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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 2nd August 2022, 02:32 AM   #2761
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.
Ukraine has the advantage, they can choose their line of attack and switch their forces.
Russia are pretty much on the defensive.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 04:39 AM   #2762
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To poke at a more general update regarding the Kherson counteroffensive -



Not as fast as pretty much any of us would prefer, I'm sure, but they are pushing forwards. A fair bit faster than Russia's pushing forward on the eastern front, for that matter, by the look of it.
I don't believe the 46 settlements since the start of the counteroffensive. 46 settlements in the south since March -- that is possible.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 06:07 AM   #2763
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.
A spent athlete is still going to outperform me.in a sporting contest
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Old 2nd August 2022, 06:53 AM   #2764
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
A spent athlete is still going to outperform me.in a sporting contest
True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.

My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects) and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 07:46 AM   #2765
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
I share your fear.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 07:48 AM   #2766
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?

ETA: then looking another year ahead, what happens if "The Donald" is POTUS again?

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Old 2nd August 2022, 08:01 AM   #2767
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.

My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects) and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.

My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
Do you want the West to provide aid as an act of charity, or do you think it advances Western domestic interests?
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Old 2nd August 2022, 08:04 AM   #2768
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Do you want the West to provide aid as an act of charity, or do you think it advances Western domestic interests?
I admit that I made a mistake in materially responding to your first post.

I shall not do so for a second time in case the thread gets completely derailed in a predictable way.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 08:25 AM   #2769
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I admit that I made a mistake in materially responding to your first post.

I shall not do so for a second time in case the thread gets completely derailed in a predictable way.
I don't think it is a BS question. If your view is that it should be done for the sake of human need, then that is your value judgement. But your post also isn't clear of the future Russian activity is a value concern or if you are making a national self interest argument. Either are fine, I just don't want to say you support one when you support either (or both or neither).
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Old 2nd August 2022, 09:02 AM   #2770
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
Seems like whackamole to me. Russia diverts their eastern forces to Kherson, and Ukraine will start clobbering Donetsk or push from Kharkiv. At least Russia has realized what's strategically important, but it might be too late if they can't maintain access to the city of Kherson.
Russia's likely losing ground around Izyum now, for example, and there were reports of more general hollowing out of their holding forces in the south.

Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth View Post
I don't believe the 46 settlements since the start of the counteroffensive. 46 settlements in the south since March -- that is possible.
IIRC, this counteroffensive has been going on for a while now, anyways. At least since Ukraine crossed the river and hit around Davydiv Brid, with a decent chance that it's been longer given the relative information blocking going on. They've been making increasing progress on the northern side of that battlefield in recent days, either way, and have likely effectively cut off a couple groups of Russian invaders and progressed further south from there.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 09:43 AM   #2771
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.

The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force
Really? I'm not getting that message at all.

The message I'm getting is that Russia has less military resources to spend than previously estimated; that they're spending those resources at a high rate for marginal gains; that this rate of spending cannot be sustained much longer; and that this combined with Ukraine's (equally surprising) resilience means there is a growing chance that Ukraine can not only resist the Russian advance, but even turn the tide of battle and drive the Russians back.

Quote:
and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders.
Yes, that would be the ideal result. Have you ever heard of a bust-out? In the later stages, a business can already be hollowed out and incapable of ever resuming normal operations, while still finding a final few sources of credit to exploit before it's fully used up. I suspect that's probably the core of the western strategy right now: Force Putin to run a bust-out on his own armed forces, in an attempt to keep things going in Ukraine. I think the Russian military is already deep in it, probably too far to recover at this point. The only question is how much longer Putin can or will keep the bust-out going.

Quote:
My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects)
*That* is your concern? Hasn't the actual sequence of events been the opposite? Prior to February, it seems Western intelligence believed that Russia's strength and capability was far greater than it has turned out to be. The west has been gearing up for a near-peer conflict. They expected the Russian army to be a less-advanced, but still well-equipped and highly competent fighting force, with some areas of true excellence, such as air defense and long-range artillery.

Now that we see them in action, we're realizing they're barely up to the challenge of holding their own against Ukraine. Their air defenses are okay. Their long-range artillery is okay. Their logistics are ass. Their training and maintenance are ass. Their morale is probably somewhere between okay and ass.

It's clear that Russia is still able to field some functional formations. But the level of functionality, and the total number of units being fielded, is far less than what we expected.

If Putin had a mass of well-equipped, well-trained, highly competent troops, it was probably the ones he committed to Kiev, which were thrown back and apparently destroyed.

It's amazing that in a world where it's clear that Russian military officials have successfully over-represented their actual numbers and readiness, you still insist on believing those things have been under-represented.

Quote:
and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective.
That doesn't make any sense. Russians are not magic. Russia is holding out because they're throwing more and more of what we know to be limited reserves at a smaller area of operation in an attempt to hang onto very limited gains.

The only thing we don't know for sure is exactly how long Russia can sustain this level of spend, for these marginal gains. We're pretty sure it won't be long enough to exhaust western support for Ukraine. And at the moment it doesn't seem like it will soon exhaust the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting.

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is limited manpower. If they do counterattack, they probably won't have the troops to try it more than a few times. So it makes sense that they would chip away at the Russians in the meantime, waiting until they've built up enough of an advantage, and deteriorated the enemy forces sufficiently, to initiate a decisive battle in their favor.

Quote:
My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time.
: (
I think Russia has already passed the point where it will be ready for another go in a few years. Decades, maybe. If they carry out some major reforms, and also somehow rev up their economy.

The army that broke out in the east and also advanced on Kiev doesn't exist anymore. The army that's still fighting in the east is a lot weaker than we expected back in February.

For someone who supposedly wants the west to stay committed, you sure seem quick to discard "this is working, let's keep doing it" in favor of "this isn't working, let's rethink".

I think what we're doing is working. I think the Russian military is much weaker than we believed a year ago. I think it's probably hollowing itself out pretty quick, to keep up a strong front in the East. How strong that front actually is, and how fragile it will prove to be, if and when Ukraine counterattacks, remains to be seen.

It's already clear it's not strong enough to make any kind of major push, or drive the Ukrainians substantially back. I think the Secret Formations you fear, that will show up Real Soon Now to enable a Russian push, don't exist. Quite the opposite: I think the troops being sent to shore up the eastern front are going to be progressively weaker and weaker. I think Ukraine's biggest concern right now is not whether they could crush the Russians around Kherson, but whether they can do it with enough reserves to avoid a pyrrhic victory and leave themselves open to any half-assed invasion that might seek to take advantage. And I think that every week that passes, with the Russians trying to keep up appearances, and the Ukrainians getting stronger and stronger, tips the balance further in Ukraines favor.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 10:08 AM   #2772
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?

ETA: then looking another year ahead, what happens if "The Donald" is POTUS again?

If God/doG/FSM forbid Trump is reelected, he will not reassume office until two years from next January. I have maintained, and continue to maintain, that whatever plans he may have to cut Ukraine off will be moot because if the war is still going on, Russia will have suffered both military and economic collapses by then.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 10:52 AM   #2773
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.

Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages?
...
Like many other your fears, this one has about as much backing as all others. None. Can you guess why?
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Old 2nd August 2022, 02:13 PM   #2774
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So, as I predicted, Russia hasn't pulled out of the International Space Station.

It's not that I don't think they could, and not that I believe them when they say anything. Rather, they've made bombastic statements about their space program before. It's a case of, "I'll believe it when I see it."
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Old 2nd August 2022, 02:59 PM   #2775
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Another thread by ChrisO on Russian infantry based on their words. This is on the growing divide between soldiers and officers.
Promises of rotation back to Russia never happens, support helicopters mainly can't fly, those that do fail to hit targets but report they do so unsupported infantry sent in etc.



https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...68649268232192
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Old 2nd August 2022, 04:01 PM   #2776
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Another thread by ChrisO on Russian infantry based on their words. This is on the growing divide between soldiers and officers.
Promises of rotation back to Russia never happens, support helicopters mainly can't fly, those that do fail to hit targets but report they do so unsupported infantry sent in etc.
Apparently there are other broken promises:

Quote:
Russian regional officials are failing to make promised payments to a volunteer battalion. The Russian liberal online outlet Dozhd reported on August 1 that the 40 servicemembers of the Chuvash “Atal” Volunteer Battalion have yet to receive payments for their enlistment and training period prior to deployment to Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-august-1
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Old 2nd August 2022, 04:23 PM   #2777
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A forty-soldier "battalion". Usually it's about a thousand-soldier formation. And Russia can't even afford to pay them. But maybe the Russian Army is still going strong, with unsuspected reserves of manpower still to draw on...
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Old 2nd August 2022, 05:34 PM   #2778
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Been reading various twitter threads about Russian soldiers. If the claims of pressuring conscripts with contracts is true then that can help explain the strange manpower numbers.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 07:01 PM   #2779
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
A forty-soldier "battalion". Usually it's about a thousand-soldier formation. And Russia can't even afford to pay them. But maybe the Russian Army is still going strong, with unsuspected reserves of manpower still to draw on...
Hell, 40 men is about one third of a standard company.
I know that military units are always under book strength..they almost never have what they should have on paper..but this is taking it to new heights.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 10:17 PM   #2780
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And... update time.

Quote:
Ukraine's army has regained already 53 (+7) settlements in Kherson Oblast as it continues slowly advancing in the south.

Information on regained land is reported only in coordination with GenStaff, after the army has full control there, a spokesman said.
Keep up the good work, Ukraine!
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Old 2nd August 2022, 11:03 PM   #2781
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This post has aged well.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
There will be no Ukrainian counter-offensive. It is essentially over already. As Putin said, they haven't even started yet (paraphrasing). I lurk in your thread and I admire your intention, but these people will stay with you for a long time. The Ukraine is toast.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 11:22 PM   #2782
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
This post has aged well.
As I said at the time:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I'm looking forward to adding this to the "Things Childlike Empress was 100% wrong about" list.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 12:35 AM   #2783
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
This post has aged well.
I'm sure that there are *reasons* why this is not a counterattack

These might include:
  • Reports of Ukrainian gains on the Kherson front are fake news, Russia is holding its positions comfortably, and even advancing
  • Any Ukrainian "gains" are merely the result of Russian forces making tactical withdrawals for humanitarian and/or sound military reasons
  • The gains are so minor that they don't really count as a counterattack, merely the ebb and flow of the front
  • This is not a Ukrainian counterattack, it's a NATO attack on Russia

I'm sure there are many others we'll get to enjoy in three weeks or so.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 12:57 AM   #2784
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Thank you for the comprehensive response. I'll try to keep this to a manageable length.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Really? I'm not getting that message at all.

The message I'm getting is that Russia has less military resources to spend than previously estimated; that they're spending those resources at a high rate for marginal gains; that this rate of spending cannot be sustained much longer; and that this combined with Ukraine's (equally surprising) resilience means there is a growing chance that Ukraine can not only resist the Russian advance, but even turn the tide of battle and drive the Russians back.
The thing is that we've been told for a considerable time now that they're expending forces at a and that it cannot be sustained - and yet here we are, nearly six months in and it seems that it can be sustained.


Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Yes, that would be the ideal result. Have you ever heard of a bust-out? In the later stages, a business can already be hollowed out and incapable of ever resuming normal operations, while still finding a final few sources of credit to exploit before it's fully used up. I suspect that's probably the core of the western strategy right now: Force Putin to run a bust-out on his own armed forces, in an attempt to keep things going in Ukraine. I think the Russian military is already deep in it, probably too far to recover at this point. The only question is how much longer Putin can or will keep the bust-out going.
What if that never happens, or more accurately what happens if this takes years. Russia is amply financed thanks to their commodities sales and there seems to be no shortage of equipment. The type of war they've settled on doesn't require anything leading edge, their vast reserves of Soviet-era hardware is adequate for the job

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
*That* is your concern? Hasn't the actual sequence of events been the opposite? Prior to February, it seems Western intelligence believed that Russia's strength and capability was far greater than it has turned out to be. The west has been gearing up for a near-peer conflict. They expected the Russian army to be a less-advanced, but still well-equipped and highly competent fighting force, with some areas of true excellence, such as air defense and long-range artillery.

Now that we see them in action, we're realizing they're barely up to the challenge of holding their own against Ukraine. Their air defenses are okay. Their long-range artillery is okay. Their logistics are ass. Their training and maintenance are ass. Their morale is probably somewhere between okay and ass.

It's clear that Russia is still able to field some functional formations. But the level of functionality, and the total number of units being fielded, is far less than what we expected.

If Putin had a mass of well-equipped, well-trained, highly competent troops, it was probably the ones he committed to Kiev, which were thrown back and apparently destroyed.

It's amazing that in a world where it's clear that Russian military officials have successfully over-represented their actual numbers and readiness, you still insist on believing those things have been under-represented.
And yet here they are, still grinding away making marginal gains in the east and reinforcing the Kherson front. Their forces may be ass, but they've settled on tactics which they're able to execute AND they're succeeding in one of their objectives, to severely weaken Ukraine economically.



Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
That doesn't make any sense. Russians are not magic. Russia is holding out because they're throwing more and more of what we know to be limited reserves at a smaller area of operation in an attempt to hang onto very limited gains.

The only thing we don't know for sure is exactly how long Russia can sustain this level of spend, for these marginal gains. We're pretty sure it won't be long enough to exhaust western support for Ukraine. And at the moment it doesn't seem like it will soon exhaust the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting.

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is limited manpower. If they do counterattack, they probably won't have the troops to try it more than a few times. So it makes sense that they would chip away at the Russians in the meantime, waiting until they've built up enough of an advantage, and deteriorated the enemy forces sufficiently, to initiate a decisive battle in their favor.
IMO Russia can keep plodding on with such high rates of losses because their tactics are so unsophisticated. Western units rely on specialists, intelligence and mobility. A few losses in key areas can significantly degrade their capability. OTOH if your approach is to simply pound your opponent with low-accuracy artillery and then make tiny advances once the city/town/village has been reduced to rubble then you can do this with a comparatively small number of relatively unskilled troops.


Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think Russia has already passed the point where it will be ready for another go in a few years. Decades, maybe. If they carry out some major reforms, and also somehow rev up their economy.

The army that broke out in the east and also advanced on Kiev doesn't exist anymore. The army that's still fighting in the east is a lot weaker than we expected back in February.

For someone who supposedly wants the west to stay committed, you sure seem quick to discard "this is working, let's keep doing it" in favor of "this isn't working, let's rethink".

I think what we're doing is working. I think the Russian military is much weaker than we believed a year ago. I think it's probably hollowing itself out pretty quick, to keep up a strong front in the East. How strong that front actually is, and how fragile it will prove to be, if and when Ukraine counterattacks, remains to be seen.
Russia is still getting billions of dollars a week from commodity sales and as they move away from selling to the West to selling to Asia, they secure that income. You're absolutely right that they're not the "near peer" force we believed them to be a year ago but they've also demonstrated that they can still damage a country if they choose to do so. Even if Ukraine is able to recover the land taken by Russia, the costs of rebuilding will cripple the Ukrainian economy, meanwhile Russia can start, with Chinese, Iranian and Indian support, to rebuild.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's already clear it's not strong enough to make any kind of major push, or drive the Ukrainians substantially back. I think the Secret Formations you fear, that will show up Real Soon Now to enable a Russian push, don't exist. Quite the opposite: I think the troops being sent to shore up the eastern front are going to be progressively weaker and weaker. I think Ukraine's biggest concern right now is not whether they could crush the Russians around Kherson, but whether they can do it with enough reserves to avoid a pyrrhic victory and leave themselves open to any half-assed invasion that might seek to take advantage. And I think that every week that passes, with the Russians trying to keep up appearances, and the Ukrainians getting stronger and stronger, tips the balance further in Ukraines favor.
I really, really hope you're right. When I saw the Russian withdrawal from around Kyiv I thought that Russia was significantly, perhaps fatally, weakened and that it would be months until they could re-field those units. Instead they managed to get them back into the meat grinder in a couple of weeks.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 02:05 AM   #2785
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Thank you for the comprehensive response. I'll try to keep this to a manageable length.



The thing is that we've been told for a considerable time now that they're expending forces at a and that it cannot be sustained - and yet here we are, nearly six months in and it seems that it can be sustained.




What if that never happens, or more accurately what happens if this takes years. Russia is amply financed thanks to their commodities sales and there seems to be no shortage of equipment. The type of war they've settled on doesn't require anything leading edge, their vast reserves of Soviet-era hardware is adequate for the job



And yet here they are, still grinding away making marginal gains in the east and reinforcing the Kherson front. Their forces may be ass, but they've settled on tactics which they're able to execute AND they're succeeding in one of their objectives, to severely weaken Ukraine economically.





IMO Russia can keep plodding on with such high rates of losses because their tactics are so unsophisticated. Western units rely on specialists, intelligence and mobility. A few losses in key areas can significantly degrade their capability. OTOH if your approach is to simply pound your opponent with low-accuracy artillery and then make tiny advances once the city/town/village has been reduced to rubble then you can do this with a comparatively small number of relatively unskilled troops.




Russia is still getting billions of dollars a week from commodity sales and as they move away from selling to the West to selling to Asia, they secure that income. You're absolutely right that they're not the "near peer" force we believed them to be a year ago but they've also demonstrated that they can still damage a country if they choose to do so. Even if Ukraine is able to recover the land taken by Russia, the costs of rebuilding will cripple the Ukrainian economy, meanwhile Russia can start, with Chinese, Iranian and Indian support, to rebuild.
The problem with all of this is that you are theorising after the fact. For example, there was much speculation in the West before this whole thing began about what Putin's objectives were.

I really doubt that "weakening Ukraine economically" was in his list. It probably contained things like "install puppet government" or "annex Ukraine" or (more credibly) "establish land bridge to Crimea". When he invaded and went straight for Kyiv, it seemed like "install puppet government" was top of the list. They have failed in their initial objectives and now they are scrabbling for new ones to make it seem like they won.

As for their selling billions of dollars of commodities. Well they were doing that before the sanctions and even then their economy was only about the size of that of Texas. It's definitely smaller than that now. They may have the help of China to rebuild (or they may not) but Ukraine will have the help of the EU, the UK and the USA. Also, Ukraine will not be subject to crippling sanctions. Of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine will recover faster.
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I really, really hope you're right. When I saw the Russian withdrawal from around Kyiv I thought that Russia was significantly, perhaps fatally, weakened and that it would be months until they could re-field those units. Instead they managed to get them back into the meat grinder in a couple of weeks.
Well, they fielded some units with the same names and some of the same personnel. The fact that they've simply fed these "elite" units into the meat grinder is somewhat telling.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 02:12 AM   #2786
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
The problem with all of this is that you are theorising after the fact. For example, there was much speculation in the West before this whole thing began about what Putin's objectives were.

I really doubt that "weakening Ukraine economically" was in his list. It probably contained things like "install puppet government" or "annex Ukraine" or (more credibly) "establish land bridge to Crimea". When he invaded and went straight for Kyiv, it seemed like "install puppet government" was top of the list. They have failed in their initial objectives and now they are scrabbling for new ones to make it seem like they won.

As for their selling billions of dollars of commodities. Well they were doing that before the sanctions and even then their economy was only about the size of that of Texas. It's definitely smaller than that now. They may have the help of China to rebuild (or they may not) but Ukraine will have the help of the EU, the UK and the USA. Also, Ukraine will not be subject to crippling sanctions. Of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine will recover faster.
Will the EU, UK and USA be willing to plough in $100bn-$200bn a year for the next 5, 10, 15 years while Ukraine rebuilds at the same time that UK and EU economies are suffering because of Russia's withdrawal of oil and gas supplies ?

Will US politicians be happy to provide this much money when people are clamouring for tax cuts and for money to be spent on Americans ?

Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Well, they fielded some units with the same names and some of the same personnel. The fact that they've simply fed these "elite" units into the meat grinder is somewhat telling.
Maybe it is, but those units are still slowly taking ground in the East.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 06:20 AM   #2787
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Will the EU, UK and USA be willing to plough in $100bn-$200bn a year for the next 5, 10, 15 years while Ukraine rebuilds at the same time that UK and EU economies are suffering because of Russia's withdrawal of oil and gas supplies ?

Will US politicians be happy to provide this much money when people are clamouring for tax cuts and for money to be spent on Americans ?



Maybe it is, but those units are still slowly taking ground in the East.
There is no need to rebuild. The French helping out the colonists wasn't about advancing freedom, but advancing national interest. Almost all foreign aid is serving national interest, and it is on a nation itself to ultimately secure it's defense, sometimes independently.

At some point, aiding Ukraine will no longer serve Western interest, and they may lose, and that's fine.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 06:39 AM   #2788
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
As for their selling billions of dollars of commodities. Well they were doing that before the sanctions and even then their economy was only about the size of that of Texas. It's definitely smaller than that now. They may have the help of China to rebuild (or they may not)
They won't. China will continue to buy stuff from them, but it's in no position to give them significant aid per se. The debt crisis that's exploding in slow motion in China will preclude anything of the sort.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 07:38 AM   #2789
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Will the EU, UK and USA be willing to plough in $100bn-$200bn a year for the next 5, 10, 15 years while Ukraine rebuilds at the same time that UK and EU economies are suffering because of Russia's withdrawal of oil and gas supplies ?

Will US politicians be happy to provide this much money when people are clamouring for tax cuts and for money to be spent on Americans ?



Maybe it is, but those units are still slowly taking ground in the East.

Current best estimate to rebuild Ukraine is US$500 billion to one trillion.

About US$300 billion will come from frozen Russian assets. More will come from the EU and the non-EU G7. Additional money could be raised by requiring Russia to pay a portion of its energy revenue into a Ukraine reconstruction fund in return for being allowed to resume selling oil and gas to the West, as Iraq was required to do for Kuwait.

As for "slowly taking ground in the East," as we have discussed, continuing to slowly advance does not indicate that the advance is sustainable, and the Russians clearly can't sustain what they're doing in the long run.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 07:44 AM   #2790
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Further to what jlhas been said. There's a huge inertia in a war involving hundreds of thousands of combatants on both sides. Especially with the Ukrainian strategy of "corrosion" which is not very flashy or quick, not wiping out or capturing scores of BTGs, but degrading their ability to fight effectively through lots of different approaches.

It is a gradual degredation though.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 07:52 AM   #2791
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
As for "slowly taking ground in the East," as we have discussed, continuing to slowly advance does not indicate that the advance is sustainable, and the Russians clearly can't sustain what they're doing in the long run.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the long run.

Decades ? Definitely not.

Could they keep it up for a year or two ? Well they certainly have a huge stockpile of low accuracy ammunition and artillery.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 08:22 AM   #2792
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
They won't. China will continue to buy stuff from them, but it's in no position to give them significant aid per se. The debt crisis that's exploding in slow motion in China will preclude anything of the sort.
Moreover, whatever "aid" China gives them, it will be of a form which leads to China owning significant chunks of Russia. And they have the muscle to assert their ownership, should Russia call it into question.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 09:53 AM   #2793
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the long run.

Decades ? Definitely not.

Could they keep it up for a year or two ? Well they certainly have a huge stockpile of low accuracy ammunition and artillery.

How large (and how reliable) Russia's stockpile of artillery ammunition is is questionable, but even taking your statement at face value, the fact that Russian ammunition depots keep blowing up tends to drastically reduce that stockpile's utility.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 10:22 AM   #2794
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
How large (and how reliable) Russia's stockpile of artillery ammunition is is questionable, but even taking your statement at face value, the fact that Russian ammunition depots keep blowing up tends to drastically reduce that stockpile's utility.
Also the Russians seem to rely a lot on trains to move ordnance and UAF are doing a lot of damage to the rail network as part of the "corrosion" strategy. As a US General said some years back "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics".
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Old 3rd August 2022, 11:39 AM   #2795
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Also the Russians seem to rely a lot on trains to move ordnance and UAF are doing a lot of damage to the rail network as part of the "corrosion" strategy. As a US General said some years back "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics".
Speaking of trains...

Ukraine update: Russia loses two supply trains in a day ... but only one to Ukrainian attack


Southern axis, specifically.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 11:47 AM   #2796
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To paraphrase Lady Bracknell, to lose one supply train is unfortunate, to lose two suggests carelessness....
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Old 3rd August 2022, 12:14 PM   #2797
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
To paraphrase Lady Bracknell, to lose one supply train is unfortunate, to lose two suggests carelessness....
If it was indeed due to being overzealous in lighting a smokescreen to hide the ammunition train from visible reconnaissance and that set off the ammunition, then yes that is pretty careless. Or a way to minimise time being vulnerable to attack and rock bottom morale.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 12:16 PM   #2798
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Also the Russians seem to rely a lot on trains to move ordnance and UAF are doing a lot of damage to the rail network as part of the "corrosion" strategy. As a US General said some years back "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics".
And more echoes of history, 79 years ago.

The railways are single track.

It's a good job the Russians seem to have learned nothing from the Great Patriotic War, despite it seeming to be larger in nationalist culture than the Battle of Britain is in UK nationalist culture.
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Old 3rd August 2022, 01:00 PM   #2799
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
If it was indeed due to being overzealous in lighting a smokescreen to hide the ammunition train from visible reconnaissance and that set off the ammunition, then yes that is pretty careless. Or a way to minimise time being vulnerable to attack and rock bottom morale.
There is always the poor handling by conscripts of munitions, compounded in this case by the poor storage conditions of them(I have seen pictures supposedly of russian artillery shells in crates sitting outside with some of the crates damaged from the enviroment). The Port Chicago disaster in WWII killed 300 from poor handling conditions
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Old 3rd August 2022, 02:47 PM   #2800
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
If it was indeed due to being overzealous in lighting a smokescreen to hide the ammunition train from visible reconnaissance and that set off the ammunition, then yes that is pretty careless. Or a way to minimise time being vulnerable to attack and rock bottom morale.
Talking of trains carrying ammo blowing up

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ult_of_himars/

That's a big one
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