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18th January 2021, 04:55 PM | #441 |
Penultimate Amazing
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My Daily News Report from the NY Times mentioned that the vax studies state 95% efficiency, but they had only 1 person get seriously sick from covid of that 5% . But what was the rate their control group? Over how much time? I don't think America gets 1:23,000 seriously sick in the same time frame.
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18th January 2021, 05:22 PM | #442 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Location: Canada, eh?
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Canada has enough doses to cover 400% of the population.
So, we win? I guess? We're still slow to actually distribute the vaccine (and because we don't manufacture it locally, we may be at a lower priority to receive it from the manufacturers). Not sure what the plan is to distribute the extra doses. (Dump them in the oceans? Start vaccinating polar bears? I assume we'll probably end up donating some of the extra to other countries.) |
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18th January 2021, 06:07 PM | #443 |
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They're still talking about my group being vaccinated by the end of February, but we'll see. And that's just the first dose, will any of us see a second dose or are they just going to give us one and say, job done? I won't consider myself protected until two or three weeks after the second dose.
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18th January 2021, 06:14 PM | #444 |
Nasty Woman
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18th January 2021, 06:18 PM | #445 |
Nasty Woman
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18th January 2021, 06:22 PM | #446 |
Nasty Woman
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18th January 2021, 06:33 PM | #447 |
Illuminator
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I had a virtual doc visit to get a new BP prescription. Other than that I'm not on any meds. Since I'm retired and don't have a lot of physical interactions with people I told the doc that I'd like to get the vaccine but would rather people that have to interact with others get it before me. While I'm at higher risk from age and BP, I'm at low exposure risk as well as low exposure risk to others in the event I somehow contracted it. So better younger people get the vaccine t if they are in a group that is socially interactive and more likely to spread it to others.
It's not just a question of likely hood of serious disease but also risk of spreading it to others. And health care workers exposed to Covid-19 patients should be at the top. |
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18th January 2021, 06:59 PM | #448 |
Nasty Woman
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I feel the same. I didn't mention I'm a health care worker when looking for vaccine because even though I am, my exposure risk is low.
What was frustrating was hearing from one of our city counsel members in an announcement on the Nextdoor web page that we should check with the state web site. I did and it said I was in the category they were now vaccinating. Also our gov made a similar announcement that has been repeated a dozen times on the KUOW public radio tonight. But there is no place I can actually get the vaccine. My complaint is more that such bad messaging is reminiscent of Trump telling people anyone can get tested when they could not. Also Inslee demanded providers not hold their vaccine doses back when it is the state that hasn't shipped all their doses out. |
18th January 2021, 07:09 PM | #449 |
The Grammar Tyrant
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18th January 2021, 07:16 PM | #450 |
Nasty Woman
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Which is what I just said.
I repeat: "Then they should not be using just the age as a category because a lot of people 80 and over are not at deaths door." Does it need a clarification? The article's headline should not be suggesting just being over age 80 is the key factor. It is over age 80 and otherwise very frail. |
18th January 2021, 07:32 PM | #451 |
The Grammar Tyrant
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Did you even read the headline?
Norway adjusts advice after vaccine deaths but isn’t alarmed Do you see an 80 in there? Nope. If you're referring to my comment, I expect people to read the article and not knee-jerk to improper conclusions. If they do that instead, I could not care less. |
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18th January 2021, 08:57 PM | #452 |
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First paragraph:
Quote:
No, they say that in the next paragraph without any mention that said doctors need not be bothered unless you are inquiring about someone over 80 in a care home. The article should have been more clear than to say people are dying, but don't worry. There are a number of ways that headline could have been written without sending everyone to their GPs to see if grandma should get vaccinated. Doctors and other healthcare providers are already overwhelmed with calls asking questions about stuff going out in the news. Reporters cover their asses by dismissing anything they stirred up with the message, check with your doctor. |
19th January 2021, 02:13 AM | #453 |
Nitpicking dilettante
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No, as Darat says, that's not happening here. The reason I mentioned it, though I didn't explain it well, is to highlight how things change. At the time of smallpox, a 2% risk of death from the inoculation was way better than 17% from catching the disease. With Covid-19, we're looking at 2% being higher than the risk of death from the disease (depending on age, of course), and the risk from the vaccine is pretty close to zero.
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19th January 2021, 07:55 AM | #454 |
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Not at all. I re-read your post, after reading Darat's response, as well as now, and your wording was clear enough. The confusion was entirely mine, and entirely uncalled for, because although I don't know all that much about this virus-and-vaccine business, I do know enough to know this basic difference between that original (pox) vaccine and the current lot, and should have known better than to end up concluding that!
Quote:
Sure, broadly I agree, obviously, but isn't that kind of apples to oranges? Like I was saying upthread to The Atheist, that 17% is per cent of those infected, not per cent of the entire population, while that 2% is per cent of the entire population (that is inoculated). Back in those days this difference may not have been significant, because I guess most people did end up getting infected, but today it is possible, at least in theory, for the high-risk category folks -- well, some of them at any rate -- to sequester themselves effectively, for a few months more, so that the percentage of these that do contract the virus might be very significantly lesser than 100%. But I guess that's more by way of a nitpick than anything else, because the assumption that the sequestering has been effective is itself a risk: Who knows that some infection hasn't crept in by some route or the other, somehow? So that, absolutely, I take the larger point you've been making here, that the risk from the virus itself probably far exceeds the risk from the vaccine, even for the elderly -- unless they're otherwise "frail" and at risk, other than just by virtue of their age. |
19th January 2021, 11:48 AM | #455 |
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I used to lecture on this, and the figures I was using were 1-2% mortality rate from variolation compared to ~30% from actual smallpox. The history is quite interesting. There was an experiment where a group of prisoners were variolated (without consent, naturally) and then exposed to virulent smallpox. They survived, or at least a lot more of them survived than would have done if they'd just been exposed to smallpox. So far as I know there was no control group! Once the results of that became known the royal family were variolated and it kind of caught on. I used to say to the students, imagine how afraid people were of smallpox that they'd take a definite 1-2% risk of death over a 30% risk from a disease they could try to avoid catching.
I believe Jenner nearly died from being variolated as a child, which drove him to research vaccinia. At least he only challenged his co-opted experimental subject (his gardener's son) with variolation, not actual virulent smallpox! |
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19th January 2021, 12:26 PM | #456 |
Illuminator
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Making the right decision: Benjamin Franklin's son dies of smallpox in 1736
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2653186/ "In 1736 I lost one of my sons, a fine boy of four years old, by the smallpox taken in the common way. I long regretted bitterly and still regret that I had not given it to him by inoculation. This I mention for the sake of the parents who omit that operation, on the supposition that they should never forgive themselves if a child died under it; my example showing that the regret may be the same either way, and that, therefore, the safer should be chosen." |
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19th January 2021, 12:48 PM | #457 |
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19th January 2021, 01:07 PM | #458 |
Illuminator
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Yeah. Fascinating story about the Boston minister, Cotton Mather who first promoted it in the Colonies. While best known for his involvement in the Salem Witch Trials, he learned about smallpox variolation from a slave, given to him by his congregation. He actively promoted variolation but was met with a great deal of resistance by the anti-vaxers of the day that considered it to be bypassing God's will.
By Franklin's time it was still an infrequent, though accepted, practice. One can imagine the horrible choice parents had to make. |
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19th January 2021, 01:19 PM | #459 |
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They probably did not consider it a horrible choice at the time..
A Great if it works.. B One less mouth to feed. |
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Maybe later.... |
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19th January 2021, 01:23 PM | #460 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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19th January 2021, 01:25 PM | #461 |
Illuminator
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It was generally done in the early stages of a smallpox outbreak since they had to get the pus from someone that was suffering a relatively mild case. But it was a pretty awful decision since it was their own kids. Some did. Many didn't. I'd hate to make that decision.
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19th January 2021, 01:27 PM | #462 |
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19th January 2021, 03:20 PM | #463 |
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19th January 2021, 03:32 PM | #464 |
Illuminator
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A possible anomalously large number of allergic reactions to the Moderna vaccine was reported in San Diego.
Quote:
Quote:
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19th January 2021, 04:04 PM | #465 |
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Quote:
The original vaccination was indeed with cowpox - cowpox is vaccina, where the name comes from. But before that there was variolation. I believe this originated in China and gradually worked its way west, with some variations in technique, aided by the wave of oriental exploration of these times, the silk road and so on. I think the original Chinese method was blowing dried smallpox scabs up the nose, but the method used in Europe was different, possibly a scratch on the skin? Heck, I mostly got this from some good Wikipedia articles in the first place, do your own research as they say! It's an interesting read. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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20th January 2021, 03:18 AM | #466 |
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20th January 2021, 08:41 AM | #467 |
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I believe he challenged the boy by variolation, not with virulent smallpox (which would have been unconscionable). Variolation normally makes someone ill. James Phipps did not get sick.
The fact that cowpox was protective against smallpox was already known, and the deliberate use of cowpox as a prophylactic in the face of a smallpox outbreak had already been done. Jenner became aware of this and did a challenge experiment, but using variolation as the challenge. |
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20th January 2021, 09:18 AM | #468 |
The Grammar Tyrant
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Small, but encouraging studies on longer-term immunity: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...ovid-immunity/
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20th January 2021, 09:33 AM | #469 |
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20th January 2021, 12:28 PM | #470 |
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It's the technique that was used to protect against smallpox before vaccination was discovered. It used live virus but given by a non-standard route. It produced a (usually) milder illness that only killed 1-2% of people rather than 30% of people. It was quite widespread in the 17th and 18th centuries after being "imported" from the far east.
Contrast the challenge that was used to test out variolation in the prison population (putting people who actually had clinical smallpox in with the variolated prisoners) and that used by Jenner to test out vaccination (variolation of the vaccinia-treated boy). |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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20th January 2021, 02:25 PM | #471 |
Observer of Phenomena
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Amazon has written to POTUS offering the use of their supply and distribution network for the vaccination effort.
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20th January 2021, 03:34 PM | #472 |
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20th January 2021, 04:00 PM | #473 |
Nasty Woman
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And here in not-quite-over Trumplandia we're still being told by multiple sources (gov, DoH, health care agencies) that everyone over 65 can now get vaccine but they can't. There isn't any unless you are over 70 or a health care worker or live in a nursing home.
I don't know what these people were thinking. |
20th January 2021, 05:31 PM | #474 |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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20th January 2021, 07:16 PM | #475 |
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So take that quantum equation and recalculate the wave by a factor of hoopty doo! The answer is not my problem, it's yours. Three Word Story Wisdom |
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20th January 2021, 09:26 PM | #476 |
Penultimate Amazing
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20th January 2021, 09:57 PM | #477 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Just took my first Pfizer poke today, and scheduled for Feb 10 for the second course.
Guys, don't wait to be contacted. You'll be getting yours around late spring if you wait to be called. Register and call local distribution sites yourself. While many sites are in short supply, others are sitting on stockpiles with no one scheduling appointments. |
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20th January 2021, 10:52 PM | #478 |
Nasty Woman
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That is not the issue. I'm talking about WA State gov, DoH, and health care providers.
So here's the latest: After I checked (and I've been checking for a couple days) the sites said I didn't qualify. In the meantime, they started one at a time adopting the Gov and DoH rule that I would qualify. I checked again, still said I didn't qualify. Then more people on the Nextdoor site said they had gotten vaccine. I check again. This time it says I do qualify but there are no more appointments available. The Gov and the state health department decided it was too confusing so let's just open the vaccine up to everyone 65 and older or younger people with multiple risk factors. That meant a flood of people were eligible for a few drops of vaccine. Piss poor managing of something that could have been simple. The state developed this pages and pages long plan when there wasn't enough vaccine and not enough places and people to administer the vaccine. 2/3 of our state vaccine is still clogged up somewhere in the pipeline. Did they address that? **** no. People with few risk factors are getting vaccine while people with more risk factors didn't hit up the clinics at the right time to get vaccinated. Elderly people who aren't tech savvy can't get a vaccine at all unless someone helps them. I've been in the same HMO for decades. Do you think they might have identified their patients who had high risk. Hell no. And every place you try to get a vaccine is too swamped with people trying so they can't answer the phones and their web sites crashed. That's how well the state planned this out and they've known for months and months they would need a plan. No they have a plan on paper and it's missing the key ingredient, a place people can get vaccinated and a better distribution system than one which leaves 2/3 of the vaccine undelivered. |
20th January 2021, 11:04 PM | #479 |
Penultimate Amazing
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20th January 2021, 11:15 PM | #480 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I'd like to introduce you to New Jersey, USA. We don't know what the **** we're doing.
Your choices are sit on your thumbs till they get their heads out of their asses, or organize it for them. Choose wisely, my fellow Murcans. ETA: the site I went to had about a dozen other scheduled people waiting there. We were in and out in about 20 minutes. since no one knows what to do, the site sits largely unused because no one knows they can contact directly. |
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"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" -Mark Twain "Half of what he said meant something else, and the other half didn't mean anything at all" -Rosencrantz, on Hamlet |
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