The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by dudalb

God, they are really clueless when it comes to basic intelligence security.

Some US troops have screwed up just as bad in recent years. Some special opps types gave away the location of their bases thanks to workout data on Strava where there was a map of their run routes.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Doubt

Some US troops have screwed up just as bad in recent years. Some special opps types gave away the location of their bases thanks to workout data on Strava where there was a map of their run routes.

Is that 'just as bad' though? They aren't on operations and feeding intel on tactical situations to an enemy?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Doubt

Some US troops have screwed up just as bad in recent years. Some special opps types gave away the location of their bases thanks to workout data on Strava where there was a map of their run routes.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Is that 'just as bad' though? They aren't on operations and feeding intel on tactical situations to an enemy?

That was an understandable mistake at the intersection of new tech and information promiscuity. The mistake was discovered and corrected. This talking about how insecure open phone lines are, on an open phone line, is next-level stupid.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Is that 'just as bad' though? They aren't on operations and feeding intel on tactical situations to an enemy?

https://www.wired.com/story/strava-h...ckers-privacy/

The Strava incident gave away the location of where their bases were. So yes, it is just as bad.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Doubt

https://www.wired.com/story/strava-h...ckers-privacy/

The Strava incident gave away the location of where their bases were. So yes, it is just as bad.

I'm pretty sure the Afghanis already knew where their bases were.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I'm pretty sure the Afghanis already knew where their bases were.

The Russians/Syrians learned what types of units and personal were at specific locations in Syria. You can even infer the relative size of the units based on the intensity of the heat map. This was a compromise in security.

Given that these were elite units and not some half trained conscript makes it that much worse. It isn't like they had never had opsec briefings before.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by Aridas

I'm not seeing special reason to doubt the translation quality too much, honestly, even if some of the specific claims in it are eyeroll worthy. Still, it may be worth pointing out that the twitter observation and CE's added context claims, especially the highlighted, are not actually mutually exclusive. Using that tactic doesn't make them happy and they'd prefer not to use it? Sure, I'm willing to grant that small benefit of the doubt! Obviously, they'd prefer to be in a position where they would feel that there's no value in doing so. That doesn't mean that they'll hesitate to employ that tactic if they think that they could benefit from it, though. Of course, it's also likely true that Putin never counted on it - Putin was expecting Ukraine to submit in very short order, so things like this weren't even being considered. Then, of course, by the time that those expectations were shattered, trying to win the unexpected actual war and engage in damage control was of much greater concern.

Yes, I don't see a good reason to think that they needed to play silly buggers with the translation. That's not how you get propaganda out. You just say the lies and let them be translated honestly.

[The Don]

Another grim summary from ISW yesterday if you support Ukraine:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-21

The Russians are making significant advances in the east, have repelled Ukrainian counter attacks near Kharkiv and in the south and reportedly have stopped an attempt to attack Snake Island.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Don

Another grim summary from ISW yesterday if you support Ukraine:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-21

The Russians are making significant advances in the east, have repelled Ukrainian counter attacks near Kharkiv and in the south and reportedly have stopped an attempt to attack Snake Island.

Damn it, could you try to slow down that headless-chicken running and ultra-pessimistic screaming to sky based on inaccurate info and Russian propaganda? Your summaries don't longer resemble anything in real world! And last bit is taken right out of Russian propaganda! Could you at least check out some other sources of news before resuming your headless runs and screams?

Significant = a kilometer after many days. Not exactly repelled. Russians are still were UA left them. As for Snake island, Russian "stop attack" was so successful, that they have some more burning stuff (https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1539304307903832064).

ETA: And you skipped Kherson oblast... Why? Because it doesn't fit your "UA is doomed" narrative?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Damn it, could you try to slow down that headless-chicken running and ultra-pessimistic screaming to sky based on inaccurate info and Russian propaganda? Your summaries don't longer resemble anything in real world! And last bit is taken right out of Russian propaganda! Could you at least check out some other sources of news before resuming your headless runs and screams?

Significant = a kilometer after many days. Not exactly repelled. Russians are still were UA left them. As for Snake island, Russian "stop attack" was so successful, that they have some more burning stuff (https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1539304307903832064).

ETA: And you skipped Kherson oblast... Why? Because it doesn't fit your "UA is doomed" narrative?

I mentioned "the South" where ISW say:

Quote:

Russian forces likely recaptured the eastern bank of the Inhulets River from the Ukrainian bridgehead situated near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces fired on Ukrainian positions on the western bank of the Inhulets River, likely indicating that Ukrainian forces lost access to the bridgehead on the eastern riverbank, which they had occupied since May 28.

If you consider ISW to be Russian propaganda then I think you are wrong, I think that they take an impartial view based on a variety of sources - including Russian propaganda.

Here's their full summary from yesterday:

Quote:

• The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may have fired the commander of the Southern Military District and appointed a new overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, indicating ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin’s conduct of the war.
• Russian forces conducted several successful advances in settlements southeast of Severodonetsk on June 21 and may be able to threaten Lysychansk in the coming days while avoiding a difficult opposed crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River.
• Russian forces continued to launch assaults on settlements along the T1302 Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).
• Russian operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis are increasingly stalled as Russian forces prioritize operations around Severodonetsk.
• Russian forces likely recaptured the eastern bank of the Inhulets River from the Ukrainian bridgehead situated near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian positions on Snake Island in the Black Sea, likely to destroy Russian fortifications and equipment on the island, but ISW cannot confirm competing Ukrainian and Russian claims of the results of the attack.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing to face challenges recruiting local collaborators and are likely relying on Russian government personnel to consolidate their societal control of occupied Ukrainian territories.

If you think my brief summary misrepresents those bullet points then please let me know how.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Doubt

https://www.wired.com/story/strava-h...ckers-privacy/

The Strava incident gave away the location of where their bases were. So yes, it is just as bad.

Why is that as bad as though?
Were they giving away operation al information while in combat?
It's embarrassing but hardly serious.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Don

I mentioned "the South" where ISW say:

One small part of AoO. Looking at map would tell you, you are again doom-screamingly exaggerating stuff:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...532288/photo/2

Quote:

If you consider ISW to be Russian propaganda then I think you are wrong, I think that they take an impartial view based on a variety of sources - including Russian propaganda.

Your bad reading comprehension is not my problem. Less running, more reading. (Goes for my post and for source material)

Quote:

Here's their full summary from yesterday:



If you think my brief summary misrepresents those bullet points then please let me know how.

Yes, you did, all of those points you happened to mention. You exaggerated them beyond Russian fantasies. You skipped few like Izium axis. And one point ISW got 100% wrong. (No idea why, by the update there is tons of evidence already)

And you completely misread that point about "repelling".

Quote:

have repelled Ukrainian counter attacks near Kharkiv

Ukrainians repelled Russian attack! Not vice-versa: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...532288/photo/4

===

Summary: You skipped some points, exaggerated few, completely misread one and ISW got one wrong and you still managed to go completely 100% pro-Russian on it.

[Klimax]

Anyway, given how many large ammo warehouses were destroyed recently, we'll see some fun in few days.

[Captain_Swoop]

In its daily briefing, UK intelligence said the casualties suffered by Donetsk's proxy militia amounted to 55% of its original force.

This week the proxy administration said it was offering one-year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61891462

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

In its daily briefing, UK intelligence said the casualties suffered by Donetsk's proxy militia amounted to 55% of its original force.

Those are some awfully high casualty rates - long may it continue.

That also depends on what "55% of its original force" means. If it's 55% of the force on the day of the start of the war then that's one thing, if it's 55% of all those who have taken the field then that's something else.

If it's the former then it depends on how large their original force was, and how effectively they've been able to mobilise to replace it. If the original force was 1,000 and as a result they've had 550 casualties then if they've not been able to replace them, that would badly affect their effectiveness. OTOH if 10,000 reservists and new recruits have joined up then perhaps not.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

This week the proxy administration said it was offering one-year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61891462

That would strongly indicate that they are finding it very difficult to recruit any more (which is anecdotally supported by some Russian military bloggers who have mentioned that the separatists were mobilising musicians a few weeks ago). Great !

As you and others have pointed out upthread(s), Russia have also been very keen to use Wagner Group mercenaries both here, and in previous conflicts like Syria. I hope this means that the separatists are recruiting third or fourth rate mercenaries who will be consequentially largely ineffective.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

In its daily briefing, UK intelligence said the casualties suffered by Donetsk's proxy militia amounted to 55% of its original force.

This week the proxy administration said it was offering one-year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61891462

So of course anyone who enlists will be immediately arrested and sentenced to death for being a mercenary.

[ponderingturtle]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

So of course anyone who enlists will be immediately arrested and sentenced to death for being a mercenary.

Only in a rational world would they be so self consistent.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

So of course anyone who enlists will be immediately arrested and sentenced to death for being a mercenary. : rolleyes :

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle

Only in a rational world would they be so self consistent.

I'm sorry, but this is a stupid argument. It's entirely rational and consistent to criminalize mercenaries fighting against you, and to legalize mercenaries fighting for you.

Only an irrational idiot would try what you're suggesting.

[Captain_Swoop]

I can't imagine they will have a lot of takers.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

I can't imagine they will have a lot of takers.

Particularly in view of the fact the service would be more dangerous, and the pay likely worse, than if they joined the Wagner Group instead.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by The Don

Those are some awfully high casualty rates - long may it continue.

That also depends on what "55% of its original force" means. If it's 55% of the force on the day of the start of the war then that's one thing, if it's 55% of all those who have taken the field then that's something else.

I don't think it means the latter because they wouldn't use the phrase "original force", they'd just say "55% casualties". It could still mean one of two things though:

a) 55% of the men who started the war are now dead or were wounded

b) The total number of dead or wounded is the same as 55% of the size of the army that started the war.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I don't think it means the latter because they wouldn't use the phrase "original force", they'd just say "55% casualties". It could still mean one of two things though:

a) 55% of the men who started the war are now dead or were wounded

b) The total number of dead or wounded is the same as 55% of the size of the army that started the war.

Reading the article and the numbers involved - talking about general numbers of 2,128 killed and 8,897 wounded - I reckon it's the latter.

If they've managed to mobilise tens of thousands of men to replace them then that may not have a significant impact on their fighting effectiveness.

[SpitfireIX]

The problem is a lot of the ones who were trained, experienced, and motivated are now dead or disabled, and their replacements are none of those things.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by The Don

Reading the article and the numbers involved - talking about general numbers of 2,128 killed and 8,897 wounded - I reckon it's the latter.

If they've managed to mobilise tens of thousands of men to replace them then that may not have a significant impact on their fighting effectiveness.

There aren't 'tens of thousands' of men mobilised.
If they had 'tens of thousands' they wouldn't be pleading for mercenaries to join up to add to the 55% casualties.

Who would either volunteer or sign up as a mercenary for 55% casualties in a war for Putin?

[theprestige]

And "mobilizing tens of thousands of men" doesn't mean "dropping tens of thousands of troops on the battlefield, in the sectors where they can make a difference".

I highly doubt that the separatist provinces have the resources and infrastructure to actually field tens of thousands of new troops in just a month or two.

[Galaxie]

There have been several videos from the separatists' perspective where soldiers are armed with Mosin bolt-action rifles, old surplus steel helmets, and civilian radios.

[sackett]

This fight is happening on the ground. However inept the Putinists are or continue to be, the war will be decided by preponderance of power. Russia will always have an abundance of means: men, machines, explosives, fuel, food. The only way Ukraine can win is through superior intel and superior munitions. Sophistication can defeat dully persistent aggression.

The west can provide intelligence, weapons, organization, and training. Most significantly, the west currently has the will to do so. Havering and yeahbutting about details only erodes western enthusiasm for this crucial endeavor.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Galaxie

There have been several videos from the separatists' perspective where soldiers are armed with Mosin bolt-action rifles, old surplus steel helmets, and civilian radios.

Saw a couple of PPSH 41 SMGs also. World War 2 surplus time.

[sackett]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Saw a couple of PPSH 41 SMGs also. World War 2 surplus time.

Sounds more like recreators. Did Vlad think they were cute and sweep them into his arms?

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why is that as bad as though?
Were they giving away operation al information while in combat?
It's embarrassing but hardly serious.

A Strava heat map can give you frequently visited locations. The routes can show you where people go. In the case of Syria, the bases are isolated enough that the locations were likely already identified. But the types and sizes of units can be found based on where the most traveled routes are within the bases. Coordinated with other information it could be used as a puzzle piece to ID individuals.

The information on most traveled locations is exactly what would be needed for selecting where on a base to drop shells or bombs. It is actionable intelligence.

[ZiprHead]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Ukraine sinks Russian Black Sea tug

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/...hief-says-live

Why is the writing on that ship pictured in English?

[Reformed Offlian]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

In its daily briefing, UK intelligence said the casualties suffered by Donetsk's proxy militia amounted to 55% of its original force.

This week the proxy administration said it was offering one-year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61891462

Didn't the Russians proper already try to hire those? I can't imagine that there's a huge pool of suitable mercenaries lined up at this point.

[TJM]

Ever wonder what it's like to be on the receiving end of an artillery barrage?

Russian boys take one so you don't have to.

NSFW: Loud explosions and what I've been told are a lot of expletives, which are probably best experienced through one's headphones.

https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1/...ZXTnsvbRIdd9rw

[Lord Emsworth]

Originally Posted by TJM

Ever wonder what it's like to be on the receiving end of an artillery barrage?

Russian boys take one so you don't have to.

NSFW: Loud explosions and what I've been told are a lot of expletives, which are probably best experienced through one's headphones.

https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1/...ZXTnsvbRIdd9rw

That's footage of that ammo depot that was hit by a Tochka-U missile and where the stored munitions went off and off and off and off for quite some time.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by TJM

Ever wonder what it's like to be on the receiving end of an artillery barrage?

Russian boys take one so you don't have to.

NSFW: Loud explosions and what I've been told are a lot of expletives, which are probably best experienced through one's headphones.

https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1/...ZXTnsvbRIdd9rw

That Twitter account is very iffy - seems to be a Walter Mitty character in Ontario.

A thread detailing some of his claims for starters

https://twitter.com/con_punk/status/1537040124378243072

[TJM]

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth

That's footage of that ammo depot that was hit by a Tochka-U missile and where the stored munitions went off and off and off and off for quite some time.

So Russian ammo cooking off from a Ukrainian missile strike instead of a sustained artillery barrage. Happily, I stand corrected.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by ZiprHead

Why is the writing on that ship pictured in English?

According to Wikipedia, it's a rescue tug; the markings probably follow some international standard.

[The Don]

I know that I annoy you all with my gloomy assessment of the war in Ukraine but I don't think that it's out of step with the media consensus. For example from the BBC today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61906509

Quote:

In its daily update, the UK's ministry of defence said that Russian forces have advanced over 5km (3 miles) towards the southern perimeter of Lysychansk this week.

"Some Ukrainian units have withdrawn, probably to avoid being encircled. Russia's improved performance in this sector is likely a result of recent unit reinforcement and heavy concentration of fire," UK officials said.

They're slowly grinding Donbas into rubble and taking ground metre by metre.

Meanwhile, it looks like they're going to launch another attack on Kharkiv.

Quote:

Elsewhere, Russia resumed its shelling of Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv on Wednesday morning.

Many civilians had started to return to the city after Russian forces were pushed back across the border, but fears have grown that Moscow could be planning a fresh assault in the region.

The traffic at the moment seems to be all one-way. I think that NATO needs to re-evaluate the support it is giving Ukraine and vastly increase it.

[Oystein]

The Don, I appreciate your realistic accounting of the current situation, which is a stalemate on UA ground, with UA on defense, and UA getting destroyed bit by bit. Every day like this is a bad, losing day for Ukraine, even if Russia is not winning.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Don

Meanwhile, it looks like they're going to launch another attack on Kharkiv.

Just to be clear - Russia's apparently been shelling/rocketing Kharkiv on most of the days that they've been in range, by the sound of it, with occasional short breaks, at best (likely as their artillery was under more immediate threat). Using worries about a fresh assault is also a little odd to justify this claim. Russia never actually stopped trying to conquer the area, after all. They've been driven back significantly, including losing most of the ground within artillery range of Kharkiv, but haven't lost quite enough yet to keep them out of range. Fighting's been ongoing, of course.