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Old 11th February 2018, 11:01 PM   #2041
Samson
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There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.
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Old 12th February 2018, 01:06 AM   #2042
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Very good mediation.
I am short 8430, last 8368.
48 hours after original post is the price.

eta 11 hours 50 to run.
Now about 9 hours

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.
Just trying to get this clear, you're short at 8430 - for a fixed 48hr period - with several hours to go, but noted a 'buy' opportunity along the way? Why are you mentioning the latter?
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Old 12th February 2018, 02:31 AM   #2043
Samson
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Now about 9 hours



Just trying to get this clear, you're short at 8430 - for a fixed 48hr period - with several hours to go, but noted a 'buy' opportunity along the way? Why are you mentioning the latter?
Just to speed up the cogs in your brain.
I repeatedly point out that direction is the TA smart science.
If you can't sell at 8430. and take profit sometime during a descent to 7851, you are matching my inexpertise.
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Old 12th February 2018, 05:53 AM   #2044
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Deleted. Never mind
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Old 12th February 2018, 10:55 AM   #2045
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Originally Posted by Samson on 11th February 2018, 01:48 AM View Post
Another sell confirmed by the 2 hour chart.
8430 currently.
Expect 7400 in the next 2 days.
48 hours later, the price has fallen to ............ 8730!

Another chicken comes home to roost.

The price did manage to fall briefly to 7820 over the last couple of days so you can call this a victory if you don't want to be taken seriously.
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Old 12th February 2018, 11:52 AM   #2046
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.
The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.
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Old 12th February 2018, 01:13 PM   #2047
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.
If it wasn't missing everybody could become rich playing the markets, and in the case of assets generating no income it is surely simple to see why that can't happen. One person's profit comes from another person's loss. Therefore there is no possible source of information that will consistently produce profits and avoid losses. As I've pointed out before; even if a formula could be found, buyers and sellers would take account of its predictions in making their decisions, and that would invalidate the predictions yet again. If matters were otherwise, everyone could be like King Midas in the story.
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Old 12th February 2018, 02:06 PM   #2048
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.
8420 when I posted there was a buy signal in place, now 8863.

That is what I mean by direction. The lowest price since that post was 8374.

I am trying to be helpful and make usable forecasts.

Eta:
On platforms these days, on a basic smart phone it is possible to open and close a contract at a profit or loss in as little as a few seconds.
There were about 15 hours between the suggestion to go short at 8430 and the 6.8% decline to 7851. The highest price during this time was 8587.9, giving a profit/loss ratio of (8430-7851)/(8587.9-8430) or 3.66.

Of course sighon is going to dine out forever on the failure to go the full 12.2% decline to 7400 I predicted.

There might be a few real traders who would like a few more predictions of my style.

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Old 12th February 2018, 03:21 PM   #2049
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Yeah, really few.
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Old 12th February 2018, 04:37 PM   #2050
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
If it wasn't missing everybody could become rich playing the markets, and in the case of assets generating no income it is surely simple to see why that can't happen. One person's profit comes from another person's loss. Therefore there is no possible source of information that will consistently produce profits and avoid losses. As I've pointed out before; even if a formula could be found, buyers and sellers would take account of its predictions in making their decisions, and that would invalidate the predictions yet again. If matters were otherwise, everyone could be like King Midas in the story.
Well, yes, that's what I'm saying. Therefore, I don't think Technical Analysis is what Samson is making it out to be: A reliable method of predicting ups and downs that enables consistent, long-term profit.
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Old 12th February 2018, 04:56 PM   #2051
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
8420 when I posted there was a buy signal in place, now 8863.

That is what I mean by direction. The lowest price since that post was 8374.
OK. But what I'm getting at is that you predicted yesterday that 7400 was coming in two days and hinted at further drops than that. Then, in the midst of that same two-day window, you also said the model showed a buy signal. So is one supposed to be short until the 7400 hits but also be long when the buy signal hit? I will admit that if I had bought 1 bitcoin when you said buy, I could currently sell it for a small profit. But that profit would have been seriously dented by the short position you advocated a day before that. I can match the same +/- by simply guessing.

Honestly, from an outside perspective, it sounds like you are simply saying, "The price is going to go down and then up, so time your buys/sells-longs/shorts accordingly." Which is pretty much what I can come up with by simple guesses.

Quote:
I am trying to be helpful and make usable forecasts.
But surely you can see how "It's going to go down, short it. But it's also going up so buy it." isn't too helpful unless we know precisely when those events will happen.


Quote:
Eta:
On platforms these days, on a basic smart phone it is possible to open and close a contract at a profit or loss in as little as a few seconds.
There were about 15 hours between the suggestion to go short at 8430 and the 6.8% decline to 7851. The highest price during this time was 8587.9, giving a profit/loss ratio of (8430-7851)/(8587.9-8430) or 3.66.
Well, yes, but your prediction was 7400. If someone was waiting for that, how would they know that they should actually cash out at 7851? Would they even be able to if they had a 48 hour short contract?

Quote:
Of course sighon is going to dine out forever on the failure to go the full 12.2% decline to 7400 I predicted.
To be complete, you predicted 7400 and then doubled down with saying "the great plunge" was on the way. By any objective measure, those predictions did not come true. Now, inevitably, there will be a big plunge at some point given the volatility of bitcoin, just as there will be big rises. But, unless you can provide more precision, you can't claim a victory because you say, "12% decline in 48 hours" when in fact there was a rise when the 48 hour period was up.

Quote:
There might be a few real traders who would like a few more predictions of my style.
Maybe. But from what I can see so far, they would have similar luck analyzing the Daily Racing Form or attempting to predict the next numbers on a roulette wheel by analyzing which numbers are "hot" and "cold." I don't mean to be dismissive, I'm trying to objectively analyze the results you are obtaining.
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Old 12th February 2018, 05:12 PM   #2052
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Looking a little deeper, I see that some exchanges offer futures contracts but with a specified settlement date. The price is set (on CBOE) as of 4pm on the settlement date. And the contracts I can find are not mere days in duration. Which means that, no, you couldn't have sold the contract precisely at the time it hit the low.

I could be wrong so am ready to be corrected.
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Old 12th February 2018, 05:28 PM   #2053
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You can take a put option for let's say the end of March, 2018 with a strike price of $6,000. At any time after the put and before the end of the contract, if the price of BitCoin
drops to $6,000 or below you can sell your option.
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Old 12th February 2018, 07:00 PM   #2054
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Originally Posted by bytewizard View Post
You can take a put option for let's say the end of March, 2018 with a strike price of $6,000. At any time after the put and before the end of the contract, if the price of BitCoin
drops to $6,000 or below you can sell your option.


Ah, ok. Like I said, I知 not a sophisticated investor by any means so I知 learning as I go in this thread. As I understand, this is a pretty expensive proposition, yes? What would such a put option cost you?

Where I知 going with that: In Samson痴 example, his strike price would be 7400. It never reached that price, therefore it would expire worthless. If it expires, he loses what he paid for the put. How many such bets can he lose and will the winners profit enough to cover the losses?
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Old 13th February 2018, 12:57 AM   #2055
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Ah, ok. Like I said, I知 not a sophisticated investor by any means so I知 learning as I go in this thread. As I understand, this is a pretty expensive proposition, yes? What would such a put option cost you?

Where I知 going with that: In Samson痴 example, his strike price would be 7400. It never reached that price, therefore it would expire worthless. If it expires, he loses what he paid for the put. How many such bets can he lose and will the winners profit enough to cover the losses?
Well no, my profit take on a naked short futures position would have been 7400.
This is quite unrelated to options, which in this case are derivatives of derivatives.
It seems that my 7400 call is now an albatross around my neck. One day I hope to fix ye all with a glittering eye.
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Old 13th February 2018, 01:32 AM   #2056
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Opinion:

I think the recent bounce has peaked and the price will now fall further.

Statement:

I am amazed at how large the "industry" is that is using the cryptos as a means of making money. The pro-bitcoin "experts" are coming out of the wood-work trying to prop up the industry and the prices.

Question:
To Psion10. Where is all the (fiat) money coming from sustain all these enterprises, pay peoples salaries, buy equipment and pay rent and utility bills?

In my opinion:
From the late-comers and the hodlers.
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Old 13th February 2018, 02:35 AM   #2057
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Dammit.

I'm looking to buy or build a super powerful PC for video-editing and some components have doubled in price due to the crypto miners buying up all the high-end graphics cards.

NVIDEA's stock has shot up by 80% since early 2016.

Who made all the money in the gold rush again?
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Old 13th February 2018, 02:56 AM   #2058
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I don't think Bitcoin is as safe as the Bank of England.
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Old 13th February 2018, 03:14 AM   #2059
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Dammit.

I'm looking to buy or build a super powerful PC for video-editing and some components have doubled in price due to the crypto miners buying up all the high-end graphics cards.

NVIDEA's stock has shot up by 80% since early 2016.

Who made all the money in the gold rush again?
Is the world getting more complex?
Sure. but lately we have an insect show in New Zealand, don't mess with those micro titans.

https://www.aucklandzoo.co.nz/bug-lab

Seemingly off topic, but are these miners just very crude insects?
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Old 13th February 2018, 04:01 AM   #2060
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Bitcoin at 8473 right now, sell it with your ears pinned back.
I will tell you exactly when to take profit.
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Old 13th February 2018, 04:17 AM   #2061
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"Bitcoin energy use in Iceland set to overtake homes, says local firm"

Iceland is facing an "exponential" rise in Bitcoin mining that is gobbling up power resources...

http://www.bbc.o.uk/news/technology-43030677
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Old 13th February 2018, 04:34 AM   #2062
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Originally Posted by Worm View Post
"Bitcoin energy use in Iceland set to overtake homes, says local firm"

Iceland is facing an "exponential" rise in Bitcoin mining that is gobbling up power resources...

http://www.bbc.o.uk/news/technology-43030677
The link doesnt work here, but this raises a question I do not understand.

How do we continue to add and never delete from the cloud?
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Old 13th February 2018, 04:50 AM   #2063
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bitcoin at 8473 right now, sell it with your ears pinned back.
I will tell you exactly when to take profit.
Same old. "When" might be 3 a.m. local time on August 3rd, which is not much use. What we need are stop-loss and stop-win limits.
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Old 13th February 2018, 04:57 AM   #2064
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Same old. "When" might be 3 a.m. local time on August 3rd, which is not much use. What we need are stop-loss and stop-win limits.
Stop loss is 8744

Like all traders I find stops are magnets, but at least you are making sense.
I see no need to stake out a profit target after the last pitchforking by the villagers. As I said I will post it.
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Old 13th February 2018, 05:01 AM   #2065
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The link doesnt work here, but this raises a question I do not understand.
Apologies - I somehow nerfed a character out of the URL.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43030677
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Old 13th February 2018, 05:26 AM   #2066
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Dammit.

I'm looking to buy or build a super powerful PC for video-editing and some components have doubled in price due to the crypto miners buying up all the high-end graphics cards.

NVIDEA's stock has shot up by 80% since early 2016.

Who made all the money in the gold rush again?
ATI made even more. Their cards are not so popular because they always had more compatibility issues with new games. That's not a problem for mining.

But srsly .. who made all the money ? People who got into BTC when it was $100. True, they all did it to buy illegal goods online .. but they are super rich now.
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Old 13th February 2018, 08:55 AM   #2067
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
But srsly .. who made all the money ? People who got into BTC when it was $100. True, they all did it to buy illegal goods online .. but they are super rich now.
Who needs facts when you can just make them up?
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Old 13th February 2018, 09:36 AM   #2068
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
ATI made even more. Their cards are not so popular because they always had more compatibility issues with new games. That's not a problem for mining.

But srsly .. who made all the money ? People who got into BTC when it was $100. True, they all did it to buy illegal goods online .. but they are super rich now.
I don't think that's entirely fair. Many bought BTC because they thought it would revolutionize payment technology. Crypto still might, even if BTC isn't the ultimate token.

I do believe that at some point, no guess as to when, there will emerge a crypto token that is widely adopted. This is the key to any crypto's value. I got lucky with BTC but I didn't buy it to make money. I actually thought at the time that it would take a prominent place in online payment processing. That hasn't really happened yet (although its worth noting that Dish, Overstock and a few other online retailers take bitcoin as payment; there are bitcoin atms in Vegas!) but the market is still developing. The open question is: which token will gain wide adoption? Given that there are about 1300+ cryptos out there, it's way too early to make a guess.

In the meantime, my interest now piqued, I've bought a few upcoming cryptos for really cheap: Electroneum is the one I think is most interesting given the project's ambitions. I bought 300 ETN for right around $.05. Let's see what happens!
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Old 13th February 2018, 10:05 AM   #2069
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
I don't think that's entirely fair. Many bought BTC because they thought it would revolutionize payment technology. Crypto still might, even if BTC isn't the ultimate token.
Sure, I was just joking. But those people made serious gains. One guy here got 1BTC in 2011 as a donation for movie review. Wasn't even $10 back then.
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Old 13th February 2018, 10:44 AM   #2070
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
(snip).

In the meantime, my interest now piqued, I've bought a few upcoming cryptos for really cheap: Electroneum is the one I think is most interesting given the project's ambitions. I bought 300 ETN for right around $.05. Let's see what happens!

For the exchanges who need the income every cent counts.

Remember the programmer who made a ton of money by rounding transactions down to the nearest cent and then putting the fraction into his bank account?
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Old 13th February 2018, 10:45 AM   #2071
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Stop loss is 8744

Like all traders I find stops are magnets, but at least you are making sense.
I see no need to stake out a profit target after the last pitchforking by the villagers. As I said I will post it.
A bit of a modestly rollercoaster day so far, but currently up ~100 on your 'sell' mark. But tell me - if you judge that it isn't looking good, will you take credit for a 20 point profit on the trade? Given the 270 point stop-loss you suggested, I mean. Risk/reward, and all that.
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Old 13th February 2018, 11:36 AM   #2072
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So it's $8600 now, you guys still confident on your predictions for when it goes below $1000? March 1st for Dr Sid i think, April was another one I believe, and Partskeptic under $1000 by April 1st.
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Old 13th February 2018, 01:16 PM   #2073
xjx388
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
For the exchanges who need the income every cent counts.

Remember the programmer who made a ton of money by rounding transactions down to the nearest cent and then putting the fraction into his bank account?
You mean Gus Gorman, programmer extraordinaire from Superman III?

The thing is, I have 300 ETN. If the value ever rises, I can cash it in. If the currency gains wide adoption, I can use it to buy things. Sure, if it disappears tomorrow, then someone got my $15. But the same thing could have been said to the people who bought BTC for pennies back in 2011.

It's a gamble but a cheap and low-risk one; I could cash it in right now if I wanted to (the price is currently hovering around $.07). I'm thinking I will just hold it for awhile and cross my fingers.
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Old 13th February 2018, 03:06 PM   #2074
Samson
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Stop loss is 8744

Like all traders I find stops are magnets, but at least you are making sense.
I see no need to stake out a profit target after the last pitchforking by the villagers. As I said I will post it.
It got to 8737.
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Old 13th February 2018, 03:20 PM   #2075
Eddie Dane
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
You mean Gus Gorman, programmer extraordinaire from Superman III?

The thing is, I have 300 ETN. If the value ever rises, I can cash it in. If the currency gains wide adoption, I can use it to buy things. Sure, if it disappears tomorrow, then someone got my $15. But the same thing could have been said to the people who bought BTC for pennies back in 2011.

It's a gamble but a cheap and low-risk one; I could cash it in right now if I wanted to (the price is currently hovering around $.07). I'm thinking I will just hold it for awhile and cross my fingers.
I've been thinking the same thing. I might buy a basket of promising altcoins.

At least this way it's fun. Spending thousands on something that's already in a bubble and being recommended by halfwits on Instagram is not fun. That's sleepless nights.
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Old 13th February 2018, 03:55 PM   #2076
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Sure BTC is deflating now, but it also has lot to do with remarks about crypto regulations. Sure, they can't stop it. But they can make it illegal, and stop the exchanges. And that would affect altcoins too.
There are yet unseen consequences of cryptos and BTC. For example some say North Korea is using BTC to circumvent sanctions, and as they were mining it for years, they had lot of it .. so they made incredible money. All their current nuclear program might be financed by BTC alone.
But then you don't really have to invest much.
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Old 13th February 2018, 08:25 PM   #2077
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
For example some say North Korea is using BTC to circumvent sanctions, and as they were mining it for years, they had lot of it .. so they made incredible money. All their current nuclear program might be financed by BTC alone.
Who is saying that (other than you)?
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Old 13th February 2018, 08:50 PM   #2078
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Originally Posted by rayheno View Post
So it's $8600 now, you guys still confident on your predictions for when it goes below $1000? March 1st for Dr Sid i think, April was another one I believe, and Partskeptic under $1000 by April 1st.

I am. Although I am now glad that I chose a later date. There are some serious forces trying to keep this thing afloat.

There will should come a point when it starts to drop steeply. The point when the forces slink into the night and take the money with them.
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Old 13th February 2018, 08:56 PM   #2079
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
You mean Gus Gorman, programmer extraordinaire from Superman III?

The thing is, I have 300 ETN. If the value ever rises, I can cash it in. If the currency gains wide adoption, I can use it to buy things. Sure, if it disappears tomorrow, then someone got my $15. But the same thing could have been said to the people who bought BTC for pennies back in 2011.

It's a gamble but a cheap and low-risk one; I could cash it in right now if I wanted to (the price is currently hovering around $.07). I'm thinking I will just hold it for awhile and cross my fingers.

Not Gus but some real life guy.

You are late into the crypto scheme. But this is what is keeping the 1400+ cyptos going. Hope springs eternal.

Take note that you are simply betting (speculating) that the price will rise. Why? Because so many others are doing the same? Did you evaluate the functionality or the technology or the use in society? I doubt it. Probably picked a name you like.
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Old 13th February 2018, 08:57 PM   #2080
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I'm confident (not rly). If I have to, I will invest $100. That shoul be enough for the price to plummet.
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