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Old Yesterday, 04:41 PM   #1961
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
That is certainly one way, but theoretically he can only get it in quarantine by secondary transfer, which means a worker or med staffer also has it. But heh I am only guessing.
Michael Baker agrees by far the most likely source is in the quarantine facility: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...entral-america

I think your theory about quarantine vectors is wrong, too. There are shared areas for exercise, and lifts and corridors to get to them, so there are shared areas where it could be transmitted by fomite or aerosol. Also, this is the family that dropped their ******* kids off at school knowing the parent was infected. I don't know how stringent the guarding is at quarantine facilities, but the likelihood of him catching up with one of his mates in the facility and catching up on Covid at the same time seems a possibility.

We've had people escape for a packet of fags, confirmed stories about lack of distancing in quarantine - it's not a big stretch to see it being spread there.

I'm actually surprised it took so long.

Interesting point in that link about the Americold cluster looking like the same virus as Central America. Christ knows how that fits in, but it got here somehow. Refrigerated drug shipment?
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Old Yesterday, 07:33 PM   #1962
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One church was the problem. Just one.

And even that one got over its idiocy and opened up to health authorities once they realised the sky-fairy was allowing people to die of Covid.
And even that one wasn't the local Church's fault.

Churches with links to the US being blamed for spreading Covid-19 misinformation
Quote:
Health Minister Chris Hipkins has said some of the 43 people linked to the Mt Roskill Evangelical Fellowship church cluster in Auckland were sceptical about the seriousness of the pandemic, as church and community leaders say they face a battle to check the spread of false information...

Lua, who is the chairman of the Pacific Leadership Forum's Pacific Response Coordination Team, said this spread was especially rife among those with links to conservative evangelical or pentecostal churches in the United States.

Media chaplain and Wesleyan Methodist minister Frank Ritchie said some ministers were losing the battle to stem the flow of misinformation amongst their congregations.

"What I'm seeing is ministers who are doing the right thing, but their people are being indoctrinated online."
Trump said:-
"Even New Zealand, you see what is going on in New Zealand. They beat it, they beat it... It was like front page, they beat it because they wanted to show me something. The problem is [a] big surge in New Zealand. It's terrible."
It was actually only a tiny surge, but furthermore it was partly his fault. Nobody has done more to spread misinformation about Covid-19 than Trump, and now his toxic lies are infecting foreign countries that don't deserve it. If only we could develop a vaccine against that virus.
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Old Yesterday, 08:11 PM   #1963
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
.....
The effects of Covid-19 are worse in winter; this is due to lower humidity which means the mucous membranes in the nose tend to dry out, which lets the virus in. When it’s more humid, the mucus traps the virus, and it gets swallowed. The stomach acid doesn’t deactivate it, but the effects of the disease when caught that way are much less severe.
If that's true does it lend itself to a preventive strategy? It's not hard to humidify indoor air.
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Old Yesterday, 08:34 PM   #1964
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Transmission from very young children infected in child care facilities to many in external environments.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm

Quote:
Analysis of contact tracing data in Salt Lake County, Utah, identified outbreaks of COVID-19 in three small to large child care facilities linked to index cases in adults and associated with transmission from children to household and nonhousehold contacts. In these three outbreaks, 54% of the cases linked to the facilities occurred in children. Transmission likely occurred from children with confirmed COVID-19 in a child care facility to 25% of their nonfacility contacts.

Mitigation strategies could have helped limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in these facilities. To help control the spread of COVID-19, the use of masks is recommended for persons aged ≥2 years. Although masks likely reduce the transmission risk, some children are too young to wear masks but can transmit SARS-CoV-2, as was seen in facility B when a child aged 8 months transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to both parents.
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Old Yesterday, 08:56 PM   #1965
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
...
"Even New Zealand, you see what is going on in New Zealand. They beat it, they beat it... It was like front page, they beat it because they wanted to show me something. The problem is [a] big surge in New Zealand. It's terrible."
I copied this to the Trump is mentally ill thread. No explanation needed.
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Old Yesterday, 09:01 PM   #1966
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Transmission from very young children infected in child care facilities to many in external environments.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm
From the link:

Quote:
One parent was hospitalized.
Can you imagine how awful that must have been for that child?

Shame on these people that want their kids in school regardless of the risks.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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Old Yesterday, 09:09 PM   #1967
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
If that's true does it lend itself to a preventive strategy? It's not hard to humidify indoor air.
Yes, that was one of the suggestions.
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Old Yesterday, 09:13 PM   #1968
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Can you imagine how awful that must have been for that child?

Shame on these people that want their kids in school regardless of the risks.
Yeah. Hopefully others will learn from this. Sad thing is that so many get their info from their group of friends on Facebook and the algorithms are designed to increase face time, not present accurate information.
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Old Yesterday, 11:08 PM   #1969
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
If only we could develop a vaccine against that virus.

Some Swedish critics of Sweden's pandemic response, i.e. let's party on while the old people die, coined the phrase "flockhumanitet" = herd humanity. Herd humanity seems to be working in places as diverse as Cuba, Iceland, Mongolia and New Zealand. In Mongolia, they say that they "don't actually have a great public health system", but they seem to understand that prevention is better than treatment ...
But I guess herd humanity won't stand a chance against Trump's herd mentality.
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Old Yesterday, 11:09 PM   #1970
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Can you imagine how awful that must have been for that child?
Being a preschool, the kid wouldn't even know.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Shame on these people that want their kids in school regardless of the risks.
1 It's child care, not school.
2 How many teachers and daycare workers are hospitalised annually due to catching 'flu at work?

Do you have children? I ask because you consistently seem to devalue the worth of school to children.
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Old Yesterday, 11:34 PM   #1971
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Being a preschool, the kid wouldn't even know.

1 It's child care, not school.
2 How many teachers and daycare workers are hospitalised annually due to catching 'flu at work?

Do you have children? I ask because you consistently seem to devalue the worth of school to children.
Yes I have a child. He's 31 now. I was a pediatric nurse for a year. I'm certified as a family practice nurse practitioner.

You think the kid wouldn't know? Wow!

Consistently devalue the worth of school to children? Way to dismiss what I asked: Can you imagine how that made that child feel?

No matter the age of the child, unless it was an infant believe me, the child knows what was going on.

So, can you imagine how that child felt? Should I post a link about how young children blame themselves for things that weren't their fault?
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Old Yesterday, 11:59 PM   #1972
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yes I have a child. He's 31 now. I was a pediatric nurse for a year. I'm certified as a family practice nurse practitioner.
I'm surprised you go against expert opinion on the value of schools then.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
You think the kid wouldn't know? Wow!
Of course it wouldn't. Preschool kids have no concept of infection.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Consistently devalue the worth of school to children? Way to dismiss what I asked: Can you imagine how that made that child feel?
The two things have nothing to do with each other.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So, can you imagine how that child felt? Should I post a link about how young children blame themselves for things that weren't their fault?
Go ahead - it proves your idea is nonsense. If kids blame themselves for things that didn't happen, the entire blame game is irrelevant.

Not to mention, if the parents bring their kids up to apportion blame during their preschool years, it's the parents' fault.
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Old Today, 06:39 AM   #1973
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Have there been any updated serology study numbers? Last I heard was CDC said 14 asymptomatic cases per positive nose swab among symptomatic cases. . Is that still holding/verified?
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Old Today, 06:50 AM   #1974
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm surprised you go against expert opinion on the value of schools then.



Of course it wouldn't. Preschool kids have no concept of infection.



The two things have nothing to do with each other.



Go ahead - it proves your idea is nonsense. If kids blame themselves for things that didn't happen, the entire blame game is irrelevant.

Not to mention, if the parents bring their kids up to apportion blame during their preschool years, it's the parents' fault.
Such certainty. No doubt you will have some “get out of jail free” card over the definition of the word “concept”, but I can assure that my preschool granddaughter is well aware of viruses and infections.
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Old Today, 08:12 AM   #1975
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Updated Sept 18, CDC info: How COVID-19 Spreads

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html

Quote:
How easily a virus spreads from person to person can vary. Airborne viruses, including COVID-19, are among the most contagious and easily spread. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. The virus that causes COVID-19 appears to spread more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.
...
A person may get COVID-19 by touching the surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or eyes. Spread from touching surfaces is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
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Old Today, 08:35 AM   #1976
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
.....
Of course it wouldn't. Preschool kids have no concept of infection.
.....
What does this even mean? Children are not well-versed in the details of germ theory. But they certainly understand getting sick. They know what it's like when they get sick, or when their parents or siblings or other kids get sick. They certainly know that Mom or Dad going to the hospital is a Very Bad Thing. What is the point you are trying to make?
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Old Today, 11:45 AM   #1977
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
What is the point you are trying to make?
That kids neither understand nor care about who and how they might infect others. Some of the children were as young as 8 months and all are under 5.
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Old Today, 12:09 PM   #1978
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Updated Sept 18, CDC info: How COVID-19 Spreads

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...d-spreads.html
This has now been reverted with the CDC stating that it inadvertently posted a draft updating airborne spread but it hadn't been reviewed and approved.

Quote:
CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted.
I recall that the "draft" guidance was a bit inconsistent with one section, quoted earlier, mentioning airborne, while another section omitted reference to airborne. Also the recommendation to use masks was moved up but along with the admonition not to reduce the other listed mitigations.

It's being widely speculated to have been reverted because of political pressure. The WHO has come out against the draft but somehow I doubt that would have much effect on the DJT administration. OTOH, increasing the ranking of masks might. Nonetheless, the original updated piece needed clarification due to internal inconsistency.
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Old Today, 12:15 PM   #1979
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I do wish these articles would distinguish between airborne and aerosol spread.
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Old Today, 01:47 PM   #1980
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Updated Sept 18, CDC info: How COVID-19 Spreads
...and an update on the update, retracting the update...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6480e8972428d
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Old Today, 02:03 PM   #1981
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Are they saying that the information in the update was false?
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Old Today, 02:18 PM   #1982
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
...and an update on the update, retracting the update...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6480e8972428d
Yeah. That's what I reported a few posts back http://www.internationalskeptics.com...5#post13231405

Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Are they saying that the information in the update was false?
No. They are saying it was a draft that hadn't been fully approved and was inadvertently posted on the web.
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Old Today, 02:42 PM   #1983
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Presenting statistical findings to prove a trend or an effective mitigation technique is nothing but manipulated observations and anecdotal experiences. In order to observe and evaluate advances and/or deviations from a position... standardization and constants are required. If one country reports their deaths as "anyone who with Covid-19 at the time of their demise will be counted as a Covid-19 death" and another country reports their Covid-19 deaths as "if Covid-19 was the reason why the death occurred"... you will immediately have corrupted statistics for comparison. If days are "skipped" in reporting, your results will not be valid.

This is what we have in the World. It is strange that SE Asia and Africa have not been highlighted as models of efficiency in battling Covid-19. Just look at the bottom of the list in "Total cases per 1M pop". The same will hold true for "Total deaths per 1M pop"... same countries are at the bottom 40 (give or take a few in each list).

We can continue to debate the merits of wearing face masks, taking supplements, wearing glasses, et al but it is for naught. There is no standardization in reporting cases and deaths much less constants. We can't even compare a before, during, or after the recognition of the virus due to it's exponential growth pattern plus the virus "morphs" as quickly as it can so what we have today in the way of Covid-19 is not the same Covid-19 we had in February.

The overall "winner" will be the one who has the loudest voice.
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Old Today, 02:51 PM   #1984
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
It is strange that SE Asia and Africa have not been highlighted as models of efficiency in battling Covid-19. Just look at the bottom of the list in "Total cases per 1M pop". The same will hold true for "Total deaths per 1M pop"... same countries are at the bottom 40 (give or take a few in each list).
Of course they have been highlighted. In part because there is such a large discrepancy between them and more impacted Western countries. Asian countries took it a lot more seriously and put measures in place earlier in the nascent growth phase while Western countries screwed around until it was staring them in the face. a 3 week delay shifts the death totals about 2 orders of magnitude. Pretty straightforward math. And the delay meant that testing and tracing was far harder once the cases were spiraling in numbers.
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Old Today, 02:51 PM   #1985
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Yeah. That's what I reported a few posts back
Sorry mate, I thought you had the first update.

We're now approaching one year of having Covid unleashed - it's pretty slack that there are still questions like this not completely resolved.

Originally Posted by No Other View Post
It is strange that SE Asia and Africa have not been highlighted as models of efficiency in battling Covid-19.
The SEA countries are - maybe it's just your local news that isn't highlighting them, but internationally, they have been quite heavily. South Korea and Taiwan are shining beacons to the rest of the world.

Africa is still under question at the moment. Some of the stats are unreliable, others are plain false, and their demographic is sufficiently different from the rest of the world to not necessarily mean a great deal.
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Old Today, 02:58 PM   #1986
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Nice piece with lots of good data.

A few gems: a 10um droplet takes about 8 mins. to drop 5' in stagnant air. A 3um droplet an hour and a half. Since air is rarely stationary in ventilated rooms the notion that a 5-10um droplet is going to drop to the floor in a few feet is simply nuts.

Generation and Behavior of Airborne Particles (Aerosols)

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/aer...erosol_101.pdf
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Old Today, 03:03 PM   #1987
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
it's pretty slack that there are still questions like this not completely resolved.
So true. I'm flabbergasted and how piecemeal data collection and analysis has been. It's unforgivable.
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Old Today, 03:08 PM   #1988
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Of course they have been highlighted. In part because there is such a large discrepancy between them and more impacted Western countries. Asian countries took it a lot more seriously and put measures in place earlier in the nascent growth phase while Western countries screwed around until it was staring them in the face. a 3 week delay shifts the death totals about 2 orders of magnitude. Pretty straightforward math. And the delay meant that testing and tracing was far harder once the cases were spiraling in numbers.
I agree it is straightforward math and that was the focus I attempted to make...
Does the world know if these countries count their cases and deaths the same way? Do all of these countries use the same testing procedure?
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Old Today, 03:15 PM   #1989
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
I agree it is straightforward math and that was the focus I attempted to make...
Does the world know if these countries count their cases and deaths the same way? Do all of these countries use the same testing procedure?
Deaths are pretty much counted the same way. Small variations like deaths w/o PCR test confirmation but these differences at most impact the numbers by 20% or so.

All countries use PCR tests which have advanced enormously over the last few decades and are now ubiquitous worldwide. China was likely initially overwhelmed and struggled for a time but other Asian countries deployed testing promptly once China released the genome data in early Jan. The USA deployment of PCR testing is an example of gross incompetence.
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Old Today, 04:03 PM   #1990
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Nice piece with lots of good data.

A few gems: a 10um droplet takes about 8 mins. to drop 5' in stagnant air. A 3um droplet an hour and a half. Since air is rarely stationary in ventilated rooms the notion that a 5-10um droplet is going to drop to the floor in a few feet is simply nuts.

Generation and Behavior of Airborne Particles (Aerosols)

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/aer...erosol_101.pdf
Even then, it's not quite that simple. If an aerosol viral particle dries out in low humidity, it might hang in the air for an hour and a half, but be inactive in 5 minutes.
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Old Today, 05:21 PM   #1991
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We might have a good explanation of why early Covid death rates were so much higher than now - right in the middle of 'flu season, and research shows co-infection with both almost doubles your chances of dying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-risk-of-death
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Old Today, 05:29 PM   #1992
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Even then, it's not quite that simple. If an aerosol viral particle dries out in low humidity, it might hang in the air for an hour and a half, but be inactive in 5 minutes.
I believe there are studies that show aerosoled virus remains viable for up to 3 hours in moderate (50% RH). It probably is reduced at lower RH. In any case that's plenty of time for droplets up to 10um to mostly evaporate, get smaller, and build up and float around a few hours.

But mostly I'm complaining about the notion that droplets over 5um are going to fall near the source. Seems ridiculous. They are going from a 100%RH environment to a lower one, 30%-60% typical and will fairly quickly shrink. How much? There are probably studies.

Another interesting thing at that link is that a majority of the larger, 5um-10um, droplets are stopped in the nasal passage. The smaller ones, 1-2um are mostly captured in the lungs. Combine that with research that indicates the bug is more receptive in the nose. Interesting stuff.
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Old Today, 05:42 PM   #1993
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We might have a good explanation of why early Covid death rates were so much higher than now - right in the middle of 'flu season, and research shows co-infection with both almost doubles your chances of dying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-risk-of-death
Wouldn't surprise me at all if it's an additional comorbidity.

The CDC publishes surveillance data on influenza and positives were dropping off a cliff quite a while before the covid cases were ramping significantly. But it may have some impact in the very earliest part of the initial wave. In any case the positive flu test numbers dropped off much quicker in the USA than normal end of season decreases in earlier years.

An interesting side effect is that "excess deaths" due to covid are probably even more understated by the flu dropoff. But that's not a big number since we were near the end of the flu season in the USA.

Another implication is that "excess deaths" may turn negative in places like NY City assuming Covid-19 deaths stay at or below 5x their current level through flu season. It doesn't take a lot of social distancing to cut the already low influenza R below 1. And the baseline of excess deaths includes a normal flu season. If it stays as low as it's been everywhere else where Covid is active then actual deaths minus covid-19 ones will be below the multiyear mean.
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Old Today, 06:06 PM   #1994
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Interesting quote from a virologist on AU's Flu season:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...lu-season-fall

Quote:
For instance, in 2019, Australia got an early flu season that started in March and “went on for a very long time,” says Kanta Subbarao, a virologist who directs the World Health Organization’s Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Doherty Institute in Melbourne, Australia.

It wasn’t looking good for 2020 either. This year, flu season started even earlier, she says. “We started seeing some flu activity in January and February,” summer in the Southern Hemisphere. “Then it just completely stopped. It just fell off a cliff at the end of March, essentially when COVID-19 started appearing.”
So the "twindemic" fears being propagated assume everyone gets tired of social distancing,masking, and staying home as much as possible and just goes about everything as normal. Might happen if Covid-19 magically goes way down but I don't see behavior going back to anything near normal for a year or so.

However, the twindemic meme is quite handy for keeping people doing the right thing now and less likely to let up much. Things would have to let up a lot before the flu R gets above 1 and at that point Covid-19 would be running wild.

But, whatever works.
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Old Today, 06:58 PM   #1995
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm surprised you go against expert opinion on the value of schools then.

Of course it wouldn't. Preschool kids have no concept of infection.

The two things have nothing to do with each other.

Go ahead - it proves your idea is nonsense. If kids blame themselves for things that didn't happen, the entire blame game is irrelevant.

Not to mention, if the parents bring their kids up to apportion blame during their preschool years, it's the parents' fault.
OK, I'm only going to address this crap once because my post already did.

This has nothing to do with any child's concept of infection. OMG, how do so few people know so little about child development. (I'm including some guy at work today who was equally oblivious to child development 101.)

Since I'm not responsible to educate anyone about said child development I will merely suggest you look at things like how kids blame themselves for a parent's divorce or for a sibling's death.

It's not about kids blaming themselves for things that didn't happen. It's about kids blaming themselves for things that did happen but for which they were not responsible.

Young kids don't think the way adults do. They lack reasoning skills, or rather said reasoning skills develop over time as children's minds mature.


As for the lack of reasoning in your post, really? I'm against expert opinion on the value of schools? WTF?

And this: "if the parents bring their kids up to apportion blame during their preschool years, it's the parents' fault." What the hell is that even about?
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Old Today, 07:01 PM   #1996
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I do wish these articles would distinguish between airborne and aerosol spread.
Why?

It's an arbitrary dividing line in this case.
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Old Today, 07:06 PM   #1997
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Presenting statistical findings to prove a trend or an effective mitigation technique is nothing but manipulated observations and anecdotal experiences. In order to observe and evaluate advances and/or deviations from a position... standardization and constants are required. If one country reports their deaths as "anyone who with Covid-19 at the time of their demise will be counted as a Covid-19 death" and another country reports their Covid-19 deaths as "if Covid-19 was the reason why the death occurred"... you will immediately have corrupted statistics for comparison. If days are "skipped" in reporting, your results will not be valid.

This is what we have in the World. It is strange that SE Asia and Africa have not been highlighted as models of efficiency in battling Covid-19. Just look at the bottom of the list in "Total cases per 1M pop". The same will hold true for "Total deaths per 1M pop"... same countries are at the bottom 40 (give or take a few in each list).

We can continue to debate the merits of wearing face masks, taking supplements, wearing glasses, et al but it is for naught. There is no standardization in reporting cases and deaths much less constants. We can't even compare a before, during, or after the recognition of the virus due to it's exponential growth pattern plus the virus "morphs" as quickly as it can so what we have today in the way of Covid-19 is not the same Covid-19 we had in February.

The overall "winner" will be the one who has the loudest voice.
Oh for pity's sake. I take it you believe science is just one person's belief over another's?
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Old Today, 07:08 PM   #1998
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
So true. I'm flabbergasted and how piecemeal data collection and analysis has been. It's unforgivable.
That's the damaged flagship, the US CDC under Trump's thumb.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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