ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 22nd August 2015, 02:45 PM   #1
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 21,245
Air show crash seven dead

A Hawker Hunter performing aerobatics at the Shorham Air Show crashed on to a road killing at least 7 people in passing cars.

It failed to pull out of a loop and belly flopped in to the ground. Pilot still alive but critical, 14 injured.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34027260
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 03:33 PM   #2
Corsair 115
Penultimate Amazing
 
Corsair 115's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 14,519
Yes, saw this news earlier today. From the video it seems the aircraft started its loop from too low an altitude, and consequently didn't have enough altitude to spare when it completed the maneuver. The audio doesn't appear to indicate anything wrong with the engines, from what I can tell at least.
__________________
"We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve
to organize and measure the best of our abilities and skills, because that challenge is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and
one which we intend to win."
Corsair 115 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 03:43 PM   #3
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 21,245
Amazed that the pilot is still alive
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 05:46 PM   #4
Skeptical Greg
Agave Wine Connoisseur
 
Skeptical Greg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past ' Resume Speed ' .
Posts: 15,487
From what I can see in the video the loop was completed, so I would suspect a stall that was too close to the ground to recover from..
__________________
" The main problem I have with the idea of heaven, is the thought of
spending eternity with most of the people who claim to be going there. "
Skeptical Greg is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 06:57 PM   #5
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
 
Mike!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 31,729
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Amazed that the pilot is still alive
Same here. I'd assumed he'd ejected before impact, but you don't see that in the video, so I have to guess he didn't. How he lived through the crash is completely beyond imagination.
I have to admit, when I thought he'd ejected, it pissed me off. I was always under the impression it was ground in (no pun intended) that when you're piloting an aircraft in a failure, you do everything possible to avoid crashing in any sort of populated area, including a busy highway.
__________________
"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes...
Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."

Last edited by Mike!; 22nd August 2015 at 06:58 PM.
Mike! is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 07:58 PM   #6
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 21,927
I wonder if they even allow ejection seats on "civilianized" planes. The pilot is reported to be in critical condition. He's said to be a BA captain and former harrier pilot.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2015, 08:43 PM   #7
Doghouse Reilly
Adrift on an uncharted sea
 
Doghouse Reilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 2,976
Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Same here. I'd assumed he'd ejected before impact, but you don't see that in the video, so I have to guess he didn't. How he lived through the crash is completely beyond imagination.
I have to admit, when I thought he'd ejected, it pissed me off. I was always under the impression it was ground in (no pun intended) that when you're piloting an aircraft in a failure, you do everything possible to avoid crashing in any sort of populated area, including a busy highway.
Yeah, very sad and unfortunate that he landed right on the highway. Was he trying to land on the highway, or was it just bad luck that he hit it?
Doghouse Reilly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 01:26 AM   #8
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,143
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yeah, very sad and unfortunate that he landed right on the highway. Was he trying to land on the highway, or was it just bad luck that he hit it?
It looks like he was trying to complete the manoeuvre but ran out of space to pull up.

Uncensored video footage:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 03:59 AM   #9
Duffy Moon
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,588
Three of the victims have been identified, all young men.

One was a 24 year old personal trainer.
Two others were footballers for Worthing United FC, on their way to a match.
__________________
Sent from my ZX Spectrum 48K using Tapatalk
Duffy Moon is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 04:14 AM   #10
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,143
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I wonder if they even allow ejection seats on "civilianized" planes. The pilot is reported to be in critical condition. He's said to be a BA captain and former harrier pilot.
Under CAA rules the aircraft would almost certainly have had a live ejection seat

Originally Posted by CAP 632 Para 5.8
Where ejection seats are an integral part of the aircrew escape system, as specified in the relevant Pilots Notes, Flight or Aircrew Manuals, it is recommended that they be fully serviceable for all flights. Approval should be sought from the CAA (Application and Approvals) at the earliest opportunity if it is intended to operate with inert ejection seats (or other escape systems). It is unlikely that the CAA will allow swept-wing aircraft fitted with ejection seats to be flown unless the equipment is fully operational.
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 04:23 AM   #11
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Same here. I'd assumed he'd ejected before impact, but you don't see that in the video, so I have to guess he didn't. How he lived through the crash is completely beyond imagination.
I have to admit, when I thought he'd ejected, it pissed me off. I was always under the impression it was ground in (no pun intended) that when you're piloting an aircraft in a failure, you do everything possible to avoid crashing in any sort of populated area, including a busy highway.
We'll have to ask him if he thought he could make that field on the other side of the road.
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 04:28 AM   #12
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 21,245
There was a crash several years ago at the same air show. A WW2 Hurricane crashed and killed the pilot while doing a barrel roll.
It's the third air show cash in the UK this year.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 05:08 AM   #13
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
 
rjh01's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 24,626
I wonder if the pilot lost consciousness? The plane appeared to be going straight down for a long time.
__________________
This signature is for rent.
rjh01 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 06:29 AM   #14
Lerxst
Muse
 
Lerxst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Big D
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Same here. I'd assumed he'd ejected before impact, but you don't see that in the video, so I have to guess he didn't. How he lived through the crash is completely beyond imagination.
I have to admit, when I thought he'd ejected, it pissed me off. I was always under the impression it was ground in (no pun intended) that when you're piloting an aircraft in a failure, you do everything possible to avoid crashing in any sort of populated area, including a busy highway.
That is normally the case, but this was an airshow and he didn't have much time to think about where the plane was going to end up.
Lerxst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 06:47 AM   #15
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I wonder if the pilot lost consciousness? The plane appeared to be going straight down for a long time.
That may just be the video. I got the impression we were looking at the loop from a straight on view. It's like the old thing about tornadoes, if they don't appear to be moving they're coming straight at you.
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 08:18 AM   #16
baron
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,627
Seems a little more regulation is needed at these shows. Considering the relatively tiny number of flights there seem to have been a lot of crashes recently, this one being the worst. Pull a donut in a McDonald's and you'll get ticketed by the police, but apparently doing barrel rolls above a main road in a seven tonne aircraft is OK.
baron is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 08:29 AM   #17
commandlinegamer
Philosopher
 
commandlinegamer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Mazes of Menace
Posts: 8,869
A bit early to be jumping to any sort of conclusions.

If the pilot pulls through it may help establish what happened, but I'm sure a thorough inquiry will be held regardless.
__________________
He bade me take any rug in the house.
commandlinegamer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 08:54 AM   #18
Beerina
Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions
 
Beerina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 29,506
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I wonder if they even allow ejection seats on "civilianized" planes.
I don't see why not, it's not a Gatling gun or a bomb. Maintaining it all these years is another story!

It's been since WWI that people in power could get away with demanding the pilot go down with the plane (to make sure he does everything possible to save those expensive, expensive planes.)
__________________
"Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson

The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales now! More, cheaper, better games, right? Right?

Last edited by Beerina; 23rd August 2015 at 08:57 AM.
Beerina is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 09:02 AM   #19
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 21,245
Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
I don't see why not, it's not a Gatling gun or a bomb. Maintaining it all these years is another story!

It's been since WWI that people in power could get away with demanding the pilot go down with the plane (to make sure he does everything possible to save those expensive, expensive planes.)
But experienced pilots are worth more than a plane as the Luftwaffe found out in the Battle of Britain.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 09:10 AM   #20
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 20,852
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But experienced pilots are worth more than a plane as the Luftwaffe found out in the Battle of Britain.
Beat me to it.

They really found that out towards the end when they had the most formidable fighter of the war (ME262) but few experienced pilots that weren't heading for a burn out*.



*I was reading a book recently, mostly about operational analysis in WWII but also other engineering aspects of it, and one difference between the Allies and the Germans and Japanese (I can't recall anything about the Italians) was that the British Empire and US would rest their pilots more, and have experienced ones training whilst the Germans and Japanese tended to leave their experienced ones in the front line, where they eventually burnt out and where they were less able to influence as many new pilots, which also compounded their logistical problems and inability to fly as often.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 10:51 AM   #21
Corsair 115
Penultimate Amazing
 
Corsair 115's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 14,519
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But experienced pilots are worth more than a plane as the Luftwaffe found out in the Battle of Britain.

"It's the man, not the machine." — Chuck Yeager


Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
*I was reading a book recently, mostly about operational analysis in WWII but also other engineering aspects of it, and one difference between the Allies and the Germans and Japanese (I can't recall anything about the Italians) was that the British Empire and US would rest their pilots more, and have experienced ones training whilst the Germans and Japanese tended to leave their experienced ones in the front line, where they eventually burnt out and where they were less able to influence as many new pilots, which also compounded their logistical problems and inability to fly as often.

That's correct. The U.S. typically sent their veteran pilots back home after they finished their tour (though some elected to serve additional tours) and used their knowledge to train the next group of up-and-coming pilots. The Germans were never really able to do this due to the pressures of fighting on multiple fronts—they needed every pilot they could get and couldn't spare combat veterans not being active. It was much the same for the Japanese, though part of it for them is that they tended to view their personnel as expendable.

Experience was vital, especially for fighter pilots. The stats I recall seeing are that 5% of pilots accounted for 40% of aerial kills, meaning that only a small number of pilots had the ability to operate as highly effective fighter pilots. A trait known as 'situational awareness' was hugely important. Marksmanship was another key ability—some pilots were expert shots with their aircraft; most needed the 'shotgun' approach to hit the enemy.
__________________
"We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve
to organize and measure the best of our abilities and skills, because that challenge is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and
one which we intend to win."
Corsair 115 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 10:52 AM   #22
Skeptical Greg
Agave Wine Connoisseur
 
Skeptical Greg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past ' Resume Speed ' .
Posts: 15,487
Originally Posted by ohms View Post
It looks like he was trying to complete the manoeuvre but ran out of space to pull up.

Uncensored video footage:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
It's not that easy to see, but the plane had actually flattened out right before impact.

It wasn't a question of pulling up, there was very little forward momentum..

The aircraft pancaked into the ground. The lack of velocity would seem to be what made the crash survivable..

( Click for more detail )
Attached Images
File Type: jpg crash.jpg (56.7 KB, 52 views)
__________________
" The main problem I have with the idea of heaven, is the thought of
spending eternity with most of the people who claim to be going there. "
Skeptical Greg is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 11:10 AM   #23
Information Analyst
Philosopher
 
Information Analyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 9,488
Originally Posted by baron View Post
Seems a little more regulation is needed at these shows.
There already is a lot of UK regulation governing what pilots can do, and where they do it. The position of the road (not a motorway) may seem problematic in retrospect, but a situation in which and aircraft scythed across it may have seemed highly unlikely.
Quote:
Considering the relatively tiny number of flights there seem to have been a lot of crashes recently, this one being the worst.
How do you quantify that? There are more air shows that most people are aaware of, often with high-profile aircraft doing multiple events in the same day.
Information Analyst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 12:00 PM   #24
Duffy Moon
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,588
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
There are more air shows that most people are aware of, often with high-profile aircraft doing multiple events in the same day.
Avro Vulcan XH558 was due to appear at Shoreham shortly after the crash.
This appearance was cancelled and it went onto its next appointments at Bournemouth and Dawlish.
__________________
Sent from my ZX Spectrum 48K using Tapatalk
Duffy Moon is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 12:06 PM   #25
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I wonder if they even allow ejection seats on "civilianized" planes.
It's safety gear. It would stay.
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 02:23 PM   #26
Lerxst
Muse
 
Lerxst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Big D
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by Gawdzilla Sama View Post
It's safety gear. It would stay.
Right, and if the plane was designed to have an ejection system it is not a simple matter to remove it. You would also risk rendering the aircraft no longer airworthy as those systems have to be operable in order for the aircraft to be certified to fly.
Lerxst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 03:28 PM   #27
Molinaro
Illuminator
 
Molinaro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,395
Police are now saying 11 people are "highly likely" to be dead. I imaging much of the remains are going to very difficult to identify.
__________________
100% Cannuck!
Molinaro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2015, 03:55 PM   #28
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 21,245
Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
Right, and if the plane was designed to have an ejection system it is not a simple matter to remove it. You would also risk rendering the aircraft no longer airworthy as those systems have to be operable in order for the aircraft to be certified to fly.
It's quite easy to do. remove the rocket and pin the seat. Secure the canopy or, in the case of those that use a det chord to shatter the canopy remove that.

A lot of ex fighters in private hands have the ejector seats disabled.

They are only safe to use if you have had training in their use.

Take a look at International Jets. http://www.internationaljets.com/

They specialise in selling and refurbing the Aero Vodochody L-39C Albatros for private use. there are a lot of them in private hands.
Most have the ejection system disabled.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 04:25 AM   #29
baron
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,627
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
There already is a lot of UK regulation governing what pilots can do, and where they do it. The position of the road (not a motorway) may seem problematic in retrospect, but a situation in which and aircraft scythed across it may have seemed highly unlikely.
Pushing a 60-year old plane to its limits, upside down over a busy road comes with unacceptable risk AFAIC. Most manoeuvres of this kind take place over the sea or open fields. There's a reason air shows don't take place over built-up areas and this is it.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
How do you quantify that? There are more air shows that most people are aaware of, often with high-profile aircraft doing multiple events in the same day.
There have been three fatal crashes at air shows this summer already, with at least 13 dead in total, possibly over 20. If you compare that with commercial air flight I'd estimate you were talking tens of thousands of percentage points more risk, hence my comment.

I'm certainly not in favour of banning air shows or even making them onerously regulated, and if the common sense - with relation to non-participants - shown at most shows was replicated at all of them (i.e. not flying upside down above busy roads) then I'd deem the risk mitigation perfectly acceptable.
baron is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 04:33 AM   #30
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
He didn't start over the road and nose-dive into the tarmac. Just sayin'.
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 06:22 AM   #31
Information Analyst
Philosopher
 
Information Analyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 9,488
Originally Posted by baron View Post
Pushing a 60-year old plane to its limits, upside down over a busy road comes with unacceptable risk AFAIC. Most manoeuvres of this kind take place over the sea or open fields. There's a reason air shows don't take place over built-up areas and this is it.
You think that there aren't set standards to determine what manoeuvres vintage aircraft will be capable of performing? Airworthiness is a constant assessment.

Quote:
There have been three fatal crashes at air shows this summer already, with at least 13 dead in total, possibly over 20. If you compare that with commercial air flight I'd estimate you were talking tens of thousands of percentage points more risk, hence my comment.

I'm certainly not in favour of banning air shows or even making them onerously regulated, and if the common sense - with relation to non-participants - shown at most shows was replicated at all of them (i.e. not flying upside down above busy roads) then I'd deem the risk mitigation perfectly acceptable.
Three crew fatalities out of how many air shows? These are the first non-crew fatalities at any British airshow since 1952. I would say that that points to a pretty good safety record.
Information Analyst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 06:39 AM   #32
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5,434
I have a lot of family in that area so I'm keeping a close eye on the casualty lists.

I live away from there now, on the edge of what I understand is a designated "aerobatic " zone, we have a lot of planes doing loop-the-loops anyway. I'm always concerned as although area is pretty much uninhabited the planes anecdote to, and often stray over,our town of about 11,000.
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 09:38 AM   #33
Cl1mh4224rd
Philosopher
 
Cl1mh4224rd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 9,778
Originally Posted by Molinaro View Post
Police are now saying 11 people are "highly likely" to be dead. I imaging much of the remains are going to very difficult to identify.

Possibly up to 20 now, according to CNN.

ETA: Actually, I think that's just CNN being CNN. Meh.

Last edited by Cl1mh4224rd; 24th August 2015 at 09:39 AM.
Cl1mh4224rd is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 09:50 AM   #34
baron
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,627
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You think that there aren't set standards to determine what manoeuvres vintage aircraft will be capable of performing? Airworthiness is a constant assessment.
You have responded to something other than what I wrote. Note the words 'busy' and 'road'. If I drive my car at 170mph down the motorway then my defence that it's well maintained isn't going to cut much ice. If I drive at 170mph on the track nobody's going to complain (except me when I crash it).

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Three crew fatalities out of how many air shows? These are the first non-crew fatalities at any British airshow since 1952. I would say that that points to a pretty good safety record.
The safety record is better measured by how many planes crash, not the death toll. When a plane crashes the potential for multiple casualties is always there. Why not reduce this by not performing stunts over places where members of the public are congregated?
baron is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 09:52 AM   #35
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
My brother was in Germany when they had that big crash back in the '80s. Anybody remember the name/date on that?
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 10:56 AM   #36
Information Analyst
Philosopher
 
Information Analyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 9,488
Originally Posted by baron View Post
You have responded to something other than what I wrote. Note the words 'busy' and 'road'. If I drive my car at 170mph down the motorway then my defence that it's well maintained isn't going to cut much ice. If I drive at 170mph on the track nobody's going to complain (except me when I crash it).
Err... no... I was responding to what I actually quoted you saying, i.e.:

Quote:
Pushing a 60-year old plane to its limits, upside down over a busy road comes with unacceptable risk AFAIC. Most manoeuvres of this kind take place over the sea or open fields. There's a reason air shows don't take place over built-up areas and this is it.
Having been designed and deployed as a front-line fighter, I can assure you that the relatively gentle manoeuvres performed at airshows are not even remotely pushing it to its limits. Those limits, of course, are determined by the airworthiness of the aircraft in question. We still yet don't actually know what happened, whether it was pilot error or a mechanical fault, and even if the latter whether it can be ascribed to the age of the aircraft or another issue. You're also talking as if the proximity of the road has never been a consideration as regards what manoeuvres could be carried out, rather than it being more likely that it was considered that the likelihood of a crash such as this happening was far too remote. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but really in terms of a freak combination of factors having an outcome that nobody could possibly have foreseen is on a par with the Great Heck rail crash. Gee, if only someone could have predicted that - amongst other factors - a driver towing a trailer might fall asleep at the wheel and veer off a motorway embankment so gently that they did so before the safety barriers started, and ended up on a busy rail line....

Quote:
The safety record is better measured by how many planes crash, not the death toll. When a plane crashes the potential for multiple casualties is always there.
Which bit of "no non-crew fatalities since 1952" are you having trouble understanding? Harsh lessons were learned 63 years ago, and the practices adopted in their wake have meant that the only airshow fatalities in the UK until this week were aircraft crew or passengers (the latter have been prohibited since six were killed in a crash in 1980, when the pilot performed a manoeuvre he had previously been expressly refused permission to do).

Quote:
Why not reduce this by not performing stunts over places where members of the public are congregated?
You're talking as if these things are not already regulated. The road is a tiny part of the landscape around their airport. A second or two either way, and the aircraft would have crashed either before it reached it, or the other side of it. People stand a far greater risk of being killed or injured in a "normal" RTA than they do in attending or merely driving past an airshow.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 24th August 2015 at 11:32 AM.
Information Analyst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 11:15 AM   #37
Information Analyst
Philosopher
 
Information Analyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 9,488
Originally Posted by Gawdzilla Sama View Post
My brother was in Germany when they had that big crash back in the '80s. Anybody remember the name/date on that?
Presumably the 1988 Ramstein air show, when aircraft of the the Italian Air Force display team collided, resulting in 67 fatalities. This was during a manoeuvre towards the crowd. I believe that the manoeuvre would not have been allowed at a UK airshow in light of restrictions first introduced after the 1952 Farnborough crash.
Information Analyst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 11:51 AM   #38
Roger Ramjets
Illuminator
 
Roger Ramjets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,081
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
the relatively gentle manoeuvres performed at airshows are not even remotely pushing it to its limits.
A high speed stall and pancaking into the ground is not pushing it to its limits? You're right - well over its limits would be a more accurate description.
__________________
We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.
Roger Ramjets is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 11:53 AM   #39
Gawdzilla Sama
121.92-meter mutant fire-breathing lizard-thingy
 
Gawdzilla Sama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Northern St. Louis County, Missouri.
Posts: 42,180
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Presumably the 1988 Ramstein air show, when aircraft of the the Italian Air Force display team collided, resulting in 67 fatalities. This was during a manoeuvre towards the crowd. I believe that the manoeuvre would not have been allowed at a UK airshow in light of restrictions first introduced after the 1952 Farnborough crash.
Thanks, sounds right.
__________________
Guns that are instantly available for use are instantly available for misuse.
World War II Diplomatic and Political Resources
Hyperwar, WWII Military History
Buying conspiracy books is a voluntary tax on stupid.
Gawdzilla Sama is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2015, 11:58 AM   #40
baron
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,627
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Err... no... I was responding to what I actually quoted you saying, i.e.:
Having been designed and deployed as a front-line fighter, I can assure you that the relatively gentle manoeuvres performed at airshows are not even remotely pushing it to its limits. Those limits, of course, are determined by the airworthiness of the aircraft in question.
The limits aren't the be-all and end all. If I drive down the motorway at 170mph I'm not safe just because my car can do 185. What's more pertinent are things like this:

Quote:
A former airshow promoter claimed the RAF's famous Red Arrows display team would never perform at Shoreham because they fear a 'major accident'.

Pilots believe the 'danger level' is 'too high' and turn down the chance to perform 'every year' because any crash would 'be a disaster', he said.
Yes, one plane is not the same as a whole bunch of them but clearly there are significant concerns about the surrounding area.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...g-brother.html

And if the risk factor is currently perfectly acceptable I wonder why the CAA would say:

Quote:
Flying displays over land by vintage jet aircraft will be significantly restricted until further notice.
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
We still yet don't actually know what happened, whether it was pilot error or a mechanical fault, and even if the latter whether it can be ascribed to the age of the aircraft or another issue.
Irrelevant. Pilots will always make errors, old machinery will always fail. Hence, don't fly upside-down over busy roads.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You're also talking as if the proximity of the road has never been a consideration as regards what manoeuvres could be carried out, rather than it being more likely that it was considered that the likelihood of a crash such as this happening was far too remote.
Clearly it wasn't remote enough. You talk like the chances of a 60 year old plane flying upside down above a busy road then crashing are about the same as being hit by a meteor. Well, they're not. If the chances of a plane crashing was as minuscule as you make out there wouldn't be any regulations other than the plane's upkeep and pilot's experience. As I already pointed out, there have been three fatal incidents this year and who knows how many crashes. When a single crash has the potential to kill dozens then it makes sense not to fly directly over people whilst performing stunts.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but really in terms of a freak combination of factors having an outcome that nobody could possibly have foreseen is on a par with the Great Heck rail crash. Gee, if only someone could have predicted that - amongst other factors - a driver towing a trailer might fall asleep at the wheel and veer off a motorway embankment so gently that they did so before the safety barriers started, and ended up on a busy rail line....
So what are these freak combination of factors? What methods have you used to discount the possibility of a single factor? The upshot is, the point is moot. Had the plane not been flying above a road or inhabited area the disaster would not have happened. It's a simple concept.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Which bit of "no non-crew fatalities since 1952" are you having trouble understanding? Harsh lessons were learned 63 years ago, and the practices adopted in their wake have meant that the only airshow fatalities in the UK until this week were aircraft crew.
I'm not repeating myself. Read what I wrote originally, I've already answered that point.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You're talking as if these things are not already regulated. The road is a tiny part of the landscape around their airport. A second or two either way, and the aircraft would have crashed either before it reached it, or the other side of it.
'A second or two either way' would prevent practically every single incidence of one thing crashing into another.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
People stand a far greater risk of being killed or injured in a "normal" RTA than they do in attending or merely driving past an airshow.
Wow, that's a revelation. I really did think that over 1700 people a year die as a result of air show crashes. That's my argument foiled, drat!

So anyway, it's easily solved. If as a result of this accident the regulations are examined and deemed satisfactory then I will come back on this thread and post that I must have been mistaken as to the risk factor as people more knowledgeable than me have deemed it safe. If, however, the regulations are tightened to involve further restrictions regarding flying over inhabited areas then I'm sure you'll be back and posting that your assessment of the risk factor was quite simply wrong. I'm sure you'll be amenable to this.
baron is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:22 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.