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Tags Lockerbie bombing , Pan Am 103

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Old 23rd September 2009, 08:48 AM   #161
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but would it be fair to say that you would have expected the actual triggering mechanism (including timer) to be vaporised, but that the same might not necessarily be true for the radio-cassette player itself?

It's always the timer that's seemed to me to be incongruous, especially in the context of the radio-cassette player. Are you perhaps less surprised about the bits of the Toshiba being identified than about the MST-13 fragment?

What about the manual for the Toshiba? (Though when we consider that was allegedly found intact and later exhibited damaged, I'm not sure where it goes - just damaged by the forensic testing?)

What about the fact that bits of the radio-cassette player were also allegedly found in the shirt collar along with the MST-13 fragment?




Yes, exactly. Though remember there wasn't a lot of broad daylight around - the crash happened on the winter solstice, in Scotland. We're at the same latitude as the Hudson Bay, here.

If the timer fragment was planted, it was introduced into the chain of evidence quite a bit later, with some doctoring of the paperwork to make it look as if it had been retrieved and logged earlier. However, I think the bits of Toshiba were identified very early indeed, certainly before March 1989, so if that was fabricated, the fabrication must have begun practically from the get-go.

Rolfe.
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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but would it be fair to say that you would have expected the actual triggering mechanism (including timer) to be vaporised, but that the same might not necessarily be true for the radio-cassette player itself?
I would expect both- heres why

The physical construction and the physical properties of the building materials of the alleged device.

Fragmentation ( which is what you are talking about) is another funny beast.

Does it fragment ( stay on the front of the wave) or it is disintegrated ( vaporized in the blast) or both.

It boils down to a combination of factors- some of which are

1) the type/amount of the explosive

2) the thickness and properties of the material

3) the proximity of the charge to the material

4) the security of the container ( structural integrity)

5) any tamping

In this case- we are talking about a commercial plastic case with very thin walls- SCREWED together ( get to that below) that has a high adhesive quality due to being a polymer and a VERY low melting point. Also, theres a lot of "air" in it and it isnt airtight ( various orifices for equalization)

The amount- IF this was the full stick ( as claimed) then you are talking about white hot bubble ( well above 5000f) that will literally vaporize construction steel in about .02 seconds. It it was a slice maybe 1" square ( anti personnel type device) then I would have no problem accepting it.

Problem is- that amount probably wouldnt take out the plane.

I can show you IED's where metal containers have disintegrated but components disimilar such as bolts and brass components have survived.

Now the screwed together part- this plastic case ( with all its properties) was very well secured so it held together and stretched for a nano second until it ruptured. That made it absorb BTUs on one side thus "cracking" it into shards. ( radically different temps on both sides creating thermal shock)

Then it breaks thru and you have all these parts being engulfed at those temps and velocity. It would be like firing a wax bullet.

Then theres secondary containment from the suitcase ( more soak time)

Thus, ANY fragment of PLASTIC by all rights be the same form of dripped candle wax and completely unidentifiable. It would be molten ( if it survived at all- styrene plastics are known for this- thats why they are MELTED at LOW temps and INJECTION MOLDED in industry)

The thing that makes it impossible for me to accept is the TYPE and AMOUNT of this SPECIFIC explosive in relation to the material properties of the casing.

There are many other explosives that all things being equal I wouldnt have any difficulty accepting the official story. Thats not whats claimed tho.

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What about the manual for the Toshiba? (Though when we consider that was allegedly found intact and later exhibited damaged, I'm not sure where it goes - just damaged by the forensic testing?)
I'm "suspicious" of that for a variety of reasons. My OPINION is that it was planted- heres why

I have bought all kinds of similar devices- first thing I throw away is the manual so just the fact its there suggests to me its planted.

If it was there and flat ( as they are) I would expect it to be like any other newspaper in a bomb charred and splayed and torn ( folded paper in layers has very good insulation and physical properties) but probably survive in some form.

The damage- I dont know how they do it in the UK but I know how destructive testing is done here. ( I do it in engineering as well as formerly for LE) Many things are damaged/consumed by testing- thats nothing new.

The process is- take multiple pics where its found and collected- you do the same in the lab before testing- then you have the remains.

Thats evidence chain of custody and testing protocol 101- if all of that is present, I would probably accept it- if they dont- my BS indicator would redline.

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What about the fact that bits of the radio-cassette player were also allegedly found in the shirt collar along with the MST-13 fragment?
The only thing I would believe ( and this is a stretch) is they MIGHT in a million to 1 shot find "globs" of melted goo in any fabric for reasons atated above.

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Yes, exactly. Though remember there wasn't a lot of broad daylight around - the crash happened on the winter solstice, in Scotland. We're at the same latitude as the Hudson Bay, here.
This goes back to scene security and since I wasnt there- I dont know who did what.

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If the timer fragment was planted, it was introduced into the chain of evidence quite a bit later, with some doctoring of the paperwork to make it look as if it had been retrieved and logged earlier. However, I think the bits of Toshiba were identified very early indeed, certainly before March 1989, so if that was fabricated, the fabrication must have begun practically from the get-go.
I can think of 3 possible scenarios

1) the evidence was planted because intel gave them information so they made the facts fit the intel

2) it was planted outright ( a frame)

3) it was planted as a red herring
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Old 23rd September 2009, 09:00 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
The baggage hold is pressurised to the same pressure as the passenger cabin.

That's what I read in some of the Lockerbie sources. I've got separate reasons for doubting it though (to do with imploding drinks cans that soaked my luggage on two occasions). It may not be terribly relevant though.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
It's not the same as air pressure at ground level though.

They must be pressurised such that air pressure never falls below what you might find at 8000ft.

Again, that's exactly the assumption in all the sources dealing with the barometric timers. One of the films had Jibril trying to claim that the devices weren't necessarily intended to attack aircraft, but to target enemies who might be driving up to 8,000 feet on terra firma. It was this degree of reduction in pressure they were set to detect, not the actual pressure at 35,000 feet.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
It takes about 200km for a commercial aircraft to hit cruising altitude of 34000ft, and about the same to descend, It's a little over 600km distance from Frankfurt to london.

That wouldn't of course prove that an airliner on that route would ascend to that height, but I think they do. London and Glasgow are about the same distance apart, and I've flown that route often. Unless I'm completely mis-remembering, that's the altitude we were cruising at.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
So use 2 timers connected to the charge in series. A is the clock timer it's set for published take off time, B is the barometric timer, it blows when it hits the preset altitude pressure in the cabin/hold. Both A and B must be closed else the bomb doesn't go off.

Uh, you scare me.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Why does the shirt and the fragment need to have been part of the bomb? A n other bag containing shirt and an entirely seperate MST type timer not connected to anything are right near the source of the explosion perhaps?

The evidence seems to be fairly clear that only items in close proximity to the bomb would be or were charred (apart from what went up in flames in Sherwood Crescent of course). That's how they identified which clothes had been in the actual suitcase. There's no suggestion that anything in any other cases was charred.

The shirt fragment was charred. It also apparently had bits of Toshiba in it as well as the timer fragment. To my mind, that says it was either part of the bomb, or a fabrication.

Then it gets quite murky, because Gauci's initial testimony (which showed a surprising degree of recall of a transaction that had taken place months earlier, but which seems to have been accurate) made no mention of a shirt. In fact he explicitly stated at least twice that he didn't sell the man a shirt. De Braekeleer has further information that supports Gauci's original list as being correct, which if true suggests Megrahi's defence team should be taken out and shot, but I don't know the source of that. However, Gauci later "remembered" selling the man a slalom shirt. Then, apparently, the size of the pocket on the recovered fragment is wrong for the ize of the shirt Gauci says he sold the man, and the shirt is another of the items (with the blue babygro, which again it's doubtful Gauci supplied, and the Toshiba manual) alleged to have been damaged after they were recovered.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Gaucis revised testimony was that he sold the buyer of the clothes a beige shirt. The shirt the fragment is found in is grey....

Among other inconsistencies that develop in what seems to have initially been an unusually clear and consistent recollection.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
I still don't see any evidence linking the timer fragment to the bomb, much less proving the fragment was part of the bomb.

Yes it's a type of timer used for bombs but it does not follow that it *must* have been used for *this* bomb.

Where else do you think it came from then? Is this the sort of thing most of us might have in our luggage? The finding in charred cloth, which also contained bits of shattered Toshiba, seems to me to indicate either it was genuinely part of this bomb, or a fabrication.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 09:09 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
Those two statements are directly contradictory.



What part of the link confused you? It is the official report by the British Government body which investigates every aircraft crash in the UK, and which reconstructed the whole of PanAm103 after the accident to determine the cause. It was published on paper in 1990. It is as close as we are going to get to primary evidence 20 years after the fact.


I don't know you are wrong, but have no reason to think you are right.





Yes, I'm sorry, my post sounded better in my head than it looks on the screen, I was just amused that the thread had so quickly got onto fairly advanced CTs without even looking at the primary evidence.

Actually Longtabber appears to be claiming almost the opposite of de Braekeleer. De Braekeleer's claim is that 1lb of Semtex could not puncture an aircraft hull from a distance of 25", Longtabber's is that it would vapourise everything in the immediate vicinity, so I don't think they reinforce one another.
The AAIB report I linked to is long and detailed, and carefully explains why they think the bomb was in the cargo container. It was prepared based on the investigations of a large number of people, if it is fraudulent they were all lying, if it is inaccurate it has been in the public domain for 18 years and no-one has identified or publicised the errors.


The evidence for the bomb location seems strong. That for the timer being found exactly as described less so, however what confuses me is exactly what would have been achieved by planting the timer.

Yes it points to Libyan involvement, but unless whoever planted it was very familiar with the history of these timers, and the limited numbers made, how could they know it would point only to Libya? Equally why could Libya not have passed the timers on to a terrorist organisation. They would have some culpability but wouldn't be directly responsible.
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Those two statements are directly contradictory.
No, you took them out of context

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What part of the link confused you? It is the official report by the British Government body which investigates every aircraft crash in the UK, and which reconstructed the whole of PanAm103 after the accident to determine the cause. It was published on paper in 1990. It is as close as we are going to get to primary evidence 20 years after the fact.
None of it confused me

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I don't know you are wrong, but have no reason to think you are right.
Thats why they are called opinions and they are all valid in absence of cold hard facts.

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Yes, I'm sorry, my post sounded better in my head than it looks on the screen, I was just amused that the thread had so quickly got onto fairly advanced CTs without even looking at the primary evidence.
The primary evidence itself is suspect

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Actually Longtabber appears to be claiming almost the opposite of de Braekeleer. De Braekeleer's claim is that 1lb of Semtex could not puncture an aircraft hull from a distance of 25", Longtabber's is that it would vapourise everything in the immediate vicinity, so I don't think they reinforce one another.
I'm not familiar with his claim in chief but if he says a 1lb stick wont puncture ALUMINUM alloys from 25 INCHES- he isnt wrong- he is clinically INSANE but that points needs to be further defined as well because once again, many what if's and lots of words to explain it to non engineering types.

I do know semi from where he is coming tho but from what I just read- he didnt plug in all the facts and didnt include all the variables.

It wouldnt vaporize everything- just like any other fireball- maybe 2-3 feet- heres why

The stick only has X amount of stored energy

That amount is released in a sphere so unless its a shaped charge- it goes all over- not in one direction. ( there could have been some shaping due to location and tamping but those are unknown variables)

Then you have the density and thermal properties of the mass and dimension of everything the heat comes into contact with. ( another variable thats unknown)

Then on top of everything else- you have structural stress of the airframe itself as well as the delta between skin temp and internal temp when massive heat hit it. Thats structure specific and playa a MAJOR part in what THAT ( and no other model) could require before it bursts.

I do DT/NDT on all kinds of metals ( and aircraft components)- you would be surprised what stress cracks are in things that you find from magnet partical, X ray, ultrasonics and resistance testings as well as fastners,rivets and such.

When you are doing such an analysis- there are many variables- you cant assume anything
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Old 23rd September 2009, 09:11 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
Longtabber did.



Surely Tony Gauci's identification of Megrahi as the man who bought the clothes is the key evidence connecting Libya? I know it's unbelivably weak, but I thought that was the basis for the conviction?
No I didnt- you misread something somewhere- I'm talking possible locations WITHIN the container- not elsewhere
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Old 23rd September 2009, 09:49 AM   #165
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Uh, you scare me.
Sorry, I'm quite nice really. Just trying to think of ways to account for this fragment.

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The evidence seems to be fairly clear that only items in close proximity to the bomb would be or were charred (apart from what went up in flames in Sherwood Crescent of course). That's how they identified which clothes had been in the actual suitcase. There's no suggestion that anything in any other cases was charred.
I need to go look at the evidence about the clothing.

I agree that only items in close proximity would be charred. But how do we know how close they had to be?

If Longtabber is correctabout how destructive plastic explosives are, and plastic explosive was used for the bomb then isn't it possible that bomb was in suitcase X, the Samsonite case with the clothes and the radio was next ot it. When the explosion happens it blows the samsonite case to pieces charring some of it's contents and smashing apart the radio, most of suitcase X being vapourised in the process.

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here else do you think it came from then? Is this the sort of thing most of us might have in our luggage?
Clearly not. Though there are CIA people on board the flight, they boarded at Frankfurt, and might potentially have been bringing stuff from the Autumn Leaves raid or other related pieces of evidence back to the US ?
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Old 23rd September 2009, 09:57 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia
So use 2 timers connected to the charge in series. A is the clock timer it's set for published take off time, B is the barometric timer, it blows when it hits the preset altitude pressure in the cabin/hold. Both A and B must be closed else the bomb doesn't go off.

Actually, thinking about it, that wouldn't work with a multi-stage flight. It would blow at the scheduled take-off time, because the barometric timer would already have been triggered. You'd need some way to stop the barometric timer from triggering until the clock timer told it to, and from what I've read about these timers, there was no way to do that - they had to be carried disassembled if going on a flight where you didn't want them to blow.

Not that relevant, sorry.

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Old 23rd September 2009, 10:03 AM   #167
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I don't know how the ice-cube timers are supposed to have worked.

If it's triggered at x pressure and then it stays triggered you're right. If it's like a switch that turns on at x pressure and then off at y pressure then it could have required both to be triggered at the same time to activate.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 10:13 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Actually, thinking about it, that wouldn't work with a multi-stage flight. It would blow at the scheduled take-off time, because the barometric timer would already have been triggered. You'd need some way to stop the barometric timer from triggering until the clock timer told it to, and from what I've read about these timers, there was no way to do that - they had to be carried disassembled if going on a flight where you didn't want them to blow.

Not that relevant, sorry.

Rolfe.
So I'll add slightly to the irrelevance. One of your arguments has been that the explosion over Lockerbie was a mistake, why couldn't have been almost deliberate, that the intention was to have the plane come down on Glasgow, and rain fiery death from the sky on the infidel? and the take off delay made them miss that?
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Old 23rd September 2009, 11:03 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
I don't know how the ice-cube timers are supposed to have worked.

If it's triggered at x pressure and then it stays triggered you're right. If it's like a switch that turns on at x pressure and then off at y pressure then it could have required both to be triggered at the same time to activate.
Red herring here- let me explain these devices from being an EE

"Icecube" is only in reference to their physical appearance and plug in ability

They have a pinned base with a clear top- thus they look like an "ice cube"- their internals can be relays, timers or ( insert function here)

In the curcuit however

a timer is an OUTPUT device that sends a signal- its an internal component ( it can do clock time, count up, count down, on delay, off delay or triggered by another device)

A sensor is a transducer that converts whatever input ( speed,pressure,light,whatever) into an output signal also

timers "count"- thats all they do

Transducers convert a physical input into an output signal- thats all they do

Now, its a matter of how you configure the circuit

If you had both- it could be a dual trigger ( time or pressure- independant of each other) or a progressive trigger ( timer doesnt come on until the pressure sensor tells it to)
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Old 23rd September 2009, 11:09 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Sorry, I'm quite nice really. Just trying to think of ways to account for this fragment.



I need to go look at the evidence about the clothing.

I agree that only items in close proximity would be charred. But how do we know how close they had to be?

If Longtabber is correctabout how destructive plastic explosives are, and plastic explosive was used for the bomb then isn't it possible that bomb was in suitcase X, the Samsonite case with the clothes and the radio was next ot it. When the explosion happens it blows the samsonite case to pieces charring some of it's contents and smashing apart the radio, most of suitcase X being vapourised in the process.



Clearly not. Though there are CIA people on board the flight, they boarded at Frankfurt, and might potentially have been bringing stuff from the Autumn Leaves raid or other related pieces of evidence back to the US ?
Quote:
I agree that only items in close proximity would be charred. But how do we know how close they had to be?
You cant UNLESS you know the exact tamping in and around the actual charge.

Quote:
If Longtabber is correctabout how destructive plastic explosives are, and plastic explosive was used for the bomb then isn't it possible that bomb was in suitcase X, the Samsonite case with the clothes and the radio was next ot it. When the explosion happens it blows the samsonite case to pieces charring some of it's contents and smashing apart the radio, most of suitcase X being vapourised in the process.
I can assure you thats correct ( borrowed an old copy of 5-25 now) I was actually a bit low on most but go to chapter 3, Table VIII on page 83 and read it for yourself.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 12:38 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Well apart from Chris Protheroe giving evidence at the actual trial that is.

[ linky ]

According to de Braekeleer, the judges just decided not to listen to him. "We need not concern ourselves with the Mach Stem Effect."

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
I don't recall anyone in the thread claiming that the bomb was anywhere BUT in the cargo container. The conclusion of the AAIB report was that a bomb caused the destruction of the plane, and that it was located in that cargo container.

It's been commented on several times that it was very bad luck the bomb suitcase was placed so close to the skin of the plane. That couldn't really be controlled unless someone in the Heathrow baggage handling was working for them (Kamboj?). If it had been placed more centrally, it probably wouldn't have fatally damaged the plane. (I think there had been another case in the past where a plane limped home after an incident like that.)

I'm not totally kidding about Kamboj. The baggage containers were shaped to follow the curve of the plane's hull, so it could have been feasible for a baggage handler to place a case deliberately where it would cause maximum damage - as Bedford said the suitcase he saw had been placed. However, I'd have thought the police would have examined Kamboj pretty thoroughly for questionable associations.

Assuming Protheroe is right, and the explosion was a foot from the skin, given that the baggage containers fitted quite closely to the wall of the hold, I'd have thought that a suitcase in exactly the right place could still do it.

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Good point. Though there remains no evidence linking the timer fragment with the bomb itself, and the fragment is the *only* evidence that points to Libya. The other evidence from Giaka that linked Megrahi and Fhima to bombs and tied it all in nicely with the Libya hypothesis was thrown out of court on the basis that Giaka was a lying toad.

The other evidence, as GT pointed out, was Gauci's identification. That was the strong bit, if it had been reliable. Whoever bought those clothes from Gauci was involved in the plot. However, Gauci's evidence was right back in the melting pot, to put it politely. Without that, the case really collapses.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 01:26 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
[snip interesting technicalities]

There are many other explosives that all things being equal I wouldnt have any difficulty accepting the official story. Thats not whats claimed tho.

Have you read the Air Accident report? I'd dearly like to know where you think they went wrong - either through miscalculation, or because they were working with tainted evidence. And do you concur with Protheroe that a mistake was made in the original document?

Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
I'm "suspicious" of that for a variety of reasons. My OPINION is that it was planted- heres why

I have bought all kinds of similar devices- first thing I throw away is the manual so just the fact its there suggests to me its planted.

If it was there and flat ( as they are) I would expect it to be like any other newspaper in a bomb charred and splayed and torn ( folded paper in layers has very good insulation and physical properties) but probably survive in some form.

The damage- I dont know how they do it in the UK but I know how destructive testing is done here. ( I do it in engineering as well as formerly for LE) Many things are damaged/consumed by testing- thats nothing new.

The process is- take multiple pics where its found and collected- you do the same in the lab before testing- then you have the remains.

Thats evidence chain of custody and testing protocol 101- if all of that is present, I would probably accept it- if they dont- my BS indicator would redline.

The woman who found it is interviewed in one of the films I mentioned above, and asked about its condition when she found it compared to when it was produced at the trial.

I'm also somewhat suspicious about the manual, because it's one of the items alleged to have been tampered with after collection. However, as you say, it could simply have been a result of testing for expolsives.

I think the point about the manual was thought to be that the Toshiba was in its original packaging as if it was a new purchase. I don't know what other grounds there were for assuming that though.

Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
The only thing I would believe ( and this is a stretch) is they MIGHT in a million to 1 shot find "globs" of melted goo in any fabric for reasons atated above.

There are photographs.

Second picture down on this page is the shirt, with the fragment, and I believe these are supposed to be bits of the Toshiba to the left of it.

Colour pictures on this page (though Bollier is deifinitely a bit strange).


Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
I can think of 3 possible scenarios

1) the evidence was planted because intel gave them information so they made the facts fit the intel

2) it was planted outright ( a frame)

3) it was planted as a red herring

I've got an open mind on that. However, it was present in the narrative well before the investigation was looking at Libya, and before there seems to be any reason to look at Libya. Perhaps coincidentally (another one of these) its provenance was only established nearly a year after it was logged, just as Saddam was invading Kuwait, and the political imperatives to smear Libya became evident.

This is what makes me feel that it might have been a red herring, more intended to turn attention away from Iran than towards Libya. On the other hand, the "special-order" nature of the things does seem to indicate that a Libyan origin was envisaged from the start, which tends to point more to 1 or 2.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 01:43 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
The primary evidence itself is suspect.

I agree. However, one still has to look at it to try to determine which parts are suspect, and how it might have been manipulated. Also to try to decide where original conclusions might have gone off the rails.

Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
I'm not familiar with his claim in chief but if he says a 1lb stick wont puncture ALUMINUM alloys from 25 INCHES- he isnt wrong- he is clinically INSANE but that points needs to be further defined as well because once again, many what if's and lots of words to explain it to non engineering types.

I do know semi from where he is coming tho but from what I just read- he didnt plug in all the facts and didnt include all the variables.

It wouldnt vaporize everything- just like any other fireball- maybe 2-3 feet- heres why

The stick only has X amount of stored energy

That amount is released in a sphere so unless its a shaped charge- it goes all over- not in one direction. ( there could have been some shaping due to location and tamping but those are unknown variables)

Then you have the density and thermal properties of the mass and dimension of everything the heat comes into contact with. ( another variable thats unknown)

Then on top of everything else- you have structural stress of the airframe itself as well as the delta between skin temp and internal temp when massive heat hit it. Thats structure specific and playa a MAJOR part in what THAT ( and no other model) could require before it bursts.

I do DT/NDT on all kinds of metals ( and aircraft components)- you would be surprised what stress cracks are in things that you find from magnet partical, X ray, ultrasonics and resistance testings as well as fastners,rivets and such.

When you are doing such an analysis- there are many variables- you cant assume anything

I'm a bit hazy just where de Braeckeleer comes in. He's a physicist, so he should have some grasp of all this. However, although he's written a great deal about the incident, unlike the other major commentators I don't know what his connection to it is.

Most of what I've read of his seems to be based on Camp Zeist evidence, however I'm fairly sure he's wrong on a couple of very elementary points - for example that a plane flying from Frankfurt to Heathrow wouldn't reach 35,000 feet, or that an ice-cube timer would never explode if placed in either the cabin or the baggage hold.

His point about the Mach Stem Effect however seems to be taken directly from the Air Accident report, and Protheroe's explanation of the mistake in the calculation. He has an article explaining what he's on about.

Perhaps you could take a look at that lot and assess how justifiable the assumptions are.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 02:16 PM   #174
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Alright that's it. Split thread please.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 03:30 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Have you read the Air Accident report? I'd dearly like to know where you think they went wrong - either through miscalculation, or because they were working with tainted evidence. And do you concur with Protheroe that a mistake was made in the original document?




The woman who found it is interviewed in one of the films I mentioned above, and asked about its condition when she found it compared to when it was produced at the trial.

I'm also somewhat suspicious about the manual, because it's one of the items alleged to have been tampered with after collection. However, as you say, it could simply have been a result of testing for expolsives.

I think the point about the manual was thought to be that the Toshiba was in its original packaging as if it was a new purchase. I don't know what other grounds there were for assuming that though.




There are photographs.

Second picture down on this page is the shirt, with the fragment, and I believe these are supposed to be bits of the Toshiba to the left of it.

Colour pictures on this page (though Bollier is deifinitely a bit strange).





I've got an open mind on that. However, it was present in the narrative well before the investigation was looking at Libya, and before there seems to be any reason to look at Libya. Perhaps coincidentally (another one of these) its provenance was only established nearly a year after it was logged, just as Saddam was invading Kuwait, and the political imperatives to smear Libya became evident.

This is what makes me feel that it might have been a red herring, more intended to turn attention away from Iran than towards Libya. On the other hand, the "special-order" nature of the things does seem to indicate that a Libyan origin was envisaged from the start, which tends to point more to 1 or 2.

Rolfe.
Quote:
Have you read the Air Accident report? I'd dearly like to know where you think they went wrong - either through miscalculation, or because they were working with tainted evidence. And do you concur with Protheroe that a mistake was made in the original document?
I skimmed it and I've got a flight this weekend- I plan to digest it then. Get back to you on that. I see several things that need looking into.

Quote:
However, as you say, it could simply have been a result of testing for expolsives.
I'll buy that as long as the documentation and COC information is intact
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Old 23rd September 2009, 04:13 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I agree. However, one still has to look at it to try to determine which parts are suspect, and how it might have been manipulated. Also to try to decide where original conclusions might have gone off the rails.




Quote:
I'm a bit hazy just where de Braeckeleer comes in. He's a physicist, so he should have some grasp of all this. However, although he's written a great deal about the incident, unlike the other major commentators I don't know what his connection to it is.
Most of what I've read of his seems to be based on Camp Zeist evidence, however I'm fairly sure he's wrong on a couple of very elementary points - for example that a plane flying from Frankfurt to Heathrow wouldn't reach 35,000 feet, or that an ice-cube timer would never explode if placed in either the cabin or the baggage hold.

His point about the Mach Stem Effect however seems to be taken directly from the Air Accident report, and Protheroe's explanation of the mistake in the calculation. He has an article explaining what he's on about.

Quote:
Perhaps you could take a look at that lot and assess how justifiable the assumptions are.
Rolfe.
I'm going to because I have a long flight

Let me give you a bit of a precursor.

My firm has done a substantial amount of expert testimony over the years. ( we are one of those experts who normally are hired to combat the states expert- its happened but we rarely are contracted by the state)

Let me tell you about PhDs. ( Mine is in engineering so technically I could call myself a physicist too and would if I worked in R&D exclusively or in a think tank but in my world, nobody cares much past my P. E. registration except in a CV for a court)

Its my nature to be suspicious of EVERY report issued by anyone. ( comes with experience I guess). I have seen just about every way to hide or ignore information there is- from disguising pseudoscience as science to outright omissions or single line inclusions hidden by 1 million words to keep it from being seen.

One thing thats common. They always seem to say what whoever is paying them wants them to say and often tests ( or other data) is "selectively manipulated" to shore it up. They know laypeople will read it but they also know that laypeople arent going to understand 3/4 of it. They also know lawyers know law- most arent capable of effectively calling them on technical issues.

Just in skimming ( so give me latitude to go back and update/change completely after I read it in depth) I see things that need to be seriously reviewed for accuracy and maybe more important "completeness" of the tests.

One thing that jumps out to me is its very generalized and non descript on the technical aspects. That concerns me.

One thing I did see from the other link- that shirt and debris. I see lots of sharp angles and edges. They might have been blown up but they were NOT exposed to the temps and bubble from that type of explosive. ( sitting on top and in physical contact with a stick of semtex) Theres no melting, ashing or anything.

That shirt doesnt look damaged or surface seared enough to have been there either. It looks like it was wrapped around the end of a shotgun ( with shot removed) and fired off. ( thats how some field expedient suppressors are done or stuffed in a 2 liter bottle for packing)

I'm not in a position yet to tell you what I think happened but I'm 100% convinced now of what didnt happen. Aint no way.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 04:23 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The other evidence, [connecting Libya] as GT pointed out, was Gauci's identification. That was the strong bit, if it had been reliable. Whoever bought those clothes from Gauci was involved in the plot.
Gaucis evidence really doesn't implicate Libya - even if it's 100% rock solid positive identification (and it's very very far from that)

The ID implicates 1 Libyan national, not Libya itself. Yes this national is likely a JSO agent, but he could have been using his status surreptitiously.

Even then you have to prove conclusively that the clothes from Malta are charred by the bomb by virtue of being in the same suitcase that contained the bomb.

I can't remember which film I saw this in, I'll go check, but Richard Marquise is asked about MST-13 and it's importance:

Interviewer: "without this fragment would Megrahi have been convicted?"
RM: "We wouldn't even have got an indictment."
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Old 23rd September 2009, 04:36 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
Alright that's it. Split thread please.

I don't think it's practical to split it now - if you think you can tease out the relevant posts, by all means make the request, but I think it's too much interwoven.

Would there be a vote for starting a new thread to continue discussing the possibility that the Toshiba and all its works were either planted or hideously misinterpreted too?

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Old 23rd September 2009, 04:44 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
Red herring here- let me explain these devices from being an EE

"Icecube" is only in reference to their physical appearance and plug in ability

They have a pinned base with a clear top- thus they look like an "ice cube"- their internals can be relays, timers or ( insert function here)

In the curcuit however

a timer is an OUTPUT device that sends a signal- its an internal component ( it can do clock time, count up, count down, on delay, off delay or triggered by another device)

A sensor is a transducer that converts whatever input ( speed,pressure,light,whatever) into an output signal also

timers "count"- thats all they do

Transducers convert a physical input into an output signal- thats all they do

Now, its a matter of how you configure the circuit

If you had both- it could be a dual trigger ( time or pressure- independant of each other) or a progressive trigger ( timer doesnt come on until the pressure sensor tells it to)

The 38-minutes thing comes from the examination of the timers found in the possession of the PFLP-GP cell. According to the source I was reading, the time these were set for could not be varied by the operative. All the ones found by the German police were set to a time that would have caused an explosion at between 35 and 45 minutes after takeoff.

So far as I know, once the device was triggered by the drop in pressure, that was it. Short of disarming the device, it would blow.

I have read two separate explanations of the timing, but they're similar. One said that all the timers were set to 30 minutes, and it takes seven minutes (about) from take-off for a 747 to reach the altitude that would trigger the timers. The other said they were all set to times that would cause the explosions between 35 and 45 minutes after take-off. It could be that both accounts are describing the same thing, with the former one being the more accurate.

I don't know why the PFLP-GC were restricted to the 30-minute countdown. It's always referred to as if it's an inherent property of the devices they had.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 04:56 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
Even then you have to prove conclusively that the clothes from Malta are charred by the bomb by virtue of being in the same suitcase that contained the bomb.

The clothes from Malta are very strange. They all match up to this one purchase in this one shop - apparently, apart from the ones Gauci only "remembered" about later. They don't seem to match in a suitcase as someone's normal luggage - assorted random men's things, and a baby-gro? No underwear or toiletries mentioned at all. It does fit with the idea that the stuff was bought just to pack round the bomb and make the suitcase look plausible to a cursory inspection or an x-ray.

Gauci remembers the purchaser. I don't think he's bright enough to be making this lot up or acting. Colin Boyd said he was "a sandwich short of a picnic". It has always stood out for me in this evidence that a man of middle eastern appearance really did go into his shop one midweek evening in early winter when it was raining and buy that stuff. And that Gauci's main problem has been recognising and identifying him. (Aso that investigators subsequently persuaded him that he sold stuff he originally denied selling.)

This hugely suspect assortment of clothes, originating from this weird purchase, just happened to be in the next suitcase?

Along with a Toshiba radio-cassette, awfully similar to the ones Khreesat was playing with in Frankfurt?



Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
I can't remember which film I saw this in, I'll go check, but Richard Marquise is asked about MST-13 and it's importance:

Interviewer: "without this fragment would Megrahi have been convicted?"
RM: "We wouldn't even have got an indictment."

The Dutch one I've just watched, I think.

Rolfe.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 05:41 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
His point about the Mach Stem Effect however seems to be taken directly from the Air Accident report, and Protheroe's explanation of the mistake in the calculation. He has an article explaining what he's on about.

Perhaps you could take a look at that lot and assess how justifiable the assumptions are.

Rolfe.
That report makes a lot of technical sense and I definitely see where he is coming from and going. Similar to where I was going.

The big selling point for me is this 20x20 hole with the petaling.

Thats consistent with that size charge very close to plate metal. ( I think I said 2-3 feet somewhere earlier) That says placed charge to me rather than the suitcase theory.

What would tell me "yes" or "no" in certain terms is an X ray analysis of the entire area paying close attention to heat affected zones at the edges.

Its like what I do on machined parts cut by lasers.

If the bomb was close and did it- the heat had to hit it and change the density of the metal and thermal shock is easy to see.

If the hole was made by explosive force ( pushing until the MoE reached and it ruptured) ( further from the bubble)- that would show up as well

If it was punched thru as in projectile as a secondary effect- that would be distinguishable too.

Were any such tests as these done? I see where microscopy was done but nothing NDT related.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 06:03 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The clothes from Malta are very strange. ... They don't seem to match in a suitcase as someone's normal luggage - ... It does fit with the idea that the stuff was bought just to pack round the bomb and make the suitcase look plausible to a cursory inspection or an x-ray.
What evidence is there that the clothes mentionned and only those clothes were in this suitcase? It's Dec 21st, perhaps some of the items in the case are destined for Christmas presents in America and the case also had other "normal mens luggage" packed in it as well that were not found. This suitcase blew apart and the contents fell from 31000ft up.

I agree that if these clothes the radio and nothing else was in that case, then it looks mighty suspicious.

Quote:
Gauci remembers the purchaser. I don't think he's bright enough to be making this lot up or acting.
I agree here.

Quote:
This hugely suspect assortment of clothes, originating from this weird purchase, just happened to be in the next suitcase?

Along with a Toshiba radio-cassette, awfully similar to the ones Khreesat was playing with in Frankfurt?
Toshiba radio cassette players aren't exactly rare, and it wasn't that similar to the Khreesat bomb from the Frankfurt raid, but I take your point.
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Old 23rd September 2009, 06:27 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post


Toshiba radio cassette players aren't exactly rare, and it wasn't that similar to the Khreesat bomb from the Frankfurt raid, but I take your point.
Let me elaborate here and maybe clear up a few points. Its referring to these flags I see and experience. I dont think I have related fully where I'm coming from.

This comes purely from the engineer in me and my company and what we do.

We specialize in all the process engineering ( TQM, 6 Sigma, Weibull, ISO and all that) as well as RFCA/FMECA, predictive technologies and DT/NDT and the ancillary areas.

The thing with anything Japanese ( and bomb makers who use them without sterilizing them) is the Japanese literally live and die on process control and tracibility.

They can trace all the way up and down the chain from raw material literally to final purchaser if need be. ( we test this in audits all the time)

The casing is one thing but the maker would need to remove the dataplate, internal guts and even shave off mold ID's or run the risk of possible tracing UNLESS he wanted you to find something or it was just "stolen" and they didnt care. They dont out and PURCHASE them for the reasons above. ( thats a very real trail right back to their door- those serial numbers and bar codes mean things)

Amatuers dont always realize this- professionals do

On the explosion/device - its about the same.

I do testing of components ranging from cuts/stamps to boiler refractories, molds and almost everything including failures. ( textbook RCFA/FMECA)

When you break an explosion down into its parts- its heat,pressure and time in infinite combinations- no different than any other ruptured pressure vessel or whatever.

Theres a test for almost everything- the question is- did you recognize the need for the specific test and run it. They you compare tests.

I do this every day so thats what I start from.

There are 2 standard methods for doing this ( both work and have their own set of problems- SMART engineers do BOTH and look for what matches and doesnt)

1) assemble the causes and extrapolate the effect
2) examine the effect and determine the cause

I'm simply starting at the cause (2) because in my world, I seldom get #1- I get a box or pallet of mangled "stuff" and the client wants me to determine the cause.

So far ( still reading) these people seem to be working from #1- what I'm seeing ( actually, not seeing) is a strong lack of #2 to validate the findings of #1.

Thats swimming in shark infested waters with a steak necklace from a professional perspective.

I see a lack of detailed testing to validate these different theories. Its like they are throwing propositions out there seeing what sticks.

But, still looking
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Old 23rd September 2009, 11:17 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I don't think it's practical to split it now - if you think you can tease out the relevant posts, by all means make the request, but I think it's too much interwoven.

Would there be a vote for starting a new thread to continue discussing the possibility that the Toshiba and all its works were either planted or hideously misinterpreted too?

Rolfe.
You're right of course. I was typing in a moment of frustration. There's enough off-topic info to start a new thread, and it does clutter examination of this key piece of evidence, but I for one wouldn't want to decide where to cut.

I'm working on sorting out the details on the fragment, Mebo vs. FBI stories, etc. Not sure if my head will blow up before posting the results here. We'll see.
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Old 24th September 2009, 02:01 AM   #185
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Longtabber, apologies for getting exasperated with you there. I think you have some serious potential to help folks out if you do get to care enough about this stuff to really dig in to the available material and add to it, with concrete stuff. It would be awesome in its might. Any area that interests you most, you've got a lot of good thoughts.

FWIW I totally agree that so little would remain of the radio and timer that the chunks we've been shown are questionable. That collar does look like pretty burly fabric, and there are dynamics by which one or two odd frgments might be just shielded enough, etc... I can't vouch for the science til I can see it point-by-point in great detail, like you'd break it to a 3-year-old, and I think I'd run screaming from that right now anyway so... I have to remain a little ambivalent on the plausibility of it and let that steady me to look closer.

First, the Comparison photo I've been working off of, the (blue?) circuit board used in the investigation as exhibit PT/35(b). Rolfe: do you know where deBrackeleer got this from? It was app. printed ... do we have a primary source where we can verify it as the gebuine evidence photo unaltered?

Second, do we know if this is the very photo taken by political scientist agent Thurman, shown on ABC News in 1991? Has anyone seen where video or still from this broadcast can be found?

ETA: The comparison model, DP/347(a), is I would presume the comparison Thurman is said to have used:
Quote:
in the timer that had been seized from a Libyan intelligence agent, Mohammad al-Marzouk, who had been arrested in Dakar airport, Senegal ten months before PA 103 (The Independent, December 19, 1990). Marzouk was found to be carrying 9.5 pounds (4.3 kg) of Semtex, several packets of TNT, 10 detonators, and an electronic timer—a so-called MST-13 timer—with the word Mebo printed on it.
wiki
This was supposed to a green type board as well, right?

I had thought this could hardly be a green circuit board of the usual green I've seen - there is a serious blue tint issue, so I messed with color adjustments in Photoshop. I'm no pro at this, whether the color schemes can translate so a simple RGB-CMYK adjustment will give honest results... FWIW then:

The bottom two are global adjustments - across the whole image indiscriminately. I didn't really keep track except to achieve in one case a normal looking board, and in the other normal-looking labels. Apologies for the nerdiness or if I'm missing something obvious.

Last edited by Caustic Logic; 24th September 2009 at 02:08 AM. Reason: added wiki quote
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Old 24th September 2009, 04:30 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Can I drag this back on to the topic of the timer fragment, and request that if we have further to say about the possibility that the entire suitcase bomb was a fabrication/error we take it to a new thread?

I know it's grown naturally out of the original topic, but the line of thinking that questions the authenticity of the entire suitcase theory (as opposed to the provenance of the timer fragment) is quite a different one from the timer issue.

I'm going to start a new thread and copy the last couple of relevant posts on that issue into it. Perhaps we could try to keep the two issues separate? I agree with GT that it would facilitate discussion.

Rolfe.
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Old 24th September 2009, 07:50 AM   #187
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Ambrosia mentioned the Dutch film "Lockerbie Revisited", and I watched it last night. This is obviously very recent, as it ends with a couple of impromptu interviews conducted at the 20-year memorial service for the crash, which would have been just before Christmas last year. So the film itself must be no older than early 2009.

The interviews degenerate into a huge row about the provenance of the timer fragment. Thurman, who has by that time been quite thoroughly discredited so far as his professional competence and ethics are concerned, states quite categorically that he did not make his identification from a photograph, but from the actual exhibit. He says the finger in an apparently iconic photo of the fragment I hadn't seen before (and which apparently shows the reverse side of the thing) is his. And the photo was taken in America.

At the same time (literally - this is all happening with grieving relatives in the background) Marquise and a guy who identifies himself as Henderson, a senior Scottish police officer in charge of the investigation, declare absolutely categorically that the fragment never left Britain.

I'm not sure we can determine what was in the system before Thurman came up with the "it's part of a MeBo timer!" breakthrough in June 1990. I've never seen this polaroid that Feraday was supposed to have sent to Williamson the previous September, for example.

I need to dig around a bit more and see just what's alleged to have gone on between the Feraday polaroid and the Thurman breakthrough. Williamson is supposed to have spent months trying to figure out what it was, but this is all pretty hazy.

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Old 24th September 2009, 08:03 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The interviews degenerate into a huge row about the provenance of the timer fragment. Thurman, who has by that time been quite thoroughly discredited so far as his professional competence and ethics are concerned, states quite categorically that he did not make his identification from a photograph, but from the actual exhibit. He says the finger in an apparently iconic photo of the fragment I hadn't seen before (and which apparently shows the reverse side of the thing) is his. And the photo was taken in America.

Rolfe.
Maybe this is the picture?



Found it on Google by searching for "mst-13 timer thurman"
Btw, it was uploaded on infowars. So it might be a fake, I'll let you figure that out.

Interesting topic. For me, the trial seems very suspicious.
I'm not so sure anything was planted though

EDIT:
Here's the first Lockerbie judgement:
http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/library...ejudgement.pdf

And here's the appeal:
http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/library...ejudgement.pdf

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Old 24th September 2009, 09:29 AM   #189
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That does resemble the picture shown in Lockerbie Revisited. Is it really the other side of the bit in the other pictures though? It doesn't appear to be the same shape.

I'm not sure anything was planted either. I'm also not sure that it wasn't, though, and a remarkable number of otherwise quite respectable people seem to have strong suspicions that it was planted.

Rolfe.
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Old 24th September 2009, 11:21 AM   #190
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First post here but I have been following this thread over the last few days.

I have seen that picture of the circuit board fragment on a finger on a few Pan Am 103 related sites and News sources.

I am pretty certain that it is not a fragment of the MST 13 timer. It looks like a fragment of a circuit board from a mass produced radio receiver (Toshiba ?) that has been screen printed with component numbers as part of the manufacturing process

The L108 will be reference to Inductor number 108. If you look in any combined radio casette player you will find many inductors in the radio receiver part of the circuit board
All component positions are marked with a letter which designates the component type
C = capacitor, R = resistor, SW = Switch L = Inductor The number is not the value but to reference the component on a circuit diagram

From the MST 13 Timer images I have seen the board does not appear to be screen printed with component numbers.The cost of artwork and printing can only be justified for large volume mass produced items Also a timer circuit would be unlikely to use an inductor in its circuit design.

I have some more thoughts on the timer fragment that I will get to asap. I have spent the last 30 years working with printed circuits and a few things about the fragment offered as evidence dont seem right to me

David
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Old 24th September 2009, 12:00 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by realdon View Post
First post here but I have been following this thread over the last few days.

I have seen that picture of the circuit board fragment on a finger on a few Pan Am 103 related sites and News sources.

I am pretty certain that it is not a fragment of the MST 13 timer. It looks like a fragment of a circuit board from a mass produced radio receiver (Toshiba ?) that has been screen printed with component numbers as part of the manufacturing process

The L108 will be reference to Inductor number 108. If you look in any combined radio casette player you will find many inductors in the radio receiver part of the circuit board
All component positions are marked with a letter which designates the component type
C = capacitor, R = resistor, SW = Switch L = Inductor The number is not the value but to reference the component on a circuit diagram

From the MST 13 Timer images I have seen the board does not appear to be screen printed with component numbers.The cost of artwork and printing can only be justified for large volume mass produced items Also a timer circuit would be unlikely to use an inductor in its circuit design.

I have some more thoughts on the timer fragment that I will get to asap. I have spent the last 30 years working with printed circuits and a few things about the fragment offered as evidence dont seem right to me

David
Welcome aboard

First time I ever saw it

I agree with your assessment and it would be a simple matter to show what production line board it matches.

I have a bigger concern- if you believe the story and the stuffing of the radio with 1+/- lbs of semtex

You have to accept that the explosive was packed in direct contact with this board and all around it to make sure the mystery timer could fit too.

Thats touching at the "moment of truth" so thats why I cant accept it even exists much less has legible numbers on it.

If all this miracle PLASTIC and board materials survived- where are the METAL parts as well? Where are the speaker fragments and magnets, transformers, coils.

Some that should certainly survive too. Nope, no metals at all- just pieces of plastic in direct contact with a high temp explosive that should have vaporized them since it "obviously" vaporized the much stronger metals also in direct contact with it. ( I would believe a speaker magnet and housing as dense as it is being iron would stand a much better chance)

Must be "smart" semtex
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Old 24th September 2009, 12:10 PM   #192
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Ceud měle fŕilte, by the way.

Originally Posted by realdon View Post
I am pretty certain that it is not a fragment of the MST 13 timer. It looks like a fragment of a circuit board from a mass produced radio receiver (Toshiba ?) that has been screen printed with component numbers as part of the manufacturing process

I think you're right. I think it's a bit of Toshiba.

There was another bit of circuit board that was important in the Lockerbie investigation, over and above the MST-13. Here's how Paul foot describes that discovery, while summarising the contemporary Sunday Tines reporting of the story.

Quote:
“From the moment a policeman picked up a little piece of printed circuit board which had fallen onto the floor from a shattered luggage pallet, investigators were on their way to solving the mystery of who had carried out the biggest mass murder on British territory.”

Thanks to what the article described as “the brilliance of Allen Fereday, Britain’s foremost forensics expert” the fragment was traced to a Toshiba radio cassette recorder which had contained the explosive device. The Toshiba was in turn traced to a Samsonite suitcase placed by “probably the most brilliant piece of detective work in the inquiry” in the second layer of a luggage pallet on Pan Am 103.

I think that's what this picture is. A picture of the first bit of the Toshiba they found, which started them on the road to the "suitcase bomb" explanation. How and why would anyone mistake it for a picture of the MST-13 fragment? This is worth a little bit more investigation. Thurman, and Lockerbie Revisited, both seem to be accepting it as the bit of timer.

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Old 24th September 2009, 12:17 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by LONGTABBER PE View Post
I have a bigger concern- if you believe the story and the stuffing of the radio with 1+/- lbs of semtex

[....]

Sure.

And we've got a whole other thread to look at that. To give this thread half a chance at examining the "mystery fragment" in detail.

Let's just suppose, for the sake of argument, that the explosion was as claimed, and bits of Toshiba, and clothes, and suitcase, were recovered as described.

You never know, we might find out something.

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Old 24th September 2009, 12:24 PM   #194
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Sure.

And we've got a whole other thread to look at that. To give this thread half a chance at examining the "mystery fragment" in detail.

Let's just suppose, for the sake of argument, that the explosion was as claimed, and bits of Toshiba, and clothes, and suitcase, were recovered as described.

You never know, we might find out something.

Rolfe.
OK, who is to say ( and prove by any forensic technique known to exist) that there couldnt be MORE than 1 toshiba radio ( VERY common device) on another piece of luggage or that said board isnt a production line board used in several models?

I would need to see exactly how they matched it and to what as well as a residue test. Until they do that- they have nothing more than a guess.

Its a dangerous premise to assume that just because you found something that looks like something- its really a part of that specific something.
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Old 24th September 2009, 12:58 PM   #195
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Just saying, let's keep this thread on-topic to the provenance of the timer fragment.

We know you don't think it could have survived at all, as alleged. Which is interesting, and relevant. But if we continually go down that route, we'll fail to examine the details of the Official Version, and the plausibility of the timer fragment as it relates to that.

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Old 24th September 2009, 01:44 PM   #196
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the "finger photo" is Toshiba and the circuit board is beige, it's one of the images in the first few minutes of the Al Jazeera film.

There were off the top of head 16 such bits of Toshiba circuit board, all similar in size.

One was found on a pallet, one was found within the folded/torn metal of the fuselage near the explosion.
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Old 24th September 2009, 02:06 PM   #197
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Rolfe, this is cool, thanks. A bit more room to work. Unfortunately I have a hectic weekend starting sometime today and won't be able to contribute as much until sometime Sunday. Luckily, we have TWO new conversants! Welcome JHawk and realdon!

And now we're getting somewhere. I'd seen that finger photo in a similar search looking for the video. I figured it was misused by some numbskull to illustrate something. It's clearly not the almost-square piece we're looking at anyway. But come to hear it IS claimed by some as an "iconic" photo of just that? Hmmm... I'll check that video soon. Apparently I stopped too early on it before. It's also shown in the AJazeera vid, as general radio board, huh? And that's what it seems to be? Alright, I'll be back.

Originally Posted by Longtabber PE
Its a dangerous premise to assume that just because you found something that looks like something- its really a part of that specific something.
Absolutely. And for that same scientist (Dr. Thomas Hayes) to, as Ambrosia and Rolfe have mentioned, decide against explosives residue tests altogether (too small a fragment he said), and to apparently insert his notes on it later, renumbering the pages to accommodate it, both add to the suspicions.
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Old 24th September 2009, 02:13 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post


Absolutely. And for that same scientist (Dr. Thomas Hayes) to, as Ambrosia and Rolfe have mentioned, decide against explosives residue tests altogether (too small a fragment he said), and to apparently insert his notes on it later, renumbering the pages to accommodate it, both add to the suspicions.
Thats not an excuse I accept

Thats not destructive testing and what harm can a wipe do or UV scan?

Also, there is microscopic examination for pitting, heat etc

Even if theres no identification of the explosive by trace- theres other physical evidence of being at the heart of an explosion.
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Old 24th September 2009, 02:18 PM   #199
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Briefly on my color confusion: It does seem the second site linked by Rolfe shows a different Mebo MST-13, intact and it's quite blue. It's next to the equally blue PT35(b) - a different, blurrier photo - which is again described as green. I guess Swiss green circuit boards in the 1980s were just called green but actually blue?

Anyway, there are also issues between the clear side-by-side photo ad this blurry close-up - the latter has scratches, the "letter M" and a broad sribble patch (labeled "scratches by Lumpert" in German), while the former does not (visibly anyway). Why would these be on one photo but not the other? Obviously added later, unless sanded off later, or a photo illusion, or photo editing. I'll be back too with comparisons of that.

Okay the video now...

ETA: Cool on the timeline! I've been putting together my own, looks almost the same, will compare and take what's new.

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Old 24th September 2009, 02:20 PM   #200
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Here's my summary of the timeline.

Incident to mid-March 1989. Investigation proceeds apace, though with a lot of CIA presence shadowing the police and allegedly interfering with evidence. Includes discovery of Toshiba and suitcase fragments. Connection made to Jibril and the PFLP-GC. Great anticipation of imminent arrests communicated to media on 16th March.

13th January 1989. Alleged discovery of the piece of charred shirt with fragments of Toshiba and MST-13 by PC Gilchrist. At later inspections, the label of this evidence bag is seen to have been altered.

Mid-March 1989. Alleged conversation between Thatcher and Bush, agreeing to take a "low-key" approach, for reasons connected to the security services.

12th May 1989. Thomas Hayes allegedly discovers the timer fragment while doing detailed examination of material collected from the crash site. However, the loose-leaf page on which he records this appears to be a later interpolation into the notes. Hayes and Feraday consistently maintain that the fragment they dealt with was green.

July 1989. Parkinson's promise to the relatives of a public inquiry is vetoed by Thatcher; he later attributes this to a need to protect security sources. No further government enouragement of speculation or enquiry, however press reports that the PFLP-GC have been identified as the perpetrators continue.

September 1989. Alan Feraday apparently notices that there's something interesting in the material logged as having been examined by Hayes in May, and decides to draw it to Williamson's attention. However, there is no photograph or drawing of the fragment, and he has to take a hurried Polaroid shot to send to him.

September 1989 to June 1990. Nothing happens as regards the mystery fragment, because nobody knows what it is. Williamson is apparently trawling Europe's electronics manufacturers to try to identify it.

Spring 1990. Increasing tensions in Middle East foreshadow the 1990 Gulf War.

June 1990. Thomas Thurman identifies a photograph of the fragment as a part of an MST-13 timer, similar to one which had been recovered from a Libyan agent in the Middle East. Manufacturer still not known, but subsequently identified as MeBo of Switzerland.

22nd June 1990. Date of Lumpert's confessed passing of a brown non-functional MST-13 prototype to someone involved in the Lockerbie investigation.

July 1990. Iraqi troops massing on border with Kuwait.

2nd August 1990. Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait.

November 1990. Visit(s) of Scottish and US law enforcement officials to MeBo. There is disagreement regarding who visited and when, which would bear closer investigation.

January 1991. Operation Desert Storm.

I'm trying to figure out when a fabricated fragment might actually have been introduced into the system, correlated with concurrent political events, and how far back the evidence trail might have been falsified to make it appear that the item was identified significantly earlier, before Middle Eastern politics provided motivation to place the blame on Libya. Not sure whether this flies or not. I really need to read more primary sources, because Foot has made some minor errors, and de Braeckeleer and Bollier do not necessarily come over as the full shilling.

Rolfe.
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