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Old 27th June 2018, 01:04 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
What policies do you think they want to enact that they would be allowed to in the future?

This isn't the federal gov ending their abortion restrictions, it is that the court would no longer be a check against states defacto banning it.
You're right, things probably wouldn't change along the coasts, but the rest of the country would outlaw it or make it very difficult. I don't think the Court will do that, though. A lot (maybe most?) voters can't even remember a time when abortion wasn't legal in some form.

If the Court did overturn it, you would definitely see court-packing attempts, which has to be in the back of any justice's mind.

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Old 27th June 2018, 01:05 PM   #82
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Democrats can't hold up another appointment, because they don't have control of the Senate and they can't filibuster. The idea that they will pack the court in the future has 0.00% chance of actually happening.

The court is going to be majority conservative for some time. It's just a fact. I'd rather read despair and weeping rather than idiotic plans of action.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:07 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
You're right, things probably wouldn't change along the coasts, but the rest of the country would outlaw it or make it very difficult. I don't think the Court will do that, though. A lot (maybe most?) voters can't even remember a time when abortion wasn't legal in some form.
So what? That was in the old days when only Catholics were against abortions and evangelical Christians were fine with it. It is a brave new theocratic state they are building.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:08 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
Democrats can't hold up another appointment, because they don't have control of the Senate and they can't filibuster. The idea that they will pack the court in the future has 0.00% chance of actually happening.

The court is going to be majority conservative for some time. It's just a fact. I'd rather read despair and weeping rather than idiotic plans of action.
It has an excellent chance of happening after the 2020 elections, if Democrats are able to do what they did in 2008, and they're looking at a Court with right-wing replacements for Souter and Ginsberg. I would be surprised if they didn't pack the court.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:09 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
Democrats can't hold up another appointment, because they don't have control of the Senate and they can't filibuster. The idea that they will pack the court in the future has 0.00% chance of actually happening.

The court is going to be majority conservative for some time. It's just a fact. I'd rather read despair and weeping rather than idiotic plans of action.
Well how about second amendment solutions to free up some seats?
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:09 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
So what? That was in the old days when only Catholics were against abortions and evangelical Christians were fine with it. It is a brave new theocratic state they are building.
The polling on the issue is very much in favor or keeping Roe. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ng-roe-v-wade/
Overturning Roe is less popular than the child separation policy.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:10 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
If Kennedy wasn't progressive, why are all of the progressives getting so upset that he resigned?
I guess because the likely replacement will be hyper-conservative so replacing a moderate with a hyper-conservative will leave SCOTUS considerably more right leaning.

I prefer skimmed milk. For me 2% milk is just about tolerable. Kennedy may be 2% milk, his likely replacement will be double cream.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:10 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The polling on the issue is very much in favor or keeping Roe. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ng-roe-v-wade/
Overturning Roe is less popular than the child separation policy.
As if those things matter anymore.

I mean prohibition never had huge polling numbers and it became law, polls are just not that big a deal.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:12 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Oh, I think on voting rights and unions, sure. It's only going to get worse, but on abortion? I don't think Murkowski and Collins would support someone they thought was capable of overturning Roe..
Ummm... why? Collins and Murkowski both voted to confirm Gorsuch (well known to be right-wing), which also would be a step in overturning Roe.

Is it because you think they are pro-health care? Well, both of them voted for the republican tax bill, which is playing a part in gutting Obamacare through the elimination of the mandate.

I'm pretty sure they (along with every other republican) would be completely happy to see abortion made illegal, as long as it meant more tax cuts for the wealthy.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:13 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
overturning Roe v Wade would turn our country upside down and inside out. Complete chaos.
It doesn't need to be fully overturned. As Wayward Son points out, it just needs to be hollowed out to such an extent that it is functionally useless in those jurisdictions where conservatives hold sway.

Abortion may still be a (federal) right but there will be enough local leeway that it is effectively unobtainable in around half the states.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:17 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
As if those things matter anymore.
I'm not that pessimistic, I guess. This used to be a center-right country, and I think it's moved to the center, and I think the government will reflect that by 2020. I think SCOTUS knows this as well, so their rulings won't be the worst-cases that people think they'll be. The major civil rights victories that have occurred over the years won't be rolled back.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:18 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
It has an excellent chance of happening after the 2020 elections, if Democrats are able to do what they did in 2008, and they're looking at a Court with right-wing replacements for Souter and Ginsberg. I would be surprised if they didn't pack the court.
By "pack the court" I am referring to the "add more justices" strategy.

Waiting for the next President and Senate to be Democratic and hopefully having conservative judges retire, and no more liberal ones retire in the meantime, is just the normal course of events and depends on a number of uncontrollable factors.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:19 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is why I think armed resistence to a tyranny is becoming a realistic possibility?
To be honest, I'm really surprised that someone hasn't yet attempted to assassinate the fat, sociopathic pig in the White House.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:21 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Ummm... why? Collins and Murkowski both voted to confirm Gorsuch (well known to be right-wing), which also would be a step in overturning Roe.

Is it because you think they are pro-health care? Well, both of them voted for the republican tax bill, which is playing a part in gutting Obamacare through the elimination of the mandate.

I'm pretty sure they (along with every other republican) would be completely happy to see abortion made illegal, as long as it meant more tax cuts for the wealthy.
The trends for the GOP don't look good. They've been losing in places they have no business losing lately. GOP senators in moderate states certainly are paying attention to what's going on.

We'll know pretty soon. The GOP will move fast on this. My prediction is we don't get a far-right judge. I predict more John Roberts and less Neil Gorsuch.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:22 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
To be honest, I'm really surprised that someone hasn't yet attempted to assassinate the fat, sociopathic pig in the White House.
I'm really kind of surprised by that too. But then I thought someone would take a shot at Obama. Hell, they didn't even think he was born here.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:23 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Kennedy was a progressive???
He was a moderate.
Pretty clear you want to impose a right wing authoritarian rule on the US....and guarantee it will not be able to be removed at the ballot box.
And taking the country back to an era when minorities had no power and White Euro Males reigned supreme is a price you are happy to pay. Hell, you might well be happy that the darkies, spiks, and others are put back in their p lace.
Kennedy was what I would call a mildly conservative Justice.

It's not like Ginsberg retired.

If I have been observing this correctly, both parties will try to spin this to motivate their midterm voters. However, I think Trump is going to nominate an African American, or a Woman, and attempt to trump the midterm voter turnout, by claiming that the Dems are trying to block a woman or minority nominee, sucking some votes at the midterms from the Dems.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:25 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Serously, A lot of the despair and wallowing in extensitanal misery we are getting on this site is just what Trump and the GOP want.

Not sure what that means. The "sit" and "anal" parts make it sound vaguely scatological.

But, at any rate, you're mistaken. What Trump and the GOP want is to nominate and confirm the most bigoted, sexist, white Dominionist, drooling, right wing-nut Neanderthal (and I use that term with apologies to real Neanderthals living or dead) that they can scrape up off of the congealed slime of a long uncleaned truck stop toilet. One who is as young as possible.

Any actual judicial qualifications are unimportant, and might even be a strike against them. (Don't want any more screw-ups like Earl Warren or Warren Burger.)

And there isn't really any way to stop them. We know we can't expect any Republicans in the Senate possessing integrity or concern for the welfare of the country to stand up and argue against any such nomination, since no such individuals exist.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:26 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
To be honest, I'm really surprised that someone hasn't yet attempted to assassinate the fat, sociopathic pig in the White House.
I for one am glad they have not.

Firstly, as "flawed" an election as it may have been, President Trump won fairer and squarer than George W Bush. President Trump is clearly the president that just enough of the US electorate want to get him across the line. Violent regime change is IMO unacceptable when there is still viable (but flawed) democratic process in operation.

Secondly, if the attempt is unsuccessful then it'll result in a backlash and will create a semi-divine incarnation of President Trump - just like what happened after the failed Reagan assassination.

Thirdly, a successful attempt will again result in a backlash but also create a martyr and bring in President Pence (who will win two more elections thanks to the sympathy vote).
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:28 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Re: Possible appointment of far-right judge to the supreme court...
Quote:
Ummm... why? Collins and Murkowski both voted to confirm Gorsuch (well known to be right-wing), which also would be a step in overturning Roe.
The trends for the GOP don't look good. They've been losing in places they have no business losing lately. GOP senators in moderate states certainly are paying attention to what's going on.

We'll know pretty soon. The GOP will move fast on this. My prediction is we don't get a far-right judge. I predict more John Roberts and less Neil Gorsuch.
The GOP senators in moderate states voted to confirm far-right Gorsuch, despite the rather scummy way he was appointed.

What exactly would be the point of a GOP senator opposing another far-right judge? They were all happy with Gorsuch. It probably won't affect their election prospects (since people don't typically look at conformation votes when casting their ballots), and if the party is going down in flames anyways there's no point in taking a principled stand.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:29 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The trends for the GOP don't look good. They've been losing in places they have no business losing lately. GOP senators in moderate states certainly are paying attention to what's going on.

We'll know pretty soon. The GOP will move fast on this. My prediction is we don't get a far-right judge. I predict more John Roberts and less Neil Gorsuch.
IMO the vast majority are still far more scared of being primaried than they are of losing the election. After all they already have a 7% advantage, imagine how wide that will be when GOP voter suppression, aided and abetted by a sympathetic SCOTUS, really switches into high gear.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:32 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Kennedy was what I would call a mildly conservative Justice.

It's not like Ginsberg retired.

If I have been observing this correctly, both parties will try to spin this to motivate their midterm voters. However, I think Trump is going to nominate an African American, or a Woman, and attempt to trump the midterm voter turnout, by claiming that the Dems are trying to block a woman or minority nominee, sucking some votes at the midterms from the Dems.
I think you're right, which makes me have to modify my position: I think we either get a Robert's-like white-male or a Gorsuch-like woman or minority.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:33 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
I'm not that pessimistic, I guess. This used to be a center-right country, and I think it's moved to the center, and I think the government will reflect that by 2020. I think SCOTUS knows this as well, so their rulings won't be the worst-cases that people think they'll be. The major civil rights victories that have occurred over the years won't be rolled back.
I disagree, the current GOP is way, way to the right of Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan. Heck Hillary was to the right of those guys.

The US was centre right but once the evangelicals and the Tea Party got their claws into the GOP they dragged it far right and the Democratic Party largely occupied the space left behind.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:37 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO the vast majority are still far more scared of being primaried than they are of losing the election. After all they already have a 7% advantage, imagine how wide that will be when GOP voter suppression, aided and abetted by a sympathetic SCOTUS, really switches into high gear.
There is that, but a lot of these GOP Senators aren't from Alabama or Mississippi, and other hard-right areas. Are Pat Toomy (Penn) and Marco Rubio (florida) more worried about the election or the primary? I think the election, since they're in moderate states.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:39 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think progressives chainging their minds about guns and actually buying a rifle is going to happen a lot more then moving to Canada.
Considering how heated I seen some of discussions on guns got over on the Democratic Underground site, I would not be surprised...
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:39 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Firstly, as "flawed" an election as it may have been, President Trump won fairer and squarer than George W Bush.
Errr... questionable.

The 2000 Bush/Gore election came down to Florida. While it is true that the supreme court cut short the time allowed to do recounts, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bush wouldn't have won had recounts proceeded. Whether he did or not depends on several factors... recount the entire state or just those requested by the Democrats; how certain 'spoiled' ballots are counted, etc., but there appears to be a body of evidence that he did (or should have) won the state fair and square.

https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/polit...ies/index.html

On the other hand, while you didn't have any of the recount issues with Trump, you did have:
- Russian interference
- Voter suppression. (some of that probably existed under Bush, but has gotten worse over time)

It should also be pointed out that while Bush lost the popular vote, he was still closer to Gore (only losing by less than 1 million) than Trump was to Clinton (where he lost by ~3 million).
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:40 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
There is that, but a lot of these GOP Senators aren't from Alabama or Mississippi, and other hard-right areas. Are Pat Toomy (Penn) and Marco Rubio (florida) more worried about the election or the primary? I think the election, since they're in moderate states.
The thing is that you still have to get past the primary. If the Trumpist base get a whiff of mutiny then they'll have you out on your ear as soon as they can.

Now if the decision on the judge is between the primary and the election then there may be some wiggle room but even then, until now, when it has mattered, the GOP has been in lockstep with the Trump base. I see no reason for that to change even in so-called moderate states.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:41 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I disagree, the current GOP is way, way to the right of Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan. Heck Hillary was to the right of those guys.

The US was centre right but once the evangelicals and the Tea Party got their claws into the GOP they dragged it far right and the Democratic Party largely occupied the space left behind.
The problem is our system gives outsized influence to people in rural areas, and that's where a lot of right-wingers live, so a center-right country looks far-right, and a centrist country looks center-right.

But the sense I get is the political momentum has shifted completely to the Democrats, but we haven't been able to see it manifest except in a couple special elections. That's why I'm optimistic.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:45 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The thing is that you still have to get past the primary. If the Trumpist base get a whiff of mutiny then they'll have you out on your ear as soon as they can.

Now if the decision on the judge is between the primary and the election then there may be some wiggle room but even then, until now, when it has mattered, the GOP has been in lockstep with the Trump base. I see no reason for that to change even in so-called moderate states.
It really hasn't though. Where's the Wall? The Planned Parenthood defunding? The Obamacare repeal? The Infrastructure plan? Trump hasn't been able to accomplish anything, legislatively. His "agenda" is completely stalled.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:45 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
There is that, but a lot of these GOP Senators aren't from Alabama or Mississippi, and other hard-right areas. Are Pat Toomy (Penn) and Marco Rubio (florida) more worried about the election or the primary? I think the election, since they're in moderate states.
Rubio and Toomey are both not up for reelection until 2022.

Voters have short memories, these guys know that. They won't worry about voter backlash on this.

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Old 27th June 2018, 01:45 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
overturning Roe v Wade would turn our country upside down and inside out. Complete chaos.
Not necessarily, but it will increase mortality rate as abortions are pushed back underground into unsafe conditions.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:46 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Rubio and Toomey are both not up for reelection until 2022.

Voters have short memories, these guys know that. They won't worry about voter backlash on this.
On a SCOTUS vacancy? I'm still pissed about what happened to Garland. And SCOTUS has a habit of inserting itself in the news.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:47 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Busta Capp View Post
Good comeback, but with a name like that what could I expect ?
Maybe you should take a look at the previous posts the person you are replying to has made in the past ... when a person like this starts making comments about "armed resistance," Trump lovers should start to get nervous...
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:50 PM   #113
The Don
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The problem is our system gives outsized influence to people in rural areas, and that's where a lot of right-wingers live, so a center-right country looks far-right, and a centrist country looks center-right.

But the sense I get is the political momentum has shifted completely to the Democrats, but we haven't been able to see it manifest except in a couple special elections. That's why I'm optimistic.
I applaud your optimism, sadly I do not share it.

Despite his IMO incompetence and gaffes, President Trump still enjoys the support of 40%-45% of the US electorate. IOW 40%-45% of the US electorate support a racist demagogue because he actually reflects their views and/or he allows their chosen policies like gutting the ACA or indulging in voodoo economics to be implemented. Either way you cut it, in my view that's some pretty serious far-right stuff going on there.

I also disagree that the Democrats have any meaningful momentum, at the moment they just have an element of "Not Trump". Whilst that may sway some special elections (especially if turnout is low), IMO it's not enough to carry a national election.

OTOH IMO there are candidates out there with the ability to inspire. In the UK MJ Hegar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have recently come to prominence. More like this, and fewer of the tired old faces, may provide the catalyst.
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Old 27th June 2018, 01:50 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Not necessarily, but it will increase mortality rate as abortions are pushed back underground into unsafe conditions.
Bingo. Also, a general depressing of prenatal care.

I'll also note that many of the nuts have shown little to no concern for reality - the latest controversy of a pharmacist who refused to provide an"abortion" pill involved a fetus that had already died in the womb, for example. Even the "I don't want to end a life" argument fails on that one.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:02 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is why I think armed resistence to a tyranny is becoming a realistic possibility?
They better buying and training now. By the time they realize that armed resistance is called for, it will be too late to become competent with firearms.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:03 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
It really hasn't though. Where's the Wall?
Quietly being funded through back channels.

Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The Planned Parenthood defunding? The Obamacare repeal?
Rather than tackling these thorny subjects face-on they are subjecting both to the death of a thousand cuts

Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The Infrastructure plan?
I agree here, but then again President Trump had no plan and the GOP are disinclined to invest in those things which are for the public good.

Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Trump hasn't been able to accomplish anything, legislatively. His "agenda" is completely stalled.
His agenda was an muddled mishmash of contradictory half-thoughts but he's still "achieved" a great deal - at least from a Trumpist perspective.

- Withdrawn from TPP
- Withdrawn from Paris accord
- Has given notice to the G7 and the world at large that he won't be messed with on trade
- Brought all kinds of manufacturing and mining jobs back to the US *
- Sunk the Iran nuclear deal
- Brought peace to Korea
- Fully supported Israel
- Implemented a (not a) Muslim ban


* facts don't matter
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:11 PM   #117
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This isn't good. Moderates are what we need more than anything at a time like this.

I'm feeling particularly uneasy.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:16 PM   #118
Fudbucker
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Quietly being funded through back channels.



Rather than tackling these thorny subjects face-on they are subjecting both to the death of a thousand cuts



I agree here, but then again President Trump had no plan and the GOP are disinclined to invest in those things which are for the public good.



His agenda was an muddled mishmash of contradictory half-thoughts but he's still "achieved" a great deal - at least from a Trumpist perspective.

- Withdrawn from TPP
- Withdrawn from Paris accord
- Has given notice to the G7 and the world at large that he won't be messed with on trade
- Brought all kinds of manufacturing and mining jobs back to the US *
- Sunk the Iran nuclear deal
- Brought peace to Korea
- Fully supported Israel
- Implemented a (not a) Muslim ban


* facts don't matter
There are some victories, but on the core issue (the wall), Congress wouldn't touch it.

And do you have a link for your claim about the wall?
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:16 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
Democrats can't hold up another appointment, because they don't have control of the Senate and they can't filibuster. The idea that they will pack the court in the future has 0.00% chance of actually happening.

The court is going to be majority conservative for some time. It's just a fact. I'd rather read despair and weeping rather than idiotic plans of action.
John McCain probably can't vote. Susan Collins might balk, she doesn't have a pro-life voting record.

That leaves 49 plus Pence. I think you need 51 votes.
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Old 27th June 2018, 02:20 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
The GOP senators in moderate states voted to confirm far-right Gorsuch, despite the rather scummy way he was appointed.
That was before the political winds shifted. It wasn't all just Roy Moore's fault that he lost that election. Dem turnout was through the roof. As it has been throughout all these special elections. The GOP lost a Penn seat that Trump carried by 20 points.

Quote:
What exactly would be the point of a GOP senator opposing another far-right judge? They were all happy with Gorsuch. It probably won't affect their election prospects (since people don't typically look at conformation votes when casting their ballots), and if the party is going down in flames anyways there's no point in taking a principled stand.
Politicians usually don't die on their swords (some did for Obamacare). If a Collins or Murkowsky or any other squishies think a judge is too extreme for their state, they'll quietly torpedo that person.

Last edited by Fudbucker; 27th June 2018 at 02:21 PM.
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