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Tags Russia-Ukraine relations , Russia-Ukraine war , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin , Volodymyr Zelenskiy

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Old 5th March 2022, 08:50 AM   #41
dudalb
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Indeed.

An oil embargo probably would be mostly symbolic, but the rest.

And I can easily imagine, say Coca Cola (to take one company that said it will continue to trade in Russia) could lose more money from a boycott of its brands than they'd get from a single country in economic meltdown.
Coca Cola In Russia...remember a BIlly Wilder movie with James Cagney called 'One Two Three".
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Old 5th March 2022, 08:50 AM   #42
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Or Melania

Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Yup. No sarcasm intended.
And when Vlad calls her Ivanka, he's just being cute.
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Old 5th March 2022, 08:53 AM   #43
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Quote:
As someone said about Commuism,, "Beautiful Theory, Wrong Species".
My father described himself as a socialist for most of his life. When he was about 70, he said to me, "I finally realized that if socialism could possibly work, there would be no need for socialism."
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Old 5th March 2022, 08:57 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Coca Cola In Russia...remember a BIlly Wilder movie with James Cagney called 'One Two Three".
Thanks. I'd been trying to remember what film that was. Literally the only fragment I recall is the gag right at the end when Cagney uses a Coca Cola vending machine and it gives him a bottle of Pepsi, and I couldn't quite be sure I hadn't invented the memory.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:06 AM   #45
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An oil embargo would be the one sanction that would be far worse for the West than for Russia.
Russia would be able to sell less, but at a much higher price, offsetting any losses.
In the meantime, Europe would suffer.

Sanctions on oil would just be for the benefit of US Fracking, because Europe would have to import what is usually too low quality for them.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:15 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
An oil embargo would be the one sanction that would be far worse for the West than for Russia.
Russia would be able to sell less, but at a much higher price, offsetting any losses.
In the meantime, Europe would suffer.

Sanctions on oil would just be for the benefit of US Fracking, because Europe would have to import what is usually too low quality for them.
This is one area I agree with posters here. What more can be done? Full economic war (build in some conditions/off ramps so that you're not punishing the Russian people forever - and give Putin an out, like a nice retirement on some tropical island). This whole idea of "oh, energy costs might rise," is one area the West should shoulder some pain. That's what we can do, if you're asking.
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Last edited by Jimbo07; 5th March 2022 at 09:17 AM.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:18 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
An oil embargo would be the one sanction that would be far worse for the West than for Russia.
Russia would be able to sell less, but at a much higher price, offsetting any losses.
In the meantime, Europe would suffer.

Sanctions on oil would just be for the benefit of US Fracking, because Europe would have to import what is usually too low quality for them.
Huh? Shell just bought a tanker of Russian oil at a RECORD discount.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:23 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
... the two independent republics of Donbass.
If Vladamir Putin, Kyrgyzstan, and Michael H say so, it must be true.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:28 AM   #49
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Latest rant from Putin:
Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Saturday that world leaders who continue to enforce wide-ranging, extensive sanctions on Russia are risking “the future of Ukrainian statehood.”

At a meeting in Moscow, Putin claimed that the sanctions leveled by the United States and the international community in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amount to “a means of fighting against Russia.”

“These sanctions that are being imposed are like the declaration of war,” he said.

He then suggested that pushback from Ukrainian and world leaders could result in an uncertain future for Ukraine.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:30 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
This is one area I agree with posters here. What more can be done? Full economic war (build in some conditions/off ramps so that you're not punishing the Russian people forever). This whole idea of "oh, energy costs might rise," is one area the West should shoulder some pain. That's what we can do, if you're asking.
But the point isn't to raise energy costs, it's to hurt Russia.
And that has already happened with Nordstream 2 closed.
More Sanctions would have vastly diminishing returns but vastly increased negative consequences for the West.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:35 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
But the point isn't to raise energy costs, it's to hurt Russia.
And that has already happened with Nordstream 2 closed.
More Sanctions would have vastly diminishing returns but vastly increased negative consequences for the West.
Maybe the US will start rethinking KXL, Line 5, etc.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:36 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
CocaCola has announced it is pulling it's products from Russia.
Yay!
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:39 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Latest rant from Putin:
Is it me or does that reek of desperation?
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:44 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Is it me or does that reek of desperation?
You can never tell with a madman..which more and more I think we are dealing with.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:45 AM   #55
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And if this goes on, sooner or later there is going to be a unintentoinal clash between Nato and Russia.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:45 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Huh? Shell just bought a tanker of Russian oil at a RECORD discount.
I would be fine with demanding a huge discount on Russian oil as a sanction measure.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:47 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Huh? Shell just bought a tanker of Russian oil at a RECORD discount.
Who did they buy it from, Russia or the tanker company? Because the latter would be awesome.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:54 AM   #58
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Quote:
Putin explains why Ukraine attack went beyond Donbass
The Russian leader claims Moscow wanted to prevent the West from helping “nationalists”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that he chose to attack Ukraine beyond the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) to prevent the West from “endlessly” supplying “nationalists and radicals” with various resources, such as weapons and money. He added that the Russian forces were “practically done” destroying Ukrainian military sites, such as air defenses and weapons depots.
(https://www.rt.com/russia/551314-put...kraine-tactic/ or rt.com/russia/551314-putin-explains-ukraine-tactic/).

So, there is perhaps some hope for a quick end for this war, and a withdrawal of Russian forces (?).

Then Putin gives an interesting argument:
Quote:
“They began to say more actively that they will admit [Ukraine] to NATO. What will this lead to? All other members of the alliance must back Ukraine in the case of a military conflict,” Putin said. “They will [attack] Crimea, and we will be forced to go to war with NATO. Do you understand the consequences?” The president stated that he wanted Ukraine to become a neutral country.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:55 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Yay!
What's the source of the Coca Cola rumor? I'm only seeing one dubious report online and no confirmation from the majors.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:56 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Coca Cola In Russia...remember a BIlly Wilder movie with James Cagney called 'One Two Three".
“Don’t forget the empties!”
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:58 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post

Ukraine postponed the evacuation, with civilians in Mariupol being told of the news via loudspeaker

Russia's defence ministry said civilians had not used the escape routes - and accused Ukrainian authorities of preventing people from leaving
It says Ukrainian "nationalists" prevented civilians from leaving the the cities, according to Russia's Ria news agency.
The ministry said that Russian forces came under fire after it had set up humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave the city.
Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Yes, I thought the Russians actually intended a ceasefire as it helps them. Time to sort out their resupply and for Ukrainian civilians to evacuate so they don't have to worry so much about harming non-combatants. (I'm not suggesting Putin gives a damn about that, but I presume ordinary Russian soldiers doing the actual fighting have no wish to kill Ukrainian civilians.)

From the very first day of this Russia has been accusing Azov of holding the civilian population of Mariupol hostage. They put out a crap ton of disinformation and propaganda to that effect, this has been echoed ad infinitum by their willing sycophants (along with the narrative of Ukraine holding Indian students hostage in Kharkiv, another narrative that Russia is still pushing very, very hard on.)

With Azov, Russian disinfo has been specifically targeting the Greek community - there is a large Greek community in Mariupol, dating from way, way back (like, think Ottoman Empire before the Crimean war). Lots of claims that Azov has been targeting them.

Russia has not and NEVER will allow a cease fire around Mariupol because that would break the hostage narrative.

1: If civilians can leave but don't, that breaks the narrative. Azov is one of four or five Ukrainian military formations in that pocket (Azov really is just a tiny, tiny part of the overall Ukrainian military structure. That's no defense of Azov, but they're not representative of the rest of the Ukrainian military in the least way). Some civilians may choose to stay to support the troops or fight with them or for whatever reason. Even if they find Azov distasteful.

2: If the civilians do leave, that ALSO breaks the Azov/hostage narrative. If Azov lets them leave, they obviously were not hostages.

3: So the obvious thing to do is to NEVER ever have a cease fire, but to consistently blame that on Azov.

Russia also claims that Azov has been fighting with the regular Ukrainian troops in Mariupol. There's no evidence of that happening at all.

Mariupol is a thing to watch. It was expected (by Russia) to fall within about 12 hours of the initial invasion. One of our esteemed forum members described it as a just a bump in the road along Russia's two day walk to the sea to establish the land bridge.

Mariupol features very, very strongly in the Russian propaganda narrative. They barely mention Kyiv at all any more. Not much mention of Kharkiv. Mariupol is the place for Russian propagandists to focus on.

Last edited by crescent; 5th March 2022 at 10:00 AM.
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:59 AM   #62
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Things are escalating. The US Sate department has ordered US citizens to leave Russia immediately.

Quote:
US urges US citizens living or traveling in Russia to 'depart immediately'
The US government has warned American citizens living or traveling in Russia to “depart immediately”.

In new guidelines, published today, the US state department also warned that “some crediot and debit cards may be declined” when purchasing flights due to sanctions, that cash is in short supply and that foreigners may face “potential harassment”, reports BuzzFeed News correspondent Christopher Miller.
GUARDIAN
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Old 5th March 2022, 09:59 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
(https://www.rt.com/russia/551314-put...kraine-tactic/ or rt.com/russia/551314-putin-explains-ukraine-tactic/).

So, there is perhaps some hope for a quick end for this war, and a withdrawal of Russian forces (?).

Then Putin gives an interesting argument:
Vladimir said?

This is the same guy who said (many times) that it was totally hysterical to suggest the Russia might invade. If you're that gullible, I might have a bridge to sell you.

ETA: And again - NATO had been perfectly clear that Ukraine could not be admitted into NATO until the status of Crimea was resolved. NATO was never ever going to admit Ukraine into NATO and then fix its border issues and NATO was always overtly crystal clear about that. Fix borders first, then join NATO. Putin knew that. He's just telling flat out lies again.

Last edited by crescent; 5th March 2022 at 10:03 AM.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:01 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
“Don’t forget the empties!”

"These are Lousy Cuban Cigars"
"We gave them Lousy Missiles".
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:01 AM   #65
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Israel's Prime Minister has been to Moscow:

Quote:
The Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today to discuss the Ukraine crisis, Reuters reports.

Israel has previously offered to mediate in the conflict, but officials played down expectations of a breakthrough.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:01 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Things are escalating. The US Sate department has ordered US citizens to leave Russia immediately.

GUARDIAN
Anybody with any brains shold get out of Russia.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:04 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
What's the source of the Coca Cola rumor? I'm only seeing one dubious report online and no confirmation from the majors.
The only citation I can find is a Twitter account called Occupy Democrats:

Quote:
ead
See new Tweets
Conversation
Occupy Democrats
@OccupyDemocrats
BREAKING NEWS: Coca-Cola folds to public pressure, announces that it is suspending all sales in Russia over Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. RT IF YOU THINK THAT THIS IS GREAT NEWS!
Twitter

'13h ago'
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:06 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
"These are Lousy Cuban Cigars"
"We gave them Lousy Missiles".
“Is everyone corrupt?!”
“I don’t know everyone.”
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:08 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
“Is everyone corrupt?!”
“I don’t know everyone.”
And I love the bit with the Grapefruit.....
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:12 AM   #70
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KIev,Kharkov, Maruipol, ....a lot of names in the news that are familair to those who have read a lot about the Eastern Front In World War 2.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:14 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Who did they buy it from, Russia or the tanker company? Because the latter would be awesome.
They bought it from Swiss trader Trafigura.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ra-2022-03-04/
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:19 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
KIev,Kharkov, Maruipol, ....a lot of names in the news that are familair to those who have read a lot about the Eastern Front In World War 2.
Russia has presumably captured Yalta, the site of the conference that decided the postwar borders of Europe. I'm surprised their propaganda machine has not made a bigger deal of that.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:33 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Is it me or does that reek of desperation?
I think he's trying to scare us with an implied threat of nuclear war.

He knows that we won't actually go into a shooting war with him, because he has nukes, and that's the only reason. He's trying to use that to frighten us away from doing anything at all. He knows we are afraid to go to war, so he's trying to say that sanctions are really just like war.

Which means he must be afraid of the sanctions.


Oh, well. I guess we'll just have to take our chances.


(And I realized that I said, "Go to war with him". as opposed to "them" or "Russia". I think that's fairly accurate. That's sad, because like dictators before him, he can give the orders that kill thousands, and pour himself a drink of some very expensive liquor afterwards. The war is with him, but others are dying.)
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:38 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Russia has presumably captured Yalta, the site of the conference that decided the postwar borders of Europe. I'm surprised their propaganda machine has not made a bigger deal of that.
No, Yalta is in Crimea, and so belongs to Russia since 2014 (according to Russia).
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:40 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
No, Yalta is in Crimea, and so belongs to Russia since 2014 (according to Russia).
Doh! You're right.

Note to self: Get up, drink coffee, then post on forum. The order of operations is important.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:41 AM   #76
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A Russian plane that left St Petersburg and which circumvented Finland, Sweden and Norway is due to land in Washington circa 2:30pm local time. It has been authorised by the US State and its purpose is to collect twelve expelled Russian diplomats being deported as spies.

Quote:
The U.S. State Department has approved the flight of the Russian plane, according to Reuters. The flight is intended to facilitate the departure of expelled UN diplomats. The United States expelled 12 Russian UN diplomats on Tuesday because the United States said the diplomats had engaged in non-diplomatic activities.
HS
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:41 AM   #77
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I can totally see Putin ordering a squadron into a true no-fly zone, expecting them to get shot down, then claiming it's an Act of War.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:42 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Is it me or does that reek of desperation?
He looks to be losing his grip.

I posted this a bit earlier - but check out this around 30 seconds in. He looks confused in his own TV statement.



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After seeing this, I've downgraded my estimates of his chance of survival to about 70%
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:52 AM   #79
Michel H
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Vladimir said?

This is the same guy who said (many times) that it was totally hysterical to suggest the Russia might invade. If you're that gullible, I might have a bridge to sell you.

ETA: And again - NATO had been perfectly clear that Ukraine could not be admitted into NATO until the status of Crimea was resolved. NATO was never ever going to admit Ukraine into NATO and then fix its border issues and NATO was always overtly crystal clear about that. Fix borders first, then join NATO. Putin knew that. He's just telling flat out lies again.
Do you have a (credible) reference for this?

The New York Times has published recently (Jan. 13, 2022) a detailed analysis on the issue of NATO membership of Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/u...o-ukraine.html, and I don't really find your disputed border argument in it.

And there may be a simple reason for this: for NATO (at least, officially), Crimea belongs to Ukraine, so there is no real controversy about this.

The article says, however:
Quote:
After annexing Crimea, Mr. Putin invaded eastern Ukraine and gave military aid to a separatist insurgency there. He did something similar in Georgia in 2008. The message has been clear: If these two nations join NATO, the United States and European countries will have to grapple directly with ongoing Russian-fueled conflicts.

Russia could also impose other costs on Europe, such as withholding gas exports. And Germany and many other NATO nations prefer to choose their battles with Russia, given its proximity and Mr. Putin’s aggressive nature. They know he and other Russian officials are obsessed with Ukraine.
So, I would say that it seems unlikely that Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO soon, but not really impossible.
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Old 5th March 2022, 10:57 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I can totally see Putin ordering a squadron into a true no-fly zone, expecting them to get shot down, then claiming it's an Act of War.
In Syria, Russia baited Turkey this way.

Fly the jet towards Turkish airspace. Begin a turn before crossing the border so the jet curves in and right back out of Turkish airspace. Do that from time to time as a means to attack camps along the border from the "wrong" side.

The thing that made it work well was that Turkey had to wait until the Russian airplane was in Turkish airspace before firing the missile - but the Russian airplane was only briefly in Turkish airspace - the missile would not hit it until after it had crossed back over the border into Syria.

Airplane gets hit in Syrian airspace, goes down in Syria. Russia denies that the airplanes were ever in Turkish airspace and claims the Turks were the ones being provocative.

I could totally see them doing a similar thing here, looping in and out of a no fly zone to make a claim that NATO is enforcing the zone beyond the specified boundaries.
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