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Tags Venezuela incidents , Venezuela issues , Venezuela politics

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Old 23rd August 2018, 06:12 AM   #241
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
The country has not been able to break away from the condition commonly referred to as the Dutch disease. Chavez tenure is certainly no exception in this regard.
Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
Venezuela having been one of the most important oil producers in the past has no bearing on whether we should think the country suffers from the Dutch disease.
You should have known that googling your way away wouldn't help you much. You switched to Venezuela: Anatomy of a Collapse edited by Hausmann and Rodríguez, which is fully searchable and copypastable for you to go on in your dialectics on the fly, hence the charged with vocabulary yet broken argumentation of your last post.

You have failed to argue why the Chilean case is so different than the Venezuelan one, provided they are equally "dutched". You have failed to relate the Venezuelan case with the mismanagement of PDVSA, the absence of a countercyclical fund, and the needs of populism pre, during and post Chávez.

When one talks about Economics, one uses figures and graphics, something you discovered later in this discussion (post #226) when you changed your horse in the middle of crossing the river. You wouldn't know that suddenly acquired "proficiency" ended showing how little you know about the Venezuelan case. Your own graphic at the bottom of post #226 shows how a continuous decline suddenly becomes an "economic boom" precisely the very moment the strictest foreign exchange controls are put in place, with multiple rates, quotas and prohibitions, and their natural repercussions on national accounting which translate in an increasing overestimation of the standard of living that even the IMF could not sieved.

In truth the evolution of the GDP per capita in constant values has a negative slope during Chávez' "reign" (as you like to call it). The same in recent years showing that the abrupt drop is a great deal the call for realistic figures.

How far is that from the rise from 4000 u$s to 12000 u$s you pretended to use to mojonear (Venezuelan) about Chávez' success (or impotency against the deep structural forces of the economy, as your story changed)?
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Old 23rd August 2018, 06:18 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
This squabble about the GDP statistics is pointless.

You don't need GDP figures to know that Venezuela is a catastrophe. Countries which are doing well don't produce refugee crises. And the disaster is not due to the fall in oil prices. Oil prices are above where they were when Chavez took office. Chavez destroyed Venezuela, not bad luck, not saboteurs, not Bush or Obama or Trump, not any of the other countless excuses Maduro will come up with. That's the heart of the matter.
As half the people in Latin America say: "people is masochist as there are paradises for the poor and the blue collars from which millions are trying to flee, and there are capitalist hells of inequality where millions are trying to enter"
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Old 23rd August 2018, 06:50 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN
You have failed to argue why the Chilean case is so different than the Venezuelan one, provided they are equally "dutched". You have failed to relate the Venezuelan case with the mismanagement of PDVSA, the absence of a countercyclical fund, and the needs of populism pre, during and post Chávez.
They are not necessarily "equally dutched" even though they both might be "dutched". Moreover, it's not at all given that both countries should find themselves on a similar developmental path.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 06:57 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
Venezuela having been one of the most important oil producers in the past has no bearing on whether we should think the country suffers from the Dutch disease. And as Hausmann has suggested, it's not necessarily the below average growth rates in resource abundant countries that matters but "their incapacity to recover from adverse shocks".
OK, let's take this as true. What, then, was the adverse shock that Venezuela is now manifestly unable to recover from?

It isn't the decline in oil prices. Trouble started even before then, and the current prices aren't that low. And other oil-dependent states have weathered that OK. The adverse shock that has destroyed Venezuela was Chavez.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 07:21 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
They are not necessarily "equally dutched" even though they both might be "dutched". Moreover, it's not at all given that both countries should find themselves on a similar developmental path.

Not really a response. Try again. Comparative advantages have always existed and explained, but that doesn't affect the Venezuelan case.

(Do you call your non-sequiturs "moreover"?)
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Old 23rd August 2018, 07:46 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
The adverse shock that has destroyed Venezuela was Chavez.

He took a zero-sum economy -as shown by lupus_in_fabula-, and keep it that way by taking the ability of the country to amass capital and by taking part of the incomes of the middle class in order to distribute them to the poor, mainly the unemployed. Not to mention all the corruption money in the way, like those false contracts to prune trees that wound up leaving up to 70% of Venezuela without electricity in days of strong wind.


One of the way he used was the empresas recuperadas (recovered companies), meaning a company in trouble or having unpayable tax debts is taken and managed by its employees, with the government paying the bills that start to accumulate. That is done all over Latin America -in my country, with a pseudo-conservative government there are hundreds of them- because it's cheaper than paying unemployment. Of course those companies wind up becoming empty shells so "socially sensible" governments take those employees and place them in other empresas recuperadas or directly in the public sector.


What Chávez and his minions did is repeating that scheme is large scale, calling it "socialism" for electoral purposes. Besides each company has a general or colonel who controls the till and distribute backhandlers up in the chain of command. With dirty business is such a scale is no wonder they end up needing to take complete control of justice and congress.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 08:02 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
OK, let's take this as true. What, then, was the adverse shock that Venezuela is now manifestly unable to recover from?

It isn't the decline in oil prices. Trouble started even before then, and the current prices aren't that low. And other oil-dependent states have weathered that OK. The adverse shock that has destroyed Venezuela was Chavez.
In short: no other (non-oil) industrial sector is developed enough to be able to compete on global markets thus there's no other engine sufficient enough for growth other than the primary resource sector. Failure to maintain the primary (oil-) sector's productive capacity makes the situation even worse.

When oil production and revenue decline, the overly oil-dependent country (in terms of oil revenue as a share of total export and government revenue) struggles to find alternative paths to sustain robust economic growth. Deterioration is often worsened by pro cyclical investment decisions. The problem turns structural and becomes self-enforcing. Policy makers find themselves in a predicament; during bad times fiscal space is constrained and during booms there are difficulties to find and use revenue for targets which could provide for robust growth should the boom in the primary resource sector end. Hence a substantial rise in primary resource revenue can potentially become a ticking time-bomb as revenue tend to become squandered as no strategically beneficial outlets are capable of turning revenue into productive use.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 09:20 AM   #248
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Venezuela Says China Investing $250 Million to Boost Oil Output
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ost-oil-output

Erm. Is China propping up Maduro?

Could this end with China "owning" the most oil-rich country on earth in America's backyard?
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Old 23rd August 2018, 09:50 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Venezuela Says China Investing $250 Million to Boost Oil Output
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ost-oil-output

Erm. Is China propping up Maduro?
Yes.

Quote:
Could this end with China "owning" the most oil-rich country on earth in America's backyard?
Unlikely. Venezuela could still default on their loans from China, and it's too far away for China to exert military pressure on them. What China is probably hoping for from the deal is simply a source of cheap oil. They don't need control of the country for that, and probably don't want control, given what a **** hole Venezuela is becoming. They just want to be a favored customer.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 10:15 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post

You have failed to argue why the Chilean case is so different than the Venezuelan one, provided they are equally "dutched".
They are not, that’s the point. Having an easy to produce high value export like oil tends result in large exports of that item. This in turn drives up currency values. Higher currency values make other exports less desirable and imports more desirable which makes it much more difficult for domestic businesses to compete.

Since the product is easy to produce it results in relatively few high paying jobs, while at the same time inhibiting growth of other domestic business and the jobs they could potentially produce. The end result is usually a weak one dimensional economy with relatively few good jobs and a lot of inequality.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 10:35 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
They are not, that’s the point. Having an easy to produce high value export like oil tends result in large exports of that item. This in turn drives up currency values.
Maduro has certainly solved that problem.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 11:13 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by lomiller
They are not, that’s the point.
You obviously know nothing about Chile. Her copper exports totalled 34 billion usdollars in 2017, around 50% of her total exports of 68.3 billions, and with a socialist president (a real one, Michelle Bachelet). Meanwhile Venezuela exported 29.2 billions under fascist Maduro, being 98.3% of it oil and related products.

The point is Chile did something during decades to avoid the dependency from copper exports while Venezuelan governments did everything to screw every sector of her economy until they have even screwed the oil industry.

Venezuela, with more than 210 million acres of land blessed by nature can't only provide 40% of the food needs of her only 32 million inhabitants.

That's why I have a Chilean fridge in my house and I eat every week Chilean mussels or jack mackerel. I would be very surprised finding in it something made in Venezuela.

The moral is: it's "Dutch" nothing. Every country has comparative advantages and if those can't provide enough good jobs for the population the country has to find effective policies to achieve a harmonious economic growth. Chile did that with socialist presidents half the time and a congress dominated by the left most of the time. And by doing that Chile real GDP per capita grew 60% from 1999 to 2013 (with honest statistics) while Venezuela's "grew" 14.5% (with partially faked ones).
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Old 23rd August 2018, 11:30 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat
Quote:
Originally Posted by lomiller
They are not, that’s the point. Having an easy to produce high value export like oil tends result in large exports of that item. This in turn drives up currency values.
Maduro has certainly solved that problem.

Aren't you tired of the would-be economists that are here constantly making up excuses for a bunch of militarist dictators?

They are not moved by the fact that Venezuela adopted a draconian foreign exchange control to keep their currency overvalued while they borrowed billions of real dollars to spend.

Chilean socialists didn't interfere with the markets and they knew that foreign loans were not to be wasted in populism. That's why Chile can get all the money she needs any minute and her treasury bonds only pay 1.37% above those from the US government (and that is because the markets today distrust emerging economies).
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Old 23rd August 2018, 11:32 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Could this end with China "owning" the most oil-rich country on earth in America's backyard?

Besides inexact, what a despicable thing to say!!!
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Old 23rd August 2018, 11:35 AM   #255
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If Chile is an emerging economy, does that make Venezuela a withdrawing economy?
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Old 23rd August 2018, 11:46 AM   #256
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A submerging one...

Chile belongs to the OECD and a dozen free trade associations. Venezuela was expelled from the Mercosur and the Andean Community. They keep good relations with Nicaragua and Cuba -if they continue to send cheap oil-.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 12:53 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
You obviously know nothing about Chile. Her copper exports totalled 34 billion usdollars in 2017, around 50% of her total exports of 68.3 billions,
Copper is much more economically and capital intensive to produce so there are much greater spin-off benefits for the rest of the economy. Oil production doesn’t create nearly as many jobs. Mining directly employs a quarter of a million people in Chili and the spin off from that employs many more. Would happen to the Chilean economy if half of those were replaced by an oil industry that employed 25 000?


Dutch disease can be a serious economic problem even for countries much more developed and well run than Venezuela. Don’t dismiss the potential for economic havoc it can cause.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 12:56 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
Aren't you tired of the would-be economists that are here constantly making up excuses for a bunch of militarist dictators?
I’m not making excuses for anything, there are plenty of real ones to be made. I’m just not on board with you inventing false ones.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 01:28 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
A submerging one...
Thank you! I knew there was a better term (funnier, more apt) than "withdrawing".
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Old 23rd August 2018, 02:27 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by lomiller
Copper is much more economically and capital intensive to produce so there are much greater spin-off benefits for the rest of the economy. Oil production doesn’t create nearly as many jobs. Mining directly employs a quarter of a million people in Chili and the spin off from that employs many more. Would happen to the Chilean economy if half of those were replaced by an oil industry that employed 25 000?
What's "Chili"? A small pepper?

In a country of somewhat similar name

Quote:
(El Mercurio) El número de trabajadores en el sector minero casi se duplicó entre 2006 y 2015, pasando de 132.807 a 238.454 empleados. Sin embargo, no ocurrió lo mismo con la producción de cobre, que creció solo marginalmente desde las 5.360.800 toneladas a 5.764.000 toneladas en esos diez años.
So your argument only works once the Dutch disease has healed, because the main cause of the increase is lower productivity both of workers and mineral. El superciclo del cobre en Chile (the supercycle of copper) ended by 2000, good prices, in 2012.

Meanwhile PDVSA had 80,000 employees just in 2011, and it's not the only company in the oil sector, though it's the main one, so your numbers are strongly skewed towards your argument.

Besides, the working force in Chile was 8.39 million people in March 2018, plus 654,000 unemployed and 5.32 million inactive adults. So copper uses 3% of the working force, while oil uses, what? some 1.5% of 13 million people in Venezuela?. Big deal.

By the way, skilled workers from the oil industry are today much wanted by the oil industry in Argentina. 7,000 engineers are already living in Argentina, as Venezuela dissolves while today dozens were incarcerated for criminal acts like selling goods with a profit margin.

Originally Posted by lomiller
Dutch disease can be a serious economic problem even for countries much more developed and well run than Venezuela. Don’t dismiss the potential for economic havoc it can cause.
I never dismissed it in any way ... when it really happens. What has that to do with Chávez' Venezuela? That's the mystery. When a government finances either by asking money from international investors or by selling public estate I have to ask what Dutch disease, or is it also Dutch disease what brings the dollar index spot go up and down?
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Old 23rd August 2018, 02:34 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by lomiller
I’m not making excuses for anything, there are plenty of real ones to be made. I’m just not on board with you inventing false ones.

How easily people drop their masks. It always impresses me how people can be enamoured of some ideologies that they blindly buy anything that has their label in it. I'm so disappointed in you.
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Old 23rd August 2018, 03:11 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
Besides inexact, what a despicable thing to say!!!


Why? Its a question.

And China is trying the 'loans and infrastructure' strategy from the Philippines to Serbia.

Venezuela's extreme economic situation can give China way more leverage than it had on those countries where it just builds bridges and roads.

I meant "owning" as in ' being in debt to'.


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Old 23rd August 2018, 03:30 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Why? Its a question.

How you dare to call a sovereign nation "America's backyard"!!!???
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Old 23rd August 2018, 03:51 PM   #264
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This way Venezuela dissolves:

News from El Nacional, the last independent newspaper, constantly fined by the dictatorship for "telling lies" (Trump dreams to be able to do this)

Mothers of young patients with leukaemia and kidney failure reported that their children only got boiled rice for lunch at the children's hospital JM de los Ríos.

Venezuelans try to survive with nine extra dollars.

From the article

Quote:
Devaluation from 2.60 to 60.

Salaries and retirements rising from 52 to 1800 yet to be cashed

25 staples (rice, corn, sugar, oil, etc) officially raising up to 40,000%. And they already went up.*

In some days the cost of gasoline will be multiply by 700.

Many arrests (merchants, managers of supermarkets, owners of chemist's, etc) for raising prices "indiscriminately".
* The government started already to pay the 1800 of September to retirees otherwise the should have to live with the remainder of the 52 of August.
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Old 24th August 2018, 02:53 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
How you dare to call a sovereign nation "America's backyard"!!!???
It's an echo of their (former?) view of South America. The US seems to have backed off from those attitudes. A strategic competitor becoming very influential in South America could be too close for comfort.

Just like Russia freaks out about Western influence seeping into their former empire/Soviet states.

It wasn't meant as an expression of my own attitudes towards South American countries.
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Old 24th August 2018, 05:01 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
It's an echo of their (former?) view of South America. The US seems to have backed off from those attitudes. A strategic competitor becoming very influential in South America could be too close for comfort.

Just like Russia freaks out about Western influence seeping into their former empire/Soviet states.

It wasn't meant as an expression of my own attitudes towards South American countries.
That's a good thing!
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Old 25th August 2018, 09:43 AM   #267
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Ecuador described Maduro's government as "irresponsible" and "inhumane"
The [leftist] government of Ecuador withdrew the country from the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America (ALBA) in response to the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela

The ALBA is still formed by 10 nations: Venezuela, Bolivia and other eight nations who depend on cheap Venezuelan oil (mainly Cuba and Nicaragua).
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Old 25th August 2018, 09:59 AM   #268
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This thread has been going on since the beginning of June and now, it's almost September. Venezuela is on an awfully wide edge.
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Old 25th August 2018, 10:02 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
This thread has been going on since the beginning of June and now, it's almost September. Venezuela is on an awfully wide edge.
Yes, the life of countries usually have such timings. It will end in a couple of years, after 100,000 to one million deaths.
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Old 25th August 2018, 10:11 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
This thread has been going on since the beginning of June and now, it's almost September. Venezuela is on an awfully wide edge.
There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.
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Old 26th August 2018, 07:46 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
They keep good relations with Nicaragua and Cuba -if they continue to send cheap oil-.

Critics of Chavez/Maduro always mention the "cheap oil" that Venezuelans "send" to Cuba. I'm not really sure if the oil is as cheap as they claim, but if you're trying to persuade Venezuelans that the Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA) is a one-sided affair that benefits Cuba at the expense of Venezuela, you should at least try to calculate the going rate.
I don't have it, but I've tried to form at least an impression of it based on these figures from 2012:

Quote:
Venezuela sends Cuba about 90,000 barrels of oil per day, in exchange for the services of as many as 30,000 doctors. Supporters of the programme believe both countries benefit from what economists call “comparative advantage”. Cuba is known among developing countries for its healthcare system and Venezuela exports plenty of oil.
Cuban doctors prescribe hope in Venezuela (Al Jazeera, Dec. 31, 2012)

So that would be three barrels of oil for a doctor (in today’s prices approximately 150 US$ if I understand it correctly) – not to forget Cuban nurses, teachers and others.
To me it doesn’t sound expensive. How many barrels does a US doctor go for these days?!

(I know that you would have to look at the current doctor-for-oil exchange rate, but I’m just trying to find out if it seems to be as steep as critics of Chavez/Maduro claim. That doesn’t seem to be the case, but maybe one of our economists has a better estimate. It wouldn't surprise at all me if Cuba turned out to be the disadvantaged country in the current situation.)
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Old 26th August 2018, 08:28 AM   #272
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That's not what I pay my taxes for!

Wrong thread, sorry!
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 26th August 2018 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 26th August 2018, 10:30 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by dann
So that would be three barrels of oil for a doctor (in today’s prices approximately 150 US$ if I understand it correctly) – not to forget Cuban nurses, teachers and others.
To me it doesn’t sound expensive. How many barrels does a US doctor go for these days?!
You take Cubans and Venezuelans, and the 150 u$s a day you get as a result is not much money from a Danish or Canadian point of view.

Why didn't you compare it with the typical salary of a Venezuelan doctor in a public hospital at that time and get the price of an oil barrel? After all both the doctor and the oil are Venezuelan. Feel free to use the best of many exchange rates at the time. I suggest the rate that allowed then them to have the cheapest gasoline in the world. Maybe you get lucky and are able to claim that Cuba paid her oil above international prices.

But I still love the way you embraced the Capitalist concept of comparative advantages (the background of the "Dutch disease" passed as something to do with Venezuela's debacle)
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Old 26th August 2018, 11:12 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
So that would be three barrels of oil for a doctor (in today’s prices approximately 150 US$ if I understand it correctly) – not to forget Cuban nurses, teachers and others.
To me it doesn’t sound expensive. How many barrels does a US doctor go for these days?!
As with basically everything else Chavez touched, this program was rife with fraud and waste.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nat...129125864.html

There's no reason to believe Venezuela is actually getting its money's worth. Especially now, when they can't even keep their hospitals stocked with basic medical supplies (or even running water in some cases), the number of doctors available isn't the limiting factor in providing care for patients.
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Old 26th August 2018, 01:48 PM   #275
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Petrocaribe


«The payment system allows for purchase of oil at market value for 5%-50% up front with a grace period of one to two years; the remainder can be paid through a 17-25 year financing agreement with 1% interest if oil prices are above US$40 per barrel.»


I've read that from u$s 28 billions in oil exports last year, Venezuela got 11 billions in hand. The rest was just repayment of loans from China, Russia and other loans paid with oil. That doesn't mean that Venezuela didn't get new loans and got paid according to Petrocaribe rules, but that surely didn't amount to 28 billions.


And today it's all dropping 2-3% each month. And the main export today is lesser quality heavy oil from the Orinoco Basin which needs to mix with naphta imported from the USA to be pumped.
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Old 11th September 2018, 12:45 PM   #276
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Oil production falling to 1.22 mbpd last month from 1.28 last July (from 3.78 mpbd in 1970)

As Venezuela is nowadays producing mostly heavy oil, she depends on catalytic cracking to compensate the insufficient valuable light fractions. Well, on September 1st the refinery Amuay stopped its activities because of a shortage of one component, and a few days ago the refinery Cardón of the same complex (Centro Refinador Paraguaná) ceased production because of technical problems. That is about half the capacity of the country.

I thank in advance those ideological optimists from refraining in commenting about the wonderful 400 million dollars investments from seven companies to revive Venezuela's light oil production. A 10 billion package was announced less than three years ago and it failed. Another package of more than 2 billions was announced last year and it failed too (the government never paid in full what the investors were owed). This new plan has very strict conditions in a way that if the investor don't get the money first the won't move a finger, and as Venezuela doesn't have a dime, we all know where all of this is going to end.
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Old 11th September 2018, 12:57 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by dann

Quote:
Venezuela sends Cuba about 90,000 barrels of oil per day, in exchange for the services of as many as 30,000 doctors. Supporters of the programme believe both countries benefit from what economists call “comparative advantage”. Cuba is known among developing countries for its healthcare system and Venezuela exports plenty of oil.
Cuban doctors prescribe hope in Venezuela (Al Jazeera, Dec. 31, 2012)

So that would be three barrels of oil for a doctor (in today’s prices approximately 150 US$ if I understand it correctly) – not to forget Cuban nurses, teachers and others.
To me it doesn’t sound expensive. How many barrels does a US doctor go for these days?!

In Cuba one each 94 adults is a doctor in medicine. Maybe the solution for Cuba's problem is having one each nine adults becoming a doctor. We know they don't have maids, so the people who would have become the help have to work somewhere, haven't they?


That way, with way above half million physicians abroad, at 150 u$s a day of your equation, Cuba would be able to get like 100 millions a day and 36 billions a year, what may dramatically rise their overall standard of life.
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Old 12th September 2018, 02:13 AM   #278
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America interfered in Venezuela elections. It's obviously unfair. Give peace a chance.
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Old 12th September 2018, 02:58 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
America interfered in Venezuela elections. It's obviously unfair. Give peace a chance.

You'll have to define what "America" is...
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Old 12th September 2018, 04:45 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
America interfered in Venezuela elections. It's obviously unfair. Give peace a chance.
Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
You'll have to define what "America" is...
Watch out, Henri. aleCcowaN gets very offended when people use "America" to refer to the United States of America.
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