Chinese Spy Balloon Over Montana - Page 6

pgwenthold · 5th February 2023, 06:46 AM

Originally Posted by crescent

Lots of CT's about the balloon:

1: Biden has known about it for weeks. (It was probably only launched less than a week ago).

2: It has an EMP (This one is really popular at the moment, I'm guessing Fox news or some conservative conspiracy monger with a live show is pushing it).

3: The balloon is full of poison gas, or viruses.

4: My own personal theory that you all get to see first: A small boy from Colorado is inside and needs to be rescued and his parents totally are not thinking about having their own reality TV show.

They also can't seem to comprehend that the balloon is moving, it's not over Montana anymore. Nor is it "hovering" as some news reports have said. It is really that hard for news reports to use the word "drifting"??

I heard a claim that there were actually two previous of these things during the previous administration, and they were not shot down but were kept secret.

I'll add that to your list of conspiracy theories

Myriad · 5th February 2023, 07:34 AM

Originally Posted by dann

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...7#post14002137

tyr_13 · 5th February 2023, 08:12 AM

Originally Posted by pgwenthold

I heard a claim that there were actually two previous of these things during the previous administration, and they were not shot down but were kept secret.

I'll add that to your list of conspiracy theories

Forbes has sourced it, so pretty reliable that it did happen, at least twice reportedly.

rdaneel · 6th February 2023, 12:47 AM

Originally Posted by MarkCorrigan

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/phot...5W_460swp.webp

Spy Balloon
Spy Balloon
Does whatever a balloon can
Watch it drift, right on by
Floating high up in the sky
Watch out
Here comes the spy balloon.

lobosrul5 · 6th February 2023, 10:23 AM

My theory is that first off while China has spy satellites they probably have much lower resolution cameras than ours. Hence the need for the balloon.

China sent this for two reasons, to try and collect data. We were probably jamming its outgoing communications while over the USA. But eventually they'd be able to collect the data when we could no longer jam it. This is why we shot it down about 2 minutes after it was across the coast.

The other half of this is political. China is seeing what they can get away with, and if its still business as usual: ie noooo we in the west have to play nice when hostile nations violate our airspace* else they might escalate, and we have to set some sort of example that maybe we can hope that they'll also follow.. one day. I think Ukraine is setting the tone of a more hawkish NATO/Pacific alliance of western nations. Next time Russia sends a bomber just inside NATO airspace it needs to be shot the **** down. Stop letting them get away with this, they aren't going to respond with nukes because ours are about 100 times better, they'll lose, their leaders will all die in a fiery death. **** around and find out needs to be the new military/political policy of the west.

*yeah I've noticed the chatter on what is and isn't our airspace etc... its not in space, its our airspace

pgwenthold · 6th February 2023, 10:41 AM

I really have to wonder, though, what kind of spy information can be obtained by a free floating balloon?

Chart its course and see what it passed over...did it go over anything that would be beneficial for the Chinese to see? I mean, it came in over Montana but I don't think it went over Area 51 or any of the desert military bases or anything like that, did it?

I'm not saying that we should allow spy balloons into the US or anything, just that as far as espionage and spying goes, a balloon doesn't seem like a very effective approach.

ETA ...in the world of modern day survaillence. I don't care that the Japanese thought about doing it back in WW2...

theprestige · 6th February 2023, 10:52 AM

My understanding is that, spy sats having been a thing since the sixties, the interested powers stopped leaving their important bits lying around in the open fifty years ago.

Myriad · 6th February 2023, 11:06 AM

I doubt a camera was among the main instruments. Detecting and analyzing radio signals makes more sense. Especially, whatever they can learn about military drone control signals, from frequencies to encoding schemes.

Thermal · 6th February 2023, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by Myriad

I doubt a camera was among the main instruments. Detecting and analyzing radio signals makes more sense. Especially, whatever they can learn about military drone control signals, from frequencies to encoding schemes.

Makes sense. Kind of a fishing expedition, low tech and unusual vantage point.

TragicMonkey · 6th February 2023, 01:49 PM

Originally Posted by Thermal

Makes sense. Kind of a fishing expedition

Well, it did land in the ocean. I'm not certain that it caught enough fish to really justify the expense, though. And there's the problem of getting them back before they spoil, as well.

Thermal · 6th February 2023, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Well, it did land in the ocean. I'm not certain that it caught enough fish to really justify the expense, though. And there's the problem of getting them back before they spoil, as well.

Probably down for shooting for flying fish before they shot the fishy flying thing down.

dudalb · 6th February 2023, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

My theory is that first off while China has spy satellites they probably have much lower resolution cameras than ours. Hence the need for the balloon.

China sent this for two reasons, to try and collect data. We were probably jamming its outgoing communications while over the USA. But eventually they'd be able to collect the data when we could no longer jam it. This is why we shot it down about 2 minutes after it was across the coast.

The other half of this is political. China is seeing what they can get away with, and if its still business as usual: ie noooo we in the west have to play nice when hostile nations violate our airspace* else they might escalate, and we have to set some sort of example that maybe we can hope that they'll also follow.. one day. I think Ukraine is setting the tone of a more hawkish NATO/Pacific alliance of western nations. Next time Russia sends a bomber just inside NATO airspace it needs to be shot the **** down. Stop letting them get away with this, they aren't going to respond with nukes because ours are about 100 times better, they'll lose, their leaders will all die in a fiery death. **** around and find out needs to be the new military/political policy of the west.

*yeah I've noticed the chatter on what is and isn't our airspace etc... its not in space, its our airspace

SOme people are bending over backwards to avoid doing anything to offend Xi I think.
And I think the "Loose weather balloon " theory has been, excuse the expression shot down.
Or maybe some peoole, once they make a statment simply refuse to admit they made a mistake and contineu to defend their statmenst even when proven wrong.

TragicMonkey · 6th February 2023, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

SOme people are bending over backwards to avoid doing anything to offend Xi I think.

One analysis on BBC News suggests the possibility that this was done by someone/s in China who wished to embarrass Xi. No dictator has ever dictated without having internal enemies, after all.

dudalb · 6th February 2023, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

One analysis on BBC News suggests the possibility that this was done by someone/s in China who wished to embarrass Xi. No dictator has ever dictated without having internal enemies, after all.

My own theory was more along the lines it was one of those stupid ideas that Intelligence Agencies come up with, that somehow got greenlighted.

Doubt · 6th February 2023, 06:12 PM

New CT I want to see. The balloon was being used to spread fluoride into the US water supply.

Why not recycle the classics?

novaphile · 6th February 2023, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Doubt

New CT I want to see. The balloon was being used to spread fluoride into the US water supply.

Why not recycle the classics?

No it was a Chinese balloon.

It was spreading soy milk powder to make all American men into girly men.

(The only defence against this is to wear N95 face-masks at all time.)

Skeptic Ginger · 6th February 2023, 07:40 PM

These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between.

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Srsly how did US air defense miss it ?

I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is.

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

How would they know unless they have actually analyzed it? It may, I suppose, be an experimental atmospheric research balloon . . . disguised as a standard weather balloon. But as any sort of spy it is almost completely worthless. ...

I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending.

Originally Posted by tyr_13

Forbes has sourced it, so pretty reliable that it did happen, at least twice reportedly.

If true it's going to be interesting to find out the military didn't inform Trump because they couldn't be sure he wouldn't start a war over it. Maybe they will use his example and just lie, say they told him but he didn't really respond.

Originally Posted by sarge

No, it isn’t. Or at least it wasn’t. Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above.

Lots of reports this violates some international treaty. Being in low Earth orbit is exempt so satellites can function.

Originally Posted by sarge

It obviously isn’t a ‘spy ballon’. It obviously isn’t a threat. It seemingly arrived here accidentally. It is more dangerous shot down than floating about. What should be done about it?

I think the facts contradict this.

Originally Posted by sarge

I entered the thread opining that this balloon is:

1. Not a threat to anything.
2. Is not a ‘spy balloon’.
3. Was not, when it crossed our land border, in US controlled airspace

Some posters started using “sovereign airspace’ and ‘territorial airspace’ in a way that indicates they believe these terms have meaning and are different than ‘controlled airspace’. I’m asking for an authoritative cite for this notion.

As for shooting down the balloon, I’ve given no real thought to whether or not it would be a permissible act under any of the dozens of treaties the US is signatory to that might apply. I have considered that shooting the thing down over land was never a prudent act. The balloon posed zero threat to us. It could not gather intel, it wasn’t going to drop a bomb or spray nerve gas, or do any of the other outlandish things bandied about in this thread.

After it left our land border, I can see two valid reasons for shooting it down. Doing so might eliminate the tiny risk that it would eventually land on someone or something. Doing so might send some message to the Chinese or any other nation that might attempt to transit our airspace contrary to our wishes - it demonstrates that we can shoot down balloons.

In short (too late, I know) I only cared to hear how the balloon above 60,000’ was in US jurisdiction. If there is such a thing as ‘sovereign’ airspace that isn’t identical to Controlled Airspace, I’d like to hear it specifically defined by upper and lower altitude limits.

Did China's balloon violate international law?

Quote:

Every country has complete sovereignty and control over its waters extending 12 nautical miles (about 22 kilometres) from its land territory.

Every country likewise has "complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory" under international conventions.

This means each country controls all access to its airspace, which includes both commercial and government aircraft.

But the upper limit of sovereign airspace is unsettled in international law. In practice, it generally extends to the maximum height at which commercial and military aircraft operate, which is around 45,000 feet (about 13.7km).

The supersonic Concorde jet, however, operated at 60,000 feet (over 18km). The Chinese balloon was also reported to be operating at a distance of 60,000 feet.

International law does not extend to the distance at which satellites operate, which is traditionally seen as falling within the realm of space law.
..

I thought it was 200 miles from our coasts. Sounds like that's not universally settled either. It seems the US response to China is that it is in our airspace.

jt512 · 6th February 2023, 11:01 PM

Originally Posted by sarge

Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above.

To put this mistaken notion to rest, hopefully once and for all, the balloon, which was flying between 60,000 and 65,000 feet, was in US controlled airspace. Specifically, it was in Class E controlled airspace. Per Paragraph 6-2-6.d.2 of the Aeronautical Information Manual, an official publication of the FAA: "The airspace above FL 600 [basically, 60,000 feet] is Class E airspace."

rjh01 · 6th February 2023, 11:56 PM

Originally Posted by jt512

To put this mistaken notion to rest, hopefully once and for all, the balloon, which was flying between 60,000 and 65,000 feet, was in US controlled airspace. Specifically, it was in Class E controlled airspace. Per Paragraph 6-2-6.d.2 of the Aeronautical Information Manual, an official publication of the FAA: "The airspace above FL 600 [basically, 60,000 feet] is Class E airspace."

That is what I said here http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8#post14002488 . But I appear to have been ignored. Mind you only one person seems to have argued it was not in something other than controlled airspace and he has not posted since I posted.

jt512 · 7th February 2023, 12:48 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

That is what I said here http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8#post14002488 . But I appear to have been ignored. Mind you only one person seems to have argued it was not in something other than controlled airspace and he has not posted since I posted.

And that one person is a self-described commercial pilot, who, when I suggested he look it up for himself, said he didn't have to because he was a commercial pilot. Know-it-all people are annoying; know-it-all pilots are dangerous.

erwinl · 7th February 2023, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by jt512

And that one person is a self-described commercial pilot, who, when I suggested he look it up for himself, said he didn't have to because he was a commercial pilot. Know-it-all people are annoying; know-it-all pilots are dangerous.

And as a major part of a commercial pilot's workload consists of an advanced course in checklist management, you'd think that, if there's one thing a pilot is good at, it is in looking things up.

jt512 · 7th February 2023, 01:05 AM

Originally Posted by erwinl

And as a major part of a commercial pilot's workload consists of an advanced course in checklist management, you'd think that, if there's one thing a pilot is good at, it is in looking things up.

All I know is that I was taught in flight school that as a pilot you will always be learning. I guess sarge never got that lesson.

Lplus · 7th February 2023, 02:15 AM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between.

I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is.

So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc.

Quote:

I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending.

Depends where it sending them - relay satellite?

Dr.Sid · 7th February 2023, 02:24 AM

Originally Posted by Lplus

So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc.

Depends where it sending them - relay satellite?

Worse. Relay balloon !

Pixel42 · 7th February 2023, 02:36 AM

Originally Posted by Lplus

So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc.

Depends where it sending them - relay satellite?

The recordings of the radars etc provoked by the RAF ELINT aircraft aren't sent anywhere, they're simply retrieved when they return to base. Had this balloon not been shot down its payload could similarly have been eventually retrieved.

rjh01 · 7th February 2023, 03:20 AM

Originally Posted by Pixel42

The recordings of the radars etc provoked by the RAF ELINT aircraft aren't sent anywhere, they're simply retrieved when they return to base. Had this balloon not been shot down its payload could similarly have been eventually retrieved.

I only hope the USA has recovered the recordings and can find out exactly what it was doing. Taking photos at certain spots? It's a spy satellite. Just taking atmospheric readings? Then it is a weather balloon. A bit simplistic, but true.

MRC_Hans · 7th February 2023, 03:21 AM

Originally Posted by dann

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

That is forever great, but I prefer it in the original German language. The stocky German gives it just that extra dark mood.

Hans

a_unique_person · 7th February 2023, 05:08 AM

I think it is just as much about trolling the USA. The division and discord it has created is amazing.

theprestige · 7th February 2023, 06:27 AM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

I think it is just as much about trolling the USA. The division and discord it has created is amazing.

LOL.

Name one US policy position of substantial importance to China, where US policymakers were previously united, but are now divided because of the balloon incident.

Or are you just referring to some slapfight between terminally online Twitter accounts that were already neck-deep in division and discord anyway?

crescent · 7th February 2023, 08:10 AM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between.

I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is.

I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending.

If true it's going to be interesting to find out the military didn't inform Trump because they couldn't be sure he wouldn't start a war over it. Maybe they will use his example and just lie, say they told him but he didn't really respond.

Lots of reports this violates some international treaty. Being in low Earth orbit is exempt so satellites can function.
I think the facts contradict this.

Did China's balloon violate international law?I thought it was 200 miles from our coasts. Sounds like that's not universally settled either. It seems the US response to China is that it is in our airspace.

My take is that airspace is just that - the space with air. As in, enough air for the object to use to stay up. A balloon floats on air, and airplane gets lift from air movement over the wings (more or less).

A satellite does not depend upon air to maintain it's position and trajectory. So anywhere with air thin enough to allow things to orbit is not airspace. Anywhere with air thick enough to support a balloon or airplane is. There may be a gray area, but that would be well above the height this balloon was at.

And rjh01 has repeatedly provided that cite anyway.

The waters thing is clearer. 12 miles is the general limit of full national sovereignty - with exceptions based on geography such as when one nation's island is close to another nation's coast. So for example, a ship cannot pass within 12 miles of another nation's coast without permission from that nation.

The 200 mile limit is the exclusive economic zone - fishing and oil production rights. It is international waters, ships can pass through it. But they can't fish or drill for oil there without permission from another nation.

That's my understanding of it, anyway.

theprestige · 7th February 2023, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by crescent

My take is that airspace is just that - the space with air. As in, enough air for the object to use to stay up. A balloon floats on air, and airplane gets lift from air movement over the wings (more or less).

Seems reasonable, but I would be cautious. Compound words in English do not reliably take their definitions from the definitions of their component words. This is especially true with terms of art and technical jargon.

What "airspace" means in terms of international treaties and regions of interest to national security probably does not map directly to literal "spaces with air".

jt512 · 7th February 2023, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans

That is forever great, but I prefer it in the original German language. The stocky German gives it just that extra dark mood.

Hans

I agree that the original German was better. It was also more popular than the English version in America.

lobosrul5 · 7th February 2023, 12:12 PM

Originally Posted by theprestige

Seems reasonable, but I would be cautious. Compound words in English do not reliably take their definitions from the definitions of their component words. This is especially true with terms of art and technical jargon.

What "airspace" means in terms of international treaties and regions of interest to national security probably does not map directly to literal "spaces with air".

True, but it does seem that internationally, when you get so high above sea level that the air density become so low that conventionally powered aircraft can no longer operate, is pretty much the accepted definition. However, between about 85,000 feet and 300,000 feet is a weird area where no airplanes can fly* but the little bit of air will rapidly decay a satellite orbit.

*apparently a MIG made it to about 125,000 feet, but only briefly by pointing its nose up until it stalled out. 85,000 is about where an SR-71 cruised

pgwenthold · 7th February 2023, 12:21 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

True, but it does seem that internationally, when you get so high above sea level that the air density become so low that conventionally powered aircraft can no longer operate, is pretty much the accepted definition. However, between about 85,000 feet and 300,000 feet is a weird area where no airplanes can fly* but the little bit of air will rapidly decay a satellite orbit.

*apparently a MIG made it to about 125,000 feet, but only briefly by pointing its nose up until it stalled out. 85,000 is about where an SR-71 cruised

In the Legal Eagle video, they referred to a possible limit of 100 km (62 mi), so that would be more than 300 000 feet, but it wasn't official. They didn't mention any other limit.

lobosrul5 · 7th February 2023, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by pgwenthold

In the Legal Eagle video, they referred to a possible limit of 100 km (62 mi), so that would be more than 300 000 feet, but it wasn't official. They didn't mention any other limit.

Thats the altitude of the "Karman Line". Which is an attempt to set a boundary for space. But, no such thing really exists. There is still a bit of air even at the Karman Line, thats why the ISS is quite a bit higher.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line

Article quotes some other astrophysicists that think the line should be at 80km, about where its possible to keep an elliptically orbiting satellite in a stable orbit.

Skeptic Ginger · 7th February 2023, 12:44 PM

The semantics of the meaning of "airspace" in this context is moot. China isn't arguing they had a right to float balloons at 60K feet. They are arguing it was a benign weather balloon.

theprestige · 7th February 2023, 12:57 PM

And anyway I'd argue that the semantics of "airspace" above a nation's territories but below LEO are trumped by the semantics of "molon labe". No rational actor is going to claim an unfettered right to lob things over another country without warning or permission, and without that country being free to shoot it down at their convenience. Regardless of what sub-orbital altitude it flies at.

Honestly if the US (or Japan, or anyone else) were to shoot down a North Korean missile test over international waters, I doubt North Korea would have a strong legal case for complaining about it.

Trebuchet · 7th February 2023, 12:59 PM

Legal Eagle discusses the problem:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

mgidm86 · 7th February 2023, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by theprestige

And anyway I'd argue that the semantics of "airspace" above a nation's territories but below LEO are trumped by the semantics of "molon labe". No rational actor is going to claim an unfettered right to lob things over another country without warning or permission, and without that country being free to shoot it down at their convenience. Regardless of what sub-orbital altitude it flies at.

Honestly if the US (or Japan, or anyone else) were to shoot down a North Korean missile test over international waters, I doubt North Korea would have a strong legal case for complaining about it.

Yep. I don't see any point in worrying about it in this case. **** em, really. What are they gonna do lob another balloon at us? We kiss their asses enough already.

Navigator · 7th February 2023, 02:46 PM

5th February 2023, 06:46 AM	#201
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 21,035	Originally Posted by crescent Lots of CT's about the balloon: 1: Biden has known about it for weeks. (It was probably only launched less than a week ago). 2: It has an EMP (This one is really popular at the moment, I'm guessing Fox news or some conservative conspiracy monger with a live show is pushing it). 3: The balloon is full of poison gas, or viruses. 4: My own personal theory that you all get to see first: A small boy from Colorado is inside and needs to be rescued and his parents totally are not thinking about having their own reality TV show. They also can't seem to comprehend that the balloon is moving, it's not over Montana anymore. Nor is it "hovering" as some news reports have said. It is really that hard for news reports to use the word "drifting"?? I heard a claim that there were actually two previous of these things during the previous administration, and they were not shot down but were kept secret. I'll add that to your list of conspiracy theories
	__________________ "As your friend, I have to be honest with you: I don't care about you or your problems" - Chloe, Secret Life of Pets

5th February 2023, 08:12 AM	#203
tyr_13 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 17,534	Originally Posted by pgwenthold I heard a claim that there were actually two previous of these things during the previous administration, and they were not shot down but were kept secret. I'll add that to your list of conspiracy theories Forbes has sourced it, so pretty reliable that it did happen, at least twice reportedly.
	__________________ Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong

6th February 2023, 12:47 AM	#204
rdaneel Illuminator Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: I'M IN THE PHONEBOOK! I'M SOMEBODY!!! Posts: 4,585	Originally Posted by MarkCorrigan https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/phot...5W_460swp.webp Spy Balloon Spy Balloon Does whatever a balloon can Watch it drift, right on by Floating high up in the sky Watch out Here comes the spy balloon.
	__________________ "Let me guess, my theories appall you, my heresies outrage you, I never answer letters, and you don't like my tie." - The Doctor "I heard some things I can't prove from someone I don't know, and God dammit, that's enough for me." - Penny Arcade "Any sufficiently analyzed magic is indistinguishable from Science!" - Agatha Heterodyne

6th February 2023, 10:23 AM	#205
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,423	My theory is that first off while China has spy satellites they probably have much lower resolution cameras than ours. Hence the need for the balloon. China sent this for two reasons, to try and collect data. We were probably jamming its outgoing communications while over the USA. But eventually they'd be able to collect the data when we could no longer jam it. This is why we shot it down about 2 minutes after it was across the coast. The other half of this is political. China is seeing what they can get away with, and if its still business as usual: ie noooo we in the west have to play nice when hostile nations violate our airspace* else they might escalate, and we have to set some sort of example that maybe we can hope that they'll also follow.. one day. I think Ukraine is setting the tone of a more hawkish NATO/Pacific alliance of western nations. Next time Russia sends a bomber just inside NATO airspace it needs to be shot the ** down. Stop letting them get away with this, they aren't going to respond with nukes because ours are about 100 times better, they'll lose, their leaders will all die in a fiery death. ** around and find out needs to be the new military/political policy of the west. *yeah I've noticed the chatter on what is and isn't our airspace etc... its not in space, its our airspace
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,423

6th February 2023, 10:41 AM	#206
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 21,035	I really have to wonder, though, what kind of spy information can be obtained by a free floating balloon? Chart its course and see what it passed over...did it go over anything that would be beneficial for the Chinese to see? I mean, it came in over Montana but I don't think it went over Area 51 or any of the desert military bases or anything like that, did it? I'm not saying that we should allow spy balloons into the US or anything, just that as far as espionage and spying goes, a balloon doesn't seem like a very effective approach. ETA ...in the world of modern day survaillence. I don't care that the Japanese thought about doing it back in WW2...
	__________________ "As your friend, I have to be honest with you: I don't care about you or your problems" - Chloe, Secret Life of Pets Last edited by pgwenthold; 6th February 2023 at 10:42 AM.

6th February 2023, 10:52 AM	#207
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,546	My understanding is that, spy sats having been a thing since the sixties, the interested powers stopped leaving their important bits lying around in the open fifty years ago.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division.

6th February 2023, 11:06 AM	#208
Myriad The Clarity Is Devastating Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Betwixt Posts: 19,988	I doubt a camera was among the main instruments. Detecting and analyzing radio signals makes more sense. Especially, whatever they can learn about military drone control signals, from frequencies to encoding schemes.
	__________________ A zømbie once bit my sister...

6th February 2023, 01:00 PM	#209
Thermal Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: In the Troll Ignoring Section Posts: 21,898	Originally Posted by Myriad I doubt a camera was among the main instruments. Detecting and analyzing radio signals makes more sense. Especially, whatever they can learn about military drone control signals, from frequencies to encoding schemes. Makes sense. Kind of a fishing expedition, low tech and unusual vantage point.
	__________________ "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain "Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet

6th February 2023, 01:49 PM	#210
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 65,281	Originally Posted by Thermal Makes sense. Kind of a fishing expedition Well, it did land in the ocean. I'm not certain that it caught enough fish to really justify the expense, though. And there's the problem of getting them back before they spoil, as well.
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

6th February 2023, 01:53 PM	#211
Thermal Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: In the Troll Ignoring Section Posts: 21,898	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey Well, it did land in the ocean. I'm not certain that it caught enough fish to really justify the expense, though. And there's the problem of getting them back before they spoil, as well. Probably down for shooting for flying fish before they shot the fishy flying thing down.
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6th February 2023, 01:58 PM	#212
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,778	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 My theory is that first off while China has spy satellites they probably have much lower resolution cameras than ours. Hence the need for the balloon. China sent this for two reasons, to try and collect data. We were probably jamming its outgoing communications while over the USA. But eventually they'd be able to collect the data when we could no longer jam it. This is why we shot it down about 2 minutes after it was across the coast. The other half of this is political. China is seeing what they can get away with, and if its still business as usual: ie noooo we in the west have to play nice when hostile nations violate our airspace* else they might escalate, and we have to set some sort of example that maybe we can hope that they'll also follow.. one day. I think Ukraine is setting the tone of a more hawkish NATO/Pacific alliance of western nations. Next time Russia sends a bomber just inside NATO airspace it needs to be shot the ** down. Stop letting them get away with this, they aren't going to respond with nukes because ours are about 100 times better, they'll lose, their leaders will all die in a fiery death. ** around and find out needs to be the new military/political policy of the west. *yeah I've noticed the chatter on what is and isn't our airspace etc... its not in space, its our airspace SOme people are bending over backwards to avoid doing anything to offend Xi I think. And I think the "Loose weather balloon " theory has been, excuse the expression shot down. Or maybe some peoole, once they make a statment simply refuse to admit they made a mistake and contineu to defend their statmenst even when proven wrong.
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6th February 2023, 02:03 PM	#213
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 65,281	Originally Posted by dudalb SOme people are bending over backwards to avoid doing anything to offend Xi I think. One analysis on BBC News suggests the possibility that this was done by someone/s in China who wished to embarrass Xi. No dictator has ever dictated without having internal enemies, after all.
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6th February 2023, 03:29 PM	#214
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,778	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey One analysis on BBC News suggests the possibility that this was done by someone/s in China who wished to embarrass Xi. No dictator has ever dictated without having internal enemies, after all. My own theory was more along the lines it was one of those stupid ideas that Intelligence Agencies come up with, that somehow got greenlighted.
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6th February 2023, 06:12 PM	#215
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,789	New CT I want to see. The balloon was being used to spread fluoride into the US water supply. Why not recycle the classics?
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6th February 2023, 06:38 PM	#216
novaphile Quester of Doglets Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Sunny South Australia Posts: 4,432	Originally Posted by Doubt New CT I want to see. The balloon was being used to spread fluoride into the US water supply. Why not recycle the classics? No it was a Chinese balloon. It was spreading soy milk powder to make all American men into girly men. (The only defence against this is to wear N95 face-masks at all time.)
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6th February 2023, 07:40 PM	#217
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 93,401	These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between. Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Srsly how did US air defense miss it ? I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is. Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto How would they know unless they have actually analyzed it? It may, I suppose, be an experimental atmospheric research balloon . . . disguised as a standard weather balloon. But as any sort of spy it is almost completely worthless. ... I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending. Originally Posted by tyr_13 Forbes has sourced it, so pretty reliable that it did happen, at least twice reportedly. If true it's going to be interesting to find out the military didn't inform Trump because they couldn't be sure he wouldn't start a war over it. Maybe they will use his example and just lie, say they told him but he didn't really respond. Originally Posted by sarge No, it isn’t. Or at least it wasn’t. Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above. Lots of reports this violates some international treaty. Being in low Earth orbit is exempt so satellites can function. Originally Posted by sarge It obviously isn’t a ‘spy ballon’. It obviously isn’t a threat. It seemingly arrived here accidentally. It is more dangerous shot down than floating about. What should be done about it? I think the facts contradict this. Originally Posted by sarge I entered the thread opining that this balloon is: 1. Not a threat to anything. 2. Is not a ‘spy balloon’. 3. Was not, when it crossed our land border, in US controlled airspace Some posters started using “sovereign airspace’ and ‘territorial airspace’ in a way that indicates they believe these terms have meaning and are different than ‘controlled airspace’. I’m asking for an authoritative cite for this notion. As for shooting down the balloon, I’ve given no real thought to whether or not it would be a permissible act under any of the dozens of treaties the US is signatory to that might apply. I have considered that shooting the thing down over land was never a prudent act. The balloon posed zero threat to us. It could not gather intel, it wasn’t going to drop a bomb or spray nerve gas, or do any of the other outlandish things bandied about in this thread. After it left our land border, I can see two valid reasons for shooting it down. Doing so might eliminate the tiny risk that it would eventually land on someone or something. Doing so might send some message to the Chinese or any other nation that might attempt to transit our airspace contrary to our wishes - it demonstrates that we can shoot down balloons. In short (too late, I know) I only cared to hear how the balloon above 60,000’ was in US jurisdiction. If there is such a thing as ‘sovereign’ airspace that isn’t identical to Controlled Airspace, I’d like to hear it specifically defined by upper and lower altitude limits. Did China's balloon violate international law? Quote: Every country has complete sovereignty and control over its waters extending 12 nautical miles (about 22 kilometres) from its land territory. Every country likewise has "complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory" under international conventions. This means each country controls all access to its airspace, which includes both commercial and government aircraft. But the upper limit of sovereign airspace is unsettled in international law. In practice, it generally extends to the maximum height at which commercial and military aircraft operate, which is around 45,000 feet (about 13.7km). The supersonic Concorde jet, however, operated at 60,000 feet (over 18km). The Chinese balloon was also reported to be operating at a distance of 60,000 feet. International law does not extend to the distance at which satellites operate, which is traditionally seen as falling within the realm of space law. .. I thought it was 200 miles from our coasts. Sounds like that's not universally settled either. It seems the US response to China is that it is in our airspace.
	Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 6th February 2023 at 07:47 PM.

6th February 2023, 11:01 PM	#218
jt512 Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,995	Originally Posted by sarge Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above. To put this mistaken notion to rest, hopefully once and for all, the balloon, which was flying between 60,000 and 65,000 feet, was in US controlled airspace. Specifically, it was in Class E controlled airspace. Per Paragraph 6-2-6.d.2 of the Aeronautical Information Manual, an official publication of the FAA: "The airspace above FL 600 [basically, 60,000 feet] is Class E airspace."
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6th February 2023, 11:56 PM	#219
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 27,636	Originally Posted by jt512 To put this mistaken notion to rest, hopefully once and for all, the balloon, which was flying between 60,000 and 65,000 feet, was in US controlled airspace. Specifically, it was in Class E controlled airspace. Per Paragraph 6-2-6.d.2 of the Aeronautical Information Manual, an official publication of the FAA: "The airspace above FL 600 [basically, 60,000 feet] is Class E airspace." That is what I said here http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8#post14002488 . But I appear to have been ignored. Mind you only one person seems to have argued it was not in something other than controlled airspace and he has not posted since I posted.
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7th February 2023, 12:48 AM	#220
jt512 Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,995	Originally Posted by rjh01 That is what I said here http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8#post14002488 . But I appear to have been ignored. Mind you only one person seems to have argued it was not in something other than controlled airspace and he has not posted since I posted. And that one person is a self-described commercial pilot, who, when I suggested he look it up for himself, said he didn't have to because he was a commercial pilot. Know-it-all people are annoying; know-it-all pilots are dangerous.
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7th February 2023, 12:58 AM	#221
erwinl Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,468	Originally Posted by jt512 And that one person is a self-described commercial pilot, who, when I suggested he look it up for himself, said he didn't have to because he was a commercial pilot. Know-it-all people are annoying; know-it-all pilots are dangerous. And as a major part of a commercial pilot's workload consists of an advanced course in checklist management, you'd think that, if there's one thing a pilot is good at, it is in looking things up.
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7th February 2023, 01:05 AM	#222
jt512 Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,995	Originally Posted by erwinl And as a major part of a commercial pilot's workload consists of an advanced course in checklist management, you'd think that, if there's one thing a pilot is good at, it is in looking things up. All I know is that I was taught in flight school that as a pilot you will always be learning. I guess sarge never got that lesson.
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7th February 2023, 02:15 AM	#223
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,587	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between. I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is. So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc. Quote: I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending. Depends where it sending them - relay satellite?
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7th February 2023, 02:24 AM	#224
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 4,036	Originally Posted by Lplus So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc. Depends where it sending them - relay satellite? Worse. Relay balloon !

7th February 2023, 02:36 AM	#225
Pixel42 Schrödinger's cat Join Date: May 2004 Location: Malmesbury, UK Posts: 15,313	Originally Posted by Lplus So it may well have had a near perfect latest snapshot of the air defence surveilance locations frequencies etc etc. Depends where it sending them - relay satellite? The recordings of the radars etc provoked by the RAF ELINT aircraft aren't sent anywhere, they're simply retrieved when they return to base. Had this balloon not been shot down its payload could similarly have been eventually retrieved.
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7th February 2023, 03:20 AM	#226
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 27,636	Originally Posted by Pixel42 The recordings of the radars etc provoked by the RAF ELINT aircraft aren't sent anywhere, they're simply retrieved when they return to base. Had this balloon not been shot down its payload could similarly have been eventually retrieved. I only hope the USA has recovered the recordings and can find out exactly what it was doing. Taking photos at certain spots? It's a spy satellite. Just taking atmospheric readings? Then it is a weather balloon. A bit simplistic, but true.
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7th February 2023, 05:08 AM	#228
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 45,043	I think it is just as much about trolling the USA. The division and discord it has created is amazing.
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7th February 2023, 06:27 AM	#229
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,546	Originally Posted by a_unique_person I think it is just as much about trolling the USA. The division and discord it has created is amazing. LOL. Name one US policy position of substantial importance to China, where US policymakers were previously united, but are now divided because of the balloon incident. Or are you just referring to some slapfight between terminally online Twitter accounts that were already neck-deep in division and discord anyway?
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7th February 2023, 08:10 AM	#230
crescent Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,316	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger These are from a few pages back and more recent. I have not read a couple of pages in between. I don't think they did. Reports are they have been following it since it crossed the Aleutian Is. I don't think it's hard to detect signals it might be sending. If true it's going to be interesting to find out the military didn't inform Trump because they couldn't be sure he wouldn't start a war over it. Maybe they will use his example and just lie, say they told him but he didn't really respond. Lots of reports this violates some international treaty. Being in low Earth orbit is exempt so satellites can function. I think the facts contradict this. Did China's balloon violate international law?I thought it was 200 miles from our coasts. Sounds like that's not universally settled either. It seems the US response to China is that it is in our airspace. My take is that airspace is just that - the space with air. As in, enough air for the object to use to stay up. A balloon floats on air, and airplane gets lift from air movement over the wings (more or less). A satellite does not depend upon air to maintain it's position and trajectory. So anywhere with air thin enough to allow things to orbit is not airspace. Anywhere with air thick enough to support a balloon or airplane is. There may be a gray area, but that would be well above the height this balloon was at. And rjh01 has repeatedly provided that cite anyway. The waters thing is clearer. 12 miles is the general limit of full national sovereignty - with exceptions based on geography such as when one nation's island is close to another nation's coast. So for example, a ship cannot pass within 12 miles of another nation's coast without permission from that nation. The 200 mile limit is the exclusive economic zone - fishing and oil production rights. It is international waters, ships can pass through it. But they can't fish or drill for oil there without permission from another nation. That's my understanding of it, anyway.

7th February 2023, 09:48 AM	#231
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,546	Originally Posted by crescent My take is that airspace is just that - the space with air. As in, enough air for the object to use to stay up. A balloon floats on air, and airplane gets lift from air movement over the wings (more or less). Seems reasonable, but I would be cautious. Compound words in English do not reliably take their definitions from the definitions of their component words. This is especially true with terms of art and technical jargon. What "airspace" means in terms of international treaties and regions of interest to national security probably does not map directly to literal "spaces with air".
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7th February 2023, 10:59 AM	#232
jt512 Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,995	Originally Posted by MRC_Hans That is forever great, but I prefer it in the original German language. The stocky German gives it just that extra dark mood. Hans I agree that the original German was better. It was also more popular than the English version in America.
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7th February 2023, 12:12 PM	#233
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,423	Originally Posted by theprestige Seems reasonable, but I would be cautious. Compound words in English do not reliably take their definitions from the definitions of their component words. This is especially true with terms of art and technical jargon. What "airspace" means in terms of international treaties and regions of interest to national security probably does not map directly to literal "spaces with air". True, but it does seem that internationally, when you get so high above sea level that the air density become so low that conventionally powered aircraft can no longer operate, is pretty much the accepted definition. However, between about 85,000 feet and 300,000 feet is a weird area where no airplanes can fly* but the little bit of air will rapidly decay a satellite orbit. *apparently a MIG made it to about 125,000 feet, but only briefly by pointing its nose up until it stalled out. 85,000 is about where an SR-71 cruised
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7th February 2023, 12:21 PM	#234
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 21,035	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 True, but it does seem that internationally, when you get so high above sea level that the air density become so low that conventionally powered aircraft can no longer operate, is pretty much the accepted definition. However, between about 85,000 feet and 300,000 feet is a weird area where no airplanes can fly* but the little bit of air will rapidly decay a satellite orbit. *apparently a MIG made it to about 125,000 feet, but only briefly by pointing its nose up until it stalled out. 85,000 is about where an SR-71 cruised In the Legal Eagle video, they referred to a possible limit of 100 km (62 mi), so that would be more than 300 000 feet, but it wasn't official. They didn't mention any other limit.
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7th February 2023, 12:44 PM	#235
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,423	Originally Posted by pgwenthold In the Legal Eagle video, they referred to a possible limit of 100 km (62 mi), so that would be more than 300 000 feet, but it wasn't official. They didn't mention any other limit. Thats the altitude of the "Karman Line". Which is an attempt to set a boundary for space. But, no such thing really exists. There is still a bit of air even at the Karman Line, thats why the ISS is quite a bit higher. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line Article quotes some other astrophysicists that think the line should be at 80km, about where its possible to keep an elliptically orbiting satellite in a stable orbit.
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7th February 2023, 12:44 PM	#236
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 93,401	The semantics of the meaning of "airspace" in this context is moot. China isn't arguing they had a right to float balloons at 60K feet. They are arguing it was a benign weather balloon.

7th February 2023, 12:57 PM	#237
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,546	And anyway I'd argue that the semantics of "airspace" above a nation's territories but below LEO are trumped by the semantics of "molon labe". No rational actor is going to claim an unfettered right to lob things over another country without warning or permission, and without that country being free to shoot it down at their convenience. Regardless of what sub-orbital altitude it flies at. Honestly if the US (or Japan, or anyone else) were to shoot down a North Korean missile test over international waters, I doubt North Korea would have a strong legal case for complaining about it.
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