How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Quote:

The CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 has more than doubled its share of the Covid-19 pie each week for the last four, rising from about 4% to 41% of new infections over the month of December. In the Northeast, the CDC estimates, XBB.1.5 is causing 75% of new cases.
(...)
He found that XBB.1 was the slipperiest of them all. It was 63 times less likely to be neutralized by antibodies in the blood of infected and vaccinated people than BA.2 and 49 times less likely to be neutralized compared with BA.4 and BA.5.
In terms of immune evasion, Ho says, these variants have shifted as far away from the antibodies we have made to use against them as the original Omicron variant was from the Covid-19 viruses that preceded it roughly a year ago.
He calls these levels of immune evasion “alarming” and said they could further compromise the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines. His findings were recently published in the journal Cell.
Omicron offshoot XBB.1.5 could drive new Covid-19 surge in US (CNN, Jan 3, 2022)

Will We See A Cold Weather Wave of COVID This Year? Dr. Fauci Weighs In

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Doctor's Orders: Stephen's Rapid-Fire Q&A With Anthony Fauci, M.D.

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Dr. Fauci Gets His Booster Shot LIVE on The Late Show

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[dann]

This is very much unlike your usual posts, RR:

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

You misunderstand. The Atheist said 'going to be much lower than that'. Who knows, he may be right - some day.

I don't know if this is supposed to be a joke, but if it isn't: Why did you delete this part for The Atheist's quotation?: "Barring a new variant of concern, the pandemic is done and dusted." It is obvious that his claim was about the current situation, i.e. 2022, and not about the far future.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

New Zealand scrapped their mask mandate on September 12. But the death rate from covid rose dramatically long before that, corresponding to lifting lockdowns because the virus had mutated to a form that was unstoppable.

It wasn't (and isn't) unstoppable. And the NZ death rate rose dramatically when the country abandoned ZeroCovid.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Since the mask mandate was 'retired' (except in medical facitilies and retirement homes, where they really should be used all the time anyway) the infection rate has slowly climbed, but nowhere near where it got to at the height of Omicron.

You do know that it's summer in NZ right now, don't you?!

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Most of the deaths occurred during the period when Omicron 'escaped' into the wider community, and they were almost all old frail people like The Atheist said (a real tragedy for sure, but what can you do with a variant that's unstoppable? Even China has had to concede...).

Yes, the media in Western countries is celebrating that China appears to have lost control of the virus and is following in the footsteps of NZ and the rest of the Western world. And now that the number of infections in China appears to be rising rapidly, let's not forget that China's ZeroCovid strategy was condemned as a human rights violation and protestors against it were celebrated as freedom fighters: Artist wears 27 hazmat suits to protest China's policies (CNN, Oct 20, 2022)

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Yes, masks work - but with the current strains they don't work well enough to make much of a difference. Vaccinations are more important. Unfortunately New Zealand has not managed to achieve the vaccination levels it could have. I suspect this is due to people thinking the pandemic was over so they didn't need boosters.

Whenever new and more contagious variants appear, face masks that are not 100% effective (and most of them aren't) will allow more transmission of the virus to occur. However, that doesn't mean that they don't make much of a difference, as Skeptic Ginger already pointed out. And you seem to forget or deliberately ignore the immune evasion of new variants, which makes vaccinations even less reliable than they already were.
The Swiss cheese model is still true as long as vaccinations don't give us 100% immunity - and they are very far from doing that.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

It's not over yet. However I think it probably will be by the end of this year.

Yes, you think so. And The Atheist thought so last year, but nothing at all seems to indicate that it's true. You seem to think that ignoring SARS-CoV-2 as if it were the flu will probably make it behave as if it were. Not true. I just saw the current number of infections with flu and Covid-19 in Sweden (where it's winter, unlike in NZ): Flu: 1,452 - Covid-19: 12,801

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Covid is becoming the new 'flu. Eventually the death rate will reach similar levels.

And you base this idea on what exactly?! Hope is not a strategy.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

I think we will be seeing signs like this for a long time to come. But unlike before we will jump on them fast. You will get a booster to ward off the latest variants, just we get a 'flu shot every year. We are not going to see the true pandemic numbers of before. The virus will have become endemic.

The boosters don't "ward off the latest variants" because the boosters to ward off the latest variants haven't been made yet, and when they get around to making them, they still need to be tested before they go into production. At that point, even newer variants will have appeared. I'm a big fan of Covid vaccinations, but the ones we have aren't particularly effective and don't do the trick alone.

We have already seen the true pandemic numbers. They are there for everybody to see and study.
And endemic doesn't mean what you seem to think it means: 'as relatively harmless as the flu'.
SARS-CoV-2 has already become endemic, and that is nothing to celebrate.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

... the virus had mutated to a form that was unstoppable.

Twitter thread:

Quote:

The Director of the US CDC caused waves a few days ago by saying "we can't stop the spread of #Covid19". Is this true? What does the data and science say?
David Steadson on Twitter, Jan 1, 2023

[The Atheist]

Cuba's data is totes legit.

Even if it were true, the idea that the methods of a totalitarian government on a closed island can be instituted throughout the world is plain insanity.

By the count of some people, the pandemic will never be over, when in the real world, it's now just another endemic disease. Even WHO is coming round to that: https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ic-2022-09-14/

[deaman]

How do we know a pandemic's over?

When everyone is dead.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by deaman

How do we know a pandemic's over?

When everyone is dead.

That means it's permanent, then.

It's not going away and it's not going to kill everyone.

Endemic disease.

Given the continual flattening of the number of cases, I think we're already there. In the past 4 months, the 7-day average has been in a narrow band.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[dann]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Cuba's data is totes legit.

Even if it were true, the idea that the methods of a totalitarian government on a closed island can be instituted throughout the world is plain insanity.

By the count of some people, the pandemic will never be over, when in the real world, it's now just another endemic disease. Even WHO is coming round to that: https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ic-2022-09-14/

Yes, Cuba's data is totally legit.
The Cuban numbers are true, the government isn't totalitarian, the island isn't closed, and its pandemic strategy can be instituted throughout the world:
1) Everybody needs to get vaccinated,
2) wear face masks indoors in public places.
3) and get tested often.
It requires only that vaccines are safe and effective, that the population is well-informed and trusts the health authorities and their recommendations, which, of course, also requires that those health authorities actually are reliable and to be trusted.

By the count of some people, the pandemic was never really there. According to them, it was invented by deep-state scare mongers. And some people don't understand what "endemic" means, which is why they refer to pandemic diseases as "just" endemic. Covid minimizers usually prefer to compare SARS-CoV-2 with the much less contagious and virulent flu. For some reason they shy away from mentioning malaria, also just another endemic disease, which also doesn't kill nearly as many people as Covid-19 does (see post 234).

Quote:

In 2020 there were 241 million cases of malaria worldwide resulting in an estimated 627,000 deaths.
Malaria (Wikipedia)

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

Yes, Cuba's data is totally legit.

How convenient that of all the world, a country like Cuba can be relied upon.

Originally Posted by dann

the government isn't totalitarian

Yeah, when was their last election again?

Originally Posted by dann

its pandemic strategy can be instituted throughout the world:
1) Everybody needs to get vaccinated,
2) wear face masks indoors in public places.
3) and get tested often.

Mea culpa, I see the problem - you've only recently arrived on Planet Earth.

You might like to cast your eye over some details of what happened over the past three years, where vast numbers of humans not only didn't get vaccinated, but claimed it was all a scam.

Which you actually know, yet still claim universal vaccination is possible:

Originally Posted by dann

By the count of some people, the pandemic was never really there. According to them, it was invented by deep-state scare mongers.

Originally Posted by dann

For some reason they shy away from mentioning malaria, also just another endemic disease, which also doesn't kill nearly as many people as Covid-19 does.

Yet again, you're wrong.

Malaria kills over 600,000 people a year.

In the past three months, covid deaths are 143,000, and the average daily rate is steady at 1400. Whichever maths you use, those don't come to 600,000 in one year.

I'm not even going to mention the glaringly obvious fact that the "covid death" number still includes people with covid who died in car accidents and from other causes.

No matter, facts and evidence are clearly beyond your comprehension as your idiotic comments about stopping covid show.

[dann]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

How convenient that of all the world, a country like Cuba can be relied upon.

Yeah, when was their last election again?

Why don't you look it up? It was in March 2018. The next one will the this year. Cuba had a referendum three months ago. I'm not surprised you don't know about it. I was Havana and witnessed it.

Quote:

Mea culpa, I see the problem - you've only recently arrived on Planet Earth.

You might like to cast your eye over some details of what happened over the past three years, where vast numbers of humans not only didn't get vaccinated, but claimed it was all a scam.

Which you actually know, yet still claim universal vaccination is possible:

Universal vaccination is obviously possible. All it requires is that the vaccines are there and people have reason to trust them. The latter depends very much on the reliability of their health care systems in general and the vaccines in particular. And Cubans rely on their vaccines because they have reason to do so. They are educated and informed.

At this point, it helps that the country's pandemic strategy has been extremely successful which you would know if you had spent just a few minutes of your time on Planet Earth looking it up.

That their vaccines are fairly resistant to the immunity evasion of the mutating coronavirus will probably help make Cubans eager to get themselves and their children vaccinated in the future. It certainly makes me appreciate the Soberana Plus booster shot I got in October.

Quote:

Yet again, you're wrong.

Malaria kills over 600,000 people a year.

In the past three months, covid deaths are 143,000, and the average daily rate is steady at 1400. Whichever maths you use, those don't come to 600,000 in one year.

I'm not even going to mention the glaringly obvious fact that the "covid death" number still includes people with covid who died in car accidents and from other causes.

No matter, facts and evidence are clearly beyond your comprehension as your idiotic comments about stopping covid show.

Yet again you are wrong and continue to resort to the tired old arguments of Covid woos:

Many countries just don't register C-19 deaths, which makes it necessary to distinguish between the confirmed death toll and the true death toll, the latter being an estimate: The true death toll of COVID-19 - Estimating global excess mortality

I am pretty sure that you are aware of this, but when it suits you, you don't mind resorting to numbers and statistics that you know are wrong. The most obvious example is your claim that more people die in road accidents than from Covid 19. People who spend any time at all on Planet Earth know this, and it has been pointed out to you several times, using reliable (!) numbers and statistics as in this thread less than two weeks ago.

I don't think that you resort to the usual idiotic comments because reality is beyond your comprehension. It is a very simple case of deliberate obfuscation.

As for your utterly ignorant idea that "covid deaths are 143,000, and the average daily rate is steady at 1400. Whichever maths you use, those don't come to 600,000 in one year."


Jan 11, 2022 to Jan 9, 2023:

Quote:

The actual confirmed (!) numbers: All-time cases and deaths
Total cases
665M
665.000.000
Total deaths
6,71M

And winter is coming!

So back at you!

Quote:

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

Why don't you look it up? It was in March 2018. The next one will the this year. Cuba had a referendum three months ago. I'm not surprised you don't know about it. I was Havana and witnessed it.

Oh. My. God.

Mea maxima culpa. I really thought someone from an actual democracy would realise that one-party elections are a bad joke.

Clearly, I was wrong.

Maybe you need to have someone explain to you that elections where only one party is on the ballot and other parties are illegal, does not make a democracy.

Breathtaking.

Originally Posted by dann

Universal vaccination is obviously possible.

And continuing the foray into cuckoo land...

20,000,000 children are facing starvation in Africa right now.

Hey, you feed them while you vaccinate! Knock off two problems at once. Legend.

We can't ******* feed them, but you're going to vaccinate them? I have no idea what level of delusion you'd need not to realise how ridiculous the idea is.

Originally Posted by dann

All it requires is that the vaccines are there and people have reason to trust them.

Good luck with that. After feeding the kids, vaccinating them all and asking the Taliban to please let us vaccinate them, getting people to trust the vaccine and authorities should be a cinch.

Originally Posted by dann

Many countries just don't register C-19 deaths, which makes it necessary to distinguish between the confirmed death toll and the true death toll, the latter being an estimate: The true death toll of COVID-19 - Estimating global excess mortality

Yet again, you're using numbers from early in the pandemic. They are as relevant as Mpx infections to the current state. The fact is, few people are dying, and those who are, are almost exclusively people whose toe tags had already been printed.

Early in the pandemic, the media was hell-bent on pumping the small number of deaths of the young as a scare tactic. They'd be doing the same now if there were any.

There are not.

Thankfully, you're very much a lone voice. Nobody in any position of knowledge is saying what you are.

Originally Posted by dann

Jan 11, 2022 to Jan 9, 2023:

I find it hilarious you accuse me of obfuscation then deliberately choose to use data from early 2022, which is, as above, totally invalid. That's not obfuscation so much as straight out lying about the facts.

No matter, like I said, exactly zero people give a damn about your "zero covid" fantasy. Even China had to give up. But I find it cute you're now touting an equally totalitarian state since China finally accepted the truth.

Originally Posted by dann

And winter is coming irrelevant!

FTFY

The currently waning wave in NZ - in an absolute scorching summer - was almost exactly the same size as the winter one.

[dann]

The most interesting thing about The Atheist's posts isn't what he says but what he leaves out. Sometimes he doesn't respond to a post at all, which was the case with my extremely well documented Reality Check post in this thread on Dec 30, 2022.

But then there are also posts like this one where he simply ignores major parts of an argument and leaves what appears to be mere statements, which he then treats as if that's all they are. I will highlight what The Atheist has left out:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

Why don't you look it up? It was in March 2018. The next one will the this year. Cuba had a referendum three months ago. I'm not surprised you don't know about it. I was Havana and witnessed it.

Oh. My. God.
Mea maxima culpa. I really thought someone from an actual democracy would realise that one-party elections are a bad joke.
Clearly, I was wrong.
Maybe you need to have someone explain to you that elections where only one party is on the ballot and other parties are illegal, does not make a democracy.
Breathtaking.

I am not at all surprised that The Atheist knows nothing about Cuban elections. Not many people do, and they have been largely ignored by Western media in recent years because there is nothing to write home about. No armed thugs trying to intimidate voters, no stop-the-steal insurrectionists trying to overthrow the election results, no candidates rallying for money, no cult of personality to make the whole thing really exciting. And the Cuban electoral system has even made it impossible for billionaires to buy elections, parties and candidates, so why write about it at all? If billionaires can't buy candidates and parties and thus legislation, it can't be a democracy in our sense of the word, right? By the way, candidates at Cuban elections aren't party candidates, but who cares about stuff like that?

Not even the recent referendum, which made it legal for same-sex couples to marry and raise children, was worth mentioning even though U.S. Evangelicals did what they could to secure their preferred Evangelical outcome but failed. But that is already the theme of another thread of this forum, so there's no need to derail a thread about when the pandemic's over. Evangelical Homophobia in Cuba

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

Universal vaccination is obviously possible.

And continuing the foray into cuckoo land...
20,000,000 children are facing starvation in Africa right now.
Hey, you feed them while you vaccinate! Knock off two problems at once. Legend.
We can't ******* feed them, but you're going to vaccinate them? I have no idea what level of delusion you'd need not to realise how ridiculous the idea is.

Feeding starving children while you vaccinate them would be nice. But since The Atheist can't imagine and has no interest in doing both, he thinks it is the perfect argument against worldwide universal vaccinations even though the allegedly ridiculous idea of universal vaccination has already been turned into reality in the case of small pox: In 1980, the World Health Assembly declared smallpox eradicated (CDC)
So much for the real world.
But The Atheist prefers to take the step from Covid minimization to universal-vaccination denialism. Not a giant leap, actually.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

All it requires is that the vaccines are there and people have reason to trust them.


The latter depends very much on the reliability of their health care systems in general and the vaccines in particular. And Cubans rely on their vaccines because they have reason to do so. They are educated and informed.

At this point, it helps that the country's pandemic strategy has been extremely successful which you would know if you had spent just a few minutes of your time on Planet Earth looking it up.

That their vaccines are fairly resistant to the immunity evasion of the mutating coronavirus will probably help make Cubans eager to get themselves and their children vaccinated in the future. It certainly makes me appreciate the Soberana Plus booster shot I got in October.

Quote:

The Atheist quote

Yet again you are wrong and continue to resort to the tired old arguments of Covid woos:

Good luck with that. After feeding the kids, vaccinating them all and asking the Taliban to please let us vaccinate them, getting people to trust the vaccine and authorities should be a cinch.

By leaving out my argument (with documentation) about how a piss poor country like Cuba has managed to vaccinate everybody, including children 2+, and thus virtually stopped people from dying of (or 'with') Covid-19, he pretends that I am an idealist who just doesn't know about the ways of the real world, which he, the pretend realist, has to teach me about.

By the way, when he mentions the Taliban, he is probably ignorant of the ways of the actual world and why the Taliban might be unwilling to "let us (!) vaccinate them" and their children:

Quote:

... the CIA employed a Pakistani doctor, Shakil Afridi, to organize a hepatitis B vaccination program. The idea was to vaccinate the children living in the compound, then test the DNA on the used syringes to see if they were related to bin Laden.
How The CIA's Hunt For Bin Laden Impacted Public Health Campaigns In Pakistan (NPR, Sep 6, 2021)

The Taliban have every reason to distrust "us". I do, too.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

Many countries just don't register C-19 deaths, which makes it necessary to distinguish between the confirmed death toll and the true death toll, the latter being an estimate: The true death toll of COVID-19 - Estimating global excess mortality
I am pretty sure that you are aware of this, but when it suits you, you don't mind resorting to numbers and statistics that you know are wrong. The most obvious example is your claim that more people die in road accidents than from Covid 19. People who spend any time at all on Planet Earth know this, and it has been pointed out to you several times, using reliable (!) numbers and statistics as in this thread less than two weeks ago.

I don't think that you resort to the usual idiotic comments because reality is beyond your comprehension. It is a very simple case of deliberate obfuscation.

As for your utterly ignorant idea that "covid deaths are 143,000, and the average daily rate is steady at 1400. Whichever maths you use, those don't come to 600,000 in one year."

Yet again, you're using numbers from early in the pandemic. They are as relevant as Mpx infections to the current state. The fact is, few people are dying, and those who are, are almost exclusively people whose toe tags had already been printed.
Early in the pandemic, the media was hell-bent on pumping the small number of deaths of the young as a scare tactic. They'd be doing the same now if there were any.
There are not.
Thankfully, you're very much a lone voice. Nobody in any position of knowledge is saying what you are.

Only a New Zealander could come up with the idea that 2022 is "early in the pandemic," since it didn't really take off in NZ till February of that year.

For most of the rest of the world, the pandemic started two years earlier, so welcome to the real world, New Zealand. It is not a pleasant place, so I can see why some people might prefer to stay in denial of pandemic reality.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

Jan 11, 2022 to Jan 9, 2023:

Quote:

The actual confirmed (!) numbers: All-time cases and deaths
Total cases
665M
665.000.000
Total deaths
6,71M

I find it hilarious you accuse me of obfuscation then deliberately choose to use data from early 2022, which is, as above, totally invalid. That's not obfuscation so much as straight out lying about the facts.

No matter, like I said, exactly zero people give a damn about your "zero covid" fantasy. Even China had to give up. But I find it cute you're now touting an equally totalitarian state since China finally accepted the truth.

As mentioned above, I understand how it was possible for some New Zealanders to remain ignorant of the reality of the pandemic in the rest of the world because they were blissfully isolated from it for the first couple of years, but the fact is that the number of registered, confirmed deaths is a far cry from the real (the dark) number. That The Atheist doesn't want to acknowledge this and prefers to move the goal posts: 'people died, but they were old!!', "people whose toe tags had already been printed," 'and frail and old lives don't matter'.

Quote:

We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions.
The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (Nature, Dec 14, 2022)

And that was "as of 31 December 2021" ...

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Originally Posted by dann

And winter is coming irrelevant!

FTFY

The currently waning wave in NZ - in an absolute scorching summer - was [???] almost exactly the same size as the winter one.

The Atheist actually seems to think that it is a good sign that the current wave in New Zealand is "almost the exact same size as the winter one."
Having lived through two and a half pandemic winters at this point, people in the Northern Hemisphere, who didn't benefit from New Zealand's ZeroCovid policy, know how very relevant seasonal changes are to the the spreading of an airborne virus.
Wishful thinking won't change the fact, and NZ winter could come early this year:

Quote:

Earlier Monday, University of Auckland associate professor Dr Siouxsie Wiles said there was concern over XBB.1.5's mutations which were "better able to infect and evade immunity from vaccines".
"Often by the time it is identified in a country, it moves."
But New Zealand had tools to reduce the impact of the new strain, Wiles said. And her advice was simple.
"I would be advising people to wear masks on public transport and planes, malls, supermarkets, wherever you are around people."
Covid-19: XBB.1.5 variant detected in New Zealand (RNZ, Jan 9, 2023)

As for the allegedly "currently waning wave in NZ," the curve may not be as steep as it was this (NZ) winter, but waning?!

[dann]

Quote:

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Wednesday officially renewed the ongoing public health emergency for the Covid-19 pandemic amid concerns over a more transmissible viral mutation and broad pandemic fatigue.
Joe Biden extends Covid-19 public health emergency (PrensaLatina, Jan 11, 2023)

But rest assured! It's probably just Cuban propaganda.
Wait! No, it isn't!
Biden administration renews Covid-19 public health emergency (CNN, Jan 11, 2023)

[dann]

Quote:

While the world is in a better position than it was during the peak of the Omicron transmission one year ago, more than 170 000 COVID-19-related deaths have been reported globally within the last eight weeks. In addition, surveillance and genetic sequencing have declined globally, making it more difficult to track known variants and detect new ones. Health systems are currently struggling with COVID-19 and caring for patients with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), health workforce shortages, and fatigued health workers. Vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics have been and remain critical in preventing severe disease, saving lives and taking the pressure off health systems and health workers globally. Yet, the COVID-19 response remains hobbled in too many countries unable to provide these tools to the populations most in need, older people and health workers.
(...)
The recent rapid risk assessment continues to characterize the global risk of COVID-19 to human health and its ongoing transmission as high.
(...)
The WHO Secretariat expressed concern about the continued virus evolution in the context of unchecked circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and the substantial decrease in Member States’ reporting of data related to COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, hospitalization and sequencing, and reiterated the importance of timely data sharing to guide the ongoing pandemic response.
Statement on the fourteenth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic (WHO, Jan 30, 2023)

As for comparisons with the flu, new variants, the use of PPE, vaccine hesitancy, the spread of misinformation, and long-term sequelae such as cardiovascular and metabolic disease:

Quote:

Committee Members expressed concern about the ongoing risk posed by COVID-19, with a still high number of deaths compared to other respiratory infectious diseases, the insufficient vaccine uptake in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in the highest-risk groups globally, and the uncertainty associated with emerging variants. They recognized that pandemic fatigue and reduced public perception of risk have led to drastically reduced use of public health and social measures, such as masks and social distancing. Vaccine hesitancy and the continuing spread of misinformation continue to be extra hurdles to the implementation of crucial public health interventions. At the same time, the long-term systemic sequelae of post-COVID condition and the elevated risk of post-infection cardiovascular and metabolic disease will likely have serious negative on-going impact on population, and care pathways for such patients are limited or not available in many countries.

I would have loved to hear how many cases they found in Davos, if any, but I don't know where to look for that information or if it has even been made public, which is disappointing, considering that they were "setting an example for the rest of the world," and measures were in place to make sure that it didn't turn into a super-spreader event. (Do you remember a time when super-spreader events were still reported and weren't something people in the Western world were just supposed to learn to live with?)

[8enotto]

The general idea is that once the initial surge settled out it would still be among us but more as just another sickness. We will slowly evolve to survive it better as CV evolves to survive itself.

We are still in early days of the process and we should believe it is still a killer to deal with.

But going to full lockdown again shouldn't be required anymore.

[Rolfe]

It takes something like 30 generations for a species to evolve resistance to a severe pathogen, and that's a severe pathogen that kills a lot of individuals. It seems to me unlikely that covid is killing or otherwise giving a ticket to a Darwin Award to a sufficient number of people before they have reproduced for it to exert any meaningful evolutionary pressure at all.

It's more likely to impact on both length and quality of life, possibly quite severely, but leave reproductive capacity very little altered. So no evolving a race of supermen who don't catch it.

[dann]

Yes, unlike the Spanish flu, Covid-19 rarely kills people before they have reproduced. It's a weird way of taking comfort in evolution, by the way. Paraphrasing it: 'When enough people have died, 'we', i.e. the descendants of those of us who weren't killed by SARS-CoV-2, will have adapted and thus 'learned to live' with it!' It's funny how people always assume that they themselves are in the 'we' segment of the population.

Originally Posted by 8enotto

We are still in early days of the process and we should believe it is still a killer to deal with.

Yes, we are. A lot of people aren't. For them, it's all over.

Quote:

But going to full lockdown again shouldn't be required anymore.

There's the Davos solution. Also on Twitter: #DavosStandard.

[Rolfe]

I went to the opera this evening. In an FFP3 mask. I'm really quite used to it. It's just so annoying to realise that if only a lot more people did that (OK, an FFP2 like my friend was wearing will do) and they tried to fix the ventilation/air quality in public indoor venues, the prevalence would plummet.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

It takes something like 30 generations for a species to evolve resistance to a severe pathogen...

Lucky science gives us vaccines, so we don't need to wait 30 generations.

If you were reading the covid thread you'd have seen this: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...007-5/fulltext

[dann]

Science doesn't 'give' 'us' anything. The vaccine has to be paid for, which I assume is the reason why so many Western countries don't vaccinate children. (In Denmark, at this point, that would be children under 50!) And children need to be vaccinated, too, both for their own sake and for the sake of limiting virus transmission.

Covid-19 in children:

Quote:

According to the study’s lead author Seth Flaxman, though it is weird for children and teens to die, it was found Covid-19 is the leading underlying cause of infectious disease deaths in this age group.
(...)
Less than 10% of eligible American children have received their updated booster vaccination, and over 90% of American children under the age of five are not fully vaccinated.
Covid-19 among leading causes of death for children in the US (PrensaLatina, Jan 30, 2023)

Two countries that I know of are currently vaccinating young children: Cuba and Singapore. And it shows because the 'gift' from science in the case of SARS-CoV-2 is not nearly as effective as, for instance, the MMR vaccines:
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people since Jan 1, 2022, in Cuba, Singapore, USA and New Zealand.
In Cuba and Singapore, people also have confidence in the health authorities in general and in the Covid-19 vaccines in particular.

In addition to vaccinations, Cuba and Singapore mask up, which also prevents children from getting infected.
But for some reason, Western Covid-19 trivializers can't be bothered to consider masking up and demanding (Davos!) measures like frequent testing and ventilation/air filtration in addition to vaxxing.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I went to the opera this evening. In an FFP3 mask. I'm really quite used to it. It's just so annoying to realise that if only a lot more people did that (OK, an FFP2 like my friend was wearing will do) and they tried to fix the ventilation/air quality in public indoor venues, the prevalence would plummet.

Cuba has the benefit of free ventilation in most places. When I was in Cuba in Sep-Oct 2022, I noticed that old posters had hand-washing as the first measure against transmission of the virus. New posters mentioned airborne transmission as the most important thing to prevent.

Unlike Cuba, Singapore with its many air-conditioned office buildings and a population density of 8,358 per km² can't rely on 'natural ventilation':

Quote:

COVID-19 is mainly transmitted by close contact and respiratory droplets which are released when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or sings. It can also be spread through virus aerosols in the air under certain settings, such as enclosed environments which are poorly ventilated. Hence, it is critical to mitigate this risk by improving ventilation and air quality in indoor environments.
Guidance on Improving Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality in Buildings amid the COVID-19 situation (National Environment Agency)

Imagine living in countries that understand and adhere to actual science during a pandemic!

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Lucky science gives us vaccines, so we don't need to wait 30 generations.

If you were reading the covid thread you'd have seen this: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...007-5/fulltext

Vaccines confer protection, they don't contribute to evolving resistance at a genetic level. I was trying to point out how bloody stupid the premise that humanity would evolve to be resistant to covid in a reasonable time period (or probably ever at all) actually is.

[Puppycow]

The WHO considered whether it was time to declare the pandemic over, but decided against it.

WHO keeps COVID emergency in place as deaths rise globally

Quote:

The World Health Organization decided on Monday against declaring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic emergency, as deaths have started rising again since China dismantled its strict "zero-COVID" policy in December.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus determined that the ongoing pandemic "continues to constitute a public health emergency of international concern," in line with the recommendations of a panel of health experts, the organization said in a statement.

Apparently deaths are in fact on the rise again (even excluding China).

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

The WHO considered whether it was time to declare the pandemic over, but decided against it.

WHO keeps COVID emergency in place as deaths rise globally



Apparently deaths are in fact on the rise again (even excluding China).

That's interesting.

Thanks to everyone posting here! Your substantial posts help summarize in one place current developments specifically about the thread topic.

Afraid the burnout thing has got to me as well. I've given up looking up the conflicting reports all over, now that the urgency has eased off somewhat, where earlier I'd try to fully keep abreast of all of what's happening. This thread is the one place I still regularly look up for pandemic related developments ---- regularly, as opposed to random things happening to catch my eye.

But I continue to do the whole masks and distancing and sanitizing thing, regardless of what others around me are doing. And I'll continue to do that, until the thing's officially been relegated to the past tense. I'm damned if I give in to Covid basis other people's stupidity, and the peer pressure thing.

[mgidm86]

About FFP3:

https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-...-care/faq-003/

Just FYI if it isn't fit properly it won't really help much. My SIL is a nurse and she told me how they have to test N95s (she was using those at the time I think) to make sure they are fit properly.

I'm no expert. I don't go into theaters or bars or anywhere I don't have to, but I never liked crowds anyways. Now, much less.

[dann]

And much like with full-face snorkel masks, a beard (or even stubble) ruins the effect.
But I assume that your sister doesn't have that problem ...

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

March 25, 2022:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

Quote:

...'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that. ...

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, March 25 to Dec 27:
Mar 25, 2022: 273
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331

Follow up:
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331
Feb 6, 2023: 2,502
So in 41 days, 171 deaths, i.e. the death toll is still considerably higher than "~500 a year" even though Omicron was supposed "to be much lower than that."
And in New Zealand, autumn is coming ...

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by mgidm86

About FFP3:

https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-...-care/faq-003/

Just FYI if it isn't fit properly it won't really help much. My SIL is a nurse and she told me how they have to test N95s (she was using those at the time I think) to make sure they are fit properly.

I'm no expert. I don't go into theaters or bars or anywhere I don't have to, but I never liked crowds anyways. Now, much less.

That's not true though. Even an FFP3 that doesn't fit perfectly is immeasurably better than nothing at all, and still very much better than a cloth or paper mask.

I had to go through the whole face-fit rigmarole myself with the FFP3 masks at work. This is because to get maximum protection you need to know how to fit it properly, also the testing proves that it is possible to get a perfect fit of that particular mask type to your face. (It was envisaged at work that I might have to work with my face very close to carcasses of birds that might have died from bird flu.)

Nevertheless it's not rocket science. Most masks will fit most people, and if you just follow the instructions you have a good chance of getting a reasonable fit and a reasonable seal. Tighten the head straps as tight as is comfortable, and mould the edges of the mask to your face as best you can, especially round the bridge of the nose, where there is an aluminium strip to make this easier. Observe that the mask huffs in and out when you breathe, that you don't feel streams of air passing between the sides of the mask and your face, realise that your glasses are not steaming up, job done.

There's a huge myth going around, propagated by people who are aware of the face-fit testing but don't really understand it, to the effect that the masks are useless if you haven't had that test. Nonsense. If you haven't had the test you still have a perfectly good chance of getting a seal if you just follow the instructions sensibly, and even if the seal isn't 100% perfect it's still massively better than nothing at all.

ETA: Dann is right about beards, and in fact a neighbour of mine who is in the police was slightly miffed that he had to shave his beard to pass a face-fit test. However, even there, fitting the mask as best you can despite the beard is again massively better than nothing.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

That's not true though. Even an FFP3 that doesn't fit perfectly is immeasurably better than nothing at all, and still very much better than a cloth or paper mask.
(...)
ETA: Dann is right about beards, and in fact a neighbour of mine who is in the police was slightly miffed that he had to shave his beard to pass a face-fit test. However, even there, fitting the mask as best you can despite the beard is again massively better than nothing.

Even cloth and paper masks are better than nothing. Also when worn under the nose. It would be stupid to do so and this is not an argument for doing it, but even cloth and paper masks worn under the nose will at least limit the amount of droplets when talking and coughing. I assume that this is the reason why paper masks are called surgical masks and used by hospital personnel when performing surgery.*

ETA: *"although not all face masks are regulated as surgical masks."
N95 Respirators, Surgical Masks, Face Masks, and Barrier Face Coverings (FDA)

[Rolfe]

Sure, something is always better than nothing. But since covid is mainly spread by aerosol, a mask that has big gaps round the side is not going to be good protection. Neither is one that doesn't filter inspired air sufficiently. A mask over the mouth only might make an infected person less dangerous to someone in their close vicnity, but I suspect that's about all.

With a virus this contagious, and this dangerous, choosing something that only cuts your risk of catching it by maybe 10-20% isn't really the best move. FFP3 masks almost negate the chance of infection, and the (accurate) observation that they won't be quite as effective if the face-fit isn't perfect should not be blown up into an assertion that they're not worth wearing if you haven't had a face-fit test.

All my face-fit test did was show that it was possible to fit that mask to my particular face and get a perfect seal, and train me how to put one on so as to achieve that seal. It's not magic. Assuming your face isn't a weird shape and you can follow simple common-sense instructions, anyone should be able to fit one. And even if the seal isn't perfect, it's still likely to filter >90% of the inspired air, and that is well worth having.

[dann]

Is it over yet?

Quote:

Although much is now known about this coronavirus, many questions remain, especially as the virus continues to evolve and infect people on a large scale. There were more than 280,000 new coronavirus cases diagnosed in the last week, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is almost certainly an undercount, given the many home tests not included as part of the official tally.
Could you still have Covid-19 if you have symptoms but test negative? A medical analyst weighs in (CNN, Feb 8, 2023)

As expected, the death toll has also been rising this winter - Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths - but not as much as in previous pandemic winters, 20-21 and 21-22.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths Up from 1.08 to 1.11 million, Dec 1, 2022, to Feb 7, 2023.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Sure, something is always better than nothing. But since covid is mainly spread by aerosol, a mask that has big gaps round the side is not going to be good protection. Neither is one that doesn't filter inspired air sufficiently. A mask over the mouth only might make an infected person less dangerous to someone in their close vicnity, but I suspect that's about all.

With a virus this contagious, and this dangerous, choosing something that only cuts your risk of catching it by maybe 10-20% isn't really the best move. FFP3 masks almost negate the chance of infection, and the (accurate) observation that they won't be quite as effective if the face-fit isn't perfect should not be blown up into an assertion that they're not worth wearing if you haven't had a face-fit test.

All my face-fit test did was show that it was possible to fit that mask to my particular face and get a perfect seal, and train me how to put one on so as to achieve that seal. It's not magic. Assuming your face isn't a weird shape and you can follow simple common-sense instructions, anyone should be able to fit one. And even if the seal isn't perfect, it's still likely to filter >90% of the inspired air, and that is well worth having.

Steven Novella summarizes what is known at this point about masking up (and mask mandates) against Covid-19:

Quote:

if we look at the totality of the evidence (not just these trials) the best current conclusions are:
Properly wearing face masks when in public during high risk of spread reduces the risk of spread of respiratory viruses in general and COVID specifically.
During a pandemic of a respiratory virus, mask mandates are an effective public health measure.
N95 masks likely offer the best protection, but need to be worn over the mouth and nose to be effective, and need to be worn continuously when in public (not just in targeted situations).
Masks Revisited (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 15, 2023)

[dann]

Excellent Twitter thread about face masks to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2
(long thread; 95 tweets!)

Quote:

New mask thread. Addresses
- Why so much controversy?
- Airborne transmission
- RCTs of masks - strengths/weaknesses, community, healthcare settings
- Meta-analyses - gold standard or lazy lumping?
- Non-RCT evidence - why is it needed, what does it show?
- AOB
1.
Trisha Greenhalgh (on Twitter, Feb 26, 2023)

Trisha Greenhalgh is Professor of Primary Health Care, Oxford. Independent SAGE.

Since we discussed this recently, from the same Twitter thread:

Quote:

17.AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION
Whilst respirators protect best, ANY mask is better than none. Efficiency at reducing transmission of an artificial respiratory aerosol:
N95 respirator 99%
Medical mask 59%
Bandana (single) 47% (double) 60%
Face shield 2%
Efficacy of face masks, neck gaiters and face shields for reducing the expulsion of simulated cough-generated aerosols
Trisha Greenhalgh (on Twitter, Feb 26, 2023)

[dann]

Thomas Pueyo chips in.

[The Atheist]

Covid now causes fewer deaths than Parkinson's disease, and slightly more than drowning.

Less than a third as many as HIV, slightly more than a third of suicides.

(less than a quarter of car crash deaths)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/a...eaths-by-cause

I wonder what the numbers need to be to declare it over?

[dann]

I don't understand why The Atheist never checks out New Zealand's numbers, before he makes these nonsensical claims! Covid minimizers gonna minimize, but I don't understand what he hopes to get out of this.

Covid-19 deaths in New Zealand 2023, so far: 211
Road deaths in New Zealand 2023, so far: 56

"(Less than a quarter of car crash deaths)"
Yeah, right!

I'm getting bored with having to fact check for The Atheist all the time.
Would somebody like to take over the job?!

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

I don't understand why The Atheist never checks out New Zealand's numbers, before he makes these nonsensical claims!

Your biases are clouding your ability to read what's written yet again.

I showed the world numbers, because NZ's numbers are irrelevant, and if you'd bothered to look, you'd see that I'm 100% correct. I even included the links to the data, but you insist on trying to make arguments about claims not made.

You're clearly unaware that is a logical fallacy known as a strawman, but please keep going, it's hilarious.

[dann]

The Atheist is using the same tired old trick as several times before. He is well aware that the number of Covid-19 deaths mentioned in his link is much lower than the actual number of Covid-19 deaths. Unlike road deaths, Covid-19 deaths won't be registered as such in many parts of the world, which is what makes statistics from the parts of the world where they are registered fairly reliably, e.g. New Zealand, relevant unlike his misleading and thus irrelevant Worldometers numbers.

The last time somebody exhibited a similar blatant disregard for reality was probably when Clutch Cargo day after day posted Sweden's newly reported Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours as 0.

14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 (WHO, May 5, 2022)

Breaking news:

Quote:

CDC Death Certificate Guidance Now Includes Long COVID
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has expanded in its guidance for certifying deaths due to the coronavirus to include complications of long COVID. “Emerging evidence suggests that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, can have lasting effects on nearly every organ and organ system of the body weeks, months, and potentially years after infection,” the new guidance says.California Healthline Daily Edition (Feb 28, 2023)

Until now, these deaths weren't registered as Covid-19 deaths, and I doubt that they will be in most of the world.

But minimizers no doubt still gonna minimize.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

The Atheist is using the same tired old trick as several times before.

Of being completely misrepresented? Quite right.

Good to see you still unable to admit to being wrong and changing the subject while still managing to post misinformation:

Originally Posted by dann

14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021

What happened in 2020-21 is completely irrelevant to what's happening now, but it does emphasise how desperate you are.

You clearly haven't noticed, but nobody even thinks about covid in 2023, and if you think your lone voice in the vast wilderness will encourage people to continue panicking, then you're severely deluded. Even your beloved New Zealand has zero covid rules. A few recommendations, but no rules.

Originally Posted by dann

But minimizers no doubt still gonna minimize.

What you, in your panicked state, refer to as "minimising" is actually reality.

Covid kills the very old & already very sick, plus a tiny number of other people.

As do lots of things.

Move on.

(And just so there's no misconception, or further misprepresentation of my position, I'm well aware it's not going away, it will continue to kill people, and must continue to be monitored and managed by WHO, as it does with HIV, ebola, TB and a plethora of other diseases.)

[theprestige]

I dunno about anyone else, but "excess deaths" and "associated with" sound like weasel words to me.

[dann]

They may sound like weasel words to you, but it's really very simple: A Covid-19 death used to be somebody dying within 30 days of having been diagnosed with the infection. However, nowadays we know that long haulers may die from the sequelae months or years later because the infection damaged their organs. In that case, the lung/heart/kidney/whatever damage that kills them will, if due to the infection, is now to be registered as having been caused by the SARS-CoV-2 infection. It's as simple as that.
Some people even worry unnecessarily because they think that somebody killed in a traffic accident while having C-19 may be registered as a C-19 death, and who would want to die like that, right?!

If you still don't get it, there's a cure for that at this point of the pandemic. A psychatrist recently wrote an article in Science-Based Medicine about the symptoms exhibited by coronaphobiaphobics and the cure:

Quote:

Are you a doctor who has written multiple articles saying “now is the time to stop living in fear?” Did you say cautious people were not “truly not actually living right now“, months before anyone had been vaccinated? Are you engulfed with white hot rage by the handful of people who still wear masks in crowds? Have you relentlessly mocked them on your podcasts and Twitter feed? Have you called them “idiots“, “STUPID“, a “bunch of fools” “total morons“ “delusional” and “off their rocker”? Did you mercilessly [url]shame anyone who wanted a booster just weeks before the Omicron variant ripped through the population? Do you actively encourage strangers, whose lives you know nothing about, to repeatedly expose themselves to a new, mutating virus with unknown long-term consequences? Do people who are still trying to avoid SARS-CoV-2 remind you the pandemic didn’t end in 2021 as you said it would? Have you coined new terms to stigmatize anyone who doesn’t want to repeatedly get sick with COVID for the rest of their lives?

If so, you may have coronaphobiaphobia, an inexplicable fear of and inappropriate obsession with total strangers who want to avoid COVID.
Do You Have Coronaphobiaphobia? Ask Your Doctor if Notmybizumab is Right for You. (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 24, 2023)

The desperation of coronaphobiaphobics shows, and it's tragic to behold. Some of them even get anxiety attacks if they are near a vaccinated person because they fear that they may get killed by shedding! There is really no reason why they should continue to suffer from this panic when the cure is so simple.