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Tags telepathy , telepathy test

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Old 28th October 2013, 04:11 PM   #121
Michel H
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Originally Posted by Femke View Post
Hi all,

Sorry I am so late to the party, RL got in the way of visiting the forum last week. I see Agatha is kindly acting as the blinder. I think it is best if there is only one blinder so I will just PM her my actual guess.

I think you wrote xx in your circle.

Femke
Thank you for your post and your answer, Femke. I am glad to hear from you again. I think "RL" means "Real Life" (Urban, wiki).
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Old 29th October 2013, 01:09 AM   #122
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Again.

This is a very poorly designed test, from someone with little, if any, understanding of the scientific method.

It is utterly worthless.
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Last edited by AdMan; 29th October 2013 at 01:11 AM.
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Old 29th October 2013, 01:32 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Thank you for your post and your answer, Femke. I am glad to hear from you again. I think "RL" means "Real Life" (Urban, wiki).
As far as I can see, you have three "legitimate" answers on this thread in three pages. Don't you even understand that most people treat your "scientific test" as the joke that it is?

Please devise a real test and try again.

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Old 29th October 2013, 10:22 AM   #124
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I'm gonna guess xx
not sure what im doing
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Old 2nd November 2013, 07:05 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
As far as I can see, you have three "legitimate" answers on this thread in three pages. Don't you even understand that most people treat your "scientific test" as the joke that it is?

Please devise a real test and try again.

Norm
You are right that this test is not what Michel thinks it is, but I was going to treat it as a test for his credibility rating: I'm interested in how Michel will rate the answers, independent of their being the right guess or not. And, more importantly (Michel, are you listening?), whether the resulting non-correlation to the guess might get him to re-evaluate his opinion of his credibility rating.

So, I really hope that more posters will submit a guess, because I am curious.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 12:06 PM   #126
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I hope so too, as I've only been sent five responses so far.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 12:12 PM   #127
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Thank you for your answers, it is perhaps time now to think about concluding this test.

The hash of a {complicated sentence containing my target number} I gave in post #38 above was:
4f956837e6022c4eb5a30fc05c52c7a4

The corresponding sentence was:
The number I wrote and circled for this test is 2 .... dfdvfevdf yugyug zefsdvc rextsyugf.

So, my target number was a 2.

I received seven valid answers in this test (answers with "xx" and at least a sentence, and with no (target) number explicitly given; answers with no MD5 hash will be considered still valid): those by Hokulele, Ladewig, stanfr, Kid Eager, fagin, Femke and gabeygoat. I would like now to examine them in turn, in order to assign them "credibility ratings".

1) Hokulele wrote:
Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
The first number that came to my attention is xx, so that is my choice for this test.
She seemed to appreciate the improvement in my new protocol (see e.g. her post #13 ). Actually, she was the first member who proposed a blinded protocol on this forum, and she reacted violently (I don't this word is excessive) after I presented an analysis of my second (unblinded) test. She was perhaps disappointed when she realized I had not followed (right away) her blinding suggestion. She also said, about the present test:
Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
... I "predict" that his credibility ratings will no longer correlate with correctness ...
.

Hokulele said "The first number that came to my attention is xx". So, it seems natural to turn our attention to the first post in this thread, which is my opening post:
Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Hi, I invite you to participate in a new telepathy test.

At about 20:17 on this Monday October 21 (Brussels, Belgium time), I wrote carefully one of the four numbers: "1", "2", "3", "4" on my sheet of paper, and I surrounded it with a circle. ...
The first number of this post is a 2. So, it seems Hokulele has "suggested" the correct answer to this test.
This is both good news and bad news. Good news, because it seems to suggest, in a simple way, a real telepathic effect. But bad news also, because I am facing again now the problem I was facing in my unblinded telepathy tests, namely the problem of judging objectively the credibility of an answer when you know that it is numerically correct (except that here I don't really know the number Hokulele chose; it just seems to be 2). I'll try to solve this difficulty again by just trying to ignore this uncertain knowledge, and using other reasons to determine the CR (credibility rating). Giving a high credibility to an answer because you know it's (numerically) correct (or probably correct) would of course makes the credibility analysis of the test meaningless: the idea of such a credibility analysis is to try to show that answers which sound reliable/unreliable are indeed (numerically) correct/incorrect. Nobody needs to "learn" that correct/incorrect answers are indeed correct/incorrect; this, we already all know. But aren't there other elements one can use in Hokulele's answer to assess its credibility?

Her answer: "The first number that came to my attention is xx, so that is my choice for this test." does not make her answer credible, in my opinion, in a telepathy test, where the thing that matters is what you (telepathically) perceive, not the first number which "comes to your attention". Hokulele's answer is written using a rather formal style, which is odd here (and which I even find slightly arrogant , which is not favorable for credibility). Telepathic perception is probably mostly an involuntary process, something you mostly cannot control, it's not like "giving (visual) attention" to an image.

But she also said later 'I "predict" that his credibility ratings will no longer correlate with correctness'. This does suggest that she wrote a (numerically) correct answer, with a not credible answer (she most probably realizes her answer is not credible), so that the usual correlation is lost (her answer does not seem credible; if the frequent correlation must be lost, one should expect it to be numerically correct). This an argument I believe I can use because it has nothing to do with my doubtful knowledge of her writing 2.

So, instead of giving a negative credibility, I finally choose: CR = 0 (I note also she gave no MD5 hash). I prefer to not give a positive credibility to an answer which explains a number choice by "a first number coming to attention" (as if she had seen it).

2) Ladewig said:
Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I concentrated on the assigned task and an image of a brightly lit piece of paper appeared, the circled number on it was xx.



.
I am not encrypting it, I will just send it to Agatha
This answer suggests more (an active) "remote viewing", than telepathy.
CR=-5

3) stanfr said:
Originally Posted by stanfr View Post
4a4a8a7580d4b195da065aefb5d40671

I don't know what the point of the XX is if im sending an encrypted response...
,
and also:
Originally Posted by stanfr View Post
Here:
the number i came up with is ##

what's the point? what does my statement have to do with credibility?
As many have pointed out, your protocol is flawed. If I said for example:

I chose ## because that is the number most mentalists will chose.

How is this going to do anything to demonstrate 'telepathy'? All it will test is how versed you are in mentailism.
This answer is somewhat critical, and aggressive. It contains a spelling error: he wrote "mentailism" instead of "mentalism". His idea of using "##", instead of "xx", is interesting though, since "#" is a symbol for "number" in English (although I personally still prefer somewhat "xx"), I do not think this should decrease his credibility. This answerer is the only one who posted a MD5 hash (although his first answer, with the hash, was problematic because the (target) number did not seem to appear in it).
CR=-5

4) Kid Eager said:
Originally Posted by Kid Eager View Post
The last time I partcipated in this guessing game I was accused of being in a mental institution and therefore my response was invalid.

I'm now in a high-sided elastic banjo with an eskimo parasol, so rest assured that my response is both fluffy and perky.

The number I'm seeing is XX.
His first sentence contains a spelling error ("partcipated"), and is incorrect, although it is related to a comment I really made (see here): his answer (in my previous test) was not credible, but valid. His second sentence sounds crazy again (like in the previous test).
CR=-5.
Note: Btw, crazy sounding answers are not necessarily a problem in this test, in which a certain amount of lying is in fact allowed. If your answer is numerically incorrect, but at the same time, obviously not credible, I will think that you have made a valuable contribution to the test.

5) fagin answered:
Originally Posted by fagin View Post
xx
Which I think is 20.
This answer was interesting because it made me realize (after an explanation given by forum member Ladewig) that xx is the lower-case Roman number for 20.
However, the full, original and unmasked (with no "xx") answer:
2
Which I think is 20.

(for exemple) is incorrect (this answer would also be incorrect if "2" was replaced by "1", or "3", or "4"). This is a weakness of this answer. Also, no hash given.
CR = -4.

6) Femke answered:
Originally Posted by Femke View Post
...
I think you wrote xx in your circle.

Femke
and added later:
Originally Posted by Femke View Post
... I'm interested in how Michel will rate the answers, independent of their being the right guess or not. And, more importantly (Michel, are you listening?), whether the resulting non-correlation to the guess might get him to re-evaluate his opinion of his credibility rating.

So, I really hope that more posters will submit a guess, because I am curious.
Her first post seems credible to me (I was thinking giving this answer CR = 5, after I saw only the first post). However, in her second post, she said she expected an absence of correlation between credibility and (numerical) correctness. This leads me to suspect she may not have answered correctly. So, finally, I give this answer: CR = 0.

7) gabeygoat answered:
Originally Posted by gabeygoat View Post
I'm gonna guess xx
not sure what im doing
This answerer seems to have doubts, his punctuation is a little negligent. This answer seems neither quite reliable, nor obviously very unreliable.
CR = 0.


Several people also seem to have suggested in various ways that the target number might be "2" in this thread. I think it may be useful to acknowledge these things, because they may be some evidence for telepathy, and also they may have a good influence on other answerers (although some people might say that "this is not serious").

For example, Akhenaten (who is in Australia) said, in a fairly credible sounding way:
Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
I'm getting equally strong impressions of "2" and "4" so should I submit something like xx,xx or should I split it into separate posts? ...
and, later:
Originally Posted by Akhenaten View Post
Nope. xx is definitely 20 and it's had me completely flummoxed from the start why you want everyone to submit that same number, even though it's not one of 1, 2, 3 or 4.

Very confusing.
"20" is obviously closely related to "2" (but not to 1, or 3, or 4).

I also note that Iamme posted two consecutive texts in this thread (posts #73 and #74). His post #74, a modified version of his post #73, was posted only 10 minutes after post #73, when post #73 could still have been edited.

Seven minutes after fagin posted:
Originally Posted by fagin View Post
xx
Which I think is 20.
(as said before, "20" is obviously simply related to "2"), Iamme posted:
Originally Posted by Iamme View Post
I am getting a strong inner feeling...perhaps telepathic from other members...that this thread will soon run it`s course.
. This also suggests Iamme knew the correct answer was a "2".

devnull said:
Originally Posted by devnull View Post
I choose eleventy.
"eleventy" is obviously related to "11", which contains two "1" digits.

"3" was several times explicitly answered (in violation of this thread's protocol); I didn't find any of these answers credible.

I have now posted all "credibility ratings" for the seven valid answers of this test, so I now ask Agatha to post the full answers (or the "guessed" numbers); I'll send her a message about this. Hokulele, Ladewig, stanfr, Kid Eager, fagin, Femke and gabeygoat are also invited to post or verify their full answers, or their numbers. I also ask stanfr to post the text which led to his MD5 hash of post #44.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 12:27 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Snipped for rambling nonsense. "eleventy" is obviously related to "11", which contains two "1" digits.
So in all Michel has made the astounding discovery that you can get to any number by adding other numbers in various ways, I give this test a CR rating of absolute zero.

I predicted you would fail, I was correct.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 01:16 PM   #129
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I beg your pardon, I have just rechecked and I've actually received seven responses.

Unblinding the guesses:

Hokulele: CR=0
Hokulele's actual answer: "The first number that came to my attention is 1, so that is my choice for this test."

Ladewig: CR=-5
Ladewig's actual answer: "I concentrated on the assigned task and an image of a brightly lit piece of paper appeared, the circled number on it was 2."

stanfr: CR=-5
stanfr's actual answer: "I like number 1 cause it's the first thing I thought of."

Kid Eager: CR=-5
Kid Eager's actual answer: "Please note number 4 for moi!"

fagin: CR=-4
fagin did not send me his/her guess.

Femke: CR=0
Femke's actual answer: "I think you wrote 2 in your circle."

gabeygoat: CR=0
gabeygoat's actual answer: "guessed 4 de4f022d0deba6911bedf9a0350256aa"

I did receive one more answer, from NaySayer. As Michel hasn't assessed NaySayer's response(s) in this thread for credibility, I will not post this answer to the thread.

Of the six answers which have both a credibility rating and a corresponding answer sent to me, two picked the right answer. 25% chance is 1.5, so this is not outwith the number expected by chance. The right answers were given a credibility rating of respectively -5 and 0.

No participant in this second test, whether their answer was correct or not, was given a credibility rating of greater than zero. One right and two wrong answers were given the highest credibility rating of zero.

In the first test, when Michel had unblinded answers to assess, all the correct answers were given credibility ratings of 8. Wrong answers were given credibility ratings of between -10 and -1; no person giving a wrong answer received a positive credibility rating.

I think it is obvious that in the previous test, Michel's knowledge of the accuracy of the answer affected the credibility rating he gave. In this test, he was far more cautious about credibility ratings ranging from -5 to 0, whereas in the first test he used a scale of -10 to 8.

If Michel assesses NaySayer's response(s) in the thread and then I unblind NaySayer's answer, that will change the number of responses from six to seven. The percentage of correct and incorrect answers will perforce change too.

I hope Michel will learn two things from this thread; firstly that he is far from unbiased in his credibility ratings, and secondly that as far as the results revealed so far, once again the correct answers are no more than would be expected by chance. Nothing in this thread or the other has suggested any evidence for telepathy.

The post-facto attempts to turn some jokes or non-answers into correct ones, while discarding all the incorrect answers, is another example of bias.
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Last edited by Agatha; 2nd November 2013 at 01:28 PM. Reason: added a bit.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 01:35 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
I beg your pardon, I have just rechecked and I've actually received seven responses.

-snipped to avoid a wall of text-

The post-facto attempts to turn some jokes or non-answers into correct ones, while discarding all the incorrect answers, is another example of bias.
I admit my first response to the op was a bit snarky, Mostly out of frustration. But I did pm an earnest guess.

Anyway, Michel is engaging in what I call "The Number 23 Fallacy" [So named after the movie in which if you add numbers or subtract them in a certain way you always get the number 23] (This may be called something else) I still don't know how 11 counts as #2 instead of #1
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Old 2nd November 2013, 01:52 PM   #131
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If the random number generator had come up with 1 as the target, I am sure eleventy or 11 would have been counted as 1!
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Old 2nd November 2013, 01:55 PM   #132
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I'd just like to comment that Michel's explanations for his credibility ratings were far more surreal than I could possibly have imagined, so well done there...

But I have to disqualify him for moving the experimental goalposts by including thread posts in the assessments other than the posts required by the protocol. This is cherry picking data from outside the experiment, which is obviously a Bad Thing. Not that it makes the slightest difference in this case, of course.

GIGO.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 02:01 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
If the random number generator had come up with 1 as the target, I am sure eleventy or 11 would have been counted as 1!
No, Michel would have counted it as two correct answers.

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Old 2nd November 2013, 02:58 PM   #134
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Because I live on Planet XX I leaped confidently to the end of the thread, whereupon I boldly assert my vote. The number is surely XX, which is as we speak being narrowed down to a single digit, probably approaching X. In fact, I'm confident that my actual answer will be so amazingly close to XX that it will not skew the poll's scientific validity one single bit to go ahead and count it as correct.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 06:03 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
...
"eleventy" is obviously related to "11", which contains two "1" digits.
...
Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
...I still don't know how 11 counts as #2 instead of #1
Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
If the random number generator had come up with 1 as the target, I am sure eleventy or 11 would have been counted as 1!
Not counted as a 1 (neither eleventy nor 11 are valid answers in this test), but it is true that 11 is also closely related to 1, since it contains two 1s, and I might perhaps have mentioned it at the end of a qualitative analysis. I don't find the relationship between 11 and 3 (or 4) so obvious, even though the binary number 11 is equal to decimal 3 (but this doesn't seem so obvious to me).
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Old 2nd November 2013, 06:49 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Not counted as a 1 (neither eleventy nor 11 are valid answers in this test), but it is true that 11 is also closely related to 1, since it contains two 1s, and I might perhaps have mentioned it at the end of a qualitative analysis. I don't find the relationship between 11 and 3 (or 4) so obvious, even though the binary number 11 is equal to decimal 3 (but this doesn't seem so obvious to me).
So in short those answers don't conform to your bias.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 09:10 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Not counted as a 1 (neither eleventy nor 11 are valid answers in this test), but it is true that 11 is also closely related to 1, since it contains two 1s, and I might perhaps have mentioned it at the end of a qualitative analysis. I don't find the relationship between 11 and 3 (or 4) so obvious, even though the binary number 11 is equal to decimal 3 (but this doesn't seem so obvious to me).
It ought to be obvious. 11 is one more than the number base in every base. It is closely related to 1 in the way a 2x4 is closely related to a house.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 09:58 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
... and I might perhaps have mentioned it at the end of a qualitative analysis.
OK, I am interested in why you would include it?

Norm
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Old 2nd November 2013, 10:23 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
OK, I am interested in why you would include it?

Norm
OK, let me take an example. I ask you to guess a one-digit number, equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9. The target (produced by the random number generator) is 1. After a week, I get only two answers: one is "A", and the other one is "11". I might point out that, although both answers are invalid, they're nevertheless both related to "1" (and not "5" for example). Perhaps, if I want to do a serious telepathy project, I must say this.
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Old 2nd November 2013, 11:14 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Thank you for your answers, it is perhaps time now to think about concluding this test.

<snip>

What a steaming pile of pseudoscientific nonsense.

Michel, I suggest you pick up and read a basic book on science before you try your hand at any more "experiments" and continue making a fool of yourself.

You have obviously zero understanding of the scientific method or basic statistics, and your test and its results are absolutely worthless.
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Old 3rd November 2013, 12:12 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
After a week, I get only two answers: one is "A", and the other one is "11". I might point out that, although both answers are invalid, they're nevertheless both related to "1" (and not "5" for example).
Apart from "A" being the first letter of the alphabet, and "11" having two ones in it, and you have already suggested in this very thread that this could mean "2", you really are making this up as you go along.

Quote:
Perhaps, if I want to do a serious telepathy project, I must say this.
So, now you are saying that none of your three telepathy tests in this forum have been serious? How about trying one serious one with proper controls, instead of trolling members of this Board?

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Old 3rd November 2013, 07:17 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
OK, let me take an example. I ask you to guess a one-digit number, equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9. The target (produced by the random number generator) is 1. After a week, I get only two answers: one is "A", and the other one is "11". I might point out that, although both answers are invalid, they're nevertheless both related to "1" (and not "5" for example). Perhaps, if I want to do a serious telepathy project, I must say this.
11 is related to one in the symbols it uses perhaps, but (in case what I said earlier flew by unnoticed) numerically, "1" turns out to be the only positive integer that it can never be. In all number bases 11 represents one more than the number base. In base 1 it is 2, in 2 it is 3, in base 16 it is 17, and if there were reason to invent a base 73 it would be 74.
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Old 3rd November 2013, 07:38 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
Of the six answers which have both a credibility rating and a corresponding answer sent to me, two picked the right answer. 25% chance is 1.5, so this is not outwith the number expected by chance.
I note that Michel has yet to comment on this result, which is clearly negative for his telepathy hypothesis.

Quote:
The right answers were given a credibility rating of respectively -5 and 0. No participant in this second test, whether their answer was correct or not, was given a credibility rating of greater than zero. One right and two wrong answers were given the highest credibility rating of zero.

In the first test, when Michel had unblinded answers to assess, all the correct answers were given credibility ratings of 8. Wrong answers were given credibility ratings of between -10 and -1; no person giving a wrong answer received a positive credibility rating.
This strongly suggests that, despite his protestations to the contrary, his credibility ratings in previous tests were influenced by his knowledge of whether the person whose credibility he was assessing had guessed the correct number. Michel is again yet to comment on this finding of his experiment.
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Old 3rd November 2013, 10:56 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
OK, let me take an example. I ask you to guess a one-digit number, equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9. The target (produced by the random number generator) is 1. After a week, I get only two answers: one is "A", and the other one is "11". I might point out that, although both answers are invalid, they're nevertheless both related to "1" (and not "5" for example). Perhaps, if I want to do a serious telepathy project, I must say this.
Naturally, if you were to take this approach, you'd have to specify in the protocol (i.e. before the test) precisely which rules, procedures, or transformations could be applied to the answers for them to be considered valid.

You would also have to show, in advance, that the application of such rules, procedures, or transformations would give an equal distribution of valid answers. You'd probably be better explicitly listing every valid answer.
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Old 3rd November 2013, 12:54 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
OK, let me take an example. I ask you to guess a one-digit number, equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9. The target (produced by the random number generator) is 1. After a week, I get only two answers: one is "A", and the other one is "11". I might point out that, although both answers are invalid, they're nevertheless both related to "1" (and not "5" for example). Perhaps, if I want to do a serious telepathy project, I must say this.
No, if you were conducting a serious experiment (in the sense of that can be taken seriously by innocent bystanders), the discussion ends at "invalid".

That's it.

That entry is invalid, and whatever the reasons are for its being invalid, that is where any further discussion about that entry is at best pointless, and will, at worst, harm the outcome of the experiment.

Here, the latter is the case: Your little exercise is worthless. Even if 6 out of 6 people had guessed the correct number, their chances of doing so were just slightly worse than 1 in 4000. Can I predict 12 coinflips in a row? Sure - if i spend a week flipping coins...

But pointless as it is, if there was a strong effect, we would expect a very rare result. And we didn't see one. And you failed to accept and admit that.
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Old 3rd November 2013, 01:49 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Not counted as a 1 (neither eleventy nor 11 are valid answers in this test), but it is true that 11 is also closely related to 1, since it contains two 1s, and I might perhaps have mentioned it at the end of a qualitative analysis. I don't find the relationship between 11 and 3 (or 4) so obvious, even though the binary number 11 is equal to decimal 3 (but this doesn't seem so obvious to me).
'Rigorous method'. When are you going to start applying this method?
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Old 7th November 2013, 07:47 AM   #147
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Analysis of the results

Error, sorry.

Last edited by Michel H; 7th November 2013 at 07:49 AM. Reason: Error, sorry.
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Old 7th November 2013, 08:53 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Error, sorry.
For wasting time? Apology accepted.
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Old 7th November 2013, 09:56 AM   #149
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Analysis of the results

Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
...
Unblinding the guesses:

Hokulele: CR=0
Hokulele's actual answer: "The first number that came to my attention is 1, so that is my choice for this test."

Ladewig: CR=-5
Ladewig's actual answer: "I concentrated on the assigned task and an image of a brightly lit piece of paper appeared, the circled number on it was 2."

stanfr: CR=-5
stanfr's actual answer: "I like number 1 cause it's the first thing I thought of."

Kid Eager: CR=-5
Kid Eager's actual answer: "Please note number 4 for moi!"

fagin: CR=-4
fagin did not send me his/her guess.

Femke: CR=0
Femke's actual answer: "I think you wrote 2 in your circle."

gabeygoat: CR=0
gabeygoat's actual answer: "guessed 4 de4f022d0deba6911bedf9a0350256aa"
...
First of all, I would like to thank Agatha for posting quickly all (actual) answers she received, only about one hour after I sent her a message asking her to do so. If you have participated in this test, and you find any discrepancy between the answer you sent to Agatha and the answer (by you) she posted, please say it.

1) Hokulele's masked (with "xx") answer was:
Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
The first number that came to my attention is xx, so that is my choice for this test.
The (full) answer she sent to Agatha was (see above):
Quote:
The first number that came to my attention is 1, so that is my choice for this test.
These two answers (masked and actual) appear to agree with each other, to be compatible. She provided no MD5 hash, but I decided in post #127 (before I knew which answers were correct) that this would be only a minor and acceptable violation (it might even be viewed as an improvement) of the protocol of this test , and that the corresponding answers should be still considered as valid. I see three reasons for this. First, sending answers to the "referee" (the person you have to refer to, to know the actual answer) Agatha, already provides substantial protection with respect to the risk of guessed numbers being altered after I have revealed the target (and/or credibility ratings); adding an additional layer of protection may not be absolutely indispensable. Secondly, as remarked by Agatha in post #15 (I responded in post #17), my initial protocol contained a serious weakness (almost an error actually), because, if answerers provide both their masked (or blinded) answer, and the MD5 hash of their actual answers, I can find out their guessed number (although I probably wouldn't do it) by trying xx = 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, until the corresponding hash is identical with the provided hash (I corrected this "error" in post #17). I cannot reasonably blame people for not following a flawed protocol (participants in the test could have followed my revised procedure in post #17, but this is perhaps a little too complicated for many of you, who perhaps don't have time to read (carefully) all posts of the thread). Thirdly, of the seven forum members who gave answers which were found valid in post #127 above, only one (stanfr) provided a MD5 hash. But stanfr did not reveal the sentence used to produce this hash, so it is not useful.

2) Ladewig's blinded answer was:
Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I concentrated on the assigned task and an image of a brightly lit piece of paper appeared, the circled number on it was xx.
...
His actual answer:
Quote:
I concentrated on the assigned task and an image of a brightly lit piece of paper appeared, the circled number on it was 2.
.
OK
3) stanfr's blinded answer:
Originally Posted by stanfr View Post
...
the number i came up with is ##

what's the point? what does my statement have to do with credibility?
As many have pointed out, your protocol is flawed. If I said for example:

I chose ## because that is the number most mentalists will chose.

How is this going to do anything to demonstrate 'telepathy'? All it will test is how versed you are in mentailism.
His actual answer:
Quote:
I like number 1 cause it's the first thing I thought of.
Here, there is a problem: the text stanfr posted in the thread is different from the text he sent to Agatha. I said, in the opening post:
Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
...
It may also be useful (I recommend it) that you send your (full) answer, in the form of a private message, to either Agatha, or Femke...
I recommended participants send their full answers to Agatha or Femke, not a different answer obviously. I believe sending a different answer to the referee is a serious violation of the protocol of this test, because the credibility rating I gave to the masked answer (with "xx") is not necessarily valid for the "actual" answer in such a case.

4) Kid Eager's blinded response:
Originally Posted by Kid Eager View Post
The last time I partcipated in this guessing game I was accused of being in a mental institution and therefore my response was invalid.

I'm now in a high-sided elastic banjo with an eskimo parasol, so rest assured that my response is both fluffy and perky.

The number I'm seeing is XX.
His actual response:
Quote:
Please note number 4 for moi!
Here, I am facing the same problem as with stanfr above: the answer with "xx" provided in the thread is different from the answer sent to (and posted by) Agatha. If Kid Eager had sent to Agatha the message: "Please note number 4 for me!" ("moi" is the French word which means "me" in English), one might argue that this message is simple, normal and serious-sounding, and that sending such a message should not be considered as a (serious) violation of the protocol. But Kid Eager sent an odd combination of English and French, with a possible emphasis on himself (note incidentally that "moi" is 50% longer than "me").

5) Femke answered:
Originally Posted by Femke View Post
...
I think you wrote xx in your circle.
...
while her actual, complete answer was:
Quote:
I think you wrote 2 in your circle.
Here, there is again perfect agreement between the blinded answer and the full answer, so this answer is valid.

6) gabeygoat answered:
Originally Posted by gabeygoat View Post
I'm gonna guess xx
not sure what im doing
while his actual answer was:
Quote:
guessed 4 de4f022d0deba6911bedf9a0350256aa
Here again, for the third time in this test, there is a discrepancy between the blinded answer (with "xx") posted in the thread, and the actual answer sent to Agatha.

If I consider only, in my final analysis of the results, the answers by members of this forum who abided by the recommended protocol (note: not providing a MD5 hash is not considered here as a serious violation, for the reasons explained at the beginning of this post), then there are only three valid answers: those by Hokulele, Ladewig and Femke. Hokulele's (numerical) answer (1) is incorrect, while Ladewig's and Femke's answer are correct (a special thank you to them). This means the the final rate of correct answers in this test is equal to 2/3 = 66.7%.

This correct answer rate is much higher than the (approximately) 25% expected from chance alone, and seems to support my telepathy hypothesis (the assumption that I have a propensity to communicate my thoughts to others everywhere on the surface of this planet).

The probability of obtaining a hit rate equal to, or larger than 2/3 (if chance alone is responsible for the results, and assuming a probability of 25% of answering correctly), called the p-value, is equal to: p = 15.6%. This is not statistically significant, because of the smallness of the sample (3 valid answers only). This means that a test like this one would have to be repeated several times, and with favorable outcomes, before a safe conclusion about the existence of telepathy can be drawn.

If I give a credibility rating of CR=-10 to all answerers who sent to Agatha an answer different from the one they posted in the thread (except, of course, for the replacement of the guessed number by "xx"), the average CR for those who answered (numerically) correctly is:
CR = (-5 + 0)/2 = -2.5, while the average CR for those who provided incorrect numerical answers is:
CR= (0 - 10 - 10 -10)/4 = -7.5.

This seems to confirm the finding I reported at the end of my previous test, namely that that (numerically) incorrect answers tend to be less credible.
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Old 7th November 2013, 10:07 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
This means the the final rate of correct answers in this test is equal to 2/3 = 66.7%.
I actually laughed out load at that.
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Old 7th November 2013, 11:08 AM   #151
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"If I throw out all the wrong answers for spurious reasons, I get results greater than chance!"
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Old 7th November 2013, 01:24 PM   #152
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I wish somebody had taken the time to explain all the unwritten rules that get used to exclude answers - I would have stayed monolingual if I had known it was that important!
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Old 7th November 2013, 02:21 PM   #153
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My credibility rating, even after the change, is higher than Ladewig's, and my response was incorrect. Therefor, your conclusion is wrong. Average be damned.
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Old 7th November 2013, 02:23 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
This seems to confirm the finding I reported at the end of my previous test, namely that that (numerically) incorrect answers tend to be less credible.


No, it confirms the finding that everyone else reported at the end of your previous test, namely that you don't have a clue what you're doing.
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Old 7th November 2013, 04:45 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I recommended participants send their full answers to Agatha or Femke, not a different answer obviously. I believe sending a different answer to the referee is a serious violation of the protocol of this test, because the credibility rating I gave to the masked answer (with "xx") is not necessarily valid for the "actual" answer in such a case.
If you were going to disqualify answers based on this criteria, why didn't you say so in your protocol? You said that

Quote:
It may also be useful (I recommend it) that you send your (full) answer, in the form of a private message, to either Agatha, or Femke, or to both
If participants were required to match their public posting with their private posting exactly, why didn't you say so?

Honestly, you clearly failed the test as designed by you. What does that tell you?
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Old 7th November 2013, 05:27 PM   #156
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So if the public and private text don't match as you just recommended, the answer is invalid, but if the MD5 that you asked for as part of the protocol, and went to some lengths to explain the importance of, is missing, well that's only a 'minor and acceptable violation' or even 'an improvement'...?

Sorry Mike, the protocol is the protocol. Either it's followed, or the answer must be rejected.
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Old 7th November 2013, 05:32 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
"If I throw out all the wrong answers for spurious reasons, I get results greater than chance!"
Yet many threads later he still does not understand why few if any take his tests seriously.
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Old 7th November 2013, 05:35 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by TheSapient View Post
...If you were going to disqualify answers based on this criteria, why didn't you say so in your protocol? You said that
Quote:
It may also be useful (I recommend it) that you send your (full) answer, in the form of a private message, to either Agatha, or Femke, or to both
If participants were required to match their public posting with their private posting exactly, why didn't you say so?
...
TheSapient, I am a little bit surprised by your comment. If people (as I recommended) send their full answers to Agatha, and also post publicly their answers in this thread, after having replaced their guessed numbers by "xx", then automatically the two texts are almost identical (this fact is already implied by the recommended protocol). However, if I do a more or less similar test again, I think I'll stress the importance of sending to the referee exactly your answer (and not a different one) [unless, of course, I make another change to the protocol, which hopefully will be well understood].
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Old 7th November 2013, 06:21 PM   #159
Michel H
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Originally Posted by dlorde View Post
So if the public and private text don't match as you just recommended, the answer is invalid...
Well, nobody can prevent me to retain, in my final (statistical) analysis of the results, only the answers by members of this forum who abided by the recommended protocol. The fact I got a better result by doing so seems to confirm the validity of credibility ideas I have tried to develop before: careful people, who take the time necessary to carefully read the opening post, seem to answer better. I think I have already explained in great detail why no MD5 hash was not a disqualifying factor.

Last edited by Michel H; 7th November 2013 at 06:30 PM.
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Old 7th November 2013, 06:24 PM   #160
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I didnt even see Hokulele's response until now. So, clearly i'm psychic since i came up the same silly response (either that, or brilliant minds think alike! ) The point i was making is that any dimwit can correctly figure that my number was 1 from the fact that my statement highlights "first". Amazingly, Michel still thought Hokulele picked '2'
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