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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 26th November 2018, 11:20 PM   #441
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Which will be in May.
It's gonna be a LOOOOOOOOOOONG Christmas full of sniping and excuses. CANNOT wait for that.
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Old 27th November 2018, 12:23 AM   #442
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Julia Banks has just announced that she will leave the Liberal Party and become an Independent, and will not contest her seat as a Liberal Party member at the next election.

Which will be in May.
Maybe not May. With Banks going the chances of a no confidence motion increases.

But you are probably right. Self interest will mean the loony cross benchers will vote with the coalition.
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Old 27th November 2018, 01:21 AM   #443
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I would love to watch question time sometime between now and the election. Lucky the police have no say. Or they might object to the verbal violence.
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Old 27th November 2018, 02:32 PM   #444
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Reading yesterday's Senate Hansard is fun. Grab the PDF and start at Page 42: Menindee Lakes. This is the standard being set in our Upper House right now.
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Old 27th November 2018, 04:07 PM   #445
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Reading yesterday's Senate Hansard is fun. Grab the PDF and start at Page 42: Menindee Lakes. This is the standard being set in our Upper House right now.
There was a standard? Really?
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Old 27th November 2018, 04:16 PM   #446
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
There was a standard? Really?
It was a low bar, but somehow yesterday they still managed to limbo under it.
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Old 27th November 2018, 06:35 PM   #447
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I'm surprised and disappointed Chris Pyne is one of the lead instigators in the tit-for-tat scuffle over Banks departure to the cross-bench. I honestly expected a lot better of him than that.
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Old 27th November 2018, 07:47 PM   #448
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I'm surprised and disappointed Chris Pyne is one of the lead instigators in the tit-for-tat scuffle over Banks departure to the cross-bench. I honestly expected a lot better of him than that.
Really? I didn't. The man's a slimeball.
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Old 28th November 2018, 02:52 AM   #449
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Maybe not May. With Banks going the chances of a no confidence motion increases.

But you are probably right. Self interest will mean the loony cross benchers will vote with the coalition.
That's a little unfair. The only lower house crossbencher I'd describe as a loony is Katter, the rest are in the upper house. I might not agree with Sharkie, Bandt, Phelps, Banks, McGowan and Wilkie on all the issues, but they all seem like smart, sensible people at least.
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Old 28th November 2018, 03:57 PM   #450
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Who's taking bets on the next Liberal defector?
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Old 28th November 2018, 06:53 PM   #451
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Who's taking bets on the next Liberal defector?
Turnbull is.
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Old 29th November 2018, 04:33 PM   #452
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Part-time parliament; full-time civil war: Shorten’s parting shot to Morrison

Quote:
Bill Shorten has bookended a horror parliamentary week for the Morrison government with a full-throated parliamentary onslaught, declaring the parliament is “part-time under this prime minister, but the civil war in the Liberal party is a full-time occupation”.
Ladies and gentlemen, you're looking at the next Prime Minister. I'm not saying he'll be a great PM, but he'll be better than the last three.
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Old 1st December 2018, 01:10 PM   #453
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An interesting analysis of the dysfunctional Morrison government by Laura Tingle:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...ction/10572068

Something I had not heard about before:

Quote:
And there's the image of the Prime Minister walking out — breaking one of the few remaining protocols in the Parliament — as a new independent MP, Kerryn Phelps, gets to her feet to give her maiden speech.

There is little wonder we hold MP's in such low regard now. What is seen as their normal standard of behaviour is appalling.
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Old 1st December 2018, 09:34 PM   #454
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Really? I didn't. The man's a slimeball.
Absolutely. He’s symbolic of everything that is wrong with the Libs. Born to rule toff.
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Old 1st December 2018, 09:46 PM   #455
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I think the Libs will implode soon. Going back in time their “broad church” worked in uniting people against a clearly socialist ALP. This all changed with Hawke and Keating, who pinched all the good Lib policies and kept ALPs social agenda. Howard leveraged fear and xenophobia and was blessed with the best economical run for decades, but since then the party has been struggling.

Where are they now? Yes they won SA, but I’d like to think that was because SA likes to look edgy. They were thrashed in WA, Qld, Vic and soon NSW. When they lose 60-70 seats in the next Federal election, I predict the Nats will withdraw from the Coalition. The Libs will then try to regain the Centre in vain, or move further right, and slowly sink.

I can’t wait.
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Old 1st December 2018, 10:09 PM   #456
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No, it wasn't due to "edginess" the SA Electoral Commission fiddles with the electorates to try and make them into marginal Labor/Liberal seats.

It's a weird feature of the SA Constitution.

IIRC there was a swing towards Labor last election, but not enough to overcome the new boundaries.

Edited to add (from Antony Green):

Quote:
As outlined in my pre-election summary on the ABC Elections website, a major redistribution took place in 2016. Applying South Australia's unique 'fairness' provision, the boundaries were re-drawn so that a repeat of the 2014 election result should deliver a Liberal majority government. The new boundaries required the Weatherill Labor government gain a 3% swing in its favour to win re-election in 2018.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...ection/9612312
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Old 1st December 2018, 10:30 PM   #457
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
No, it wasn't due to "edginess" the SA Electoral Commission fiddles with the electorates to try and make them into marginal Labor/Liberal seats.

It's a weird feature of the SA Constitution.

IIRC there was a swing towards Labor last election, but not enough to overcome the new boundaries.

Edited to add (from Antony Green):



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...ection/9612312
Fair enough. You would know better. But it’s hard to understand how SA can elect a Lib government.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 01:53 AM   #458
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
But it’s hard to understand how SA can elect a Lib government.
The SA election was held long before the Turnbull government imploded and everything was still ho hum.

I don't know much about SA politics but the LNP government must have been doing "all right". Otherwise they would have been thrown out on their ear like the WA LNP government was.

Remember, oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:11 AM   #459
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And we're off and running in the next NSW state election! Libs out of the gate first with a Jobson Grothe gambit.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:20 AM   #460
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
And we're off and running in the next NSW state election! Libs out of the gate first with a Jobson Grothe gambit.
I don’t get the Eels player reference and can’t really be stuffed looking it up.

You no doubt know the feel in NSW. What’s your call for the election?
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:26 AM   #461
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Just as an aside, although an avid ALP supporter (I did vote against Rudd in 2007 though) I have decided to sell shares (mainly BHP) because Labor will abolish the 50% CGT discount. It’s absolutely the right decision, like the crackdown on negative gearing. But I’ve decided to get out in time.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:45 AM   #462
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You guys see the grin on Morrison’s face as a reporter was asking Trump about whether he would be exchanging pleasantries with Putin? May as well enjoy his ringside seat to the American circus while he can.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:53 AM   #463
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A kid at a circus.

We have had embarrassing PMs in recent years, but this bloke takes the cake.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:55 AM   #464
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I don’t get the Eels player reference and can’t really be stuffed looking it up.

You no doubt know the feel in NSW. What’s your call for the election?
Just read the name out loud.

Libs will get a trouncing. Not that Labor deserve to win, just that they will be the last ones standing.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 02:56 AM   #465
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
A kid at a circus.

We have had embarrassing PMs in recent years, but this bloke takes the cake.
If he can get taken in hook, line and sinker by the execrable Hillsong Lite crowd he hangs with, this G20 will be like a seven-year-old at Disneyland for the first time.
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Old 2nd December 2018, 03:06 AM   #466
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Just read the name out loud.
I don’t often need to have things like this explained to me, so thanks.

Mind you, Jobson looks like a piece of work.....
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Old 2nd December 2018, 03:17 AM   #467
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Here they all are, the NSW Libs trying to look happy as though they have not been shot in the back by their federal mates! Do they remember which state their chief wrecker Abbott lives in?

And here's the pointless first advert!
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Old 2nd December 2018, 06:26 AM   #468
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Fair enough. You would know better. But it’s hard to understand how SA can elect a Lib government.
It's honestly rather simple really. In 2010 and 2014 the SA elections were won by Labor with a minority of the vote. After the 2010 election the SAEC basically gave up on redrawing the boundaries partly because the result was mainly Liberal seats becoming more Liberal which doesn't really translate well into redrawing boundaries. After 2014 they had more data to work with allowing them to redraw the boundaries creating 4 notionally Liberal seats.

In the election this year three of those seats elected a liberal candidate, the seat of Mawson was an outlier falling to Labor. The ALP also lost Florey after a preselection thing, and the new nominally Labor seat of King also fell to the Liberals.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 01:39 PM   #469
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Here we go. Morrison is shoring up his grip on the leadership.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...al-pm/10579390


Quote:
From now on, two-thirds of the party room will need to support a leadership spill. The higher threshold has been described as the biggest change to Liberal Party processes in more than 70 years.

But I ask "Is this democracy?"

Perhaps Morrison will introduce other provisos along the same line, like it needs a two-thirds majority to go against the leader on whatever. How can this work I wonder if he doesn't?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 04:13 PM   #470
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Here we go. Morrison is shoring up his grip on the leadership.
Yeah, pretty much same thing Labor did five years ago, and for the same reason.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 05:06 PM   #471
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yeah, pretty much same thing Labor did five years ago, and for the same reason.

Not quite, Labor brought in a rather silly 60%/75% rule.

And it would seem the National body weren't impressed so they left it out of the constitution.

Quote:
When the ALP National Conference, the party's supreme rules and decision-making body, last met in 2015, it abandoned the 60 per cent/75 per cent requirement for dumping a leader by simply leaving it out of the party's constitution.

That means it remains a caucus rule and if somebody wants to move against a leader, they just need 51 per cent to knock off the rule.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 06:28 PM   #472
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Here we go. Morrison is shoring up his grip on the leadership.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...al-pm/10579390





But I ask "Is this democracy?"

Perhaps Morrison will introduce other provisos along the same line, like it needs a two-thirds majority to go against the leader on whatever. How can this work I wonder if he doesn't?
What it will mean is one of two absolutely horrible scenarios:

First, with such a faction-ridden party, it is almost inconceivable that any one member can get the two-thirds backing to become PM in the first place. It will be a permanent stand-off with two groups at each end of the room shouting insults and throwing food at each other. SO professional.

And second, that if a complete freaking tosser like Abbott or Dutton get the top job (all the deities forbid!), they will never get tossed out because nobody else could get anywhere near enough support to even try. Permanent consignment to oblivion as a party.

But this is the level of silliness the Libs have descended to.
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Old 4th December 2018, 03:11 AM   #473
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Fair enough. You would know better. But it’s hard to understand how SA can elect a Lib government.
It's a funny thing. I often meet people who are the most hurt by Liberal policies, who always vote Liberal (people on Disability Pension for example).

Someone coined the term "aspirational voters" which is a kind of cargo cult thinking...

In a nutshell, "If I act like a rich person, I'll become a rich person."

But probably not as consciously thought through as that...
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Old 4th December 2018, 01:09 PM   #474
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
It's a funny thing. I often meet people who are the most hurt by Liberal policies, who always vote Liberal (people on Disability Pension for example).

Someone coined the term "aspirational voters" which is a kind of cargo cult thinking...

In a nutshell, "If I act like a rich person, I'll become a rich person."

But probably not as consciously thought through as that...

Alf Garnet in "To Death Do Us Part" is perhaps a good example of this. An underlying fear of socialism, because they conflate this with communism, and a need to look up to and revere a class of folk, they see as born to rule. Monarchists to a man also, might I suggest.
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Old 5th December 2018, 03:47 AM   #475
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Say what you want about VICPOL, but those guys play to win! The fallout is going to be fascinating.
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Old 5th December 2018, 04:34 AM   #476
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Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK View Post
Say what you want about VICPOL, but those guys play to win! The fallout is going to be fascinating.
I’m going to start a thread about the “Witness X” stuff. I worked at a senior, unsworn level in Vicpol during this period and actually sat on Force Command. I think it is one of the best forces in the world. But this is a huge body blow to Victoria’s criminal justice system and will see convictions overturned, millions in compensation and the resignation of the CCP Ashton. Embarrassing and shameful.
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Old 5th December 2018, 05:35 AM   #477
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I’m going to start a thread about the “Witness X” stuff. I worked at a senior, unsworn level in Vicpol during this period and actually sat on Force Command. I think it is one of the best forces in the world. But this is a huge body blow to Victoria’s criminal justice system and will see convictions overturned, millions in compensation and the resignation of the CCP Ashton. Embarrassing and shameful.
Yeah, awfully efficient policing though! I'm most interested in how dozens of cases passed the DPP's sniff test and didn't end up in the carnage we're now seeing.
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Old 7th December 2018, 04:01 AM   #478
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I wonder what will happen when parliament resumes in February? The lower house sits for 7 days then. The Government will have to find enough votes to get any legislation passed without risking losing votes. Will be fun.

Could they have an election in late January? If so they risk losing badly.
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Old 7th December 2018, 05:32 PM   #479
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I wonder what will happen when parliament resumes in February? The lower house sits for 7 days then. The Government will have to find enough votes to get any legislation passed without risking losing votes. Will be fun.

Could they have an election in late January? If so they risk losing badly.

I think they may declare it a legislation free period and sit on their hands for a week.
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Old 7th December 2018, 05:42 PM   #480
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
I think they may declare it a legislation free period and sit on their hands for a week.
The bill to allow off shore refugees to access medical treatment in Australia remains on the table.

Politically this will be a tricky matter. If passed, as it probably will, Morrison may have his very own Tampa, and will use it for all its worth. This may prove to resonate in iNSW and Queensland. Could Labor be tempted to vote with the Coaltion to defuse the issue, and upset Victorians? I bet Labor hopes the whole thing disappears.
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