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Old 10th November 2020, 03:26 AM   #401
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I suppose those elections could be invalid as well. I don't think though that there is any rule that if you claim one election is fraudulent you have to claim all are. Many of the fraud claims seem to be isolated to particular counties, so I'm not sure that they would apply to every county.
I think there's a bit of the excluded middle argument here. It's probably reasonable to claim that there is no such thing as a perfectly clean election, because there are always people prepared to do illegal things and some of them will sometimes get away with it. I would be very surprised if a complete investigation of every aspect of the 2020 election didn't uncover any voter fraud whatsoever. The question is, to what extent did that fraud influence the outcome of the election? If there are isolated cases of a few dozen votes being falsified in places that were won by several tens of thousands, the answer would be "none at all". Fraud claims isolated to particular counties would therefore have to pass an incredibly stringent test before being even considered for the sort of remedies Trump is calling for.

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Old 10th November 2020, 03:28 AM   #402
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I suppose those elections could be invalid as well.
They're all voted for on the same piece of paper. Why would invalidating the vote for president not also invalidate the other votes on that piece of paper?

Quote:
I'm only aware of one claim of fraud that is restricted to the president, the supposedly abnormal number of ballots that are blank down ballot. To say more one would need to know more about the specifics.
That doesn't even vaguely begin to answer the question. In fact, it just emphasises the question - if Democrats were rigging the election, why would they only rig the presidential election and leave themselves in a minority in the Senate?
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:30 AM   #403
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
They're all voted for on the same piece of paper. Why would invalidating the vote for president not also invalidate the other votes on that piece of paper?



That doesn't even vaguely begin to answer the question. In fact, it just emphasises the question - if Democrats were rigging the election, why would they only rig the presidential election and leave themselves in a minority in the Senate?
Let alone that there was nothing abnormal with "the supposedly abnormal number of ballots that are blank down ballot".
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:32 AM   #404
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I'm only aware of one claim of fraud that is restricted to the president, the supposedly abnormal number of ballots that are blank down ballot.
That's one that's amenable to a perfectly innocent explanation, of course; it simply requires that an unusually large number of otherwise apolitical people utterly despise President Trump and care about nothing but voting him out of office. I suppose someone who's been living in a cave in Mongolia for the last four years might consider that implausible, but other than that there's really only Trump himself.

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Old 10th November 2020, 03:32 AM   #405
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I think there's a bit of the excluded middle argument here. It's probably reasonable to claim that there is no such thing as a perfectly clean election, because there are always people prepared to do illegal things and some of them will sometimes get away with it. I would be very surprised if a complete investigation of every aspect of the 2020 election didn't uncover any voter fraud whatsoever.
Agreed.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
The question is, to what extent did that fraud influence the outcome of the election? If there are isolated cases of a few dozen votes being falsified in places that were won by several tens of thousands, the answer would be "none at all". Fraud claims isolated to particular counties would therefore have to pass an incredibly stringent test before being even considered for the sort of remedies Trump is calling for.
Agreed.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:33 AM   #406
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Fox News cut away from a White House press briefing Kayleigh McEnany was giving when she started talking about voter fraud

When Trump has lost Fox News, then there is no question that Trump has lost.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:35 AM   #407
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
You don't remember recounts? What are recounts except a blind search for irregularities? Also, I vaguely remember some kind of enquiry claiming Trump colluded with some foreign country to steal the election.
Every candidate has the right to a recount, as does Trump, and if that were all that was happening, no one would have any objections. Baseless allegations of fraud are completely different and shouldn't be allowed.

Did the enquiry about the collusion happen because of the election result or because someone had found an irregularity?
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:36 AM   #408
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That's one that's amenable to a perfectly innocent explanation, of course; it simply requires that an unusually large number of otherwise apolitical people utterly despise President Trump and care about nothing but voting him out of office. I suppose someone who's been living in a cave in Mongolia for the last four years might consider that implausible, but other than that there's really only Trump himself.

Dave
Sure, this is another thing that indicates a line of investigation that I assume Trump will attempt to follow. The fact that one can construct an innocent explanation for it is terrific, but that doesn't mean it is in fact innocent. We just have to wait and see what turns up. Beyond that, I don't know what to say.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:42 AM   #409
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
That doesn't even vaguely begin to answer the question. In fact, it just emphasises the question - if Democrats were rigging the election, why would they only rig the presidential election and leave themselves in a minority in the Senate?
It depends how they are rigging them and who is rigging them if indeed anybody is rigging them. If I were dumb enough to start speculating I'll be shot down for speculating. I've danced that pointless dance on this forum too many times before.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:45 AM   #410
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
It depends how they are rigging them and who is rigging them if indeed anybody is rigging them.
The latter is probably where you should focus.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:48 AM   #411
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The latter is probably where you should focus.
That's what an investigation, if it happens, would presumably find out. Kennedy was able to prevent a full investigation in 1960, I fully expect the same thing to happen this time.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:55 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
The fact that one can construct an innocent explanation for it is terrific, but that doesn't mean it is in fact innocent.
Again, this is reversing the burden of proof. If the only evidence presented of fraud is something that has, not just an innocent explanation, but an innocent explanation that accords perfectly with everything we know about the US electorate's attitude to President Trump, then it isn't even evidence of fraud. It certainly doesn't justify the expenditure of a huge amount of public money on, and the erasure of public confidence by, a massive fishing expedition. In effect, it's merely Trump claiming that he could not conceivably have lost a fair election therefore any election he loses must be unfair. Giving in to that sort of logic endangers democracy.

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Old 10th November 2020, 03:57 AM   #413
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I've heard a podcast where Kevin Barrett interviewed a guy called Jonathan Simon who claims that the whole voting system is rigged for the Republicans and up to 10 millions votes were stolen for them. Yes, that Kevin Barrett, hardcore 9/11 truther that everybody who ever heard his name on this forum likely hates. I happen to like him a lot, but I was against the premise when I clicked that link. If any voting fraud, I think it happened against Trump this time.

But what I found out is what I knew since 2000, that the voting mechanisms in the US are just a joke. And that Lawrence Lessig, who ran for president in 2016 or 2012, can't remember right now, was right with his "We will first fix the system, and then vote again" message. This just can't be taken serious anymore.
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Old 10th November 2020, 03:59 AM   #414
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
You don't remember recounts? What are recounts except a blind search for irregularities?
Your fallacy is: Equivocation. We're talking about allegations of fraud, which is a subset of "irregularities". Recounts are a very coarse simple check against irregularities, primarily errors in the count. What they are not is a post hoc revision of the rules of the election to exclude votes that were properly counted in accordance with the ab initio rules, which is effectively what Trump is demanding. A simple recount will simply yield the result, "We counted these votes about right," not "We verified that all these votes were placed in accordance with applicable law," and certainly not "We adjusted the count to make sure the candidate who threw the loudest tantrum won."

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:01 AM   #415
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I've heard a podcast where Kevin Barrett interviewed a guy called Jonathan Simon who claims that the whole voting system is rigged for the Republicans and up to 10 millions votes were stolen for them. Yes, that Kevin Barrett, hardcore 9/11 truther that everybody who ever heard his name on this forum likely hates. I happen to like him a lot, but I was against the premise when I clicked that link.
Which is no less of a "some guy said this" than any of the Trump campaign's claims.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
If any voting fraud, I think it happened against Trump this time.
Yes, dear.

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:04 AM   #416
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Again, this is reversing the burden of proof. If the only evidence presented of fraud is something that has, not just an innocent explanation, but an innocent explanation that accords perfectly with everything we know about the US electorate's attitude to President Trump, then it isn't even evidence of fraud.
One can frequently come up with innocent explanations for things that are none the less evidence of crimes. You then investigate and maybe find out if the situation can be clarified. There is no burden of proof here, since I don't think anybody here is arguing that fraud of a sufficient scale to matter definitely did happen. Trump would obviously have a burden of proof if this makes it anywhere near a court.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
It certainly doesn't justify the expenditure of a huge amount of public money on, and the erasure of public confidence by, a massive fishing expedition.
If there isn't an investigation, it will be seen as a cover up. The way to restore confidence is to have an investigation. The cost of it will be trivial in the grand scheme of things.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
In effect, it's merely Trump claiming that he could not conceivably have lost a fair election therefore any election he loses must be unfair. Giving in to that sort of logic endangers democracy.
Trump says a lot of bombastic stuff. If there isn't an investigation, it will be seen as a cover up.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:09 AM   #417
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Your fallacy is: Equivocation. We're talking about allegations of fraud, which is a subset of "irregularities". Recounts are a very coarse simple check against irregularities, primarily errors in the count. What they are not is a post hoc revision of the rules of the election to exclude votes that were properly counted in accordance with the ab initio rules, which is effectively what Trump is demanding.
If the votes were proper, then they won't be discarded. No? Or at least it would be something we could argue over. Hypothetically if a bunch of dead people voted (presumably not enough to make a difference), then they should be discarded, no?


Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
A simple recount will simply yield the result, "We counted these votes about right," not "We verified that all these votes were placed in accordance with applicable law," and certainly not "We adjusted the count to make sure the candidate who threw the loudest tantrum won."
If that is the case, then he will not be successful. If the count changes bigly, then maybe this goes somewhere. It's hard to know without a count.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:10 AM   #418
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Donald Trump Junior has been pounding away on his kiddie plastic toy 'lap top' and making all sorts of playground noises at Pilger (the guy who resigned shortly afer Barr put out his memo).

Quote:
Richard Pilger resigned after Attorney General William Barr authorized federal prosecutors across the U.S. to pursue 'substantial allegations' of voting irregularities before the 2020 presidential election is certified, despite little evidence of fraud.

Pilger, director of the Election Crimes Branch of the Department of Justice since 2010, stepped down within hours of Barr's announcement, in an email he sent to colleagues that was obtained by The New York Times.

And President Donald Trump's son, Don Jr, was quick to criticize Pilger.

He wrote: 'Wait. Seriously? Isn’t this the guy who was involved with the IRS and Lois Lerner in targeting conservatives and the Tea Party? Maybe that’s why he hasn’t done s**t at DOJ. #deepstate' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nce-fraud.html

Quite. 'And your daddy smells of poo,' would be Pilger Jnr's response.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:12 AM   #419
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
If there isn't an investigation, it will be seen as a cover up.
That's a classic conspiracy theorist wedge argument. If there's an investigation that finds no significant wrongdoing, that also will be seen as a cover up.

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:15 AM   #420
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Which is no less of a "some guy said this" than any of the Trump campaign's claims.

The message is "Fix the system, we can't even figure out which way the rigging is done anymore", Dave.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:21 AM   #421
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That's a classic conspiracy theorist wedge argument. If there's an investigation that finds no significant wrongdoing, that also will be seen as a cover up.

Dave
By some people, sure but that isn't any reason to help them by implementing a coverup of what might be nothing.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:24 AM   #422
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Here in Germany we have a completely trustworthy election system. I just have to go across the street (I live in the center of a large city, but even in some village the voting booth will not be far and you won't have to wait). Voting means pen and paper. They asked us to bring our own pen in the local elections last month because of "corona". I frequently meet the people that count my vote on the street. It is a solid system you don't seem to have.

Problem is that the choice we have is among vassals. But that is for another thread.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:37 AM   #423
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
But what I found out is what I knew since 2000, that the voting mechanisms in the US are just a joke. And that Lawrence Lessig, who ran for president in 2016 or 2012, can't remember right now, was right with his "We will first fix the system, and then vote again" message. This just can't be taken serious anymore.

It was in 2016.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:44 AM   #424
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I say investigate, but include states where Trump won and investigate the overall state of fraud and if it could have affected not just this but other elections. Use it as base to check if the entire Presidential voting system is secure and fair.

Include observers in the investigation, this from Sky News UK;

https://news.sky.com/story/us-electi...ation-12128927

"Election officials from both political parties have publicly stated that voting went well. International observers also confirmed there were no serious irregularities.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:44 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Here in Germany we have a completely trustworthy election system.
Which, nevertheless, manages to violate Benford's Law, as we saw upthread.

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:47 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
By some people, sure but that isn't any reason to help them by implementing a coverup of what might be nothing.
There are good reasons why there's a burden of proof before any investigation is mandated; again, some of these are illustrated by the experience with 9/11 conspiracy theorists. When a conspiracy theorist says "What's the harm in starting an investigation, even if there isn't any compelling evidence," they're generally preparing the way for the next step which is "The fact that you agreed to an investigation means there must have been some compelling evidence, so why aren't you publishing it?" I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Trump would resort to such tactics.

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:48 AM   #427
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The message is "Fix the system, we can't even figure out which way the rigging is done anymore", Dave.
Or, to quote a leading 9/11 conspiracy theorist, "It is because we know nothing that we demand answers."

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Old 10th November 2020, 04:58 AM   #428
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The vote count as of what I can find for now is

Biden - 76,343,332
Trump - 71,444,567

The difference being 4,898,765, or the same population as Alabama, or 3.3% of the entire vote. For fraud to have made a genuine difference, it would need to be on an astronomical scale.
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Old 10th November 2020, 04:58 AM   #429
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
There are good reasons why there's a burden of proof before any investigation is mandated; again, some of these are illustrated by the experience with 9/11 conspiracy theorists. When a conspiracy theorist says "What's the harm in starting an investigation, even if there isn't any compelling evidence," they're generally preparing the way for the next step which is "The fact that you agreed to an investigation means there must have been some compelling evidence, so why aren't you publishing it?" I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Trump would resort to such tactics.

Dave

Which means you put yourself in a position to define what a "conspiracy theorist" is, a position you are not in even by basic logic, Dave.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:00 AM   #430
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Are we supposed to believe that widescale fraud is relatively straightforward to carry out in the US elections and yet known fraudster and criminal Donald Trump didn't engage in it but Biden did?
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:05 AM   #431
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Are we supposed to believe that widescale fraud is relatively straightforward to carry out in the US elections and yet known fraudster and criminal Donald Trump didn't engage in it but Biden did?

You (the "we" you imply doesn't exist) aren't supposed to believe anything.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:06 AM   #432
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The vote count as of what I can find for now is

Biden - 76,343,332
Trump - 71,444,567

The difference being 4,898,765, or the same population as Alabama, or 3.3% of the entire vote. For fraud to have made a genuine difference, it would need to be on an astronomical scale.
That's the overall popular vote. In swing states the difference is a few thousand or tens of thousands of votes.

Then again, in 2016 President Trump claimed that millions of votes were cast illegally. He provided no supporting evidence for it, and the government's own investigation found no evidence but he still insists that once illegally cast votes were stripped out, he won the popular vote handsomely.

Yes, there will be isolated cases of voter fraud and/or voter error but they will be individual cases. There will be nothing within orders of magnitude of the thousands of votes required to swing the closest swing state much less the millions it would take to change the popular vote.

That doesn't stop the GOP promoting it as a credible problem. Whether they genuinely believe that the Democrats are engaging in voter fraud on a vast scale or they are cynically promoting it is a good question - but 40%+ of the US population currently believe that voter fraud stole the election and literally no evidence will convince them otherwise (which is handy because literally no evidence convinced them in the first place )
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:06 AM   #433
Archie Gemmill Goal
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The Benford's Law stuff is quite fun but I can't for the life of me see why it would apply to election results.

Let's say you have elections between 2 candidates in 1000 counties of 10,000 in population (I don't know what the US divisions are based on but I presume there is some attempt to make them uniform in size?) then surely the most common results are going to be in the 3, 4, 5 and 6 thousands? it's going to be a bell curve around the mean which is going to be somewhere around 5000 if the two candidates are close.

It seems for Benfords to apply you would need huge variation in voting population size and vote splits and I don't see how that occurs in many elections.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:31 AM   #434
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
There are good reasons why there's a burden of proof before any investigation is mandated; again, some of these are illustrated by the experience with 9/11 conspiracy theorists. When a conspiracy theorist says "What's the harm in starting an investigation, even if there isn't any compelling evidence," they're generally preparing the way for the next step which is "The fact that you agreed to an investigation means there must have been some compelling evidence, so why aren't you publishing it?" I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Trump would resort to such tactics.

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Two answers here:
1. A "conspiracy theory" that only a handful of insignificant loons believe may not be worth investigate, where an identically false idea believed by half the country might be worth investigating.

2. As I keep saying, I believe a similar situation applied in 1960. Nixon had to conduct his own investigation first before an official one was begun, unfortunately for him he ran out of time and it had to be handed over to the new administration to complete and disappeared into the weeds. The "irregularity" there was of the sort of scale Trump would need to find here. An investigation was allowed in 1960 on less evidence than we have now, I don't see why it shouldn't be allowed today.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:43 AM   #435
wareyin
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
One of our resident conspiracy theorists hilariously thought it would be a good idea to mention “evidence” gathered by Project Veritas.

Well, this is how that’s going.
"This content is not available to you"
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:44 AM   #436
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Interesting to point out that the same allegedly fraudulent election that secured a Biden win also saw minor gains for Republicans in the House and, more importantly, put them on track to maintain majority power in the Senate.

The "stop the steal" narrative would make much more sense if the Democrats were on track for a total sweep as predicted by the pollsters, but seems a bit muddy when you consider that the election was a mixed result that included some significant victories for Republicans.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:46 AM   #437
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
"This content is not available to you"
Just reload the page. Twitter does that a lot.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:49 AM   #438
wareyin
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Who is claiming this? Massive voter fraud was proved in 1960 with 1960s technology.
It was proved? I thought you claimed that Kennedy was able to suppress the investigation?

Oh, right, mere accusations against your political enemy are taken as proof, if you are a skeptic.
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:52 AM   #439
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Suitability for the task.
It has a magnitude of numbers; the universe is defined, it is a natural data set (not human assigned), a large spread of numbers. What else would you like?
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Old 10th November 2020, 05:53 AM   #440
SuburbanTurkey
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Re: Rod Blagojevich's "expertise" on the matter of vote rigging.

Blago was never convicted, nor even accused, of any voting rigging or other illegal electioneering. He has no first hand experience with such schemes.

He was convicted of corruption surrounding his attempts to solicit bribes in exchange for him using his executive power as Governor, which has nothing to do with the election process itself. Given how ineptly run and easily detected this scheme was, there's strong evidence that Blago is not a good authority on the matter of running successful clandestine plots.

He has no special insight into such matters beyond the what any other elected official might.
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