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View Poll Results: Democrat lessons for losing '22 midterms?
Far left social agendas suck! 7 41.18%
Stick to populist economics. 3 17.65%
Abortion, abortion, abortion!!! 7 41.18%
Blue lives do actually matter. 0 0%
Voters: 17. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 3rd November 2022, 07:54 AM   #121
ahhell
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Maybe a way of putting it is that the Democrats need to stop assuming an informed electorate driven primarily by reason and the big picture.

I don't mean that as an insult to the electorate. The world is vast and confusing and to expect the average person to consider abstract and nuanced positions while they are trying to put food on the table and quell their own natural anxiety over their lives is unrealistic.

Which might be a good way to explain my growing contempt for the people steering this ship.
How exactly is the economy not the big picture? Pretty much every election the the Dems point and yell racist or scare the old people about the Republicans attacking social security, any one remember Biden calling various election reforms over the last 2 years, jim crow on steroids. These are not appeals to reason.

Edit, none of that is a defense of the Repubs, they don't appeal to reason either. I am just continually amazed at the image dems have of their leaders and themselves as these high minded nobles fighting the could fight by appealing to human reason and nobility against those dirty Repubs who appeal to our base natures. FYI, Repubs say very similar things. They think they have polices based in reason while dems only talk about good feelings and scare the minorities and old people.

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Old 3rd November 2022, 09:46 AM   #122
lobosrul5
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
How exactly is the economy not the big picture? Pretty much every election the the Dems point and yell racist or scare the old people about the Republicans attacking social security, any one remember Biden calling various election reforms over the last 2 years, jim crow on steroids. These are not appeals to reason.

Edit, none of that is a defense of the Repubs, they don't appeal to reason either. I am just continually amazed at the image dems have of their leaders and themselves as these high minded nobles fighting the could fight by appealing to human reason and nobility against those dirty Repubs who appeal to our base natures. FYI, Repubs say very similar things. They think they have polices based in reason while dems only talk about good feelings and scare the minorities and old people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/u...-medicare.html

Is it really an appeal to emotion when Republican lawmakers have literally said they want to cutback on SS and Medicare
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Old 3rd November 2022, 01:11 PM   #123
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The big plan is to keep people working and poor till they die. No need for social security. If you give them that, they will go part time not full time.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 01:14 PM   #124
ahhell
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/u...-medicare.html

Is it really an appeal to emotion when Republican lawmakers have literally said they want to cutback on SS and Medicare
Can't read the article on account of the pay wall, but considering that they have been accused of such for floating legislation that while literally say it won't effect social security and medicare, I have my doubts.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 01:34 PM   #125
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Interesting thread. But what would be the Democrat lessons for when they win the mid-terms?
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Old 3rd November 2022, 02:07 PM   #126
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...back far-right extremists in Republican primaries...?
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Old 3rd November 2022, 02:17 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Can't read the article on account of the pay wall, but considering that they have been accused of such for floating legislation that while literally say it won't effect social security and medicare, I have my doubts.
Well, heres the official document:

https://waysandmeans.house.gov/sites...alSecurity.pdf

"Raise the retirement age to people born after 1975"

Of course its always **** over the younger generation... **** those mother ******* mother ******* sideways with a rusty ******* knife.... is how I feel since I was born after 1975.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 02:24 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Interesting thread. But what would be the Democrat lessons for when they win the mid-terms?
That will be the lesson in 2026.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 07:02 PM   #129
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Ruy Texiera points out that they might want to reconsider their approach to Hispanics:

Quote:
In 2020, the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points relative to 2016. On the eve of the 2022 election, that advantage is set to decline substantially once again.

This is obviously bad for the Democrats’ immediate electoral prospects. But it also cuts the ground out from under their leading electoral theory of the case: that the “rising American electorate”, with a starring role for the burgeoning ranks of minority voters, will deliver them victories in the future. It is overwhelmingly Hispanics who are driving the increase in the nonwhite population and if they continue moving toward the GOP—as they are and in a big way—the whole theory falls apart.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced a litany of liberal causes around race and other issues that are dear to the hearts of Democratic activists. This was a flawed assumption. In reality, Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly an upwardly mobile, patriotic population with practical and down to earth concerns focused on jobs, the economy, health care, effective schools and public safety.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 10:47 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
If Biden is out, Harris is out.
i hope you are right.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 11:02 PM   #131
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I figure Harris is already out anyway. There's a reason why nobody's seen or heard anything from her in months.
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Old 3rd November 2022, 11:17 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
I figure Harris is already out anyway. There's a reason why nobody's seen or heard anything from her in months.
I don't think Harris thinks so: the SOP for a VP is not to make waves or cause scandals in the four years they "get valuable governing experience".
Harris is doing everything right to increase her chances of winning a future nomination - which are slim to begin with.

her problem is, of course, that, historically, VPs very rarely become Presidents unless POTUS dies in Office.
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Old 4th November 2022, 12:03 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Ruy Texiera points out that they might want to reconsider their approach to Hispanics:
Many Hispanics, mainly Cubans and Venezuelans, are very anti-communist/socialist. They respond positively to the GOP "socialistcommielibtard" rhetoric.
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Old 4th November 2022, 01:17 AM   #134
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It always seems to be about the economy. If people believe the economy is doing well, then the president gets the credit. If they believe it's doing poorly, then the president is to blame. It's amazing how much mileage Trump gets out of saying, "When I was president, gas prices were X. Now they're X + Y." So, yeah, presidents are also responsible for low and high gas prices.

I wonder if Trump will announce on election day that he's running for president again. Or maybe he'll wait until January 3rd. There were reports that his legal advisors suggested running before the Mar-a-Lago raid in order to frustrate the DOJ from investigating a rival political candidate. They're probably going to have to appoint special counsel when he formally declares.

Like the rule about a Democrat not being allowed to nominate a Supreme Court Justice in an election year, maybe there's a rule that they can't investigate a political rival the year before an election year (especially since the year before an election year is basically an election year). This would fit nicely with the rule about protecting sensitive documents that could have been stolen/hacked from a private server when they should have been safely stored some place -- like a Florida resort.
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Old 4th November 2022, 07:50 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
It always seems to be about the economy. If people believe the economy is doing well, then the president gets the credit. If they believe it's doing poorly, then the president is to blame. It's amazing how much mileage Trump gets out of saying, "When I was president, gas prices were X. Now they're X + Y." So, yeah, presidents are also responsible for low and high gas prices.

I wonder if Trump will announce on election day that he's running for president again. Or maybe he'll wait until January 3rd. There were reports that his legal advisors suggested running before the Mar-a-Lago raid in order to frustrate the DOJ from investigating a rival political candidate. They're probably going to have to appoint special counsel when he formally declares.

Like the rule about a Democrat not being allowed to nominate a Supreme Court Justice in an election year, maybe there's a rule that they can't investigate a political rival the year before an election year (especially since the year before an election year is basically an election year). This would fit nicely with the rule about protecting sensitive documents that could have been stolen/hacked from a private server when they should have been safely stored some place -- like a Florida resort.
That was Clinton's line after all, its about the economy stupid. There are a couple of things on the midterms that are really to blame.
A. The presidents party always looses seats.
B. Americans blame the president for the economy for good and bad even though he has only limited impact and what impact the Pres has on the economy is mostly delayed by years. So, in bad economies the presidents party gets it really bad, in good economies they get it less bad. I think there was maybe one midterm in the last 30 years where the presidents party didn't loose seats.

In this case, some of the inflation is the fault of law makers and the president but you can't limit that to either party.

Anyrate, the Dems left will claim they lost because they didn't go left enough and the dems right will blame the lefts taking it too far. I tend to agree more with the center/right but neither is really true except at margins.

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Old 4th November 2022, 08:10 AM   #136
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The Dems demise just might be overstated according to New Mexico exit polls for early voting. The GoP governor candidate was actually up a point in a recent telephone poll... early voting numbers paint a very different picture.

170,000 votes so far for Dems, to 110,000 for the GoP. With 38,000 decling to answer, and about 3,000 3rd party. Thats already about half of the people expected to vote in total. We make early voting very easy, I had to wait in line last Saturday for about 5 minutes for example.

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-g...oting-numbers/

Hopefully things go this way nationwide and we aren't an aberration.
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Old 4th November 2022, 08:24 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
The Dems demise just might be overstated according to New Mexico exit polls for early voting. The GoP governor candidate was actually up a point in a recent telephone poll... early voting numbers paint a very different picture.

170,000 votes so far for Dems, to 110,000 for the GoP. With 38,000 decling to answer, and about 3,000 3rd party. Thats already about half of the people expected to vote in total. We make early voting very easy, I had to wait in line last Saturday for about 5 minutes for example.

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-g...oting-numbers/

Hopefully things go this way nationwide and we aren't an aberration.
You're forgetting that many GOP candidates are urging their supporters to vote on Election Day. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories (and as it happens I'm mostly voting (D) this year), but I do greatly prefer voting in person.
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Old 4th November 2022, 08:32 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
You're forgetting that many GOP candidates are urging their supporters to vote on Election Day. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories (and as it happens I'm mostly voting (D) this year), but I do greatly prefer voting in person.
Ahh, we actually have official tallies, not exit polls, on whose voted so far by party.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NM.html

Total voted so far: 788,170... that is already more people than voted in the last mid-term! And 85% as many as voted in 2020. More republicans voted in in-person sites, but dems far outnumber them in mail-in ballots.

So far,

I'm clicking around (TX, GA, OH), and I don't see any other states that have released numbers via part.

ETA: oops, those numbers are from 2020.

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Old 4th November 2022, 09:15 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post

her problem is, of course, that, historically, VPs very rarely become Presidents unless POTUS dies in Office.
Really? Three out of the eleven presidents that have served in my lifetime, including the current one, fit that description (Nixon, Bush Sr., Biden).

If you count VPs who initially got the job by POTUS dying, but later went on to win an election on their own, that number goes up to four (Johnson). Gore made a decent run of it, too.

It's been said that the Veep job is a reputation ratchet: one gets little chance to make a name for oneself as a leader, but gets plenty of chances to have one's name connected to your boss' failures. Ask Mondale. So while the VP job is hardly a shoe-in for the Presidency, and may in some cases be a net liability, I'm not sure I can reconcile your characterization of "very rarely".

I share your dim view of Kamala Harris' prospects at this point (although a lot can change in two years). However, the fact that she is VP has little to do with that.
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Old 4th November 2022, 09:30 AM   #140
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Only Bush Sr immediately succeeded the POTUS he served under. Nixon lost to Kennedy immediately following Eisenhauer. Biden declined to run in 2016.

That said, the "rules" about presidential cycles are just observations, not actual laws of nature. Maybe Biden could have won in 2016. Maybe Nicon beats Kennedy if they didn't have a televised debate. The reality is the sample size is way too small to say "the president's party always loses in the midterms" or "the VP usually fails to succeed their president" as if they were gravity.

There are definitely things we can learn from these observations, but I think the conclusions that have been widely accepted are really self fulfilling prophecies.
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Old 4th November 2022, 06:43 PM   #141
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Lesson #1 from the Dem's loss on Tuesday: don't mock and belittle and disregard the public's fears about safety & security.
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Old 5th November 2022, 04:18 PM   #142
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1) no candidate is mocking concerns about "safety and security"

2) those concerns are not valid.
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Old 5th November 2022, 06:26 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
1) no candidate is mocking concerns about "safety and security"

2) those concerns are not valid.
So dismissing concerns then?
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Old 6th November 2022, 03:19 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Lesson #1 from the Dem's loss on Tuesday: don't mock and belittle and disregard the public's fears about safety & security.
Counterpoint: Trump
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Old 6th November 2022, 06:44 AM   #145
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Yes @Donal, several Democrat candidates have disregarded the peoples' concerns about crime. They claim its all just the Republicans engaging in fear-mongering, and therefore the concerns are not valid.

Its not the peoples' fault the the MSM keeps constantly reminding the nation about the daily crime events in our cities, more sick and twisted by the day. That's not the GOP's fault. Is the MSM trying to make the people focus on crime in this election? Maybe so.
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Old 6th November 2022, 08:02 AM   #146
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Choice between being Shot in the Head or...

Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Yes @Donal, several Democrat candidates have disregarded the peoples' concerns about crime. They claim its all just the Republicans engaging in fear-mongering, and therefore the concerns are not valid.

Its not the peoples' fault the the MSM keeps constantly reminding the nation about the daily crime events in our cities, more sick and twisted by the day. That's not the GOP's fault. Is the MSM trying to make the people focus on crime in this election? Maybe so.

In a sane world all those points would be valid contention points to argue about.

But in this reality that we are in now... it is a choice between choosing INSANITY to rule over us or albeit very faulty but SANE people to rule over us.

Any SANE person will not hesitate for a second to choose SANITY regardless of any other issues.

Any person who makes any of those issues sway them to vote for INSANITY have already decided to vote for INSANITY anyway and are just looking for excuses to tell themselves that they are not the most grotesque sordid pernicious dastards... if not insane to boot.

Choosing between the current republicans and current democrats is like choosing to be shot in the head or having dog feces smeared all over one's face.

I can wash the feces off later... but I cannot perform surgery on my skull while I am dead.





.
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Old 6th November 2022, 08:15 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Lesson #1 from the Dem's loss on Tuesday: don't mock and belittle and disregard the public's fears about safety & security.

If this ******* public had any functioning grey cells they would know or remember this...
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. In the 1920s and early 1930s, he sympathized with many Nazi ideas and supported radically right-wing political movements. But after Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler’s interference in the Protestant Church. He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule, from 1937 to 1945, in Nazi prisons and concentration camps.
Originally Posted by Martin Niemöller
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
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Old 6th November 2022, 11:43 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Leumas View Post
If this ******* public had any functioning grey cells they would know or remember this...
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. In the 1920s and early 1930s, he sympathized with many Nazi ideas and supported radically right-wing political movements. But after Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler’s interference in the Protestant Church. He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule, from 1937 to 1945, in Nazi prisons and concentration camps.
I think you're right. I wonder how much of the public is actually thinking about politics at this level. Probably for them low gas prices and a good economy, whatever that means, is worth almost any cost.
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Old 6th November 2022, 11:53 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by Leumas View Post
If this ******* public had any functioning grey cells they would know or remember this...
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. In the 1920s and early 1930s, he sympathized with many Nazi ideas and supported radically right-wing political movements. But after Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler’s interference in the Protestant Church. He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule, from 1937 to 1945, in Nazi prisons and concentration camps.
So the lesson the Democrats need to learn from 2022 is that they need to use the Nazi comparisons more often?
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Old 6th November 2022, 12:56 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Yes @Donal, several Democrat candidates have disregarded the peoples' concerns about crime. They claim its all just the Republicans engaging in fear-mongering, and therefore the concerns are not valid.

Its not the peoples' fault the the MSM keeps constantly reminding the nation about the daily crime events in our cities, more sick and twisted by the day. That's not the GOP's fault. Is the MSM trying to make the people focus on crime in this election? Maybe so.
The whole crime epidemic is pushed by dishonest politicians to scare dumb people into voting for them and by media because it gets engagement.

https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud...me/crime-trend

Set the Trend parameters from 1990 to 2021 for all violent crime. Crime rates have been more or less stable for the last decade and are less than 20 or 30 years ago.
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Old 6th November 2022, 02:05 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So the lesson the Democrats need to learn from 2022 is that they need to use the Nazi comparisons more often?

Yes... because many of the MAGA supporters are in fact literal NAZIs brandishing swasticas.

And yes ... because MAGA is a fascistic theocratic racist bigoted segregational hate mongering cult.

And yes again... because he who does not remember history is doomed to repeat it.

And yes because Insanity will only lead to disasters.
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Old 6th November 2022, 02:10 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
The whole crime epidemic is pushed by dishonest politicians to scare dumb people into voting for them and by media because it gets engagement.

https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud...me/crime-trend

Set the Trend parameters from 1990 to 2021 for all violent crime. Crime rates have been more or less stable for the last decade and are less than 20 or 30 years ago.

And do not forget that the media are tools owned by the very same corporations who are owners of the very same republicans and who will benefit most when they are in power again like they did every time they were.
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Old 6th November 2022, 03:07 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by Leumas View Post
If this ******* public had any functioning grey cells they would know or remember this...
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. In the 1920s and early 1930s, he sympathized with many Nazi ideas and supported radically right-wing political movements. But after Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler’s interference in the Protestant Church. He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule, from 1937 to 1945, in Nazi prisons and concentration camps.
Which has NOTHING to do with my comment that you quoted. Crime in many cities reminds people of the late 80s and that's not a good place to be.
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Old 6th November 2022, 06:46 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by Leumas View Post
Yes... because many of the MAGA supporters are in fact literal NAZIs brandishing swasticas.

And yes ... because MAGA is a fascistic theocratic racist bigoted segregational hate mongering cult.

And yes again... because he who does not remember history is doomed to repeat it.

And yes because Insanity will only lead to disasters.
So same lesson for the debacle of 2024 then? Here's a little PoliSci 101; running as "we're not those guys," only works when you are the party out of power, which is why it is working like gangbusters for the GOP this year. Keep in mind when I say that, that I am voting basically straight (D) this year and have not and will not vote for Trump, ever.
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Old 7th November 2022, 12:11 AM   #155
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The main reason the Dems are in such trouble can be summed up in one word:Inflation.
That is what is killing the Democrats. WHen there are economic woes, the party in power always take the heat.
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Old 7th November 2022, 12:14 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So same lesson for the debacle of 2024 then? Here's a little PoliSci 101; running as "we're not those guys," only works when you are the party out of power, which is why it is working like gangbusters for the GOP this year. Keep in mind when I say that, that I am voting basically straight (D) this year and have not and will not vote for Trump, ever.
DO you think if the GOP wins big on Tuesday,that within a year we will have a huge case of Buyers remorse.
IMHO McCarthy is a weak leader, and will allow the crazy wing fo the GOP in the ourse to run wild.
I am also predicting a three way race in 2024.I think a strong indepdent candidate will arise.
And do you think this country is on the verge of seeing the end of Democracy and possible Civil War ?
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Last edited by dudalb; 7th November 2022 at 12:15 AM.
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Old 7th November 2022, 01:50 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
DO you think if the GOP wins big on Tuesday,that within a year we will have a huge case of Buyers remorse.
IMHO McCarthy is a weak leader, and will allow the crazy wing fo the GOP in the ourse to run wild.
I am also predicting a three way race in 2024.I think a strong indepdent candidate will arise.
And do you think this country is on the verge of seeing the end of Democracy and possible Civil War ?
There will be no buyer's remorse IMO. The well off are insulated from the crazy.
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Old 7th November 2022, 02:20 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Ruy Texiera points out that they might want to reconsider their approach to Hispanics:
I never knew that hating on others and kicking the ladder away behind you was "patriotism". Of course Hispanics voting republican is turkeys voting for christmas.
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Old 7th November 2022, 03:17 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Lesson #1 from the Dem's loss on Tuesday: don't mock and belittle and disregard the public's fears about safety & security.
What do you mean by this? Democrats have been parrotting republican "law and order"* talking points for years.

* What's actually meant by this phrase is keep the minorities down. "Law and order" has everything to do with order (in a totalitarian sense) and nothing to do with law.
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Old 7th November 2022, 03:29 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So same lesson for the debacle of 2024 then? Here's a little PoliSci 101; running as "we're not those guys," only works when you are the party out of power, which is why it is working like gangbusters for the GOP this year. Keep in mind when I say that, that I am voting basically straight (D) this year and have not and will not vote for Trump, ever.

The Democratic Party has been operating in the last two years as if they are not the party in power... with bloody Manchin and Sinema in the senate the republicans might as well have been in control... and with the rest of them only paying lip service to being democrats anyways.

And with the SCOTUS being fully corrupted already and most of the rest of the lower circuit circuses only dissimulating being real judges... it is a train wreck.

So they need to be running on that current disastrous state of the union ... or else there will be no union left to talk about soon.
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