How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Rolfe]

Well now, if your better masks are uncomfortable, that's at least a concrete reason. (The FFP2s I bought are probably more comfortable than the cloth masks I had at the start of the pandemic, but seldom if ever used.)

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

...And there are some drawbacks to the N95s. They are uncomfortable. This discomfort can be born during the pandemic because it's a much lesser problem than catching the disease. After the pandemic is over, however, when the necessity of masking at all is in question, then downgrading to a more comfortable alternative is not so unreasonable.

Afraid I disagree with the rest of your post, afraid none of that actually makes sense. But that's okay, those are incidentals, so let me not go splitting hairs over them. This here portion that I've quoted is the key part, so let's just go with that. And absolutely, basis this, your position does seem reasonable.

That is, I don't say I agree with your assessment. But then I wouldn't know, because I haven't actually even worn a cloth mask ever. N95s all through; and surgicals in the very early days when there was uncertainty plus availability was less plentiful than now; but cloth never; so I have no way to assess whether you're right, and no reason to disagree with your assessment. And in any case, my subjective opinion on that is irrelevant, obviously, it is your assessment that is relevant for you.

Agreed, given your assessment about the relative comfort of cloth masks vis-a-vis N95s, and given your assessment of the risk at this time, and given the subjective value you assign to the comfort factor --- and, naturally, regardless of what I might think about any of these three factors --- your decision to wear cloth masks does seem reasonable.

[bignickel]

To my mind, the pandemic is over if the percentage of fatalities of those who got sick with Covid19 are the same (or less) as the percentage of fatalities for those sick with the flu, AND the numbers of people catching Covid19 has dropped down to about the same number of people who've caught the flu.

Has it? Has that occurred? Has Paxlovid, etc been successful enough in saving the lives of those with severe Covid that the fatality % has dropped below the 1.5% or so fatality rate that we've seen since 2020?

I've read that with the flu, USA loses about 30K people a year. According to https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboar...23467b48e9ecf6 we've lost 12K to Covid19 in the last 28 days. That really doesn't sound to me like the pandemic is over yet...

[Rolfe]

Agreed.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Biden: ‘The pandemic is over’

President Biden is an idiot!

Quote:

The Biden administration had a promising start on its pandemic response. Now, the president is saying the pandemic is over as more than 500 people, on average, are dying each day from Covid-19. MSNBC medical contributor Dr. Kavita Patel and epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding join Mehdi to discuss Biden’s comments and the state of the pandemic.
Mehdi: No, President Biden, The Pandemic Is Not Over | The Mehdi Hasan Show (MSNBC on YouTube, Sep 20, 2022)

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Quote:

Why A Top Doctor Says Dining Indoors Still Isn't Worth The Risk | The Mehdi Hasan Show (MSNBC on YouTube, Sep 8, 2022 - 10:27)
As America steps confidently into being done with Covid, UCSF medical school professor Bob Wachter has decided that – for him – some of the risks many of us are now taking aren’t worth it.
He joins Mehdi to share why.
Why A Top Doctor Says Dining Indoors Still Isn't Worth The Risk | The Mehdi Hasan Show (MSNBC on YouTube, Sep 8, 2022 - 10:27)

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

The "top doctor" from the Mehdi Hasan Show:

Quote:

I’m not doing indoor dining, and I still wear a mask in crowded indoor spaces. While most in US have chosen to be less careful, in this 🧵 I’ll review the logic & math behind my decisions, hoping that some of you will find them useful in navigating today’s Covid landscape. (1/25)

Here’s my bottom line (in case this 🧵is TL;DR):
I’ll begin eating inside and removing my mask in most indoor spaces when the local reported case rate falls below 5/100,000/day.
You can find your local rate of cases/100K/day here
@nytimes: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2021...s-tracker.html (2/25)
(...)
Clearly, many will find my threshold too conservative; others too risky. Now that mandates are gone, we all need to make our own choices.
I won’t go into detail about why I’m still trying to avoid Covid– it's mostly Long Covid, as I explained here: https://washingtonpost.com/outlook/2...g-risk-masks/… (4/25)
(...)
I estimate that the chances of getting Covid from a moderate exposure to an infected person (sitting in my row on a plane or a nearby table in a restaurant) is ~5-10%. That's a rough guess – & would vary depending on things like exposure time, ventilation, distancing, etc. (8/25)
Dr Bob Wachter (Twitter, Aug 28, 2022)

See the thread to find out about how he calculates his risk of catching Covid on a plane or in a restaurant to be 5-10%.

[dann]

Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry

There are still morons that think it's no big deal just because it doesn't dominate the news anymore.

And the president of the USA is now one of them.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by dann

And the president of the USA is now one of them.

A president is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't: if he says it's over then he gets crucified for downplaying the current spread, if he says it's not over then he gets crucified for exaggerating the current spread. And if he says nothing he gets crucified for having nothing to say.

I wouldn't put too much weight on any politician's statements about whether this is "over" or not. There's not a lightbulb in the Oval Office that is lit when there's a pandemic then it goes dark when there's not.

[dann]

So damn him! Nothing forced Trump to downplay the pandemic. Nothing forces Biden to so so.
Especially when it obviously isn't: Omicron sublineage BA.2.75.2 exhibits extensive escape from neutralising antibodies (bioRxiv, Sep 16, 2022)
For Scandinavians: Ny coronavariant (BA.2.75.2) undslipper i ekstrem grad immunitet, siger eksperter (TV2.dk, Sep 20, 2022)

In the USA, the pandemic has been at approximately the same level since May (Our World in Data). And Winter Is Coming.
It is not as if the pandemic has a habit of peaking in September: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Our World in Data).
But Midterms Are Coming!

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Honestly, I don't know why anyone messes around with cloth masks, or even those useless surgical masks

I honestly have never even heard of “FFP3” or 2 masks. I don’t think we have those in Japan. I don’t know why you would call surgical masks “useless” or put them in the same category as cloth masks given that there are actual studies that prove that they work better. I’ve still not have Covid yet and those are all I have ever used. That includes regular use of crowded commuter trains.

Ultimately I guess it’s hard to really know much for sure. A mask is only effective when you use it and we all end up taking it off eventually. You cannot eat or drink while wearing a mask after all.

[Rolfe]

The FFP (fitted face protection, I think) standard is what is used in Britain, also in the rest of Europe I think. FFP2 is equivalent to what the Americans call N95. The FFP3 is a 99% rated mask.

I agree with you about the masks, I was being a bit hyperbolic to illustrate the difference between the surgical masks and the respirator-standard masks.

It's definitely possible to use masks intelligently to avoid infection. I carry a CO2 meter and only take the mask off to eat when the CO2 level is below 700 ppm. It's surprisingly easy to manage this most of the time. While we were in a plane my friend was thirsty and got a glass of water from the steward. She undid her mask only for a few seconds each sip, and tried not to inhale in that time. Not perfect, but that's the sort of thing that works. (Then she spilled the water all over me, and that was the end of that.)

I'm pretty sure I know how we got the virus. There was a lavish afternoon tea spread laid out on our river cruise boat, on the last day. This was three days after the concert in Vienna which was a slam-dunk superspreader. I think others on the boat who had not masked for the concert were infectious that day, and my friend and I got too near one of them in the scrum for the cakes, even though the CO2 meter was reading OK. If we had masked to collect the cakes then taken our haul to a table a couple of metres from anyone else, I think we'd have been OK. We'd just got too used to being unmasked on the boat, because all its public spaces were well ventilated and had good CO2 levels.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I honestly have never even heard of “FFP3” or 2 masks. I don’t think we have those in Japan.

I think you do! (Amazon.co.jp)

Even cloth masks are better than nothing, but it depends on the circumstances. I get the impression that most Cubans, for instance, are using cloth masks. In addition to their vaccination campaign, it seems to have done the trick because the contagion there is as low as it is at this point.
However, in circumstances where the contagion is high, many people don't mask up, and you thus need to protect yourself from those who go unprotected, I would recommend face masks with a higher level of filtration, i.e. FFP2 or FFP3.
At this point, I would recommend the better masks on public transport or public indoor settings in Japan.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people: USA, Japan, Cuba (Our World in Data)

Coronavirus: Face mask, face shield, FFP2, N95, KN95 — what's the difference? (DW, June 29, 2021)

[lobosrul5]

I won't make a fuss where masks are mandated or whoever's premise I enter requires them, but other than that I'm done with them.

We are down to 3 deaths a day (7 day rolling average) from COVID, up from two a day a few weeks ago in my state. Most of those people are likely unvaccinated or have serious health risks anyways; I'm vaccinated (3x) and have no conditions that would make COVID more serious. I figure my odds of dying from COVID at this point are miniscule compared to many other causes of death.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/u...ntry=~All+ages

Looks like the death rate for all people, no matter their age is .4 per 100,000 per annum if fully vaccinated and boosted. By way of comparison, the murder rate in the city I live in is about 30 times higher (were on murder #128 of the year so far, in a city of 600k). The motor vehicle accident rate in my state is about 58 times higher (it was 23.5/100k in 2021) than the vaccinated covid death rate.

Biden might be wrong that is over, but with rates like this, its no longer a serious concern for the vaccinated and healthy part of the population.

[novaphile]

I use a mix of N95 disposable masks, and washable cloth masks which hold disposable N95 filters.

The reason why I use the cloth masks, is that there are situations that require a lot of conversation.

I find that the N95 disposables climb up my face, and jam the sharp edges into my eyes while I'm talking. (Crossing over the elastic straps reduces, but does not prevent, this problem)

The cloth masks with the disposable filter pads, are much larger and cover my whole face from the bridge of my nose to underneath my chin, and most importantly do not climb around on my face.

I notice that all of the 'cloth mask useless' comments seem to ignore the idea that cloth masks may be holding filters in place.

Given where we're at in the pandemic, and the fact that I still haven't caught covid, I'm happy that I'm doing the right thing.

Happy accident...

The N95 disposable masks are absolutely brilliant for when I'm working with power tools and timber.

[dann]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Most of those people are likely unvaccinated or have serious health risks anyways; I'm vaccinated (3x) and have no conditions that would make COVID more serious. I figure my odds of dying from COVID at this point are miniscule compared to many other causes of death.
(...)
Biden might be wrong that is over, but with rates like this, its no longer a serious concern for the vaccinated and healthy part of the population.

Good for you that you're healthy and not one of those people, but some people (even some people in this thread) are those people (and not because they're unvaccinated), and others are now no longer healthy due to the virus. Besides, you may not be as well protected as you think.
You do know that face masks work on both the air going in and the air going out, don't you?! They protect others when you are the one shedding the virus.

[Rolfe]

That last is why I didn't go near anyone for a week once I realised I had it. My FFP3 masks have exhalation vents, so they're useless at protecting anyone else from me. Once I was testing negative I bought a box of FFP2s without exhalation valves, although I have no intention of letting this happen again.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by novaphile

I use a mix of N95 disposable masks, and washable cloth masks which hold disposable N95 filters.

The reason why I use the cloth masks, is that there are situations that require a lot of conversation.

I find that the N95 disposables climb up my face, and jam the sharp edges into my eyes while I'm talking. (Crossing over the elastic straps reduces, but does not prevent, this problem)

The cloth masks with the disposable filter pads, are much larger and cover my whole face from the bridge of my nose to underneath my chin, and most importantly do not climb around on my face.

I notice that all of the 'cloth mask useless' comments seem to ignore the idea that cloth masks may be holding filters in place.

Given where we're at in the pandemic, and the fact that I still haven't caught covid, I'm happy that I'm doing the right thing.

Happy accident...

The N95 disposable masks are absolutely brilliant for when I'm working with power tools and timber.

I had no clue you could have cloth masks that can hold N95 filters. Are you sure those filters stay effective even after washing? If they do, then agreed, those cloth masks would then be no less effective than the regular N95s, and what's more they'd then look like a better proposition (in terms of both the ecological impact, as well as the cost). Add to that the comfort factor that both you and TM speak of --- and that I've no opinion on, never having used them --- and absolutely, cloth masks would then come out as decisively better than the disposables.

eta: And add on top of all of that the eshetics of it, because I'm sure cloth masks can be made out to look better than these disposables.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by dann

Good for you that you're healthy and not one of those people, but some people (even some people in this thread) are those people (and not because they're unvaccinated), and others are now no longer healthy due to the virus. Besides, you may not be as well protected as you think.
You do know that face masks work on both the air going in and the air going out, don't you?! They protect others when you are the one shedding the virus.

Very true. This is the part that people keep forgetting, somehow, even after all this time.

And this is exactly why when there is a question of doubt, a question of subjectivity, then it is better to err on the side of caution than on the side of ...going bare. Because you may well be cavalier about your own wellbeing, and see it as your business and no one else's; but you have no right to endanger others. ("Right" in ethical terms, I mean to say, and regardless of the law. As far as the law what is your "right" is pretty much clearly laid out, and needs no thinking over. But if the law leaves it to you, and if there's still risk, then while you may not care about your own safety, but do you have the right to not care about others' safety and wellbeing?)

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by Chanakya

I had no clue you could have cloth masks that can hold N95 filters. Are you sure those filters stay effective even after washing? If they do, then agreed, those cloth masks would then be no less effective than the regular N95s

I think they'd still be less effective regardless of filters because that's not the only criterion for masking quality: there's also the adherence to the face. N95s are serious and attach very firmly (mine have two pretty tight straps that go across the back of the head). Most cloth masks are of the loop-over-ears type, which provide inferior attachment.

Quote:

eta: And add on top of all of that the eshetics of it, because I'm sure cloth masks can be made out to look better than these disposables.

I actually wear my nice black cloth mask over my N95, not because it adds any protective value but because it looks nicer. My N95s are industrial ones and look a bit alarming. Also I didn't want to inspire envy among those who might not have gotten any N95s. At first glance it looks like I'm just wearing the cloth mask, until you notice the yellow straps going behind my head, and the white edges sticking out behind the cloth.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

I think they'd still be less effective regardless of filters because that's not the only criterion for masking quality: there's also the adherence to the face. N95s are serious and attach very firmly (mine have two pretty tight straps that go across the back of the head). Most cloth masks are of the loop-over-ears type, which provide inferior attachment.



I actually wear my nice black cloth mask over my N95, not because it adds any protective value but because it looks nicer. My N95s are industrial ones and look a bit alarming. Also I didn't want to inspire envy among those who might not have gotten any N95s. At first glance it looks like I'm just wearing the cloth mask, until you notice the yellow straps going behind my head, and the white edges sticking out behind the cloth.

Oh, is that what you were talking about? That's a clear win-win, no question.

They did ask that we use two masks at one time, but I confess I did that only rarely, because I found that too uncomfortable. (Could be psychological. In any case, it can be argued that my comfort shouldn't have figured so strongly in my decision, especially back then. Whatever, I generally went with just the one, the N95, even back then; and now as well, obviously.)


eta:

Quote:

I think they'd still be less effective regardless of filters because that's not the only criterion for masking quality: there's also the adherence to the face.

True. Although arguably that could be addressed by getting cloth masks that have straps, because why not; but on the other hand it's a question of what's available, I guess. I've no clue myself if they make them with straps at all, but I guess not, else you wouldn't have said what you did.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Chanakya

I had no clue you could have cloth masks that can hold N95 filters. Are you sure those filters stay effective even after washing?

It isn't clear to me what kind of filters TragicMonkey is talking about. I have a cloth mask to be used with paper filters. The cloth mask is washable. The filters aren't.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by dann

Good for you that you're healthy and not one of those people, but some people (even some people in this thread) are those people (and not because they're unvaccinated), and others are now no longer healthy due to the virus. Besides, you may not be as well protected as you think.
You do know that face masks work on both the air going in and the air going out, don't you?! They protect others when you are the one shedding the virus.

I see you are using the CDC as a source, when the CDC themselves are saying its no longer necessary for most people to wear masks. Soooo... I'll just stick to what they recommend. Theres always going to be "those people" who are at higher risk from communicable diseases whether COVID or otherwise. Yet, we didn't mandate masks to protect them before COVID. We're either at the point of masks being unnecessary from the POV of public health or we should just require them in public for forever. But, sure of course, if I'm visiting a retirement community I'll wear a mask.

And also I should add due to my job I was tested weekly for COVID until pretty recently and never was positive because I took precautions very seriously.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by dann

It isn't clear to me what kind of filters TragicMonkey is talking about. I have a cloth mask to be used with paper filters. The cloth mask is washable. The filters aren't.

It was somebody else who said their cloth mask "held N95 filters". My own cloth masks have something between the layers of cloth, what it is I do not know. I'm not going to dissect them to find out. But it's waterproof -- when I wash these masks, they can hold water like a cup would, water doesn't pass through. So there's definitely something in them besides cloth, but what exactly it is I don't know. I feel comfortable assuming they are therefore superior to purely-cloth masks without those layers, although obviously inferior to an N95.

[Myriad]

A simple case in point for contingent precautions: my wife wakes up with a sore throat this morning, so off I go to the drugstore to get some throat lozenges. Does she have Covid-19? Can't rule it out. If she does, how likely is it that I also have it but am in an asymptomatic contagious stage? Reasonably. And if it's not Covid-19, is it something else that I could also have and be contagious? Probably. So, KN-95 (the best I've got) mask in the drugstore.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

It was somebody else who said their cloth mask "held N95 filters". My own cloth masks have something between the layers of cloth, what it is I do not know. I'm not going to dissect them to find out. But it's waterproof -- when I wash these masks, they can hold water like a cup would, water doesn't pass through. So there's definitely something in them besides cloth, but what exactly it is I don't know. I feel comfortable assuming they are therefore superior to purely-cloth masks without those layers, although obviously inferior to an N95.

That sounds as if it would suffocate you.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Myriad

A simple case in point for contingent precautions: my wife wakes up with a sore throat this morning, so off I go to the drugstore to get some throat lozenges. Does she have Covid-19? Can't rule it out. If she does, how likely is it that I also have it but am in an asymptomatic contagious stage? Reasonably. And if it's not Covid-19, is it something else that I could also have and be contagious? Probably. So, KN-95 (the best I've got) mask in the drugstore.

Sure it would great if everyone who suspected they might have a communicable disease with airborne transmission would socially distance if possible and wear a mask if not. Also, would be super ******* great if we'd mandate sick leave for people especially in the food service industry (wonder how many lives that would save). But thats almost a whole other topic.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

That sounds as if it would suffocate you.

I'm pretty sure I would have noticed if I suffocated. Or if it escaped my notice, someone else would have noticed.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by bignickel

Has it? Has that occurred? Has Paxlovid, etc been successful enough in saving the lives of those with severe Covid that the fatality % has dropped below the 1.5% or so fatality rate that we've seen since 2020?

The 1.5% was a myth at every stage of the pandemic, and as noted, the current death rate is very low.

There have been 100M notified cases in the past 4.5 months. During that same period, 240,000 people have died. That's a whopping 0.2% fatality rate, and note that number is considerably inflated by there being a lot more people sick in May than September, and the case rate hugely understated due to people not self-reporting.

So yes, the rate is well below 1.5%.

Originally Posted by bignickel

... we've lost 12K to Covid19 in the last 28 days. That really doesn't sound to me like the pandemic is over yet...

The current 7-day average is 286 a day, just over half what it was at the start of that 28-day period.

By a neat turn of statistics, the covid death rate will be less than 10% of the cardiovascular death rate in America within the next few days.

I wonder if we gave things like that the panicked response some people think we should be taking towards covid we might actually save a lot more lives than a disease which is now an endemic disease that we need to learn to live with.

I'm not even going to bother noting the vast majority of people dying of covid are extremely old - the facts are stark enough without comment.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#SexAndAge

Originally Posted by dann

President Biden is an idiot!

10/10 for letting covid panic ignore the realities of politics. He might be an idiot, but he would have been downright insane to try to take covid seriously right now.

Originally Posted by dann

See the thread to find out about how he calculates his risk of catching Covid on a plane or in a restaurant to be 5-10%.

Wow! A 5-10% chance of catching covid from being on a plane or in a restaurant? Maybe you're right to panic.

Except, you're being dishonest as hell. Let's have a look at what he actually says:

Quote:

I estimate that the chances of getting Covid from a moderate exposure to an infected person (sitting in my row on a plane or a nearby table in a restaurant) is ~5-10%. That's a rough guess – & would vary depending on things like exposure time, ventilation, distancing, etc.

bolding mine

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I won't make a fuss where masks are mandated or whoever's premise I enter requires them, but other than that I'm done with them.

We are down to 3 deaths a day (7 day rolling average) from COVID, up from two a day a few weeks ago in my state. Most of those people are likely unvaccinated or have serious health risks anyways; I'm vaccinated (3x) and have no conditions that would make COVID more serious. I figure my odds of dying from COVID at this point are miniscule compared to many other causes of death.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/u...ntry=~All+ages

Looks like the death rate for all people, no matter their age is .4 per 100,000 per annum if fully vaccinated and boosted. By way of comparison, the murder rate in the city I live in is about 30 times higher (were on murder #128 of the year so far, in a city of 600k). The motor vehicle accident rate in my state is about 58 times higher (it was 23.5/100k in 2021) than the vaccinated covid death rate.

Biden might be wrong that is over, but with rates like this, its no longer a serious concern for the vaccinated and healthy part of the population.

Bravo!

You're not going to be popular, introducing common sense like that. (and bonus points for mentioning car deaths!)

Another point I think is clearly way above the heads of the panicking brigade, if we ask people to wear masks when the threat is absurdly low, good luck trying to get them to wear masks if a really deadly virus arises.

[TragicMonkey]

On the other hand, one of the effects of the population lowering their masking use is going to be a spike in cases. I wonder if a graduated approach would work better. Maybe do it by birthdays: first only the people born in January stop masking, then a month later extend it to February, and so on. That way we'd only be increasing the risk by roughly 8 percent of the population at a time, and could reverse course if the spike was too much. But I doubt the general population would comply with that sort of thing, they're more likely to do whatever the people closest to them are doing...and of course those are the people most likely to infect them.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

On the other hand, one of the effects of the population lowering their masking use is going to be a spike in cases. I wonder if a graduated approach would work better. Maybe do it by birthdays: first only the people born in January stop masking, then a month later extend it to February, and so on. That way we'd only be increasing the risk by roughly 8 percent of the population at a time, and could reverse course if the spike was too much. But I doubt the general population would comply with that sort of thing, they're more likely to do whatever the people closest to them are doing...and of course those are the people most likely to infect them.

Mask usage in my area has been pretty low over the last few months. I see maybe 1 person in 10 wearing a mask when shopping, and no one at restaurants or bars. And, we've had no spike.

[dann]

Yet another panic attack!

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I wonder if we gave things like that the panicked response some people think we should be taking towards covid we might actually save a lot more lives than a disease which is now an endemic disease that we need to learn to live with.

I'm not even going to bother noting the vast majority of people dying of covid are extremely old - the facts are stark enough without comment.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#SexAndAge

The vast majority! Extremely old! Let's see what counts as a vast majority and extremely old according to The Atheist:

Quote:

All deaths involving COVID-19
0-17 years 1.282
18-29 years 6.574
30-39 years 18.893
40-49 years 44.383
50-64 years 193.560
65-74 years 239.342
75-84 years 271.923
85+ years 274.824
All ages 1.050.781

Everybody 75+ makes a majority of all deaths, but it's hardly what normal people would call vast. Considering The Atheist's fondness for hyperbole, it's difficult to say what he would consider to be a vast majority, but if we say everybody 50+, then they make out more than 90 percent of all Covid-19 deaths. I would call that a vast majority. Everybody 65+ would be about 75 percent of all Covid 19 deaths. So depending on The Atheist's definition of a "vast majority", people older than either 50 or 65 are not only old, but "extremely old."

Thanks to the pandemic, The Atheist's measure for who is old enough to be expendable seems to have moved down a notch from 80+. I wonder how many of the people in this thread are so old that it is insane to take the threat to their health and lives seriously!

Originally Posted by The Atheist

10/10 for letting covid panic ignore the realities of politics. He might be an idiot, but he would have been downright insane to try to take covid seriously right now.

Originally Posted by dann

See the thread to find out about how he calculates his risk of catching Covid on a plane or in a restaurant to be 5-10%.

Wow! A 5-10% chance of catching covid from being on a plane or in a restaurant? Maybe you're right to panic.

Except, you're being dishonest as hell. Let's have a look at what he actually says:

Quote:

I estimate that the chances of getting Covid from a moderate exposure to an infected person (sitting in my row on a plane or a nearby table in a restaurant) is ~5-10%. That's a rough guess – & would vary depending on things like exposure time, ventilation, distancing, etc.

bolding mine

The Atheist's concept of "being dishonest as hell" and pretending to present the facts (unlike me, apparently) is (who would have thought?!) dishonest as hell:
Did he dig up something that I had been trying to hide?! No, not at all. As proof of my alleged dishonesty, he quotes an excerpt of the quotation that I presented.

I still recommend that you go to Dr Bob Wachter's Twitter thread to see his calculations based on the facts of the pandemic - instead of on The Atheist's hyperbole and wishful thinking. I find Wachter's calculations based on "@UCSFHospitals' asymptomatic test positivity rate (ATPR) as a measure of the odds that someone (in SF) who feels fine actually has Covid" very convincing. It leads him to reason like this:

Quote:

I was asked this week by my 8 poker guys (all vaxxed/boosted) if I was up for playing inside. My response: yes, if everybody tested. Reasoning: in a crowd of 8 people in a city w/ an ATPR of 2.9%, there’s a 21% chance that one would have Covid, a bit high for my taste

It is obvious that the estimated risk depends on the current level of contagion (which is also an estimate).
By the way, it's not the risk of dying as much as the risk of getting long Covid that bothers him. And he is very cool and calm, and he exhibits no signs of panicking - unlike The Atheist.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Bravo!

You're not going to be popular, introducing common sense like that. (and bonus points for mentioning car deaths!)

Another point I think is clearly way above the heads of the panicking brigade, if we ask people to wear masks when the threat is absurdly low, good luck trying to get them to wear masks if a really deadly virus arises.

Those traffic deaths! The Atheist can't seem to get enough of them:

Quote:

According to the latest data, 352 persons lost their life in road crashes in 2019. This represents a 6.9% decline on 2018. In 2018, 378 persons lost their lives in traffic crashes in New Zealand
Road Safety Data (International Transport Forum)

Compared to:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand in 2022, i.e. Jan 1 to Sep 21 ... and counting.

1,924

If we ask people to watch where they're going, to stop looking at their cell phones while driving, and to use seatbelts and helmets in traffic, good luck trying to get them to pay attention to traffic lights! What were we talking about? Really?!

Minimizers gonna minimize!

[dann]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Mask usage in my area has been pretty low over the last few months. I see maybe 1 person in 10 wearing a mask when shopping, and no one at restaurants or bars. And, we've had no spike.

Around here, almost nobody wears them anymore. And it shows!
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Denmark
Covid-19 deaths June 1 to Aug 31:
2020 48
2021 68
2022 555
In spite of vaccinations. And in spite of the allegedly mild Omicron variant, which were the reasons given for abandoning the mask mandate in supermarkets and on public transport.

And since we now get "bonus points for mentioning car deaths!":

Quote:

According to the latest WHO data published in 2020 Road Traffic Accidents Deaths in Denmark reached 213 or 0.47% of total deaths. The age adjusted Death Rate is 3.00 per 100,000 of population ranks Denmark #169 in the world.
Road Traffic Accidents in Denmark (World Health Rankings)

It goes without saying that not all road traffic accident deaths are car deaths.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, two and a half years, Denmark has had 7,016 Covid-19 deaths.

[dann]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

I'm pretty sure I would have noticed if I suffocated. Or if it escaped my notice, someone else would have noticed.

Obviously. But based on your own description, it does sound as if you would suffocate.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by dann

Around here, almost nobody wears them anymore. And it shows!
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Denmark
Covid-19 deaths June 1 to Aug 31:
2020 48
2021 68
2022 555
In spite of vaccinations. And in spite of the allegedly mild Omicron variant, which were the reasons given for abandoning the mask mandate in supermarkets and on public transport.

And since we now get "bonus points for mentioning car deaths!":

It goes without saying that not all road traffic accident deaths are car deaths.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, two and a half years, Denmark has had 7,016 Covid-19 deaths.

I should have specified, traffic accident deaths. There were 470 of them here in 2021. I did the math a bit wrong, since we have a population of 2 million its only a rate of 23.5 per 100,000.

Our rolling 7 day average of new COVID cases is down to 230. There are currently only 13 people in the entire state in the ICU for COVID. AND the rates in the county I live in are actually much lower than the state at large (since we have some MAGA territory counties with lots of antivaccers mostly near the Texas border).

Given the data from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2796235

I can pretty safely extrapolate that among those 13 people in the ICU most likely no more than 2 or 3 are fully vaccinated.

The state department of health and the CDC no longer consider COVID a crisis, and I'm going to chose to trust them. What applies here does not necessarily apply to Denmark.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by dann

Obviously. But based on your own description, it does sound as if you would suffocate.

No it doesn't. Seriously, are people unaware that materials exist that are impermeable to liquids but not to air?

eta: I looked up my past order when I bought these, it says 3 layers of "100% cotton" but specifies "sports mesh fabric" in the interior. Which may or may not also be cotton? But it's woven differently somehow. I can post a photo of the damn thing holding water if you'd like.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

On the other hand, one of the effects of the population lowering their masking use is going to be a spike in cases. I wonder if a graduated approach would work better. Maybe do it by birthdays: first only the people born in January stop masking, then a month later extend it to February, and so on. That way we'd only be increasing the risk by roughly 8 percent of the population at a time, and could reverse course if the spike was too much. But I doubt the general population would comply with that sort of thing, they're more likely to do whatever the people closest to them are doing...and of course those are the people most likely to infect them.

Of course, the reality is that UK and Australia, where masks were thrown away a while back, haven't seen a spike in cases.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

Yet another panic attack!

Yes, I do wish you'd keep it to yourself, but I'm here to correct your mistakes, so it's ok.

Originally Posted by dann

The vast majority! Extremely old! Let's see what counts as a vast majority and extremely old according to The Atheist:

For the past month, it's been 2400 out of 3600 deaths aged 75 and over.

The numbers you quote over the past year have little relevance, so yet again you're being dishonest by painting a historical picture and claiming it as current reality.

Originally Posted by dann

Did he dig up something that I had been trying to hide?! No, not at all.

You presented the odds as a chance of it happening in a restaurant or plane.

The reality was he referred to the chances if someone in the plane or restaurant had covid. That's a vastly different proposition.

You weren't hiding it, you were posting dishonestly.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

The 1.5% was a myth at every stage of the pandemic, and as noted, the current death rate is very low.

There have been 100M notified cases in the past 4.5 months. During that same period, 240,000 people have died. That's a whopping 0.2% fatality rate, and note that number is considerably inflated by there being a lot more people sick in May than September, and the case rate hugely understated due to people not self-reporting.

So yes, the rate is well below 1.5%.



The current 7-day average is 286 a day, just over half what it was at the start of that 28-day period.

By a neat turn of statistics, the covid death rate will be less than 10% of the cardiovascular death rate in America within the next few days.

I wonder if we gave things like that the panicked response some people think we should be taking towards covid we might actually save a lot more lives than a disease which is now an endemic disease that we need to learn to live with.

I'm not even going to bother noting the vast majority of people dying of covid are extremely old - the facts are stark enough without comment.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#SexAndAge





10/10 for letting covid panic ignore the realities of politics. He might be an idiot, but he would have been downright insane to try to take covid seriously right now.



Wow! A 5-10% chance of catching covid from being on a plane or in a restaurant? Maybe you're right to panic.

Except, you're being dishonest as hell. Let's have a look at what he actually says:



bolding mine



Bravo!

You're not going to be popular, introducing common sense like that. (and bonus points for mentioning car deaths!)

Another point I think is clearly way above the heads of the panicking brigade, if we ask people to wear masks when the threat is absurdly low, good luck trying to get them to wear masks if a really deadly virus arises.

Why, as far as the highlighted?

Not going into the rights or wrongs of your overall argument, but I don't follow this part. Why do you think people who scare easy and wear masks even when they're not really needed, will be less likely --- less, not more --- to wear masks if some deadly virus shows up and masks do become a necessity, or more of one than they are now?

(Nitpicking, kind of, I realize. Perfectly fine if that was just loosely worded sentence, and you didn't mean it that way. That part makes no difference, one way or the other, to your larger argument ---- which, incidentally, I kind of disagree with, but leave that [larger] part be. Just wondering about this nit, is all.)

[dann]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I should have specified, traffic accident deaths. There were 470 of them here in 2021. I did the math a bit wrong, since we have a population of 2 million its only a rate of 23.5 per 100,000.

Our rolling 7 day average of new COVID cases is down to 230. There are currently only 13 people in the entire state in the ICU for COVID. AND the rates in the county I live in are actually much lower than the state at large (since we have some MAGA territory counties with lots of antivaccers mostly near the Texas border).

Given the data from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2796235

I can pretty safely extrapolate that among those 13 people in the ICU most likely no more than 2 or 3 are fully vaccinated.

The state department of health and the CDC no longer consider COVID a crisis, and I'm going to chose to trust them. What applies here does not necessarily apply to Denmark.

I don't know. Some things seem to be pretty similar. Denmark declared that Covid-19 was no longer a crisis, i.e. "a threat to society," and removed mask mandates and all other restrictions on Feb 1, 2022. At that point, Denmark had had 3,770 Covid-19 deaths - in a relatively well-vaccinated population. Now, Sep 22, we have 7,021. So by the end of this year, we will have had as many Covid-19 deaths since February as we had since the beginning of the pandemic until it stopped being a "threat to society" on Feb 1. And people in general and in particular old people seem to think that 'not a threat to society' means not a threat to their own health and lives. It doesn't.

"No longer considered a crisis" means: 'We know that people will continue to spread the virus, but, except for vaccinations, we encourage you to ignore it and learn to live (and die) with it', which is so much easier to do when the health authorities and the media give up on telling people the facts about the pandemic. Until very recently most messages were trying to reassure people and telling them that everything was fine. I haven't seen the number of deaths in the three pandemic summers, 2020: 48, 2021: 68:, 2022: 555, mentioned anywhere, which is probably the reason why my friends tend to doubt it when I tell them about those numbers.

By reducing the number of tests (Denmark was testing more per capita than any other country until February 2022, and TTI helped keep the numbers down), people look at the number of new daily infections now and believe that everthing is fine. They tend to ignore the percentage of positives because ... why is that relevant?! ... if they even scroll so far down the page. See both here: Dagens coronatal: Opdateres kl 14 på hverdage (TV2.dk)
Smittede siden pandemiens begyndelse: infections since the beginning of the pandemic
Positivprocent: percentage of positive tests

When restrictions and mask mandates were removed, people were told that they now had "super immunity" due to the vaccines. But there is no such thing with a virus that learns to spread faster and evade immunity from vaccines and/or previous infections the way SARS-CoV-2 does. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...09.15.507787v1

[dann]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Yes, I do wish you'd keep it to yourself, but I'm here to correct your mistakes, so it's ok.

For the past month, it's been 2400 out of 3600 deaths aged 75 and over.

The numbers you quote over the past year have little relevance, so yet again you're being dishonest by painting a historical picture and claiming it as current reality.

So 1,200 deaths in people younger than 75? I bet that will comfort them immensely. As for dishonesty, I took the numbers from The Atheist's own link and never claimed that they were from the past month only, so the dishonesty is all his.

Quote:

You presented the odds as a chance of it happening in a restaurant or plane.

The reality was he referred to the chances if someone in the plane or restaurant had covid. That's a vastly different proposition.

You weren't hiding it, you were posting dishonestly.

So I'll have to correct The Atheist's dishonesty again: No, he didn't refer to the chances of someone on a plane or in a restaurant having Covid-19. He referred to the chances of getting it from someone sitting near him on a plane or in a restaurant, someone much more likely to infect him than somebody at the other end of a plane or a restaurant.

The Atheist no longer wants to quote from Dr Bob Wachter's text since it only agrees with him when he resorts to false summaries. This was what it actually said:
"I estimate that the chances of getting Covid from a moderate exposure to an infected person (sitting in my row on a plane or a nearby table in a restaurant) is ~5-10%. That's a rough guess – & would vary depending on things like exposure time, ventilation, distancing, etc."

Stop lying!

[dann]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

No it doesn't. Seriously, are people unaware that materials exist that are impermeable to liquids but not to air?

Yes, I ride a motorcycle, so I know all about them: "a range of technologies such as GORE-TEX provide effective protection against rain while also ensuring optimal grip and feel."
Unfortunately, in spite of GORE-TEX, my allegedly waterproof motorcycle gloves always get soaking wet, and when it's hot, they don't even remove sweat from my hands by letting it evaporate through the permeable membranes ... and BS like that. I hope they at least offer the promised protection in an accident.
(I never tried breathing through them! I hope it won't be necessary. )

Quote:

eta: I looked up my past order when I bought these, it says 3 layers of "100% cotton" but specifies "sports mesh fabric" in the interior. Which may or may not also be cotton? But it's woven differently somehow. I can post a photo of the damn thing holding water if you'd like.

No, I believe that it's holding water. That wasn't the point. I would look up tests of your face mask if I were you. Maybe it does do what it promises, but maybe it doesn't.

ETA: Since you said that you use it to keep paper face masks in place, I think you'll be fine.