How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Warp12]

I went to the movies the other day and nobody was wearing a mask....including me.

Flip Side: I saw a woman walking down an empty sidewalk outside, alone, in 90 degree heat, wearing a mask. There was nobody within 100 yards of her, minimum.

I think for some people it will never end. Some enjoy the comfort of social distancing and masking up.

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by Warp12

I went to the movies the other day and nobody was wearing a mask....including me.

Flip Side: I saw a woman walking down an empty sidewalk outside, alone, in 90 degree heat, wearing a mask. There was nobody within 100 yards of her, minimum.

I think for some people it will never end. Some enjoy the comfort of social distancing and masking up.

I will continue wearing a mask whenever I go into a bank or liquor store. Just because I can.

[TragicMonkey]

I just heard from some friends who live in Virginia. All three of them got covid last week. They'd had both shots originally but no boosters, and none of them have been wearing masks for months. They said nobody in their area has been wearing masks lately.

This is why it continues.

My own personal guidelines include "never be the first to adopt a new technology" and "never be the last to abandon a safety measure".

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by Warp12

I went to the movies the other day and nobody was wearing a mask....including me.

Flip Side: I saw a woman walking down an empty sidewalk outside, alone, in 90 degree heat, wearing a mask. There was nobody within 100 yards of her, minimum.

I think for some people it will never end. Some enjoy the comfort of social distancing and masking up.

Sometimes it's just easier to leave the mask on than to take it off and put it back on again.

I'd be surprised if many people, or indeed anyone, likes either social distancing or masking up. It's only a "comfort" if you actually have a clear grasp of the risks of not doing it. Which a lot of people lack, obviously.

(I took my mask off to watch a film because the CO2 concentration in the cinema was about 500 ppm, the only person anywhere near me was my friend who is also very careful not to expose herself to infection, and actually there was only one other couple in the place and they were way at the back in a corner - I didn't look any closer at what they were doing.)

[Chanakya]

I continue masking, and mentally middle-finger anyone who throws me funny looks.

Out in public and with strangers and merely-acquaintances it does not really matter; but it does get kind of awkward when people come visiting, and those people do not themselves mask up. It's awkward to ask them to mask up when they're not of themselves doing it; and even if you choose to let that slide, even then it's awkward to keep wearing your mask when those others aren't doing that.

I generally do my own thing, provided I'm convinced it's the right thing to do, and don't much worry about how others might perceive it; but in social occasions, and with people that are close to you, and when the whole point is basically getting together to relax and all, when people are at different wavelenghts on this, then that creates ...a certain, I don't know, a certain something that's not very conducive to relaxed-time-together thing.

Ah well. Hopefully in a few months this thing will truly be behind us, but in the meantime I'm damned if I'm going to breathe in someone's foul germs just to maintain utterly spurious social niceties.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Chanakya

Hopefully in a few months this thing will truly be behind us, but in the meantime I'm damned if I'm going to breathe in someone's foul germs just to maintain utterly spurious social niceties.

Do you know something the rest of us don't?!
In a few months, it will be first autumn and the winter in the northern hemisphere, and in most of Europe the numbers are rising now when they were expected to fall because it's summer. Compare the current USA numbers to the numbers in late June of 2020 and 2021.
I don't see any signs that make me assume that there is reason to expect it to be behind us soon. Unless the policies change, i.e. masking up and TTI, I don't think it will happen.
The virus is working tirelessly on creating new and improved variants, and our governments think that we should let get on with it.

[mgidm86]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Sometimes it's just easier to leave the mask on than to take it off and put it back on again.

I'd be surprised if many people, or indeed anyone, likes either social distancing or masking up. It's only a "comfort" if you actually have a clear grasp of the risks of not doing it. Which a lot of people lack, obviously.

(I took my mask off to watch a film because the CO2 concentration in the cinema was about 500 ppm, the only person anywhere near me was my friend who is also very careful not to expose herself to infection, and actually there was only one other couple in the place and they were way at the back in a corner - I didn't look any closer at what they were doing.)

Normal CO2 levels in my area are about 420 ppm. 500 is perfectly safe.

How did you know the CO2 level in the theater? Why would it be high if there were only 3 people in it?

Finally, when you exhale, the CO2 isn't trapped in the mask. What is the volume of air your lungs can hold vs the amount of CO2 a mask could trap in the tiny area between it and your face? Gigantic.

It makes no sense.

Also, the mask isn't for you or your friend's own protection. I still wear mine in some situations but since most people are not I wonder why I bother. I mainly avoid crowds and I shop for groceries online now and pick up at the curb.

[Rolfe]

I knew the CO2 concentration because I had a CO2 meter in my handbag. I was expecting it to be low, and I actually behaved as if it was that low on previous occasions before I had the CO2 meter. It was just nice to confirm it.

Of course CO2 concentrations aren't affected by whether or not anyone is wearing a mask. That doesn't change the metrics on how to behave though. You're just generally safer at any particular CO2 level if the other people are masked compared to if they aren't. CO2 concentration is used as a proxy measurement for the likelihood that you are breathing air that someone else has recently breathed out, that's all. Yes that air is less likely to have virus in it if the other person is masked.

Finally, my mask - an FFP3 for which I had to pass a face-fit test at work - most certainly is for my protection. (My friend was wearing an FFP2, which isn't quite so good but still pretty protective.) I have got to the point that I am looking out for myself. I have had it with urging masks and ventilation on other people. You can all get it twice a month for all I care. (No that isn't really true, I really wish you'd all stop incubating new variants of concern, but since nobody is listening to Cassandra, she's plotting how to survive the Greek attack all by herself.)

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by dann

Do you know something the rest of us don't?!
In a few months, it will be first autumn and the winter in the northern hemisphere, and in most of Europe the numbers are rising now when they were expected to fall because it's summer. Compare the current USA numbers to the numbers in late June of 2020 and 2021.
I don't see any signs that make me assume that there is reason to expect it to be behind us soon. Unless the policies change, i.e. masking up and TTI, I don't think it will happen.
The virus is working tirelessly on creating new and improved variants, and our governments think that we should let get on with it.

Ha ha, no, absolutely not! To be frank, I've not been following the latest developments on the Covid front with anywhere close to the attention I would lavish on it in earlier times. It's my impression that overall it's all kind of petering out, with the relatively milquetoast Omicron crowding out other variants. I was generally thinking --- hoping! --- that maybe by year-end things might improve enough that we can take Omicron in our stride, like we do the flu, especially with enough vaccination. But in any case, I'm not letting down my guard, paranoid thought that looks and sounds to some people. Better paranoid for a few months more, than sorry, is my view.

So well, that was just a general expression of hope, and of general uninformed hope at that.

Yes, one does hope that in the meantime Omicron isn't upstaged by a more malevolent cousin, or that it does not itself turn out more deadly than it has started to seem.

If only people weren't so impatient, like little children, to snatch off their masks in indulge in the "freedom" to breathe in one another's germs. But of course, if we're going for "if only"s, then there's a whole stack of them. Things are what they are, unfortunately.

[dann]

I can assure you that there is nothing milquetoast about Omicron. The death toll has more than doubled in Denmark. It has quadrupled in Finland during the Omicron wave, in Iceland, too, and I expect it to take off again in a couple of weeks when the death toll catches up with the recent rise in new Omicron BA.5 infections: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people

When I watch The Late Show, Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel Live, etc., I can see that people in the audience still masking up. I get the same impression when I watch footage from the NY subway. In Copenhagen, it is probably fewer than 1 in 50 right now.

As for predictions:

Quote:

Drosten, German virologist:
In the interview, Drosten apologized for his statement this spring about the pandemic would be ending by the end of this year. "I no longer think that by the end of this year we will think that the pandemic is over."
https://twitter.com/dannXsim/status/1540579230869766144

And as for unprofessional predictions a few months ago ...

[dann]

How do we know a pandemic's over?

When the pandemic minimizers stop pretending that it's over. I think that will be a sure sign that it actually is.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by dann

How do we know a pandemic's over?

When the pandemic minimizers stop pretending that it's over. I think that will be a sure sign that it actually is.

What tests my patience to the limit, is when some bright spark, themselves unmasked obviously, that glories in knowing more about the wider world than is contained within the dark comorting confines of their backside orifices, invariably lets loose the very original quip comparing my resolute mask-wearing with what the Japanese tend to do. Like, "It's great that you keep masking on, apparently that's what the Japs do all time, very civilized, keeps all kinds of germs out, that's how they apparently live such long lives, those Japs."

[dann]

One of the Swedish pundits is Agnes Wold, an aging bacteriologist, who is conspicuously lacking in any new knowledge since the finished her education back in the '70s or '80s. Very early on, she declared that the use of face masks in Asian countries was a cultural tradition that had nothing whatsoever to do with the prevention of virus transmission.
At this point, she is telling people in their 60s that as soon as they get vaccinated there is no need to mask up anymore.

This was when cases in Sweden hadn't quite been discovered yet:
Munskydd är en ritual som man använder i asiatiska länder för att visa någon sorts hövlighet mot andra. (Twitter, March 9, 2020)
Face masks are a ritual used in Asian countries to demonstrate some kind of courteousness to others.

Man, those primitive Asians just don't know any better. And to this day, they're still doing it, masking up, as if it had anything at all to do with the low number of cases in comparison to Sweden. When will they ever learn?!

[xjx388]

Well, it certainly isn't over yet! And probably won't be for the foreseeable future.

I, myself, am just getting over an infection I got three weeks ago. 2nd time I've gotten it (1st was in Jan 2021) and it was actually worse this time. Lots of severe fatigue and brain fog and I had fever and cough for the first week. I am vaccinated and had one booster about 5 months ago. I knew I should have gotten the second booster!

My wife has seen a lot of cases in her practice as well. A lot of my friends have gotten it around the same time frame. I think we can call it a surge here in South Texas. I've also read about how cruise ships are debarking a lot of sick people and quarantining people on-board.

But it's like the general public doesn't care anymore. There is definitely a sense of "can we stop hearing about this now?" Heads in the sand . . .

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by xjx388

Well, it certainly isn't over yet! And probably won't be for the foreseeable future.

I, myself, am just getting over an infection I got three weeks ago. 2nd time I've gotten it (1st was in Jan 2021) and it was actually worse this time. Lots of severe fatigue and brain fog and I had fever and cough for the first week. I am vaccinated and had one booster about 5 months ago. I knew I should have gotten the second booster!

My wife has seen a lot of cases in her practice as well. A lot of my friends have gotten it around the same time frame. I think we can call it a surge here in South Texas. I've also read about how cruise ships are debarking a lot of sick people and quarantining people on-board.

But it's like the general public doesn't care anymore. There is definitely a sense of "can we stop hearing about this now?" Heads in the sand . . .

Hope you recover fully soon!

Agreed, the head in the sand thing. I just don't get it, how people can do this. How they can still do this, after two years of this virus rampaging around. Surely taking some elementary precautions --- that one has had enough time to get used to by now --- is not that big a deal, given the alternative might be to fall ill, perhaps seriously ill? It's actually suicidal, exactly like speeding on a bike without a helmet, or driving without belting up.

The other day some family friends came visiting at my parents' place from out of town. I happened to be there as well. These guys had been badly hit by the pandemic, and actually lost a family member --- the father to the kid, the son of the elderly parents, the husband of the still-kind-of-young wife/widow --- to Covid. And none of them were ******* masked on! And my parents, although masked to begin with, soon started feeling awkward, sitting masked up like that, and discreetly took theirs off after a while. And I ...somehow refrained from making a scene. I should have, I guess, better an awkward scene than my parents getting ill; but what the hell, I did not, and stood sitting there, the only masked one in a room full of people. Thankfully they left soon after, else I don't know how much longer I could have taken it before actually making a royal scene over it all.

It's utterly crazy, how little regard people have for their own health and safety. And others' as well.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Very, I think. The current BA2 wave will subside as quickly as it began and the fat lady will be signing.

that didn't age well.

Quote:

I can see the pandemic being over for all practical purposes by the end of April, and officially by WHO statement some time in June. China's the only place that might continue to have issues, which is ironically appropriate.

Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 29 June 2022

Quote:

Globally, the number of weekly COVID-19 cases has increased for the third consecutive week, after a declining trend was observed since the last peak in March 2022. During the week of 20 to 26 June 2022, over 4.1 million cases were reported, an 18% increase as compared to the previous week...

At the regional level, the number of new weekly cases increased in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (+47%), the European Region (+33%), the South-East Asia Region (+32%)...

Geographic spread and prevalence of VOCs

the Omicron VOC remains the dominant variant circulating globally, accounting for 94% of sequences reported in the past 30 days. Among Omicron sequences, as of epidemiological week 24 (13 to 19 June 2022) BA.2 represents 25%, while BA.2.12.1 represents 11%, BA.4 represents 12%, and BA.5 represents 43%....

These trends should be interpreted with caution as several countries have been progressively changing COVID-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected.

July 1st and New Zealand is still on Orange alert. I wonder why...

[dann]

Originally Posted by xjx388

Well, it certainly isn't over yet! And probably won't be for the foreseeable future.

I, myself, am just getting over an infection I got three weeks ago. 2nd time I've gotten it (1st was in Jan 2021) and it was actually worse this time. Lots of severe fatigue and brain fog and I had fever and cough for the first week. I am vaccinated and had one booster about 5 months ago. I knew I should have gotten the second booster!

My wife has seen a lot of cases in her practice as well. A lot of my friends have gotten it around the same time frame. I think we can call it a surge here in South Texas. I've also read about how cruise ships are debarking a lot of sick people and quarantining people on-board.

But it's like the general public doesn't care anymore. There is definitely a sense of "can we stop hearing about this now?" Heads in the sand . . .

It has become obvious that the people who told us to 'learn to live with the virus' were full of it. Omicron isn't mild:
Where's the herd immunity? Our research shows why Covid is still wreaking havoc. (The Guardian, July 1, 2022)

Good convalescence!

[dann]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

that didn't age well..

Maybe it was meant to say that the fat lady is sighing! She probably can't sing anymore anyway.

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people But the problem with the number of daily new cases is that some countries drastically reduce testing. Sweden, for instance, is close to having achieved ZeroCovid in this way. The death toll is usually much more reliable:
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths

There was a time when Jacinda Ardern called the relatives of people who had succumbed to Covid-19.

But we knew that 'learning to live with the virus' was never about people. It was always about the economy: New Zealand Economy Surprisingly Contracts as Covid Spread (Bloomberg)

Wait! That's not how it was supposed to work, was it?!
(The only thing that's surprising is that anybody's surprised.)

[Warp12]

Originally Posted by Warp12

I think for some people it will never end.

The above is pretty clear, I'd say.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Warp12

Some enjoy the comfort of social distancing and masking up.

You mean people like this?

Originally Posted by crackers

I am immunocompromised, so I am quite happy to continue wearing a mask until I am the only person I see wearing one.

Originally Posted by 905

I'm also immunocompromised and don't see dropping my N95 anytime soon, especially as my government (UK) is throwing us under the bus.

Letting a virus that's lethal for them run rampant does actually mean that it will never end. They will have to mask up for the rest of their immunocompromised lives while being mocked by Covid minimizers, or they may die much too soon because those Covid deniers won't mask up.

But we should be forgiving since some of those Covid deniers may not even remember why they feel the way they do.
From a recent Danish study:

Quote:

Out of 919,731 individuals that were tested for COVID-19 within the study, researchers found that the 43,375 people who tested positive had a 3.5 times increased risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease, 2.6 times with Parkinson’s disease, 2.7 times with ischaemic stroke, and 4.8 times with intracerebral hemorrhage (bleeding in the brain).
COVID Associated With Neurodegenerative Disorders (Science-Based Medicine, June 29, 2022)

Maybe this is the reason why they don't seem to remember the foolishly optimistic predictions they made only three months ago ...

Originally Posted by Warp12

Some enjoy the comfort of social distancing and masking up.

Yeah, right, that must be the reason!
You guys should have a meeting and try to agree on some kind of consensus on this issue: Are people masking up and self-quarantining for some obscure psychological reason, i.e because they have an irrational fear of a virus that isn't even there or, if it is, is just as mild as the common cold, or is it because they enjoy self-quarantining and masking up, kind of like furries dressing up in animal costumes?
Claiming both makes your claims look ridiculous.

[Warp12]

Originally Posted by dann

You mean people like this?




Letting a virus that's lethal for them run rampant does actually mean that it will never end. They will have to mask up for the rest of their immunocompromised lives while being mocked by Covid minimizers, or they may die much too soon because those Covid deniers won't mask up.

But we should be forgiving since some of those Covid deniers may not even remember why they feel the way they do.
From a recent Danish study:

Maybe this is the reason why they don't seem to remember the foolishly optimistic predictions they made only three months ago ...



Yeah, right, that must be the reason!
You guys should have a meeting and try to agree on some kind of consensus on this issue: Are people masking up and self-quarantining for some obscure psychological reason, i.e because they have an irrational fear of a virus that isn't even there or, if it is, is just as mild as the common cold, or is it because they enjoy self-quarantining and masking up, kind of like furries dressing up in animal costumes?
Claiming both makes your claims look ridiculous.

As stated: For some people the pandemic will never end.

Immunocompromised people are advised take extra precautions...because I'm not looking out for them, nor changing my way of life for years to accommodate their needs. Neither are most others too concerned with these statistical outliers. Of course, if you are one of these people, it sucks that reality is not going to conform to what would be ideal for your situation.

As for the other aspect of your post, yes, even people on this forum have talked about enjoying masking and social distancing. It is a little strange, but it is what it is.

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Warp12

As stated: For some people the pandemic will never end.

Immunocompromised people are advised take extra precautions...because I'm not looking out for them, nor changing my way of life for years to accommodate their needs. Neither are most others too concerned with these statistical outliers. Of course, if you are one of these people, it sucks that reality is not going to conform to what would be ideal for your situation.

As for the other aspect of your post, yes, even people on this forum have talked about enjoying masking and social distancing. It is a little strange, but it is what it is.

Immunocompromised people have always been advised to take extra precautions from the likes of colds, flu etc.

[dann]

So we now have two Covid-minimizing posts to study:

Warp12:
Instead of using every opportunity to spread lies, it would be appreciated if he stopped or at least came up with documentation. I doubt that crackers and 905 appreciate his euphemism for their very serious condition as "these statistical outliers."
"As for the other aspect of your post, yes, even people on this forum have talked about enjoying masking and social distancing."

No, that's not another aspect of my post. I said nothing about about "enjoying masking and social distancing." Neither did crackers and 905. Saying that you are, for instance, 'happy to wear a helmet' because you know that it prevents you from getting killed, doesn't mean that you enjoy wearing it, obviously. And social distancing isn't mentioned at all, but who cares when we are making up stuff anyway, right?

Originally Posted by crackers

I am immunocompromised, so I am quite happy to continue wearing a mask until I am the only person I see wearing one.

Originally Posted by 905

I'm also immunocompromised and don't see dropping my N95 anytime soon, especially as my government (UK) is throwing us under the bus.

That Warp12 himself belongs to one of the risk groups if infected with the virus, a much more common risk group than being immunocompromised, is only mentioned for reason of completeness.

Lplus:
"Immunocompromised people have always been advised to take extra precautions from the likes of colds, flu etc."
Yes, it's not as if another, much more contagious as well as virulent infection should matter to them, is it?! They should be used to it by now, shouldn't they?! 'Learning to live with Covid' the way they have 'learned to live with' colds and flu. Notice the subtle way of saying that SARS-CoV-2 is like "colds, flu etc." without repeating the outright lie that it is no worse than "colds, flu etc."

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by dann

So we now have two Covid-minimizing posts to study:

Warp12:
Instead of using every opportunity to spread lies, it would be appreciated if he stopped or at least came up with documentation. I doubt that crackers and 905 appreciate his euphemism for their very serious condition as "these statistical outliers."
"As for the other aspect of your post, yes, even people on this forum have talked about enjoying masking and social distancing."

No, that's not another aspect of my post. I said nothing about about "enjoying masking and social distancing." Neither did crackers and 905. Saying that you are, for instance, 'happy to wear a helmet' because you know that it prevents you from getting killed, doesn't mean that you enjoy wearing it, obviously. And social distancing isn't mentioned at all, but who cares when we are making up stuff anyway, right?


That Warp12 himself belongs to one of the risk groups if infected with the virus, a much more common risk group than being immunocompromised, is only mentioned for reason of completeness.

Lplus:
"Immunocompromised people have always been advised to take extra precautions from the likes of colds, flu etc."
Yes, it's not as if another, much more contagious as well as virulent infection should matter to them, is it?! They should be used to it by now, shouldn't they?! 'Learning to live with Covid' the way they have 'learned to live with' colds and flu. Notice the subtle way of saying that SARS-CoV-2 is like "colds, flu etc." without repeating the outright lie that it is no worse than [i]"colds, flu etc."[/I]

Congratulations on comprehending my post correctly.

[dann]

I always do.

Quote:

Contrary to the myth that we are sliding into a comfortable evolutionary relationship with a common-cold-like, friendly virus, this is more like being trapped on a rollercoaster in a horror film. (Danny Altman, professor of epidemiology, Imperial College London.)
Where's the herd immunity? (Guardian, July 1, 2022)

[Rolfe]

I had a nice day yesterday. Drove to meet a friend. When she answered the door I asked her if she'd recently done anything covid-unsafe (unmasking in public in a poorly-ventilated space, basically) and she said no, and she'd just done a negative test. We decided to trust each other.

We drove to a nearby leisure centre and put our masks on as we entered the building. We spent two hours in an art exhibition, masked. It wasn't busy and the air quality was probably good, but why unmask if you don't have to? (I spent most of the time exclaiming how well I could see the exhibition with my new eyes.)

Then we went into the food mall, where all the restaurants had seating areas in the same big double-height atrium. I checked the air quality with the CO₂ meter I was carrying in my handbag, and discovered it was absolutely fine. So we selected our restaurant and were given a seat in a booth more than 2 metres from anyone else. We had a lovely meal, and the light on the CO₂ meter stayed green throughout. (If the air quality in the mall had been poor, our Plan B was to go to a nearby gastropub which we knew had outdoor seating.)

We masked up again to go to the car park, although again it was probably not necessary. But there have been stories of people being really unlucky and just walking too close to someone infectious at the wrong moment.

This is how you live with covid. Maybe it's easier because I was always used to complying with infection control protocols in my job, but you just work out a safety routine and stick with it. We go to the theatre and the cinema, masked, and it's a small price to pay for not spending time being ill. I don't even want to catch "just a cold", because I've been sick for two weeks with "just a cold" quite often in the past and have bitter memories of lying sick with pneumonia alone in the house over 30 years ago. No thanks, not again. Even though none of these bugs was at all likely to hand me permanent impairment as a reminder, I don't want a repeat.

My friend is immunocompromised according to her doctors. She disagrees, but took the extra vaccine dose anyway. Personally, I think if the doctors think so, she ought to consider they may be on to something (she has chronic leucopenia). I didn't qualify for the extra vaccine dose and my last dose was over seven months ago, so I'm not confident about my current level of protection.

Never mind, I'm starting to pack for a 10-day holiday in the Highlands, trail riding. Probably the safest activity you can do, as it's quite hard to get within breath-exchanging distance of another human being when you're all on horses. I'll just continue to mask up indoors and find somewhere with good air quality to eat. I've been doing a lot of riding in the spring to get fit for the holiday, including a whole day on the village common ride.

I'll be pretty happy when such precautions aren't necessary, or aren't so necessary, but while they are, they're way preferable to getting ill, especially with something that might hit you a lot harder than you bargained for. And it's still possible to have a good time and still stay acceptably safe. I'm just sorry for people who have children at school, or who work in an environment where masking isn't possible (this shouldn't happen, but I gather it does).

[Puppycow]

Well, it's as good as officially over now (at least in the US):

CDC drops quarantine, distancing recommendations for COVID

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Well, it's as good as officially over now (at least in the US):

CDC drops quarantine, distancing recommendations for COVID

It is, apparently.



Except it isn't, is it?

As it happens, I was speaking with a friend of mine, less than a half hour ago. Poor guy's come down with Covid. For the first time. He's a doctor, he's had all of the vaccine doses, and is super careful about masking and, where possible, distancing. Even now.

But he's come down with the thing, and while it's true he's not in ICU or anything, but he's still come down rather hard, well beyond what regular flu levels are like. Being treated, and is fully quarantined. Early days, hopefully he'll get through without complications.

Sure, things have eased off, a bit, in fact a great deal, from the dire conditions we've all seen and been through. But the thing isn't ******* over, not by a long shot, not yet.



But you're right, of course, as far as the official stance. For better or for worse, it's the rare oddball that still observes all of the Covid niceties these days.

[theprestige]

Some people come down with a really bad case of the flu, too.

I think you're tilting at windmills on this one. You say you want a formal scientific answer, but you reject all the indicators from the scientific authorities. You say you don't want a social or policy answer, so what do you want?

Are you imagining there must be some clear line, that can be drawn by a system of formal logic, between "pandemic" and "not pandemic"? And you're asking what that line is and what system of formal logic is used to draw it?

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Some people come down with a really bad case of the flu, too.

Occasionally, yes. Usually, no, not this bad.

Quote:

I think you're tilting at windmills on this one. You say you want a formal scientific answer, but you reject all the indicators from the scientific authorities.

I don't see how I'm doing that? Rejecting scientific authorities, that is?

Quote:

You say you don't want a social or policy answer, so what do you want?

I've agreed that this is, indeed, the policy answer.

What do I want? For this damn thing to go away for good. I realize we can't have everything we want, though.

As things stand, I can understand the policy decision. Economics is a thing after all, even if you leave aside politics. So I don't blame the policy decision, really. But I'm going to persist with my personal protection awhile longer. I realize this is starting to kinda sorta verge on the germaphobic, but better a germaphobe, for a while longer, than sorry.

Quote:

Are you imagining there must be some clear line, that can be drawn by a system of formal logic, between "pandemic" and "not pandemic"? And you're asking what that line is and what system of formal logic is used to draw it?

Er... no, I'm not? Not in that recent post of mine that you've quoted, at any rate. (But in general, sure, there's no reason why there shouldn't be a fairly clear line between "pandemic" and "not pandemic", even if a subective-ish one. And I can accept that that line seems to have been crossed, at this time. Which doesn't mean that we're all entirely out of danger, not quite yet; and how we deal with that remainder danger, and indeed how we assess the risk of such, I guess that's a personal thing?)

[Trebuchet]

New USA cases have been trending down for a couple of weeks after increasing through most of 2022. But they are still averaging over 100,000 per day according to the CDC. And two or three hundred people daily are dying.That doesn't spell "over" to me.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Well, it's as good as officially over now (at least in the US):

Heh. Five of my family members caught it this week.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Heh. Five of my family members caught it this week.

No complications, I hope? True, most cases these days don't amount to all that much. But some sure do, and with the elderly you never know.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by Chanakya

No complications, I hope? True, most cases these days don't amount to all that much. But some sure do, and with the elderly you never know.

TBD. My mom's 78, so far it's just "flu-like" but they're giving her paxlovid so here's hoping it doesn't get worse.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Heh. Five of my family members caught it this week.

No they didn't. I call absolute, unequivocal shenanigans.

I, vaxxed and boosted, caught it in February. MsTP, also vaxxed and boosted, sharing a single room loft with me, did not. Then in May she, also vaxxed and boosted, caught it, and I did not.

Even if your second cousin were patriarch of an inbred bug-chasing cult, it beggars belief that they all caught it at once. Are they all in China? Did they all get monkey pox (no relation) and are trying to play it off?

According to the ancient law: Pics or it didn't happen.

[xjx388]

Originally Posted by theprestige

No they didn't. I call absolute, unequivocal shenanigans.

I, vaxxed and boosted, caught it in February. MsTP, also vaxxed and boosted, sharing a single room loft with me, did not. Then in May she, also vaxxed and boosted, caught it, and I did not.

Even if your second cousin were patriarch of an inbred bug-chasing cult, it beggars belief that they all caught it at once. Are they all in China? Did they all get monkey pox (no relation) and are trying to play it off?

According to the ancient law: Pics or it didn't happen.

It happens. My wife just had a family of four get it along with other friends and family that were at a wedding. A lot more than 5 in that particular cluster. TM’s story is not at all unusual.

From my point of view, COVID hasn’t really slowed down at all; doctors and labs just stopped reporting cases. I think the situation is much worse than what “the numbers” make it look like.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by theprestige

No they didn't. I call absolute, unequivocal shenanigans.

I, vaxxed and boosted, caught it in February. MsTP, also vaxxed and boosted, sharing a single room loft with me, did not. Then in May she, also vaxxed and boosted, caught it, and I did not.

Even if your second cousin were patriarch of an inbred bug-chasing cult, it beggars belief that they all caught it at once. Are they all in China? Did they all get monkey pox (no relation) and are trying to play it off?

According to the ancient law: Pics or it didn't happen.

It was a family vacation at a rental house. One person felt ill and tested positive on Sunday morning. Three others had been travelling in a car with Patient 1 for the several days prior and thus felt they'd probably already got it and there was no point in leaving. My mother and I, having travelled separately, decided to bail on the vacation. Three days after our return my mother felt sick and tested positive today. I have tested negative. Those who'd stayed in the rental house have tested positive.

All of us had the number of vaccine doses we should have had, including boosters, and my mother being a senior has had two boosters. None of us wore masks indoors around each other (until the first postive test, anyway. After that mom and I isolated and masked until our flights).

Why on earth would I make this up? I'm out a couple of thousand bucks (changing plane tickets isn't cheap) and my first vacation since January 2019 has been ruined. What "pics" do you want? I can dig my negative covid test I took this morning out of the trash. My mom texted a photo of the paxlovid box she was given today, I could upload that.

It's an airborne virus which has (you may not have been paying attention for the last three years) been rather noticeably contagious. Why you think it unrealistic that five people in the same house would get it I can only chalk up to your ludicrous contrarianism.


eta: "pics" added. One of my test in front of my very own monitor with this very same post. The others are my mom's covid drugs. I did black out the identifying info. But of course these don't actually prove anything. I'm not sure what photographic proof is possible in this case. You want a video of a team of doctors testifying in court as to the identity of patients? But even then you wouldn't know I hadn't hired a bunch of actors.

[TheGoldcountry]

There are still morons that think it's no big deal just because it doesn't dominate the news anymore.

Cases are still (slowly) on the rise in my rural county, because it was one of the last to be hit by it in the beginning.

Today, I went to work, and my co-worker told me that she had just been casually chatting with a customer the day before when he revealed he had it. No big deal, though, he just had a little cough. He was glad his employer wasn't testing him; apparently, quarantining himself out of a sense of social responsibility wasn't even a distant thought.

Every day, there are more and more people I just want to slap, and it's still not legal, but walking around stupid is.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry

There are still morons that think it's no big deal just because it doesn't dominate the news anymore.

Cases are still (slowly) on the rise in my rural county, because it was one of the last to be hit by it in the beginning.

Today, I went to work, and my co-worker told me that she had just been casually chatting with a customer the day before when he revealed he had it. No big deal, though, he just had a little cough. He was glad his employer wasn't testing him; apparently, quarantining himself out of a sense of social responsibility wasn't even a distant thought.

Every day, there are more and more people I just want to slap, and it's still not legal, but walking around stupid is.

My coworker's wife and one son caught it right before his own vacation a few weeks ago...and he and his other son went on the vacation without them! That's kind of ice cold, especially because I think it was their wedding anniversary.

And one of my cousins and her husband have gotten covid a couple of times now, including in 2022. However my cousin is a [pause for shudder here] "dance mom" and hauls her daughters all over for competitions, so it's not surprising she's constantly plagued and frankly I'm not certain she doesn't deserve it. (Remember Donnie Darko, where his kid sister was in dance competitions? Every time my cousin's dance stuff is mentioned I hear the line "sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion")

CDC recommendation changes notwithstanding, I think we're still in the midst of this. The treatments are indeed getting better (three days of paxlovid and my sister says she feels "not that bad" now) but I think I shall continue masking in public. Good masks -- I use the N95s, and put a cloth one over it (mostly because it looks better, not because I think an added layer of cloth is doing much medically that the N95 isn't).

[ponderingturtle]

Originally Posted by Chanakya

It is, apparently.



Except it isn't, is it?

What it means is it has gone from pandemic to endemic, of course there are people getting sick and dying from it, but not in the huge waves like when it was a pandemic. COVID is certainly not going to go away any time soon.