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Old 21st May 2020, 09:31 AM   #561
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
For a moment putting to one side the technical picture
Probably a good idea, considering.

Quote:
There is an infinite supply of digital money.
It is a matter of time to patiently watch infinite supply catastrophically atrophy demand.
There is an infinite supply of non-digital currency. When, exactly, will the USD be reaching catastrophic atrophy?
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Old 21st May 2020, 11:21 AM   #562
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
There is an infinite supply of non-digital currency.
Not true. The supply of USD is limited by the government and political will. The government can't get away with 'printing money' without the approval of the people, whereas anyone can make a cryptocurrency and nobody cares. That's how Bitcoin came to be.

But as a currency Bitcoin is a failure. It has become a 'virtual' commodity, ie. like gold but with no physical existence. Also unlike gold, Bitcoin could be destroyed simply by people losing interest in it - which is quite possible because the only interest most people have in it is speculation. If the bottom dropped out of the gold market it would still have value for jewelry and electronics etc., but for Bitcoin the bottom is zero, which will probably happen one day (when the speculators find something else more interesting).

Quote:
When, exactly, will the USD be reaching catastrophic atrophy?
We don't know what the future will bring, but it has happened to many other currencies in the past. Perhaps one day the USD will be replaced with a digital currency, but it won't be Bitcoin.

List of 'Modern' Obsolete Currencies
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:40 AM   #563
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Other than the highlighted, I can't make any sense out of this word salad.

You seem to insist that if you divide a finite crypto market by infinite cryptos, you get $0 per crypto.

That just illustrates your abysmal maths. Consider the sequence {1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16, . . . }: This has an infinite number of terms and a finite sum but many of the terms are an appreciable fraction of the total (not zero).

The same is true of cryptos. No matter how many are invented, most will not amount to anything and won't drag money away from the top cryptos.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I accept that zero is an unrealistic valuation, but that is all.
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I wish I could believe that but no doubt, you will soon go back to your "there are infinite bitcoins so bitcoins have no value" line again as if this exchange never happened.
No doubt, Samson was hoping that after all this time, the exchange will have been forgotten so that he could again rabbit on abou "infinite supply of digital money" as if it had never been discussed again.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
For a moment putting to one side the technical picture, the fundamentals never change.
There is an infinite supply of digital money.
It is a matter of time to patiently watch infinite supply catastrophically atrophy demand.

Rat poison .
Nailled It!!!
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:14 PM   #564
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I suggest going long rat poison, useful, designed for a purpose and yields results, and short bitcoin, useless and a disgraceful energy guzzling scam designed with good intent but fueling pure greed.
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:27 PM   #565
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Crashing now. 8660
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Old 25th May 2020, 08:49 AM   #566
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Crashing now. Minor fluctuation. 8660
ftfy.
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Old 25th May 2020, 04:39 PM   #567
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Crashing now. 8660
$8977 at 2pm today. If you bought at $8660 yesterday and sold at $8977 today that's just over $300 profit per coin. If you're day trading with 10 coins that's $3000.00. Not a bad return for one day. Math is good.

Chris B.
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Old 25th May 2020, 08:46 PM   #568
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
$8977 at 2pm today. If you bought at $8660 yesterday and sold at $8977 today that's just over $300 profit per coin. If you're day trading with 10 coins that's $3000.00. Not a bad return for one day. Math is good.
There are plenty of times when if you bought bitcoin immediately after a small price drop, the price continued to fall and you would be lucky to eventually get your money back.

You haven't hit on a magic day trading pattern.
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Old 26th May 2020, 05:02 AM   #569
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
$8977 at 2pm today. If you bought at $8660 yesterday and sold at $8977 today that's just over $300 profit per coin. If you're day trading with 10 coins that's $3000.00. Not a bad return for one day. Math is good.

Chris B.
I thought bitcoin was designed to make buying a pizza fast and efficient.
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Old 26th May 2020, 06:38 AM   #570
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I thought bitcoin was designed to make buying a pizza fast and efficient.
I think it was made to make few people incredibly rich.
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Old 26th May 2020, 07:55 AM   #571
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
There are plenty of times when if you bought bitcoin immediately after a small price drop, the price continued to fall and you would be lucky to eventually get your money back.

You haven't hit on a magic day trading pattern.
Last year I bought back in at $1000 less than I sold. But, I missed the bottom by a couple of thousand dollars. And yes that was unfortunate and bad luck on my part. But I'm not greedy and I held those coins for a few months, the price increased and I eventually made a nice profit when they were sold. It's here in the thread somewhere.

Nobody has claimed day trading is magic. When BTC is running sideways it's easy to make at least $100 per coin/day. This is not a new strategy nor is it a life changing monetary gain, those happen when BTC doubles over a short period as it did again recently.

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Old 30th May 2020, 06:49 PM   #572
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Last year I bought back in at $1000 less than I sold. But, I missed the bottom by a couple of thousand dollars. And yes that was unfortunate and bad luck on my part. But I'm not greedy
Yes you are. A not greedy person would go out and make or do something that has real value, not try to make money out of nothing.

Originally Posted by Samson
I thought bitcoin was designed to make buying a pizza fast and efficient.
You might have thought that this 'black swan' event we are suffering would be a prime opportunity for Bitcoin to show its worth. In reality it is virtually absent. Current average Bitcoin transaction confirmation time is 10.67 minutes, and almost no businesses take it. Hardly fast or efficient.

Meanwhile my new 'contactless' credit card is doing a superb job. All my accounts on one card, easily controlled via Internet banking, and totally virus free! If only Bitcoin had achieved its stated goal, it could have been the 'killer' app we all need now for safety and convenience. But it has missed the boat. And it only had 11 years to make it!
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Old 30th May 2020, 11:52 PM   #573
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Yes you are. A not greedy person would go out and make or do something that has real value, not try to make money out of nothing.
Making money from money (if bitcoin be money) may be seen as "immoral" on religious grounds but it is common place (think of retirement funds) and in no way labels everybody who does so "greedy"

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
You might have thought that this 'black swan' event we are suffering would be a prime opportunity for Bitcoin to show its worth. In reality it is virtually absent.
I pointed out that bitcoin no longer picks up when the rest of the market is down months ago.
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Old 31st May 2020, 05:34 AM   #574
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Yes you are. A not greedy person would go out and make or do something that has real value, not try to make money out of nothing.
XD
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Old 31st May 2020, 05:28 PM   #575
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Yes you are. A not greedy person would go out and make or do something that has real value, not try to make money out of nothing.

*snipped*
BTC is great for the economy. New homes are being made possible by BTC profits. That money provides jobs, purchases products and building materials, pays realtors etc. Every American should own BTC, there needs to be a law.

Chris B.
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Old 1st June 2020, 03:36 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
BTC is great for the economy. New homes are being made possible by BTC profits. That money provides jobs, purchases products and building materials, pays realtors etc. Every American should own BTC, there needs to be a law.

Chris B.
My research suggests bitcoin is mainly mined in China, but in fairness the hydro is too remote to empower industry or people.
It is a sickness of surplus environmental wealth. I bet it could be diverted to create enduring habitat for giant pandas, but that would be pointless when global warming hunts them to higher and inhabitable ground.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:27 PM   #577
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‘Avocado prices indicated sell signal for Bitcoin in early March’

Satoshi Nakaboto: ‘Avocado prices indicated sell signal for Bitcoin in early March’

Update 9th June 2020

Quote:
Our robot colleague Satoshi Nakaboto writes about Bitcoin $BTC every ******* day.

Bitcoin price

We closed the day, June 08 2020, at a price of $9,771. That’s a minor 0.11 percent increase in 24 hours, or $11. It was the highest closing price in three days.

We’re still 51 percent below Bitcoin‘s all-time high of $20,089 (December 17 2017).
Quote:
Bitcoin’s path towards $1 million

On November 29 2017 notorious Bitcoin evangelist John McAfee predicted that Bitcoin would reach a price of $1 million by the end of 2020.

He even promised to eat his own dick if it doesn’t. Unfortunately for him it’s 97.3 percent behind being on track. Bitcoin‘s price should have been $369,786 by now, according to dickline.info.
Quote:
Bitcoin Energy Consumption

Bitcoin used an estimated 161 million kilowatt hour of electricity yesterday. On a yearly basis that would amount to 58 terawatt hour. That’s the equivalent of Israel’s energy consumption or 5.4 million US households. Bitcoin’s energy consumption now represents 0.26% of the whole world’s electricity use.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:44 PM   #578
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I bet it could be diverted to create enduring habitat for giant pandas, but that would be pointless when global warming hunts them to higher and inhabitable ground.
Or even for humans.

I am trying to do my bit with an electric car. Lately I have also been biking and walking more to save even more energy (and keep fit). But with the opening up it's not so pleasant now. The noise and the smell of gas cars racing around the city is quite obnoxious, and I wish we were back in full lockdown. Will we just go back to destroying the environment so we can buy more stuff?

I was walking back from the local electronics store yesterday, dodging cars and trying to avoid the fumes - when I realized that a time may come when I will welcome leaving this world.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:58 PM   #579
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Quote:
Bitcoin’s energy consumption now represents 0.26% of the whole world’s electricity use.
To put that in perspective, Bitcoin volume is ~0.2% of the volume of Global FX spot markets. That means if all the markets switched to using Bitcoin, it would use up more than 100% of total World electricity production!
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File Type: jpg bitcoin volume June 2020.jpg (16.1 KB, 3 views)
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Old 9th June 2020, 04:10 PM   #580
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
To put that in perspective, Bitcoin volume is ~0.2% of the volume of Global FX spot markets. That means if all the markets switched to using Bitcoin, it would use up more than 100% of total World electricity production!
Would be funny if THAT was the reason the BTC is outlawed, thus losing most of its value.
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Old 11th June 2020, 11:05 PM   #581
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Or even for humans.

I am trying to do my bit with an electric car. Lately I have also been biking and walking more to save even more energy (and keep fit). But with the opening up it's not so pleasant now. The noise and the smell of gas cars racing around the city is quite obnoxious, and I wish we were back in full lockdown. Will we just go back to destroying the environment so we can buy more stuff?

I was walking back from the local electronics store yesterday, dodging cars and trying to avoid the fumes - when I realized that a time may come when I will welcome leaving this world.
Unless you have your own solar panels, that electric car runs on coal and natural gas. (Some of those fumes you were breathing in.)

I can't speak for overseas mining operations but in the US most BTC miners have widely adopted solar power as a means to power their operations. BTC mining is likely a healthy part of new large scale solar installations here. Without the addition of solar power, BTC mining is not profitable here.

Nothing better for the environment than turning sunshine into money. I suppose miners do sell some of their excess solar electricity for charging electric cars etc...

Chris B.
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Old 14th June 2020, 01:47 PM   #582
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I can't speak for overseas mining operations but in the US most BTC miners have widely adopted solar power as a means to power their operations.
Evidence?

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Nothing better for the environment than turning sunshine into money. I suppose miners do sell some of their excess solar electricity for charging electric cars etc...
One thing that would be better for the environment would be using that sunshine to reduce the demand for electricity so that those coal and natural gas plants wouldn't have to produce as much.
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Old 14th June 2020, 08:23 PM   #583
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
Evidence?



One thing that would be better for the environment would be using that sunshine to reduce the demand for electricity so that those coal and natural gas plants wouldn't have to produce as much.
I agree.
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Old 14th June 2020, 09:34 PM   #584
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
Evidence?



One thing that would be better for the environment would be using that sunshine to reduce the demand for electricity so that those coal and natural gas plants wouldn't have to produce as much.
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-min...g-to-the-grid/

I use solar as well. Originally it was to save money on the electric bill but later after I discovered the added benefit of offsetting mining costs 2013-14, I added more panels and a 2nd location.

Solar is cheap at the moment. You can find 250 watt panels used for less than $50 each in the US. If you have your own property it's foolish not to have a few panels installed. Return on investment is very quick.

Chris B.
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Old 14th June 2020, 10:15 PM   #585
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-min...g-to-the-grid/

I use solar as well. Originally it was to save money on the electric bill but later after I discovered the added benefit of offsetting mining costs 2013-14, I added more panels and a 2nd location.

Solar is cheap at the moment. You can find 250 watt panels used for less than $50 each in the US. If you have your own property it's foolish not to have a few panels installed. Return on investment is very quick.

Chris B.
I think you are missing the point. The solar electricity that you use to mine for bitcoins is solar electricity that is not being exported to the grid.

The excess solar electricity generated by households can do much to reduce the generating requirements of the power companies but not if householders keep that electricity to mine for bitcoins.
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Old 14th June 2020, 11:13 PM   #586
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The excess solar electricity generated by households can do much to reduce the generating requirements of the power companies but not if householders keep that electricity to mine for bitcoins.
Most 'renewable energy' Bitcoins are mined in China, the biggest producer of greenhouse gasses in the World. China is installing more solar and nuclear, but in the mean time they are burning coal. So every kWh of renewable energy diverted to mining Bitcoin there is directly contributing to pollution.

Bitcoiners could 'greenwash' their hobby by producing enough solar power to compensate, but only if they live in China or stop buying Chinese made goods. Economically it doesn't make sense though. Better to just use the electricity to lower your power bill and sell the excess. More efficient and a much more stable income!
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Old 14th June 2020, 11:41 PM   #587
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Better to just use the electricity to lower your power bill and sell the excess.
Not where my local power company is concerned. They pay me 7c per unit for my excess electricity and sell it to my next door neighbour for 28c per unit! Then they have the nerve to say that they are "subsidizing" me because I don't buy as much of their electricity any more.

That's why I have recently installed batteries. I'm keeping my solar electricity to myself.
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Old 15th June 2020, 12:04 AM   #588
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Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.

That is why Buffet and Munger see rat poison.
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Old 15th June 2020, 01:27 AM   #589
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.

That is why Buffet and Munger see rat poison.
That would be great! Fewer miners means the difficulty will drop again.

Buffet lost billions on oil stocks. I wouldn't ask him advice on how to cross the street.

Chris B.
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Old 15th June 2020, 01:45 AM   #590
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.
I can't find any reliable data on how much electricity is currently needed to mine a bitcoin on average so your figure for "production cost" is about as reliable as your predictions of future bitcoin prices - ZERO.
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Old 15th June 2020, 10:56 AM   #591
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Not where my local power company is concerned. They pay me 7c per unit for my excess electricity and sell it to my next door neighbour for 28c per unit! Then they have the nerve to say that they are "subsidizing" me because I don't buy as much of their electricity any more.

That's why I have recently installed batteries. I'm keeping my solar electricity to myself.
The batteries are a smart move. Did you go with lead acid or lithium?

My electric company does not "buy" any extra power I produce. They allow me "credits" toward my next bill if there is an excess. I check the meter near the end of the month and either activate or deactivate miners.

I have read and watched videos of horror stories about local utilities in different states doing funny things with solar power producers. One area, the utility company was paying the solar producer .02 per KWH and selling it back to him at .12 per KWH. His solar power went out to the electric company thru one meter and his shop purchased electricity thru a seperate meter. He was outraged! I would have been too.

I think he did correct the situation with some rewiring of loads. It was an EV conversion shop guy on youtube. I think he is in Missouri, I can't remember the details but it's worth a watch if you do a little searching. Funny guy!

Chris B.
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Old 15th June 2020, 02:38 PM   #592
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I check the meter near the end of the month and either activate or deactivate miners
So you mine your own Bitcoins? How many miners do you have, and how many Bitcoins do you make per year?
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Old 15th June 2020, 03:01 PM   #593
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I can't find any reliable data on how much electricity is currently needed to mine a bitcoin on average so your figure for "production cost" is about as reliable as your predictions of future bitcoin prices - ZERO.
Weasel words and an invalid conclusion.

Why The Actual Cost Of Mining Bitcoin Can Leave It Vulnerable To A Deep Correction
Quote:
Bitcoin has become more affordable to mine in recent weeks due to two main factors: difficulty adjustments and cheaper electricity in Sichuan, China due to the rainy season...

With $0.04/kwh, miners based in China said that the breakeven cost to mine Bitcoin hovers in the $5,000 to $6,000 range.

Even individual miners running commercial mining equipment like the Antminer S9 is operating at a breakeven cost of $8,206.

To be completely accurate: Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is $8206.64. Meaning its still profitable,” one miner said.
Like any commodity, the price of Bitcoin tends to stabilize around the total cost of production. If production costs go up then the price must also go up (until it becomes so expensive that people move to other alternatives). If costs go down then the price can also go down.

Of course this only applies if the product has perceived value. One day Bitcoin may become redundant for one reason or another (eg. 'investors' move on to something with better returns, or a better technology eclipses it) and then the price could crash to ZERO because unlike physical commodities like gold it has virtually no aesthetic appeal.
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Old 15th June 2020, 03:08 PM   #594
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Weasel words and an invalid conclusion.

Why The Actual Cost Of Mining Bitcoin Can Leave It Vulnerable To A Deep Correction

Like any commodity, the price of Bitcoin tends to stabilize around the total cost of production. If production costs go up then the price must also go up (until it becomes so expensive that people move to other alternatives). If costs go down then the price can also go down.

Of course this only applies if the product has perceived value. One day Bitcoin may become redundant for one reason or another (eg. 'investors' move on to something with better returns, or a better technology eclipses it) and then the price could crash to ZERO because unlike physical commodities like gold it has virtually no aesthetic appeal.
Why ZERO ? Even without investors, bitcoin can be still used to buy child pornography and drugs or finance terrorism. That's certainly non-zero volume market.
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Old 15th June 2020, 10:14 PM   #595
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The estimated cost to mine a bitcoin varies from web site to web site.

It should be so simple. Given the estimated total average power being used globally to mine for bitcoins, you multiply that by 1/6 hours and divide by 6.25 bitcoins to get the number of KWh needed to mine a single bitcoin.

But do you think that any web site will give you raw data like that? No. All you get is pre-digested conclusions.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Like any commodity, the price of Bitcoin tends to stabilize around the total cost of production. If production costs go up then the price must also go up (until it becomes so expensive that people move to other alternatives). If costs go down then the price can also go down.
You are making this efficient market hypothesis backwards. The cost of mining bitcoin depends on the price of bitcoin (or its perceived long term price). If the price of bitcoin rises then more miners will find it profitable to join the fray thus pushing up the production cost and if the price of bitcoin falls then some existing miners will find that producing bitcoin is unprofitable and drop out thus lowering the production cost for other miners.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Of course this only applies if the product has perceived value. One day Bitcoin may become redundant for one reason or another (eg. 'investors' move on to something with better returns, or a better technology eclipses it) and then the price could crash to ZERO because unlike physical commodities like gold it has virtually no aesthetic appeal.
Weasel words and an invalid conclusion.
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Old 16th June 2020, 03:43 AM   #596
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
The batteries are a smart move. Did you go with lead acid or lithium?
I use lithium batteries. They can be discharged down to 10% without damage. The batteries include some smart electronics that determines the optimum mix of battery and grid electricity when the sun isn't shining. It also includes sophisticated online monitoring of the state of the system.

So far, I have 5.8 Kwh of storage. It is barely enough to last a long (by Australian standards) winter's night if no heavy duty appliances are switched on and the batteries got enough sunlight to fully charge. I will monitor the system for a year and then decide if additional batteries are warranted.
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Old 17th June 2020, 06:48 AM   #597
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It is nice to see a developing technical picture that accords with common sense, infinite supply leads to zero value.
A gold bar can be used for self defence but a website that unexpectedly disappears without recourse is an alluring idea for the anti avarice disciples still straggling to keep up.
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Old 17th June 2020, 07:03 AM   #598
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
It is nice to see a developing technical picture that accords with common sense, infinite supply leads to zero value.
A gold bar can be used for self defence but a website that unexpectedly disappears without recourse is an alluring idea for the anti avarice disciples still straggling to keep up.
Bitcoin is not 'a website that unexpectedly disappears'
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Old 17th June 2020, 08:03 AM   #599
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Why ZERO ? Even without investors, bitcoin can be still used to buy child pornography and drugs or finance terrorism. That's certainly non-zero volume market.
But does this create enough demand to keep the miners going to support the block chain to keep it going? My understanding was that the miners provided the infrastructure needed to keep bitcoin working, and so if mining is not profitable who will keep it all going at a loss for the drug runners and terrorists?
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Old 17th June 2020, 09:07 AM   #600
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
But does this create enough demand to keep the miners going to support the block chain to keep it going? My understanding was that the miners provided the infrastructure needed to keep bitcoin working, and so if mining is not profitable who will keep it all going at a loss for the drug runners and terrorists?
You clearly don't understand the algorithm.

The mining difficulty adjusts to keep the block generation rate constant. If the vast majority of miners said "**** it" and quit, the mining difficulty would become so easy that it would still be profitable for the remaining miners even it the price collapsed to a small fraction of its current value. How do you think that bitcoin grew in those early years when the price was virtually nil?
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