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29th January 2021, 11:34 AM | #521 |
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Vermont also had a refrigeration breakdown with Moderna, but apparently it was minor enough that after consultation they decided that the vaccine was not spoiled, which is a relief considering how slow the apportionment has been.
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29th January 2021, 12:21 PM | #522 |
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Perhaps. But if I remember correctly, the 66% effectiveness for a single shot is more effective than the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines after a single dose.
I wonder if people think a booster is needed for the J&J 'single shot' vaccines, that they might try mixing up the vaccines. (For example, there are studies going on regarding mixing Astrazenica and Sputnik vaccine doses... I think the theory is that the body might develop an immunity to the non-covid components in the first dose, which means a booster with the same vaccine might not be as effective.) |
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29th January 2021, 12:33 PM | #523 |
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As I mentioned in the other thread http://www.internationalskeptics.com...0#post13362890 the Pfizer vaccine seems pretty effective (>85%) after one dose. Not known for how long, though.
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29th January 2021, 12:55 PM | #524 |
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I stand corrected. (Unfortunately the media still seems to be publishing a lower effectiveness for the first dose of Pfizer.)
I think I was actually wrong about Moderna too... now that I've googled things (rather than relying on memory) it seems like the first dose of it provides > 80% protection as well. |
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29th January 2021, 02:10 PM | #525 |
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It's worth pointing out that these vaccine effectiveness trials are all done in minimal time so those numbers could sort themselves out to be quite different with a larger population.
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29th January 2021, 06:09 PM | #526 |
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Which is why there should be no rush for most people in countries, like Australia, where the number of cases is very low (as in single digits per day or zero) to get vaccinated. There is a significant risk that people getting certain vaccines now will be told they have to have another one later because the one they had was not very effective and the other one has always been so much better. For example, some vaccines may not stop people from transmitting the virus to other people.
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29th January 2021, 06:59 PM | #527 |
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29th January 2021, 07:33 PM | #528 |
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I wish it were unarguable. However, I think there is a some merit to the argument that the countries with the most cases should just suffer and die because they screwed up royally. But we (I say "we" because I'm in such a country) are also a huge threat to the world since we're a breeding ground for the next resistant variant.
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29th January 2021, 09:11 PM | #529 |
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29th January 2021, 09:19 PM | #530 |
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29th January 2021, 09:24 PM | #531 |
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29th January 2021, 11:00 PM | #532 |
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The argument would be more compelling if there were a significant risk from the vaccine that is even close to that from the disease. If someone offered me a mediocre vaccine right now, I'd run not walk to the nearest vaccinator, and if it turned out later that a better one was needed, I'd run back. People get so hung up over all or nothing.
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30th January 2021, 01:02 AM | #533 |
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30th January 2021, 03:19 AM | #534 |
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30th January 2021, 04:50 AM | #535 |
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30th January 2021, 04:53 AM | #536 |
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I don't see how any vaccine could. If a person, A, vaccinated, comes into contact with person B, who is actively infectious and spends some time together, then Person A might still unwittingly pass on the virus picked up from B to Person C, shortly after, assuming A hasn't had a chance to change their clothes or have a shower.
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30th January 2021, 05:03 AM | #537 |
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Saturday progress update
Latest updates from: The Bloomberg tracker
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For comparison, a week ago 19.8 million shots had been given and the rate was 982,739 doses per day. 10.1 million shots were given in the last 7 days, compared with 6.8 million the previous week. The Our World in Data tracker Israel remains in the lead with 53.54 doses administered per 100 people so far. 34.22% of the population have received at least one dose and 19.32% have received both doses. These are amazing figures. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/ The figures for new infections and active cases appear to be falling in Israel, and even the deaths seem to have started trending down in the last few days. |
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30th January 2021, 05:08 AM | #538 |
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30th January 2021, 05:10 AM | #539 |
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The mask issue. If I have to go to a hazardous place I'll put the surgical mask over my two-tier cloth mask bought from Finlayson which is very comfortable (they disclaim covid protection) I find I start breathing through my mouth. This strikes me as somehow abnegating the point of wearing a mask as when you breathe through your nose you are safer from germs and dust because of the small hairs filters, whereas when one mouth breathes any virus goes wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am straight to your throat, where the protein spikes start digging in in gay abandon.
ETA: Just looked this up and it seems Finlayson are claiming their masks are 80% effective and also three-tiered, not two.
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I have the same mask as the guy in the picture, and also a second one in black and white. After use, I hang them in the sauna to sterilise them in the heat. (The product does have a disclaimer on the label that it is not to be assumed to be safe against covid. I suppose they have to cover their backs.) I read in a newspaper that after a machine or handwash of a cloth mask, the cotton fibres bind more closely together to afford even better protection than when new. Notandum I only bought the first mask because I stupidly forgot the surgical masks and had to wander around a shopping centre for a couple of hours whilst my winter tyres were being fitted, so I bought one urgently. Lucky me, there was a 20% discount that day as the place was near deserted, thanks to everyone staying away from shopping malls. The next time I was there awaiting my car oil change, I took the opportunity to buy a spare one. |
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30th January 2021, 07:36 AM | #540 |
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That's not how it works, unless you're only talking about human bodies acting as fomites, which they don't as a general rule. The virus needs to get into human cells to multiply. Someone is infectious because the virus is multiplying in their cells. In general vaccines stop this from happening, however nobody is quite sure yet whether this applies to the new covid vaccines. The possibility still exists that the vaccine could prevent the virus infecting cells deep in the lungs, but still allow cells in the upper respiratory tract to become infected and so produce more virus which the asymptomatic, vaccinated person could still excrete. Nobody knows yet whether or not this happens because the prime purpose of the initial vaccines is to stop the vaccinated person themselves becoming sick. It's perfectly possible that at least some of the vaccines prevent infection full stop and therefore the vaccinated person will not pass the virus on. But even if this does prove to be a problem, intranasal vaccines that promote the formation of IgA will solve it. |
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30th January 2021, 09:57 AM | #541 |
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That raises an interesting question. If you've already been vaccinated, and then subsequently a 'better' vaccine -- however you might define "better" -- became available, can you grab that as well? Not as a matter of policy, not as a matter of ethics, but as a matter of "will the better vaccine you're now taking work just as well as it would have -- and might there be any higher risk of side effects than there would have been -- had you not taken the first vaccine at all"? |
30th January 2021, 10:18 AM | #542 |
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There seems to be a general consensus that it might or might not help, but probably wouldn't hurt. There's also discussion about whether people might need covid vaccinations on an annual or other regular schedule, as with flu shots.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...oost-immunity/ |
30th January 2021, 10:20 AM | #543 |
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Bear in mind that the eventual goal of a vaccination programme is not to protect individuals, although of course it does that inter alia, it is to stop community spread of the pathogen and so eliminate it from the population. People expounding an angry fatalism about this prospect are simply wrong.
What will really protect you as an individual is the elimination of community spread. Your being vaccinated of course comtributes to that objective, but your own personal vaccine is not what you need to think about. It's the elimination of community spread. When that happens you will be safe and it won't matter which vaccine you had in the first place. Until that objective is achieved you should continue to be careful what you do, as nobody can assume with 100% certainty that they personally are protected. It's all a bit chaotic at the moment with many governments muddling along in the generally right direction without having much idea of an overall strategy, but as case incidence comes down things should become clearer. Get vaccinated, but watch the incidence figures for your community as your real guide to how well you're protected. If the virus isn't circulating, that's the best protection you can have. It will get there in the end. Yes we'll be dealing with covid for a while to come, but this should take the form of jumping on new introductions that have evaded whatever border controls are in force. Not continually firefighting permanent community transmission. If annual vaccinations are required this should be with a view to depriving newly-introduced virus of an easy target of susceptible people, it should not be because there is ongoing community transmission. That can, should and eventually will end. |
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30th January 2021, 10:36 AM | #544 |
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30th January 2021, 10:53 AM | #545 |
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Good to know, thanks. And that article was an interesting read. (Although that article was, I think, more about two different vaccines that are more or less similar in potency. They were discussing whether the difference per se might make things better. I was asking not so much about a mixed-dose strategy, as about accessing an actually superior vaccine afterwords. What I was wondering is whether if someone were to take a 60% effective vaccine today (someone in China, say), or a vaccine that may not work for some specific strains, and subsequently, in a couple months' time, another vaccine that gives 90%+ protection and covers all the strains became available, then would the fact that this someone has already taken the inferior vaccine somehow be unable to take full advantage of the newer vaccine? Just idle curiosity, because at the moment at least there's not much chance of that happening, or if it did happen then being so freely available, not any time soon.) Well said. That's something we should keep in mind. (Although, and pardon my nitpick, I don't suppose the current lot, that do suppress/mitigate symptoms but may or may not stop incidence, enable that particular end, at all.) |
30th January 2021, 12:23 PM | #546 |
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30th January 2021, 12:27 PM | #547 |
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That's incredibly unlikely.
Usually one is not contagious until one has incubated the infection. It's all about the numbers. Flu vaccine (and now COVID) doesn't prevent all infections. Sometimes they just modify the disease so one can still pass it on when asymptomatic or only mildly ill. I had my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine this morning. I'm relieved to maybe not dying from COVID if I get it. And after the second dose in 3 weeks I'll be even more relieved. I don't need it to prevent the infection, just to prevent me dying from it. |
30th January 2021, 12:33 PM | #548 |
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While breathing through one's nose does filter out dust and other particulates, it doesn't lessen the chance of COVID which more than likely finds the nose the best portal of entry.
That's based on my reading multiple sources but not on some specific research. It is certain however that one's nose is not a barrier to infection. |
30th January 2021, 12:39 PM | #549 |
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Currently the vaccine administrators are telling people to get the second dose using the same brand only because there is no data on mixing vaccine types.
In general, killed vaccines would boost previous killed vaccines. A killed vaccine might however, lessen the effectiveness of a subsequent live vaccine. We have a couple vaccines where that is the case. And dengue vaccine/disease has some complicated interactions. We'll know more a year from now after more data is collected. |
30th January 2021, 12:43 PM | #550 |
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30th January 2021, 01:14 PM | #551 |
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The best reference would probably be current vaccines. There are two shingles vaccines, but getting the old one doesn't prevent you from getting the new one (in fact, it's recommended). There are two pneumonia vaccines, and authorities used to recommend getting both, although now they apparently think the one with broader coverage is enough. There are several different flu vaccines, and we're supposed to get a new shot every year. As a non-doc, I think the idea is that the vaccines incite the same response in the body, even if they achieve it by different means.
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30th January 2021, 02:10 PM | #552 |
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Those are all different situations.
The second shingles vaccine is a killed vaccine, the first is live. I didn't know it was recommended to get the second one if you'd had the first. I'll look into it. As for the pneumovax, the newer ones have more strains covered. We have an age when vaccinated formula for who needs an additional dose with more strains. And there are more than 2. You get an annual flu vaccine to stay current on the circulating strains which drift or shift genetically from year to year. |
30th January 2021, 03:27 PM | #553 |
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Don't be silly. Quite a few countries have eliminated the pathogen from their populations, without even having a vaccine. Scotland did it last summer, only we stupidly let it back in again. Having vaccines makes it much more doable. It's stubborn fatalism like yours that will be the biggest barrier to success. Decreasing hospitalisations and preventing mortality is certainly a major goal of vaccination, but the primary goal is the elimination of community spread of the pathogen, which of course accomplishes both. |
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30th January 2021, 04:52 PM | #554 |
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Quite a few? Name them.
None so far has kept the virus out and only 2 that I know of Oz and NZ have even come close. Of course the virus returned to Scotland. It is no longer possible this virus will be eliminated from any country. But even if a country could, like NZ hopes to, you can't function forever in isolation from the rest of the world. It's not fatalism, it's a knowledge based conclusion. And don't try to weasel out of what you said:
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30th January 2021, 06:34 PM | #555 |
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Early study (not peer reviewed) potentially showing that the South African variant cuts vaccine efficacy in half: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...esist-vaccines
With the Brazil P1 variant having what appears to be a more vaccine-avoiding mutation, none of this is good news. |
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30th January 2021, 06:43 PM | #556 |
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I'm scheduled to get the vaccine on Thursday. It feels wrong because there are definitely people who are older and far more deserving. Before they jab me, Imma shout "YOLO!" That should make me the first person in history to say that prior to doing something smart. After they jab me, I want to pretend to have a seizure, but I know I'll wimp out.
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30th January 2021, 08:58 PM | #557 |
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Keep in mind that, according to the article, the "cut vaccine efficacy in half" claim is for a study involving one particular vaccine (Novavax). It would not be surprising if the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines also were less effective, but we don't yet know if their effectiveness would be "cut in half" also. (The article also pointes out that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine doesn't work as well on the South African variant, but it isn't half as effective.)
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30th January 2021, 09:30 PM | #558 |
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Dodger Stadium mass COVID-19 vaccination site temporarily shuts down after protesters block entrance
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First Amendment right? I know they have the right to state their opinions, but do they have the right to impede others who are going about their lives? I don't think blocking a public road should be protected by the First Amendment. |
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31st January 2021, 12:53 AM | #559 |
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31st January 2021, 12:59 AM | #560 |
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