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Old 4th January 2022, 09:08 AM   #1
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The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it

The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it

Quote:
Nobody wants what’s coming, so nobody wants to see what’s coming.

On the eve of the first civil war, the most intelligent, the most informed, the most dedicated people in the United States could not see it coming. Even when Confederate soldiers began their bombardment of Fort Sumter, nobody believed that conflict was inevitable. The north was so unprepared for the war they had no weapons.

In Washington, in the winter of 1861, Henry Adams, the grandson of John Quincy Adams, declared that “not one man in America wanted the civil war or expected or intended it”. South Carolina senator James Chestnut, who did more than most to bring on the advent of the catastrophe, promised to drink all the blood spilled in the entire conflict. The common wisdom at the time was that he would have to drink “not a thimble”.

The United States today is, once again, headed for civil war, and, once again, it cannot bear to face it. The political problems are both structural and immediate, the crisis both longstanding and accelerating. The American political system has become so overwhelmed by anger that even the most basic tasks of government are increasingly impossible.
With a warning to the left:

Quote:
At this supreme moment of crisis, the left has divided into warring factions completely incapable of confronting the seriousness of the moment. There are liberals who retain an unjustifiable faith that their institutions can save them when it is utterly clear that they cannot. Then there are the woke, educational and political elites dedicated to a discourse of willed impotence. Any institution founded by the woke simply eats itself – see TimesUp, the Women’s March, etc – becoming irrelevant to any but a diminishing cadre of insiders who spend most of their time figuring out how to shred whoever’s left. They render themselves powerless faster than their enemies can.

What the American left needs now is allegiance, not allyship. It must abandon any imagined fantasies about the sanctity of governmental institutions that long ago gave up any claim to legitimacy. Stack the supreme court, end the filibuster, make Washington DC a state, and let the dogs howl, and now, before it is too late. The moment the right takes control of institutions, they will use them to overthrow democracy in its most basic forms; they are already rushing to dissolve whatever norms stand in the way of their full empowerment.
I couldn't agree more. Stop sniping at each other over who's the most woke, choices of personal pronouns, and disintegrating into smaller and smaller special interest groups. If you don't unite with the less leftist Democrats, there won't be anything left to fight over! We'll all be dead, in prison camps, or at the very minimum, forced into silence!

Quote:
It would be entirely possible for the United States to implement a modern electoral system, to restore the legitimacy of the courts, to reform its police forces, to root out domestic terrorism, to alter its tax code to address inequality, to prepare its cities and its agriculture for the effects of climate change, to regulate and to control the mechanisms of violence. All of these futures are possible. There is one hope, however, that must be rejected outright: the hope that everything will work out by itself, that America will bumble along into better times. It won’t. Americans have believed their country is an exception, a necessary nation. If history has shown us anything it’s that the world doesn’t have any necessary nations.
Again, unite and fight before there is nothing left to fight for.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:15 AM   #2
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We certainly have the uncivil cold war getting worse by the day.

I fear we simply just don't have enough American voters who actually believe in Equality and too many who would be just fine with an oligarchy that simply kept the malls open.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:16 AM   #3
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Sadly, it seems both sides now believe they must destroy democracy to save it.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:18 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Sadly, it seems both sides now believe they must destroy democracy to save it.
Nonsense. The left is proposing to do things to strengthen democracy while the right is doing what it can to destroy it.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:23 AM   #5
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Oh you're just being dramatic hyperbolic. Oh and whataboutathis. No wait I demand you have a civil debate with me about why this is a bad thing. Wait no I changed my mind I demand the conversation stop until we define Civil War. "But both sides..."

There that covers all the troll arguments so the actual trolls don't have to bother making them.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:27 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Nonsense. The left is proposing to do things to strengthen democracy while the right is doing what it can to destroy it.
The writer is quite open about ensuring that the "right' never wins again:

Quote:
What the American left needs now is allegiance, not allyship. It must abandon any imagined fantasies about the sanctity of governmental institutions that long ago gave up any claim to legitimacy. Stack the supreme court, end the filibuster, make Washington DC a state, and let the dogs howl, and now, before it is too late. The moment the right takes control of institutions, they will use them to overthrow democracy in its most basic forms; they are already rushing to dissolve whatever norms stand in the way of their full empowerment.
That sounds like strengthening the Democrats, not strengthening democracy. And of course it begs the question: what if stacking the supreme court (sic) and making DC a state aren't enough?
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:30 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
That sounds like strengthening the Democrats, not strengthening democracy.
This is the kind of beyond insane argument people make with a straight face in a post fact world. A bog standard "One side can only win if they cheat, therefore if you don't want cheating that must mean you only want the other side to win" bit of insane troll logic.

One side makes both facts and basic human decency a partisan issue, so when facts or basic human decency are defended they can play the "Don't make it political card."

Pathetic.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:31 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
The writer is quite open about ensuring that the "right' never wins again:



That sounds like strengthening the Democrats, not strengthening democracy. And of course it begs the question: what if stacking the supreme court (sic) and making DC a state aren't enough?
Everything he wrote is about strengthening democracy. If the Democrats did what he said, the right could still win but they'd have to change strategy. They'd have to actually try to win voters and votes instead of destroying voter's rights and dismantling the election system.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:39 AM   #9
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To paraphrase a similar statement; Republicans are so against democracy they think everything done to protect democracy is an attack on them personally.
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Last edited by JoeMorgue; 4th January 2022 at 09:59 AM.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:47 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
To paraphrase a similar statement; Republicans are so against democracy they think everything thing done to protect democracy is an attack on them personally.
Yep. They think having the government elected by popular vote is bad. They believe that only white, christian mens' votes should matter and even then, only if those people vote republican.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:49 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Apathia View Post
We certainly have the uncivil cold war getting worse by the day.

I fear we simply just don't have enough American voters who actually believe in Equality and too many who would be just fine with an oligarchy that simply kept the malls open.
Too many Americans love bread and circuses. They're not willing to miss even a single meal or show to fight for democracy.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:53 AM   #12
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It seems trivially obvious that if you fight evil you're taking sides. So?

Have we come so far in the "teach the controversy" ******** that we must count all things as equivalent?
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:55 AM   #13
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The Republicans have successfully sold a lot of rubes on the idea that opposing them because they factually wrong and morally horrible is the same thing as a surface level, kneejerk political bias.

As well exampled in this and many other threads here on the board.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:59 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
Have we come so far in the "teach the controversy" ******** that we must count all things as equivalent?
That's really the only option the Proudly Wrong have.

The post-fact world isn't the goal, that's the method. Being able to just be wrong and destroy anyway of addressing it, to make every factual statement to be the same thing as prejudice or bias, is the goal.

They want to be able to just go "Oh you're just biased against me for being wrong and just horrible as a human being" to be something that makes sense and works in discourse, and they've pretty much got it.

And everyday that subtext slips more and more into the text because that's what they want. I've said it many times but the intended endstate of this is a totally detached from reality group that stops even trying to pretend they are factually correct or morally defensible going "Yeah I'm wrong and bad, stop me. Do something about it, I dare you."

It's trolling and misinformation as full psychological warfare.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:30 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Sadly, it seems both sides now believe they must destroy democracy to save it.
You are wrong again.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:31 AM   #16
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I don't dismiss the threat to our democracy but I'm just having trouble imagining what would define a civil war for us under these conditions. For instance, let us assume the states where Republicans control the legislature are able to successfully suppress/invalidate 50% of non-Republican votes. Does this mean Democrats in those states will take arms against the state legislatures? Or, would massive protests similar to what brought about the voting rights act constitute a civil war?

I agree the Republican actions are a threat to our democracy. However, I'm not sure I would see the end game as a civil war. To me, a civil war involves a significant portion of the population involved in an armed insurrection against the existing government. I just don't see that happening. However, I can imagine the gradual erosion of voting rights and civil liberties. This is more like the frog in the pot brought to a boil. We won't be convinced until our rights are completely gone.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:33 AM   #17
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*Standing in the rubble* You see guys the IMPORTANT thing is that I was right about this not technically being a Civil War because it didn't come from a certain region of Southern France, so technically it's an arachnid.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:37 AM   #18
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If our institutions were working even moderately well, Trump would be in prison.

Anyone putting faith in our institutions protecting themselves is denying reality.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:38 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Too many Americans love bread and circuses. They're not willing to miss even a single meal or show to fight for democracy.
Most aren't so much citizens as consumers. The right to consume is the preeminent human right that other rights can be sacrificed for. (See electronic and social media surveillance.) Candidates are chosen in a consumer frame of mind (as seen on TV). Citizenship is a once a year holiday sentiment.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:42 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by seayakin View Post
I don't dismiss the threat to our democracy but I'm just having trouble imagining what would define a civil war for us under these conditions. For instance, let us assume the states where Republicans control the legislature are able to successfully suppress/invalidate 50% of non-Republican votes. Does this mean Democrats in those states will take arms against the state legislatures? Or, would massive protests similar to what brought about the voting rights act constitute a civil war?

I agree the Republican actions are a threat to our democracy. However, I'm not sure I would see the end game as a civil war. To me, a civil war involves a significant portion of the population involved in an armed insurrection against the existing government. I just don't see that happening. However, I can imagine the gradual erosion of voting rights and civil liberties. This is more like the frog in the pot brought to a boil. We won't be convinced until our rights are completely gone.
Yes. I don't see how to do a war between the states when even the "Blue States" are rurally "Red."

And I suspect that "dictatorship" in America will simply take the form of restoration of white privilege and white culture, so that whites won't feel oppressed in the least.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:52 AM   #21
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Urging everyone to band together in sides and fight the enemy is what would cause a conflict. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or would be, except (as pointed out above), Americans are fat and lazy. As long as the current state of things is comfortable they will have insufficient motivation to endure discomfort in order to cause change. Sure, they'll complain on Facebook, but how many will crawl through mud, go without electricity, give up meals? Not enough to do a civil war. That requires an existential threat -- "we're going to destroy your livelihoods or exterminate your ethnic group", not "your manager will write you up if you call Pat from accounting a man".

And the other thing about civil war is that it occurs when the conflict is between factions of the people in power. All this talk and huff is promulgated by one faction of the powerful to keep themselves in power--they have no desire to overturn the applecart because that would unseat themselves as well. They just want to sit slightly higher up and have access to more of the best apples. At the end of the day the millionaire Republican is going to side with the millionaire Democrat, not some hick in a trailer. They just talk crap because their idiot bases respond to it and pay out with votes.

This is Karens throwing a fit in a Target because their coupon is expired.
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Old 4th January 2022, 10:53 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Apathia View Post
Yes. I don't see how to do a war between the states when even the "Blue States" are rurally "Red."



And I suspect that "dictatorship" in America will simply take the form of restoration of white privilege and white culture, so that whites won't feel oppressed in the least.
Damned if I didn't forget which state (Wisconsin I think) just revealed how afraid they are that the recent redistricting only netted them six of eight for the GOP. They're not sure they're safe without the 7-1 they were shooting for.
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Old 4th January 2022, 11:50 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
If our institutions were working even moderately well, Trump would be in prison.

Anyone putting faith in our institutions protecting themselves is denying reality.
He probably didn't break the law in(depending on what situation you are considering).
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Old 4th January 2022, 11:59 AM   #24
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An opinion piece in the NYTimes seems relevant.

Quote:
The most important fact about the Trump era, though, can be gleaned simply by examining his vote tallies and approval ratings: At no point in his political career — not a single day — has Mr. Trump enjoyed the support of the majority of the country he governed for four years. And whatever else Jan. 6 might have been, it should be understood first and foremost as an expression of disbelief in — or at least a rejection of — that reality. Rather than accepting, in defeat, that much more of their country lay outside their ken than they’d known, his supporters proclaimed themselves victors and threw a deadly and historic tantrum.

The riot was an attack on our institutions, and of course, inflammatory conservative rhetoric and social media bear some of the blame. But our institutions also helped produce that violent outburst by building a sense of entitlement to power within America’s conservative minority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/o...e=articleShare

The essay points out so much of our current system is undemocratically rigged to favor the conservative minority of this country. Demanding that the minority rule over the majority is fully in the spirit of the US Constitution.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:02 PM   #25
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That's a double edge sword.

1. Trump, at absolute best giving him all the benefits of all the doubts, enjoyed the support of ~45% of the population at most no matter the question and how it was asked; elections, proxy elections of people who were basically running on "Trump Likes Me", opinion pools, approval pools.

2. ... of people who actually showed up and voted, voiced their opinion, or made their voice heard which was never all that much.

Which leads us right to the problem. The thing we as a society always fight over but by definition almost can't have a answer. "Who are the unvoiced and who side are they on?"
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:07 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
That's a double edge sword.

1. Trump, at absolute best giving him all the benefits of all the doubts, enjoyed the support of ~45% of the population at most no matter the question and how it was asked; elections, proxy elections of people who were basically running on "Trump Likes Me", opinion pools, approval pools.

2. ... of people who actually showed up and voted, voiced their opinion, or made their voice heard which was never all that much.

Which leads us right to the problem. The thing we as a society always fight over but by definition almost can't have a answer. "Who are the unvoiced and who side are they on?"
That's all well and good, but Trump never actually won a popular vote ever even among those who did vote. We don't have to wonder, the voting electorate chose someone else, but the electoral college is one of several undemocratic mechanisms built into our system.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:13 PM   #27
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It's not so much that Trump supporters (active or passive) don't realize that less than half of the voters support Trump; it's that they firmly believe that only pro-trump votes should count and that therefore all other votes should be disqualified for being insufficiently patriotic.
For the majority of Republicans, Democrats are just not actually Americans; most don't even count as humans as far as they are concerned.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:16 PM   #28
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Also you don't need a majority when your goal is to tear the system down and your tactic is "I can do anything I want unless somebody stops me."

When you're basically the political equivalent of a suicide bomber you don't need to match the enemy in manpower.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:23 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Apathia View Post
Yes. I don't see how to do a war between the states when even the "Blue States" are rurally "Red."

And I suspect that "dictatorship" in America will simply take the form of restoration of white privilege and white culture, so that whites won't feel oppressed in the least.
I agree completely - the return of Jim Crow v. 2.0.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:27 PM   #30
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I imagine it will be very much like Russia's "democracy" where supporters of the party don't understand, or care, that it's really a dictatorship.
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Old 4th January 2022, 12:34 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
That's all well and good, but Trump never actually won a popular vote ever even among those who did vote. We don't have to wonder, the voting electorate chose someone else, but the electoral college is one of several undemocratic mechanisms built into our system.
Neither did Hitler.
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Old 4th January 2022, 02:24 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Sadly, it seems both sides now believe they must destroy democracy to save it.
Nope.

Democrats: Want to ensure that every American who wants to vote is able to. They want to limit the effects of things like Gerrymandering, so that political representation better represents voter intentions.

That is pro-democracy.

Republicans: Want to suppress the votes of people less likely to vote for them. They are quite happy getting assistance from foreign governments. And if they should lose? Many want to claim "stolen election", and overturn the election.

That is Destroying democracy.
Quote:
The writer is quite open about ensuring that the "right' never wins again:
Gee... a desire that those who cheat should lose. How... what's the opposite of "bad"?

If the political "right" cannot win in a fair election fight (without suppressing votes, without gerrymandering, etc.) then perhaps they should consider adopting policies that voters might actually like.

Republicans: "Even though our 'kick voters in the groin' policy is not very popular, we think its anti-democratic if we aren't given political power, even though most voters do not want to be kicked in the groin".

Quote:
Quote:
What the American left needs now is allegiance, not allyship. It must abandon any imagined fantasies about the sanctity of governmental institutions that long ago gave up any claim to legitimacy. Stack the supreme court, end the filibuster, make Washington DC a state, and let the dogs howl, and now, before it is too late. The moment the right takes control of institutions, they will use them to overthrow democracy in its most basic forms; they are already rushing to dissolve whatever norms stand in the way of their full empowerment.
That sounds like strengthening the Democrats, not strengthening democracy.
Whether you like it or not, making democracy stronger DOES strengthen the democrats. That tends to happen when one party has policies that appeal to a wider group of voters than a party that has less popular policies but tries to hold onto power through tricks like voter suppression.

As for the proposed actions...

- The republicans have been acting in bad faith over court nominations at least since Obama was president. Taking actions like stacking the court is nothing more than levelling the playing field. Why should the democrats "play fair" when the republicans are playing dirty?

- Ending the fillibuster... the republicans did it over supreme court nominees... why should the democrats follow a set of rules when the republicans are likely to throw out those rules when it is convenient for them?

- Making DC a state? There are millions of people who live there. Seems like giving them the right to fully participate in the political process seems like the right thing to do.
Quote:
And of course it begs the question: what if stacking the supreme court (sic) and making DC a state aren't enough?
They will probably do what they did when Stubby McBonespurs won in 2016 (thanks to Russian interference and a favorable electoral college)... accept the results and try to improve things.

This puts them apart from the republicans, who got the results of the 2020 election, and instead of accepting them (and then trying to improve their situation), they immediately claimed the election was stolen, followed by the support of the Jan 6 terrorist attack.
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Old 4th January 2022, 03:33 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Jim_MDP View Post
Damned if I didn't forget which state (Wisconsin I think) just revealed how afraid they are that the recent redistricting only netted them six of eight for the GOP. They're not sure they're safe without the 7-1 they were shooting for.
Go Cheeseheads!
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Old 4th January 2022, 03:37 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I imagine it will be very much like Russia's "democracy" where supporters of the party don't understand, or care, that it's really a dictatorship.
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Old 4th January 2022, 04:21 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
The writer is quite open about ensuring that the "right' never wins again:
And the right should not be allowed to win if their intention is to create a right wing dictatorship... which is the road the US is heading down quicker than you think

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...0-trump-canada

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
That sounds like strengthening the Democrats, not strengthening democracy. And of course it begs the question: what if stacking the supreme court (sic) and making DC a state aren't enough?
No country should ever have to be in a fight between its political wings to preserve voting rights for every citizen. At this very moment, the right in the US is doing everything it can to make it harder to vote for those sections of the electorate who are more likely to be Democrat voters...Blacks, students and the poor. They are doing this is plain sight, under the guise of "election security".

NO OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WESTERN WORLD DOES THIS. In the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, for example the governments do everything they can to make sure that everyone who is entitled to vote (every citizen of voting age and over of any race, colour or ethnicity) has the opportunity do so.
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Old 4th January 2022, 06:47 PM   #36
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The problem with the civil war argument is it ignores the sheer quantity of violence leading up to the civil war in the decades before. People in the US are nowhere near that.
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Old 4th January 2022, 07:13 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The problem with the civil war argument is it ignores the sheer quantity of violence leading up to the civil war in the decades before. People in the US are nowhere near that.
You seem sad about that.
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Old 4th January 2022, 07:28 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The problem with the civil war argument is it ignores the sheer quantity of violence leading up to the civil war in the decades before. People in the US are nowhere near that.
Lets see.... within the past decade you have:

- One party that openly supported a terrorist uprising (during which several police officers were beaten) after they lost the election.

- One party (strangely enough the same party) has given firm support to a leader who said that neo-Nazis were "fine people", that the "second amendment" could be used on his opponents, and that he would support anyone who engaged in violence on his behalf at rallies.

- One party (again, the same party, what are the odds) has members of congress who not only have engaged in bigoted rhetoric, but have complained about not being able to bring guns into congress. Other members of that same party have decided that that is acceptable.

- One party (hmmm... I sense a pattern here) has engaged in rhetoric which has inspired various political acts of violence (targeting media, politicians for kidnapping)

- One party (can you guess which?) has stood behind tactics such as teargassing peaceful protesters (so that one of their politcians can do a photo-op), and transferring military equipment to the police

Can you guess which party that is? Yup, its the republicans.

Not only that, you also have:

- A sharp in crease in right-wing extremist terrorist activity over the past 2 decades. (Right-wing extremism currently makes up the majority of terrorist activity, beating left-wing, environmentalist and islamic terrorism combined) see: CSIS

- Police willing to engage in rather... brutal tactics... against minorities and civil rights protestors (which differs from the way they handle right-wing/white criminals), and seem unwilling to correct the problems

Looks like the violence is already here.
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Old 4th January 2022, 08:22 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Lets see.... within the past decade you have:
Ehhhh... you're not wrong exactly, but he does have a point. The lead up to the Civil War included incidents like the John Brown Rebellion, which made it pretty clear there was a violent war on the way from one direction or the other on the slavery issue. Today there's lots of rhetoric from the powers that be condoning independently-conducted violence, but little enough organized violence from those powers. If anything this is more like the late Weimar Republic build up to Nazi fascism, but that's more because it's being used as a playbook than history repeating on its own.

Quote:
- Police willing to engage in rather... brutal tactics... against minorities and civil rights protestors (which differs from the way they handle right-wing/white criminals), and seem unwilling to correct the problems
But THIS is wrong though. This is not new behaviour. Cops have always been like this. Always. This is not new. The only new thing is the existence of an independent source of evidence in people's cell phone cameras, so that when cops say "the suspect reached for a gun," footage can exist to belie their claim.
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Old 4th January 2022, 09:19 PM   #40
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*rounds up guns and ammo and bunkers down under the front porch, awaiting the onslaught of Republican warriors*

*realizes they all went to bed already and/or are watching Netflix*

*goes to bed watching Netflix*


Really feel like Wars should be more dramatic than this.
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