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Tags telepathy , telepathy test

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Old 23rd October 2013, 10:39 AM   #41
superfreddy
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We all know the answer is 3. This forum is full of telepaths

3, it is 3, remember 3, write down 3

Ashles and Phunk already guessed right. Don't be on the wrong side of history. Jump on the 3 bandwagon. 3, it is 3. Go 3
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Old 23rd October 2013, 10:41 AM   #42
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I forgot, did i say 3 already? 3
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Old 23rd October 2013, 10:42 AM   #43
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So how many people will need to be right for their guesses to be better than by chance alone? I'm not that great with statistics so I don't know how to work that one out but I assume it's reasonably high.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 10:56 AM   #44
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4a4a8a7580d4b195da065aefb5d40671

I don't know what the point of the XX is if im sending an encrypted response...
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Old 23rd October 2013, 11:10 AM   #45
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PM me with your actual guess/response/whatever, stanfr.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 11:43 AM   #46
Michel H
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Originally Posted by stanfr View Post
4a4a8a7580d4b195da065aefb5d40671

I don't know what the point of the XX is if im sending an encrypted response...
stanfr, I cannot rate the credibility of your answer if all you give me is a hash.
The credibility analysis is an important part of my method (see my previous threads). Also, please send your full, unencrypted answer to Agatha.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 11:48 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
It's not much use coming up with these various methods to create an illusion of integrity when all you're going to do is use that idiotic "credibility scale" to declare invalid anyone's guesses that you don't like.

Why would we even be bothered with the possibility of you tampering with your chosen number when we already consider it most likely that there will be an even spread between all four numbers anyway?

There's no need for you to resort to subterfuge when it's just as easy and far more effective for you to blatantly reject all the misses and just count the hits.

That is why he is trying a different method, one where he cannot see our answer before he does his analysis. That is the whole point of the "xx" in our responses.

Granted, this is still not a true scientific test, but it is far better than what he was doing earlier, and I do encourage people to post answers, if for no other reason than he can see the difference between his analysis when he knows whether or not we guessed correctly, and when he cannot. I "predict" that his credibility ratings will no longer correlate with correctness, which in and of itself will demonstrate to Michel *why* his previous method was baloney.

Well, sure there are other reasons too, but ... baby steps!
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Old 23rd October 2013, 11:51 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
I'm getting equally strong impressions of "2" and "4" so should I submit something like xx,xx or should I split it into separate posts?

Also, when will my hash be delivered?
The fact you're getting impressions of two of my four valid numbers in this test is quite interesting, Akhenaten. However, in the method I am currently using, partial hits are completely ignored. So, if you want to answer validly in this test, you will have to make a choice: either "2", or "4", but not 50% of "2" and 50% of "4".

After you've made your decision, you should post a sentence like this (for exemple):
"I was not sure, but my final choice is xx."
and send your actual (with no "xx"), full answer to Agatha.

Ideally, you should also post a MD5 hash of a complicated sentence containing your number, so that this number is fixed for ever (can no longer be changed), and you cannot cheat by changing your number after I have posted my target number. You will have to have this hash computed for you, for exemple on either of these websites:
http://www.md5hashgenerator.com/
http://www.miraclesalad.com/webtools/md5.php .

If you have some difficulties with these hashes, let me know, and I'll try to help (or other members maybe).
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Old 23rd October 2013, 01:12 PM   #49
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After reading these threads, I still don't understand why this test uses just four numbers and a quality assessment of the responses. Surely it would be easier, and more convincing, to write down a number from a very large set (e.g. from 1-100000000000). Post the hash, and let people post whatever number comes to them.

If you do have to use the test as it is, why not find willing participants, explain the test to them, and then start the test. Simply posting a thread just seems to confuse the issue with so many people talking and joking about it. There isn't even a criteria for which answers will be accepted as legitimate.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 01:50 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by TheSapient
After reading these threads, I still don't understand why this test uses just four numbers and a quality assessment of the responses. Surely it would be easier, and more convincing, to write down a number from a very large set (e.g. from 1-100000000000). Post the hash, and let people post whatever number comes to them.
Exactly my thoughts - there's a 25% chance (1 in 4) of guessing the number anyway. I'd advise the OP (Michel) to use a very large spread of numbers as you suggested to reduce the chances of a correct guess by chance alone.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 02:38 PM   #51
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Michel has taken note of some of our previous criticisms, and this blinding of the responses is the result. His assessment of the responses for 'credibility' is something unscientific but he seems to be wedded to it, and when it was pointed out that he may (consciously or unconsciously) downgrading incorrect answers and upgrading correct ones, this protocol was designed.

It will not prove telepathy, and it's not intended to be scientific. In the event that Michel's number is correctly identified by more people than expected by chance, perhaps Michel will consider trying again with a greater spread of numbers.

My thought is that sometimes it's better to lead someone out of an irrational mindset step by tiny step rather than try to push them too fast.

I've had three PMs so far, please do send me any more responses.

Michel, how many responses do you hope to get before you start assessing the replies?
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Old 23rd October 2013, 02:51 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
... In the event that Michel's number is correctly identified by more people than expected by chance, perhaps Michel will consider trying again with a greater spread of numbers.
...
Yes, of course, why not? The number four in "four possibilities of choice" is not sacred.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 03:41 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
...
Michel, how many responses do you hope to get before you start assessing the replies?
Well, I can already reflect about how credible {the valid answers I have received so far} are now (remember, in this protocol, I normally see immediately the answers with "xx"). If you have stanfr's answer (or any answer other than Hokulele's and Ladewig's ones), please post it now, with the number replaced by "xx".

When should I stop this test (by giving the "correct" number)? I don't know, I am afraid this protocol may seem too complicated for many people, I am not getting many valid answers, some good advice is always welcome (but perhaps less than good answers ). Perhaps five or six valid answers would be a good number, but this is maybe somewhat unrealistic, I don't know. Perhaps some here might be concerned that one of their cherished "skeptical dogmas" might be badly damaged if they answer too well...And it's not indispensible to be an incredible genius to deliberately answer badly (or not answer at all)...
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Old 23rd October 2013, 03:52 PM   #54
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3, Lets keep the trend going

Also invalid test is still invalid
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:01 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
3, Lets keep the trend going

Also invalid test is still invalid
Also invalid answer is still invalid
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:06 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
That is why he is trying a different method, one where he cannot see our answer before he does his analysis. That is the whole point of the "xx" in our responses.

Granted, this is still not a true scientific test, but it is far better than what he was doing earlier, and I do encourage people to post answers, if for no other reason than he can see the difference between his analysis when he knows whether or not we guessed correctly, and when he cannot. I "predict" that his credibility ratings will no longer correlate with correctness, which in and of itself will demonstrate to Michel *why* his previous method was baloney.

Well, sure there are other reasons too, but ... baby steps!


Thanks for that. I seem to have missed the significance of the "xx" thing in amongst all the gobbledygook.

I will indeed send in a number, but I won't be stuffing around with that hash nonsense.

Cheers, Leilani.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:06 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Also invalid answer is still invalid
why is it invalid?

Right you only accept certain answers, gotcha
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:08 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Perhaps some here might be concerned that one of their cherished "skeptical dogmas" might be badly damaged if they answer too well...And it's not indispensible to be an incredible genius to deliberately answer badly (or not answer at all)...


"Deliberately answer badly"?

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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:13 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
"Deliberately answer badly"?

I earnestly picked 3, I remarked the test was invalid because I find the methodology beyond flawed, My answer was thrown out.

I wonder if he'll make a new test after everyone keeps picking 3.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:23 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
I wonder if he'll make a new test after everyone keeps picking 3.


Keep doing the same thing and hoping for a different result?

Shirley nobody would do such a thing.

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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:24 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
Keep doing the same thing and hoping for a different result?

Shirley nobody would do such a thing.

3!

and don't call me shirley

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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:25 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
why is it invalid?

Right you only accept certain answers, gotcha
Because, with the protocol used in this test, you may not post the "guessed" number in your first post. You should have posted:

xx, Lets keep the trend going

Also invalid test is still invalid

instead of:
Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
3, Lets keep the trend going

Also invalid test is still invalid
,
and sent your full answer to Agatha.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 04:42 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
And it's not indispensible to be an incredible genius to deliberately answer badly (or not answer at all)...
So anybody who gives the correct answer is correct, and anybody who answers incorrectly is deliberately doing it just to trick you into thinking you are not telepathic?

Got it!

If you are so certain that we are all getting the correct answer, you don't have to do it by poll. You are a true believer, and are convinced that 75% of the forum are deliberately lying to you. So a poll, where 75% of the responses lie does not help you at all.

Norm
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Old 23rd October 2013, 05:15 PM   #64
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I think you picked the wrong number Michel H, because I am getting a strong impression that it is a suffusion of yellow.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 06:49 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Turgor View Post
I think you picked the wrong number Michel H, because I am getting a strong impression that it is a suffusion of yellow.
Very good, Turgor, am I supposed to laugh?
Your post is still not an answer to my test.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 08:01 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Very good, Turgor, am I supposed to laugh?
Your post is still not an answer to my test.


That's a bit cruel and dismissive.

How do you know poor Turgor doesn't have synesthesia?
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Old 23rd October 2013, 08:33 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I don't know, I am afraid this protocol may seem too complicated for many people, .
Actually, I am still a bit confused by the protocol. If I sent a single, unambiguous number to Agatha, what is gained by the hash ? If I tried to change my response, wouldn't Agatha be able to point out that I was violating the rules?
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Old 23rd October 2013, 08:36 PM   #68
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Also, Michel H., if you don't mind answering a few questions while we wait for more responses,

Does everyone have this power and you are merely better than most?

Or are there very few people able to transmit information and you are one of them?

Or are you the only known example of someone having this power?

Or something else?
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Old 23rd October 2013, 09:44 PM   #69
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The last time I partcipated in this guessing game I was accused of being in a mental institution and therefore my response was invalid.

I'm now in a high-sided elastic banjo with an eskimo parasol, so rest assured that my response is both fluffy and perky.

The number I'm seeing is XX.
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Old 23rd October 2013, 11:43 PM   #70
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I do not know. And I know I do not know because I do not know.
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Old 24th October 2013, 04:18 AM   #71
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Michel if I was you I'd stop the test and use a larger spread of numbers (say from -infinity to +infinity) in order to remove the participants guessing correctly through chance alone. As it stands, we can expect 25% of people to guess correctly the number so I don't see what it proves other than that with favourable odds people are going to come up trumps.
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Old 24th October 2013, 04:44 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Kid Eager View Post
The last time I partcipated in this guessing game I was accused of being in a mental institution and therefore my response was invalid.

I'm now in a high-sided elastic banjo with an eskimo parasol, so rest assured that my response is both fluffy and perky.

The number I'm seeing is XX.


You are so invalidated.

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Old 24th October 2013, 04:52 AM   #73
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This thread is a scam. Any schoolkid knows nothing can be learned from this whether 70% say 3 or 25.6% say 3. You cant prove telepathy from chance. With infinite number pick if just ONE person guesses correct number, than you test that one person again and again...duh. So here`s the deal. The scam is this. After he puts all number replies in a computer, a random generator will come up with some posters credit card number. Lol!
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Old 24th October 2013, 05:02 AM   #74
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This thread is a scam. Any schoolkid knows nothing can be learned from this whether 70% say 3 or 25.6% say 3. You cant prove its only telepathy from only 4 choices, duh. What if he DID choose 3, and a bunvh of people here are giving reasons its likely 3, so they all jump on the 3 bandwagon? But with say an infinite numbers pick... if just ONE person guesses the correct number, then you test that one person again and again...duh. So here`s the deal. The scam is this. After he puts all number replies in a computer, a random generator will come up with some posters credit card number. Lol!
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Old 24th October 2013, 09:12 AM   #75
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So if your objective is to try to prove or disprove telepathy, this approach isn't going to do anything for you. As has been mentioned a couple of times: 4 choices is too few, a single round is too little, and even if you get everyone on the board to respond, there's too broad a margin for natural randomness. Statistically speaking, none of your results are going to be valid.

If, however, your objective is to design a valid test with which to find evidence of telepathy, using the interwebs, then you might get a good discussion. I can make a suggestion.

Don't use numbers, letters, or cards. Humans aren't very good at being random, and IIRC there has been a fair bit of research showing that we have a tendency to choose numbers in a non-random fashion, just because we happen to like certain numbers for no good reason. Similarly, we tend to choose either very commonly used letters (rstlne, compliments of Wheel of Fortune ) or very rarely used letters (zqj) so that the in-between letters are very underrepresented. With cards it's similar - we have a tendency to choose face cards and low cards. So all of those schemas are bad juju for your test, because you won't get a uniform distribution of guesses.

Don't use a single guess. The reason these things have distributions is that randomness exists. There will be absolutely no reasonable way for you to distinguish between coincidence and telepathy. There's no way for you to determine whether my answer, for example, is right because I'm telepathic or because I just got lucky.

So... If you were doing this in person, you could repeat the process with slips of paper, many times, and maybe get a test that is statistically valid. Using the interwebs, there's too much opportunity for cheating. Even if you're a completely honest person, and you absolutely never cheat... the fact that there is opportunity for it to happen means that your results aren't valid.

So... If I were bored enough to design a test that is limited to an interwebs discussion forum... Here's what I would do to get as valid and accurate a result as I could.

Select a set of colored shapes (go find images of them, from an approved hotlinking source, and provide all of us with the links for them). Stick with a simple palette of colors - I'd recommend the primaries, plus black and white, for a total of 5 possible colors. Use simple, even polygons - circle, square, triangle. All told you're looking at about 15 items.

Choose a trusted moderator for the test. You put together a sequence of 30 items. You can repeat items however many times you want, you can generate the sequence randomly, it doesn't matter. You provide your sequence to the trusted moderator before opening the thread.

Then simply ask each poster to likewise make a sequence of 30 items.

Compare position in the sequence for each item, and look at the distribution of how many each person gets correct.

In this fashion, you treat each item in the list as if it were a repeated guess. For this test, your null hypothesis is that the number of correct guesses per poster is normally distributed. If the distribution is fairly normal in shape, then there is no evidence of any sort of telepathy.

Important: If a skew exists in your distribution, that is not evidence that telepathy exists, it will only tell you that your null hypothesis fails - that there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude that telepathy does NOT exist.

You could probably design something more sophisticated if you spent a long time at it... but I would be comfortable accepting this as a reasonably valid test, provided you understand what the results actually mean, and you understand the null hypothesis.
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Old 24th October 2013, 09:21 AM   #76
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Here:
the number i came up with is ##

what's the point? what does my statement have to do with credibility?
As many have pointed out, your protocol is flawed. If I said for example:

I chose ## because that is the number most mentalists will chose.

How is this going to do anything to demonstrate 'telepathy'? All it will test is how versed you are in mentailism.
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Old 24th October 2013, 09:49 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by stanfr View Post
Here:
the number i came up with is ##

what's the point? what does my statement have to do with credibility?
As many have pointed out, your protocol is flawed. If I said for example:

I chose ## because that is the number most mentalists will chose.

How is this going to do anything to demonstrate 'telepathy'? All it will test is how versed you are in mentailism.
It won't. various people have explained why "Pick a number 1,2,3 of 4 and I will guess it, If I do, I am psychic!" is flawed, it has not worked.
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Old 24th October 2013, 09:50 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Perhaps five or six valid answers would be a good number, but this is maybe somewhat unrealistic, I don't know..
First, let me say that I mean this post to be respectful and I hope it doesn't not hurt my credibility rating.

Let me address the issue with a question.
If someone approached you and said, I have telekinetic powers such that I can influence the roll of an ordinary six-sided die. And that person said, please roll the die six times while I concentrate on the number 5. And the results were 5,2,6,4,5,3. And the claimant said "ah ha, my results are double what one would expect from chance, therefore I have proved my telekinetic power." Would you believe the claimant actually had that power? If you were not convinced, then what would you want to see before you were convinced?
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Old 24th October 2013, 12:04 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
First, let me say that I mean this post to be respectful and I hope it doesn't not hurt my credibility rating.

Let me address the issue with a question.
If someone approached you and said, I have telekinetic powers such that I can influence the roll of an ordinary six-sided die. And that person said, please roll the die six times while I concentrate on the number 5. And the results were 5,2,6,4,5,3. And the claimant said "ah ha, my results are double what one would expect from chance, therefore I have proved my telekinetic power." Would you believe the claimant actually had that power? If you were not convinced, then what would you want to see before you were convinced?
Ladewig, the result of the telekinesis experiment you mention is two successes after six trials. The binomial probability of getting two or more successes after six trials, (when the probability of success on a single trial is equal to 1/6 = 0.16666666666), is equal to p = 26.3% (see here). This is a fairly large probability, so the result of your hypothetical experiment is not statistically significant (see Exemple 1 on this webpage). Telekinesis is a (physically) almost impossible phenomenon, so you would need a much smaller p-value for your "evidence" to be considered convincing.
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Old 24th October 2013, 01:55 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Ladewig, the result of the telekinesis experiment you mention is two successes after six trials. The binomial probability of getting two or more successes after six trials, (when the probability of success on a single trial is equal to 1/6 = 0.16666666666), is equal to p = 26.3% (see here). This is a fairly large probability, so the result of your hypothetical experiment is not statistically significant (see Exemple 1 on this webpage). Telekinesis is a (physically) almost impossible phenomenon, so you would need a much smaller p-value for your "evidence" to be considered convincing.
So why did you think "Perhaps five or six valid answers would be a good number"? You obviously know statistics well enough to know that five or six answers would be completely and unmistakably meaningless in such a test as this one.
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