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23rd January 2021, 01:44 AM | #2641 |
Mostly harmless
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23rd January 2021, 01:45 AM | #2642 |
Illuminator
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I am not a failed seer. With regard to my prediction about Biden, I was wrong. However, many worried so much about the threat to him they turned the Capital into a Green Zone. And many others worry about his health. Some are counting the days to see if he beats the record of 32 days. The presidency ages men. Biden cannot take much more "aging". So, come on man. Gimme a break. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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23rd January 2021, 01:50 AM | #2643 |
Illuminator
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No. I am carrying out his wishes to spread the message. Often, I find the delays are serendipitous. These last few days have illustrated how subtle and how nasty emfs can be. I now know how some people with serious EHS feel and why they choose to sleep in a car in the countryside. On Monday I must run some errands. I am planning on making a cap and shirt with emf reflective stuff in them that is not obvious. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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23rd January 2021, 02:03 AM | #2644 |
Schrödinger's cat
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The prediction that it would get this bad is what led governments to implement drastic measures to reduce the impact, with mixed success. You, OTOH, alone predicted that it would get much much worse. A prediction that so far has not been borne out. |
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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23rd January 2021, 11:05 AM | #2645 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, you are. You took the people to court over allegations they were targeting you with EMF and posted the records of the trial here.
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You are steeping yourself in fretful interpretations of the science postured to you by media and activists. And yes, that's the links you're posting. They're not scientists, they're activists -- as a moment's careful reading of their literature-survey methods demonstrates. This is clearly what you want to believe. But if you want anyone else to accept your claims on the subject, you will need to provide evidence and demonstrate the ability to understand and discuss it. It's clear you have none, and no interest at all in any of that. |
23rd January 2021, 11:07 AM | #2646 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, you are.
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23rd January 2021, 11:09 AM | #2647 |
Illuminator
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Just a reminder.
I stated before Covid that the coming pandemic would be stealthy and the rich and powerful would not be able to avoid it as they did with the Spanish Flu. SA had a Minister die and so Larry King has also passed on. I just saw a RT documentary on Covid long-haulers. My 2018 and current symptoms are very similar. So much so, that I think they might have been sensitized by Covid and are now actually EHS. But do you think any one will even consider doing a study? No, of course not. It is loony tunes to even suggest it. Right? Like telling flat-earthers the earth is a sphere. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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23rd January 2021, 11:22 AM | #2648 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, they did. They've been predicting exactly this sort of pandemic with exactly this sort of spread and death toll for decades. In contrast, you predicted an AIDS-like pandemic profile with up to millions or billions dead. You took the general idea that epidemics are perennial problems for the human race, extrapolated the last pandemic you were familiar with (an anomalous epidemiological profile), and gave us a death toll that's orders of magnitude off.
In other words, you did what every fake prophet does: try to predict something that anyone -- or everyone -- could predict and pretend you're special for doing so. And you couldn't even get that right.
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23rd January 2021, 11:33 AM | #2649 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Perhaps I'm not up on the subtleties here, but it looks from the above as if you're saying though you failed as a seer you're not a failed seer because you have applied a retroactive veil of vagueness.
I predicted A and A did not happen, but if you hold on long enough, a B that is tantamount to an A might happen. If it doesn't, we can still look forward to a C that seen through the right prism can be taken for a B. To fully appreciate PartSkeptic's talents we must master the transitive prophecy. |
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Like many humorless and indignant people, he is hard on everybody but himself, and does not perceive it when he fails his own ideal (Molière) A pedant is a man who studies a vacuum through instruments that allow him to draw cross-sections of the details (John Ciardi) |
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23rd January 2021, 11:37 AM | #2650 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Which it wasn't. You were basing your hypothetical pandemic on the spread of HIV. In comparison, the spread of nCoV-SARS-2 was like wildfire.
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25th January 2021, 01:43 AM | #2651 |
Illuminator
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Correlation or causation?
I am keeping my meds and diet the same, and other routines. Because I know they work. On Saturday, the cumulative effect of exposure to cell towers really hit me hard. I was not able to do much. I had to rest and sleep most of the day. Horrible nausea, brain fog and fatigue. On Sunday I was in much better shape. Almost normal (for me). Not very tired and could get things done. Did not have to have sleep to heal. In fact, at midnight I took half a sleeping tablet because my mind was now so active. Got up this Monday morning and am into work. Stomach is fine. I have a friend who is a journalist in the USA. Totally anti-Trump. Also totally anti-EMF harm. Rubbish, nonsense, and loony tunes stuff she reckons. Sigh. The Telcos have done their job well. So God can continue to use it to amplify to effects of Covid. At some point the people will wake up. And I reckon they will be angry. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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25th January 2021, 01:45 AM | #2652 |
Illuminator
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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25th January 2021, 01:55 AM | #2653 |
Illuminator
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It is simple. I have not a professional psychic. I do not claim to have a hotline to any spirit entity, or God. I get omens and sign and feelings. Unfortunately, I am not a machine, so my personal views and ego interferes with both the messages and their interpretation. So one has to look at my overall success rate on the big ones. It is good, despite the twisting and distortion in order to rate them as fails. This last one was more of a personal feeling - one in which I got no input from Tarot cards or other omens. I would have advised people not to give it credence (like betting on it.) I do not care how I rate by others. I get input from the thread which shows me how intelligent (some of you clearly are) people think. I know how some dumb people think as well. What surprises me is the total rejection that the world might be entering a very horrific phase which I am saying is going to get much worse. One reason for this is that people want to be positive, and many have been dulled by the many messages of doom from all over. This means some parts of the world react and change too slowly. They are at more risk. The USA is definitely one. My message is that there is HOPE. But after the meltdown. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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25th January 2021, 01:56 AM | #2654 |
Schrödinger's cat
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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25th January 2021, 02:00 AM | #2655 |
Schrödinger's cat
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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25th January 2021, 07:48 AM | #2656 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes indeed, it is simple. Many people can look at the world, and predict trends and developments, and get them more or less right. But if you claim to know details and the details are wrong, or contend that the prediction involves more than an evaluation of what you see, then the simple word that describes the process is "failure." Being wrong is not a variant form of being right.
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Like many humorless and indignant people, he is hard on everybody but himself, and does not perceive it when he fails his own ideal (Molière) A pedant is a man who studies a vacuum through instruments that allow him to draw cross-sections of the details (John Ciardi) |
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25th January 2021, 07:55 AM | #2657 |
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25th January 2021, 07:56 AM | #2658 |
Penultimate Amazing
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You haven't yet attempted to reason. As I keep pointing out, you're simply decrying science based on your profound misunderstanding of it, claiming all sorts of natural and supernatural abilities you can't demonstrate you possess, and then whining when the skeptics you choose as your audience don't simply take your word for it.
Reasoning begins with facts that have evidentiary potential. At worst what we get from you are anecdotes, many of which are obvious lies. At best we get cherry-picked claims you copy from dubious sources, and then can't discuss further. Then reasoning proceeds to test those facts, which you don't know how to do and abjectly refuse to learn how to do. Then with solid facts in hand, reasoning determines by sound rules of inference what propositions or conclusions might reliably follow. Instead you just call everyone else stupid or irrational if they reject your claims. None of what you're doing here gives that process more than a tantalizing illusion of a toehold. A number of people have tried to take you seriously, only to be ignored or insulted. |
25th January 2021, 08:19 AM | #2659 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, this is how many self-proclaimed psychics claim they work. It has to be portrayed as "soft" so that it can be walked back when it doesn't work.
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A claim that you can make predictions with an "overall success rate" greater than normal requires the rules to be spelled out in advance and followed methodically. In all the time you have been at this forum you have gyrated spectacularly to avoid a valid test of your claimed abilities. Today is no different.
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25th January 2021, 08:50 AM | #2660 |
Mistral, mistral wind...
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Only if "overall success rate" is something quite different from "measurable (and measured) success rate." You seem quite determined to avoid the objective latter so you can claim the subjective former. If all you want is to soothe your ego, that's a good way to do it; but I'd suggest then that the problem isn't that your "personal views and ego interfere with both the messages and their interpretation," it's that your personal views and ego are the message and their interpretation. You're not some indifferent middleman just passing along what a god wants us to hear- you're the ego playing god who just wants us to pay attention to you.
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25th January 2021, 09:48 AM | #2661 |
Penultimate Amazing
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This bears attention of a different kind. The swiftness with which any part of the world, or a specific country, responds to a crisis depends on many factors having to do with both the country and the kind of crisis. There are many avenues of preparedness that apply at once to all crises and at times to particular events. I agree that effective change in pursuing those avenues will happen at various rates, again depending on the country.
The problem in the United States has been a social and political climate in which facts matter less, and in which there is a lessening desire and/or ability to sift fact from fiction. This may very well lead to downplaying emergent risks. It may certainly lead -- and probably has led -- to political leaders glossing over the risk in the hope that they won't be responsible for responding to a catastrophe on their watch. That also speaks to a crisis of leadership. But when the root cause is simply an unwillingness to mind the facts, the solution is clearly not more "spirutualism" or other modes of thinking that substitute speculation and wishful thinking for fact. The solution is more critical thinking. |
25th January 2021, 10:11 AM | #2662 |
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You keep claiming this but you have yet to give any examples of how I, or anyone else, am guilty of "twisting and distortion".
It prompted me to look back at the lists of PartSkeptic predictions I've kept over the years, and I noticed we can now finalise the ones concerning Trump's presidency. I've decided to add the Biden prediction to that list - yes I know he's been trying to downplay it, but we all know that in the unlikely event it had been correct he would have been crowing about it as a massive hit for the rest of his life, so it seems only fair to record its actual status. I found a link to an early list, at this point the first three were hits with one miss and the rest pending. [Other posters have pointed out that 1 and 3 were pretty much already fait accompli at the time he made them, but I was being generous]. So here's the final status for PartSkeptic's predictions re Trump's term as President. Note some were dependant on earlier predictions being hits, and so failed automatically when the predecessor failed. 1. Trump will be chosen as Republican candidate. Status: Hit 2. Trump will win the Presidential election. Status: Hit 3. Trump will be sworn in as President. Status: Hit 4. There will be a very surprising event between 2 and 3. Status: Miss 5. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Miss 6. Trump will serve a full term. Status: Hit 7. Trump will do well. Status: Miss 8. 5 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Miss 9. The USA will make a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Miss 10. 9 will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Miss 11. The North Korean nuclear threat will be ended by 12th August 2018. Status: Miss 12. Biden will not live to be sworn in as President on 20th Jan 2021. Status: Miss So that's 4 hits and 8 misses, giving a final hit rate for this set of predictions of 33%. The only one where there's any leeway for interpretation is 7, but I doubt even PS's "talent" for subjective validation would rate that one a hit. |
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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25th January 2021, 11:19 AM | #2663 |
Penultimate Amazing
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And as a corollary, there have been many attempts to reach suitable clarity on what exactly is being predicted and whether a prediction is made as an ordinary prognostication or a supernatural prophecy. These attempts are almost always fruitless, leaving enough wiggle room for the claimant to shift the goalposts to achieve a hit, or to accuse any skeptics of doing the same thing. The accusation falls flat because the skeptics are the ones trying to fix the goalposts and take the data as they come. Who expects to benefit from ambiguous claims can be determined usually by who is trying to keep them ambiguous.
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Further, by Trump's own likely criteria he was a failure. It has been widely reported that Donald Trump ran for the office not expecting to win, but rather to promote his business. His businesses now lie in ruin, his properties devalued, and he's facing a likely onslaught of civil and criminal court proceedings. But whatever criteria you want to use, those had to have been laid down more than four years ago so that we don't have to quibble now over what historical facts might be cherry-picked to support one outcome or another. |
25th January 2021, 02:05 PM | #2664 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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25th January 2021, 11:37 PM | #2665 |
Schrödinger's cat
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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26th January 2021, 01:33 AM | #2666 |
Illuminator
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Just a note to add more confirmation to the causation rather than correlation.
Yesterday I went to a bank in a mall next to a large cell tower. I was there for two hours. I started feeling the effects of the radiation after half an hour. Tired, brain fog and slight stomach pain. By the time I got back home at 4:40 pm I was not well at all. I went to bed at 6:30 pm and only woke up at 7:45 am today. Muscle pain and feeling quite sick. Almost incapacitated. I went back to bed for a couple of hours. Unfortunately I MUST go to another bank. I will choose a different mall. I bought a hat and cap which I think I can line inside with foil. I realize I have become quite sensitive. No wonder some of the EHS sufferers do not want to leave their houses. Once more, like tobacco, time will tell, as the incidents mount to the point they cannot be ignored. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 01:38 AM | #2667 |
Schrödinger's cat
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Another anecdote does not "add more confirmation to the causation rather than correlation". The confirmation remains at zero.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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26th January 2021, 01:39 AM | #2668 |
Illuminator
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Just saw the Dutch rioting against Covid curfew. Economies have suffered. The rise in the stock markets is artificial and mainly due to increased money printing. It is unsustainable.
The SA version might create havoc once it spreads. And spread it will. God's plan seems to be a slow crash so people can change their ways. A fast crash would just leave people wondering what happened and why. As the casualties mount, people will be trying to survive but also wanting to know why. It took me a while to realize that God's time frame is not a regular time frames. He is patient and has all the time in the world. Modern technological humans have not seen such out of control events and never seriously anticipated them. They WILL get worse. Tighten your seat belts. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 01:45 AM | #2669 |
Illuminator
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What are epidemiological studies but a collection of anecdotes? I am a sample of one but a reliable one. You reject personal testimony as only valid in court. Why do you not accept that you are in fact hearing factual and credible evidence that emf can do harm? Especially when the science supports the harm? There is a mechanism that is well known. If you looked critically at the science it should convince you. But you believe what you want to believe and so you cherry pick. Just what the Telcos want you to do. They pay for many fake studies that show no harm because they are set up to look at the wrong effects, such are heating, and also are too short. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 01:49 AM | #2670 |
Illuminator
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If you watch only CNN, then I know what your problem is. I watch BBC, CNN, RTTV, CGTV, Al Jazeera and others. I read the internet news. I use my judgement by comparing the information to other sources. The US main stream media avoid many topics. The US public are in a bubble, even with Fox News. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 01:50 AM | #2671 |
Schrödinger's cat
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As I have explained to you many times, anecdotal evidence is sufficient to form an hypothesis and test it. It is not sufficient to reach a conclusion, as you insist on doing.
Anecdotal evidence was sufficient to form the hypothesis that there was a link between smoking and cancer, but it was (easily obtained) objective evidence that confirmed that hypothesis. Objective evidence for your hypothesis of a link between emf and ... whatever symptoms you are claiming are due to it today would also be easily obtained if that hypothesis was correct, but there is still none in the scientific literature despite many studies (and who funded them is irrelevant if the scientific method was scrupulously followed). |
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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26th January 2021, 02:03 AM | #2672 |
Illuminator
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@Pixel42.
Your list is an example of the selective distortion I talk about. (I spent a minute or two trying to spell "talk". I had no idea what came after "t" - an example of brain fog) . You use certain criteria and do a hit/fail test. Example Trump will be successful. Much as I disliked a number of Trumps polices and global warming was one of them, he did boost the economy until Covid hit. I would give a 80% success rate domestically even though globally he set back climate change. By comparison, I say that Biden will be a disaster, much as I support many of his policies, such as global warming, removing the Muslim travel ban and so on. I do not think he will address the underlying inequity and the corporate lobbying and control. He may just go to war (not a prediction, although you seize on some personal opinions as such). |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 02:10 AM | #2673 |
Illuminator
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You are so wrong. Do you not understand that corporates fund studies to disprove others? They did it with the initial 1994 Henry Lai study showing DNA damage. They paid another scientist to replicate the study to show the results were wrong. When the second scientist confirmed Lai's work they then tried to discredit both scientists. They learned never to disprove a study showing harm by repeating it. Are you not following the EHT lawsuit against the FCC? With thousands of studies showing harm? A trajectory familiar to many toxins that were thought harmless only to be shown to be harmful. So you would be quite happy to be subjected to 3,000 uW/sqm meter, as I was, for 24 hours a day for 3 months? |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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26th January 2021, 04:53 AM | #2674 |
Philosopher
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Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that Henry Lai was right, and that cell-phone radiation damages our DNA.
How does that relate to the list of symptoms you ascribe to exposure to EMF? Are they a result of damage to your DNA, and, if that is the case, how do they manifest so quickly after that exposure? You appear to be claiming that a 15-minute dose of cell-phone radiation is enough to permanently damage your DNA. Does Lai's research support your conclusion? |
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26th January 2021, 05:24 AM | #2675 |
Watching . . . always watching.
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Get on the ball!
Q: O magic 8-Ball, is empirical, objective evidence a requirement for proving a hypothesis? Magic 8-Ball: Yes. A succinct and definite answer. Though I stand by my hypothesis that Ouija Boards, tarot cards, bird entrails, tea leaves, and the Magic 8-Ball have equal predictive value (zero), the latter's signal advantage is that it requires no so-called interpretation. |
26th January 2021, 05:52 AM | #2676 |
Mistral, mistral wind...
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Well, let's review that list, shall we?
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I'm tired of the bombs, tired of the bullets, tired of the crazies on TV; I'm the aviator, a dream's a dream whatever it seems Deep Purple- "The Aviator" Life was a short shelf that came with bookends- Stephen King |
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26th January 2021, 08:15 AM | #2677 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I understand that you believe this. I also know that you believe this because, not being any sort of scientist, you are simply quoting certain activist literature, thinking it makes you look smart. In order to "disprove" something contrary to the facts, one would have to abandon the scientific method, and this would be ultimately detectable regardless of the funding source. But your authors aren't scientists either. They're anti-5G activists, and they've been protesting every "G" since it all started. They know they can't win on the science, so they take the easier route of just being anti-capitalist. That's a much easier sell.
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Further, "shown to be harmful" is not a viable scientific conclusion with respect to your literature. The body of "thousands" of studies commonly cited by 5G activists doesn't point to any coherent set of "toxins" or one coherent set of symptoms or effects. It's a hodge-podge of individual results, all different, none of them revealing any underlying theory of causation that rises higher than, "Those evil corporations are making us all sick." In true activist form, these purported scientific results are just lumped together under the umbrella theory that those are just all the ways 5G makes you sick. It's junk science. When "thousands" of studies all go a different direction, you didn't actually discover anything.
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26th January 2021, 08:41 AM | #2678 |
Penultimate Amazing
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By what econometric standard do you claim that? Prior to the pandemic, the Trump administration's major contribution the U.S. economy was a deficit-financed tax cut in 2017, favoring mostly big business. Contrary to prediction, it did not "trickle down," as The Economist reported last year. Post-2017, business investment in traditional economic sectors was at an all-time low. The funds generated by the tax cuts were generally used to by back companies' own stock, which generates activity in the U.S. equities market. But as economists are forever reminding us, the stock market is not the economy. It generally benefits only those with disposable income to invest in it, which is less than 10% of all Americans. And now the United States is sitting on a budget deficit amounting to trillions -- with a T -- of dollars, somewhere around double what it was during the Great Recession.
Further, as much as Trump fans would like to ignore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the manner in which the Trump administration reacted to it has profound economic effects. Trump is not responsible for causing the pandemic. But he is responsible for responding to it in a way that failed to alleviate anticipated economic effects, if not outright contributed to ongoing economic failure. As much as Trump fans want to believe a crashed economy was unavoidable, the examples of other countries show that not to be the case. A President's decisions in the face of catastrophe are part of his overall record, whether they favor your beliefs or not. And note that you're cherry-picking the data. You made a blanket prediction. Then, out of all the ways in which a President might be said to "do well," you cherry-pick the ones you think he performed well on and simply disregard the specific ways in which he was a disaster. But econometrics is not a cut-and-dried field. So please tell us by what metrics you judge his economic policy a success.
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Donald Trump didn't do any of that either when he was President, yet you claim he had a strong overall record. In his last few days as President, he rescinded his order that prevented ex-government officials from lobbying for corporations for five years after their terms ended, freeing up his administration officials to do exactly the thing he said he was going to stop. Why are the criteria for Presidential success different depending on which President you're talking about? Are we finished pretending you're not just a Trump fan?
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26th January 2021, 09:14 AM | #2679 |
Mistral, mistral wind...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Embedded and embattled, reporting from Mississippi
Posts: 5,203
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I have a prediction of my own- that if Biden does indeed go to war, PS's "personal opinion" will suddenly become a prediction that he will want to claim credit for as a hit to add to his list. After all, his line between divine inspiration and regular prognostication seems to be fluid enough that there's no reason PS can't later decide that that actually was a message from god that he mistook at the time for a personal opinion. I would guess that a person who claims that god has used him to send a message to humanity doesn't have any incentive to come up with a standard by which to doubt that, or any test that isn't simply self-serving affirmation.
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I'm tired of the bombs, tired of the bullets, tired of the crazies on TV; I'm the aviator, a dream's a dream whatever it seems Deep Purple- "The Aviator" Life was a short shelf that came with bookends- Stephen King |
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26th January 2021, 10:48 AM | #2680 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 38,373
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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