IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Coronavirus , vaccines

Reply
Old 6th January 2021, 12:28 PM   #281
Planigale
Philosopher
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 6,753
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
There are a few other things that help them out, the structure of their society comes into it.
I thought I would avoid contentious issues like who is getting prioritised for vaccination.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 12:46 PM   #282
Nessie
Penultimate Amazing
 
Nessie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 15,720
My wife, who works in a respite care home, but is off work and the home is closed anyway, is getting the vaccine next week. I also work in care, visit up to 30 homes a day on a round and no sign of my first appointment.
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic
Nessie is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 04:13 PM   #283
Planigale
Philosopher
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 6,753
Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
My wife, who works in a respite care home, but is off work and the home is closed anyway, is getting the vaccine next week. I also work in care, visit up to 30 homes a day on a round and no sign of my first appointment.
I think there is a certain randomness about getting vaccinated. Certainly a lot of admin staff were queuing up for the vaccine this morning who are no way front line. The consensus amongst my colleagues who are very much front line is we have got this far on PPE and would have waited a bit longer to get vaccinated if this meant high risk elderly people were done first. (Since refusing the hospital vaccination would only mean someone in management got it, not someone deserving, we all took it up the deltoid like good employees.)
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 05:25 PM   #284
xjx388
Moderator
 
xjx388's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 11,360
This is heartening...

I have had several medical professionals who we reached out to who refused the vaccine because they want to make sure the vulnerable patients get access first.

True heroes, I think.
__________________
Hello.
xjx388 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 06:03 PM   #285
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
 
rjh01's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 28,092
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I think there is a certain randomness about getting vaccinated. Certainly a lot of admin staff were queuing up for the vaccine this morning who are no way front line. The consensus amongst my colleagues who are very much front line is we have got this far on PPE and would have waited a bit longer to get vaccinated if this meant high risk elderly people were done first. (Since refusing the hospital vaccination would only mean someone in management got it, not someone deserving, we all took it up the deltoid like good employees.)
I think it is reasonable that people who work with vulnerable people should get the vaccine first. That way if the worker gets exposed to the virus in their private life they are far less likely to pass it on to these vulnerable people. I also suggest that the worker's families also should have priority so it would less likely for the workers to be exposed in the first place.

Edit. Let me put the above in another way. If a worker gets Covid 19 in their private life what is the chance of them passing it on to others at work? This includes to other workers and to the vulnerable people they work for?


Unrelated question. Would a person who has been vaccinated, but not otherwise ever exposed to the virus, test positive to Covid 19?
__________________
This signature is for rent.

Last edited by rjh01; 6th January 2021 at 06:05 PM.
rjh01 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 07:11 PM   #286
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Segnosaur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
This is heartening...

I have had several medical professionals who we reached out to who refused the vaccine because they want to make sure the vulnerable patients get access first.

True heroes, I think.
I respect their bravery, but is that really the best way to protect people?

Given that a doctor/nurse/support worker/etc. is going to be more mobile in society (e.g. travelling to/from work, grocery shopping, etc.), and will potentially be in contact with dozens if not hundreds of patients (many of whom would not have been vaccinated) they could serve as a vector, bringing covid into medical institutions (or, alternatively, transmitting the virus OUT of the institution too.)
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 08:12 PM   #287
Chanakya

 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,704
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
... Would a person who has been vaccinated, but not otherwise ever exposed to the virus, test positive to Covid 19?

Great question.

I think the answer's Yes and No. Yes, to the antibody test, No to the regular test.

But that's an entirely uninformed, common-sense, and entirely obvious answer, that I couldn't resist putting up. Like you, I'll look out for what answer better-informed people give to your question.
Chanakya is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 10:21 PM   #288
EHocking
Philosopher
 
EHocking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 8,594
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I think it is reasonable that people who work with vulnerable people should get the vaccine first. That way if the worker gets exposed to the virus in their private life they are far less likely to pass it on to these vulnerable people.
This is not necessarily so.
Short version is that as yet we don’t know.
Slightly longer version is,
Vaccines like Pfizer’s and Moderna’s are injected into deep muscle and provide so-called systemic immunity. But they may still leave areas, particularly nasal mucous passages, where the virus is relatively free to multiply. Even without making the host sick, that virus can then potentially spread through coughing or sneezing, just as it is spread by a person with a full-blown coronavirus infection.
Quote:
I also suggest that the worker's families also should have priority so it would less likely for the workers to be exposed in the first place.
On the flip side, the workers family may then be less likely to catch COVID from the immune but exposed and infectious worker.

Quote:
Edit. Let me put the above in another way. If a worker gets Covid 19 in their private life what is the chance of them passing it on to others at work? This includes to other workers and to the vulnerable people they work for?
Why would they not be a threat to passing it on to their workmates?
Quote:
Unrelated question. Would a person who has been vaccinated, but not otherwise ever exposed to the virus, test positive to Covid 19?
You might possibly test positive for the antibody test.
At least you won’t test positive for HIV now that Qld university has aborted it’s vaccine attempt.
__________________
Vote like you’re poor.

A closed mouth gathers no feet"
"Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke
"It's all god's handiwork, there's little quality control applied", Fox26 reporter on Texas granite
EHocking is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2021, 11:42 PM   #289
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
 
rjh01's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 28,092
Thanks for the replies. If the vaccine stops people getting ill, but does not stop them from spreading the virus then this may be bad news for everyone else. A vaccinated person gets the virus and starts spreading it around. Normally a day or two later they get sick, get tested and isolated and do not infect anyone else. But as they have been vaccinated, they do not get sick so they continue to do their normal activities, spreading it to even more people. It is only when others get sick and the spread is traced back to this person then they stop spreading it around.

Please tell me how I am wrong. This is one of the ways the vaccine could be a disaster.
__________________
This signature is for rent.
rjh01 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2021, 12:45 AM   #290
Capsid
Graduate Poster
 
Capsid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,842
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I think it is reasonable that people who work with vulnerable people should get the vaccine first. That way if the worker gets exposed to the virus in their private life they are far less likely to pass it on to these vulnerable people. I also suggest that the worker's families also should have priority so it would less likely for the workers to be exposed in the first place.

Edit. Let me put the above in another way. If a worker gets Covid 19 in their private life what is the chance of them passing it on to others at work? This includes to other workers and to the vulnerable people they work for?


Unrelated question. Would a person who has been vaccinated, but not otherwise ever exposed to the virus, test positive to Covid 19?

Antibody tests for the nucleocapsid protein will distinguish between those who have been infected and those who have had the vaccine which will only elicit a response to the spike protein.
This isn’t going to be the case for vaccines that use whole inactivated virus,


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Capsid is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2021, 01:04 AM   #291
Planigale
Philosopher
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 6,753
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Thanks for the replies. If the vaccine stops people getting ill, but does not stop them from spreading the virus then this may be bad news for everyone else. A vaccinated person gets the virus and starts spreading it around. Normally a day or two later they get sick, get tested and isolated and do not infect anyone else. But as they have been vaccinated, they do not get sick so they continue to do their normal activities, spreading it to even more people. It is only when others get sick and the spread is traced back to this person then they stop spreading it around.

Please tell me how I am wrong. This is one of the ways the vaccine could be a disaster.
The intent of the vaccine is to protect health services by preventing serious illness. If it prevents transmission that is a bonus. Preventing serious illness and death is of course a good thing in itself. The risk for young fit people who get covid is very small.

The AZ/Oxford vaccine included weekly swabbing in the UK trial, results not yet published, but the answer should be coming out soon.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2021, 01:14 AM   #292
Planigale
Philosopher
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 6,753
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post


Unrelated question. Would a person who has been vaccinated, but not otherwise ever exposed to the virus, test positive to Covid 19?
As said the usual tests won't detect vaccination. Neither the PCR swab nor the lateral flow antigen test would be positive due to vaccination. A blood test looking for antibodies may be positive as said depending on the antibody looked for. Testing for antibodies against the spike protein will be positive in vaccinated and previously infected people. As capsid says testing for antibodies against another site on the virus that is not present in the vaccine would separate out the two.

I am uncertain that natural infection will provide long lasting immunity, we certainly see people producing viral RNA for weeks and a few who have definite second infections. I had assumed second infections would be milder, but I was wrong, some have been more seriously ill with a second infection. Hopefully vaccination will provide a more effective immunity, but no vaccine has long term (ie more than a few months) data on efficacy.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2021, 01:48 PM   #293
dann
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 19,539
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I think there is a certain randomness about getting vaccinated. Certainly a lot of admin staff were queuing up for the vaccine this morning who are no way front line. The consensus amongst my colleagues who are very much front line is we have got this far on PPE and would have waited a bit longer to get vaccinated if this meant high risk elderly people were done first. (Since refusing the hospital vaccination would only mean someone in management got it, not someone deserving, we all took it up the deltoid like good employees.)

I get the impression that since it was discovered that you can get 1 or 2 shots more than expected out of the Pfizer vials, staff use those extra shots to vaccinate themselves instead of letting them go to waste. A very good idea, in my opinion!
In Denmark, this has led to the insane statistics that more than 100 percent of the delivered doses have already been administered as inoculations.
__________________
/dann
"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
dann is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2021, 08:11 PM   #294
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 28,963
Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
This is heartening...

I have had several medical professionals who we reached out to who refused the vaccine because they want to make sure the vulnerable patients get access first.

True heroes, I think.
I'm worried that people who refuse the vaccines will just slow the process down, because bureaucracy is involved.

"We can't vaccinate anyone in this group yet, because there's still people with higher priority who haven't been vaccinated yet."

Right now the bottleneck does not seem to be lack of doses, but the pace of actually getting vaccines into arms.

They're sort of second-guessing the order that has been decided, adding confusion to the process.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 04:08 AM   #295
Rolfe
Adult human female
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,594
I think anyone who is offered a vaccine and says, no, give it to someone more deserving, is a bit hard of thinking. This isn't like a donated organ. Just get the damn vaccine and don't mess up the strategy, such as it is.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 04:24 AM   #296
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 113,982
I take it there should be no problems for people who have had Covid getting any of the vaccines?
__________________
If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 09:03 AM   #297
Rolfe
Adult human female
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,594
I wouldn't have thought so.

Oh, you mean medical problems. I thought you meant the NHS saying, no, you've had it, no vaccine for you (like you don't get a measles vaccine if you've had measles). I don't think they'll pass over people who had the disease because they can't be sure of immune status even in these people.

I don't believe there is any medical contraindication to getting vaccinated if you've already had the disease. This isn't normally a concern with vaccination.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 09:32 AM   #298
zooterkin
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator
 
zooterkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 57,668
Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post


My mother is over 80, and she's already had her first jab, her second is due next week.
I spoke to her yesterday, and she was due to have her second just after I spoke to her, it wasn't cancelled or postponed, I'm glad to say. It sounds like the adjacent area to hers (I don't know how large the areas are) have cancelled the second jabs, while hers is completing those already scheduled (she's in a zoom group, and they were comparing experiences).
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell
Zooterkin is correct Darat
Nerd! Hokulele
Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
Ezekiel 23:20
zooterkin is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 09:48 AM   #299
Mikemcc
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 1,914
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I take it there should be no problems for people who have had Covid getting any of the vaccines?
A friend of mine spent a few weeks in an induced coma on life support earlier in the year. He has Long Covid and is taking part in a number of trials. He's just had a vaccination this week. When they did an antigen test on him as part of his regular testing they found that he didn't have any significant response for antibodies from the bout of Covid that he went through.
Mikemcc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 09:56 AM   #300
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Segnosaur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
(Not sure if this was discussed previously, but I didn't find anything on doing a quick search)...

Here is something I don't quite understand the reasoning for...

From: CBC (From December, 2021)
Drugmakers GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi said Friday that their potential COVID-19 vaccine won't be ready until late next year because they need to improve the shot's effectiveness in older people.

Now, I am not necessarily saying that the elderly should be ignored. But, we already have multiple vaccines that do work in older people, and the disease is still running wild in the general population.

Wouldn't it make more sense for GSK/Sanofi to finish their existing work and get approval for their vaccine, with the stipulation that it can only be used for less at-risk individuals, reserving the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for the elderly. (And then do another version of their vaccine for the elderly for a future date.)
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 10:14 AM   #301
RecoveringYuppy
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 14,185
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Wouldn't it make more sense for GSK/Sanofi to finish their existing work and get approval for their vaccine, with the stipulation that it can only be used for less at-risk individuals, reserving the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for the elderly. (And then do another version of their vaccine for the elderly for a future date.)
I don't know but they say there was a manufacturing problem in their vaccine. Unless they know how to replicate that manufacturing problem exactly that would mean their testing so far is meaningless.
RecoveringYuppy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 10:31 AM   #302
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Segnosaur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Quote:
Wouldn't it make more sense for GSK/Sanofi to finish their existing work and get approval for their vaccine, with the stipulation that it can only be used for less at-risk individuals, reserving the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for the elderly. (And then do another version of their vaccine for the elderly for a future date.)
I don't know but they say there was a manufacturing problem in their vaccine. Unless they know how to replicate that manufacturing problem exactly that would mean their testing so far is meaningless.
I had heard that it wasn't so much a "manufacturing problem" so much as a concentration/dosage problem.

From the article above:

Sanofi and GSK confirmed that volunteers in their study received less of the vaccine than intended because of incorrect readings produced by two of the commercial compounds used to test the amount of active ingredient in each dose. The lower dose was enough to produce a good immune response in younger people, but the response was much weaker in those over 60, they said.

If it is just a dosage issue, it doesn't really seem like it would be a show-stopper.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 10:34 AM   #303
RecoveringYuppy
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 14,185
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
If it is just a dosage issue, it doesn't really seem like it would be a show-stopper.
How would they know how to adjust the dosage?
RecoveringYuppy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 11:05 AM   #304
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Segnosaur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Re: Testing problems with GSK vaccine...
Quote:
If it is just a dosage issue, it doesn't really seem like it would be a show-stopper.
How would they know how to adjust the dosage?
Well, since they knew the dosage was too low, I assume they are able to determine how much of each agent the vaccine actually had in it to begin with.

(And they wouldn't have to adjust the dosage.. just make sure all dosages in the production batches matched the dosages used in the test batches.)
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 11:28 AM   #305
RecoveringYuppy
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 14,185
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Well, since they knew the dosage was too low, I assume they are able to determine how much of each agent the vaccine actually had in it to begin with.
They just said they got incorrect readings. Really sounds like you're counting on them being able to make the same mistake exactly the same way. Also note that some of the testing was done against the formulation they intended so their tests are split across at least two formulations.
RecoveringYuppy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 02:02 PM   #306
Klimax
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
 
Klimax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 14,283
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I take it there should be no problems for people who have had Covid getting any of the vaccines?
Looks like medically no. Today, I got strong recommendation from my doctor to get vaccination despite having Covid infection. (Although I suspect I will be in one of the last groups)
__________________
ModBorg

Engine: Ibalgin 400
Klimax is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2021, 03:47 PM   #307
Rolfe
Adult human female
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,594
It occurs to me that if they go on screwing around with the vaccination schedules so that true herd immunity is not achieved, there could be some very sorry people among the antivaxers.

Antivaxers freeload on the back of herd immunity. With true herd immunity the herd as a whole is protected, including the non-immune individuals. We see this time and time again with things like measles - oh nobody gets measles any more, we don't need the vaccine. And this holds up until it doesn't. Not just until the proportion of vaccinated people falls below the herd immunity threshhold, but until the disease is re-introduced. This can take some time, and as a result some places were as low as 50% vaccine uptake before measles re-surfaced, even though it takes about 90% vaccine uptake to eliminate the disease in the first place.

Well, if we don't get to the herd immunity threshhold with this one, we won't have to wait for the disease to be re-introduced. It's here already. So while the people who have had their proper vaccination course should personally be fine, the people who refuse the vaccine will be susceptible in the face of active infection. I wonder just how many sick vaccine refuseniks it will take to get the message through. (OK, you'll never get the message through to the real nutters, but these are a small percentage of the people who have been suckered into this.)
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 07:12 AM   #308
Chanakya

 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,704
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It occurs to me that if they go on screwing around with the vaccination schedules so that true herd immunity is not achieved, there could be some very sorry people among the antivaxers.

Antivaxers freeload on the back of herd immunity. With true herd immunity the herd as a whole is protected, including the non-immune individuals. We see this time and time again with things like measles - oh nobody gets measles any more, we don't need the vaccine. And this holds up until it doesn't. Not just until the proportion of vaccinated people falls below the herd immunity threshhold, but until the disease is re-introduced. This can take some time, and as a result some places were as low as 50% vaccine uptake before measles re-surfaced, even though it takes about 90% vaccine uptake to eliminate the disease in the first place.

Well, if we don't get to the herd immunity threshhold with this one, we won't have to wait for the disease to be re-introduced. It's here already. So while the people who have had their proper vaccination course should personally be fine, the people who refuse the vaccine will be susceptible in the face of active infection. I wonder just how many sick vaccine refuseniks it will take to get the message through. (OK, you'll never get the message through to the real nutters, but these are a small percentage of the people who have been suckered into this.)

Not even that much, actually, not really.

This one has turned out to be more efficacious than your average vaccine, thank FSM, but even ~90-whatever isn't exactly 100%, right?

My understanding is that the vaccine does temporarily shield you, to an extent, absolutely; but the endgame is full eradication of the virus via herd immunity. Without that happening, everyone's (going to be continued to be) screwed -- some less than others, sure, and some not at all (for a time), but no one (that is, no class of people) is going to actually be safe.

---

I'm holding forth on "my understanding", but it doesn't really amount to much I'm afraid. Typing the above leads me to wonder, and to ask: What exactly does a 90% efficacy mean? Specifically, does it mean that, on average, 90 out of every 100 people vaccinated will be wholly and entirely safe from the infection, even if they literally go mask-less right next to a whole roomful of infected patients, that 90%? Or will even that 90% of the "safe" vaccinated folks also need to protect themselves (not just for the sake of others, but on their own account as well)?

Last edited by Chanakya; 9th January 2021 at 07:24 AM.
Chanakya is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 10:39 AM   #309
Bob001
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: US of A
Posts: 16,613
An account of how the vaccine is distributed around the world. Hint: Everybody does a better job than the U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a90_story.html
Bob001 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 11:11 AM   #310
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,996
This is all quite fascinating from here.

We've taken the position of planning for a May-ish schedule, giving us time to watch the results of overseas programs.

Another benefit of eradication. Aussie is starting as soon as they get the vaccines, I think.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 11:51 AM   #311
Samson
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
This is all quite fascinating from here.

We've taken the position of planning for a May-ish schedule, giving us time to watch the results of overseas programs.

Another benefit of eradication. Aussie is starting as soon as they get the vaccines, I think.
The term is elimination, eradication would have closed borders.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 01:32 PM   #312
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
 
rjh01's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 28,092
I am getting two answers here. One answer is that if you are vaccinated then you are extremely unlikely to pass on the virus to others and the other answer is that it will not stop the spread at all, hence no herd immunity. See the two posts below.

Which one is correct? Or are they both correct?

Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
This is not necessarily so.
Short version is that as yet we don’t know.
Slightly longer version is,
Vaccines like Pfizer’s and Moderna’s are injected into deep muscle and provide so-called systemic immunity. But they may still leave areas, particularly nasal mucous passages, where the virus is relatively free to multiply. Even without making the host sick, that virus can then potentially spread through coughing or sneezing, just as it is spread by a person with a full-blown coronavirus infection.
On the flip side, the workers family may then be less likely to catch COVID from the immune but exposed and infectious worker.
<snip>


Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
<snip>

My understanding is that the vaccine does temporarily shield you, to an extent, absolutely; but the endgame is full eradication of the virus via herd immunity. Without that happening, everyone's (going to be continued to be) screwed -- some less than others, sure, and some not at all (for a time), but no one (that is, no class of people) is going to actually be safe.
<snip>
__________________
This signature is for rent.
rjh01 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 02:29 PM   #313
Klimax
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
 
Klimax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 14,283
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am getting two answers here. One answer is that if you are vaccinated then you are extremely unlikely to pass on the virus to others and the other answer is that it will not stop the spread at all, hence no herd immunity. See the two posts below.

Which one is correct? Or are they both correct?
IIRC we just don't know, because no test was done to answer this question.
__________________
ModBorg

Engine: Ibalgin 400
Klimax is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2021, 04:21 PM   #314
EHocking
Philosopher
 
EHocking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 8,594
Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
IIRC we just don't know, because no test was done to answer this question.
There is some indication that the vaccine has a positive protection effect.
Following the links in the article I cited on the subject above, this is a presentation from Moderna to the FDA.

Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee Meeting Presentation
Our protocol-specified analysis on the efficacy against asymptomatic infection was not available at the time of the EUA submission. However, we did collect pre-dose 1 and pre-dose 2 nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 virus and have performed a descriptive summary comparing the number of positive swabs at the pre-dose 2 timepoint in baseline seronegative participants to get an early idea on the possibility of prevention of asymptomatic infection. Amongst baseline negative participants, 14 in the vaccine group and 38 in the placebo group had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the second dose without evidence of COVID-19 symptoms. There were approximately 2/3 fewer swabs that were positive in the vaccine group as compared to the placebo group at the pre-dose 2 timepoint, suggesting that some asymptomatic infections start to be prevented after the first dose.
__________________
Vote like you’re poor.

A closed mouth gathers no feet"
"Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke
"It's all god's handiwork, there's little quality control applied", Fox26 reporter on Texas granite
EHocking is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 12:30 AM   #315
Meadmaker
Guest
 
Meadmaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 29,033
Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
but the endgame is full eradication of the virus via herd immunity. Without that happening, everyone's (going to be continued to be) screwed --
I hope that's not the endgame.

This virus lives in dogs, cats, pangolins. I'm guessing any mammal.

It will never be fully eradicated.
Meadmaker is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 03:53 AM   #316
Rolfe
Adult human female
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,594
I think you're wrong. There is no significant animal reservior at the moment as far as I know. It is eeradicable and it should be eradicated. Nay-saying doesn't help.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 05:23 AM   #317
Chanakya

 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,704
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am getting two answers here. One answer is that if you are vaccinated then you are extremely unlikely to pass on the virus to others and the other answer is that it will not stop the spread at all, hence no herd immunity. See the two posts below.

Which one is correct? Or are they both correct?


Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
This is not necessarily so.
Short version is that as yet we don’t know.
Slightly longer version is,
Vaccines like Pfizer’s and Moderna’s are injected into deep muscle and provide so-called systemic immunity. But they may still leave areas, particularly nasal mucous passages, where the virus is relatively free to multiply. Even without making the host sick, that virus can then potentially spread through coughing or sneezing, just as it is spread by a person with a full-blown coronavirus infection.
On the flip side, the workers family may then be less likely to catch COVID from the immune but exposed and infectious worker.
<snip>

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
<snip>

My understanding is that the vaccine does temporarily shield you, to an extent, absolutely; but the endgame is full eradication of the virus via herd immunity. Without that happening, everyone's (going to be continued to be) screwed -- some less than others, sure, and some not at all (for a time), but no one (that is, no class of people) is going to actually be safe.
<snip>


That wasn't what I meant, though.

True, there seem to be two parts to this. One, the vaccine limits manifestations of Covid 19, even as it does not actually stop infections per se, that's one outcome; and the other eventuality/outcome (and it could be either or both, given the whole lot of vaccines coming up) would be limiting the infection itself, although I've only heard the talking heads express hope about this, not clinical certainty.

But what I meant was this (although I guess I may not have expressed my clearly enough in my previous post):

Whether in terms of limiting symptoms, or in terms of limiting infections, the vaccine has limited efficacy, at most ~90%. That means that at least ~10% still aren't protected, despite having taken the jabs. Further, even for those who actually are protected, the ~90%, that protection is temporary, lasting maybe three months, maybe six, maybe around a year. It's not expected to be a lifelong thing.

So that, even for those vaccinated, it isn't as if they're now entirely impervious to the virus. They're far more protected now, than the protection offered only by their bodies naturally, but that protection does have holes. So that real protection, actual safety, can only come about only when the vaccine has resulted in stopping the spread of the virus, and herd immunity achieved (finally! --and thanks to the vaccines).

Until that time, no one is safe (or at least, while individual persons may be "safe", thanks to the vaccine or thanks simply to their own immune system, no class of people is safe), not really, not entirely, until we arrive at herd immunity. It isn't as if the arrival of vaccines means things return back to normal right after you get the jabs. Even if infection itself is controlled by the vaccines, even then masks and social distancing and washing hands and not congregating in large numbers and all the rest of it will still be a part of our lives for some more time, even after we've gotten ourselves vaccinated.

At least that was my layman's understanding. (And I'm open to correction, if those better informed than I am think otherwise.)
Chanakya is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 05:31 AM   #318
Chanakya

 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,704
Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I hope that's not the endgame.

This virus lives in dogs, cats, pangolins. I'm guessing any mammal.

It will never be fully eradicated.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I think you're wrong. There is no significant animal reservior at the moment as far as I know. It is eeradicable and it should be eradicated. Nay-saying doesn't help.

It isn't a question of who happens to think what. What does the evidence say?

I've seen talking heads say that probably our DNA will end up incorporating the corona virus ultimately, much like we apparently have incorporated whole hosts of parasites already within our DNA, to become part of us (usually harmless vestigial parts). I suppose in that sense Meadmaker is correct, and the virus will never be "eliminated". (Unless I'm mistaken in how I've understood those talking heads?)

So far as "animal reservoirs", I myself have no idea. Are either of you sure of your (contrasting) POVs? It would be interesting to know which is which. Common sense would suggest that if bats have given the thing to us once, the bats at least will continue to carry the virus, even if not other animals, given their high metabolism makes them impervious to ill effects from the virus.

As for my reference to "endgame" in my earlier post, I was referring, loosely I guess, to the endgame as far as the pandemic, not so much the virus itself. My understanding is that only herd immunity will do that for us, and the virus is only the means to that end. Simply getting jabbed won't mean that all's back to normal already, for those who've gotten jabbed. (See also my post immediately preceding.) At least that was my layman's understanding.
Chanakya is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 06:28 AM   #319
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 28,963
Cuomo's New York Is Just Throwing Away Vaccines Rather Than Distributing Them Competently

Quote:
More than 4,100 people died of COVID-19 yesterday across the country, but some New York medical providers are dumping vaccines instead of putting them in people's arms.
Quote:
The day after more than 4,100 people died from COVID-19 across the U.S., news broke that health care providers in New York were forced to throw out precious vaccine doses instead of putting them in people's arms.

New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, is the main man to blame. On December 28, he signed an executive order rolling out strict penalties—up to $1 million in fines, plus loss of medical license—for medical providers who allow people to skip the state-issued vaccination line, even when those doses are about to expire. The state's current vaccination plan allows frontline public health workers who have direct contact with patients to be vaccinated, as well as residents in nursing homes and other congregate care facilities. It does not currently allow for vaccination of most other elderly people, the group at the highest risk of death from COVID-19. (Cuomo's office did not respond to Reason's request for comment by time of publication.)
This is what I was afraid of. By strictly adhering to a predetermined priority list, they are actually making the whole process slower, and even allowing some vaccines to be wasted. They are actually choosing to throw away perfectly good vaccines rather than risk a million dollar fine and loss of medical license for vaccinating people in the wrong order.

Quote:
Predictably, The New York Times reported today that some clinics throughout New York City, like the Family Health Center of Harlem, are throwing out doses that are about to expire. Vials of the Moderna vaccine yield about 10 doses, so the clinic had to open two in order to vaccinate the 12 people who showed up to their evening appointments:

"After a quick search, the staff found three other eligible people, leaving five unused doses, Dr. Calman said.

The nurse at the clinic called her supervisor at home asking what to do with the remainder. From her home, the supervising nurse called her contact at the city's health department for guidance. She was told to try to find someone who fit the eligibility criteria and was encouraged to contact a nearby nursing home, an urgent care center and a women's shelter.

The nurse at the clinic set out on foot. She was turned away at the nursing home, a fire station and elsewhere, Dr. Calman said, before she was able to find one eligible and willing health care worker.

Dr. Calman said the nurse eventually threw out the remaining doses after the health department told the clinic that it could only vaccinate members of eligible groups."
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2021, 06:53 AM   #320
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 28,963
Meanwhile, in Israel:
Pfizer vaccines to arrive at 3:45 p.m. (Jerusalem Post)
Quote:
Health Ministry considering round-the-clock vaccination.
Quote:
Health Minister Yuli Edelstein has instructed his staff to evaluate the possibility of offering vaccinations throughout the night in order to speed up the country’s inoculation.
On Sunday, a large shipment of Pfizer coronavirus vaccines is expected to land in Israel at around 3:45 p.m. By the end of the week, as many as 500,000 more doses will arrive in Israel – and millions more by the beginning of March.
It's like night and day. Working around the clock to get people vaccinated. It seems that most of the high priority populations have received at least one dose already, and some even the second dose already, and they are moving on to the rest of the population.

Quote:
Edelstein said he expects that five million citizens will have received their first doses by the end of March.
“We will be the first country to emerge from the coronavirus,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. “We will vaccinate all relevant populations and anyone who wants to can be vaccinated.”
He and Edelstein received their second doses of the coronavirus vaccine Saturday night in a small ceremony at Sheba Medical Center.
Health Ministry officials presented Edelstein on Sunday with an updated list of priority vaccinations, which includes teachers and other school staff, who are expected to be inoculated between Wednesday and Thursday of this week.
Edelstein emphasizes that even as vaccines are open to the masses, preference should continue to be given to those most at risk.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 11:46 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.