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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:03 PM   #3121
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I just don't get why there isn't a good RCT on D. Not like this hasn't been kicking around for quite a while.
Even more importantly, why so little research has been done on D prior to the pandemic.

Amazing how something so common can be so ignored.

Hopefully, that will change. It might be that D protects against other respiratory viruses as well.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:43 PM   #3122
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Maybe so, but we already have the mechanism in place for annual flu vaccinations. Whether they can be done at the same time will make a huge difference, of course. A friend told me that his ex, who is in the NHS, told him that there needs to be a four week gap between flu and Covid-19 vaccinations, which is one of the reasons there's been a push to get people to have their flu jabs as early as possible. Whether that's actually the case, or is just precautionary, we'll have to wait and see.
Yes, I've also heard that there should be a gap between flu and any covid jab. Staging the jabs with the right gaps would also increase the complexity of the operation. That said, the mechanism in place for flu jabs would be woefully inadequate for the sheer numbers needed for a full (or even part) vaccination of the entire population.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:32 PM   #3123
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The lack of vision and indeed defeatism on display in this thread is remarkable. It's a wonder this species ever came down out of the trees.

Of course it's possible to vaccinate that many people in that space of time, it's only logistics. You throw resources at it because the prize of elimination is worth the effort. They did a dry run here with the flu jag, set up in the village hall with half a dozen trained vaccinators in booths and it was obvious they could have managed about five times the flow rate they were actually given.

And that's without even using multi-dose vaccination systems.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:09 PM   #3124
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Could it be the disease itself that causes the deficiency?
I would think that would imply that everybody who gets it would display signs of deficiency. But the point is that people who are deficient are more likely to get sick and suffer severe outcomes than people who aren't. Vitamin D deficiency is fairly common, especially in some of the groups that have been hit hardest.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:15 PM   #3125
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
An insignificant, noisy, minority.

There are still people who doubt the Holocaust, and there are people who actually beloieve the earth is flat, so finding people who don't understand pandemics and exponential growth is no surprise.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...hs/6267612002/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-u...on-cases-week/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/u...lizations.html

A saddening interview - the interviewee also has written a moving twitter thread about this too

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1328321929543962625

Quote:
CNN
@CNN
South Dakota ER nurse Jodi Doering says her coronavirus patients often “don’t want to believe that Covid is real."

“Their last dying words are, ‘This can’t be happening. It’s not real.’ And when they should be... FaceTiming their families, they’re filled with anger and hatred.”

https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/stat...71331920883714
Quote:
Jodi Doering
@JodiDoering
Replying to
@JodiDoering
I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a ******* horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.
12:32 AM · Nov 15, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:28 PM   #3126
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I don't know whether medical researchers around the world are taking note of our superb database, but they bloody well should be. Thanks to the low numbers, we have the ability to analyse and identify every infection, including the source of the infection.

Excellent piece here on a pre-symptomatic person passing it to others on his flight to NZ: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...d-4-passengers
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:32 PM   #3127
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
I'm going with the infection fatality rate which is way less than most people think. And I really don't give a damn what somebody on the internet thinks of me. I'm guarantee most of you aren't anywhere near as smart as you think.
I know it's not the US, but the ONS in the UK has done analysis:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...isional/latest

Quote:
In Week 45, the number of deaths registered was 14.3% above the five-year average (1,481 deaths higher).

Of the deaths registered in Week 45, 1,937 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 16.4% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 558 deaths compared with Week 44 (when there were 1,379 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 12.7% of all deaths).

Of the 1,937 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,743 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (90.0%); of the 2,267 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 307 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (13.5%).
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Old 22nd November 2020, 04:23 PM   #3128
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I don't know whether medical researchers around the world are taking note of our superb database, but they bloody well should be. Thanks to the low numbers, we have the ability to analyse and identify every infection, including the source of the infection.

Excellent piece here on a pre-symptomatic person passing it to others on his flight to NZ: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...d-4-passengers
Exactly, New Zealand is great for that.

Meanwhile we have produced a study that shows that kids don't spread COVID-19... during the time that schools were shut.
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link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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Old 22nd November 2020, 04:49 PM   #3129
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Link here answering Planigale's post.

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
link
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Old 22nd November 2020, 04:53 PM   #3130
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Whilst the antibodies may only last 6 months ....
Minor correction, they have only been tested for 6 months. 7 month and longer tests have not been done.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 04:57 PM   #3131
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Another Vitamin D study. This one in Nature:

Analysis of vitamin D level among asymptomatic and critically ill COVID-19 patients and its correlation with inflammatory markers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z

People were grouped in two extremes: Asymptomatic and Critical.

32% of the asymptomatics were deficient. 98% of the critical patients were deficient.
Couple questions come up. Why weren't these people being given supplements? It was my understanding that had become standard practice.

And do we know if the virus causes loss of vitamin D?

Obviously vitamin D supplements are still recommended. This is not about that.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 04:58 PM   #3132
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<Edited to remove Skeptic Ginger's and my post's text, now that she moved it to what's a much more appropriate thread.>
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Old 22nd November 2020, 05:03 PM   #3133
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Yes, I've also heard that there should be a gap between flu and any covid jab. Staging the jabs with the right gaps would also increase the complexity of the operation. That said, the mechanism in place for flu jabs would be woefully inadequate for the sheer numbers needed for a full (or even part) vaccination of the entire population.
We have that issue with live attenuated vaccines. You given them together or 4 weeks apart.

I'm not aware of any killed vaccines where a time gap is needed. I don't ask people getting a flu vaccine if they had a recent Tdap or Hep B vaccine or vice versa.

I do ask if that shot was in the same arm I'm using. But even that is not an absolute contraindication.

Not sure if mRNA vaccines will be different.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 05:06 PM   #3134
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I would think that would imply that everybody who gets it would display signs of deficiency.
Not necessarily. Not if the loss of the vitamin wasn't until late stage illness.

I'm not saying that is what is happening. But I do wonder how/why the critically ill patients weren't getting supplements.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 05:11 PM   #3135
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
That paragraph in Planigale's comment looked quite sarcastic and insincere, to me. Either way, I suggest redirecting anyone's further comments along on that tangent toward the US Politics and the Coronavirus thread.
Wasn't intended, my apologies. Allocation of resources does probably belong in the other thread. I'll move my post while I still can.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 05:18 PM   #3136
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Not necessarily. Not if the loss of the vitamin wasn't until late stage illness.

I'm not saying that is what is happening. But I do wonder how/why the critically ill patients weren't getting supplements.
I can't comment about whether the ill patients were getting supplements or not, but I can comment on something related. If I've been informed correctly, getting vitamin D supplements for critically ill patients would likely be of very limited direct value. It apparently takes an extended period of time with appropriate intake/production of Vitamin D to actually fix a Vitamin D deficiency.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 06:21 PM   #3137
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Couple questions come up. Why weren't these people being given supplements? It was my understanding that had become standard practice.
Study was in India in an region known for low Vit. D. levels. In the USA some places are recommending D. I've looked for but can't find any studies that show D. levels over time to see if more people are taking D. in their daily lives just because of the press.

Quote:
And do we know if the virus causes loss of vitamin D?
Good question. Also haven't seen any studies on that. And these are pretty obvious questions.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 06:24 PM   #3138
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I can't comment about whether the ill patients were getting supplements or not, but I can comment on something related. If I've been informed correctly, getting vitamin D supplements for critically ill patients would likely be of very limited direct value. It apparently takes an extended period of time with appropriate intake/production of Vitamin D to actually fix a Vitamin D deficiency.
That's correct. My understanding is that ill patients should get the final form D. metabolizes into. D3 takes too much time to be effective after someone is ill.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 06:48 PM   #3139
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
No, they'll be held up as examples of territorial anomalies which had the advantage of remoteness of both cities and the countries themselves and of hot weather at the right time to help them.
Greater Melbourne in July 2020: below average rainfall, some cold days and nights
Quote:
In Greater Melbourne, the warmest daytime temperature for the month, 18.3 °C, was recorded at Moorabbin Airport on the 1st.
The coldest day for Greater Melbourne was the 3rd, due to a cold air mass which followed the passage of a front; the lowest daytime temperature during the month, 5.7 °C
Perhaps you forgot that it was fall/winter in the Southern hemisphere when the virus hit Australia and New Zealand? And Australia is a big continent - not all parts of it are a scorching hot desert all year round.

Then again, by your theory places like Texas and Florida should be doing fine.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 06:55 PM   #3140
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Old 22nd November 2020, 07:50 PM   #3141
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Greater Melbourne in July 2020: below average rainfall, some cold days and nights


Perhaps you forgot that it was fall/winter in the Southern hemisphere when the virus hit Australia and New Zealand? And Australia is a big continent - not all parts of it are a scorching hot desert all year round.

The relatively bigger outbreaks in Australia and New Zealand were in March/April, which is early Autumn where the weather is at worst very pleasantly comfortable and conducive to outdoor activity - even more so than the heat of Summer.



Victoria, and most notably Melbourne was the outlier in the Australian Winter, with virtually no community transmission outside of Victoria for the entire season, having been all but eliminated by then. And the entire Victorian outbreak can be traced back to a security breakdown in Hotel quarantine sites.


There was nothing in Tasmania, South Australia, the colder parts of Western Australia or New South Wales, who all have colder winters than much of Queensland and the Northern Territory, which were both virtually Covid free. The exceptions to the above were of course, repatriated citizens and permanent residents.



New Zealand had a very small cluster towards the end of Winter, maxing at a handful of days of up to 13 new cases.




So, with the one exception of Melbourne, there was very little Covid around in these two countries over the Winter period. Even much of regional Victoria was spared.


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Old 22nd November 2020, 07:53 PM   #3142
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I can't comment about whether the ill patients were getting supplements or not, but I can comment on something related. If I've been informed correctly, getting vitamin D supplements for critically ill patients would likely be of very limited direct value. It apparently takes an extended period of time with appropriate intake/production of Vitamin D to actually fix a Vitamin D deficiency.
It was added as routine care for hospitalized patients here in the US. And most of those critical patients would have had contact with the health care system before they reached critical care.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:46 PM   #3143
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Whilst the antibodies may only last 6 months there's also the T cells which, I believe, last longer. Since winter is the worst time for any virus infection, a yearly vaccination in the autumn might well be adequate, provided it is rolled out across the whole population - a massive undertaking in itself.

The reinfections of actual COVID-19 indicates that immunity lasts about six months, T-cells notwithstanding.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 02:28 AM   #3144
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And now results for the Oxford/Astra zeneca Vaccine

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

Not as good as the MRNA vaccines from the states but still good. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had produced 70% "protection" they would still have been lauded to the heavens.

A few questions though

Of those 30 who did show symptoms, did any get severe symptoms or die? and what about the 100 who were not vaccinated and showed symptoms?

Why mention only 20,000 people half in the UK and half in Brasil. There were supposed to be 30,000 subjects tested in the USA

The improved results for the low dose - high dose vaccinations are interesting. I wonder if there are enough test results to prove that is definitely the way to proceed.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 02:35 AM   #3145
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The lack of vision and indeed defeatism on display in this thread is remarkable. It's a wonder this species ever came down out of the trees.

Of course it's possible to vaccinate that many people in that space of time, it's only logistics. You throw resources at it because the prize of elimination is worth the effort. They did a dry run here with the flu jag, set up in the village hall with half a dozen trained vaccinators in booths and it was obvious they could have managed about five times the flow rate they were actually given.

And that's without even using multi-dose vaccination systems.
Actually there have been plans in place for a long time, they are part of both the smallpox* response plan, and pandemic flu plan.

* In case of accidental or deliberate release.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 02:39 AM   #3146
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
So, with the one exception of Melbourne, there was very little Covid around in these two countries over the Winter period. Even much of regional Victoria was spared.
Let's be honest. Compared to many other countries there was very little Covid at any time in Australia and New Zealand, but not because those two countries were isolated and had 'hot' weather. Australia and New Zealand were in a worse position than many other places in the Northern hemisphere, both in regards to climate and isolation. In 2019 9.4 million tourists visited Australia, and 11 million Aussies went on overseas trips, in a country of only 25 million people. And one of the most popular destinations was - China.

Cases in Australia and New Zealand initially rose at a similar rate to other countries that did much worse, showing that it had the potential to hit you very hard. The reason you managed to keep the numbers down was not geography, but that you made a serious effort to squash the virus.

So when someone says you'll be held up as an example of 'territorial anomalies which had the advantage of remoteness and hot weather' rather than actions taken by the people, I have to wonder about their motives.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 02:46 AM   #3147
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From the Oxford university site -

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23...vid-19-vaccine


Answering my previous question - none of those who were vaccinated showed severe symptoms or needed hospitalisation.

Last edited by Lplus; 23rd November 2020 at 02:47 AM.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:05 AM   #3148
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
And now results for the Oxford/Astra zeneca Vaccine

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection
The reporting of this has been a bit confused, it seems it's a bit more complicated and, with the correct dosing, it's as good as the others:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ord-university

Quote:
Oxford University said interim analysis from its phase 3 vaccine trial showed that the efficacy of their vaccine is 70%. But that came from combining the results of two different dosing regimes, one of which was 90% and the other was 62%. The 90% regime involved a half-dose first and then a full dose of the vaccine later.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:12 AM   #3149
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The reporting of this has been a bit confused, it seems it's a bit more complicated and, with the correct dosing, it's as good as the others:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ord-university
Indeed - the BBC report did include the increased protection from the low/high dose regimen. Not quite as good as the others, but good enough for me, that's for sure.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:20 AM   #3150
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Actually there have been plans in place for a long time, they are part of both the smallpox* response plan, and pandemic flu plan.

* In case of accidental or deliberate release.

Yes, I have heard about the plans. It was the "we-cannae-dae-that" moaning minnies in this thread I was criticising.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:25 AM   #3151
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
And now results for the Oxford/Astra zeneca Vaccine

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

Not as good as the MRNA vaccines from the states* but still good. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had produced 70% "protection" they would still have been lauded to the heavens.

A few questions though

Of those 30 who did show symptoms, did any get severe symptoms or die? and what about the 100 who were not vaccinated and showed symptoms?

Why mention only 20,000 people half in the UK and half in Brasil. There were supposed to be 30,000 subjects tested in the USA

The improved results for the low dose - high dose vaccinations are interesting. I wonder if there are enough test results to prove that is definitely the way to proceed.
They tried two regimes, one is 90% effective the other 60%. Above 50% is successful. This is the only study reported that is also monitoring infectivity, apart from clinical cases they also regularly swabbed to look for asymptomatic infection, this will be interesting.

* I think 'Lander' is the term the Germans use rather than states, but we usually just talk about Germany.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:30 AM   #3152
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
They tried two regimes, one is 90% effective the other 60%. Above 50% is successful. This is the only study reported that is also monitoring infectivity, apart from clinical cases they also regularly swabbed to look for asymptomatic infection, this will be interesting.

* I think 'Lander' is the term the Germans use rather than states, but we usually just talk about Germany.
When a UK person refers to " the states" we tend to mean the USA. Since I was under the (possibly mistaken) impression that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were developed in the USA, that's what I was referring to.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:35 AM   #3153
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
When a UK person refers to " the states" we tend to mean the USA. Since I was under the (possibly mistaken) impression that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were developed in the USA, that's what I was referring to.
"Pfizer" vaccine was developed in Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioNTech
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:44 AM   #3154
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The reporting of this has been a bit confused, it seems it's a bit more complicated and, with the correct dosing, it's as good as the others:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ord-university
Also of note this is a not-for-profit vaccine.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:45 AM   #3155
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
"Pfizer" vaccine was developed in Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioNTech
Thank you for the information. Clearly I was mistaken
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:49 AM   #3156
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Also of note this is a not-for-profit vaccine.
Whilst there is a pandemic, certainly. Once the pandemic is over, I would expect any further use of the vaccine to maintain control to involve at least some profit for the manufacturing organisation.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 04:38 AM   #3157
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The goal of a vaccine is to make itself redundant by eradicating the disease. Obviously this will take some time in global terms though, so I hope the intention isn't to fleece the poorer countries who are likely to be a bit behind the curve in that phase of the operation.

It's important that drug companies make enough profit from their products to be able to finance the investment in the next new advance. The "burden" of providing that profit should not be unfairly loaded on those least able to pay.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 04:44 AM   #3158
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The goal of a vaccine is to make itself redundant by eradicating the disease. Obviously this will take some time in global terms though, so I hope the intention isn't to fleece the poorer countries who are likely to be a bit behind the curve in that phase of the operation.

It's important that drug companies make enough profit from their products to be able to finance the investment in the next new advance. The "burden" of providing that profit should not be unfairly loaded on those least able to pay.
Presumably the pandemic will not be declared over by the WHO until the virus is under control everywhere.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 06:40 AM   #3159
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Mod WarningFolks - I've started a specific thread for the supply, distribution and rollout of the various vaccines: http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=348077

Description for the new thread:
This thread is about the supply, distribution and rollout of the various covid vaccines but mainly about the science and facts behind how the vaccines should be used. Since this will of course involve political decisions I'll allow discussion of politics that are directly related to the topic. General bashing of politicians etc won't be allowed.


It would be impossible to keep politics out of a discussion about that topic as politicians will be making the decisions so please use that thread and leave this one for the "pure" science.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 08:12 AM   #3160
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
The reinfections of actual COVID-19 indicates that immunity lasts about six months, T-cells notwithstanding.
It's likely not going to be a hard and fast "it lasts 6 months" More likely it will be a gradual decline so if resistance "lasts 1 year" some people will still get re-infected before that while most will still have at least some resistance after 1 year (so R would still be lower than it would be without the vaccine).

The important question that still needs more research is how serious a second infection or infection after the vaccine begins to wear off will be. Hopefully subsequent infections will be less likely to turn serious but there isn't enough data to say one way or another at this point.
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