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Tags telepathy , telepathy test

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Old 4th September 2017, 04:34 PM   #241
Startz
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post

It's ... um ... 1/52*2/51*3/50*4/49*5/48
So that's 240 / 311875200
Which is 1:1299480

But even at 1:1000, I think that's a demonstration that warrants at least a second test.
I don't think that's right. But as I said, combinatorics ain't my strong point

I'll post my code and results in case anyone is interested, but I don't want to get in the way of King and LL actually doing the test.
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Old 4th September 2017, 04:35 PM   #242
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Code:
function checkMatches
%{
fun function for ISF

Dick Startz
September 2017
%}

rng('default');
nSims = 100000000;
minNumber = 5;
matches = zeros(nSims,1);
for iSim = 1:nSims
    matches(iSim) = sum(randperm(52) == randperm(52));
end
figure;
histogram(matches);
title([num2str(sum(matches>=minNumber)),' successes in ',...
    num2str(nSims),' trials']);
disp(['Probability of ',num2str(minNumber),' or more = ',...
    num2str(sum(matches>=minNumber)/nSims)]);

prob = nan(10,1);
for iProb = 1:10
    prob(iProb) = sum(matches>=iProb)/nSims;
end
figure;
plot(1:10,prob,'linewidth',2);
title('probability of getting k or more matches out of 52 cards');
xlabel('k')
ylabel('probability');
[(1:10)',prob]

end
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Old 4th September 2017, 04:37 PM   #243
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Old 4th September 2017, 04:38 PM   #244
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Old 4th September 2017, 04:40 PM   #245
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Output:
>> checkMatches
Probability of 5 or more = 0.0036641
ans =
1.0000 0.6321
2.0000 0.2642
3.0000 0.0803
4.0000 0.0190
5.0000 0.0037
6.0000 0.0006
7.0000 0.0001
8.0000 0.0000
9.0000 0.0000
10.0000 0.0000
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Old 4th September 2017, 08:40 PM   #246
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5 cards seems about right for a preliminary, unscientific test. Doing it twice would be enough in my mind for more controlled, more scientific testing.
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Old 4th September 2017, 10:53 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
It doesn't seem to exist. There is an extrapolation you're making from results in scientific settings to reality in general. Mistakes have been made along those lines before.



I agree with this.
If "telepathy" exists on earth it has nothing to do with what has been described as telepathy in the past.

To use an analogy. This is like you claiming you have an elephant in your garage and you say you know this because you can feel it, smell it and see it. I turn up at your garage, we open the door and I don't see an elephant, I walk around your garage and don't bump into an elephant, I take deep sniffs all around your garage but can't smell an elephant.

In what way at all is what you claim to exist in your garage an elephant even if we grant there is something unknown in your garage?

Telepathy as has been described and claimed in the past is like your elephant, it has certain characteristics none of which has any correspondence to the gaps you are now trying to shove telepathy into. In other words you are redefining telepathy and saying it now means something but you don't know what characteristics it has beyond it being something that could exist. (Never mind why we should even think something does exist in the first place since it no longer has any link to what has previously claimed to be telepathy.)
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Old 4th September 2017, 10:53 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
For some reason I am reminded of someone in the 1800's talking about disease and miasmic vapors.
Then you still fail to comprehend what is being said.
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Old 4th September 2017, 10:55 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
This is probably the most depressing part of discussing things like telepathy with people who want there to be room in the world for magic. They discount the amazing things we can do with technology as mundane, even trivial or unimportant. Cell phones allow us to communicate across large distances. We can view things in places and at scales we never dreamed possible. We can remotely control devices that allow us to move objects, or even explore other planets.

And yet, this isn't good enough. There must still be some sort of magic that we cannot yet explain or comprehend. There has to be room for souls, fairies, and extraordinary powers of the mind. No matter how fascinating the universe as it is may be (and that video linked earlier really is fascinating), it will never be satisfying for some.
All of that takes work to understand, it takes work to make it happen, fairy tales and folklore are easy.
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Old 5th September 2017, 02:10 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
It doesn't seem to exist. There is an extrapolation you're making from results in scientific settings to reality in general. Mistakes have been made along those lines before.
No. Sorry, but that's just wrong.

Have you watched the video? Telepathy does not exist, nor can it exist. At least, as I've said, within the realms of what we can observe.
Do please watch the video. The explanation is clear, even for a non-scientist like myself.
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Old 5th September 2017, 03:29 AM   #251
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My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.
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Old 5th September 2017, 04:07 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.
Quite. Let's compare this with a technique that actually works, shall we? I suggest that Loss Leader follow up the telepathy test by posting the sequence of cards in full on the forums, then seeing how many correct answers are successfully transmitted to the rest of us. I'm betting on 52 out of 52, despite the overwhelmingly high odds against.

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Old 5th September 2017, 04:09 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
You could define it two ways: reading someone's mind utilizing processes already known (e.g., radio); reading someone's mind utilizing processes not known.

I think the latter is what most people have in mind, not people with tiny radios in their heads.
Why ever not? It's almost as if you want it to be well... magic... if it existed it would have to conform to the physics of our reality so it would have to be something akin to an organic radio.
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Old 5th September 2017, 04:24 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
No not like that at all, as we actually did not know that.

I know it is an astonishing thought, that we are approaching in some areas absolutely accurate descriptions of reality at certain scales, but we really are. Watch the video linked to earlier, we can now make claims based on descriptions of reality that are so accurate that there is simply no room for supernatural psi. All the gaps where it could have lived have been explored, there are no more gaps for it to hide in.

It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem. I pointed out that thanks to the structure of the periodic table and our understanding of atomic structure that was an option, to which the person replied, "But what if on another planet there's a whole different periodic table?".
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Old 5th September 2017, 04:35 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
It may seem trivial to you, but it is in fact the crux of the matter.

We (by which I mean human scientists) have shown conclusively that telepathy does not exist on earth.

We have not tested the entire universe. It is possible that there are things out there that we don't yet know of.
Could that include telepathic aliens? It could. It would overturn what we know now, but that's happened before. It's unlikely, given our current state of knowledge, but I think it would go beyond what we know to make any kind of definitive statement about a universe we have only just begun to explore.
I disagree with the highlighted. It would certainly add to our knowledge, but as many of us (and Darat deserves special mention for carrying on in the face of desk butting resistance), yourself included I think, have been trying to get across the information would have to be transmitted using a medium known to physics even if via a process not previously seen in terrestrial biology.
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Old 5th September 2017, 04:48 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Quite. Let's compare this with a technique that actually works, shall we? I suggest that Loss Leader follow up the telepathy test by posting the sequence of cards in full on the forums, then seeing how many correct answers are successfully transmitted to the rest of us. I'm betting on 52 out of 52, despite the overwhelmingly high odds against.

I'm just trying to work up an easy protocol which, while not rigorously scientific, would merit further study.
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Old 5th September 2017, 05:17 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem. I pointed out that thanks to the structure of the periodic table and our understanding of atomic structure that was an option, to which the person replied, "But what if on another planet there's a whole different periodic table?".
Seems to me it would NOT be an option.
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Old 5th September 2017, 05:33 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Respect has and will always be extended where it is offered.

Offer helpful advice or not.

Volunteer or not.

Characterizations of me are unwelcome.
Well that is so very unfortunate!

Since you have already provided your own characterization of yourself with your silly talk about people from Atlantis, space ships flying about, and numerous claims about how telepathy is real, then there is no need for anyone else to characterize you.
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Old 5th September 2017, 05:43 AM   #259
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King of the Americas, this person claims to be able to transmit their thoughts.

He would be an ideal starting point for you both to prove that telepathy exists, if you want to characterize yourselves as honest. If that isn't how you want to characterize yourself, carry on as you have been.

I'd be interested in hearing how the protocol negotiations are going since you were directed to him earlier.
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Old 5th September 2017, 06:23 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.
Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
I'm just trying to work up an easy protocol which, while not rigorously scientific, would merit further study.
There are things that exist that don't work perfectly: radio, the internet....

Loss Leader has proposed a simple test. It won't scientifically settle the matter, but it will allow King to establish a prima facie case. Let's all encourage King to give it a shot.
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Old 5th September 2017, 07:35 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
I disagree with the highlighted. It would certainly add to our knowledge, but as many of us (and Darat deserves special mention for carrying on in the face of desk butting resistance), yourself included I think, have been trying to get across the information would have to be transmitted using a medium known to physics even if via a process not previously seen in terrestrial biology.
I think that's a reasonable correction to what I said, and I agree with the rest of what you say here.
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Old 5th September 2017, 09:19 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem...
Similarly it reminds me of when I was a kid and thought how cool it would be to discover a completely new colour.
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Old 5th September 2017, 10:30 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Nope.

And, I have nothing further to say about said Challenge.
You probably should. Its fairly significant that a significant prize that could be claimed by demonstrating telepathic powers has never been claimed.

But you concede that it is real?
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Old 5th September 2017, 10:55 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Similarly it reminds me of when I was a kid and thought how cool it would be to discover a completely new colour.
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Old 5th September 2017, 12:08 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
There are things that exist that don't work perfectly: radio, the internet....

Loss Leader has proposed a simple test. It won't scientifically settle the matter, but it will allow King to establish a prima facie case. Let's all encourage King to give it a shot.
Fair enough.

Suggestion:

13 random cards are selected from a thoroughly shuffled deck (For full transparency I'd suggest allowing 1 of the jokers into the pack)

Figure out a way to document it and retrieve the order in a secure manner

KOTA does his thing (Is it he can transmit thoughts or read thoughts?)

All 13 cards, Value and suit are named in exact order. ( I went with 13 because there are approx 6,227,020,800 ways to arrange any 13 given cards)

I'm sure more of this can be ironed out, However, I suspect this will be a long a carousel ride of back and forth in just agreeing upon a simple protocol.
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Old 5th September 2017, 12:15 PM   #266
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King of the Americas:

Loss Leader has proposed a test, as you requested. Several people have suggested variants, but why don't you tell us if Loss Leader's idea works for you. Or if you'd like something a little different tell us the details of a test you'd like to do.
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Old 5th September 2017, 12:41 PM   #267
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Amateurs! you have no idea of how to correctly perform a telepathy test!

First announce a list of four word choices, pick one from the list, mentally broadcast it, and solicit responses.

Now comes the hard part, determining which of the responses were hits. The correct answer is "all of them"! You just need to figure out how.

Any with the correct word are obvious. The rest will take a bit of creativity. For example if the number of words in a response matches the number of letters in the chosen word, that is a hit. Ditto if the number of words matches the position of the chosen word in the list.

Any similarity of anything in a response to the chosen word is also a hit. If nothing pops out, keep trying. Perhaps the respondent's avatar has some vague connection with the chosen word.

If, after carefully trying, you just cannot find even the most vague connection between a response and the chosen word then declare the response as not being serious and so not countable.

Now, some people may object to your methodology. Just ignore them. After all they are likely in on the conspiracy and jealous of your telepathic abilities.
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Old 5th September 2017, 05:17 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem. I pointed out that thanks to the structure of the periodic table and our understanding of atomic structure that was an option, to which the person replied, "But what if on another planet there's a whole different periodic table?".
Instead of a new element, how about a new type of matter, that interacts weakly, massively outnumbers "regular" matter, and stubbornly refuses to be observed? That sounds crazy! And to top it off, how about an unknown type of energy that is 70% of the universe, discovered only 20 years ago, completely revolutionized our view of the universe and also remains a mystery? That would also be crazy, wouldn't it?
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Old 5th September 2017, 06:25 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Instead of a new element, how about a new type of matter, that interacts weakly, massively outnumbers "regular" matter, and stubbornly refuses to be observed? That sounds crazy! And to top it off, how about an unknown type of energy that is 70% of the universe, discovered only 20 years ago, completely revolutionized our view of the universe and also remains a mystery? That would also be crazy, wouldn't it?

But those have demonstrable effects, and science is working to understand and explain them.

I'd be hesitant to compare that to telepathy.
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Old 5th September 2017, 07:17 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Instead of a new element, how about a new type of matter, that interacts weakly, massively outnumbers "regular" matter, and stubbornly refuses to be observed?
It doesn't refuse to be observed, though. It has a massive gravitational effect. How do you think we know about it? The search for dark matter is the search for the cause of real observations. Your telepathy has never been observed.

Your other examples are no less foolish. The aether was a model proposed to explain real phenomena. When it failed to do so, it was discarded in favor of other, better models. Your telepathy has no model, and explains no phenomena.

At every step, you mistake actual science for superstitious mumbo jumbo, and try to privilege actual mumbo jumbo by association.

In order for telepathy to exist, your unknown (unobserved, un-modelled) process has to interact with the known parts of the brain. All such interactions have been accounted for. No unknown processes have been observed. Checkmate, Fudbucker.
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Old 5th September 2017, 08:41 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It doesn't refuse to be observed, though. It has a massive gravitational effect. How do you think we know about it? The search for dark matter is the search for the cause of real observations. Your telepathy has never been observed.
Anecdotally, it certainly has. Anecdotes are weak forms of evidence, but reports of observation of X are usually taken as evidence of X's existence. (e.g., a report of an observation of cloudy skies is taken as evidence of actual cloudy skies, unless the person reporting is blind or a pathological liar). When you think about all the anecdotal reports we get from people throughout the day, we believe almost all of them. This is because they are trivial accounts that are hard to be mistaken about, and the person has no reason to lie. The more outlandish the claim, the greater the disbelief.

But what do you do with someone who is reliable and honest and reports an outlandish claim that would seemingly be impossible to be mistaken about, unless the person was suffering from some disorder? Do you automatically assume they're lying, or have an actual disorder? And if similar people report similar phenomena, does that make the existence of the phenomena more and or less likely? If one eyewitness reports the suspect looked like X,Y,Z, that's one thing. But if all thirty people at the scene report X,Y,Z, that's another.
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Old 5th September 2017, 08:45 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
But what do you do with someone who is reliable and honest and reports an outlandish claim that would seemingly be impossible to be mistaken about, unless the person was suffering from some disorder? Do you automatically assume they're lying, or have an actual disorder? And if similar people report similar phenomena, does that make the existence of the phenomena more and or less likely? If one eyewitness reports the suspect looked like X,Y,Z, that's one thing. But if all thirty people at the scene report X,Y,Z, that's another.

If they are reporting a 15 year old memory, I don't trust it much at all, regardless of how sincere or honest that person is. Without any sort of concrete documentation, it is almost completely unreliable, due to how memory works. Also, the person reporting it may be accurately reporting what they think happened, but it isn't necessarily what happened. For example, you may have 50 people report sighting a ghost, when upon closer examination, it turns out what they were seeing was a cow.

(Remind me to dig up the link to the post where that exact thing happened to a forum member.)
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Old 5th September 2017, 08:54 PM   #273
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It's very easy to be mistaken about telepathy. You just have to underestimate how likely coincidences are to occur, which is something almost everybody does. And, of course, believing that people can hear your thoughts is indeed a symptom of a common mental illness. So anecdotal reports of telepathy can be easily explained without positing its existence. Which is why you need more than anecdotal evidence before you start to seriously consider it to be a real phenomenon. Such additional evidence would be easy to obtain if it was a real phenomenon, yet is not. The conclusion is inescapable.
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Old 5th September 2017, 08:56 PM   #274
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Arguing about this is trivial, though. A real skeptic isn't wedded to any particular kind of reality. The reports from our senses are equally consistent with countless models of reality. Suppose this is all a simulation. Would it be any different than what we're experiencing now? How could we know the difference? We can't step outside our observations to look at the true nature of things- they just appear to us as they do. For what reason do we assume we're not in a simulation? There is no reason, and there are probabilistic arguments in favor of simulation-theory and serious people take them seriously- it's not a lunatic fringe. If we're in a simulation, then anything goes.

The simulators may want to simulate a world where reports of paranormal activity are true and simultaneously impossible to observe under controlled conditions. The motives of simulation-creators, if they exist, are impossible to determine. Even if they revealed themselves to us (spelled out "this is a simulation" with the stars one night), we still would have no reason to believe anything they say about their motives. It might be their motive to lie about everything, or lie about nothing, or some things.

This is why I'm not certain about anything. It doesn't have to be simulation-theory, either. Similar stories can be told assuming idealism, dualism, and theism. It's impossible to weigh the odds on any one being true.

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Old 5th September 2017, 09:00 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
If they are reporting a 15 year old memory, I don't trust it much at all, regardless of how sincere or honest that person is.

See, this is not true. If a group of thirty people all reported going to china together, 20 years ago, you would believe them. Why would you not? The odds that they're all lying, or mistaken about how long ago it was, or idiots, is too fantastical to take seriously.

The rest of your post continues in that vein.
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Old 5th September 2017, 09:15 PM   #276
Darat
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Instead of a new element, how about a new type of matter, that interacts weakly, massively outnumbers "regular" matter, and stubbornly refuses to be observed? That sounds crazy! And to top it off, how about an unknown type of energy that is 70% of the universe, discovered only 20 years ago, completely revolutionized our view of the universe and also remains a mystery? That would also be crazy, wouldn't it?
How is that relevant to claims of supernatural telepathy here on Earth?
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Old 5th September 2017, 09:33 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Anecdotally, it certainly has. Anecdotes are weak forms of evidence, but reports of observation of X are usually taken as evidence of X's existence.
No. Not "usually". Reports are accepted as true in situations where the claim is mundane or the stakes are low, or both. You're equivocating. Remember this anecdote? It wasn't taken as evidence. It was taken as a claim to be investigated, tested, and ultimately disproven. Or what about this anecdote? A claim. Tested. Investigated. Disproven.

Your telepathy doesn't even rise to the level of those anecdotes. Unlike the aether, it models no phenomena. Unlike dark matter and dark energy, it explains no observations--because there are none. In every case where claims of telepathy have been tested, no measurable effect has been observed. Your telepathy thrives only wherever it is not tested.
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Old 5th September 2017, 09:47 PM   #278
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
See, this is not true. If a group of thirty people all reported going to china together, 20 years ago, you would believe them. Why would you not?
Because the consilience of evidence is in their favor.

Quote:
The odds that they're all lying, or mistaken about how long ago it was, or idiots, is too fantastical to take seriously.
The odds that China doesn't really exist, and that people don't really go there? Yeah, pretty fantastical.

If telepathy were a real thing, that had actually been observed, and that actually had a wealth of evidence from multiple different sources spanning thousands of years, and thirty people told me they'd practiced it 20 years ago, I'd believe them, too. Why not?

I'll make you a deal: When you can show me as much evidence for telepathy as there exists for China, then I'll believe even a single anecdote, from someone who remembers practicing telepathy yesterday, without question.
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Old 5th September 2017, 11:06 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Look, I am a grad student. I could care less about full citations.
Holy crap
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Old 6th September 2017, 01:40 AM   #280
arthwollipot
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
King of the Americas:

Loss Leader has proposed a test, as you requested. Several people have suggested variants, but why don't you tell us if Loss Leader's idea works for you. Or if you'd like something a little different tell us the details of a test you'd like to do.
The problem with all the tests proposed, and the reason why none of them will be accepted, is that KotA knows that they are controlled sufficiently to rule out chance results, and that therefore they will be unable to demonstrate any telepathic ability.

Any of these tests ought to be easy to pass if telepathy is a real phenomenon. But if it is not, they will be extraordinarily difficult. That's the point. They are designed to interrogate reality.

If the phenomenon of telepathy exists, any one of these proposed tests will demonstrate it. None of them ever have in any of the times they have been tried in good faith.

But perhaps telepathy doesn't work in such a way that these tests will demonstrate it, despite being claimed in such a way by many people in the past. Perhaps all those people were simply wrong about how it works. Perhaps King of the Americas has a better way to demonstrate telepathy's reality. I for one would be eager to hear of such a demonstration.
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