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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old Today, 04:01 AM   #721
eeyore1954
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Death Rates by Country per Million
Italy 172.28
Spain 145.5
Netherlands 45.05
France 40.00
Belgium 37.19
Switzerland 34.66
United Kingdom 18.13
Denmark 12.43
Portugal 11.67
Sweden 10.89
Austria 9.55
United States 7.59
Germany 6.46
Norway 4.80
Greece 3.74
South Korea 3.08
Canada 1.73
Australia .69
Japan .43
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Old Today, 04:05 AM   #722
eeyore1954
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Code:
Country     Total       Total     Total      New        Total            Active    Serious  Tot Cases/  Deaths/
                 Cases      New     Deaths  Deaths    Recovered    Cases     Critical   Million        Million

Australia    4,163      +528       17        +3       244               3,902           28         163     0.7  Jan 24
Sweden     3,700      +253      110       +5         16               3,574          255         366    11  Jan 30
What are those figures telling us? Sweden is doing little do manage Covid-19 but Australia is.

Could it also be a Northern Hemisphere versus a Southern Hemisphere?
Also considering schools are still open? in Sweden surprisingly the number isn't higher in there.
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Old Today, 04:08 AM   #723
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I think masks should be brightly color coded, eg purple for medical personnel, to avoid black market hoarding,
That only works until the stock of the colour you need runs out and you have to start using a different one.
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Old Today, 04:11 AM   #724
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
One thing that I’m curious about is the certainty surrounding the 14 day quarantine rule. As I said upthread, my son is a victim, and I assumed he would be tested again before he is allowed out of his hotel room. But no, 14 days, and back to our house.

I’ve been told that the priority is testing those who may be infected rather than retesting previously infected people.

So there must be a great deal of confidence that 14 days is more than a sufficient quarantine period.
There really isn't that much confidence about it.

Officially there are still around 100 people who were on the Diamond Princess who are active coronavirus cases, with 15 still in serious or critical condition.

That was weeks ago.
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Old Today, 04:58 AM   #725
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Atheist, you have championed the hand-to-mouth transmission as being the primary form of infection. I don't remember if this is because we see intestinal disorders as one of the initial symptoms, or for some other reason.

I propose that inhaling coronavirus in aerosol via the nose is nearly the equivalent of hand-to-mouth. This is because our sinuses drain into our throat and then that is spontaneously swallowed. It's nose-to-stomach instead of hand-to-stomach but with the same result. I'm speculating but I think it has a sound basis.

If this is true then a proper mask is necessary to prevent becoming infected or transmitting infection via aerosol. I'm not talking about droplets produced by coughing or sneezing. I'm talking about aerosols produced by normal exhalation and speaking and singing. We have cases of transmission caused by being in the vicinity of singers who are not coughing or sneezing. MIT informed us that 6 feet away is not nearly far enough.

But I'm not done with my proposals...
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Old Today, 05:29 AM   #726
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The eyeballs. When coronavirus is riding in an aerosol form it is going to adhere to your eyeballs. This is the same situation that causes smoke or pollen to irritate your eyes. Your tears ducts drain into your sinuses and so we then have eye-to-stomach transmission. But the eyes themselves can become infected.

Last week I read a story about a nursing home (Washington?) where the staff noticed a symptom in residents which they called "red eye". Without any testing, the staff was able to identify residents with Covid-19 simply because they had red eyes. If they saw red eyes they knew that the resident was infected.

A proper mask won't prevent eye infection via aerosol because the eyeballs are still exposed. Eyeglasses won't stop this either because the aerosol will just flow behind the lenses. What is necessary are specialized protective eye gear that seals against the face with something like foam. I'm also thinking about swim goggles.
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Old Today, 05:52 AM   #727
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This medical research paper may have been posted before - I don't know.

We are dealing with a novel coronavirus that is viable in aerosol for up to 3 hours...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
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Old Today, 06:41 AM   #728
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Australia has taken measures to reduce the infection rate. I would agree we should be seeing a reduction about now because of that. If we do not then the measures are not working.
That is a little too simplistic. I have been looking at some of the maths (well ... YouTubes) behind this.

The isolation measures being undertaken in countries like Australia won't necessarily reduce the total number of people who are ultimately exposed to the virus. What they will do is ensure that the peak infection rate never gets so high that it overwhelms the medical system. The down side is that the peak infection rate occurs later it will take longer before the virus has swept its course.

The Spanish flu of 1918 provides a case study. Philadelphia ignored the warnings and carried on business as usual. Within a few weeks, cases soared and so did the death rate as its hospitals were pushed beyond their ability to cope. However, it was all over for Philadelphia within a few months.

OTOH St. Louis implemented all of the isolation procedures we are seeing today. It had the desired result. The peak infection rate never got so high that its hospitals couldn't cope. Its biggest peak was after the virus had run its course in Philadelphia (probably as its restrictions were relaxed).

This YouTube explains the "flattening the curve" objective. (See from 6:45 for the Philadelphia/St. Louis experience).
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old Today, 07:02 AM   #729
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
This medical research paper may have been posted before - I don't know.

We are dealing with a novel coronavirus that is viable in aerosol for up to 3 hours...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
Yeah, I have seen that paper, and I must admit that I am not competent enough to review it or really understand the methodolgy.

But my take is that "viable in aerosol form for up to 3 hours" is different in meaning to "its main method of transmission is through aerosols".

Presumably the study involved artificially aerosolizing the virus. We know that it can be aerosolized, so how long it can remain viable in that form is not really relevant, is it?

What we want to know is how commonly it aerosolizes and whether it does so outside of medical procedures (and some other not particularly common situations).

In other words, we want to know if people spread it simply by breathing.
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Old Today, 07:29 AM   #730
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Gut feel? Because we have been doing all that the experts have asked and I would have expected a reduction sooner or later.
I think you reacted too late and it's already all over the country. I might be wrong. Time will tell.

You had 10 cases beginning of Feb and community transmission by start of March.
You only started doing something mid March, cancelling meetings of more than 500 and asking travelers to self-isolate.


How aggressive have you been with tracing and quarantining people since the first case? How good are the population in following the distancing measures?
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Old Today, 07:44 AM   #731
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All these quarantine, and other prophylactic measures like masks are only meant to lower the peak and stretch out the curve, thereby lessening the load on medical resources. Which will only lower the deaths by how many people are saved by the medical care. Because meantime we are only biding our time until we have all been exposed.

So, how many patients have recovered after being on a respirator?

How does that compare to archival pneumonia patients?
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Old Today, 08:10 AM   #732
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
All these quarantine, and other prophylactic measures like masks are only meant to lower the peak and stretch out the curve, thereby lessening the load on medical resources. Which will only lower the deaths by how many people are saved by the medical care.
Not just those people; there are also the people suffering from completely unrelated life-threatening conditions who might have been saved by medical intervention but were not because the healthcare system was overloaded to the point of collapse.

Dave
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Old Today, 09:16 AM   #733
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Not just those people; there are also the people suffering from completely unrelated life-threatening conditions who might have been saved by medical intervention but were not because the healthcare system was overloaded to the point of collapse.

Dave
And more: the people with “underlying medical conditions” who are likely to get infected and die, and who made a decision to not seek care (postpone dialysis or chemo, put up with worsening diabetes or COPD, etc), but who died. Most of these would be “avoidable deaths”.

And it’s not just death ... many of those who suffer severe covid-19 and survive do not recover the pre-infection health.

And so on ...
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Old Today, 09:28 AM   #734
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Code:
Country     Total       Total     Total      New        Total            Active    Serious  Tot Cases/  Deaths/
                 Cases      New     Deaths  Deaths    Recovered    Cases     Critical   Million        Million

Australia    4,163      +528       17        +3       244               3,902           28         163     0.7  Jan 24
Sweden     3,700      +253      110       +5         16               3,574          255         366    11  Jan 30
What are those figures telling us? Sweden is doing little do manage Covid-19 but Australia is.
Or Sweden is actually testing more people than Australia is.
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Old Today, 09:37 AM   #735
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That is a little too simplistic. I have been looking at some of the maths (well ... YouTubes) behind this.

The isolation measures being undertaken in countries like Australia won't necessarily reduce the total number of people who are ultimately exposed to the virus. What they will do is ensure that the peak infection rate never gets so high that it overwhelms the medical system. The down side is that the peak infection rate occurs later it will take longer before the virus has swept its course.

The Spanish flu of 1918 provides a case study. Philadelphia ignored the warnings and carried on business as usual. Within a few weeks, cases soared and so did the death rate as its hospitals were pushed beyond their ability to cope. However, it was all over for Philadelphia within a few months.

OTOH St. Louis implemented all of the isolation procedures we are seeing today. It had the desired result. The peak infection rate never got so high that its hospitals couldn't cope. Its biggest peak was after the virus had run its course in Philadelphia (probably as its restrictions were relaxed).

This YouTube explains the "flattening the curve" objective. (See from 6:45 for the Philadelphia/St. Louis experience).
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
Medical care wasn't the best back then but think about it. So it goes through faster, the death count will not just be high from flu, but the overwhelmed hospitals meant people also died of other things because the hospitals were over capacity. In addition, in overcrowded hospitals, patients and staff without flu are almost universally exposed.

Getting over it sooner comes with a great cost.

Today where medical care does do a lot of good, the effect would be even greater.
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Old Today, 09:43 AM   #736
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, I have seen that paper, and I must admit that I am not competent enough to review it or really understand the methodolgy.

But my take is that "viable in aerosol form for up to 3 hours" is different in meaning to "its main method of transmission is through aerosols".

Presumably the study involved artificially aerosolizing the virus. We know that it can be aerosolized, so how long it can remain viable in that form is not really relevant, is it?

What we want to know is how commonly it aerosolizes and whether it does so outside of medical procedures (and some other not particularly common situations).

In other words, we want to know if people spread it simply by breathing.
Maybe you, maybe not but it seems to me an awful lot of people are bent on claiming aerosols are not an issue.

We don't know. Just yesterday some 'expert' doctor being interviewed on the news again dismissed airborne spread.

(Not you) Prove it isn't or stop telling people you know. It's so not evidence based medicine.
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Old Today, 09:48 AM   #737
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Or Sweden is actually testing more people than Australia is.

This is all I could find about the current strategy in Sweden:
Quote:
Sweden has changed the approach it's taking to coronavirus tests, meaning the majority of people with symptoms will no longer be tested.
Fact check: Has Sweden stopped testing people for the coronavirus? (TheLocal.se, March 20, 2020)
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Old Today, 10:06 AM   #738
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
And there are signs China severely underreported deaths from COVID-19.
I'm shocked.

Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
One company with three factories in Malaysia makes one fifth of the world's condoms, and they are closed due to coronavirus and aren't making any.

“We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” [their chief executive] said. “My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programmes … in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...own-production
We're definitely going to take that virus in the ass.

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I'm wondering if the projections/predictions are taking into account possible (I said possible for all the goddamn pedantic twits) upticks in other diseases.

Okay so you're a hospital. You have X number of ventilators, let's say to use a common example. If the current trends continue you will have more Covid patients that need ventilators then you have ventilators in Y number of days.

But something as big and far reaching is as this mass quarantine is bound to have secondary and unforeseen consequences. Through some means we have a spike in some totally unrelated health issue Z because of the outbreak or response to the outbreak.

People are staying home, people are avoiding doctors offices, people are making medication they have last longer, medical supplies are running low... it's not crazy to thing this could all cause a secondary medical issue of some kind.

And then the Covid Patients plus the new "Auxiliary Issue Patients" overwhelm your number of ventilators weeks before even the optimistic predictions.
That's what happens when decisions are made based on panic.
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Old Today, 10:12 AM   #739
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Medical care wasn't the best back then but think about it. So it goes through faster, the death count will not just be high from flu, but the overwhelmed hospitals meant people also died of other things because the hospitals were over capacity. In addition, in overcrowded hospitals, patients and staff without flu are almost universally exposed.

Getting over it sooner comes with a great cost.

Today where medical care does do a lot of good, the effect would be even greater.
This is all true.

I mainly put up this info because a TV news report shown locally suggested that with isolation measures, the peak infection rate would be lower, come earlier and the whole thing would be over sooner. As the maths and history shows, this is not the case.

As for the higher death rate that comes from not taking action, I doubt that could even be justified on economic grounds.
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Old Today, 10:13 AM   #740
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Originally Posted by AnonyMoose View Post
A little bit of happy news on the Canadian front:

The Bank of China sent a big shipment of PPE supplies to Canada as a "Thank You" to Canada for sending aid to China back in early February when they were in the midst of their outbreak.






Edit to add: Trudeau got a lot of flack for sending China those supplies, so it seems those same people now have egg on their face. I'm glad to see China returned the favour now that we're about to hit the ugly part of this outbreak.
Wow, who'd have thunk it? Being nice to people bears fruit!

Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Coronavirus social distancing limit is at least four times too short because infectious droplets can fly much further than current 6 foot (2 metre) restriction, study warns


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...irus-risk.html
That's why you stay home if you have symptoms.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Fucie projecting 100 Thousand deaths in the US is a best case scenario.
My god. That is more then US Casualaties in every war since World War 2 combined.
It's going to be much higher than that.
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Old Today, 10:24 AM   #741
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yay, we have influential people here saying that New York is fine and many showing pictures of empty hospitals.
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Old Today, 10:28 AM   #742
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Thanks to all those who made suggestions. In terms of a rapid and easy to introduce fix we have gone for the low tech; mass order of white boards and marker pens. I knew we'd find some use for all that alcohol gel...
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Old Today, 10:29 AM   #743
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
We are dealing with a novel coronavirus that is viable in aerosol for up to 3 hours...
Sure, and I agree with your point on eye protection - my mind was just boggling at a pic of one of NZ's testing facilities and seeing half the medical staff not wearing eye protection.

My point is simply that it appears that hands seem to be the major method of transmission. I'm not denying any of the other means. People need to be treating everything they buy from the supermarket as though it's infected. Nothing to do with the GI infections, although the foecal-oral route is a sure means of easy infection.

This is the problem: Someone coughs on the packet of bread, you bring it home, wash your hands and then open it up to make a sandwich, transferring viral particles from the packet to the bread in the meantime.

Eat well!

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
So, how many patients have recovered after being on a respirator?
I don't know whether that's a stat that's easily available, but I have seen a few anecdotal accounts from people claiming to be at the epicentre who say that if you're over 70 and go on a respirator, you're almost certain to exit it horizontally.
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Old Today, 10:43 AM   #744
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Guardian is saying like 50% if you go on a ventilator
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Old Today, 10:56 AM   #745
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
This is the problem: Someone coughs on the packet of bread, you bring it home, wash your hands and then open it up to make a sandwich, transferring viral particles from the packet to the bread in the meantime.

Eat well!
I read that you are not in danger by eating the virus. The important thing is to keep it from the windpipe and the lungs. Apparently, the digestive enzymes enzymes doing a decent job of destroying the virus.
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Old Today, 11:02 AM   #746
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For America, hurricane season starts in 2 months. That is going to sting during a lethal virus pandemic. Conflicting orders.

1. Stay inside your home.
2. Evacuate.

Old people and the high-risk people will have a choice. Become infected during the evacuation or stay and endure the hurricane.
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Old Today, 11:07 AM   #747
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Guardian is saying like 50% if you go on a ventilator
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-survival-rate

It was based on a sample of only 165 people, so..
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Old Today, 11:32 AM   #748
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It's mostly a rumor now .. but !

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/71529...ish/index.html
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Old Today, 11:35 AM   #749
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
It's mostly a rumor now .. but !
Unable to pay the cellular bill.
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.
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