2024 Election Thread

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

And how about McConnell not retiring?? His staff covers up for his brain damage by whisking him away.

And I'm not convinced Trump isn't slipping away with senility plus his mental illness plus the stress he's under. The news media's narratives are influencing people's perceptions. Just wait until Trump blows his top over being outed as a dishonest crook in his NY case.

It's a human trait, not a politically influenced trait.

Absolutely. And it's working not just on Republicans, but with those who should
be able to recognize the GOP's years long tactic of claiming Biden is senile by using manipulated videos and repetition of lies.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by ZiprHead

When and where did this "word" go out, and what did the "word" say?

The word has been in effect since Biden announced he's running again, and the word is "If you run against him, you are dead to us."

Quote:

Generic candidates have no baggage and no platform or record to critique. They're literally a figment of the imagination so they can have any atributes that can be imagined. The one thing they cannot do is actually run in the election.

IOW there's no such thing as a generic candidate, they all have their strengths and weaknesses.

Quote:

And who the hell is Phil Murphy???

First two-term Democratic governor in New Jersey in 50 years. As a reminder I was replying to this from Puppycow:

Quote:

A Democratic governor, or senator, under the age of 70 and with no major disqualifying problems. Anyone??

[Tero]

I think the air is coming out of the Trump balloon. They are all little arrows, so this will take a half a year.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Election Day! New Poll Has Biden Up 48-44 Over Trump, GOP's Ongoing Betrayal

Quote:

A reminder - 2023 has been a very good year for Democrats. We’ve been winning elections across the country, outperforming expectations and our 2020 vote, taking away real estate from them even in red areas. Our party is strong, our grassroots the strongest it’s ever been, and as we head into 2024 in every way possible I would much rather be us than them...

New Natl Poll Has Biden Up 4, 48-44, More Good News from NYT Poll, Lots of Work Ahead of US - Yesterday, I did a comprehensive look at electoral data that suggests Joe Biden and the Democrats are in far better shape than the NYT polls found this past weekend. Today, of course, we get a large sample national poll (over 2,000 interviews) which finds Biden beating Trump outside of the margin of error, 48-44, 4 points. This morning I went to 538 and found that there were 7 (yes 7!!!!) national polls released just last week showing Biden tied or ahead, not trailing. So let’s declare the freak out over, but acknowledge, together, that we are not where we want to be and have a lot of work ahead of us.

[William Parcher]

CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/polit...-biden-matchup

[Stacyhs]

Oh,no! Which poll to believe a year out?

[Dr.Sid]

Well, this or that, Trump is still in it, no question about it. His court cases are not hurting him in the slightest.

[ZiprHead]

Originally Posted by Brainster

The word has been in effect since Biden announced he's running again, and the word is "If you run against him, you are dead to us."

Can you quote where this is stated?

Originally Posted by Brainster

IOW there's no such thing as a generic candidate, they all have their strengths and weaknesses.



First two-term Democratic governor in New Jersey in 50 years. As a reminder I was replying to this from Puppycow:

Fine.. He's a pol no one has ever heard of. A perfect candidate.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Well, this or that, Trump is still in it, no question about it. His court cases are not hurting him in the slightest.

That's the point!

Can you imagine how far anyone but Biden would be faring in the face of the atrocious pile of excrement? Trump was a joke candidate prior to 2016 - for ****'s sake, even The Simpsons used him as a joke candidate, because no matter what, he could never be president.

If he'd have come up against a strong, charismatic Democrat like Obama or Clinton he would barely have made double figures, and right now, with multiple federal charges being pursued against him, he's deep in the fight, and absolutely a potential winner.

Whether or not Biden pulls through and beats Trump is one thing, but it's a cast iron certainty that Trump is one heartbeat from the presidency, because Kamala Harris wouldn't beat Timothy McVeigh. I must try to figure out why that is at some stage - I haven't seen any horns on her.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Oh,no! Which poll to believe a year out?

Oh No! Should we believe the source that looked at multiple polls and averaged them or just the two: one from CNN and one from the NYT, that are sensational.

[Mike!]

Well, it's not a poll, but Trump endorsed republican Kentucky Governor hopeful, Daniel Cameron, just got his ass handed to him by current democrat Governor Andy Beshear, by a pretty healthy margin tonight. Did I mention this was Kentucky?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Well, this or that, Trump is still in it, no question about it. His court cases are not hurting him in the slightest.

"Not in the slightest"? Can you back that up or did you spitball it? Are you basing it on one variable or have you actually thought it through? Have you taken into account there's a delay between court case progress and poll data collection?

Sir, I find your hyperbole unsupportable.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

"Not in the slightest"? Can you back that up or did you spitball it? Are you basing it on one variable or have you actually thought it through? Have you taken into account there's a delay between court case progress and poll data collection?

Sir, I find your hyperbole unsupportable.

How much delay do you think is there ? How much effect do you think we should expect ?

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Mike!

Well, it's not a poll, but Trump endorsed republican Kentucky Governor hopeful, Daniel Cameron, just got his ass handed to him by current democrat Governor Andy Beshear, by a pretty healthy margin tonight. Did I mention this was Kentucky?

Great example.

Imagine if Andy Beshear was our nominee.

Democrat Andy Beshear wins reelection in Kentucky governor’s race

Quote:

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear was projected to win reelection in Kentucky, according to Decision Desk HQ, fending off a challenge from his former President Trump-backed Republican challenger.

And Kentucky is a very red state. 8th reddest in the country and not considered a swing state for presidential elections (in recent times anyway).

2023 election results live updates: Democrat Beshear wins reelection in Kentucky, Issue 1 another victory for abortion rights in Ohio

[Puppycow]

I wonder if there ought to be a separate 2023 Election Thread, but since 2024 is still a year off I figure there's time to discuss it right here.

Major results so far:

Ohio voted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, a big win for Democrats and Pro-Choice people.

Ohio also voted to legalize marijuana.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. (ETA: Trump had endorsed his opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron and encouraged Kentuckians to vote for Cameron on Truth Social. In that sense he was a sort of proxy for Trump.)

In Virginia, Democrats appear to have won a majority in the state senate and are leading in the state house of delegates. Also, the first openly transgender state senator was elected.

Yahoo News live blog of results

[Mike!]

A scenario I've pondered, and honestly, wouldn't hate seeing, would be Trump somehow winning the presidency, while the house AND senate both go heavily democrat, immediately rendering Trump not only powerless, but facing certain impeachment as well.

[Puppycow]

Democrats do have another option:

Dean Phillips

Like me, you've probably never heard of him, but he is a three-term congressman, which makes him a viable candidate without Democratic Governors or Senators in the race.

Quote:

Dean Phillips, a three-term congressman and former CEO, has been critical of Joe Biden’s bid for reelection and has raised concerns about the president’s age and his lackluster approval ratings. When asked about his plans in August, Phillips said "My real call to action right now is not about me. The call to action is to ask the president to pass the torch." Phillips has already missed the filing deadline to participate in the Nevada Democratic Primary, one of the first nominating contests of 2024.

He has a fairly unremarkable list of positions. But he's absolutely right about the president's age.

If ever there was a "generic Democrat" he seems to fit the bill. He's 54, looks presidential enough. From Minnesota.

Quote:

Campaign positions

• “Enhance public safety” through increased funding for police departments and first responders “for up-to-date training practices and access to necessary equipment, and for mental health services for community members and first responders alike.” [Source]
  
• “Supports comprehensive immigration reform, including enhanced border security, a pathway to citizenship for those here now, and a streamlined process for those seeking to enter the country legally.” [Source]
  
• “Believes patients—not politicians—should have the freedom to make personal decisions about their own health, including when it comes to reproductive health.” [Source]

He's probably not going to excite far lefties, but for moderates like myself he seems more than adequate.

WE NEED AN ALTERNATIVE TO BIDEN!!! Dean Phillips is an alternative. He's not a wacky anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist nor a woo-woo new age self help guru, but a posterboard standard-issue generic politician from the Midwest. Perfect.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

The numbers don't quite add up as Dobbs v Jackson was a 6-3 vote. Unless you are making the case that Roberts would've voted the other way had their been a 4th liberal justice on the court. That seems unlikely to me.

It might have been, but even if not, a 4th liberal justice would mean we are only 1 justice away from regaining the court instead of two. It could mean decades or more, since Republicans (if they are smarter than RBG) can time their retirements strategically to coincide with Republican control of the branches of government that will replace them.

Conceivably liberals may never regain the majority if we assume that at least once every 20 years or so that Republicans will control both the presidency and the senate.

So it isn't just Roe, it's about the long term. If Roe can be overturned, so can Dobbs, but not while Republicans control the Supreme Court.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I wonder if there ought to be a separate 2023 Election Thread, but since 2024 is still a year off I figure there's time to discuss it right here.

Major results so far:

Ohio voted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, a big win for Democrats and Pro-Choice people.

Ohio also voted to legalize marijuana.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. (ETA: Trump had endorsed his opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron and encouraged Kentuckians to vote for Cameron on Truth Social. In that sense he was a sort of proxy for Trump.)

In Virginia, Democrats appear to have won a majority in the state senate and are leading in the state house of delegates. Also, the first openly transgender state senator was elected.

Yahoo News live blog of results

Thanks for the good news!

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I wonder if there ought to be a separate 2023 Election Thread, but since 2024 is still a year off I figure there's time to discuss it right here.

Major results so far:

Ohio voted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, a big win for Democrats and Pro-Choice people.

Ohio also voted to legalize marijuana.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. (ETA: Trump had endorsed his opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron and encouraged Kentuckians to vote for Cameron on Truth Social. In that sense he was a sort of proxy for Trump.)

In Virginia, Democrats appear to have won a majority in the state senate and are leading in the state house of delegates. Also, the first openly transgender state senator was elected.

Yahoo News live blog of results

From that link:
"Yusef Salaam, exonerated 'Central Park Five' member, wins New York City Council seat"

Back when the five were in the news, Trump put out a full page ad calling for all five of them to get the death penalty.

[The Great Zaganza]

Chances are that Trump will get more and more whiny as the trials cost him more and more time, money and nerves.
And I think not even the most hardcore Trump fans only want to hear about him complain.

[Norman Alexander]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Chances are that Trump will get more and more whiny as the trials cost him more and more time, money and nerves.
And I think not even the most hardcore Trump fans only want to hear about him complain.

The Dems are probably going to wind him up like a clockwork toy.

[Solitaire]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Democrats do have another option:

Dean Phillips

Like me, you've probably never heard of him, but he is a three-term
congressman, which makes him a viable candidate without Democratic
Governors or Senators in the race.

He has a fairly unremarkable list of positions. But he's absolutely right
about the president's age.

If ever there was a "generic Democrat" he seems to fit the bill. He's 54,
looks presidential enough. From Minnesota.

He's probably not going to excite far lefties, but for moderates like myself
he seems more than adequate.

WE NEED AN ALTERNATIVE TO BIDEN!!! Dean Phillips is an alternative.
He's not a wacky anti-vax conspiracy theorist nor a woo-woo new age
self help guru, but a poster board standard-issue generic politician from
the Midwest. Perfect.

It's way too late!

He started two weeks ago and the state deadlines start closing
in a month or two.

What you do is, in 2022 you think about running and make you up mind.
At the end of the year, then you gather a team of a couple of hundred people
getting you on the state ballots, and you announce a month or two later, say
in March or April.

On the other hand, he'll get plenty of experience in this trial run for 2028.
Really, he needs to think things through and make plans. I wasn't impressed
with his NBC interview a week ago.

[The Great Zaganza]

any candidate not called John Smith doesn't have a chance in a write-in campaign.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Mike!

A scenario I've pondered, and honestly, wouldn't hate seeing, would be Trump somehow winning the presidency, while the house AND senate both go heavily democrat, immediately rendering Trump not only powerless, but facing certain impeachment as well.

Too dangerous. Gawd knows what Trump could pull off regardless of the Constitution.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

...WE NEED AN ALTERNATIVE TO BIDEN!!! ....

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I wonder if there ought to be a separate 2023 Election Thread, but since 2024 is still a year off I figure there's time to discuss it right here.

Major results so far:

Ohio voted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, a big win for Democrats and Pro-Choice people.

Ohio also voted to legalize marijuana.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. (ETA: Trump had endorsed his opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron and encouraged Kentuckians to vote for Cameron on Truth Social. In that sense he was a sort of proxy for Trump.)

In Virginia, Democrats appear to have won a majority in the state senate and are leading in the state house of delegates. Also, the first openly transgender state senator was elected.

Yahoo News live blog of results

In any state where the elections aren't at the same levels of Enver Hoxha run Albania, Democrats won in those held in the last few days. These states were all "red" or "purple" according to the punditry. If the Biden campaign can harness the general energy at grassroots level, next year could be an absolute blowout.

[Susheel]

How about this...Democratic candidates and Democratic voters stop being complacent and thinking that the US electoral system "is the bestest in the world".

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

[Beelzebuddy]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

He's probably not going to excite far lefties, but for moderates like myself he seems more than adequate.

Moderates like yourself have Biden. He's your guy. Grandpa Joe. Make politics boring again. It's what he promised to do, it's what he was elected to do, it's what he delivered. It's what he will do again. If you want to seek an alternative, for pete's sake try to find someone with a working spine who'll actively strive to fix things for the better, not just "status quo but younger."

[Apathia]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

Yes!

Folks, please remember how how Hillary Clinton was smeared by irresponsible press and conservative design.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy

Moderates like yourself have Biden. He's your guy. Grandpa Joe. Make politics boring again. It's what he promised to do, it's what he was elected to do, it's what he delivered. It's what he will do again. If you want to seek an alternative, for pete's sake try to find someone with a working spine who'll actively strive to fix things for the better, not just "status quo but younger."

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

[johnny karate]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

How does critical thinking connect that in a meaningful way to an election that’s a year from now?

[johnny karate]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

Counterpoint: If Trump wins, the people who claimed to not want that but then spent years tearing down his opponent will have some explaining to do.

[Beelzebuddy]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

Biden can absolutely do it again, precisely because he did it before. The Democratic party is shockingly averse to new ideas no matter how pressing their need, but the flip side is they're great at fighting the last war. Biden's had a perfectly adequate presidency, his health is fine, the economy's on the rebound, the recent elections indicate that abortion rights are a HUGE issue driving voter turnout and more generally that people have wised up to the extremist GOP game.

The only reason to consider a change is in case the actuarial tables catch up to him on the campaign trail. But that's a better argument for a solid VP pick ready to take over than for losing out on all the benefits of incumbency. You want to get rid of Harris, that's fine by me.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

And critical thinking says there has been a negative reaction to his response to Israel bombing Palestine. It's a year out from the election, things will be different then and Trump is worse on this issue including his giving away intelligence secrets that likely helped Hamas.

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by Mike!

A scenario I've pondered, and honestly, wouldn't hate seeing, would be Trump somehow winning the presidency, while the house AND senate both go heavily democrat, immediately rendering Trump not only powerless, but facing certain impeachment as well.

Problem with that scenario...

Impeach Trump, and whomever was picked as his Vice President becomes president. You could end up with someone who is just as corrupt/incompetent, but because they "tweet less" look like a better choice as an incumbent when it comes to re-election time.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by William Parcher

CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/polit...-biden-matchup

Translation: "We asked somewhere between 100 and 1,000 Americans who were either old enough to still have a landline and/or stupid enough to answer a call from anonymous probably spam number and who had nothing better to do than sit through a survey, here's what they said."

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Quote:

Well, this or that, Trump is still in it, no question about it. His court cases are not hurting him in the slightest.

"Not in the slightest"? Can you back that up or did you spitball it? Are you basing it on one variable or have you actually thought it through? Have you taken into account there's a delay between court case progress and poll data collection?

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

Its a pretty fair assessment, I think, that Trumps favorability ratings have found a bottom. Its hard to imagine just what, at this point, he could do that would cause someone to no longer support him. TBF though, I have felt that was since Jan 6. It was just as obvious then, that he was a liar, a cheat, a thief, a narcissist, an idiot, a panderer, and a philanderer than it will be if he is found guilty of every single charge levied at him.