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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 26th January 2022, 08:43 AM   #1361
The Atheist
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Thanks to Fark for the headline:

Reduce your chances of dying from Covid by 99% with this one weird trick

Topol: get vaccine + booster. Comes with handy-dandy chart and is all age groups.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...95982117425153
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Old 26th January 2022, 01:10 PM   #1362
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
The "WhiteBoard Doctor" known for posting short medical videos got Covid and describes his symptom/test timeline. Lasted about 2 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8893U3CIm-8

interesting comment section where one person after another describes their own Covid. All presumed to be Omicron from late Dec. through today.

Common symptoms:
cough, sore throat, heavy fatigue, aches, often improves then gets worse.
A good read of comments, there seems little discussion still on dose.
The doctor seemed heavily exposed and that looks like real suffering.
Can we assume that light exposure means mild symptoms but still yields excellent future immunity?
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Old 26th January 2022, 01:19 PM   #1363
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Thanks to Fark for the headline:

Reduce your chances of dying from Covid by 99% with this one weird trick

Topol: get vaccine + booster. Comes with handy-dandy chart and is all age groups.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...95982117425153
This 99% reduction of deaths for boosted people is a bit misleading when it's suggested it applies currently.

1. The data was based on Delta.
2. The data is in a timeframe when most boosters were done in response to Delta and so there was little waning of vaccine effectiveness.
3. Omicron shows much higher immunity escape and waning than Delta.
4. Omicron is significantly milder than Delta. There are no studies yet on Omicron specific deaths relative to vaccination/boosting. There is, however, hospitalization data indicating 90% less risk for those recently boosted.

It's going to take a while to get clarity on how effective boosters are against death from Omicron for the following reasons:

1. Because it's much less virulent, deaths from Omicron are also significantly reduced.
2. Since Omicron has infected a large percentage rapidly, an even larger percentage of people dying of other things also test positive for Omicron than was the case with Delta. This wasn't much of a problem prior to Omicron but is now. Separating out these effects is not easy. If not done properly it will look like vaccines aren't as effective against Omicron as they actually are.
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Old 26th January 2022, 01:23 PM   #1364
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
A good read of comments, there seems little discussion still on dose.
The doctor seemed heavily exposed and that looks like real suffering.
Can we assume that light exposure means mild symptoms but still yields excellent future immunity?
I sure hope so. Going to take a while to get actual data on this.
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Old 26th January 2022, 03:35 PM   #1365
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Interesting.

In Scotland, 87 percent of total deaths occurred in vaccinated people in the most recent week.

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch..._1170x799.jpeg

In Britain, 74 percent of deaths within 60 days of a COVID positive test were in the most vaccinated people.

Denmark's case rate seems... completely normal, given that they have an 81 percent vaccination rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/
https://media.gab.com/system/media_a...eaa2b676b.jpeg

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Old 26th January 2022, 04:18 PM   #1366
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Interesting.
It'd be more interesting if we knew how many died with covid as opposed to of covid.

As Marting notes and has been said many times, with huge case numbers, a lot of people who would be dying that day will die with covid. With 150 people a day dying in Scotland on just a normal day, a lot of them will have covid when they croak.
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Old 26th January 2022, 04:22 PM   #1367
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It'd be more interesting if we knew how many died with covid as opposed to of covid.

As Marting notes and has been said many times, with huge case numbers, a lot of people who would be dying that day will die with covid. With 150 people a day dying in Scotland on just a normal day, a lot of them will have covid when they croak.
Why would they have COVID if they have an 81% vaccination rate?
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Old 26th January 2022, 05:28 PM   #1368
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It'd be more interesting if we knew how many died with covid as opposed to of covid.

As Marting notes and has been said many times, with huge case numbers, a lot of people who would be dying that day will die with covid. With 150 people a day dying in Scotland on just a normal day, a lot of them will have covid when they croak.
The report again:
https://publichealthscotland.scot/me...ion_report.pdf

First see page 32. In all age groups above 60 there is 100% (no kidding) 2nd dose vaccination rate. And about 95% boosted. So in this groups, there are basically no unvaccinated. That sadly makes the efficiency of the vaccine really hard to judge. To get good numbers, we would need 2 comparable groups. We don't have that. In this light however 20% unvaccinated in hospitals is still quite big number.

Then "with" or "because of" is also being looked at in the report, page 19 and 20. We see that 64% are hospitalized 'because of'. This group is also skewed toward older people, compared to 'with'. Which is logical, as older people are less socially active, and are more likely to have complications.
For vaccine effectiveness though, the 'with' group is irrelevant.

The 'because of' group compared to other countries has lot of younger people .. 30% of people under 60 and 25% under 44. That's 55% under 60.
We would need more data to judge vaccine efficacy exactly .. especially we need hospitalized divided into age groups, and take size of that group and vaccination uptake in that group into account. But imho it again shows vaccine has big impact.

Last edited by Dr.Sid; 26th January 2022 at 05:29 PM.
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Old 26th January 2022, 05:46 PM   #1369
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
The report again:
https://publichealthscotland.scot/me...ion_report.pdf

First see page 32. In all age groups above 60 there is 100% (no kidding) 2nd dose vaccination rate. And about 95% boosted. So in this groups, there are basically no unvaccinated. That sadly makes the efficiency of the vaccine really hard to judge. To get good numbers, we would need 2 comparable groups. We don't have that. In this light however 20% unvaccinated in hospitals is still quite big number.

Then "with" or "because of" is also being looked at in the report, page 19 and 20. We see that 64% are hospitalized 'because of'. This group is also skewed toward older people, compared to 'with'. Which is logical, as older people are less socially active, and are more likely to have complications.
For vaccine effectiveness though, the 'with' group is irrelevant.

The 'because of' group compared to other countries has lot of younger people .. 30% of people under 60 and 25% under 44. That's 55% under 60.
We would need more data to judge vaccine efficacy exactly .. especially we need hospitalized divided into age groups, and take size of that group and vaccination uptake in that group into account. But imho it again shows vaccine has big impact.
This comes down to the whole base-rate fallacy where cherry-picked data from ONE place where there is a high vaccination rate is used to argue against vaccines.

Of course, the vast majority of places where there are comparable numbers tends to show that in lower vaccinated groups, the unvaccinated make up a huge number of hospitalizations and deaths.
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Old 26th January 2022, 05:57 PM   #1370
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
This comes down to the whole base-rate fallacy where cherry-picked data from ONE place where there is a high vaccination rate is used to argue against vaccines.

Of course, the vast majority of places where there are comparable numbers tends to show that in lower vaccinated groups, the unvaccinated make up a huge number of hospitalizations and deaths.
Not any more.
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Old 26th January 2022, 06:24 PM   #1371
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Not any more.
You need to review the numbers. There is nothing in your post I find surprising or inconsistent with vaccinations and especially boosters greatly reducing death rates.

If you do, then you simply don't understand statistics. That said, there are lots of others that don't.

I must say though that i admire the UK's general ability to collect quality data. The USA is pretty bad at that. Mostly because there is no central medical registry. It's all local at the state, county, or private provider level and is quite spotty. The highest quality data comes from places where there is a large provider like Kaiser Permanente in California and a few other places.
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Old 26th January 2022, 06:41 PM   #1372
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
You need to review the numbers. There is nothing in your post I find surprising or inconsistent with vaccinations and especially boosters greatly reducing death rates.

If you do, then you simply don't understand statistics. That said, there are lots of others that don't.
Ok.

I believe we are seeing signs of ADE emerging from the data. We are 26 days into the mass infection of Israel. We'll see how well those vaccines stop people from dying. There's a few weeks lag time between infection and death.
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Old 26th January 2022, 06:50 PM   #1373
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Ok.

I believe we are seeing signs of ADE emerging from the data. We are 26 days into the mass infection of Israel. We'll see how well those vaccines stop people from dying. There's a few weeks lag time between infection and death.
We need a bit more than just your personal belief. This is something anti-vaxxers have been saying since the beginning of vaccination.
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Old 26th January 2022, 06:53 PM   #1374
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Similar data from Czech Republic, with quite not 100% vaccination rate. Translated by google, I checked most terms to be correct and clear.

https://www-covdata-cz.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp

This whole site is exquisitely done. Lot of data. Updated daily. Great visualization. All interactive. Local language only, but Google translates it without issues. Of course it's non-profit one guy project. But then it relies on government data sets, which mostly come on time, with good explanations, so it's not all that bad.

Anyway .. we're in middle of omicron. The graphs on page linked show effectiveness of vaccine for infection, hospitalization and ICU. Normalized in every age group. It's the black line on the first few graphs.

Effectiveness against infection is zero in younger age groups, but still about 60% in older. I actually have no idea why the difference with age. But clearly there is some, if very low protection.

Effectiveness against hospitalization and ICU are quite high though .. above 90% in older groups, lots of noise in younger groups, because of low numbers in those groups.

Most countries are like this. Not like Scotland. Scotland is an anomaly. Sure, we need to look for explanation. But I think we showed some solid theories.
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Old 26th January 2022, 07:04 PM   #1375
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
We need a bit more than just your personal belief. This is something anti-vaxxers have been saying since the beginning of vaccination.
I mean, this clearly doesn't constitute evidence.

https://media.gab.com/system/media_a...5187925035.jpg

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Old 26th January 2022, 07:16 PM   #1376
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Ok.

I believe we are seeing signs of ADE emerging from the data. We are 26 days into the mass infection of Israel. We'll see how well those vaccines stop people from dying. There's a few weeks lag time between infection and death.
ADE is certainly always a possibility with a large enough set of mutations but so far none of the SARS-CoV-2 variants has exhibited it from what I've seen. What has happened with Omicron is immune escape, both from prior infection and vaccination. However, T cell activation is quite robust with all the variants. At least so far. Future variants? Who knows.

That said, I do expect deaths to have a longer tail than Delta. Mostly because of the "with" v. "from" impact of the incredibly rapid spread of Omicron. It's pumped up the ratio of "withs" in the people that normally die of other causes exacerbated by the relative mildness of Omicron.
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Old 26th January 2022, 07:18 PM   #1377
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I mean, this clearly doesn't constitute evidence.

https://media.gab.com/system/media_a...5187925035.jpg
No.

Infections, not disease. You are not comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated, and you haven’t shown that disease is more severe in vaccinated etc…

In short that demonstrates nothing at all.
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Old 26th January 2022, 07:21 PM   #1378
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I mean, this clearly doesn't constitute evidence.

https://media.gab.com/system/media_a...5187925035.jpg
Evidence of what? It is evidence that Omicron exhibits a high degree of immunity escape from both vaccines and prior infection recovery. And the damn thing spreads like no tomorrow. These graphs are repeated all over the World once Omicron gets into a country.
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Old 26th January 2022, 08:43 PM   #1379
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Here's something that was just released by the state of Washington:

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Doc...Vaccinated.pdf

Quote:
COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 100,000 population from December 15 to
January 11, 2022
Note that this is recent data, not from last summer. Hospitalization rates were 5 times higher in unvaccinated 12-34 year-olds and 7 times higher in people 35 or older. And from Dec. 1 to Dec. 28th death rates were 11 times higher for unvaccinated people over 65.

This data is about as recent as you are going to find. All within the last 2 months. So it would seem to apply more to omicron than to delta.
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Old 26th January 2022, 08:57 PM   #1380
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Evidence of what? It is evidence that Omicron exhibits a high degree of immunity escape from both vaccines and prior infection recovery. And the damn thing spreads like no tomorrow. These graphs are repeated all over the World once Omicron gets into a country.
Vaccination rates in Israel aren't even particularly high. Early on they were higher than other countries because Israel rolled out the vaccines faster than any other country, but now they have a lower share than even the United States, apparently:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel

Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine:

Israel: 72%
USA: 75.5%
UK: 76.6%
Japan: 80.2%

Lately anti-vaxxers like to point to Israel because of that sharp spike in new infections, and because it's commonly perceived that Israel is "the most heavily vaccinated country in the world" because they were in the past and they are on to a 4th shot now for some people. But there's still a lot of people there who chose to not get vaccinated.

I do note that the CRF in Israel (they have a chart for that too) is showing a recent decrease, probably due to omicron.
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Old 26th January 2022, 11:47 PM   #1381
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Has there been any studies done about the all-cause mortality rate from the vaccine in the US or UK?
In other words, has there been any causes of death or serious health issues reported implicating the vaccines as the culprit?

Last edited by DetectedMotion; 26th January 2022 at 11:50 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 12:40 AM   #1382
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Originally Posted by DetectedMotion View Post
Has there been any studies done about the all-cause mortality rate from the vaccine in the US or UK?
In other words, has there been any causes of death or serious health issues reported implicating the vaccines as the culprit?
Good question. I mean, VAERS is not a study, and it explicitly states in a disclaimer that reports of adverse events following vaccination do not necessarily imply a causal relationship.

I've looked at the numbers myself, and the number of deaths reported to VAERS is less than you would expect just from the background rate of people dying. Because people die and people have health problems all the time, so you would expect that to at least continue at the normal rate following vaccination.
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Old Yesterday, 12:51 AM   #1383
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Originally Posted by DetectedMotion View Post
Has there been any studies done about the all-cause mortality rate from the vaccine in the US or UK?
In other words, has there been any causes of death or serious health issues reported implicating the vaccines as the culprit?
As far as I'm aware the only one so far is that rare blood clot problem.
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Old Yesterday, 08:59 AM   #1384
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Originally Posted by DetectedMotion View Post
Has there been any studies done about the all-cause mortality rate from the vaccine in the US or UK?
In other words, has there been any causes of death or serious health issues reported implicating the vaccines as the culprit?
These two posts, over in the thread on Corona Virus Conspiracy Theories Part III, combine a summary of what I've read with my own back-of-the-envelope calculations:
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Old Yesterday, 09:53 AM   #1385
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Originally Posted by DetectedMotion View Post
Has there been any studies done about the all-cause mortality rate from the vaccine in the US or UK?
In other words, has there been any causes of death or serious health issues reported implicating the vaccines as the culprit?
There have been all cause mortality studies in the USA but, by definition, all cause doesn't point to a cause. At best it correlates to other factors. By far the largest correlation is to Covid-19 tagged deaths. Both the UK and USA has a pretty large number of those. And any vaccine related deaths wouldn't show up in the 2020 numbers.

However, there are a few countries that vaccinated large percentages of the population prior to seeing any significant Covid-19 deaths and it would be worth examining vaccination timing v all cause deaths in those places to see if there are any signals of vaccine caused deaths. Have you run across any such analysis?
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Old Yesterday, 11:00 AM   #1386
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There is also VAERS. It's just collect reports of adverse effects. Not complete, not confirmed in any way. It's more like 'what we should look more into'.

https://openvaers.com/covid-data
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Old Yesterday, 11:36 AM   #1387
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
There is also VAERS. It's just collect reports of adverse effects. Not complete, not confirmed in any way. It's more like 'what we should look more into'.

https://openvaers.com/covid-data
Recent study on myocarditis from vaccination just published JAMA on Jan 25 here:

Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2788346

Increased risk after the second vaccination in young males. Risk decreases with age. About 1 in 14,000 in the 12-15 y/o increasing to about 1 in 10,000 in older teens, decreasing to around 1 in 20,000 in middle 20's.

Here's their summary:

Quote:
Finding: In this descriptive study of 1626 cases of myocarditis in a national passive reporting system, the crude reporting rates within 7 days after vaccination exceeded the expected rates across multiple age and sex strata. The rates of myocarditis cases were highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males aged 12 to 15 years (70.7 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), in adolescent males aged 16 to 17 years (105.9 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), and in young men aged 18 to 24 years (52.4 and 56.3 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine, respectively).
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Old Yesterday, 04:28 PM   #1388
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
There have been all cause mortality studies in the USA but, by definition, all cause doesn't point to a cause. At best it correlates to other factors.
analysis?

Comparing all-cause mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a study population would definitely point to a cause!
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Old Yesterday, 07:23 PM   #1389
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Comparing all-cause mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a study population would definitely point to a cause!
Yeah. But one has to have knowledge of whether the dead were vaccinated or not. The USA's database of vaccinated is spotty. Some states do a reasonable job of it. Others don't. So the CDC has to go with the states that are the most consistent at collecting it.

Eric Topol has a good piece in Science ripping into the pathetic state of data collection in the USA.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1074
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Old Yesterday, 07:42 PM   #1390
The Atheist
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The omicron outbreak is now established in NZ, with cases doubling every two days. We're only to 100, so I'm picking we pass the 1000 a day next weekend.

On the basis of overseas experience, I'm picking our under-funded and under-staffed hospital system will get crushed around the end of February. Quite a few precautions are in place, but the explosive nature of omicron means it will only slow the spread a small amount.
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Old Yesterday, 07:55 PM   #1391
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Yeah. But one has to have knowledge of whether the dead were vaccinated or not. The USA's database of vaccinated is spotty. Some states do a reasonable job of it. Others don't. So the CDC has to go with the states that are the most consistent at collecting it.

Such a study would not have to be a of the entire US population, and would probably be more accurate if done within a more-homogeneous cohort anyway.

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Old Today, 08:26 AM   #1392
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parents' vaccination protects children; aside regarding Topol

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Thanks to Fark for the headline:

Reduce your chances of dying from Covid by 99% with this one weird trick

Topol: get vaccine + booster. Comes with handy-dandy chart and is all age groups.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...95982117425153
Eric Topol would have been my choice for Time magazine's person of the year. His twitter feed has been a one-person fount of useful information. If anyone wants to argue that he is a shill for Big Pharma, well, good luck with that.

"It has been hard to determine, since COVID-19 vaccinations first rolled out, the extent that vaccines protect unvaccinated close contacts from infection. Now, an Israeli team has found that parental vaccination confers substantial protection for unvaccinated children in the same household. Through studying households without prior infection, consisting of two parents and unvaccinated children, the team estimated the effect of parental vaccination on the risk of infection for unvaccinated children.

The results are published in Science in the article, “Indirect protection of children from SARS-CoV-2 infection through parental vaccination.”" Genetic and Engineering News.. One could argue that omicron changes the picture now, but I am all for looking backwards in order to help project into the future.
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