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Tags Canada elections , Canada politics , Elizabeth May , justin trudeau , Thomas Mulcair

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Old 6th June 2018, 03:39 PM   #401
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At this point, I'm hoping (forlornly?) for an NDP minority. The PCs need to be slapped down for the way they've handled this election, while a minority NDP government probably won't be able to enact everything they've talked about, which is probably a good thing.

Maybe in another two years, when it all falls apart, we'll get some candidates who aren't a complete disaster.

And I have to say, I've gotten more political phone calls in the last two days then I ever have before in an election.....
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Old 6th June 2018, 07:36 PM   #402
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
At this point, I'm hoping (forlornly?) for an NDP minority. The PCs need to be slapped down for the way they've handled this election, while a minority NDP government probably won't be able to enact everything they've talked about, which is probably a good thing.
While I'm not totally opposed to a minority government, there are 2 problems:

- It gives a lot of power to the Liberals, who will hold the balance of power

- Its possible that whatever 'rules' are passed, the 2 larger parties will still try to outdo each other with their spending.
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Old 6th June 2018, 07:48 PM   #403
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Conflicting Election polls released today for the Ontario election:

From: https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/o...d-pc-majority/
With less than 24 hours until Ontarians head to the polls, Doug Ford is on track to become the next premier of Canada’s most populous province. The final Ipsos poll of the campaign, conducted between June 3 and 5, points to a three-point Progressive Conservative lead province-wide and a double-digit lead in the 905.

From: https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the...-photo-finish/
They’re all tied up, 38-38-17. That’s how the major Ontario political parties stack up on the day before the final vote in a historic provincial election, according to the final instalment of a Pollara Strategic Insights tracking poll for Maclean’s.

There are 2 points:
- Although the conservatives lead in one poll, the difference between the polls is probably within the margin of error

- Supposedly even if the 2 are tied in the popular vote, the Conservatives have a better chance at getting a majority because of the way their support is distributed (broad support in the 905/suburban Toronto area, instead of having a bigger amount of support in a smaller number of ridings.)
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Old 7th June 2018, 03:19 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
At this point, I'm hoping (forlornly?) for an NDP minority. The PCs need to be slapped down for the way they've handled this election, while a minority NDP government probably won't be able to enact everything they've talked about, which is probably a good thing.

Maybe in another two years, when it all falls apart, we'll get some candidates who aren't a complete disaster.

And I have to say, I've gotten more political phone calls in the last two days then I ever have before in an election.....
Has the NDP managed to get rid of the 9/11 Truthers within it's ranks?
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Old 7th June 2018, 05:18 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Has the NDP managed to get rid of the 9/11 Truthers within it's ranks?


Haven't heard of any lately, and with the way the PCs were targeting every questionable thing any of them have said over the last decade for the last few weeks of the campaign, I suspect they would have had a field day if they'd found one who was a Truther.
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Old 8th June 2018, 10:03 AM   #406
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
At this point, I'm hoping (forlornly?) for an NDP minority. The PCs need to be slapped down for the way they've handled this election, while a minority NDP government probably won't be able to enact everything they've talked about, which is probably a good thing.
For better or worse, looks like we have a Conservative Majority government in Ontario

Results:
- 76 seats for the conservatives (41% of the popular vote)
- 40 seats for the NDP (34% of the popular vote)
- 7 seats for the Liberals. This means that they lose official party status (19% of the popular vote)
- 1 seat for the Green party (5% of the popular vote)

This supposedly was the first election that used electronic vote tabulation in Ontario.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/5-ways...tory-1.3965277

I wonder what happened to the NDP support. Granted, our first-past-the-post system can amplify small differences in voting percentage, but the NDP were in pretty much a statistical tie with the conservatives in popular support a couple of days ago. Maybe its due to conservatives being better oriented to actually go to the polls.
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Old 8th June 2018, 11:49 AM   #407
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I wonder what happened to the NDP support. Granted, our first-past-the-post system can amplify small differences in voting percentage, but the NDP were in pretty much a statistical tie with the conservatives in popular support a couple of days ago. Maybe its due to conservatives being better oriented to actually go to the polls.

It's weird. The numbers for the Liberals and Greens were pretty much what you'd expect based on the recent polling, but both the NDP and PCs were off, with the PCs gaining several points. If turnout was down among left voters, you'd expect the Liberals to take the bigger hit on that, having essentially given up on the election.

I guess when the chips were down, a lot of people who, like me, were planning on jumping from PC to NDP, didn't actually do that.
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Old 8th June 2018, 12:03 PM   #408
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Looks as though the NDP's attempts to distance themselves from their more extreme elements did not work very well....
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Old 8th June 2018, 12:55 PM   #409
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Looks as though the NDP's attempts to distance themselves from their more extreme elements did not work very well....
I don't know... I don't think they did that bad. When from 3rd party to official opposition status. And vote-wise they went up by 10% (pretty much the same amount the conservatives did.)

Reasons for the conservative victory?

- Could just be a case of the conservatives starting from a better position

- Similarity between Liberals and NDP policies (i.e. "how can we tax and spend more? Unions are our friends!") means that if anyone actually wanted an alternative they had to vote conservative

- Conservatives attract older voters, who are often more reliable voters

- Sexism
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Old 8th June 2018, 01:03 PM   #410
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BTW what chance does Trudeau have of picking up some popularit points by standing up to Trumo this weekend, since few Canadians of any political stripe like Trump.
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Old 8th June 2018, 01:18 PM   #411
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
BTW what chance does Trudeau have of picking up some popularit points by standing up to Trumo this weekend, since few Canadians of any political stripe like Trump.
If he actually stands up to Trump it may gain him some points. Trudeau is often viewed as an intellection light weight/empty suit, more interested in his image and getting selfies.

(I have no complaints about the way he has handled Trump so far... appealing to the ego of his friends/family was probably the best tactic, although given Trump's irrationality the chances of it working were pretty low.)
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Old 8th June 2018, 04:56 PM   #412
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As far as the Ontario election is concerned, here's hoping Doug Ford makes a better premier than his late brother's train-wreck that was his time as mayor of Toronto.

I wonder how the people of Walkerton feel about a populist Conservative premier who seems to be long on platitudes and short on specifics?
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Old 8th June 2018, 09:24 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I wonder what happened to the NDP support. Granted, our first-past-the-post system can amplify small differences in voting percentage, but the NDP were in pretty much a statistical tie with the conservatives in popular support a couple of days ago. Maybe its due to conservatives being better oriented to actually go to the polls.
The Stanley Cup finals are probably the most watched TV in Canada every year. During the Stanley Cup final game two nights before the election the PCs ran an ad constantly - probably every second ad that was played all game. The same ad played constantly on most other highly watched shows over the couple days before the election.


That PC ad said that the NDP was going to increase gas taxes by 35 cents a litre. Ontarians heard that over and over again. It undoubtedly gave a large number of probable NDP voters cold feet - not the hardcore NDPers who would have known that the claim was completely false, and probably the most dishonest claim to have ever appeared in a Canadian political ad that I can remember seeing - but the soft NDP vote - which would have included a lot of normal Liberal voters. They likely stayed home.

The NDP didn't help themselves at the end of the campaign. They had been skating by not really being attacked by anyone not just for most of the campaign, but in reality for years, as the Cons attacked the Libs and the Libs attacked the Cons (and the NDP attacked both). They reacted like deer in the headlights when the Libs and Cons turned their attacks towards the NDP late in the campaign. Horwath seemed completely taken by surprise and was unprepared to receive attacks during the last debate and they had no response - none at all - complete silence - to the Liberal and Conservative attack ads during the final days of the campaign.

(For the record the claim was based not on any NDP policy, but the support from a single NDP candidate, who has no say over policy, for a carbon tax that would work out to about 7 cents a litre but with consistent increases over many, many years would eventually rise to the equivalent of 35 cents a litre.)

Last edited by Wayward son; 8th June 2018 at 09:38 PM.
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Old 10th June 2018, 08:52 AM   #414
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
BTW what chance does Trudeau have of picking up some popularit points by standing up to Trumo this weekend, since few Canadians of any political stripe like Trump.

I was 'iffy' about Justin Trudeau when he was first elected. I questioned whether he had the kahunas to lead a country in a tough and ugly world.

But now that I've seen how he has stood his ground, and is refusing to let Trump use Canada as a doormat... without giving up his ethics and diplomacy in the process (ie: acting like a petulant child) ?

I'm liking him more and more every day.

Anecdotally speaking, my fellow neighbours, friends, and family members are also saying the same thing about this whole kerfuffle.

It seems to me many Canadians are feeling the strong urge to set aside any partisan politics and stand united as a sovereign nation against the bulldog tactics happening in the oval office.
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Old 10th June 2018, 10:49 AM   #415
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That Ford's opponents used the term "Trump Light" against him, and that Ford vigourlesly fought against the label shows that no Canadian Politican wants to be seen as a friend of Trumpy.
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Old 10th June 2018, 10:23 PM   #416
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Originally Posted by AnonyMoose View Post
It seems to me many Canadians are feeling the strong urge to set aside any partisan politics and stand united as a sovereign nation against the bulldog tactics happening in the oval office.

Yeah, even Andrew Scheer and Doug Ford came out in support of Trudeau.

Quote:
OTTAWA -- Leaders from across Canada's political spectrum voiced their support Sunday for free trade and opposition to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum while denouncing the Trump administration's unprecedented attacks on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Among them were some of Trudeau's fiercest critics, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and incoming Ontario premier Doug Ford, both of whom promised to stand with the government as it seeks to resolve what has become an all-out trade war with the U.S.

If you'd asked me a week ago what could bring those three together, I'd've been stumped for an answer.
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Old 11th June 2018, 01:29 PM   #417
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Yeah, even Andrew Scheer and Doug Ford came out in support of Trudeau.

If you'd asked me a week ago what could bring those three together, I'd've been stumped for an answer.

It gives me hope to know that our politicians can set aside their ponytail tug-of-wars and rally together when it's really needed in support of our PM... even if they can't stand the guy or his policies.

Partisan bickering is one thing, but dealing with an out of control nutbag south of the 49th that's bound and determined to make us all his personal bi***, is a whole other ball game.

Glad to see these guys unite.

Thanks for the link.

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Old 12th June 2018, 07:12 AM   #418
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Hello, Canadians on ISF:

I would very much like to post some Canada-friendly, supportive statements on the largest forum, newspaper, twitter hashtag, or whatever Canadians might access and see. Any suggestions? (BTW, I don't use FB.)
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Old 12th June 2018, 08:33 AM   #419
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Quote:
It seems to me many Canadians are feeling the strong urge to set aside any partisan politics and stand united as a sovereign nation against the bulldog tactics happening in the oval office.
Yeah, even Andrew Scheer and Doug Ford came out in support of Trudeau.
And, for what its worth, Brian Mulroney (former conservative prime minister, who's actually been acting as sort of an advisor for Trudeau when dealing with Trump) has also been on side with Trudeau.

From: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/form...torm-1.3969200
Mulroney said he thought Trudeau's closing remarks were "fairly benign and certainly didn't warrant any attack. All Mr. Trudeau was doing, in a rather gentle way, was articulating the position of his government, which would be the position of any Canadian government in these circumstances," he said, adding that the counter-tariffs make sense.
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Old 12th June 2018, 08:39 AM   #420
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Trudeau may have been getting a little too close to female reporters.

From: https://www.thedailybeast.com/justin...stival-in-2000
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been forced to deny groping a young female reporter at a music festival in 2000 after a report about the alleged incident resurfaced online this week. The allegation was first published in an editorial in the Creston Valley Advance, a local newspaper in British Columbia, in August 2000.

The cynic in me suggests that the real reason Trudeau wanted to have so many women in cabinet is for more opportunities for groping.

The skeptic in me says... this does just seem to be an allegation, not a conviction (and a single one at that)... which unfortunately leads to a he-said/she-said situation. And unfortunately, while the initial story was published in a local newspaper at one point the story was picked up by brietbart (which leaves a taint on anything they touch.)
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Old 15th June 2018, 08:59 AM   #421
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Looks like our little spat with Trump has actually caused Trudeau's approval ratings to go up...

From: https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/06/15...uggests/148201
In a recent Angus Reid Institute survey, Mr. Trudeau saw a double-digit surge of 12 points in his approval rating since March, thanks to his forceful response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sabre rattling.

A bit ironic... The U.S. ambassador to Germany got into diplomatic trouble because he suggested the U.S. wanted more right-wing governments. Well, prior to this, Trudeau's support was declining in the polls. Thanks to Trump, Trudeau has gone from looking like an intellectual lightweight with hair more interested in taking selfies with adoring fans to looking like a capable leader willing to stand up to a 'bully' president. Granted the next election is still a long way off, but Trump may have actually given the next election back to the Liberals.
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Old 15th June 2018, 09:40 AM   #422
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Looks like our little spat with Trump has actually caused Trudeau's approval ratings to go up...

From: https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/06/15...uggests/148201
In a recent Angus Reid Institute survey, Mr. Trudeau saw a double-digit surge of 12 points in his approval rating since March, thanks to his forceful response to U.S. President Donald Trumpís sabre rattling.

A bit ironic... The U.S. ambassador to Germany got into diplomatic trouble because he suggested the U.S. wanted more right-wing governments. Well, prior to this, Trudeau's support was declining in the polls. Thanks to Trump, Trudeau has gone from looking like an intellectual lightweight with hair more interested in taking selfies with adoring fans to looking like a capable leader willing to stand up to a 'bully' president. Granted the next election is still a long way off, but Trump may have actually given the next election back to the Liberals.
That was easy to predict. It's just the way politics seems to work.
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Old 15th June 2018, 02:06 PM   #423
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Granted the next election is still a long way off, but Trump may have actually given the next election back to the Liberals.

Well, that and the Ontario election. The Ontario election has finally convinced me that I'm fundamentally at odds with what everyone else apparently wants from the modern conservative parties in Canada, while Trudeau's handling of Trump (and not just the last two weeks, or so, either, pretty much the last year and half) have convinced me he has the substance to do the job.
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Old 18th June 2018, 10:47 AM   #424
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Well, that and the Ontario election. The Ontario election has finally convinced me that I'm fundamentally at odds with what everyone else apparently wants from the modern conservative parties in Canada
Admittedly, I tend to vote conservative. I do because I have kind of libertarian leanings... I favor more social and economic freedom, but I'm not insane enough to be a full-fledged "cut everything" libertarian. And I think the conservatives are the closest to that idea.

I am not always happy with what the conservatives do. (And Doug Ford's willingness to drive up the deficit is annoying). But I don't think we're quite at the level of a Donald Trump (at least not yet).
Quote:
... while Trudeau's handling of Trump (and not just the last two weeks, or so, either, pretty much the last year and half) have convinced me he has the substance to do the job.
Yes, I agree, Trudeau has handled Trump about as well as anyone could have.

On the other hand, there have been other issues that kind of detract from that: His Trip to India (which really wasn't that long ago), his handling of defence procurement (in particular the CF18 replacements), etc.
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Old 19th June 2018, 04:49 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
On the other hand, there have been other issues that kind of detract from that: His Trip to India (which really wasn't that long ago), his handling of defence procurement (in particular the CF18 replacements), etc.
Defence procurement in this country has been a frakking mess since we were debating how to equip the troops for the Red River Campaign.

No politician in Canada will ever get the sack because the military doesn't have the kit it needs to do the job that Parliament sends it to do. We'll somehow make it work - we'll fabricate parts for engines and cannon that have been out of production for more than 20 years, we'll do 20-40 hours of maintenance on helicopters for every hour they're in the air, we'll issue out weapons that were produced during WWII, etc. - we won't let the mission fail because we didn't go to great lengths just to scrape together what we need.

and after we muddle through, after the congratulatory statements are said in Parliament and the editorials, Parliament will go back to arguing that we just can't afford those new toys, and weren't you just able to do what you claim you really need this for without it? That's wasteful.
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Old 25th June 2018, 08:35 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by Border Reiver View Post
Quote:
On the other hand, there have been other issues that kind of detract from that: His Trip to India (which really wasn't that long ago), his handling of defence procurement (in particular the CF18 replacements), etc.
Defence procurement in this country has been a frakking mess since we were debating how to equip the troops for the Red River Campaign.
Oh, I agree... BOTH parties have rather shameful records when dealing with defence procurement. The Harper government had a good start (buying the C-17s) then fell off the deep end. And Chretien targeted defence in his attempts to balance the budget (yet he still found the money to expand other government programs...)

Just that if I had to compare the 2 parties, I'd say the conservatives did a LITTLE better than the Liberals are currently doing. (Not that I'm saying the conservatives did a good job.... just a case of being the 'lesser of 2 evils'.) And the CF18 replacement program is particularly egregious.
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Old 25th June 2018, 09:00 AM   #427
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Looks like Equalization may be an issue again.

Anyone unfamiliar with the idea... In Canada, the federal government collects tax revenue from various sources, and SOME of it is passed on to the provinces. Some provinces (ones with fewer natural resources or smaller industrial base or population) are considered 'have not', and they get extra equalization payments (so that in theory they can provide the same level of services as the "have" provinces.)

Now, I have no problem with the concept of equalization payments... After all, a province like PEI has pretty small population base and limited natural resources so its understandable they'd need some financial assistance to help deliver decent services. The problem is, the largest recipient for equalization historically has been Quebec, despite the fact that they have abundant natural resources (including electricity, which is not included in the equalization formula) and a large population base.

The federal government seems to have 'snuck in' a renewal for the program (sticking it in the middle of a rather long finance bill), extending it for another 5 years using pretty much the same formula that they've been using. The federal finance minister is claiming he's been in constant contact with all the provincial governments, but some of the provinces (as well as the opposition) are claiming that this was a complete surprise that the final decision was made.

Many want the formula for calculating the equalization payments amended. The problem is, Trudeau's power base is in Quebec, which is the province that would lose the most money if the formula were changed. So, they want to keep Quebec happy and keep the money flowing in to the province. (Which is probably the reason the plan to keep the same formula for the next 5 years was snuck in the middle of a huge document.)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...-form-to-2024/
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Old 26th June 2018, 04:16 AM   #428
Border Reiver
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Oh, I agree... BOTH parties have rather shameful records when dealing with defence procurement. The Harper government had a good start (buying the C-17s) then fell off the deep end. And Chretien targeted defence in his attempts to balance the budget (yet he still found the money to expand other government programs...)

Just that if I had to compare the 2 parties, I'd say the conservatives did a LITTLE better than the Liberals are currently doing. (Not that I'm saying the conservatives did a good job.... just a case of being the 'lesser of 2 evils'.) And the CF18 replacement program is particularly egregious.
About the only time that defence procurement went OK was from about 1941-45. Maybe 1916-18.... except then there was no planning for the post-war economy which lead to a depression 1919-192something as the prices fell out of grains and no one needed munitions like they had for the previous 4 years...

Anyway defence procurement is more than the big, sexy stuff like aircraft, and ships - its the very mundane stuff like trucks and boots and sleeping bags where we fall down as a country. I've done the reserve forces thing for 32 years, and I can remember at least 4 periods where getting boots on people's feet have been an issue, and these periods have lasted about a year each time, while contracts are drawn up and people at PSC worry about Canadian content and regional development, and the troops save their cash to buy their own...

As for trucks - the medium weight truck (2.5 tons cross country carrying capacity) currently being used ATM was introduced in 1985. And when I say introduced that means we bought them in 1985 and 86. That's right, we haven't bought any more since and the ones that are running started their military service at the same time I did.

When Canada buys a piece of equipment it intends the kit to last 10-20 years in service. If we figure that we need say 500 widgets to meet our needs then we buy 550, plus the spare parts we think we'll need to keep it going for the 10-20 years. We take delivery in the first couple of years, and then that's it, unless some other country is using that piece of equipment the factory can shut the production facility down, because we won't be getting any more. And then in 15 or so years the staff will start looking for a replacement for that piece of kit. It's not a responsive system - spares are hard to come by if they aren't off the shelf, losses can't be made up, and rapid expansion is not a thing. And outside of DND very few people want to change it - because they don't see the need to, afterall its our tax dollars and if the military really needs it they can maintain it.
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