2024 Election Thread

[johnny karate]

Originally Posted by Brainster

It's not the Democrats' fault but at this point I do think they are the only ones who can fix it. The Republicans aren't going to get off the crazy train until it crashes.

That’s a ridiculously unfair burden. Conservatives have spent decades poisoning the minds of the American electorate with lies and propaganda and Trump was a natural consequence of that. The likes of Fox New primed millions of people to put us in exactly the position we’re in now.

Until Republicans start getting serious about cleaning house and telling the truth to themselves and their constituents, the best we’re going to do is limp along, skirting the edge of collapsing into an autocracy.

The irony of course is that most of the garbage being regurgitated in this thread about Biden being a senile invalid is part of that same propaganda machine that conservatives refuse to do anything about.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

The reason it's close is because in the US you have to be a member of a party to vote.

People define themselves on being red or blue.

It's embedded and ingrained partisanship.

The largest section of the electorate is "Independent" at about 46 percent (https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/p...filiation.aspx). In most states, the largest section of voters doesn't decide who will be in the general election.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

The reason it's close is because in the US you have to be a member of a party to vote. ....

That's only true in the primaries where the parties are electing their candidates.

Combined with gerrymandered districts however, it means running to be the party's nominee can mean a candidate in the GOP is running to the extreme right because that's who have taken over the GOP. And that means we get these horribly skewed legislators in Congress.

In the Senate it's skewed because no matter the population in the state, each state gets 2 Senators.

IOW the system is FUBAR on multiple levels. It's an uphill battle for sanity to prevail.

[Stacyhs]

Right now, sanity has lost bigly when it comes to the GOP. They're controlled by a sick, sick and dangerous lunatic.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Right now, sanity has lost bigly when it comes to the GOP. They're controlled by a sick, sick and dangerous lunatic.

Indeed. Despite their best efforts to find a bigger lunatic (Vivek, for example, and DeSantis is doing his best albeit with all the charisma of a dumpster).

[Norman Alexander]

Originally Posted by Craig4

The largest section of the electorate is "Independent" at about 46 percent (https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/p...filiation.aspx). In most states, the largest section of voters doesn't decide who will be in the general election.

I think Orph's point is that in other countries, the requirement and process to register to vote is entirely outside and independent of any political party structure or operation. It is the same as registering a birth, death or marriage - an independent and apolitical public service process.

In Australia, compulsory voting means political parties do not have to chase up or assist voters to register and vote. Eligible citizens will be registered and must vote anyway. So instead, the parties have to concentrate on all the other things political parties usually do...shouting at each other, false advertising, going on TV, making accusations, shouting at each other, waving placards, pleading, making speeches, being stupid, shouting at each other, blah blah blah.

[PitPat]

In US, Joe Manchin is not running for re-election. Thought there would be a thread on that since it's a one seat margin and I don't see how another Democrat will take his place there.

Then you have the presidential election, so if Trump wins, and it's another 50-50 (which it's been close to for a long while).

Kind of like a game of Pick Up Sticks, or Jenga. Any little move can bring everything down. See House Speaker and the prospect of continuing federal government funding.

[Delvo]

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander

in other countries, the requirement and process to register to vote is entirely outside and independent of any political party structure or operation.

As it is here.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

If you want...or need...to believe this kind of thing then that's on you.

Thanks for doing my homework. Sounds even creepier now.

[Darat]

Pity Biden has never ran against Trump before and won.

[PitPat]

It did happen once. And if both of them live long enough it may happen again.

I can't stress more how bad things will get if Trump wins. Everybody knows. I believe he could do it again with the electoral college.

And yeah people are saying Biden should set down his Aviators and let somebody else take over. But who is that going to jump in on such short notice, with a realistic chance? Gimme a name?

Sanders, never. Jeffries, nobody really knows him and way too soon, maybe someday. Anyway, it's not like there's a chance that Biden will walk up to the podium and say "I'm done, I'm dropping out."

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Thanks for doing my homework. Sounds even creepier now.

I see. That's a "I have no reasonable response so I'll just make what I think is a witty comeback to get in the last word and hope no one notices" response. No thanks, but you be you.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

That's only true in the primaries where the parties are electing their candidates.

Combined with gerrymandered districts however, it means running to be the party's nominee can mean a candidate in the GOP is running to the extreme right because that's who have taken over the GOP. And that means we get these horribly skewed legislators in Congress.

In the Senate it's skewed because no matter the population in the state, each state gets 2 Senators.

IOW the system is FUBAR on multiple levels. It's an uphill battle for sanity to prevail.

Even that's only true in 7 states.

https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-c...election-types

[tyr_13]

Originally Posted by PitPat

In US, Joe Manchin is not running for re-election. Thought there would be a thread on that since it's a one seat margin and I don't see how another Democrat will take his place there.

Then you have the presidential election, so if Trump wins, and it's another 50-50 (which it's been close to for a long while).

Kind of like a game of Pick Up Sticks, or Jenga. Any little move can bring everything down. See House Speaker and the prospect of continuing federal government funding.

Manchin was unlikely to win reelction regardless. He was almost certainly going to be running against Jim Justice, the current governor of West Virginia.

Now the only dem running is a Marine Corp FAST veteran, a working class progressive, who also quotes John Brown. Which, while sounding perfect to me, might be a long shot in the general election. Not to say there is a better option for West Virginia; a performative 'moderate' isn't going to win anyone away from Justice. A working class progressive is the best chance.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

I see. That's a "I have no reasonable response so I'll just make what I think is a witty comeback to get in the last word and hope no one notices" response. No thanks, but you be you.

No, I clearly stated my position is unchanged. Creepy uncle touching girls is not better if the girl says she doesn't mind.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

No, I clearly stated my position is unchanged. Creepy uncle touching girls is not better if the girl says she doesn't mind.

I had a thread on Creepy Joe when he was running for 2020 and I stand by the point I made at the time:

If any other adult male touched little girls the way Joe Biden touches little girls, he would either cop a fist in the face or a visit from the police.

I was amazed the Republicans didn't make more of it at the time, but maybe the Republicans were scared that an attack on Biden as a sexual predator might backfire on the fact that their bloke was a sexual predator as well.

The Dems don't care, so it's a lost cause. It's just a nice old man who likes to touch pre-pubescent girls' chests and kiss and sniff their hair.

A few years back, our bloke pulled an adult ponytail and half the country wanted him to fall on his sword.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I had a thread on Creepy Joe when he was running for 2020 and I stand by the point I made at the time:

If any other adult male touched little girls the way Joe Biden touches little girls, he would either cop a fist in the face or a visit from the police.

I was amazed the Republicans didn't make more of it at the time, but maybe the Republicans were scared that an attack on Biden as a sexual predator might backfire on the fact that their bloke was a sexual predator as well.

The Dems don't care, so it's a lost cause. It's just a nice old man who likes to touch pre-pubescent girls' chests and kiss and sniff their hair.

A few years back, our bloke pulled an adult ponytail and half the country wanted him to fall on his sword.

you're not really aware of religious communities in the US, are you?

[ZiprHead]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Obama would have eaten Trump alive in a discussion. Biden is glad he remembers his own name. He's just not the best speaker. He's barely A speaker. Though to be fair, it's still fine as long as he reads.

Trump has now said in speeches seven times that he beat Obama in the 2016 election.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by ZiprHead

Trump has now said in speeches seven times that he beat Obama in the 2016 election.

Has he literally said this or was it more like Obama's anointed successor he beat - in effect beating Obama ?

[ZiprHead]

Originally Posted by The Don

Has he literally said this or was it more like Obama's anointed successor he beat - in effect beating Obama ?

Trump confuses Obama and Biden in speech, warns Biden will lead U.S. into 'World War II'

Youtube link.

[ZiprHead]

President Drink Bleach says what? Trump now claims he beat George W. Bush and Barack Obama
Trump was already dumb, but he's getting worse — yet MAGA doesn't care. The press should cover his decline anyway

Salon link

[PitPat]

Originally Posted by ZiprHead

Trump confuses Obama and Biden in speech, warns Biden will lead U.S. into 'World War II'

Youtube link.

Yeah saw both of those things. Trump being a his own history professor and talking without filter. Biden being overly publicly, and at times weirdly, affectionate. I don't think Biden is a pervert, just a little bit like an over-cologned uncle at Thanksgiving who's just happy to be there. Trump, possibly pervert.

These are our choices, America. Good luck!

[Dave Rogers]

Originally Posted by PitPat

I don't think Biden is a pervert, just a little bit like an over-cologned uncle at Thanksgiving who's just happy to be there. Trump, possibly pervert and definitely rapist.

FTFY.

Dave

[Regnad Kcin]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Thanks for doing my homework. Sounds even creepier now.

Mr. Biden’s daily agenda could include a three-hour slot for sniffing and kissing, with a 15-minute cigarette break, and he would still be several orders of magnitude better than Trump.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

you're not really aware of religious communities in the US, are you?

No, I'm sadly fully aware of them, right up to where Trump is King Cyrus.

Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin

Mr. Biden’s daily agenda could include a three-hour slot for sniffing and kissing, with a 15-minute cigarette break, and he would still be several orders of magnitude better than Trump.

Maybe the Democrats should aim the bar a little higher than "Better than a rapist, racist, misogynist piece of ****".

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin

Mr. Biden’s daily agenda could include a three-hour slot for sniffing and kissing, with a 15-minute cigarette break, and he would still be several orders of magnitude better than Trump.

Sure. My point is there must be someone better, as just being Biden might not be enough this time.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by Darat

Pity Biden has never ran against Trump before and won.

In 2020 when the dynamics were such due to Covid that he could run a campaign from his basement. Next year he won't have that liberty, although he could try the Rose Garden strategy (which didn't work for Jimmy Carter).

Nate Silver is out with an article essentially arguing that the only thing crazier than trying to oust Biden is letting him run if he can't handle the rigors of the campaign.

He references (but does not link) this article by Jonathan Martin at Politico:

Quote:

2024 will be an extraordinary election, and it demands extraordinary measures.

That’s in part for reasons Biden refuses to accept: his capacity to do the job. The oldest president in history when he first took the oath, Biden will not be able to govern and campaign in the manner of previous incumbents. He simply does not have the capacity to do it, and his staff doesn’t trust him to even try, as they make clear by blocking him from the press. Biden’s bid will give new meaning to a Rose Garden campaign, and it requires accommodation to that unavoidable fact of life.

[jt512]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Citation for highlighted, please.

Quote:

The AAPOR task force examined 2,858 polls, including 529 national presidential race polls and 1,572 state-level presidential polls. They found that the surveys overstated the margin between President Biden and former president Donald Trump by 3.9 points in the national popular vote and 4.3 percentage points in state polls.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...af1_story.html


BTW, the national average across 2020 presidential polls was off by only about 2% of the popular vote.

[jt512]

Originally Posted by Tero

I will occasionally look at 538 but started wondering why I go there. Yes, they run the average some polls but snce the polls have a wide range of numbers, each poll is a bit suspect.

You do know that the average across polls will be more accurate than than the average poll, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[jt512]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

The reason it's close is because in the US you have to be a member of a party to vote.

Not in the US I live in.

[jt512]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

I always respond to legitimate public opinion polls.

[Regnad Kcin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Maybe the Democrats should aim the bar a little higher than "Better than a rapist, racist, misogynist piece of ****".

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Sure. My point is there must be someone better, as just being Biden might not be enough this time.

Let me try a different angle.

Insofar as we elect an administration, not just a presidential ticket, I’m okay if the chief of staff and the entire West Wing prop up Joe Weekend at Bernie’s style if it comes to that. The Biden team is made up of competent if not outstanding bureaucrats, personnel, and staff. I don’t trust Trump’s goons to put the batteries in a TV remote without starting a fire.

Put another way, I for one, sitting back in 13C at 30,000’, am relaxed, confident the people on the flight deck know what they’re doing, even when navigating some rough skies. Trump is happy to sit in his cave directing Team MAGA to storm the cockpit and fly us all into a skyscraper.

You know, for ratings.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I had a thread on Creepy Joe when he was running for 2020 and I stand by the point I made at the time:

If any other adult male touched little girls the way Joe Biden touches little girls, he would either cop a fist in the face or a visit from the police.

I was amazed the Republicans didn't make more of it at the time, but maybe the Republicans were scared that an attack on Biden as a sexual predator might backfire on the fact that their bloke was a sexual predator as well.

The Dems don't care, so it's a lost cause. It's just a nice old man who likes to touch pre-pubescent girls' chests and kiss and sniff their hair.

A few years back, our bloke pulled an adult ponytail and half the country wanted him to fall on his sword.

Oh for pity's sake, get your minds out of the gutter. He didn't grab them by their pussies.

He's 80 and has no history, none, zilch, of being a pedophile. No one even brought it up until the GOP slime machine went to town looking for something, anything they had on Biden. They made up BS about the Biden crime family and they are trying to smear him as 'doddering' and 'old'.

They got nothing and this is also nothing. Do you know any grandparents that do innocent but embarrassing things?

He also stopped doing it when it was pointed out to him it might look bad. Did he slip?

If he did it begs the question, why wasn't he told not to do it years ago?

Maybe because it wasn't more of an issue than grandpa is embarrassing.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by ZiprHead

Trump has now said in speeches seven times that he beat Obama in the 2016 election.

Can't wait to see that montage, coming soon to social media near you.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Don

Has he literally said this or was it more like Obama's anointed successor he beat - in effect beating Obama ?

He said it, literally. A few of the times he might have realized his mistake too late and tried to cover it up with a followup line.

He has a habit of doing that to coverup his mistakes like when he was told he said he was in Sioux Falls and he was in Sioux City, instead of admitting the mistake he asked people how many of them were from Sioux City then quickly changed the subject.

Trump has been obsessed with beating Obama when Obama made fun of him at the WH Correspondents Dinner. Trump's mental illness is that severe.

Speaking of which, a good way to get the man off his game is replay that birth certificate joke Obama pulled.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Biden bashers really need to STFU. People doing it are embarrassing themselves. They need to take that echo-chamber nonsense over to the kiddy table.

In the meantime, Biden is the Democratic candidate and all the bashing isn't going to drive him away so people can have their imaginary zipless **** * candidate instead. It's analogous to MAGA cultists believing Trump is going to do all the magical things he pretends he's going to do.

BTW, what all the Biden bad-mouthing is doing is enticing all the fringe candidates to get in the race because they can't help that imaginary thinking anyway. Just like Ralph Nader gave us GW Bush and the Iraq War and all the Hillary bashing did not get us Bernie, it got us Trump.

Grow up people. Your personal dislike of Biden is going to get us Nightmare Trump, poised to follow Bad Dream Trump. And if you don't live in the US don't think for a minute it won't affect you:

I'm sure it wouldn't interest anybody
Outside of a small circle of friends

*Reference from Erica Jong's Fear of Flying

Quote:

“The zipless **** is absolutely pure. It is free of ulterior motives. There is no power game . The man is not "taking" and the woman is not "giving." No one is attempting to cuckold a husband or humiliate a wife. No one is trying to prove anything or get anything out of anyone. The zipless **** is the purest thing there is. And it is rarer than the unicorn. And I have never had one.”
― Erica Jong, Fear of Flying

IOW a zipless candidate is that magical one who doesn't exist.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin

Let me try a different angle.

Insofar as we elect an administration, not just a presidential ticket, I’m okay if the chief of staff and the entire West Wing prop up Joe Weekend at Bernie’s style if it comes to that. The Biden team is made up of competent if not outstanding bureaucrats, personnel, and staff. I don’t trust Trump’s goons to put the batteries in a TV remote without starting a fire.

Put another way, I for one, sitting back in 13C at 30,000’, am relaxed, confident the people on the flight deck know what they’re doing, even when navigating some rough skies. Trump is happy to sit in his cave directing Team MAGA to storm the cockpit and fly us all into a skyscraper.

You know, for ratings.

I'm not saying Trump will be doing it better. I'm saying Biden might not beat him this time.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Biden bashers really need to STFU. People doing it are embarrassing themselves. They need to take that echo-chamber nonsense over to the kiddy table.

It's not Biden bashing. It's bashing people who think he is the best candidate.

[Delvo]

Now I'm just stuck in linguist-mode trying to figure out how anybody could have ever associated zips or ziplessness with that concept.

[tyr_13]

Originally Posted by Brainster

In 2020 when the dynamics were such due to Covid that he could run a campaign from his basement. Next year he won't have that liberty, although he could try the Rose Garden strategy (which didn't work for Jimmy Carter).

Nate Silver is out with an article essentially arguing that the only thing crazier than trying to oust Biden is letting him run if he can't handle the rigors of the campaign.

He references (but does not link) this article by Jonathan Martin at Politico:

Biden has had a fairly busy schedule as President, including a fairly grueling Asia tour.

But more to the point, no one is probably going to be able to run a 'normal' campaign simply by dint of the shear number and magnitude of ongoing crisis happening in the world. Trump could basically ignore the job and campaign while CiC, but I doubt anyone else could do that just because of a lack of the requisite overwhelming hubris.

No idea how the voters respond to such considerations.