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Old 17th May 2020, 11:24 AM   #641
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
New Zealand is functionally covid free yet the restaurants are open and deserted.
It will take a little time, but if we get another fortnight of zero cases, people will start to go out again.

The only industry truly screwed in NZ is tourism, and even that won't disappear completely, with lots of Kiwis wanting to take a break within the country and not have to compete with squillions of tourists.
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Old 17th May 2020, 12:47 PM   #642
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It will take a little time, but if we get another fortnight of zero cases, people will start to go out again.

The only industry truly screwed in NZ is tourism, and even that won't disappear completely, with lots of Kiwis wanting to take a break within the country and not have to compete with squillions of tourists.

I heard someone (Peter Dutton?) about a week ago saying the Australian Immigration Department officials are looking into easing travel restrictions, or lat least NZ first.
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Old 17th May 2020, 12:50 PM   #643
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Black Swan Event Under Way

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
To be fair, typical investors also hold on to things, including stocks, long after they ought to realize that they are overvalued.

Eugene Fama got the economics Nobel prize for research quantifying that tendency.

A truly rational and well informed investor would recognize when economic or business conditions have changed, resulting in a company's real value changing, and they would sell shares until the price dropped to the new, more realistic, value that reflected current economic conditions. However, that doesn't happen. People tend to overvalue things that they already own. When applied to stocks, that means people tend to stick with a stock that they already own, even when it ought to be apparent that the true value of the company has dropped, which ought to make the stock price drop.

The result is that when something bad happens to a company, or in the current case to a whole lot of companies simultaneously, there tends to be a delay between the bad thing happening and the drop in stock price that the bad thing causes.

ETA: That still doesn't mean that I know whether current stock prices are overvalued. For companies that do not go bankrupt, many will recover, so their current really bad year shouldn't mean that their stock prices ought to reflect this year's awful performance.

Were you replying to me, because you shouldn't have. I wasn't talking about typical investors.
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Old 17th May 2020, 01:02 PM   #644
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Were you replying to me, because you shouldn't have. I wasn't talking about typical investors.
I know.

You were saying what calm and rational investors do. I was saying that typical investors also do the same thing. The difference is that a calm and rational investor will look at the inherent value of the company, and will not panic and sell when the price goes down. A typical investor will hold onto a stock when the price goes down, waiting for it to come back up, even if the fundamentals of the stock strongly suggest that it will never come back up, or at the very least, will take so long to come back that there are other, better, investments that could be made.

In other words, and this was the primary result of Fama's research, people tend to overvalue stocks that they already own. They tend not to look at their stocks rationally. So, people who "buy and hold", might be calm, rational investors who know that a given stock is currently undervalued, and they should hold onto it, but they also might be typical investors who overvalue what they have in their possession, and hold onto their stocks, ignoring the signs that the company is not as valuable as it once was, or that it once was believed to be.
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Old 17th May 2020, 01:09 PM   #645
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I heard someone (Peter Dutton?) about a week ago saying the Australian Immigration Department officials are looking into easing travel restrictions, or lat least NZ first.
Yep, a potential trans-Tasman bubble is in play - both Cindy & Morrison are pretty keen.

As are all the skifield owners & operators, with only a month until opening day.
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Old 17th May 2020, 11:16 PM   #646
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The Atheist, and there's Queensland and Victoria fighting over Virgin Airlines' home state, plus Qantas hanging on and putting on more flights last week from the UK.

Meadmaker, that's good. I was alluding to Warren Buffet and contrarian investing.
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Old 18th May 2020, 12:40 AM   #647
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, a potential trans-Tasman bubble is in play - both Cindy & Morrison are pretty keen.

As are all the skifield owners & operators, with only a month until opening day.
Agreed. Once there are direct flights all the Australians that want to do an overseas holiday will visit New Zealand. The only competition would be a domestic holiday. Not sure this will compensate for the loss of American and European tourists. Also I think tourists will not want to visit in winter so in spring New Zealand will start to get heaps of tourists from Australia.

Australia's tourist industry will not earn much international currency. The operators will be ok as they will get a lot of domestic tourists, but hardly any international ones.
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:50 AM   #648
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
The Atheist, and there's Queensland and Victoria fighting over Virgin Airlines' home state, plus Qantas hanging on and putting on more flights last week from the UK.
There's a sensible plan - almost like having had very few domestic cases, it's time to import some.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Also I think tourists will not want to visit in winter so in spring New Zealand will start to get heaps of tourists from Australia..
I really don't know, but I suspect the travel bug might mean a fair few do. Obviously, skiers will flock in, but that's not going to be any increase on a normal winter. I think the top half of North Island, where there's plenty for tourists to do and it's not that cold, might work out ok.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 01:00 AM   #649
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's a sensible plan - almost like having had very few domestic cases, it's time to import some.
There's a 2 week quarantine period, at least.

I've seen that on other international flights into other countries from other countries.
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Old 29th May 2020, 01:09 AM   #650
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I believe black swan draws blood from here.
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Old 29th May 2020, 03:20 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I believe black swan draws blood from here.
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Also black swan contingency plans.
(For posterity.)
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Old 5th June 2020, 01:23 AM   #652
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I think I already mentioned on this thread that I started saving £300 a month in a stocks and shares ISA three years ago. I considered cashing it in in February when the likely extent of the "black swan event" became apparent but I'm unlikely to need the money for quite a few years, and interest rates on cash savings are currently negligable, so I decided to continue investing and hope that losses in the short term will be made up in the long term.

I record a snapshot of the values of the 12 funds I'm invested in when I log in once a month to invest another £300 and I thought it might be interesting to record how the ISA is doing here at the same time, and see if that turns out to be the wrong decision. The portfolio is mostly trackers, plus a couple of riskier funds.

I use the percentage difference between the amount I've invested and the total current value to monitor the health of the ISA, so I've tabulated the quarterly values of that from the first anniversary up to February, and the monthly values since. I'll add a new line to the table each month.

Date% +/-
5.181.3
8.183.4
11.18-3.1
2.19-0.8
5.191.9
8.197.4
11.196.6
2.2010.3
3.203.7
4.20-4.9
5.200.3

As you can see the value has been up and down quite a bit in the three years I've been investing, but it was doing reasonably well when the black swan flew in (that 10.3% increase in February was the highest it's ever been). It plunged over the next few weeks but has since recovered a bit and at the last update was slightly more than the amount I invested. The next update will be around the 10th, so tune in next week for the next exciting installment. Alternatively tell me you're not the slightest bit interested in my little ISA and I'll shut up.
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Old 5th June 2020, 03:29 PM   #653
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A bit odd, what are you invested in anyway? March was an awful month for equities and yet you had a 3% gain so you must have been in something else that was hedged against that decline.

Odd now that the stock market is almost back to pre-corona levels now (S&P 3,193.93 now vs S&P 3,386.15 at the peak). It only has to climb around 5% to regain all lost ground.

Weird given the situation with the rest of the economy.
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Old 5th June 2020, 04:29 PM   #654
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
Odd now that the stock market is almost back to pre-corona levels now (S&P 3,193.93 now vs S&P 3,386.15 at the peak). It only has to climb around 5% to regain all lost ground.
Odd or just the result of $5T thrown at the economy?

The fundamentals were weak at the start of the crash, and with a recession firmly under way, earnings & profits will decrease, so it's even more over-valued now.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:31 PM   #655
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
A bit odd, what are you invested in anyway?
These are the 12 funds I've invested in:

Baring Europe Select Class I
Blackrock Balanced Growth Portfolio
Blackrock Emerging Markets
iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index
Legal & General All Stocks Gilt Index
Legal & General European Index Class C
Legal & General Global Inflation Lnk Bond
Legal & General International Index
Schroder Managed Balanced (Class I)
Threadneedle European Select
Threadneedle UK Equity Income
TM CRUX European Special Situations

I've got £300 invested in one and about £1200 in three, the rest about £900. [I say about because of course charges nibble away at my £300, so some months I only have £290 to invest]. I stopped at 12 funds as I thought that gave me a sufficiently diversified portfolio. I might add some more as time goes on.

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March was an awful month for equities and yet you had a 3% gain so you must have been in something else that was hedged against that decline.
They certainly vary a lot, a couple are currently over 10% up whilst another couple are 15% down. In total I've paid in £11100 so far and the value on 10th May was £11129. So as of that moment I would certainly have done better to just leave those £300s in my bank account, which is currently paying 1% pa on balances of up to £20000 (though that's about to go down to 0.6%).
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Old 6th June 2020, 01:13 AM   #656
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Looks like a whole bunch of bond/equity funds, which I suppose do offset each other a bit. Are these actively managed ones? You might end up paying some pretty hefty fees just to have your money in them. Overall though 300 a month though is a good amount to put in, letting compound interest do its thing.

Quote:
Odd or just the result of $5T thrown at the economy?
I suppose the money printer going brrrrr does have something to do with it as well.

Totally relevant music video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI7sBsBHdCk
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Old 6th June 2020, 01:56 AM   #657
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
Looks like a whole bunch of bond/equity funds, which I suppose do offset each other a bit. Are these actively managed ones?
About 50:50 managed and trackers.

Quote:
You might end up paying some pretty hefty fees just to have your money in them.
I avoid funds which charge more than 1% fees. Hargreaves Lansdown (whose ISA this is) have often negotiated discounted management fees.

Quote:
Overall though 300 a month though is a good amount to put in, letting compound interest do its thing.
That's the idea. The plan is to continue investing until I'm about 70, and then gradually start to convert to cash.
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Old 6th June 2020, 02:38 AM   #658
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Thanks for typing that up, Pixel42. I found it interesting, and would like updates.

Were you tracking dividends too?

I'm not sure how old you are, but is it a rather conservative portfolio?
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Old 6th June 2020, 03:48 AM   #659
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thanks for typing that up, Pixel42. I found it interesting, and would like updates.
It's all in a spreadsheet so there was more cutting & pasting than typing.

Quote:
Were you tracking dividends too?
I'm investing for growth rather than income, so I don't pay any attention to dividends. I'm not really sure how they work, to be honest. I should make it clear I'm a rank amateur at all this.

Quote:
I'm not sure how old you are, but is it a rather conservative portfolio?
I'm 66 and yes, I think it's pretty conservative. As I said it's mostly trackers, with only a few riskier funds. If I was 30 years younger it would probably be the other way round.
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Old 6th June 2020, 04:03 AM   #660
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I am not a financial adviser but that sounds good to me, Pixel42.
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Old 6th June 2020, 04:13 AM   #661
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I put all my retirement funds into cash in March and avoided a lot of losses. I’ve now moved it back into a “balanced“ fund which is a mixture of shares, bonds, property and cash. Riskier than cash, but I think it will return 3-5% over the next couple of years, where cash, after fees, will have a negative return.

As I’ve said many times, my wife and I can get by well enough on the Aged Pension (about $A35k per year) and only need our retirement savings to add $A25-30k a year to live very comfortably. This looks doable as the world economy recovers. If not, the equity on our house is always there.
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Old 8th June 2020, 10:41 PM   #662
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It's been interesting to see the way stock indexes have recovered. Even travel/entertainments sectors are showing signs of life though they have a long ways to go. Much stronger at this point than I expected.

I suspect much of this is a build up of cash from two sources. People not spending as much and the multi trillion injections by the Fed.

One of the things I monitor is consumer credit and Equifax, a consumer credit reporting company, has an interesting blog post:

https://insight.equifax.com/let-the-...log_QA_DA_blog

Quote:
But despite the economic downturn, between the CARES Act and accommodations from creditors, we discovered 30+ day delinquency rates steadily declined in April. Additionally, bankcard utilization declined over 8% in the last two months versus a 16% increase in 2010.

When I see numbers like this, I find myself asking more questions. I want to study the data and understand how people are reacting.
Basically, while some are getting hit hard, overall people are seeing increased savings and lower debt.

How this shakes out over then next year or so should be interesting. Tax revenue v spending will be skewed more strongly. Its impact is lessoned by very low interest rates which will have to be maintained at a very low level as the debt has grown exponentially. This may not be the problem it seems since pretty much all countries are in the same boat. Rates could be low for quite a while but it is increasingly vulnerable and will require larger Fed actions to control. Similar issues are faced by other country's central banks.
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Old 8th June 2020, 11:08 PM   #663
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I can't help but feel there's some irrational exuberance going on here. The economy is in pretty bad shape, it seems to me. I see increased cost for products, and decreased demand, for some time to come.



I didn't let go of my stocks, but I did put in a lot of "stop" orders at about 10%-20% below current prices.

I was very pleased that the Planet Fitness stock I bought during the lockdown rose 30% since I bought it. If it drops 10% from its current, I'm dumping it. It just seems like revenues will end up being way, way, down for a very long time. The potential down side is bigger than the potential up side, it seems to me. I have a few stocks like that, and they all just got stop orders.

I am surprised by the way it has recovered, but I didn't expect it to crash much worse than it did. On this thread I predicted 18,000 dow, and I think it got to 19,000 before it recovered.

I expected it to go a little bit lower before an anemic recovery. I guess that's why I program computers for a living, instead of trading stocks.

I haven't looked into it, but I know that at one point the FAANGs stocks were driving the indices. (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google.) I suppose all of those have probably done well. I haven't looked. One thing that has happened in this plague driven market is that the big got bigger. It was waitresses and the remainder of the independent retailers that got totally screwed by the virus. That wouldn't drive the stock market down very much.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 8th June 2020 at 11:12 PM.
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Old 9th June 2020, 02:08 AM   #664
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I suspect much of this is a build up of cash from two sources. People not spending as much and the multi trillion injections by the Fed.
Yep - pretty easy to see where the stimulus is going.

I haven't looked at all, so if you know how much QE (4? 5?) the Fed's done since 31 March, let me know. I bet it's plenty.

Quite amazing to have a Ponzi scheme printing its own money.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I can't help but feel there's some irrational exuberance going on here. The economy is in pretty bad shape, it seems to me. I see increased cost for products, and decreased demand, for some time to come.
Yes to all that.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I haven't looked into it, but I know that at one point the FAANGs stocks were driving the indices. (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google.) I suppose all of those have probably done well. I haven't looked.
I have. Amazon & Netflix have made money, while Apple has lost a lot of sales and production. They may recover, but they may not, too.

Farcebook and Google have been savaged by reduced advertising, but their share prices have never been driven by profits, unlike Apple, which is.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
One thing that has happened in this plague driven market is that the big got bigger. It was waitresses and the remainder of the independent retailers that got totally screwed by the virus. That wouldn't drive the stock market down very much.
No, but the effect of those people not earning and not paying taxes will be huge. There are also a lot of high-profile jobs lost: airline crew, tourist operators, travel agencies, the cruise industry, professional services (recruiting, management consulting) etc.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:35 AM   #665
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Still not seeing a true Black Swan event here, as I said long ago.

https://theconversation.com/coronavi...n-event-136675

Quote:
The subtitle of Taleb’s book is “The impact of the highly improbable.” But an event like COVID-19 is not all that rare. Indeed, history is replete with such events, there have been numerous warnings from many sources, and the mathematical odds of an occurrence are not all that remote. With pandemics, it is not really a question of if, but usually when.

Indeed, Taleb recently weighed in on the question of whether COVID-19 is or isn’t a black swan.

Spoiler alert: it isn’t.
Yes, a large market correction. Higher unemployment, but not so bad (8% predicted in Australia down from 10%).

Just like The Atheist’s predictions about the world death toll, this prediction also looks highly exaggerated.

Thankfully.
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Old 9th June 2020, 05:54 AM   #666
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My post on 29 February:

Quote:
Can I just add that, regardless of how many people use the term, this is not a “Black Swan Event” at all? Not only have we been here before many times, but governments know how to respond.
Hmmmm.
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Old 9th June 2020, 12:16 PM   #667
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I can't help but feel there's some irrational exuberance going on here.
Here's why: It's all retail buyers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Still not seeing a true Black Swan event here, as I said long ago.
Worldwide recession, negative 8-10% for the June quarter - sure as hell looks like one to me.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Just like The Atheist’s predictions about the world death toll, this prediction also looks highly exaggerated.

Thankfully.
You're making the same mistake as many others - thinking the worst is behind us, when in reality, we're less than 10% of the way through.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
My post on 29 February:

Quote:
Not only have we been here before many times, but governments know how to respond.
Hmmmm.
If it weren't for half a million corpses and millions of lives devastated, I'd find that hilarious. Yeah, governments know what to do...

Print money frantically. I'm sure I've heard of that somewhere in the past.

Check back again in six months and we'll compare notes.

I hope you're right, but I don't live on hope. I deal with facts & evidence.
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Old 9th June 2020, 01:18 PM   #668
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's why: It's all retail buyers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia



Worldwide recession, negative 8-10% for the June quarter - sure as hell looks like one to me.



You're making the same mistake as many others - thinking the worst is behind us, when in reality, we're less than 10% of the way through.



If it weren't for half a million corpses and millions of lives devastated, I'd find that hilarious. Yeah, governments know what to do...

Print money frantically. I'm sure I've heard of that somewhere in the past.

Check back again in six months and we'll compare notes.

I hope you're right, but I don't live on hope. I deal with facts & evidence.
See, I didn’t come up with the Black Swan Theory, Taleb did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Have you read him? Perhaps you should.

The link I posted (here it is again https://theconversation.com/coronavi...n-event-136675) makes it clear that Covid-19 is not a Black Swan Event and Taleb agrees. I’ll take their facts and evidence over yours every day of the week.
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Old 9th June 2020, 02:57 PM   #669
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
The link I posted (here it is again https://theconversation.com/coronavi...n-event-136675) makes it clear that Covid-19 is not a Black Swan Event and Taleb agrees. I’ll take their facts and evidence over yours every day of the week.
That's hilarious - they do not make it clear it's not a Black Swan.

I quote their three requirements:

Attribute one: Is the COVID pandemic an outlier?

They claim it isn't, because we've had other pandemics.

I say it is, and the proof is in the pudding - no other pandemic has caused the type of worldwide shutdown we're seeing with Covid. It is unquestionably an outlier.

Attribute two: Does COVID-19 carry an extreme impact?

They agree with me that it has.

Attribute three: Is it, or will it be, normalized after the fact?

They say "don't know"

Looks to me fairly non-committal, also pointing at your pal's "analysis".

So, you're taking the word of one bloke, because he agrees with you, when he was asked about it on about 20 April, which is a fair while and 250,000 deaths ago.

Even better, I wonder whether you actually read your own links, because Taleb doesn't give a single piece of evidence that it's not a Black Swan and says he's irritated by the description and goes on to pntificate on his pet subject.

But feel free to continue to screech into the wind, against the statements of the world's central banks and economists, all of whom have recognised a recession deeper than anything in the past 100 years.

If once a century doesn't qualify as a Black swan event, please do share what you think one would look like.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:10 PM   #670
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Have you read him? Perhaps you should.

The link I posted (here it is again https://theconversation.com/coronavi...n-event-136675)
Quote:
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
I think we can all agree that Covid-19 is a rare event which has had a disproportionate role (compared to the numerous other recent virus outbreaks that had little impact). The last time we had something this big was the Spanish flu in 1918, so it is by far the most significant event of its type in our lifetimes.

If someone told you last December that this year an event would occur that closed down most businesses World wide, forced everyone to stay home and prevented international trade and tourism for months, that crashed the oil price to below zero, and has so far killed more people in the US than all wars combined since WWII (and almost as many as WWI), and caused states to defy the federal government and have to call out their own troops to protect essential supplies - would you have believed them?

One could say that an event of this type is predictable using scientific methods, but predicting the scale isn't. Previous epidemics were much less of a problem, which is why most countries were not prepared for the severity of this one. If this isn't an example of the 'non-computability owing to the very nature of small probabilities' then I don't know what is. A massive earthquake, or a large asteroid hitting the Earth? But they too are 'predictable'.

Then we come to the "psychological biases that blind people to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs". This event isn't anywhere near over, yet we have already seen plenty of blindness - ironically it seems even from the guy who developed the theory!

Perhaps living in Australia you are not aware of the true impact this event is having. It is certainly to soon to call it while death tolls are still rising and the long-term economic impact is yet to hit us. I bet that when it is all over the World's economic and political landscape will be rather different from what we were expecting.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:23 PM   #671
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's hilarious - they do not make it clear it's not a Black Swan.

I quote their three requirements:

Attribute one: Is the COVID pandemic an outlier?

They claim it isn't, because we've had other pandemics.

I say it is, and the proof is in the pudding - no other pandemic has caused the type of worldwide shutdown we're seeing with Covid. It is unquestionably an outlier.

Attribute two: Does COVID-19 carry an extreme impact?

They agree with me that it has.

Attribute three: Is it, or will it be, normalized after the fact?

They say "don't know"

Looks to me fairly non-committal, also pointing at your pal's "analysis".

So, you're taking the word of one bloke, because he agrees with you, when he was asked about it on about 20 April, which is a fair while and 250,000 deaths ago.

Even better, I wonder whether you actually read your own links, because Taleb doesn't give a single piece of evidence that it's not a Black Swan and says he's irritated by the description and goes on to pntificate on his pet subject.

But feel free to continue to screech into the wind, against the statements of the world's central banks and economists, all of whom have recognised a recession deeper than anything in the past 100 years.

If once a century doesn't qualify as a Black swan event, please do share what you think one would look like.
The GFC. Nobody predicted that. Many people, notably Bill Gates, predicted this one. Bloody hell, even Hollywood. Did you watch “Contagion”?

Of course this event is serious and is not over. It’s just not a Black Swan, despite your screeching “but it is because I called it”.
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Old 9th June 2020, 03:46 PM   #672
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's why: It's all retail buyers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia



Worldwide recession, negative 8-10% for the June quarter - sure as hell looks like one to me.



You're making the same mistake as many others - thinking the worst is behind us, when in reality, we're less than 10% of the way through.



If it weren't for half a million corpses and millions of lives devastated, I'd find that hilarious. Yeah, governments know what to do...

Print money frantically. I'm sure I've heard of that somewhere in the past.

Check back again in six months and we'll compare notes.

I hope you're right, but I don't live on hope. I deal with facts & evidence.
I was going to let this one go.

But yes. Governments printed money. It works. It’s what got the world, belatedly, out of the Great Depression, it’s how the world coped with then recovered from the GFC.

What would your response be? Maintaining a balanced budget or aiming for a surplus?

Thank goodness you are nowhere near managing national economies.
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Old 9th June 2020, 08:43 PM   #673
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
The GFC. Nobody predicted that.
Utter nonsense, again.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Many people, notably Bill Gates, predicted this one.
I'm not sure whether you're being deliberately obtuse, or just have no idea what you're talking about. Pandemics happen all the time and Gates was one of many voices predicting another.

Nobody predicted one that would cause the destruction this one has.

As noted, the last pandemic of this scale was 100 years ago. You're talking about the Blue Mountains against Everest.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Bloody hell, even Hollywood. Did you watch “Contagion”?
Srsly?

It's not anywhere near the fist pandemic movie or story. Heck, there was a Pommy program on TV so long ago I was a teenager - Survivor.

That's like saying that if a UFO landed in Hyde Park it wouldn't be an unusual event because HG Wells wrote about a century ago.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Of course this event is serious and is not over. It’s just not a Black Swan, despite your screeching “but it is because I called it”.
Holy crap, you're just copying my words now.

It's not just me, mate.

Try Jerome Powell, talking about the US economy shrinking by 20-30%: https://kslnewsradio.com/1925424/the...ld-take-years/

Or even Nasdaq itself:

Quote:
You know what happened next. COVID-19 went from a minor news story to a full-blow black swan event.
Business Insider?

And if you look up the thread a little, I've quoted several major traders who have also identified it as a Black Swan.

I can give you as many expert opinions as you like.

Against your one bloke, who doesn't offer any evidence. But I guess he's probably smarter than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve...

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I was going to let this one go.
Oh, I'm glad you didn't - you know me, the more bulldust you post, the more I'll dump on it.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
But yes. Governments printed money. It works. It’s what got the world, belatedly, out of the Great Depression, it’s how the world coped with then recovered from the GFC.
As a short-term strategy, it can help, but the Fed has now been "easing" for 12 years and they have an awful lot of it to do yet.

US borrowing is currently sitting at 107% of GDP and is set to rise to 125% in the next 12 months: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...nt-debt-to-gdp

During the Great Depression, borrowing never exceeded 50% of GDp, and the only other time it exceeded 100% was during WWII.

It peaked at 112.7% during that period.

This will be the biggest deficit in 220 years of the US republic.

But it's not a Black Swan...

It's already at

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
What would your response be? Maintaining a balanced budget or aiming for a surplus?
What on earth does that have to do with the subject? You're arguing this isn't a Black Swan event, not asking whether I'd have done a better job.

(the answer to that is yes, though - see below)

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Thank goodness you are nowhere near managing national economies.
I'll just point you gently towards the start of thread, where you can once again enjoy the fact that I was on top of this before anyone, and put my money where my mouth is.

I think my record on this situation speaks for itself.

Love forums - it's all there in black & white & grey.
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Old 9th June 2020, 09:04 PM   #674
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There’s just so much wrong here, but 6 economists in the world (sort of) predicted the GFC? Close enough to zero.

The last large-scale pandemic the Spanish Flu? One hit in the 1980s, infected 75m and killed 39m, 37m still living with it and 770,000 deaths in 2017. Stacks up against this one I would have thought.

One thing you got right is that many did predict more pandemics and with great confidence. Which was my point. There was nothing greatly surprising about Covid-19, which alone makes this not a Black Swan.

And I see you have backed away from your “printing money” nonsense. Baby steps.
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Old 9th June 2020, 10:32 PM   #675
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There’s just so much wrong here, but 6 economists in the world (sort of) predicted the GFC? Close enough to zero.
I gave you six, which doesn't mean there were only six - you're verging on being dishonest now. JP Morgan's hedge fund was limit short on the day of Lehman's collapse, which is quite ironic.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
The last large-scale pandemic the Spanish Flu? One hit in the 1980s, infected 75m and killed 39m, 37m still living with it and 770,000 deaths in 2017. Stacks up against this one I would have thought.
Holy crap, now you're really clutching at straws.

Aside from the fact that HIV isn't classed as a pandemic, trying to compare a disease which is 100% avoidable with one that's highly contagious is just absurd.

I'm not even going to mention that even in the worst-case scenario, a million people a year died of AIDs, while Covid's knocked over half that in two months.

But nice try at comparing a 40-year-old STD with a disease that's existed for six months.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
One thing you got right is that many did predict more pandemics and with great confidence. Which was my point. There was nothing greatly surprising about Covid-19, which alone makes this not a Black Swan.
Showing that you actually have no idea what the term means.

It's about the impact and the likelihood. I showed you how rare the current situation is, but you've ignored that because you know you're wrong.

Either that or you know more than the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and I seriously doubt that.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
And I see you have backed away from your “printing money” nonsense. Baby steps.
Sorry mate, you'll need to hold onto those booties - I did not back away from it at all - I said it's a useful short-term mechanism. Jesus, I even gave you the numbers of why it's a bad idea, but maybe you think borrowing at levels higher than WWII is a good plan. You know little enough about economics that it wouldn't surprise me a bit if you did.
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Old 9th June 2020, 11:26 PM   #676
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I gave you six, which doesn't mean there were only six - you're verging on being dishonest now. JP Morgan's hedge fund was limit short on the day of Lehman's collapse, which is quite ironic.



Holy crap, now you're really clutching at straws.

Aside from the fact that HIV isn't classed as a pandemic, trying to compare a disease which is 100% avoidable with one that's highly contagious is just absurd.

I'm not even going to mention that even in the worst-case scenario, a million people a year died of AIDs, while Covid's knocked over half that in two months.

But nice try at comparing a 40-year-old STD with a disease that's existed for six months.



Showing that you actually have no idea what the term means.

It's about the impact and the likelihood. I showed you how rare the current situation is, but you've ignored that because you know you're wrong.

Either that or you know more than the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and I seriously doubt that.



Sorry mate, you'll need to hold onto those booties - I did not back away from it at all - I said it's a useful short-term mechanism. Jesus, I even gave you the numbers of why it's a bad idea, but maybe you think borrowing at levels higher than WWII is a good plan. You know little enough about economics that it wouldn't surprise me a bit if you did.
Yeah, funny. What is a pandemic other than a global epidemic? It wouldn't surprise me if you declared AIDS not to be a global epidemic though. You are re-defining things all over this thread, most particularly "Black Swan", so coming up with your own definitions is no surprise.

Nonetheless, you described the Spanish Flu as the last great pandemic. It wasn't.
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Old 10th June 2020, 12:40 AM   #677
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This month's update.

Date% */-
5.181.3
8.183.4
11.18-3.1
2.19-0.8
5.191.9
8.197.4
11.196.6
2.2010.3
3.203.7
4.20-4.9
5.200.3
6.205.8

That's an increase of £633 in the value.

I have £15000 in premium bonds, and when one comes up I often treat myself to something with the prize money. I don't do that when the ISA jumps up like that, because I know it might go down again next month and I'd have to take my present back.
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Old 10th June 2020, 12:07 PM   #678
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Yeah, funny. What is a pandemic other than a global epidemic?
Nice to see you're not trying to revisit the destruction of your sillier points and have move on the just nit-picking.

The WHO doesn't class HIV as a pandemic. And even if it did, the point of comparison, as noted, is absurd.

I will never get HIV - it is 100% avoidable. There were a few early cases of transmission by blood transfusion, which is unlucky, but outside of the very rare extreme stiff-up by medics, or rape, HIV is not a consideration for anyone.

Covid, you can catch by going to the shops, or hugging a grandchild.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Nonetheless, you described the Spanish Flu as the last great pandemic. It wasn't.
Yeah, just go straight for the dishonesty. This is what I actually typed:

Quote:
Pandemics happen all the time and Gates was one of many voices predicting another.

Nobody predicted one that would cause the destruction this one has.

As noted, the last pandemic of this scale was 100 years ago. You're talking about the Blue Mountains against Everest.
The best thing about this very one-sided argument is that time will prove one of us utterly correct.

Let's check back in six months, and if the world's economy is smelling of roses, I will change my sig to state that I was completely wrong and should have listened to the amazing lionking and his superior analysis of the event from an economic perspective.

If I'm right, you can just slink off and ignore the thread, like you had been until the Fed's money got tipped into sharemarkets on the back of no fundamentals at all.
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Old 10th June 2020, 01:10 PM   #679
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I notice a couple of articles on the consequences this morning - UK & Europe looking at 10% or more contraction this year: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52991913

And an overall world contraction of 6%, without a second wave, which looks a done deal to me: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
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Old 11th June 2020, 01:47 AM   #680
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Blackie the swan back on the pond.
2% down in pre market.
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