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Old 10th November 2020, 08:21 AM   #521
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Republicans are results based, Democrats are standards based.

With Republicans if the Ref didn't see it, then it's a valid gameplay tactic. If you can pay off the Refs, hey you're just being smart. As long as you win the game it's all good.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:30 AM   #522
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
Iím not sure, but apparently we need to ask noted mathematician Chris Rock.
Maybe we should ask Joe Frazier?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:30 AM   #523
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
5. There will be occurrences where Benford's Law will not be the proper tool but election results is not one of them.
6. Using Benford's Law as a tool to observe the distribution of votes counted is valid as long as the proper criteria is present. (defined universe,at least one magnitude of numbers, numbers are naturally established, sufficient sample size).
Since you claim expertise in this, let's construct a hypothetical. Suppose there is an election in which all counting districts are chosen so that the expected vote total from each is 1000 votes, and the votes counted fall within 10% of this figure. Suppose also that the two candidates each poll close to 50% overall, and the variance between counting districts turns out to be within 20% of this figure (i.e. all districts report between 30/70 and 70/30 votes for all candidates). Based only on the above information, would it be possible to use Benford's Law on the first digits of the numbers of votes cast to determine whether the results were, or were not, suspect?

I'll supply the answer later, if anyone hasn't got it immediately.

Dave
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:33 AM   #524
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Can we put this nonsense to rest; this stupid idea that wanting fairness is the same thing as being biased for the people who don't cheat?

"Democrats want things to be run fairly, Republicans don't" doesn't make this a "Political difference" that you are just "Biased for the Democrats" in wanting.
Of course each side claim, and perhaps believe, that they are the honest ones. That is why in practice all these questions of whether elections are fair are actually political questions.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:34 AM   #525
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Of course each side claim, and perhaps believe, that they are the honest ones. That is why in practice all these questions of whether elections are fair are actually political questions.
In a post-fact world sure.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:36 AM   #526
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Of course each side claim, and perhaps believe, that they are the honest ones. That is why in practice all these questions of whether elections are fair are actually political questions.
That position is a moral vacuum.

Dave
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:37 AM   #527
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
7. Both Democrats and Republicans use this method... this is not new.
Citation needed.

I don't think either Democrats or Republicans have ever used this method.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:37 AM   #528
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Right, so one "error" can throw the vote off in a county by 6000 votes and the total votes in some states are only different by 15000 votes or less.
.
There was an error of 6000 votes, it was detected immediately, and immediately corrected.

How does that support a claim that there is potentially an error of 15000 votes somewhere else that has not been found?

"The system worked to detect serious anomalies" somehow turns into "there are bigger problems that have not found"?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:38 AM   #529
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It's Conspiracy Thinking.

"Well if this got discovered, just think of what kind of evil is still uncovered!"
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:38 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Trump has made it clear that he fervently believes that he has already won the election,
Trump says a lot of attention seeking, bombastic stuff. How much of it he believes, and whether he believes it "fervently", isn't clear.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
and the only purpose of an investigation would be to find out how it was fraudulently stolen from him. Do half the country believe him? You don't know that.
Now we are getting back into the realms of political calculations. If you believe that it's only an insignificant minority that believe his claims, then it is certainly safe not to investigate.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:40 AM   #531
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
There was an error of 6000 votes, it was detected immediately, and immediately corrected.

How does that support a claim that there is potentially an error of 15000 votes somewhere else that has not been found?

"The system worked to detect serious anomalies" somehow turns into "there are bigger problems that have not found"?
If a similar error occurred in another country and wasn't detected. The amount of error and fraud is almost always going to be greater than the amount detected for any given level of investigation.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:41 AM   #532
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Which case are you talking about?
There are zero cases in which party representatives have been prevented from observing the count.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:43 AM   #533
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
There are zero cases in which party representatives have been prevented from observing the count.
Okay but what about all the cases where the Illuminati prevented us from knowing about representatives being prevented from observing the count?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:43 AM   #534
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
If a similar error occurred in another country and wasn't detected.
On what basis do you assert that a similar error occurring in another county would not be detected?

The evidence we have indicates that a 6000 vote error gets immediately detected and fixed.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:45 AM   #535
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
What’s the minimum number of people who need to believe without evidence that you are a pedophile before you are comfortable with the police investigating you for it?
Bumped for shuttit, as it appears you missed this post.

You have argued that if enough people believe something without evidence then we should proceed is if that thing might be true, regardless of the lack of evidence.

The upper threshold you’ve placed on this seems to be “half the country”.

I’m trying to determine the lower threshold.

How many people would need to believe that you are a pedophile without evidence before it would be appropriate to launch a criminal investigation into your alleged pedophilia?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:45 AM   #536
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Looks like I'm going to have to go check and see which party the Invisible Dragon in My Garage is registered with...
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:45 AM   #537
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
If a similar error occurred in another country and wasn't detected. The amount of error and fraud is almost always going to be greater than the amount detected for any given level of investigation.
What could have happened doesn't matter. Did it happen?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:46 AM   #538
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OMG I found examples of VOTER FRODD!!!1!1!11!ELEVENTY!!!111

https://twitter.com/brguest20/status...87700826685440
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:46 AM   #539
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That position is a moral vacuum.

Dave
It's how the system is designed. We heard all about this with impeachment that congress could impeach the president for any reason that congress thought justified impeaching him... a political process. The same with elections, that's why you can have faithless electors... or congress deciding who the winner is.

You can't decide who are the good guys based on your sides conviction that you are the good guys. Pretty much everybody thinks they are the good guys. Trump voters certainly think they are the good guys.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:47 AM   #540
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
OMG I found examples of VOTER FRODD!!!1!1!11!ELEVENTY!!!111

https://twitter.com/brguest20/status...87700826685440
Mrs. Krabappel and Principal Skinner were in the closet making fake votes and I saw one of the fake votes and then the fake vote looked at me.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:48 AM   #541
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
It's how the system is designed. We heard all about this with impeachment that congress could impeach the president for any reason that congress thought justified impeaching him... a political process. The same with elections, that's why you can have faithless electors... or congress deciding who the winner is.

You can't decide who are the good guys based on your sides conviction that you are the good guys. Pretty much everybody thinks they are the good guys. Trump voters certainly think they are the good guys.
Yes if only there were this outside elements, these firm factual things that don't change based on your opinion of them... hmmm but there I go living in my fantasy land again.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:50 AM   #542
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
What could have happened doesn't matter. Did it happen?
The only way to find out would be to go look. Somebody should go look, with witnesses representing the stakeholders close enough to witness the checks.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:51 AM   #543
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
The only way to find out would be to go look. Somebody should go look, with witnesses representing the stakeholders close enough to witness the checks.
WE DID THAT AND THE OTHER SIDE STILL JUST GO "LOL NO, STILL DON'T BELIEVE IT."

Both sides have poll watchers! NOTHING HAPPENED!
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:52 AM   #544
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
The only way to find out would be to go look.
Do you have any evidence that they did not "look" by using the same approach that was used to detect the 6000 vote error?
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:52 AM   #545
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yes if only there were this outside elements, these firm factual things that don't change based on your opinion of them... hmmm but there I go living in my fantasy land again.
We seem to be in a time where there is disagreement and lack of trust, hence it is a political question.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:53 AM   #546
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
We seem to be in a time where there is disagreement and lack of trust, hence it is a political question.
Because one side literally will sit there and deny reality.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:54 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Do you have any evidence that they did not "look" by using the same approach that was used to detect the 6000 vote error?
No. If they did, then the way it was checked needs to be explained, and possibly audited to clear the air.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:55 AM   #548
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I fired an employee at my store but never followed through on the paperwork after he refused to leave so I let him stay which was a disaster. I wonder if we are gonna end up with two presidents come Jan 20. The fact that so many countries aren't calling Biden is telling; they must know something that we don't.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:55 AM   #549
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Talking politics is now literally indistinguishable from arguing Woo.

Scene. There is a red ball on the table.
Ted: There's a red ball on the table.
Bill: There's a blue cube on the table.
Ted: What... no that's a red ball. We're both looking at it.
Bill: Agree to disagree.
Ted: That's not how this works.
Bill: Well that's just your opinion.
Ted: It... is... a.... red... ball.
Bill: Why are you sowing such distrust?
Ted: It's a red ball.
Bill: Meet me halfway, it's a red cube.
Ted: No it's still a red ball.

Why are so many people looking at that discussion and somehow coming to the conclusion that Ted is the problem?
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Last edited by JoeMorgue; 10th November 2020 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:55 AM   #550
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's Conspiracy Thinking.

"Well if this got discovered, just think of what kind of evil is still uncovered!"
It reminds me of the Dreyfus Affair. It was clear that the evidence that convicted him at his first trial had been forged, so at his retrial the prosecution argued that they now had even stronger evidence but it was so top secret that nobody was allowed to see it.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:57 AM   #551
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
WE DID THAT AND THE OTHER SIDE STILL JUST GO "LOL NO, STILL DON'T BELIEVE IT."

Both sides have poll watchers! NOTHING HAPPENED!
Joe, I sincerely enjoy how one minute you're all "Why are we even feeding the troll?" into the hard swing of vomiting bile directly into the troll's gullet. It really is something.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:57 AM   #552
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This Benford's Law stuff is really funny. I did a news search to see what was coming up. Here's one article:

https://www.truthorfiction.com/does-...n-biden-votes/

It basically describes some of the claims going about, showing how they are wrong, but the site itself does a terrible job, starting with their description of Benford's Law.

"[Benfordís Law is] the principle that in any large, randomly produced set of natural numbers, such as tables of logarithms or corporate sales statistics, around 30 percent will begin with the digit 1, 18 percent with 2, and so on, with the smallest percentage beginning with 9. The law is applied in analyzing the validity of statistics and financial records."

No. Just no. First of all, "tables of logarithms", are not "a randomly produced set of natural numbers". Second, it isn't in "any randomly produced set of natural numbers". It's just not. Not even close. Whoever wrote that line, presumably the truthorfiction.com authors cribbed it from somewhere, just didn't understand Benford's Law, or nature.

If I have a Gaussian distributed random variable (and those of you who know what that means probably also know that they occur a lot in nature - curse you Central Limit Theorem), the numbers recorded for it won't follow Benford's law. If you have a uniform distribution, which is much rarer in nature, but common in games and probability, it won't follow Benford's Law. If you have any distribution that doesn't span at least one order of magnitude it can't possibly follow Benford's Law.

On the other hand, if you have something that follows an exponential pattern, it will follow Benford's Law. As many of you know, lots of natural processes are described by differential equations, and those have a lot of exponentials in them, so lots of natural processes work with Benford's Law.

And, it turns out, that while a gaussian distribution does not follow Benford's law, the product of two gaussians will....some restrictions apply. The product of many gaussians also will. So will the product of uniform distributions. That's why the product of dice rolls will follow Benford's Law, but the sum of dice rolls will not. And this is related to why you can make use of Benford's Law to catch accounting fraud.

But, the cool think is seeing all these people talk about it, and just getting it wrong from every angle. It's not some magic formula that roots out fraud. The misinformation is flowing fast and furious about it.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:58 AM   #553
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
We seem to be in a time where there is disagreement and lack of trust, hence it is a political question.
As JoeMorgue hints, this is pure sophistry.

It goes like this
"Who watches the watchers?"
"Who watches them?"
"And who watches them?"

and it ends with
"How do you know reality exists and we aren't all just part of simulation?"

No one cares.
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Old 10th November 2020, 08:58 AM   #554
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Joe, I sincerely enjoy how one minute you're all "Why are we even feeding the troll?" into the hard swing of vomiting bile directly into the troll's gullet. It really is something.
I have literally never once advocated ignoring trolls, and actively fight against the very concept. Ignoring trolls is literally why discourse is why it is the way it is now.

We let people just be wrong for so long and we're all shocked and appalled that lo' and behold a lot of people are wrong with no way to deal with them.
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Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..."
Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."

Last edited by JoeMorgue; 10th November 2020 at 09:04 AM.
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Old 10th November 2020, 09:00 AM   #555
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaBrant View Post
I fired an employee at my store but never followed through on the paperwork after he refused to leave so I let him stay which was a disaster. I wonder if we are gonna end up with two presidents come Jan 20. The fact that so many countries aren't calling Biden is telling; they must know something that we don't.
When this happened with Popes, they elected a new Pope to clear up the mess. The previous two Popes refused to go, so they then had 3 Popes. You need to set your sights higher.

Pretty much every other Western country is on the same globalist/managerial class side as Biden. If they aren't calling it's not because they aren't on his side. Plus, wouldn't talking to them risk breaking the Logan act?
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Old 10th November 2020, 09:03 AM   #556
pgwenthold
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaBrant View Post
I fired an employee at my store but never followed through on the paperwork after he refused to leave so I let him stay which was a disaster. I wonder if we are gonna end up with two presidents come Jan 20.
We will not.

The constitution states that the term lasts 4 years. Trump's term ends on Jan 20, 2021. There is no ambiguity. He can "refuse to leave" all he wants, but he won't be President.

Unless, of course, all those "strict constructionist" Constitution supporters claim that the Constitution doesn't count.
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Old 10th November 2020, 09:04 AM   #557
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
As JoeMorgue hints, this is pure sophistry.

It goes like this
"Who watches the watchers?"
"Who watches them?"
"And who watches them?"

and it ends with
"How do you know reality exists and we aren't all just part of simulation?"

No one cares.
In the US system, it seems pretty clear most of the time. In the case of elections, the buck seems to stop with congressional delegations.
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Old 10th November 2020, 09:05 AM   #558
JoeMorgue
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
In the US system, it seems pretty clear most of the time. In the case of elections, the buck seems to stop with congressional delegations.
And that's the "Well if bought off the refs that's the same thing as playing fairly" mentality.

You can't "Don't hate the player, hate the game" us into a dictatorship.
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Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..."
Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."
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Old 10th November 2020, 09:08 AM   #559
pgwenthold
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Talking politics is now literally indistinguishable from arguing Woo.

Scene. There is a red ball on the table.
Ted: There's a red ball on the table.
Bill: There's a blue cube on the table.
Ted: What... no that's a red ball. We're both looking at it.
Bill: Agree to disagree.
Ted: That's not how this works.
Bill: Well that's just your opinion.
Ted: It... is... a.... red... ball.
Bill: Why are you sowing such distrust?
Ted: It's a red ball.
Bill: Meet me halfway, it's a red cube.
Ted: No it's still a red ball.

Why are so many people looking at that discussion and somehow coming to the conclusion that Ted is the problem?
My favorite example; skip ahead to about 40s

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


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Old 10th November 2020, 09:08 AM   #560
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And that's the "Well if bought off the refs that's the same thing as playing fairly" mentality.

You can't "Don't hate the player, hate the game" us into a dictatorship.
If the two teams can't agree on what the rules of the game are then the congressional delegations are the final ref. I'd be stunned if it got there.
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