Covid-19, the Territory Anomaly

[Darat]

Is it something as simple as population density where the first people to have the disease start to spread it, we would then expect to see the distribution we have in the UK.

Japan could be different because they were already wearing masks when it started?

[Pixel42]

A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low

[Ulf Nereng]

Hospital beds per capita: https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm

Similar factors would be doctors&nurses per capita and size of government stockpiles.

ETA: I kinda suspect that governor Cuomo would have enjoyed it if his state had three times as many hospital beds from the start, same as Germany!

[dann]

Originally Posted by Darat

Is it something as simple as population density where the first people to have the disease start to spread it, we would then expect to see the distribution we have in the UK.

If you run into a lot of people in crowded spaces every day, it's obviously a risk. You don't do that far away from the city centres. But then there are the affluent suburbs of Australia and Denmark. The suburbs aren't the areas with the highest population density, and they were the ones with "the first people to have the disease." Only then did the virus begin to spread it to the surrounding areas such as the city centre and the not-so-affluent suburbs. I live in the most densely populated area of Copenhagen: Frederiksberg. The two suburbs Gentofte and Rudersdal, and Frederiksberg were the three most infected areas at the beginning of the epidemic in Denmark. But Frederiksberg is not only the most densely populated area of Copenhagen, it is also the most affluent of the city of Copenhagen, so we probably have almost as many people who go skiing in Austria as the most affluent suburbs.
It actually took a while for the virus to spread from these areas to the rest of Copenhagen.

Quote:

Japan could be different because they were already wearing masks when it started?

Also greeting without touching. Built-in social distancing - except in the subway.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

Hospital beds per capita: https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm

Similar factors would be doctors&nurses per capita and size of government stockpiles.

ETA: I kinda suspect that governor Cuomo would have enjoyed it if his state had three times as many hospital beds from the start, same as Germany!

I noticed Sweden: Few hospital beds and a lax virus policy! Not a good combination. Expect to receive Swedish patients in Norwegian hospitals!

[pipelineaudio]

How true is it that Mexico got near universal BCG vaccinations?

[Doghouse Reilly]

Originally Posted by dann

If you run into a lot of people in crowded spaces every day, it's obviously a risk. You don't do that far away from the city centres. But then there are the affluent suburbs of Australia and Denmark. The suburbs aren't the areas with the highest population density, and they were the ones with "the first people to have the disease." Only then did the virus begin to spread it to the surrounding areas such as the city centre and the not-so-affluent suburbs. I live in the most densely populated area of Copenhagen: Frederiksberg. The two suburbs Gentofte and Rudersdal, and Frederiksberg were the three most infected areas at the beginning of the epidemic in Denmark. But Frederiksberg is not only the most densely populated area of Copenhagen, it is also the most affluent of the city of Copenhagen, so we probably have almost as many people who go skiing in Austria as the most affluent suburbs.
It actually took a while for the virus to spread from these areas to the rest of Copenhagen.




Also greeting without touching. Built-in social distancing - except in the subway.

That's an enormously significant "except" though.

[The Atheist]

Ok, I've been crunching numbers all morning and I'm going to plant my flag on it now:

Vitamin D

I've looked at two separate angles.

Countries with the "best" statistics to date, based on the following criteria:

Mortality rate under 2% of total cases, a static or falling number of new infections rate and a declining number of deaths. Must also have a test rate of at least 1% of the population and have 750 or more cases.

The following countries meet those criteria:

Germany, Austria, Canada*, South Korea, Israel, Norway. Australia, UAE, Iceland, Estonia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Latvia. (Latvia and NZ are at 0.75% test rate)

Getting close to making the list were Czechia, Japan, Thailand, South Africa & Malaysia.

Malta & Maldives stand out as having no deaths despite having infections for over 1 month.

Now, taking the information from world's annual fish consumption - I note that all of the top 10 countries are included in either the leader or honorable mention lists above, apart from Myanmar, which is only showing 20 cases.

The countries in the premier league are all countries with high fish consumption, or current high-sunshine level places, with the sole exception of Latvia.

I note that Spain & France both feature on the high seafood list, so it might need to be broken down to whether they're consuming the right kind of fish, or if the area breakdown differs by consumption and I haven't had time to do that yet - even if that information is available.

Meanwhile, Austria & Germany make the premier division by virtue of the famed German efficiency, where the state health apparatus has prevented major outbreaks and kept everything manageable, with top-flight medical teams and equipment for severe cases.

Now that I've stated an actual hypothesis, have at it!

(And suggest your mates got on the cod liver oil capsules immediately.)

*stats for Canada are a little unclear.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Ok, I've been crunching numbers all morning and I'm going to plant my flag on it now:

Vitamin D

You're guessing.

More likely it is a combination of various factors. Until it's all over and the data can be properly analyzed there's no way you can justify singling out one possibility and declaring it the winner.

Quote:

I note that Spain & France both feature on the high seafood list, so it might need to be broken down to whether they're consuming the right kind of fish

Your theory is in tatters and you try to mend it like this? Please hand in your skeptics badge.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Ok, I've been crunching numbers all morning and I'm going to plant my flag on it now:

Vitamin D

I've looked at two separate angles.

Countries with the "best" statistics to date, based on the following criteria:

Mortality rate under 2% of total cases, a static or falling number of new infections rate and a declining number of deaths. Must also have a test rate of at least 1% of the population and have 750 or more cases.

The following countries meet those criteria:

Germany, Austria, Canada*, South Korea, Israel, Norway. Australia, UAE, Iceland, Estonia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Latvia. (Latvia and NZ are at 0.75% test rate)

Getting close to making the list were Czechia, Japan, Thailand, South Africa & Malaysia.

Malta & Maldives stand out as having no deaths despite having infections for over 1 month.

Now, taking the information from world's annual fish consumption - I note that all of the top 10 countries are included in either the leader or honorable mention lists above, apart from Myanmar, which is only showing 20 cases.

The countries in the premier league are all countries with high fish consumption, or current high-sunshine level places, with the sole exception of Latvia.

I note that Spain & France both feature on the high seafood list, so it might need to be broken down to whether they're consuming the right kind of fish, or if the area breakdown differs by consumption and I haven't had time to do that yet - even if that information is available.

Meanwhile, Austria & Germany make the premier division by virtue of the famed German efficiency, where the state health apparatus has prevented major outbreaks and kept everything manageable, with top-flight medical teams and equipment for severe cases.

Now that I've stated an actual hypothesis, have at it!

(And suggest your mates got on the cod liver oil capsules immediately.)

*stats for Canada are a little unclear.

Is it not more likely that countries which are actually taking precautions are doing better than those which took them too late?

The vitamin D angle seems a bit weird when you end up saying "it's vitamin D. Oh Germany doesn't fit my hypothesis so...ermm German efficiency! And wait, Germany is Deutschland (D), so it is kind of Vitamin D, right...." *inhales spliff*"

Also, fish eating with "sole" exception.

Is that a fish pun just for the halibut?

[Samson]

For New Zealand and Australia it might be that we are coming out of summer.

[The Atheist]

[quote=Roger Ramjets;13046191]More likely it is a combination of various factors. Until it's all over and the data can be properly analyzed there's no way you can justify singling out one possibility and declaring it the winner.[quote]

Yeah I can - this is an internet discussion board not a medical journal.

I'm making a stand, and if I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it.

If I'm right, then I have iron-clad evidence of making the claim and when I made it.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Please hand in your skeptics badge.

Never had one, sorry. I'm The Atheist, not The Skeptic.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Is it not more likely that countries which are actually taking precautions are doing better than those which took them too late?

No, because NZ, Hawaii (which I forgot to add in) Australia, Chile, South Africa & Argentina haven't been taking it seriously.

Even hairdressers are still open in Australia - they have the next most-lax closure after Sweden, yet are getting away with it. I can't think of any other reason they're in that situation.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Also, fish eating with "sole" exception.

Is that a fish pun just for the halibut?

It was deliberate, so 10/10 for picking it up!

[EHocking]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Is it not more likely that countries which are actually taking precautions are doing better than those which took them too late?

The vitamin D angle seems a bit weird when you end up saying "it's vitamin D. Oh Germany doesn't fit my hypothesis so...ermm German efficiency! And wait, Germany is Deutschland (D), so it is kind of Vitamin D, right...." *inhales spliff*"

Also, fish eating with "sole" exception.

Is that a fish pun just for the halibut?

Just as correlation doesn't equate to causation.
I'm struggling to even find a correlation?
Current vitamin D status in European and Middle East countries and strategies to prevent vitamin D deficiency: a position statement of the European Calcified Tissue Society

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by EHocking

I'm struggling to even find a correlation?

From your link:

Quote:

The data should be compared with caution because, as mentioned above, the inter-laboratory variation may be high.

Not to mention, seasonally variable.

I'd like some better stats on vitamin D, so if you see any more, bring it along.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'd like some better stats on vitamin D, so if you see any more, bring it along.

You would be better off finding the rates of vitamin D deficiency across countries rather than the levels of fish-eating and assuming it correlates with vitamin D levels (or assuming it is "the wrong kind of fish" when the data doesn't support your hypothesis, or various other ad hoc rationalizations).

Better yet, instead of looking to make the data fit your hypothesis, think of some way that your hypothesis could be falsified and look for evidence for your hypothesis's falsification.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Darat

Is it something as simple as population density where the first people to have the disease start to spread it, we would then expect to see the distribution we have in the UK.

Japan could be different because they were already wearing masks when it started?

I think it's a possibility. My understanding is that wearing a mask if you have type of cold or cough was the norm in a Japan even before this outbreak. I don't know of any hard evidence though.

[EHocking]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

You would be better off finding the rates of vitamin D deficiency across countries

See the link in my post above to just such a study and set of data which was summarily rejected.

Quote:

rather than the levels of fish-eating and assuming it correlates with vitamin D levels (or assuming it is "the wrong kind of fish" when the data doesn't support your hypothesis, or various other ad hoc rationalizations).

Better yet, instead of looking to make the data fit your hypothesis, think of some way that your hypothesis could be falsified and look for evidence for your hypothesis's falsification.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by Darat

Is it something as simple as population density where the first people to have the disease start to spread it, we would then expect to see the distribution we have in the UK.

Japan could be different because they were already wearing masks when it started?

But look at Brazil. 220 million people. 2 weeks of Mardi Gras with jam packed streets til wee hours every day and 2 million tourists there to see it. Ghettos and poverty abound in adjoining areas.

For their population size, even just looking at the dense cities, the effect of this virus is much more mild.

Louisiana got hit much worse, despite how much smaller it is. Way smaller. New Orleans Mardi Gras nights were in the mid to upper 40's F and often cloudy, just like other places it spread (only theirs were daytime conditions). Rio never saw under 75F degrees any time of day.

Now, it could be argued that there were 'seeding' infectious persons in certain locations that made the difference, but then you are using the same argument for almost every warm place on the planet when this thing spread in Jan/Feb. Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Hawaii, Australia, Fiji, Tahiti, Mexico, etc... These are places people from cold climates LIKE to visit! Even more than Italian ski resorts and German Festivals where the virus really took off.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

You would be better off finding the rates of vitamin D deficiency across countries rather than the levels of fish-eating and assuming it correlates with vitamin D levels (or assuming it is "the wrong kind of fish" when the data doesn't support your hypothesis, or various other ad hoc rationalizations).

I didn't assume the wrong kind of fish - I said:

Quote:

...so it might need to be broken down to whether they're consuming the right kind of fish, or if the area breakdown differs by consumption ...

It could also be that it's just not enough fish.

All of the top ten countries have over 50kg a year fish consumption, so while Spain & France are fairly high on the list, they're not in that category.

Like I said, if you can find reliable vitamin D data, I'll use it, but I'm not seeing any that gives an accurate picture by season, so I'm going with what I can see.

Anyone's quite welcome to offer other explanations - we had the BCG, but I don't see the consistency required to make that work.

Six months down the track it will probably be quite obvious.

[Sherkeu]

If my weather theory is correct then...
Prediction:
Wisconsin, which near the same population of Denmark, will have a big surge.
Despite having less than half the reported deaths of Denmark right now, I think Wisconsin will overtake Denmark, even as Denmark's cases are still growing. The weather is ripe for it in both, but the response in the midwest of the US was delayed.
I give it 2 weeks to happen.

Deaths as of Apr 5:

Denmark: 187
Wisconsin: 77

[pipelineaudio]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

But look at Brazil. 220 million people. 2 weeks of Mardi Gras with jam packed streets til wee hours every day and 2 million tourists there to see it. Ghettos and poverty abound in adjoining areas.

For their population size, even just looking at the dense cities, the effect of this virus is much more mild.

How prevalent was BCG in Brazil?

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio

How prevalent was BCG in Brazil?

From what I read, Brazil innoculated with BCG from the 1920's onward- they were early adopters. Only difference being, they kept the oral delivery method decades longer, through the mid-70's, and some vaccinations are still done this way (in contrast to transdermal).

I would imagine they have the same issues with vaccinations in areas of poverty, like many countries.

[The Atheist]

I think the big problem with Brazil is reliability of information - their president is a non-believer and I imagine there's good incentives not to find the disease.

Pity, because it would be useful information in a population that size. Most of South America seems to be in the same boat regarding accuracy of information.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think the big problem with Brazil is reliability of information - their president is a non-believer and I imagine there's good incentives not to find the disease.

Pity, because it would be useful information in a population that size. Most of South America seems to be in the same boat regarding accuracy of information.

True. But then we would have reports of 'travelers to Brazil' coming back from Carnival infected to their home countries that do report good data. I haven't seen any trend like that.

My county (Orange County) of 3+ million in So. Calif. hasn't had a death in 2 days and just 14 total. Very low infection rates here so far despite it being here almost from the start.

[eeyore1954]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

True. But then we would have reports of 'travelers to Brazil' coming back from Carnival infected to their home countries that do report good data. I haven't seen any trend like that.

My county (Orange County) of 3+ million in So. Calif. hasn't had a death in 2 days and just 14 total. Very low infection rates here so far despite it being here almost from the start.

And Disneyland was open until March 14th? If a 6 hour line for the a new Star Wars ride isn't the place to get infected then where is?

[JeanTate]

Originally Posted by eeyore1954

And Disneyland was open until March 14th? If a 6 hour line for the a new Star Wars ride isn't the place to get infected then where is?

Big Apple subway car at peak hour?

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by eeyore1954

And Disneyland was open until March 14th? If a 6 hour line for the a new Star Wars ride isn't the place to get infected then where is?

The Disney parks last day open was Sunday the 15th. On-site hotels and the adjacent shopping promenade stayed open til Tuesday the 17th.

There really are not many better examples of an international tourist place where you MUST touch something another person also touched a few seconds before you than a ride at Disney (other than heavy public transport). Then multiply by thousands of times a day for 2 months. Plus so many other 'touch' things like turnstiles, handrails, elevators, chairs, and the store merchandise.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

True. But then we would have reports of 'travelers to Brazil' coming back from Carnival infected to their home countries that do report good data. I haven't seen any trend like that.

Good point. There seem to be more coming from Carnival Cruises than Rio's Carnival.

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

My county (Orange County) of 3+ million in So. Calif. hasn't had a death in 2 days and just 14 total. Very low infection rates here so far despite it being here almost from the start.

Yeah, I made mention of California in the main Covid thread - I see no reason other than sunshine &/or ambient temperature from other places.

[dann]

Islandske test: Børn smitter langt mindre end voksne (Ingeniøren, April 7, 2020)


Along with the Faroe Islands, Islands is the country that has tested most in the world, almost "82.000 tests pr. million."

Quote:

Foreløbige data fra Island viser, at der er langt mindre sandsynlighed for, at børn bliver smittet end voksne.
(...)
børn kun har en fjerdedels (25 procent, red.) risiko for at blive smittet.

Preliminary data from Iceland shows that children are far less likely to become infected than adults.
(...)
Children only have 25% risk of getting infected.

In Denmark, the youngest children will return to ordinary classes after Easter.

A hypothesis says that the difference between children and adults in this respect may be due to "Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, or ACE2," a kind of receptor on the surface of cells that may look a little different in children where it doesn't give the virus good access to the cells because they are still developing until the teenage years.

- - - -
Iceland has mainly focussed on testing, tracing carriers and quarantining them, i.e. much like the Faroe Islands. The latter still have no deaths.

Quote:

Iceland (population size 364,260)
Infected: 1,562
Dead: 6
Well: 460

Faroe Islands (population size 51,018)
Infected: 184
Dead: 0
Well: 120

Most recent corona numbers from Denmark and the rest of the world (TV2, April 7, 2020)

ETA: Like Scandinavia, in Iceland most (maybe all) of its early cases were ski tourists returning from Ischgl, Austria.

[Sherkeu]

One country that is not following the warm weather 'milder cases' scenario is Ecuador.

It would be interesting to know how exactly it is spreading there so much worse than other Latin American countries. You can't get much closer to an equatorial tropical environment than there!

The city hit hardest is Guayaquil- millions of residents in high density shanty towns, high crime, overcrowded jails, and poor health systems. The country has been politically unstable for a while. But other places also have such issues.

H1N1 flu is seasonal now but it spread in warm places for the first year. This virus seemed to follow a pattern but the anomolies like Ecuador are strange- and concerning.

[William Parcher]

Guayaquil, Ecuador, South America now...

82F temperature (28C)
75% humidity

[zooterkin]

Another possible factor, air pollution levels - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...es-study-finds

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

Children only have 25% risk of getting infected.

Nice work, thanks for all that - excellent information!

Coincidentally, I was just pointing out in the Covid parents thread that Covid is unlike other diseases and kids aren't a prime vector, so the facts on that are timely, too.

Faroe & Iceland... the two biggest fish eaters in the world, cast adrift on remote islands. NZ aren't huge fish eaters, but as another remote island group, we're all in the same boat and all doing ok at this stage, although our tests are miles behind theirs.

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

One country that is not following the warm weather 'milder cases' scenario is Ecuador.

Eh? Are we looking at the same Ecuador?

While their mortality rate isn't too flash, their case and death rates have been pretty flat for a week and given the poverty & overcrowding, should be headed for the moon.

[Sherkeu]

I looked more in to Ecuador and I think they may have been hit with a multiple 'bad factors' of which Covid-19 is just one of many. Their main additional factor is Dengue.

Oct 2019 2019 Ecuador Protests
Demonstrators paralyzed the capital in Quito over austerity measures. (gov't operations moved to Guayaquil.)

Nov 7 2019
State dept warning "Increased Caution" and in some areas "Do Not Travel" due to crime and civil unrest.

Nov 20, 2019
Cuban doctors leave Ecuador
"The initial group of doctors returned to Cuba from Ecuador on November 19, 2019, days after an agreement between the countries was terminated.
According to reporting by eldiario.es, about 382 Cuban doctors were working in 23 of the 24 provinces of the Republic of Ecuador.
The change was announced on November 12th by the Ecuadorian Minister of Interior, María Paula Romo, who said ‘Ecuador would not renew the various bilateral agreements with Cuba in the area of ​​Health.’"

Feb-Mar 2020
Outbreak of Dengue Fever along with cases of Covid-19
"Not only is the coronavirus alarming the country's health system, since the pandemic is joined by an alarming outbreak of dengue in zone 8 (Guayaquil, Durán and Samborondón). According to the Ministry of Public Health, between January and March 2020 alone, there have been more than 1,000 confirmed cases of this disease, which add to the 1,049 registered infections of coronavirus in the country - until this March 24"
"..during the first days, both diseases can present similar symptoms such as fever, general malaise, tiredness and headache.

There are other infectious mosquito-borne diseases that are prevalent in Ecuador and peaking at the same time Covid-19 is appearing, including malaria. The annual peak for Dengue Fever is March.

I initially thought Ecuador must be under-reporting since there are bodies being left on the street for lack of any services. It is clearly in a severe health crisis.
But given that it's happening in humid lowland areas like Guayaquil with a high risk of mosquito illnesses, it could be a sign they are overwhelmed by multiple diseases at once with a health system recently stripped to below its minimum levels along with a dysfunctional (and broke) government.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Eh? Are we looking at the same Ecuador?

While their mortality rate isn't too flash, their case and death rates have been pretty flat for a week and given the poverty & overcrowding, should be headed for the moon.

For a lot of countries, their reported numbers don't mean much. I look to see what is happening inside an area, the measures taken, the chaos of severe measures, reports from hospital staff, etc...

For example, Kyrgyzstan is reporting low numbers, but they clearly have major problems. They call their unreported numbers 'thousands under doctor supervision' instead of confirmed cases and even that is likely under-reported.

Ecuador had higher rates than its neighbors, and especially in one area- not even a high tourist area. See my post above for what I think could be the reason.

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

I initially thought Ecuador must be under-reporting since there are bodies being left on the street for lack of any services. It is clearly in a severe health crisis.
But given that it's happening in humid lowland areas like Guayaquil with a high risk of mosquito illnesses, it could be a sign they are overwhelmed by multiple diseases at once with a health system recently stripped to below its minimum levels along with a dysfunctional (and broke) government.

With a health care system in such a shambles it is likely that only a few tests are being carried out. Even rich countries doesn't test all recent deaths for covid-19.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Another possible factor, air pollution levels - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...es-study-finds

Works for New Zealand.
90% renewable energy, end of hot summer, near zero air pollution, 1 death from 1150 cases, high testing ratio, 33 per confirmed case.
Luck and reasonable management.

Looks ditto for Australia and maybe South Africa.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Samson

...high testing ratio...

We don't have a high test ratio. Not terrible, but not great either.

Originally Posted by Samson

Looks ditto for Australia and maybe South Africa.

Yes, that could be a point. I bet Iceland, the Faroes and probably Chile aren't too bad in air pollution.

Doesn't explain LA.

[Sherkeu]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

With a health care system in such a shambles it is likely that only a few tests are being carried out. Even rich countries doesn't test all recent deaths for covid-19.

I'm now of the belief that reports from Ecuador are telling of a Covid crisis when the actual 'main' crisis is quite different...not so much covid as a predicted heath crisis. They would have had many deaths anyway- without any global pandemic. This new virus is adding yet another element to an already strained system. Extra overload.

Perhaps it is even better for them to blame their crisis on Covid-19. It allows their govt to ask for global debt relief and assistance for Covid, when it is really for their other issues.

They are testing ok (they say... and comparatively it's ok), but I am not sure I would trust the numbers. I dont even think California numbers are reliable.

Deaths, of any unusual kind and number, is one thing to look for to guess what kind of spread may be going on. But it isn't always Covid-19.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Yeah I can - this is an internet discussion board not a medical journal.

You can make the claim, but that doesn't mean you can justify it.

Quote:

I'm making a stand, and if I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it.

Oh well, I guess that makes it OK then.

Quote:

If I'm right, then I have iron-clad evidence of making the claim and when I made it.

If you are 'right' it will have been a lucky guess.