Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[a_unique_person]

Russia's piggy bank nearly empty.

Quote:

Russia’s latest budget update shows the price caps on its oil are starting to bite even before the more recent caps on its diesel and other refined products take effect.
Official data released by Russia’s Ministry of Finance on Monday show that the budget deficit in January was 1.76 trillion roubles (about $36 billion), with revenue from oil and gas nearly halving from their level a year earlier and expenditures swelling 59 per cent, presumably largely because of the cost of the war in Ukraine.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/t...07-p5cifq.html

[Dr.Sid]

Now what will you do .. if you have no money .. but you do have thousands of nukes.
Will you sell them to highest bidder ? Or will you extort random countries around the world ?
Nah .. I'm sure Russia will just admit a mistake and everything will be fine.

[theprestige]

I don't think there's any way for Russia to realistically sell nukes at the quantities and prices they'd need to sustain their economy. Likewise I don't see any extortion attempts being taken seriously. Any country with enough money to make a difference to Russia is already helping Ukraine, and already ignoring Russia's weekly nuclear threats.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Russia's piggy bank nearly empty.



https://www.theage.com.au/business/t...07-p5cifq.html

Wrong. Flat-out wrong.
Neither is "Russia's piggy bank nearly empty", nor does the article you quote say it's nearly empty.

I came here to post on the same topic, but my source, German public-law news source Tagesschau has some more numbers to work with:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft...fizit-101.html

According to this, the "piggy bank" is currently holding

• 10.4 billion Euros
• 307 billion Yuan which are worth about 41.8 billion Euros
• 551 tons of gold which are worth about 30.6 billion Euros

for a total of close to 83 billion Euros.

Budget expenditures in January were about 40 billion euros, that's up 59% from last year. So the piggy bank could finance about 2 months of current expenditures without any other income flowing in.

They sold this January

• 2.27 billion Yuan, that's 0.74% of reserves
• 3.6 tons of gold, that's 0.65% of reserves

If that remains the rate at which they need to sell assets to make up for the budget deficit plus what they can still raise on credit markets (e.g. domestically), then the piggy bank won't be empty for another ca. 144 months = 12 years.

It is precisely times like this that you create a piggy bank for in the first place, so nothing unexpected or dramatic happening here. Yet.

(Of course I found this development at least interesting enough to come here and post about it.)

[sackett]

Oystein: A good post, and sobering. Thank you.

However (you knew I'd say that), and I know that I'm an embarassingly ignorant layman, I wonder how much Russian wealth is liquid. How quickly can Putain convert it to military uses? Can he face down his fellow thieves, who consider state wealth theirs?

If he tries selling gold in large amounts, he risks lowering its price -- helped on his way by, say, the US dumping gold at the same time.

Now I'll resume my seat and prepare to be educated.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by sackett

Oystein: A good post, and sobering. Thank you.

However (you knew I'd say that), and I know that I'm an embarassingly ignorant layman, I wonder how much Russian wealth is liquid. How quickly can Putain convert it to military uses? Can he face down his fellow thieves, who consider state wealth theirs?

If he tries selling gold in large amounts, he risks lowering its price -- helped on his way by, say, the US dumping gold at the same time.

Now I'll resume my seat and prepare to be educated.

I have no further education to offer. Just a few unconnected and ill-educated thoughts:

• The same Tagesschau article says that Russian gross domestic product fell by less than 4% in 2022, despite crippling sanctions, so that is probably part of the reason why Putin only now needed to tap the piggy bank, and only so moderately for now: The Russian economy has so far been able to churn out at least some bare minimum of what it takes to keep a modest war going.
• I remember that in the early days of the war, many sources pointed out that Russia had spent years investing soaring oil and gas revenues in reserves of gold and major currencies, which is why it was predicted early on that Putin could ride out some level of sanctions for quite some time rather easily.
• It seems to me that gold and Yuans should be convertible at all times. I don't understand global finances sufficiently to have a first idea if and how Europe could make it hard for Russia to use her reserves in Euros.
• Another way to finance the war is to issue bonds - mainly domestically, I think. I think it is difficult to prevent such war bonds from becoming equivalent to printing money if and when the economy tanks. Which in in the long run it surely will.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Oystein

I have no further education to offer. Just a few unconnected and ill-educated thoughts:

• The same Tagesschau article says that Russian gross domestic product fell by less than 4% in 2022, despite crippling sanctions, so that is probably part of the reason why Putin only now needed to tap the piggy bank, and only so moderately for now: The Russian economy has so far been able to churn out at least some bare minimum of what it takes to keep a modest war going.
• I remember that in the early days of the war, many sources pointed out that Russia had spent years investing soaring oil and gas revenues in reserves of gold and major currencies, which is why it was predicted early on that Putin could ride out some level of sanctions for quite some time rather easily.
• It seems to me that gold and Yuans should be convertible at all times. I don't understand global finances sufficiently to have a first idea if and how Europe could make it hard for Russia to use her reserves in Euros.
• Another way to finance the war is to issue bonds - mainly domestically, I think. I think it is difficult to prevent such war bonds from becoming equivalent to printing money if and when the economy tanks. Which in in the long run it surely will.

On your first point, are we really going to depend on Russia's numbers for their economy. The Russian economy was in the toilet and getting worse before the war started, only being temporarily propped up by Europe stupidly getting out of Nuclear power after Fukushima. On their war economy, Russia's ability to make tanks or planes is gone, it's ability to modernise old and repair busted tanks is gone, it's ability to manufacture modern munitions and weapons is gone, it's ability to manufacture out of date munitions and weapons severely restricted and it's ability to supply and maintain an army in the field shown to be a sick joke.

On ploughing your reserves into gold and foreign currencies (of which I reckon Russia's ability was vastly overestimated. This is a country swimming in corruption after all. If even 10% of state revenues are not used for backhanders, I'd be surprised), just because you can do so doesn't mean that you can use said reserves. Russia was a country whose banking sector was wiped out by 2008, all their reserves were held in foreign accounts. And guess what happened to those accounts? They got froze, Russia can't touch them. And don't even think they can tap the oligarchs, those inside Russia are in the same boat, and they can't realistically touch those outside Russia.

Bonds don't help if they're denominated in monopoly money, especially if you're Russia and you have to import virtually everything to support the war. Germany found out all about this problem towards the end of both world wars where the attrition and losing made their currency worthless in both instances.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I don't think there's any way for Russia to realistically sell nukes at the quantities and prices they'd need to sustain their economy. Likewise I don't see any extortion attempts being taken seriously. Any country with enough money to make a difference to Russia is already helping Ukraine, and already ignoring Russia's weekly nuclear threats.

And I think we would detect any movement of Russian Nukes.

Remember that movie they made in 1997 about a rogue Russian generals selling nukes with Nicole Kidman and George Clooney "The Peacemaker"?

[sackett]

"In the hour of victory, tighten your chinstrap," said the old-time samurai. That's a graphic way of saying, Don't kid yerself.

Of course, samurai didn't loathe their enemies, who were fellow-gentlemen. We're not so lucky.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And I think we would detect any movement of Russian Nukes.

Remember that movie they made in 1997 about a rogue Russian generals selling nukes with Nicole Kidman and George Clooney "The Peacemaker"?

Ah, what a great tip !

[lobosrul5]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...UmaAlxFDQ&s=19

Sir David Attenborough narrates the war... Don't think that was a Leopard though ��

[steenkh]

It is my impression that there is a lot of wishful thinking in the matter of the Ukraine war. Russia is supposed to have a lousy economy, incompetent leadership that can never improve, inability to sustain the war, etc.

Some of this might be true, but I doubt that all of it is true. I particularly think that the Russian military performance can improve, and I think we have already seen some signs of this.

And from the Tagesschau article we can conclude that the Russian economy can probably also sustain the war for many years to come.

It has also been claimed that at the current rate Russian manpower will run out “soon”. There is no reason to think that Russia will continue burning up their manpower at the current rate, and Ukraine’s manpower is certainly much more limited than Russia’s, so I don’t think we should expect a Russian breakdown because of manpower soon.

One should never underestimate the enemy, but of course one can always hope …

[The Don]

Originally Posted by steenkh

It is my impression that there is a lot of wishful thinking in the matter of the Ukraine war. Russia is supposed to have a lousy economy, incompetent leadership that can never improve, inability to sustain the war, etc.

Some of this might be true, but I doubt that all of it is true. I particularly think that the Russian military performance can improve, and I think we have already seen some signs of this.

And from the Tagesschau article we can conclude that the Russian economy can probably also sustain the war for many years to come.

It has also been claimed that at the current rate Russian manpower will run out “soon”. There is no reason to think that Russia will continue burning up their manpower at the current rate, and Ukraine’s manpower is certainly much more limited than Russia’s, so I don’t think we should expect a Russian breakdown because of manpower soon.

One should never underestimate the enemy, but of course one can always hope …

...and don't believe your own propaganda w.r.t. your own, and your enemy's performance

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

On your first point, are we really going to depend on Russia's numbers for their economy.

No, we are not. Tagesschau quoted numbers from the International Monetary Fund.
But I'llmake sure to never depend on the IMF and instead turn to you to learn all the ins and outs of international money shifts

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

The Russian economy was in the toilet and getting worse before the war started,

It was whatever it was. About the size of Spain's, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports...
And down only 3.4% from what it was a year before.

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

only being temporarily propped up by Europe stupidly getting out of Nuclear power after Fukushima.

No, that would have been very insiginificant.

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

On their war economy, Russia's ability to make tanks or planes is gone, it's ability to modernise old and repair busted tanks is gone, it's ability to manufacture modern munitions and weapons is gone, it's ability to manufacture out of date munitions and weapons severely restricted and it's ability to supply and maintain an army in the field shown to be a sick joke.

Sure, bet on that. IF you are desperate to lose a war.

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

On ploughing your reserves into gold and foreign currencies (of which I reckon Russia's ability was vastly overestimated.

Source?
Are you saying the reserves Tagesschau listed are not actually nearly the reserves they got?

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

This is a country swimming in corruption after all. If even 10% of state revenues are not used for backhanders, I'd be surprised), just because you can do so doesn't mean that you can use said reserves. Russia was a country whose banking sector was wiped out by 2008, all their reserves were held in foreign accounts. And guess what happened to those accounts? They got froze, Russia can't touch them.

Ah.
So Russia DIDN'T just sell some billions in gold and Yuans. Well thank GOD we have YOU to clear that up

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

And don't even think they can tap the oligarchs, those inside Russia are in the same boat, and they can't realistically touch those outside Russia.

Bonds don't help if they're denominated in monopoly money, especially if you're Russia and you have to import virtually everything to support the war. Germany found out all about this problem towards the end of both world wars where the attrition and losing made their currency worthless in both instances.

Yes, Germany found out toward the end of those wars. After several YEARS. We will also find out about Russia. Peraps after YEARS?

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by The Don

...and don't believe your own propaganda w.r.t. your own, and your enemy's performance

Precisely. I have always doubted reports of catastrophic Russian losses, and I think it will take years before we hear about Ukrainian catastrophic losses, if they had any.

But I do not really doubt that the Russians have had heavier losses than the Ukrainians. It is evident from the fact that the Russians have been attacking dug-in defences, whereas the Ukrainians, in their successful attacks, have been mostly pursuing a beaten enemy.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Oystein

It was whatever it was. About the size of Spain's, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports...
And down only 3.4% from what it was a year before.

I don't think the main issue with Russia's economy is its size. Its that a huge chunk of it is flowing into a very small percentage of their people. Its inefficient for most of your money to go into supporting a few hundred incredibly rich people. Can they change that in time to make a difference in Ukraine. Can they manufacture sophisticated arms in such quantities to defeat Ukraine before they are thrown entirely out of the country? I think no.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I don't think the main issue with Russia's economy is its size. Its that a huge chunk of it is flowing into a very small percentage of their people. Its inefficient for most of your money to go into supporting a few hundred incredibly rich people. Can they change that in time to make a difference in Ukraine. Can they manufacture sophisticated arms in such quantities to defeat Ukraine before they are thrown entirely out of the country? I think no.

I don't think this is correct. Who owns the wealth is a different question from what kind of wealth it is. In regards to Russia in particular, the problem isn't so much that wealth is concentrated among a small group of people, but that it's concentrated in a few sectors of the economy, most notably oil and gas. The concentration of economic activity in oil and gas extraction has hollowed out their manufacturing capacity, which prevents them from churning out weapons in numbers that the Soviets could do. Even if all that oil money was spread evenly throughout the population, that wouldn't help them shift capacity to manufacturing. Likewise, if they had massive heavy manufacturing capacity all owned by one man, they'd be better off in terms of military production.

Now, I think it's also true that corruption is hampering their capabilities, and corruption also leads to a high concentration of wealth, but that concentration by itself isn't really the problem as I see it.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I don't think this is correct. Who owns the wealth is a different question from what kind of wealth it is. In regards to Russia in particular, the problem isn't so much that wealth is concentrated among a small group of people, but that it's concentrated in a few sectors of the economy, most notably oil and gas. The concentration of economic activity in oil and gas extraction has hollowed out their manufacturing capacity, which prevents them from churning out weapons in numbers that the Soviets could do. Even if all that oil money was spread evenly throughout the population, that wouldn't help them shift capacity to manufacturing. Likewise, if they had massive heavy manufacturing capacity all owned by one man, they'd be better off in terms of military production.

Now, I think it's also true that corruption is hampering their capabilities, and corruption also leads to a high concentration of wealth, but that concentration by itself isn't really the problem as I see it.

True, but if they had taken that oil and gas money and developed an arms industry... not for profit, just to supply their own army... I think it wouldn't matter that their consumer manufacturing sector has been left to whither. But instead, it sure seems anyways, that they were too concerned in taking their raw resource profits and buying mega-yachts, building palaces, and buying fleets of Ferrari's.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And with that last bit of nonsense, I am putting this poster as a de facto Putin Apologist

There is an interview on YouTube with a volunteer from the UK. One night his team had trucks loaded with new western weapons. The next day they were gone.

[Dr.Sid]

Complex answers ? That won't get you far ..

[lobosrul5]

Video of 31 knocked out Russia tanks/APC's near Vuhledar.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1623636828795424771

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian military isn't racked by corruption issues at the moment.

[sinnikal]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ones-elon-musk

If Elon Musk gets a chance to be a **** about anything he'll grap it with both hands.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by sinnikal

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ones-elon-musk

If Elon Musk gets a chance to be a **** about anything he'll grap it with both hands.

The quicker the US faces reality and declares Russia officially an enemy foreign nation, the quicker stuff like this can be properly policed.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by sinnikal

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ones-elon-musk

If Elon Musk gets a chance to be a **** about anything he'll grap it with both hands.

Unless, this time, they're actually concerned about the potential of militarizing Starlink. If they're trying to get licenced in multiple countries, some may be concerned about that.

Further, they want to sell the US military capability.

It looks like Ukraine ingenuity outpaced them! It's all troubling, any way you look at it. I just don't think Musk is being a **** about it... specifically... necessarily... this time.

[dudalb]

Brouhaha over the WAPO Printing a story that the US has been providing targeting information from US Satellites to the Ukraninas; some accusing the WAPO of hurting the US with this information.
From a military point of view, nonsense. As bad as the Russian Military is, they must have guessed we were feeding the Ukrainians information from early on, just from the accuracy of the Ukranians strikes.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Video of 31 knocked out Russia tanks/APC's near Vuhledar.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1623636828795424771

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian military isn't racked by corruption issues at the moment.

It's the "Ukraine is a corrupt country" routine I find objectionable.
Clear attempt at "Moral Equvilency"

[sackett]

Oh jebus christ, dudb. Do you always fly that crazily? Or that low?

Here are 2 good maxims about war:

1. Know your enemy.

2. Know your allies.

They're of equal value.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Wrong. Flat-out wrong.
Neither is "Russia's piggy bank nearly empty", nor does the article you quote say it's nearly empty.

I came here to post on the same topic, but my source, German public-law news source Tagesschau has some more numbers to work with:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft...fizit-101.html

According to this, the "piggy bank" is currently holding

• 10.4 billion Euros
• 307 billion Yuan which are worth about 41.8 billion Euros
• 551 tons of gold which are worth about 30.6 billion Euros

for a total of close to 83 billion Euros.

Budget expenditures in January were about 40 billion euros, that's up 59% from last year. So the piggy bank could finance about 2 months of current expenditures without any other income flowing in.

They sold this January

• 2.27 billion Yuan, that's 0.74% of reserves
• 3.6 tons of gold, that's 0.65% of reserves

If that remains the rate at which they need to sell assets to make up for the budget deficit plus what they can still raise on credit markets (e.g. domestically), then the piggy bank won't be empty for another ca. 144 months = 12 years.

It is precisely times like this that you create a piggy bank for in the first place, so nothing unexpected or dramatic happening here. Yet.

(Of course I found this development at least interesting enough to come here and post about it.)

Originally Posted by Oystein

I have no further education to offer. Just a few unconnected and ill-educated thoughts:

• The same Tagesschau article says that Russian gross domestic product fell by less than 4% in 2022, despite crippling sanctions, so that is probably part of the reason why Putin only now needed to tap the piggy bank, and only so moderately for now: The Russian economy has so far been able to churn out at least some bare minimum of what it takes to keep a modest war going.
• I remember that in the early days of the war, many sources pointed out that Russia had spent years investing soaring oil and gas revenues in reserves of gold and major currencies, which is why it was predicted early on that Putin could ride out some level of sanctions for quite some time rather easily.
• It seems to me that gold and Yuans should be convertible at all times. I don't understand global finances sufficiently to have a first idea if and how Europe could make it hard for Russia to use her reserves in Euros.
• Another way to finance the war is to issue bonds - mainly domestically, I think. I think it is difficult to prevent such war bonds from becoming equivalent to printing money if and when the economy tanks. Which in in the long run it surely will.

From Reuters:

Russia's Jan budget deficit widens as energy revenues slump

MOSCOW, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Slumping energy revenues and soaring expenditure pushed Russia's federal budget to a deficit of 1.76 trillion roubles ($24.78 billion) in January, as sanctions and the cost of Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine choke the economy's prospects.

Citing preliminary data, Russia's finance ministry said on Monday oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower at 426 billion roubles in January than in the same month last year, which it put down primarily to lower prices for Russia's Urals blend and lower volumes of natural gas exports.

Non-oil and gas revenues were 28% lower at 981 billion roubles, attributed to lower domestic VAT and income tax takings.

Overall, budget revenues for the month were down 35.1%, while spending was 58.7% higher in January 2023, at 3.12 trillion roubles, already more than 10% of the full-year spending plan.

As for the hilited, the worst of the "crippling sanctions" didn't take effect until late 2022 or early 2023, so the decline in GDP is likely to be much greater than 4% this year, especially when other factors such as human capital flight and loss of Western technical expertise are added in.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

From Reuters:

Russia's Jan budget deficit widens as energy revenues slump

MOSCOW, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Slumping energy revenues and soaring expenditure pushed Russia's federal budget to a deficit of 1.76 trillion roubles ($24.78 billion) in January, as sanctions and the cost of Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine choke the economy's prospects.

Citing preliminary data, Russia's finance ministry said on Monday oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower at 426 billion roubles in January than in the same month last year, which it put down primarily to lower prices for Russia's Urals blend and lower volumes of natural gas exports.

Non-oil and gas revenues were 28% lower at 981 billion roubles, attributed to lower domestic VAT and income tax takings.

Overall, budget revenues for the month were down 35.1%, while spending was 58.7% higher in January 2023, at 3.12 trillion roubles, already more than 10% of the full-year spending plan.

As for the hilited, the worst of the "crippling sanctions" didn't take effect until late 2022 or early 2023, so the decline in GDP is likely to be much greater than 4% this year, especially when other factors such as human capital flight and loss of Western technical expertise are added in.

By far the most significant factor that determines budget revenues in Russia is the prices for oil and gas. Which indeed quite recently fell with the introduction of the Western price cap. Previously, that means earlier i nthe war, prices had gone sharply up, such that Russia earned more from selling fossils to Europe despite selling less.
Now, just the other day, Russia announced it would cut oil production sharply, and that sent world market prices up a bit immediately.
Energy prices are a fickle thing: We are dealing with a limited number of suppliers, many of them in autocratic countries, all of them interested in higher prices, some of them latently forming cartels.
Im fall, the IMF predicted that Russian GDP would fall by another 2.3% - i.e. a little. But that was before oil and gas prices had fallen (e.g. Urals oil was trading between $60 and $80 in fall, between $50 and $60 since mid-December; US natural gas was between $5,000 and $7,500 in fall, has dropped from 5,000 around Christmas to now around $2,500).

[seayakin]

More on how Russia is using convicts to identify artillery targets not caring how many die.

I just can't imagine this is sustainable.

New York Times Article

[The Don]

Originally Posted by seayakin

More on how Russia is using convicts to identify artillery targets not caring how many die.

I just can't imagine this is sustainable.

New York Times Article

It is sustainable so long as Putin and his regime can convince the Russian people that the Motherland is under attack from NATO Nazis and that it's worth a significant blood sacrifice from people who don't really matter - criminals, non ethnic Russians, foreigners and people from far-flung oblasts.

Sadly, there are millions of men who match that description and so far even Ukraine has only claimed to have killed between 100k and 150k . The Russians are proud of their sacrifice in the Great Patriotic War, a million or two dead in the sequel won't even cause people to blink so long as that propaganda can be maintained.

[carlosy]

There have been rumors of another video of 'execution by sledgehammer' in the Wagner-Group, for russians who don't do as they told.

I won't be searching for it!

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by seayakin

More on how Russia is using convicts to identify artillery targets not caring how many die.

I just can't imagine this is sustainable.

New York Times Article

Originally Posted by The Don

It is sustainable so long as Putin and his regime can convince the Russian people that the Motherland is under attack from NATO Nazis and that it's worth a significant blood sacrifice from people who don't really matter - criminals, non ethnic Russians, foreigners and people from far-flung oblasts.

Sadly, there are millions of men who match that description and so far even Ukraine has only claimed to have killed between 100k and 150k . The Russians are proud of their sacrifice in the Great Patriotic War, a million or two dead in the sequel won't even cause people to blink so long as that propaganda can be maintained.

The head of the Wagner Group has indicated that he is no longer recruiting from prisons. There have also been reports that the number of prisoners who meet the requirements is already greatly diminished.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by carlosy

There have been rumors of another video of 'execution by sledgehammer' in the Wagner-Group, for russians who don't do as they told.

I won't be searching for it!

As if it's not on top of the page everywhere ..

[Wudang]

From @wartranslated on twitter

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...74991703531520

Quote:

News from the "large-scale offensive", this is the 4th mobik unit filming an appeal to the ministry of defence wondering why they were turned from the 3rd line defence forces into assault troops. They have not been provided adequate equipment.

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by carlosy

There have been rumors of another video of 'execution by sledgehammer' in the Wagner-Group, for russians who don't do as they told.

I won't be searching for it!

They probably think it is more ‘macho’ to execute somebody by sledgehammer.

The person being executed probably will not find that there is is great difference. If done properly, it could be quick, and need not be a long drawn out torment like, say being electrocuted or injected with a poison while awake.

There is plenty of possibility of botching the execution, but that is the case with almost any form of execution.

So I regard it as a signal designed to convince an audience that these are really tough guys, not like the wimps who shoot or hang deserters.

Despicable, I call it.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by The Don

It is sustainable so long as Putin and his regime can convince the Russian people that the Motherland is under attack from NATO Nazis and that it's worth a significant blood sacrifice from people who don't really matter - criminals, non ethnic Russians, foreigners and people from far-flung oblasts.

Sadly, there are millions of men who match that description and so far even Ukraine has only claimed to have killed between 100k and 150k . The Russians are proud of their sacrifice in the Great Patriotic War, a million or two dead in the sequel won't even cause people to blink so long as that propaganda can be maintained.

It'll last until the mothers of St Petersburg and Moscow can't stand the body bags. The problem for Putain is that this is a war of agression fought in another country. With World War II everbody could see it was a defensive war for survival so even anti-Stalinists were willing to suspend hostilities and give their all to the fight. This won't happen here.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

It'll last until the mothers of St Petersburg and Moscow can't stand the body bags. The problem for Putain is that this is a war of agression fought in another country. With World War II everbody could see it was a defensive war for survival so even anti-Stalinists were willing to suspend hostilities and give their all to the fight. This won't happen here.

That's why they're avoiding conscripting from Moscow and St Petersburg wherever possible and instead relying on non-Russians and/or conscripts from remote areas.

Support for the war will continue until those Russians have to actually pay a price.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Don

That's why they're avoiding conscripting from Moscow and St Petersburg wherever possible and instead relying on non-Russians and/or conscripts from remote areas.

Support for the war will continue until those Russians have to actually pay a price.

That does risk fuelling separatist movements.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by jimbob

That does risk fuelling separatist movements.

It does. So long as they're starved of resources, though, there's not much chance of such mattering.