (for now) and easy to take, so at least taking it if you can't get out in the sun seems sensible.
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Old 16th September 2020, 12:28 AM   #1893
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Maybe that is part of the problem. They had a plan that must have cost big $ to develop. So everyone was told to stick to the plan. Do not query it. Took them a long time to work out the plan was not working. Contrast with Australia when the country woke up one day to discover a major stuff up had just happened. A cruise ship (Ruby Princess) had just discharged its passengers, many with the virus, and they had taken interstate flights. Worse our PM had just had his credibility seriously undermined by spending time on holiday instead of dealing with the bushfires that were raging across the nation. A new plan had to be written and executed fast. This was lead by the PM, who had worked out he had to take a leadership role. This one almost worked.
This is a standard public health scenario, an outbreak on a ship, a point source outbreak. This is very different from the UK experience when literally hundreds of separate outbreaks (mostly imported from Europe) occurred at the same time. It is easy to say look at Korea, or Australia, but the scenario was very different. In both cases the outbreaks were single events. This is completely different from the UK. The failure to manage a 'simple' ship board outbreak, quarantine the ship, and quarantine the people coming off was a professional failure not a political one. Politicians should be nowhere near operational decision making.

The big error in the UK (and availability of testing in February was limited so is part of the reason), was that the case definition was limited to those with Chinese contacts, so people coming in from Europe were not eligible for testing until March, by which time multiple outbreaks were underway. If the case definition had been extended earlier, more cases would have been identified earlier and the extent of the outbreak known earlier and public health measures introduced earlier.

I do wonder if there was a political reluctance to label Europe as being a health risk in February / March although I would have thought the current party in power in the UK would have been happy to label the 'continent' as dirty. However there was also a failure by national authorities in Spain, Italy and France to recognise the extent of covid 19 in these countries and these were the main source of the epidemic in the UK.
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Old 16th September 2020, 12:39 AM   #1894
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This is a standard public health scenario, an outbreak on a ship, a point source outbreak. This is very different from the UK experience when literally hundreds of separate outbreaks (mostly imported from Europe) occurred at the same time. It is easy to say look at Korea, or Australia, but the scenario was very different. In both cases the outbreaks were single events. This is completely different from the UK. The failure to manage a 'simple' ship board outbreak, quarantine the ship, and quarantine the people coming off was a professional failure not a political one. Politicians should be nowhere near operational decision making.

The big error in the UK (and availability of testing in February was limited so is part of the reason), was that the case definition was limited to those with Chinese contacts, so people coming in from Europe were not eligible for testing until March, by which time multiple outbreaks were underway. If the case definition had been extended earlier, more cases would have been identified earlier and the extent of the outbreak known earlier and public health measures introduced earlier.

I do wonder if there was a political reluctance to label Europe as being a health risk in February / March although I would have thought the current party in power in the UK would have been happy to label the 'continent' as dirty. However there was also a failure by national authorities in Spain, Italy and France to recognise the extent of covid 19 in these countries and these were the main source of the epidemic in the UK.
Might any reluctance relate to the sheer numbers of UK citizens returning from Europe at the time? Given the difficulty of testing that many people?
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Old 16th September 2020, 01:06 AM   #1895
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Might any reluctance relate to the sheer numbers of UK citizens returning from Europe at the time? Given the difficulty of testing that many people?
I would think so. There weren't enough testing kits in the world in March to be testing everyone with symptoms, let alone people without symptoms nor contact with known cases or Chinese contacts.

I was refused a test in Australia in March even though I had symptoms, and had returned from Europe where I'd had contact with Chinese people 6 weeks earlier. I was told there weren't enough kits being made yet.
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Old 16th September 2020, 01:31 AM   #1896
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I would think so. There weren't enough testing kits in the world in March to be testing everyone with symptoms, let alone people without symptoms nor contact with known cases or Chinese contacts.

I was refused a test in Australia in March even though I had symptoms, and had returned from Europe where I'd had contact with Chinese people 6 weeks earlier. I was told there weren't enough kits being made yet.
It wasn't just the kits, it was the lab facilities to analyse the samples - and that is still a major problem. Qiuck tests keep being tried out, but dropped because "they aren't accurate enough" If we could test ten times the numbers, even a less accurate test would be a benefit.
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Old 16th September 2020, 03:35 AM   #1897
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
If we could test ten times the numbers, even a less accurate test would be a benefit.
I completely disagree with this. The more tests done with a less accurate methodology = increased numbers of false positives (unnecessary quarantining) and increased numbers of false negatives (potentially not quarantining).
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Old 16th September 2020, 04:08 AM   #1898
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Originally Posted by RoMo View Post
I completely disagree with this. The more tests done with a less accurate methodology = increased numbers of false positives (unnecessary quarantining) and increased numbers of false negatives (potentially not quarantining).
You are right that would be the effect in isolation, however it must be compared to the effect of lack of accurate tests leading to far more people having no idea they are infected and thus spreading the virus anyway. Neither is good, but I'd suggest the more tests the better, even if they are less accurate.
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Old 16th September 2020, 06:59 AM   #1899
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FANTASTIC NEWS for people who have pet mice and hamsters. Researchers have isolated an antibody that reduces the viral load in mice by an order of magnitude.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...cientists-find
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Old 16th September 2020, 07:06 AM   #1900
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
FANTASTIC NEWS for people who have pet mice and hamsters. Researchers have isolated an antibody that reduces the viral load in mice by an order of magnitude.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...cientists-find
Hope this soon gets upgraded to dogs and cats.
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Old 16th September 2020, 07:16 AM   #1901
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Hope this soon gets upgraded to dogs and cats.
And some people? What if pet owning is protective? That variable would account for a lot of vagaries- territorial, care facilities.....
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Old 16th September 2020, 07:25 AM   #1902
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
It was a ******** “lockdown” and you know it. It was unlocked far too quickly, and the results are there for all to see. Boris’ failure was unforgivable.
It was more that it was twoo weeks yoo late. Which was the latest that we knew lockdown was inevitable. As soon as Italy locked down
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Old 16th September 2020, 07:30 AM   #1903
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
FANTASTIC NEWS for people who have pet mice and hamsters. Researchers have isolated an antibody that reduces the viral load in mice by an order of magnitude.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...cientists-find
Even better news for the mice and hamsters themselves...
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Old 16th September 2020, 07:25 PM   #1904
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Eli Lilly is claiming that their experimental drug has shown some effectiveness. 1.7 percent of the people given the drug ended up being hospitalized as opposed to 6 percent of those given a placebo. However, the study only involved 452 people, so the number hospitalized was quite small even for the placebo group and I'm too lazy to try to calculate whether the result is statistically significant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/h...Jm-vroHrF_Dr54
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Old 16th September 2020, 08:28 PM   #1905
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Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

Reasonable speculation that masks may reduce severity even when not preventing disease.

Quote:
Recent virologic, epidemiologic, and ecologic data have led to the hypothesis that facial masking may also reduce the severity of disease among people who do become infected.3 This possibility is consistent with a long-standing theory of viral pathogenesis, which holds that the severity of disease is proportionate to the viral inoculum received.
Quote:
The typical rate of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be 40% by the CDC in mid-July, but asymptomatic infection rates are reported to be higher than 80% in settings with universal facial masking, which provides observational evidence for this hypothesis.
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Old 16th September 2020, 10:21 PM   #1906
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

Reasonable speculation that masks may reduce severity even when not preventing disease.
Thanks for bringing us this sort of thing. I appreciate your inputs in this thread.
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Old 16th September 2020, 11:23 PM   #1907
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Another twist:
Quote:
When researchers in China were analyzing hospital data of patients with Covid-19, they noticed an odd trend: Very few of the sick patients regularly wore glasses.
The speculation is that glasses might protect against droplets, or that glasses wearers might touch their eyes less.
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Old 16th September 2020, 11:35 PM   #1908
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
There's a correlation though not necessarily a causation - but still, it's cheap, it's plentiful (for now) and easy to take, so at least taking it if you can't get out in the sun seems sensible.
There’s other good reasons for making sure you’re not deficient in vitamin D; deficiency seems to be linked to dementia, as well, according to a Skeptics in the Pub talk I saw last week.

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Old 17th September 2020, 12:54 AM   #1909
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

Reasonable speculation that masks may reduce severity even when not preventing disease.

I mentioned and linked to similar speculations a few days ago in the Sweden thread.
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Old 17th September 2020, 01:42 AM   #1910
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An update from my neck of the woods. In early August Victoria (population 6m) had 700 cases a day, which resulted in a hard lockdown, travel bans and curfews. Today 28 cases and restrictions to ease soon in Melbourne, as they have in rural Victoria.

Most of us are pretty proud of this outcome, and think very highly of Premier Dan Andrews. Not so shock jocks and Murdoch rags who have been advocating for immediate end of restrictions and even intervention of the commonwealth government. More illegal protests are planned for the weekend by CTs and “free citizens”.

Yes, mistakes were made..... but not repeated. We have been fighting a war and winning. Yes it’s been costly, but what wars aren’t?

And this government is not deluded like other state governments. We know the virus won’t go away without a vaccine and that outbreaks will occur. We are ready for it. Well done Premier.
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Old 17th September 2020, 02:04 AM   #1911
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
An update from my neck of the woods. In early August Victoria (population 6m) had 700 cases a day, which resulted in a hard lockdown, travel bans and curfews. Today 28 cases and restrictions to ease soon in Melbourne, as they have in rural Victoria.

Most of us are pretty proud of this outcome, and think very highly of Premier Dan Andrews. Not so shock jocks and Murdoch rags who have been advocating for immediate end of restrictions and even intervention of the commonwealth government. More illegal protests are planned for the weekend by CTs and “free citizens”.

Yes, mistakes were made..... but not repeated. We have been fighting a war and winning. Yes it’s been costly, but what wars aren’t?

And this government is not deluded like other state governments. We know the virus won’t go away without a vaccine and that outbreaks will occur. We are ready for it. Well done Premier.
I've been very impressed by Daniel Andrews and also even PM Scott Morrison.

For the non-Australians, our state Premier Andrews is Labor (left-wing), and our country's Prime Minister Morrison is Liberal (right-wing).

Both sides have worked well together in their National Cabinet meetings and thanked each other in media conferences.

They've only occasionally been using the media scrum to fire up some sentiment on one side or the other.

The extremists on both sides can be annoying and even dangerous, but sometimes their opinions also force change for the better.
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Old 17th September 2020, 09:07 AM   #1912
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
There’s other good reasons for making sure you’re not deficient in vitamin D; deficiency seems to be linked to dementia, as well, according to a Skeptics in the Pub talk I saw last week.
....

Hadn't heard that, but apparently true. Another reason to take a pill.
Quote:
There isn't enough data to answer this question yet. Research suggests that people with very low levels of vitamin D in their blood, a condition known as vitamin D deficiency, are more likely to develop Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/faq-20111272

Quote:
Washington (AFP) - Older people who do not get enough vitamin D face a much higher risk of dementia or Alzheimer's disease, the largest study of its kind on the topic said Wednesday.
https://news.yahoo.com/lack-vitamin-...204030324.html
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Old 17th September 2020, 01:14 PM   #1913
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I've been very impressed by Daniel Andrews and also even PM Scott Morrison.
Haha! The view from the other side of the fence is that he's Stalin reincarnated.

Amazing how a disease became a political football.
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I thought this worth posting - a summary on vaccine and protection against diseases not included in the vaccine: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...bly-beneficial
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Old 17th September 2020, 01:26 PM   #1914
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

I thought this worth posting - a summary on vaccine and protection against diseases not included in the vaccine: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...bly-beneficial
Thanks for posting that, I found it interesting and informative.
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Old 17th September 2020, 06:46 PM   #1915
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The UK government are considering what they've described as a 'circuit break' of a few weeks, during which limitations will be imposed but schools and some businesses will remain open. With this news, I wonder if the latest plague of locusts are enroute to my local supermarket yet.
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Old 17th September 2020, 08:07 PM   #1916
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Originally Posted by PPL View Post
The UK government are considering what they've described as a 'circuit break' of a few weeks, during which limitations will be imposed but schools and some businesses will remain open. With this news, I wonder if the latest plague of locusts are enroute to my local supermarket yet.
Heading your way right now. Boris' pronouncement that a further lockdown would be economically damaging so it won't happen will mean you end up like Spain and France, and in a very short time.

The commentary I am seeing all too often is that the virus isn't killing young people in large numbers, so we can tolerate it. This is horribly flawed. Firstly, while it doesn't kill many young people, it can make them quite ill. My youngest son caught the virus in the UK (thanks guys) and has recovered, however he felt very sick for a few days, and more significantly, it took him a couple of months to fully recover. And this kid is an athlete without an ounce of fat.

Secondly, we have absolutely no idea of the long-term impact of this virus.

Boris' stubborn refusal to mitigate the virus and learn to live with it will cost thousands of lives and will arguably do more damage to the economy. I love the UK and hope to visit sometime next year. But I will not do so with an uncontrolled virus at large.
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Old 17th September 2020, 10:18 PM   #1917
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Haha! The view from the other side of the fence is that he's Stalin reincarnated.

Amazing how a disease became a political football.
Yes, they call Andrews, "Dictator Dan", and on Scott Micallef's Mad as Hell they had someone calling him, "Genghis Khandrews".

The comments on the ABC broadcasts of the media conferences would be hilarious if they weren't so ignorant.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I thought this worth posting - a summary on vaccine and protection against diseases not included in the vaccine: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...bly-beneficial
That's really rather nice!

I like this:

"Other happy accidents include protecting us from pathogens which are entirely unrelated to their target, reducing the severity of allergies, fighting certain cancers, and helping to prevent Alzheimer’s disease."

It's almost as if vaccines might have the properties that a "superfood" or homeopathic remedy are wished to by many.
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Old 17th September 2020, 11:22 PM   #1918
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
There seems to be some indication that a having a recent MMR vaccine can stimulate the immune system to resist covid. But it's not commonly given to adults. Is there any downside to getting it anyway?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ns/ar-BB16i1kR
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/healt...rus/index.html
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...ms-of-covid-19
Not to the individuals getting it. But the supply of the vaccine would be hard pressed to meet the demand if every adult started getting one.

As for not commonly given to adults, yes it is. Every college student and health care worker that has to show evidence of having had 2 MMRs have been getting MMRs as adults for 2 decades now (in the US).
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Old 18th September 2020, 03:58 AM   #1919
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This is an excellent article. I just don't understand why it's taken so long. I was reading similar stuff in May and certainly emailing friends with similar advice in April.

The Most Likely Way You’ll Get Infected With Covid-19
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Old 18th September 2020, 04:10 AM   #1920
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
This is an excellent article. I just don't understand why it's taken so long. I was reading similar stuff in May and certainly emailing friends with similar advice in April.

The Most Likely Way You’ll Get Infected With Covid-19
Thank you Rolfe. One of the things I take away from this is sanitise by all means for general virus protection, but don’t think this will effect the spread of covid. Instead prepare for wearing masks for a long period, or at least until a vaccine appears. And perhaps even beyond.
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