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Tags donald trump , political predictions , prediction threads

View Poll Results: What are the chances that Donald Trump will end up in prison?
100% 3 3.41%
75% 5 5.68%
50% 13 14.77%
25% 16 18.18%
0% - Donald Trump has a better chance of ending up on Planet X. 51 57.95%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10th July 2019, 06:51 PM   #1
shemp
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What are the chances that Donald Trump will end up in prison?

I sure hope it's 100%. I want to see him end up in prison and die there broken and bankrupt. I want to live to dance upon his grave.
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Old 10th July 2019, 06:52 PM   #2
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Did you mean to post this in FC?
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Old 10th July 2019, 06:53 PM   #3
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Nope.
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Old 10th July 2019, 06:54 PM   #4
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Statistically non-existent.
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Old 10th July 2019, 06:55 PM   #5
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Well vote that way then. I want to know what the denizens of this sub-forum think.
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Old 10th July 2019, 07:09 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Well vote that way then. I want to know what the denizens of this sub-forum think.
I'm gonna say 33.3% but without access to the relevant Everett branchesWP I'm not sure how to resolve this.
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Old 10th July 2019, 07:09 PM   #7
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If by "prison" you would include a "home for old criminals who are now terminally bewildered" then ... 50% ... maybe.
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Old 10th July 2019, 07:43 PM   #8
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Chances are very weak he'll go to prison. He's the embodiment of White Privilege, the poster boy of the Oligarchs. If the financial elite cannot be incarcerated, their boy can't.
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Old 10th July 2019, 07:49 PM   #9
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I don't want Trump to go to prison, unless the sexual assault or treason charges are true.

I want him to be fined most of his money, the thing he cherishes most.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:05 PM   #10
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0%. Dead before any SHTF scenario.

ETA: "SHTF" stands for "shemp humps the ****" in this case.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:14 PM   #11
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0%

Not because he hasn't committed the crime(s), but because of who he is. The rich generally don't go to jail and ex-presidents even more so.

For the sake of the country, I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:24 PM   #12
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There is no chance that the legal system would ever put him in prison. Even if there was a prospect, he would be pardoned.

The only hope is a French style revolution and even then, he would more likely be guillotined.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:27 PM   #13
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Apparently nobody yet shares my optimism. THINK POSITIVE!
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:53 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Apparently nobody yet shares my optimism. THINK POSITIVE!
Why waste your time and emotional energy hating just one man. Don't you think that some of your 62,984,828 fellow Americans should also share in the punishment?
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Old 10th July 2019, 09:36 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
There is no chance that the legal system would ever put him in prison. Even if there was a prospect, he would be pardoned.

The only hope is a French style revolution and even then, he would more likely be guillotined.
Yeah.

If an angry crowd wanted to snatch Trump to dish out some extra-judicial punishment, I'd probably turn my gun at the crowd.

I'd rather he face no prison than give some bloodthirsty mob of Trump opponents license to do whatever they wanted.
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Old 10th July 2019, 10:05 PM   #16
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There is one reason why Trump might very well end up in jail: lack of money.

There are indication that the Epstein case is coming up now because he is running out of funds to pay people off with.
All this life, Trump has been able avoid being found guilty by drowning the opposition in lawsuits and then going for a settlement. The moment he can't afford to do so anymore, but is still seen has having something of value, lots of people might come out of the woodwork to take his last shirt.
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:15 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
There is one reason why Trump might very well end up in jail: lack of money.

There are indication that the Epstein case is coming up now because he is running out of funds to pay people off with.
All this life, Trump has been able avoid being found guilty by drowning the opposition in lawsuits and then going for a settlement. The moment he can't afford to do so anymore, but is still seen has having something of value, lots of people might come out of the woodwork to take his last shirt.
Interesting supposition. I wonder if there would be some critical mass such that as he became more unpopular would there be a point past which his unpopularity dramatically accelerated his financial demise, i.e. would people not want to live in or play golf at properties associated with the name Trump.

Personally, I’d be surprised if it happened as you suggest.

Neither President Trump nor his nepotistic gang may go to jail, but i’d love to see enough evidence come to light that Don Jr. were frog-marched past cameras before eventually being pardoned. Or Ivanka’s husband, Leaky McSmarmyface.
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:23 AM   #18
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I have a strong feeling he may be too far gone to be sent to jail when that time comes. Already he seems to be losing his grip. It would be great, of course

Now, if he was to be completely and utterly dishonoured, abandoned by all his friends and allies, and stripped of his fortunes, with the Trump brand name dragged through the mud? I'd be okay with that.

Edit: I wonder what the trumpkins would do. It's as if they can't fathom that there will be a time after Trump, where people will have moved on and they will have to live with shamelessly and blindly supporting and excusing everything he's said and done. I picture their grandkids sitting on their laps asking what they were doing when that terrible Trump guy they've heard about was president. Are they supposed to say, "erm, well, actually, I wore a red cap with a campaign slogan and sat on Internet forums trolling and posting whataboutisms whenever people criticised him"?
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:34 AM   #19
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The most likely scenario for putting Trump behind bars is that his kids will have him committed to a mental institution the moment they realize that he will gamble away their inheritance.
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:46 AM   #20
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I'm going with zero.

Charging a current or ex-President with anything would be politically very difficult. It would set a precedent and every future Democratic Party President could look forward to criminal charges brought by a compliant GOP state. I don't think charges will even be brought.

Looking at the range of crimes that President Trump has been accused of, most of them fall into the "white collar" category and even if convicted is unlikely to result in jail time.

The sexual assault claims seem to not get any form of traction. Sure Bill Cosby was eventually brought to justice but he was only a popular actor and comedian, not a current or ex-President.
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:51 AM   #21
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Probably because I'm Canadian I find myself straddling the fence. The hopeful and optimistic half of me can see all the past and present crap surrounding this scumbag coming home to roost with a criminal conviction and jail time. But the pessimistic realist sees all too clearly the privelege accorded the rich white class.

My strongly held convictions on matters of right and wrong and justice induce terrible rage when the monied class buys itself out of trouble. I hope the SDNY sticks to its guns and goes after the Trump clan but good.
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Old 11th July 2019, 01:56 AM   #22
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How many billionaires are incarcerated in the US?
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Old 11th July 2019, 02:02 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
How many billionaires are incarcerated in the US?
how is that question relevant to the topic of this thread?
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Old 11th July 2019, 04:43 AM   #24
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Fantasizing is all that Dems seem to have around here anymore
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Old 11th July 2019, 04:46 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
how is that question relevant to the topic of this thread?

Good point, well made.
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Old 11th July 2019, 05:39 AM   #26
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BTW if Trump is re-elected in 2020, the odds of one of his political opponents winding up in prison by the end of his second term is about... 1 in 10 I'd say.
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Old 11th July 2019, 05:49 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'm gonna say 33.3% but without access to the relevant Everett branchesWP I'm not sure how to resolve this.
Your link doesn't work in this world. Maybe wikipedia is different in your branch?
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Old 11th July 2019, 05:53 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Edit: I wonder what the trumpkins would do. It's as if they can't fathom that there will be a time after Trump, where people will have moved on and they will have to live with shamelessly and blindly supporting and excusing everything he's said and done. I picture their grandkids sitting on their laps asking what they were doing when that terrible Trump guy they've heard about was president. Are they supposed to say, "erm, well, actually, I wore a red cap with a campaign slogan and sat on Internet forums trolling and posting whataboutisms whenever people criticised him"?
Going by the photos at Trump rallies, I'd wager that most of their grandchildren are already grown by now. I don't think the majority of Trump supporters will have a decade or more to live to regret their decisions.
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:06 AM   #29
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Non-zero but way less than 25%.
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:18 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Fantasizing is all that Dems seem to have around here anymore
You don't actually read the words people write, do you?



...and now I see the futility of this post.
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:19 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Your link doesn't work in this world. Maybe wikipedia is different in your branch?
Oh balls.

https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Everett_branch
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:43 AM   #32
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100%, if we include prisons for the criminally insane.

Capone ended as a drooling paretic. Was he in stir, or in a nice home with bars?
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:45 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
100%, if we include prisons for the criminally insane.

Capone ended as a drooling paretic. Was he in stir, or in a nice home with bars?
He did time at Alcatraz then died in his home in florida.
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Old 11th July 2019, 07:48 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm going with zero.

Charging a current or ex-President with anything would be politically very difficult. It would set a precedent and every future Democratic Party President could look forward to criminal charges brought by a compliant GOP state. I don't think charges will even be brought.
They have already been trying to find anything they can possibly spin into such crimes for decades. You think if Clinton committed half the crimes we know Trump has that he wouldn't have been impeached, convicted and then criminally charged and convicted?

Republicans are there, they are the ones saying that issuing illegal orders and following those orders is not a crime, and that all laws are subject to if the president cares about them.

I mean lying on a security clearance document is a felony and we know Jared did that repeatedly and got caught, but of course charging the man who has the vision for peace in the middle east and the end of the opioid crisis is not politically viable.

We just have to stop pretending Nixon wasn't right when he said "when the president does it, its legal" and really accept that he was just a basic politician in the new mold and not some kind of criminal just because he was violating laws.
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Old 11th July 2019, 07:50 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
There is no chance that the legal system would ever put him in prison. Even if there was a prospect, he would be pardoned.

The only hope is a French style revolution and even then, he would more likely be guillotined.
Not if he's convicted by the state of NY. Or, federally and the next president is a democrat.
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Old 11th July 2019, 07:55 AM   #36
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Sadly here's how I see it playing out, even under the best case scenario.

Under our current landscape:

- It's impossible to impeach a sitting President without a majority in the Senate.
- There's no other other politically viable way to remove a sitting President.

So Trump is untouchable while he's in office.

Once he leaves office there's gonna be a LOT of talk and bluster about "going after him" but... that's not gonna happen.

Once he's out of office the immediate threat is gone. At that point it's punishment, not threat mitigation. Going after Trump then is going to be a harder sell. Yes a lot of people will argue (and they won't even be wrong in my opinion) that Trump needs to be punished, but it become a back-burner issue.

And everyone knows if we punish a sitting or recently departed Republican President, that's it. We're done. The Republicans will to save face try to take down the next Democratic President. Their honor will demand it.

There's already too much chatter that frames this in the "Oh so the Republicans got impeach Clinton for a blowjob but we can't..." which, deny it all you want, makes this sound like politically motivated revenge.

Impeachments, indictments, investigations... those are running the risk of just becoming standard tools of politics like the filibuster and the government shutdowns if we're not careful. Does anyone really want to see that?
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Old 11th July 2019, 07:59 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why waste your time and emotional energy hating just one man. Don't you think that some of your 62,984,828 fellow Americans should also share in the punishment?
Your numbers are a bit off.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:03 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Sadly here's how I see it playing out, even under the best case scenario.

Under our current landscape:

- It's impossible to impeach a sitting President without a majority in the Senate.
- There's no other other politically viable way to remove a sitting President.

So Trump is untouchable while he's in office.

Once he leaves office there's gonna be a LOT of talk and bluster about "going after him" but... that's not gonna happen.

Once he's out of office the immediate threat is gone. At that point it's punishment, not threat mitigation. Going after Trump then is going to be a harder sell. Yes a lot of people will argue (and they won't even be wrong in my opinion) that Trump needs to be punished, but it become a back-burner issue.

And everyone know if we punish a sitting or recently departed Republican President, that's it. We're done. The Republicans will to save face try to take down the next Democratic President. Their honor will demand it.

There's already too much chatter that frames this in the "Oh so the Republicans got impeach Clinton for a blowjob but we can't..." which, deny it all you want, makes this sound like politically motivated revenge.

Impeachments, indictments, those are running the risk of just becoming standard tools of politics like the filibuster and the government shutdowns if we're not careful. Does anyone really want to see that?
The Republicans are going to attempt to destroy every non-Republican president anyway, no matter what happens or doesn't happen. So why bother playing nice with them? It doesn't inspire reciprocal niceness. Give them an inch and they'll sell it to Russia while complaining that they should have received a thousand miles and a tax break as well.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:07 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The Republicans are going to attempt to destroy every non-Republican president anyway, no matter what happens or doesn't happen. So why bother playing nice with them? It doesn't inspire reciprocal niceness. Give them an inch and they'll sell it to Russia while complaining that they should have received a thousand miles and a tax break as well.
Exactly that has been the republican game plan for decades. Why is the republicans doing what they have been supposed to be a threat?
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:10 AM   #40
JoeMorgue
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The Republicans are going to attempt to destroy every non-Republican president anyway, no matter what happens or doesn't happen. So why bother playing nice with them? It doesn't inspire reciprocal niceness. Give them an inch and they'll sell it to Russia while complaining that they should have received a thousand miles and a tax break as well.
I think it is dangerous, very dangerous, to assume the Republicans don't have their own image to worry about. Yes they will within a metaphysical screw with the next Democratic President regardless, but how they will do is up in the air and that "how" matters more then you'd think.

Especially since right now the Dems are trying to find a way to take out Trump without the normal channels that require a majority. Any such actions are not a genie that will politely go back in the bottle.

Do you want to hand a future Republican minority lead Senate the means to take out a sitting Democratic President? Or a future 5-4 Conservative minority Supreme Court the same?

Again... "It can't get any worse" has pretty much literally never not being proven wrong.

Alls I'm saying is right now the Democrats are straining at the seems to find a way to take out Trump without a majority/political power in the places that are supposed to keep a President in line; mainly the Senate and SCOTUS. Such territory is not well mapped and should be trodden on lightly.
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