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Old Yesterday, 09:08 PM   #2481
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Could you explain this? I don't quite understand the "would happen regardless bit", but it seems like it would also apply to any evidence of something that happened in the past, including a natural spillover.

Why is the fact that natural spillover occurred in the past being used as evidence for a natural spillover theory, but the fact that lab leaks have occurred in the past discounted as evidence for a lab leak theory?
I would consider spillover to be the null hypothesis as it is for most outbreaks. That said, there are almost always accusations of lab leak or human engineering of viruses whenever there is a serious outbreak. They usually turn out not to be true (AIDS, Lassa fever, Ebola etc…)
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Old Yesterday, 09:15 PM   #2482
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Its not her ethnicity that is the issue, its the fact that she is a Chinese citizen and thus under the control of the CCP. China 2002 is not China 2021. If the CCP of 2021 tell her to hide evidence or delete databases or samples, or straight up lie, she will do those things or at best get jailed for "picking quarrels and causing trouble", "national security" or any other spurious charge; at worst she will get disappeared.

She may well be a paragon of scientific virtue. The CCP is not, and the sad fact is that we cannot really trust anything that comes out of China at the moment.
Sure, but we should at least listen to virologists who are not in the same situation, and most of them don’t see a reason to think it leaked from a lab.
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Old Yesterday, 10:46 PM   #2483
Roger Ramjets
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Its not her ethnicity that is the issue, its the fact that she is a Chinese citizen and thus under the control of the CCP. China 2002 is not China 2021. If the CCP of 2021 tell her to hide evidence or delete databases or samples, or straight up lie, she will do those things or at best get jailed for "picking quarrels and causing trouble", "national security" or any other spurious charge; at worst she will get disappeared.

She may well be a paragon of scientific virtue.
Let's not mince words here. If she was a 'paragon of scientific virtue' then she wouldn't hide evidence or lie - so what you are really saying is you don't trust her.

I don't trust her either. Being a true skeptic, I don't trust anybody, especially anyone pushing conspiracy theories about 'lab leaks'.
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Old Today, 12:08 AM   #2484
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Sure, but we should at least listen to virologists who are not in the same situation, and most of them don’t see a reason to think it leaked from a lab.
Do you have evidence of a survey of these virologists because what I see are that some support spillover, a few support the lab origin and the majority agree both origin hypotheses are still on the table.



Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
... I don't trust her either. Being a true skeptic, I don't trust anybody, especially anyone pushing conspiracy theories about 'lab leaks'.
Posting evidence is not "pushing" a CT. I'm not sure what category to put denial of evidence and attacking every source of that evidence as not qualified unless they are specifically virologists in. And one virologist, Dr Redfield, was dismissed out of hand.

There was a well documented concerted effort by certain people with conflicts of interest involved (Daszak, Shi, the Chinese government) to portray anyone suggesting this virus leaked from a lab as a conspiracy theorist. There is no conspiracy unless you want to call the Chinese government's lack of transparency a conspiracy.

While we in this forum are mostly aware of the true Scotsman fallacy, I find it interesting that more than a few people posting in this thread have as a knee-jerk reaction put the lab origin hypothesis into the CT category as if it must belong there. You are not a true skeptic unless you believe the spillover hypothesis?

A lab accident does not require a conspiracy. No one is asserting anything that is not supported by actual evidence. The lack of transparency by the Chinese government is well documented and persists despite multiple requests from the WHO to provide the information they have sought to investigate the origin of COVID. Daszak's efforts to claim the lab origin hypothesis is a CT before any evidence whatsoever was looked at re that origin hypothesis is well documented.

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Old Today, 01:58 AM   #2485
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Do you have evidence of a survey of these virologists because what I see are that some support spillover, a few support the lab origin and the majority agree both origin hypotheses are still on the table.
I would say the evidence is that the most influential paper on the subject has been by Andersen et. al.

I don't think there are any that have had a similar number of citations, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, looks like a new WHO origins team has been convened, so I guess we will have to see what they conclude, if anything.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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