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Old Today, 03:05 AM   #1001
Darat
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I can only assume that Dom has five friends he wants to meet up with.
Can I remind you which forum you are posting in? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence!
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Old Today, 03:32 AM   #1002
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Well, the government's anti-science messaging has worked - #SackVallance & #SackWhitty are both trending on twitter. They're being blamed for absolutely everything.

Nothing to do with Johnson or Cummings.
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Old Today, 04:06 AM   #1003
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Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
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Old Today, 04:42 AM   #1004
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I can only assume that Dom has five friends he wants to meet up with.
"Associates"

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
Yup, and HMG has learned nothing. It's again dithering about what incremental restrictions it should impose, instead of acting now, when we know that cases are rising at about 10% per day, and we know there's a lag from those who are pre-symptomatic, so don't even know they will need a test.

The numbers have risen sufficiently that the covid.joinzoe.com data is now above the noise threshold in most constituencies, and certainly regions.

It suggests 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day (at about 10% per day) and 96,000 total cases.
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Old Today, 04:52 AM   #1005
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Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further action, the government's chief scientific adviser has warned.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084
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Old Today, 05:48 AM   #1006
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Hopefully the newspapers will be doing some polling and realise that many people want stricter controls imposed and will therefore give good headlines to anyone saying we need stricter controls. That seems the only way we can get the UK government to take action. I’ve given up on my idea that the government was being led by focus group results, it’s now simply what gets a good headline for Johnson.
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Old Today, 05:57 AM   #1007
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
"Associates"



Yup, and HMG has learned nothing. It's again dithering about what incremental restrictions it should impose, instead of acting now, when we know that cases are rising at about 10% per day, and we know there's a lag from those who are pre-symptomatic, so don't even know they will need a test.

The numbers have risen sufficiently that the covid.joinzoe.com data is now above the noise threshold in most constituencies, and certainly regions.

It suggests 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day (at about 10% per day) and 96,000 total cases.
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
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Old Today, 05:59 AM   #1008
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
Remember this government runs on “working days” so they are only a running about 5 days behind.
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Old Today, 06:02 AM   #1009
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further action, the government's chief scientific adviser has warned.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084
He said deaths up to 200 a day a month after that, what about a month after that? Is he saying it will plateau at 200 per day? If so what causes it to plateau rather than carryon increasing?
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Old Today, 06:13 AM   #1010
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Looks like Van Morrison has bought into some of the conspiracy theories.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54194498

Of course celebrities have just as much of a right to be cranks as any member of the public. The problem IMO is that their ability to influence others is far greater.
Morrison was always a bit that way.
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Old Today, 06:19 AM   #1011
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
... he was working under the assumption that because Johnson wanted to be PM that he'd completely change and start doing the work once he was.

Very similar to what many Americans assumed about Trump. [godwin]Many Germans assumed the same thing when they voted for a failed artist as chancellor. [/godwin]
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Old Today, 06:25 AM   #1012
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
In a real free-market economy they would lose their contracts and their jobs.
In a real free market economy we wouldn't even know that they failed because we wouldn't be able to see the data.

The economic system currently used is horrible, but don't expect the free market to be any better.
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Old Today, 06:40 AM   #1013
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
Yes and of course there are many on the New Zealand dance floor trying to
revise history before it is written, but we enjoy a freedom to associate with no anxiety.
However, the best rewarded are residential property owners, and the worst are honest toilers in hospo and tourism.
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Old Today, 06:43 AM   #1014
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Hopefully the newspapers will be doing some polling and realise that many people want stricter controls imposed and will therefore give good headlines to anyone saying we need stricter controls. That seems the only way we can get the UK government to take action. I’ve given up on my idea that the government was being led by focus group results, it’s now simply what gets a good headline for Johnson.
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

Introducing stricter controls when people aren't yet up in arms about the number of cases does risk some negative press.

I've also noted more "Should we just live with the virus" sentiment being expressed like this BBC article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

I guess this may be start of a cunning plan to just give up.
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Old Today, 06:52 AM   #1015
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
True, and of course there's about 5-6 days pre-symptomatic cases already, so even if we stopped everything today, we'd be at about 16-17 thousand cases a day before it fell.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Remember this government runs on “working days” so they are only a running about 5 days behind.
Indeed. My flabber still hasn't unghasted from the March COBR meeting that they mentioned on Friday for Monday.
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Old Today, 07:08 AM   #1016
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Is that a normal persons "working days", or Johnson's?
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Old Today, 08:33 AM   #1017
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Was told last night that getting tested is relying on the 'Nanny State' and we should take responsibility for our own health and that tests don't work anyway, they give a positive for any kind of virus like flu and colds so they can't be trusted.

Whatever that is supposed to mean
It means you should probably permanently self isolate from the person who told you that.
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Old Today, 08:40 AM   #1018
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

We need Boris, or Dom, to do something mindnumbingly embarrassing and stupid, so that the government is forced to take action to distract attention from it. Otherwise they’ll just stumble blindly on.
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Old Today, 09:23 AM   #1019
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I thought leaving the panic buying until today might be cutting it a bit fine, but not at all. The supermarket wasn't short of anything at all. (Frozen brussels sprouts out of stock, delivery expected this afternoon, come back tomorrow for these, otherwise absolutely everything in abundance.) No sign of anyone else stocking up on UHT milk and Ryvita and long-dated cheese and cereal.

I'm prepared for the worst now, and if I have to survive until after Christmas on what I've got plus the local hotel's "community shop" service that doesn't require going inside at all, I can do it. We had the chance to contain this and we totally blew it. We should have clamped down in August, not left it until now.

Of course, after Christmas is a whole other set of problems.
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Old Today, 09:27 AM   #1020
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

Introducing stricter controls when people aren't yet up in arms about the number of cases does risk some negative press.

I've also noted more "Should we just live with the virus" sentiment being expressed like this BBC article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

I guess this may be start of a cunning Cummings plan to just give up.
FTFY
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Old Today, 09:28 AM   #1021
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Aha, someone's remembered the Nando's chart:

Quote:
UK coronavirus alert level should move to level 4, meaning transmission is "high or rising exponentially", chief medical officers say
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Old Today, 10:00 AM   #1022
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I thought leaving the panic buying until today might be cutting it a bit fine, but not at all. The supermarket wasn't short of anything at all. (Frozen brussels sprouts out of stock, delivery expected this afternoon, come back tomorrow for these, otherwise absolutely everything in abundance.) No sign of anyone else stocking up on UHT milk and Ryvita and long-dated cheese and cereal.

I'm prepared for the worst now, and if I have to survive until after Christmas on what I've got plus the local hotel's "community shop" service that doesn't require going inside at all, I can do it. We had the chance to contain this and we totally blew it. We should have clamped down in August, not left it until now.

Of course, after Christmas is a whole other set of problems.
Shops round here have so much toilet roll in stock I don't think we need to worry about it. they seemed to over compensate for the shortage, Local B&M now has an entire aisle dedicated to toilet roll.
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Old Today, 02:57 PM   #1023
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JUNE - it’s your civic duty to go to the pub

JULY - go back to the office and buy coffee on the way

AUGUST - eat out, we’ll pay half

SEPTEMBER - this is your last chance to stop spreading the virus
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