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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 3rd August 2022, 01:38 PM   #2281
marting
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It does show that prior infection builds a better wall, but at the cost of a lot more deaths overall.
Right. The much higher cumulative infections in most other countries (US, UK, EU) has combined with vaccination to create fairly strong hybrid immunity so lower deaths from BA.5 but at a steep cost already paid.

Places like AU and NZ getting hit somewhat harder with BA.5. Vaxed but not as much prior infection so more immune escape. Still pretty low IFR rates compared to the variants before Omicron.

Here in California, new infections are declining along with positivity rates. BA.4/5 is now 95% of all infections with a tiny bit of prior variants continuing to decline. Nothing new to challenge them. Looking good for the next several months and with luck more. If nothing new shows up in the next few months the odds of a more transmissible variant popping up get much smaller as it's proportional to the number infected worldwide.

On another note: Remember this report of pandemic preparedness that came out in late 2019?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...ess-pandemics/

USA and UK ranked #1 and 2. ROFLMAO

We here in the States continue to imagine outselves as #1 in all things. Not very smart, IMO.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 06:33 PM   #2282
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Places like AU and NZ getting hit somewhat harder with BA.5. Vaxed but not as much prior infection so more immune escape. Still pretty low IFR rates compared to the variants before Omicron.
I'm fairly sure we've both turned the corner and the worst of the wave is behind us.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
On another note: Remember this report of pandemic preparedness that came out in late 2019?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...ess-pandemics/

USA and UK ranked #1 and 2. ROFLMAO

We here in the States continue to imagine outselves as #1 in all things. Not very smart, IMO.
Well, you do rank #1.

Just not quite in the way the report suggested.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 06:53 PM   #2283
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm fairly sure we've both turned the corner and the worst of the wave is behind us.
Lack of competing variants is looking good. Eric Topol also notes this.

Quote:
This is as good as we can ask right now. No major new variant being detected that has the potential to compete with BA.5. Subject to change, of course, but at least this should provide a respite.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...48327845679105

Yes!
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Old 3rd August 2022, 08:17 PM   #2284
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And it needs to be noted that to seriously compete, a new variant would need to be more infectious than BA5, and since 2.75 hasn't, I don't believe we'll see one.

I'm now quite sure this is the end game. There will be minor waves now and then, but not the crippling numbers we've seen so far. Right now, infection totals are dropping fast, as are deaths.

I think it's time to crack the champagne and toast the demise of covid!
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Old 4th August 2022, 03:36 AM   #2285
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And it needs to be noted that to seriously compete, a new variant would need to be more infectious than BA5, and since 2.75 hasn't, I don't believe we'll see one.

I'm now quite sure this is the end game. There will be minor waves now and then, but not the crippling numbers we've seen so far. Right now, infection totals are dropping fast, as are deaths.

I think it's time to crack the champagne and toast the demise of covid!
It would seem likely that there must be some sort of upper limit to infectiousness due to the limits of human biology.
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Old 4th August 2022, 03:01 PM   #2286
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
It would seem likely that there must be some sort of upper limit to infectiousness due to the limits of human biology.
It's a combination of immune escape and intrinsic infectiousness. And mutations are random processes. The probability of gene changes is a function of the number infected at any given time. A genetic sequence change that survives from a single infected individual is not uncommon and fully sequencing cases that occur from exposure to one person (index patient) they can often be tracked and isolated from infections that arose elsewhere.

The more infections that are extant at any given time, the higher the probability that a large mutation set will occur that is more fit. "Fitness" is relative to the current state of immunity from prior infections as well as vaccination.

As BA.5 peaks and declines from that peak around the World, the probability of a more fit variant will decrease. Also, the more time that goes by as a disease evolves, the more likely the disease will be stuck in a local minimum (sorry for the math term) and is unable to generate mutations that will kick it out of that local minimum.

But, unlike T cells, antibody immunity is short lived similar to coronavirus common colds.

If a month goes by without some new variant exhibiting higher fitness against the immunity wall BA.5 and its predecessors produced, the more likely it is that this is the end of the pandemic stage and we will enter a longer, lower level of ebb and flow as SARS-CoV-2 joins the other circulating coronaviruses.
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Old 4th August 2022, 07:19 PM   #2287
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UK's ONS report on long covid

Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK: 4 August 2022

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uk/4august2022


As of 2 July 2022, 5.0% of people who were not in and not looking for paid work were experiencing self-reported long COVID. This was higher than for the other employment statuses: unemployed (3.5%), employed (3.3%), retired (2.9%) and students (1.7%).

Lancet Study:
Persistence of somatic symptoms after COVID-19 in the Netherlands: an observational cohort study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...214-4/fulltext
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Old 4th August 2022, 08:24 PM   #2288
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
UK's ONS report on long covid
Still a lot of questions unanswered.

From the Dutch study:

Quote:
Nevertheless, our study cannot provide definitive information on the underlying mechanisms driving post-COVID-19-related symptoms.
Sounds way too much like CFS/ME for my liking.

More research needed.
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Old 4th August 2022, 08:42 PM   #2289
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More research needed.
It's fundamentally a hard problem. Confounders galore and there really is no way adjust for most of them.

What's needed are specific objective measures that correlate to the myriad symptoms. Not a lot to date.

But yeah, more research is needed. I think we are at the turning point where research in this area will get more resources as the pandemic winds down. Should know a lot more in the next year.
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Old 4th August 2022, 09:51 PM   #2290
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
USA and UK ranked #1 and 2. ROFLMAO

We here in the States continue to imagine outselves as #1 in all things. Not very smart, IMO.
FWIW, IIRC, the indicators to get that #1 were reasonable. It's just that they didn't account for sabotage leadership and traitorous propaganda. Having a good plan prepared is an excellent part of preparedness ratings, for example. It's just pretty worthless in practice when it's not actually used.
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Old 5th August 2022, 11:30 AM   #2291
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post



Sounds way too much like CFS/ME for my liking.
.
Yes, there do seem to be a lot of similarities. The suspicion is that there is a dysfunction in the mitochondria as a result of the viral infection. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680046/
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Old 5th August 2022, 12:55 PM   #2292
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Yes, there do seem to be a lot of similarities. The suspicion is that there is a dysfunction in the mitochondria as a result of the viral infection. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680046/
Dear old Warren Tate. I referenced him in my ME/CFS thread a few years back. Warren has been the leading voice in ME research, which is appropriate since it was known as Tapanui 'Flu for a while, and that's just down the road from him.

The whole thing smacks of a medical "god of the gaps" attempt to find an answer in the only place we can't discount.

The conclusion gives the game away:

Quote:
A vicious circle exists: without a biochemical diagnostic test it is difficult to be certain which patients have ME/CFS and not another fatigue illness with overlapping symptoms, but determining a valid test requires identifying an homogenous group of test subjects. If ME/CFS is indeed a state of CoQ10 deficiency particularly in high energy-demand organs like the brain then an effective way of assessing CoQ10 is needed.
It looks more and more to me like both ME/CFS and long covid should be returned to the DSM until an actual physical mechanism is found.
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Old 6th August 2022, 01:34 AM   #2293
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https://www.theguardian.com/science/...eat-long-covid
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full....202108-1903LE
https://www.zrtlab.com/blog/archive/...dysregulation/
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Old 6th August 2022, 12:49 PM   #2294
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Subvariant of BA.4, BA4.6, is popping up and showing some degree of increase. Less than half the rate of earlier variant increases at similar points in time. Looks like about a 5 to 10% increase per week overall but given the declining net incidence will likely slow the overall prevalence decline in the next month or so. Too soon to tell what its current Rt is. Most likely slight above 1.0. Could produce another, smaller wave a few months from now.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...nt-proportions

BA.4.6 has a similar mutation to BA.1.1 so its impact in different countries may depend on what prior waves have been seen.
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Old 6th August 2022, 03:43 PM   #2295
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Speculative.

Quote:
While mitochondria are not the main driving factor in any of these diseases, they are thought to be a key secondary factor. “The majority of heart failure or cardiac dysfunction is believed to be mediated by mitochondrial dysfunction involving the heart,” says Raman.

As a result, if mitochondrial drugs prove effective in long Covid and ME/CFS, they may have applications in other illnesses, while mitochondrial DNA editing to understand the effects of various mutations could shed further light on how the ageing process manifests in our cells.
Then...

Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Quote:
Our study has several limitations, including a small cohort size, retrospective methodology, and lack of a contemporaneous control, relying on comparisons with historical cohorts that have distinct demographics. Therefore, our findings may not be generalizable and should be considered hypothesis-generating.
ok....

Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Srsly?

It's a blog.

Written by one Dr. Tracy Tranchitella, who received her naturopathic doctorate degree in 1998 from Southwest College of Naturopathic Medicine.

Seems legit.

(bolding mine throughout)
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Old 8th August 2022, 08:09 PM   #2296
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If anyone's been keeping watch, covid numbers have fallen off a cliff in the past 10 days, right across the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old 9th August 2022, 12:36 AM   #2297
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I think the current wave in Japan (the 7th) got started a little later than in other parts. Doesn't seem to have peaked here quite yet, but based on the effective reproduction number, it should peak soon. Compared to the previous wave, active cases are close to 2 million, whereas they never reached 1 million in the last wave. Nevertheless, deaths still seem to be lower than in the last wave.

It continues a trend of higher infectivity, but lower mortality.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/japan

Apparently Our World in Data stopped updating the positivity rate of Covid tests as of June 23rd, 2022. That's too bad. My back of the envelope calculation from the Toyo Keizai data is that over 80% of the Covid tests have been positive in the last 10 days in Japan. 80%. Which means most people testing are testing positive.
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Old 11th August 2022, 09:42 AM   #2298
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Daily new cases in the UK according to the ZOE Covid Symptom study have been dropping, but the rate of decline has levelled off in the last couple of days. Have to wait and see if they stay level, drop or go up again.
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Old 11th August 2022, 09:49 AM   #2299
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Daily new cases in the UK according to the ZOE Covid Symptom study have been dropping, but the rate of decline has levelled off in the last couple of days. Have to wait and see if they stay level, drop or go up again.
Is there another superinfectious variant on the horizon? That might be the deciding factor.
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Old 11th August 2022, 03:57 PM   #2300
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CDC drops quarantine, distancing recommendations for COVID
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Old Yesterday, 06:26 PM   #2301
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Bob Wachter

Best news: no nasty new variant poised to take place of BA.5 (tho BA.4.6 bears watching). If this holds: 1) we should enjoy a Fall lull; & 2) new BA.5-specific booster (rolling out in Sept.) will work better than if it was confronting a new foe.
Enjoy your end-of-summer!

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/stat...34980706164736
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