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Old 8th November 2023, 06:10 PM   #161
Tero
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I will occasionally look at 538 but started wondering why I go there. Yes, they run the average some polls but snce the polls have a wide range of numbers, each poll is a bit suspect.

And who polled correctly in 2019 or early 2020?
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Old 8th November 2023, 07:13 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by ZiprHead View Post
I got called a couple years ago. About 7 questions in it became obvious it was a push poll. I told the person calling to **** off and hung up.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
We think alike. I ask at the beginning if it is a push poll, they say no, and as soon as it's obvious it is I explain to the poll taker (because they are usually just hired callers) what a push poll is and hang up.

I don't answer most of the calls I get but once in a while I do.
I had to look up "push poll" as I wasn't familiar with the term (but I've come across the actual polls).

For anyone else who needs it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
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Old 8th November 2023, 07:54 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Sure but look at the results of yesterday's election. Abortion rights and Democrats won all across the country and turnout was record breaking in a number of states.
RIGGED and STOLLEN!
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Old 8th November 2023, 10:04 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Problem with that scenario...

Impeach Trump, and whomever was picked as his Vice President becomes president. You could end up with someone who is just as corrupt/incompetent, but because they "tweet less" look like a better choice as an incumbent when it comes to re-election time.
Oh yeah...that worked so well the last time. You need a 2/3rds to get him out of office right? You think the Dems will be able to hold such a majority?
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Old 8th November 2023, 11:53 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Hmm, IMO we do. Unless I'm actually allowed to see the ballots myself, I am taking it on faith that the counting is done accurately and fairly. I do of course know that there are people out there that want to subvert the process... like the guy who used to be POTUS.

ETA: and I'd argue that our process for choosing the POTUS is pretty damned byzantine.
It’s orders of magnitude more difficult to rig an election than it is to rig a poll, thus making their results inherently more trustworthy.

The bottom line is this: Polling is telling us that Trump would beat Biden, but voters keep rejecting Trump’s brand of politics over and over again. So either Biden is a uniquely unpopular figure in the history of politics or the polls are missing something.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:02 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Trump is tied to it .. but it's not 100% overlap. It's not that if you voted for abortion rights, you will vote for Biden, and vice versa.
I'm claiming the different in overlap is bigger than theoretical error of the poll.
And the data you provided to support this claim is stunning in its depth and robustness.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:07 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
It’s orders of magnitude more difficult to rig an election than it is to rig a poll, thus making their results inherently more trustworthy.

The bottom line is this: Polling is telling us that Trump would beat Biden, but voters keep rejecting Trump’s brand of politics over and over again. So either Biden is a uniquely unpopular figure in the history of politics or the polls are missing something.
Or the polls have a result they want to use for media sensationalism and draw attention to themselves, and are quite prepared to filter the numbers to intimate support that result.

It's not that they want to say that milquetoast but effective Biden is clearly out in front. They want to say that media sensation and popularity magnet Trump is "running a close race".
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:15 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
"Biden is boring" is typical Trump style of argumentation. He won't argue with numbers and statistics. It got him elected once, and his approval improved since his loss, while Biden's dropped. He won't change his style, I doubt he's even capable of it. But it does work on many people. Roughly 50%. Doesn't it make you nervous ?
Whenever fascism is on the ballot it makes me nervous. That doesn’t lead me to reality-denying pessimism that sounds suspiciously a lot like the vibes-based doom-and-gloom pushed by the media to generate clicks.

Quote:
To everybody here: what makes you think Trump will not win ?
For the record, I acknowledge that Trump certainly can win. And if he does, it will be no one’s fault except the people who voted for him.

That being said, the reasons that make me hopeful he won’t are 1) Biden already beat him once and can do it again, 2) MAGA has been a loser at the ballot box for five years running, and 3) he faces a historically unprecedented litany of legal problems that are only now just kicking into gear.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:21 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
I will occasionally look at 538 but started wondering why I go there. Yes, they run the average some polls but snce the polls have a wide range of numbers, each poll is a bit suspect.
There are many genuine issues with polling accuracy but sceptics should not be making criticisms which are based on fundamental misunderstandings of how statistics and polling work, like the one I corrected in post #132. Let's make sure we're criticising the actual shortcomings and sources of error, rather than demonstrating our own ignorance.
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Old 9th November 2023, 03:33 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
You are forgetting about the large number of low information voters. They may not be paying attention to anything that isn't blasted all over the news for days at a time. Right now they see Trump's face and people calling Biden too old.

Wait till the headlines are Trump Org kicked out of NY, Trump not really a billionaire, and soon to follow, Trump going to jail. Those will be big headlines even the low information voters can't miss.


I don't know what a buttery male is.

The 'Trump disclosed security secrets that got to Hamas' is just getting going in those glaring headlines. That might just counter Biden supporting Israel's slaughter of Palestinians.



And?

I think all the current points that are going to made about the polls have been made. None of the polls claiming I should be worried about Trump beating Biden concern me.
Buttery Males refers to comments during the 2016 election. Any query about Donald Trump's suitability to be President due to his long history of lying, cheating and being a serial sex offender was deflected by saying "But her emails" about the whipped up controversy over Hillary Clinton's emails.
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Old 9th November 2023, 03:57 AM   #171
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Trump voters claim they want him because of his business acumen.
It's now an uncontested fact that the Trump way of business is to lie about what you have is worth.
Of course, the MAGA crowd is so deep into The Secret mentality that they can't tell the difference between something being something and something only looking like something.
.
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Old 9th November 2023, 05:22 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.
After thirty years now, I'd have thought people would have seen enough of the milquetoast, slightly less cruel, "we don't want to be evil, but we have to be 'for the good of the country'" right wing thinking that's supposed to represent moderatism never works against half way well advertised red in tooth and claw "up yours, I got mine" conservatism.

Why have skim milk when you can get full fat.
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Old 9th November 2023, 05:26 AM   #173
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"all or nothing" leaves you with nothing.
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Old 9th November 2023, 05:29 AM   #174
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Yeah great whatever.

Until we get rid of first past the post/EC style voting you only have two choices that's reality.

Your morals mean nothing. Your standards mean nothing. The reality is that every single eligible vote that doesn't go to Biden in 2024; be it a 3rd party vote, a protest vote, be a "They didn't offer me a perfect candidate so I'm gonna stay home" non-vote, is an active vote for Trump.
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Old 9th November 2023, 05:45 AM   #175
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"Don't think of it as a vote For Biden, just think of it as a vote Against Trump, the free world depends on it."
It's a bit long for a bumper sticker, but an honest assessment.
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Old 9th November 2023, 05:51 AM   #176
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Also all the things that MIGHT make third party candidates viable or get us out of this "Voting for the lesser of two evils" thing ain't gonna happen if Trump gets in power again.

You think the Republicans are gonna let the EC lose any power seeing as how they haven't had a President actually win the popular vote in what like two decades now?

You think Republicans want us to actually have a viable choice between Their Evil and Various Forms of Good where we can vote for one of the Various Forms of Good without splitting our power and cutting our own legs off?

Even if you're one issue voter and "End of the Two Party System" is your one issue, you still need to vote for Biden.
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Old 9th November 2023, 06:14 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Citation for highlighted, please.

From The Washington Times:

Election polls from 2016 were a case study in failure
What 2016 should have taught the US is that polls, as a necessity, cannot correct for GQP cheating (before even a single ballot was cast, Hillary Clinton was effectively 10,000,000 votes behind because of cheating in GQP stayes), and that elections for national office are far too important to be left in the hands of state level political appointees.
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Old 9th November 2023, 06:28 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
There are many genuine issues with polling accuracy but sceptics should not be making criticisms which are based on fundamental misunderstandings of how statistics and polling work, like the one I corrected in post #132. Let's make sure we're criticising the actual shortcomings and sources of error, rather than demonstrating our own ignorance.
We can only compare the success rates of polls. Polls need to reach a good sample of the public. Some of them don't. Also the questions asked reflect the items in the press at the time. Nobody ever asks "what is important about the candidate to you that we have not asked?" Since you could not sort the answers well from that, it would require a new poll to add the most important "missing" item.

The statistics is not the problem. The problem it that the polled people do not undestand the question the way the pollsters think they do.
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Old 9th November 2023, 08:40 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
What 2016 should have taught the US...
From that link:

Quote:
The site Five Thirty Eight projected that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of an Electoral College victory... The New York Times projected an 85% chance of a Clinton presidency.
That means they were predicting 28.6% and 15% chances of Trump winning. Here's a graph from "538" showing that they had the win/loss odds going up & down at a fairly constant interval over the period leading up to election day, with election day being at the lowest point in the cycle, predicted at 64½ Hillary and 35½ Trump right before the election. Here's another showing the distribution of their predictions under different models, showing how close the dividing line between a Hillary win and a Trump win was to the middle of the range ahead of time. Here's an article they published in September that year titled "Democrats Should Panic If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week", which includes a map showing each of the states that failed us in blue, but pale blue, close to a white toss-up, and it has their borders in a thicker black line than most other borders, which the map key shows was their label for states they identified ahead of time as "tipping points". The information was there all along. Those who paid attention to it were warning us all along. Those who said everything's fine were simply not using it, not basing anything they said on the facts.

Ironically, I bumped into those graphs (my first two links of the three) while searching for something else, and they happen to have ironically been embedded in this ironical election-day Huffington Post article ironically titled "What's Wrong With 538" which ironically actually shows both that 538 had gotten it right while HP had gotten it wrong, and also how.

Given the fact that all of the article's data showed 538 being right and the article's author(s) being wrong, what was the basis for their conclusion going exactly the opposite way from the data, on election day but before the results were in (and treating Hillary's obvious win as an inevitable foregone conclusion)? If you read the article, you can see their "reasoning" all over the place in plain English, so there's no need to try to infer it. Each time they show a data point they don't like, they just answer it with "That leads to this conclusion. This conclusion obviously can't be right, so pointing to it proves them wrong". You couldn't ask for a more direct, obvious, textbook example of starting at the conclusion. They're literally telling us themselves "We start at our conclusion!".

But at least that one showed the data. The link in your post is mostly notable for its lack of it and biased filtering of it. The only thing it had other than what I've already quoted was a few survey percentages in certain states, showing not how big Hillary's supposed advantage was on election day or as an average over the previous x months but simply the biggest they'd ever peaked at at any time over the previous several months. The entire rest of the article was just narrative. So what's the source for the conclusion? That was it right there: narrative alone, with nothing else there for it to even possibly have come from. Again, that's a demonstration of the process: ignore data, just stick to the approved narrative as proof of itself. It's the only way to get back to the conclusion you started at.

I was going to compare the survey numbers in the states that mattered with the election results, but I'm out of time. For reference, here's the election outcome data. Look how wildly hugely different it is from the predictions! Sometimes up to a whole couple of points!

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Old 9th November 2023, 09:39 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Or the polls have a result they want to use for media sensationalism and draw attention to themselves, and are quite prepared to filter the numbers to intimate support that result.

It's not that they want to say that milquetoast but effective Biden is clearly out in front. They want to say that media sensation and popularity magnet Trump is "running a close race".
A close race sells the news. I'm not too upset by it, it also motivates Democratic voters to get out and vote.

I wonder how many tuned into last night's debate? It's down to 5 vultures waiting for Trump to die.
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Old 9th November 2023, 10:25 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
It’s orders of magnitude more difficult to rig an election than it is to rig a poll, thus making their results inherently more trustworthy.

The bottom line is this: Polling is telling us that Trump would beat Biden, but voters keep rejecting Trump’s brand of politics over and over again. So either Biden is a uniquely unpopular figure in the history of politics or the polls are missing something.
I think the polling is generally accurate. What they are missing is human nature. Lots of people right now, a year out, think of both Trump and Biden as deeply unpopular and a lot of them right now, are saying they won't vote for either. BUT when push comes to shove a lot of them are going to vote for someone. And, in my personal opinion, the majority will think of Biden as the least bad choice. Thats my own personal, talking to people who don't spend one tenth the amount of time thinking of politics in RL as we do here, opinion poll analysis.

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Old 9th November 2023, 10:55 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yeah great whatever.

Until we get rid of first past the post/EC style voting you only have two choices that's reality.

Your morals mean nothing. Your standards mean nothing. The reality is that every single eligible vote that doesn't go to Biden in 2024; be it a 3rd party vote, a protest vote, be a "They didn't offer me a perfect candidate so I'm gonna stay home" non-vote, is an active vote for Trump.
100%.
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Old 9th November 2023, 11:36 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
What 2016 should have taught the US is that polls, as a necessity, cannot correct for GQP cheating (before even a single ballot was cast, Hillary Clinton was effectively 10,000,000 votes behind because of cheating in GQP stayes), and that elections for national office are far too important to be left in the hands of state level political appointees.
2016 election truthers are a lot smaller group than the 2020 crowd, but every bit as moronic.
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Old 9th November 2023, 11:41 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
You think the Republicans are gonna let the EC lose any power seeing as how they haven't had a President actually win the popular vote in what like two decades now?
Minor nitpick... Bush Jr. did win the popular vote (50.7%) in the 2004 general election. Of course, he was an incumbent president at the time (with the advantages that that tends to bring). Before that, you have to go back to 1988 and Bush Sr. to find another election where the republicans won the popular vote.

For the most part I agree with your premise though... republicans benefit from the use of the electoral college (as opposed to the popular vote) and don't want to change it for that reason.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:14 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Quote:
A lot might not know. But some do know he lost. I suspect its a case where most MAGAchud just don't care rather than don't know.
You are forgetting about the large number of low information voters. They may not be paying attention to anything that isn't blasted all over the news for days at a time. Right now they see Trump's face and people calling Biden too old.
I am not forgetting about them.... I am just more pessimistic about the chance to reach them.

Quote:
Wait till the headlines are Trump Org kicked out of NY, Trump not really a billionaire, and soon to follow, Trump going to jail. Those will be big headlines even the low information voters can't miss.
Trump does have a host of civil and criminal trials that he will likely lose. But, i suspect there will be appeals o'plenty that might push off some of the worst outcomes (such as incarceration) until after the election.

Judge: "Guilty". Trump lawyer: "We will appeal". Judge: "Trump is on bail until appeal is resolved". Voter: "Trump must be innocent because he's not behind bars".

Quote:
Quote:
Trump gave away national secrets to the Russians and the Iranians. He gave information regarding nuclear submarine deployments to an Australian business man. Republican supporters do not care about issues of national security if it doesn't involve "Buttery males".
I don't know what a buttery male is.
Another poster already explained this...

"Buttery males" is a version of "But her emails", the typical rallying cry when anyone pointed out any of the criminal or moral failings of Trump. "Trump defrauded students at Trump University"... "But her emails..."... "Trump defrauded charities"... "But her emails...". "Trump has ties to russia". "Buttery males".

Quote:
The 'Trump disclosed security secrets that got to Hamas' is just getting going in those glaring headlines. That might just counter Biden supporting Israel's slaughter of Palestinians.
Trump voters will probably claim "But... that was so far in the past just let it go. Oh, by the way, Hillary was the devil".

Quote:
Quote:
True, not all of them do. But fivethirtyeight does an aggregate where they combine multiple polls (weighted by their reliability and age).
And?
The fact that they do an aggregate means that there is less chance that a single poll you are looking at is an outlier.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:25 PM   #186
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Statistics and predictions aren't magic.

When someone says something has a 1 in 10 chance of happening and it happens that just means the 1 in 10 (which isn't like some insane level of impossible thing that could never happen, it's just 'mostly unlikely') thing just happened to be the thing that happened in that case. It doesn't "break" polling or statistics as a concept.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:36 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Quote:
No they cannot control who decides to take a survey.

But pollsters are smart people. They know how to adjust the statistics to compensate.
...
The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.
Citation for highlighted, please.
According to fivethirtyeight...

2016 election: the last polls before the election had clinton winning the popular vote by 3.9%. The actual results had Clinton winning by 2.1%. So a difference of 1.8%.

fivethirtyeight (2016 election)

2020 election: the last polls before the election had Biden winning the popular vote by 8.4%. Biden won the election by 4.5%. So a difference of 3.9%.

fivethirtyeight (2020 election)

Quote:
From The Washington Times:

Election polls from 2016 were a case study in failure

The 2016 polls in swing states were way off. The site Five Thirty Eight projected that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of an Electoral College victory. The site projected big leads in Florida (2%), Wisconsin (5%), Michigan (4%) and Pennsylvania (4%). The New York Times projected an 85% chance of a Clinton presidency. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball projected Clinton would win 322 electoral votes. No pollster projected a Trump victory, because of faulty poll data in the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Keep in mind that this was not necessarily a problem with the polling data, but a problem with the analysts and "talking heads".

Furthermore:

- A chance of a clinton victory of 71% or 85% is far from a sure thing. Would you bet your life's savings on a lottery that where there was a 1 in 4 chances in losing? A "Likely winner" is not the same as "a guaranteed winner"

- The data in various swing states was not "faulty" per se... but, because of the nature of polling, the margin of error was higher in those states. Analysts didn't pay enough attention to that.
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Old 9th November 2023, 12:41 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It doesn't "break" polling or statistics as a concept.
And those who claim it does, in response to data they don't like, don't even really think it does either. If they really bought what they're selling, they'd respond the same way to data they do like.
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Old 9th November 2023, 01:15 PM   #189
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Machin has announced he is not seeking re-election.
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Old 9th November 2023, 03:39 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
...
The fact that they do an aggregate means that there is less chance that a single poll you are looking at is an outlier.
Not if they include the outliers which skew the results.

Then there is the issue of the timing of the polls they use. In a fast moving pre-election time period that could also skew the results.


Bottom line, I'm not that interested in the polls yet.
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Old 9th November 2023, 08:18 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Quote:
The fact that they do an aggregate means that there is less chance that a single poll you are looking at is an outlier.
Not if they include the outliers which skew the results.
If you mix one outlier poll with a dozen polls that are relatively similar, then the outlier will have only a small, minimal effect.
Quote:
Then there is the issue of the timing of the polls they use. In a fast moving pre-election time period that could also skew the results.
Yes, there is a lot of time between now and November 2024. Plenty of events might affect Biden's and Trump's popularity in that time.

But that doesn't mean that there isn't a need for concern. The fact that there can be so many things that SHOULD have caused Trump's popularity to crater but haven't is not a good sign.
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Old 9th November 2023, 08:29 PM   #192
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I don't need a poll to tell me how dangerous Trump is or to tell me how dangerous it is the GOP and the alt-right are doing everything they can to create a minority ruled authoritarian control of this country.

But then I'm not a low-information voter. IOW your debating about polls is lost on me. I'm sure there are others in the thread who you could have this discussion with.
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Old 10th November 2023, 12:30 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
And those who claim it does, in response to data they don't like, don't even really think it does either. If they really bought what they're selling, they'd respond the same way to data they do like.
Please stop telling us what we 'really think' in an attempt to bolster what you think. I don't trust polls. Period. Getting stung badly in 2016 was enough for me.
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Old 10th November 2023, 12:38 AM   #194
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Interesting Times article on this latest poll:

Quote:
Quote:
The New York Times/Siena College survey may also be significantly understating Biden’s support and overstating Trump’s. Trump’s supporters are particularly exercised right now because he is under attack from a variety of sources and their first reaction is always to defend him. Biden, who is in the midst of making hard calls on Israel, Ukraine and other difficult domestic issues, is invariably going to be making many people upset, even within his own coalition. This tends to look bad for an incumbent in a non-election year, but partisans pretty typically “come home” to their parties during an election year as they are reminded of the stakes.

And there are a number of ways in which that poll struggles to pass the smell test. It shows 22% of Black voters backing Trump when he won 12% of that demographic in 2020, with that figure often below 10% for Republican presidential candidates. The poll shows voters under 30 preferring Biden by only one percentage point; Biden won that group by double digits three years ago.

Is it possible that these Democratic leaning groups have moved so quickly in the Republican direction? It’s possible, but not particularly probable — demographic change in political support rarely happens that quickly, even allowing for some past polls being relatively accurate a year before an election.

One thing we do know is that presidential election results have been pretty rigid in the last two decades. Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and 47% in 2020; he’ll probably do around the same in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee. Chances are, we’re going to end up with a very close election, with the winner being determined by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. This is the way elections are going in this era, and we don’t need a poll to know this.
Quote:
Seth Masket is a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver.
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Old 10th November 2023, 12:54 AM   #195
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I said it before, and I say it again:

Polls that are good for Trump are GOOD FOR BIDEN!

The fear in 2016 was that people would vote for Trump if they see from polls that enough other people will vote for him.
That turned out to be a flawed idea back then, and it remains so now.

Generally speaking, people are looking for excuses NOT to vote for Democrats, and polls that suggest that a Democrat would win handsomely only makes people stay home, whereas the reverse is not true for Republicans.

The best way to mobilize voters in 2024 for Biden is to make it look like Trump will win.
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Old 10th November 2023, 01:00 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I said it before, and I say it again:

Polls that are good for Trump are GOOD FOR BIDEN!

The fear in 2016 was that people would vote for Trump if they see from polls that enough other people will vote for him.
That turned out to be a flawed idea back then, and it remains so now.

Generally speaking, people are looking for excuses NOT to vote for Democrats, and polls that suggest that a Democrat would win handsomely only makes people stay home, whereas the reverse is not true for Republicans.

The best way to mobilize voters in 2024 for Biden is to make it look like Trump will win.

Agreed. People came out in 2020 to vote AGAINST Trump and we need to make it clear that apathy could put him back in the WH.
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Old 10th November 2023, 10:19 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Agreed. People came out in 2020 to vote AGAINST Trump and we need to make it clear that apathy could put him back in the WH.
Or you know .. actually have a good democratic candidate ? Is Biden really the best you have ?
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Old 10th November 2023, 11:53 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Or you know .. actually have a good democratic candidate ? Is Biden really the best you have ?
that is never the question.

It's about name recognition and media presence.

It's a beauty contest, not a Nobel Prize
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Old 10th November 2023, 03:03 PM   #199
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https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog...e-polling.html

some criticism of the NYT polls
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Old 10th November 2023, 03:21 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Or you know .. actually have a good democratic candidate ? Is Biden really the best you have ?
Yes and he's a good candidate.
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