The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Agreed. It's plausibly the same general location but I can't identify any features that match the buildings or indeed identify the vehicle. May well be a true story but the video is not proof so far as I can see. In the last few seconds as the view widens we can see it's a larger group of buildings, with fires in other places too, so it's a larger attack than a single strike on a specific vehicle target.

I'd agree with this not being proof, in and of itself, too. It did look like a similar vehicle to me, though. With that said, as the tale being told goes, it managed to get roughly 100 meters away in the end and the apparent drone footage here is split up into start and end, skipping much of the actual shelling that happened. To add to that, this isn't the only footage available of the attack there. For example, other footage is further down the thread that helps fill in more details, including some of the shelling that likely gave rise to a lot of that smoke, along with the claim that the footage has been geolocated and matches. Overall, I'd count this claim as... probably true, but plausibly false.

[theprestige]

Another way to look at the engagement: "A Russian 'Tulip' heavy mortar operated for some time, doing _____ damage to Ukrainian forces, before the Ukrainians were able to track it down with a drone and direct fire onto it."

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Craig4

There's another video further down that shows the whole engagement. It did move from the original spot but it was in the same building complex when the Ukrainians took it out.

Ah. I didn't see that, thanks. (As a non-user of Twitter I can follow the link but scrolling past the original thread just gets me a log in or sign up banner.)

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

The Ukrainian government says it won't agree a ceasefire deal with Russia that involves giving up territory.
Kyiv would not follow calls in the West for an urgent ceasefire that involved Russian forces remaining in territory they occupy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

[Lord Emsworth]

I am near certain it is the same area, although the vehicle had to run a few hundred meters before it was hit.

Comparing two still from two different vids:

1. https://twitter.com/i/status/1528286406665285633 (about 12 seconds in)
2. https://twitter.com/i/status/1527752480045551617 (39 seconds in)



I had to rotate, crop and scale this. Quality is beyond the pale, of course.

The building do match to some extent. But the outline of that dark patch of tarmac, or whatever it is? Very compelling to me.

[eerok]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

Ukraine understands the situation perfectly, just as they did in 2014. Russia is entitled to nothing, but it intends to take everything. There's no common ground on which to negotiate.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth

I am near certain it is the same area, although the vehicle had to run a few hundred meters before it was hit.

Comparing two still from two different vids:

1. https://twitter.com/i/status/1528286406665285633 (about 12 seconds in)
2. https://twitter.com/i/status/1527752480045551617 (39 seconds in)

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...a61018af30.png

I had to rotate, crop and scale this. Quality is beyond the pale, of course.

The building do match to some extent. But the outline of that dark patch of tarmac, or whatever it is? Very compelling to me.

Well spotted. And the low outbuildings match, as do the two gas cylinders and the trees. Yes, that's clearly the spot where the original Russian video was shot.

[Lord Emsworth]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Ah. I didn't see that, thanks. (As a non-user of Twitter I can follow the link but scrolling past the original thread just gets me a log in or sign up banner.)

Just click "Log in" and you'll be able to close the next banner that appears, which allows you to scroll further. (At some point that banner will reappear though)

[Captain_Swoop]

The Polish president has thanked Ukraine for defending Europe against what he called “Russian imperialism”.

He said recent calls for Kyiv to negotiate with President Putin, and even give into some of his demands, were disturbing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Well spotted. And the low outbuildings match, as do the two gas cylinders and the trees. Yes, that's clearly the spot where the original Russian video was shot.

This shows an angle to the risk Russia faces in trying to show much of any video from inside Ukraine.

Ukraine doesn't always need satellite imagery or drones to find stuff (although it is very frequently useful and indispensable). Sometimes its just a Ukrainian person seeing the video and saying "Oh, that place! That's my neighbor's cousins farm! I used to work there from time to time."

Point it out on a map, and then drones and arty go get it.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

I disagree strongly with this argument.

At the time that Austria and the Sudetenland were conceded, Nazi Germany was at the beginning of a substantial military buildup. Their army was not yet ready to engage in open warfare. Those early concessions gave Hitler some easy wins early on, helped to validate his imperialist vision in the eyes of his generals, and bought time for him to substantially advance his rearmament program before properly going to war.

Conversely, Russia's militarization is in a downward spiral. There is no short-term economic surge to fund a rapid expansion and modernization. There is no morale boost from easy wins early on. There is no validation of Putin's imperialist vision, in the Ukrainian quagmire. He's not buying time to expand and modernize his army. He's just grinding down the rotten nub of the badly decayed Soviet war machine.

I think that, pragmatically, ceding territory to gain a cease fire only buys time for Russia's neighbors to complete their military modernization and expansion programs. Ten years, or even five, of peace will only widen the numerical, technological, and competency gap in Ukraine's favor. Making concessions to Hitler was a bad idea, because the German economy could actually take advantage the time gained. Buying time in this conflict confers no similar advantage on Russia. Quite the opposite!

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I think that, pragmatically, ceding territory to gain a cease fire only buys time for Russia's neighbors to complete their military modernization and expansion programs. Ten years, or even five, of peace will only widen the numerical, technological, and competency gap in Ukraine's favor. Making concessions to Hitler was a bad idea, because the German economy could actually take advantage the time gained. Buying time in this conflict confers no similar advantage on Russia. Quite the opposite!

So Ukraine gives territory to Russia to 'buy time'.

Then what? how do they get it back again without being the aggressor and breaking the treaty they signed up to?

[Captain_Swoop]

Lithuania is no longer importing energy from Russia as of today.

Its energy minister said purchases of gas, oil and electricity from Moscow were stopping to show "solidarity" with Ukraine - and to cut funding for the "Russian war machine".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

[Mike!]

What probably explains Putin's "special military operation" best is, he's a power mad dick.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

So Ukraine gives territory to Russia to 'buy time'.

Then what? how do they get it back again without being the aggressor and breaking the treaty they signed up to?

My point is that while there may be good reasons to continue the fight, "ceding Donbass to buy peace would benefit Putin the way ceding Sudetenland benefited Hitler" isn't one of them.

The parallel between the two only goes so far.

If you want to argue for some other reason why Ukraine should keep fighting, be my guest.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I don't think this was just a money problem, I believe this cutting-off stemmed more from a desire to "punish" Crimeans because they had chosen to join Russia.

You're the only one who believes that Crimeans actually chose to join Russia.

Crimea hosts a major Russian naval base and staging area for Russian forces. Cutting off the water supply to that is totally reasonable.

[junkshop]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)

Credit where credit's due:

https://twitter.com/TheMuleFactor/st...DQ4R5J9Jw&s=19

Originally Posted by @TheMuleFactor, in reply to @Captainswoop1

...Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)...

[crescent]

Wagner Group: Russian semi-governmental military organization led by a guy with an SS uniform tattooed onto his body

Russian Wagner PMC merc going a racist tirade about the true objective of the war: preservation of the white race. And they call Ukrainians nazis… Translation below; be warned it’s very graphic

Quote:

Translation:

This war, guys, just so you understand; this war is not for Ukraine. Not for gas, not for oil, not for <unaudiable>, not even for Crimea, not for any this ****. This war is for the future of the white nation, for the future of the white civilization, for the future of white Russia. If we **** this up, it's over! There will be no more of our civilization. It's the ******* end of the white civilization. Because we are all that've remained (of real white people). <unaudiable> What did others think before? We are the white nation, white Europe, white America. What the **** is going on there now? Arabs, ******* *******, and chin** crawled out of all the cracks, and all of us are faggots! ******* men in dresses, all suck *******' dicks. What is this? Where the **** is the white nation? Where is the pure white blood there? No, there's no one else left! Therefore, the whole world is against us. That is why it's happening now: we are the last ******* bastion of the white man. This war is for our blood. This war is for our genetics. This war is for our great (white) nation to continue to exist; for great white Russia to continue to live. To have a ******* white man's future! That is what we're fighting for. And only in this way. Only in this ******* way, only a white Russian man, a powerful warrior, can build the great Russian empire and preserve the future so that the white nation continues to exist on this planet. That is our ******* mission. That is why we are here. Neither Kyiv, **** it all. Russia for Russians, white Russia for Russians.

Meanwhile, half the world still seems utterly convinced that the nation led by the Jewish guy are the real Nazis. The nation with the elected Jewish leader, that accepts gay people and transgender people (and had a very gay, very campy and fun entry in Eurovision a few years back), the nation that had no problem with a black reporter wandering around and still allows full access for a transgender reporter is somehow the one that everybody thinks to be the more bigoted one. Sure.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

You didn't see what I did there.





"If they had capitulated to our demands, we wouldn't have put them in gas chambers. Ergo: their own fault."

M'kay!


1: yes, men with guns overseeing an election, representing a party interested in the outcome of the vote, gets you fairer results. How did I not know that...

2: your concept of what counts as violence makes the word lose all meaning. That aside, you might have a point if Russia's retaliation were retribution sanctions and thus at parity with the hostility directed at them. They instead chose to escalate to bloodshed.

3: "the big picture" would involve more than cherry-picking incidents, using hyperbolic rhetoric for one side and apologism for the other, and the amoral notion that not suplicating oneself to another justifies war crimes.

Deny your support for heinous acts all you like, it is naked for all to see.

ETA: Just so we're keeping score,

Seizure of property under threat of guns: "not particularly violent"

Sanctions: "attacking Russia and Crimea in a very violent way"

I don't know which "seizure of property" you are talking about.

Yes, when you cut off water, electricity and block trade, that's violent against the local population, and sanctions against Russia have been as violent as they have been absurd and unfair. I read recently in an article in French (https://www.lalibre.be/international...JYPCKXEM6G45M/) that the 2014 sanctions have led to a 10% decrease of the purchasing power of Russians, and to a 10% decrease of the birth rate for the second and third children, because Russian citizens lost confidence in the future.

Ukraine said recently:

Quote:

Ukraine peace deal: Kyiv rules out ceding land to Russia

(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61542090).

It is possible that one of the practical consequences of this will be that Ukraine will lose even more territory, and will suffer even more destruction and loss of human life.

This is why I believe that those who claim to be the friends of Ukraine, instead (perhaps) of having nice pictures taken with president Zelensky, should urge him to make the necessary concessions, which take into account the Ukrainian specificity, namely that this is a country which has a large Russian speaking population, a part of which (not all of which) want friendly ties with Russia, or to be part of Russia.

[dasmiller]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Yes, when you cut off water, electricity and block trade, that's violent against the local population, and sanctions against Russia have been as violent as they have been absurd and unfair.

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

[Delphic Oracle]

Quote:

Yes, when you cut off water, electricity and block trade, that's violent against the local population, and sanctions against Russia have been as violent as they have been absurd and unfair.

Why does Ukraine or anyone else owe these things to anyone?

Did the newly created "free" Crimea have an agreement to receive water and electricity from Ukraine?

Did it have a trade pact in place? Even if so, Ukraine can argue their measures are consistent with the "essential security" clause of GATT. Russia has also done so. WTO even supports both claims as consistent with the treaty.

Violent implies some expected right or agreement has been violated.

I can take your same "they did it to themselves" philosophy. If Crimeans voted to secede from Ukraine and not have any plan in place for provision of basic services, that was kinda stupid, right?

If I quit my job on the spot today, is my employer being "violent" if they stop paying me?

Russia annexed Crimea. Wouldn't it then be Russia's responsibility to provide services?

If someone breaks into my house and steals my television, am I now required to buy them dinner and pay their electric bill?

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

Why does Ukraine or anyone else owe these things to anyone?

Did the newly created "free" Crimea have an agreement to receive water and electricity from Ukraine?

Did it have a trade pact in place? Even if so, Ukraine can argue their measures are consistent with the "essential security" clause of GATT. Russia has also done so. WTO even supports both claims as consistent with the treaty.

Violent implies some expected right or agreement has been violated.

I can take your same "they did it to themselves" philosophy. If Crimeans voted to secede from Ukraine and not have any plan in place for provision of basic services, that was kinda stupid, right?

If I quit my job on the spot today, is my employer being "violent" if they stop paying me?

Russia annexed Crimea. Wouldn't it then be Russia's responsibility to provide services?

If someone breaks into my house and steals my television, am I now required to buy them dinner and pay their electric bill?

I agree with you that, if Crimeans receives electricity from Ukraine, they should normally pay for it. However, it seems that, in 2014 the supply of electricity was brutally cut off because of political reasons, not because of unpaid bills.

As for water, this is water flowing naturally from the Dniepr river, it doesn't cost anything to Ukraine (except for modest maintenance costs), so I suppose it should remain mostly free. Ukraine should try to keep good relations with its Crimean neighbors, instead of trying to bully them into submission, excited by its British and American pseudo-friends.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I agree with you that, if Crimeans receives electricity from Ukraine, they should normally pay for it. However, it seems that, in 2014 the supply of electricity was brutally cut off because of political reasons, not because of unpaid bills.



As for water, this is water flowing naturally from the Dniepr river, it doesn't cost anything to Ukraine (except for modest maintenance costs), so I suppose it should remain mostly free. Ukraine should try to keep good relations with its Crimean neighbors, instead of trying to bully them into submission, excited by its British and American pseudo-friends.

Crimea was taken for political reasons.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by crescent

...
Meanwhile, half the world still seems utterly convinced that the nation led by the Jewish guy are the real Nazis. The nation with the elected Jewish leader, that accepts gay people and transgender people ...

No no no, you don't get it. Ukraine is a den of brutal nazism because it dreams criminal dreams of a 'Greater Ukraine' by ... simply wanting to keep its territory as it has been for many decades!

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Michel H

... It is possible that the Russians actually had to send some troops there to protect democracy ...

See, this is where you show your true colors. A more cynical lie has rarely been told on these pages.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Michel H

...
As for water, this is water flowing naturally from the Dniepr river...

No.
It is dumb to lie so very obviously. Kinda weakens your pretensions at "argument" if everyone can clearly see that you lie so very obviously.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Not necessarily, I would read the reports and opinions of experts to make up my mind.

Ideally, there should be some kind of neutral, United Nations-led, interim administration in order for a referendum to be completely reliable, with no intimidation or interference.

However, we don't live in an ideal world, and it seems pretty well known that Russian-speaking Crimea is pro-Russian.

The various blockades inflicted to Crimea by Ukraine from 2014 probably didn't do much to boost pro-Ukrainian sentiment there:

(https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ia-2022-02-26/)

Ukraine should apologize for this horrible crime (cutting off fresh water to a whole population).

At the end of World War 2, Finland (which had sided with Nazi Germany for a while) accepted to cede land to the Soviet Union:

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vyborg...tinuation_wars)
and this led to many years of peace. This is perhaps a good model, that Ukraine should follow.

<sigh> Correction: Finland was a co-belligerent* against USSR. That is the official designation. It never adopted Nazi German ideals or governance. These terms do not just mean what you want them to mean. Accuracy is important.

*Just as Britain was a co-belligerent with France in the Crimean War against Russia (which then included the Duchy of Finland), see Battle of Bomarsund 1854. It doesn't mean Britain ever had French ideals.

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Not necessarily, I would read the reports and opinions of experts to make up my mind.

To follow that, with this:

Originally Posted by Michel H

I don't think I am the only one:

Quote:

Trump Told G7 Leaders That Crimea Is Russian Because Everyone Speaks Russian In Crimea

(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea)

Is truly extraordinary.
Michel H, in what way do you consider Trump to be an expert on the Crimea?

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I don't think I am the only one:

(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea)


??
Therre are also people, in Crimea!

Historically, Crimea has been very Russian, so whilst the Russian occupation of it in 2014 was wrong and the west should have done more to protest and sanction Russia against it, I believe having conceded Crimea to Russia, then it is best to let that sleeping dog lie. However, the aggressors need to be forced back from Donbass and Moldova protected as of current affairs today, IMV.

[Childlike Empress]

Originally Posted by Vixen

"Here in Eurasia" we have some 55,000,000 sq km and 5,360,351,985 people (as of 16 October 2019), 70% of the human population. Perhaps the ideology of how things should be in Eurasia belongs to philosophy and future economics rather than the here and now of war in Ukraine by a totally unwarranted aggressor, Russia.

Dude, I was talking to a Canadian.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

<sigh> Correction: Finland was a co-belligerent* against USSR.

Nice little fig leaf.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Historically, Crimea has been very Russian, so whilst the Russian occupation of it in 2014 was wrong and the west should have done more to protest and sanction Russia against it, I believe having conceded Crimea to Russia, then it is best to let that sleeping dog lie. However, the aggressors need to be forced back from Donbass and Moldova protected as of current affairs today, IMV.

'Let the sleeping doe lie'?

But there is no 'sleeping dog' it is very much awake and savaging Ukraine. It was never asleep.

This won't be over until the Russians are back to their pre 2014 border. What do you think is the purpose of the sanctions imposed after they invaded?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

I don't think Michel H is trolling, I get the impression he is some kind of pacificist, which of course he is entitled to be.

No, he's not a pacifist, he is all for violence and war as long as it favours Russia, why else would he be encouraging their aggression?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

*Just as Britain was a co-belligerent with France in the Crimean War against Russia (which then included the Duchy of Finland), see Battle of Bomarsund 1854. It doesn't mean Britain ever had French ideals.

As far as the Crimean War was concerned and the reasons for it, Britain very much did have the same ideals as the French.

[Vixen]

Update: Russian diplomat resigns. Beginning of the end for Putin...?

Quote:

BREAKING: ���� Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.

Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”

UN Watch is now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations—and worldwide—to follow his moral example and resign.

https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/stat...k1DVkUgQcyMWyg

Sure to be highly embarrassing for Putin, with the FSB falling apart and strategy put into the hands of GRU instead.

[Captain_Swoop]

He will have to keep away from upstairs windows.

[The Don]

In a bizarre case of accusing your enemies of what you yourself are doing.....

Quote:

Lukashenko used the briefing to raise concerns over what he described as the West's attempts to "dismember" Ukraine, accusing Poland of trying to seize the nation's western region.

He also appeared to suggest Kyiv would eventually need to ask for help - from Belarus and Russia - to prevent this seizure happening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Sure Alexander, the threat to Ukraine's territorial integrity comes from Poland.

[SpitfireIX]

I wish there were a video of Zelenskyy's reaction when he saw this. He probably laughed himself onto the floor.

[jimbob]

Meanwhile, it looks like Russia is hurting from the sanctions

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...kCKcVlOB7jEPwA

Quote:

April exports to Russia, y-o-y

����-26%
����-67%
����-77%
����-71%

Compared to December 2021 exports down more than 50% in China, more than 70% in the three other countries.

[The Don]

New Zealand are going to go to the UK to train Ukrainians in the use of field artillery:

Quote:

New Zealand will send a small number of troops from its defence force to the UK to train Ukrainian soldiers in using field artillery guns, the government announced on Monday.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said 30 personnel will be deployed to the UK until the end of July to train Ukrainian forces in the use of L119 105mm howitzer guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Oh noes, those poor Ukrainians will end up talking funny