ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Russia-Ukraine relations , Ukraine incidents , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin

Reply
Old 17th February 2015, 10:15 PM   #1
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Mod InfoThe previous thread (found HERE) was getting long and unwieldy, so I have opened this continuation thread. As always, the split point is arbitrary and you are free to quote from the previous thread into this one.
Posted By:Agatha


Quote:
The word Fascist and Right-wing is being thrown around a lot these days.
Not just these days, I've had to put up with it all my life and it's damned irritating for those of us who've taken the trouble to find out what "fascist" signifies, with all its complexity.

Quote:
Fascists in Russia, on the other hand, already hold three times bigger and ten times richer state,
No, they don't. Putin's regime and system is not Fascist. Putin's system is authoritarian, while fascism is totalitarian - it intrudes into every facet of life. Authoritarians intrude as much as they think necessary and no more. It's a crucial distinction.

Putin's war on gays is his own personal issue which he's being allowed to indulge but it's in no way fundamental to the system.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

Last edited by Agatha; 18th February 2015 at 10:03 AM.
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th February 2015, 10:16 PM   #2
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Ukrainian narrative is fast unfolding.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 01:11 AM   #3
Aber
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,042
The fighting also helps the Ukrainian narrative on the international stage - it reinforces the idea that Putin was not negotiating in good faith. As a result the EU imposed extra sanctions on Monday; if the ceasefire had held completely, then I don't think this would have happened.
Aber is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 02:19 AM   #4
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
National identities are usually created in opposition to some other national identity. This war could be the making of Ukraine - and I'm not the only person to be thinking that. I'm just the one with the least influence on events.
Many national identities trace their origins to a war. For Germany it was the triumph in Franco-Prussian war, for Spain and Portugal it was reconquista. For Netherlands the Dutch revolt in 16th century was crucial, US had Revolutionary war and so on. It could very well be this war will be what Ukraine needed to turn from a state with a Ukrainian majority to a Ukrainian nation-state.

The process can still be derailed by a half-hearted peace deal, followed by a massive worsening of corruption in Ukraine, making people almost ashamed of being ukrainians once again. But barring that, I don't see any option of this not happening, regardless of the result - up to and especially in the case of Russia occupying and annexing all of Ukraine.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 02:27 AM   #5
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
No, they don't. Putin's regime and system is not Fascist. Putin's system is authoritarian, while fascism is totalitarian - it intrudes into every facet of life. Authoritarians intrude as much as they think necessary and no more. It's a crucial distinction.

Putin's war on gays is his own personal issue which he's being allowed to indulge but it's in no way fundamental to the system.
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2014...-putin-fascist
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-967283.html
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...y-classic.html

Identify this bird: it walks, swims, dives, quacks, looks exactly like and has a DNA of a duck. Do you think it is a duck?

War on gays is just one tiny aspect of the whole thing, a part which I don't even find particularily important. The economic system, where big companies run in bed with the government is quite vital and it follows fascist patterns closely. Political system is no different from classical fascism in any way. He identifies with glorious past, engages in virulent nationalism, creates youth groups to bully and intimidiate the opposition ... . He is confident his nation and values are superior to all others, and must fight moral decay of West. He seeks to unite all Russians in Russia by retaking historical wrongs. What is this, if not fascist?

Furthermore, whereas I agree with your distinction of authoritarianism from totalitarianism, I think that both assertions you make are wrong. Fascism is not necessarily totalitarian, nor is Putler's Russia just authoritarian - it has significant totalitarian tendencies.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...a-already.html

I wouldn't call it totalitarian (yet), but he certainly is going from "intrude no more than I have to" point towards something worse.

Do you have any important aspects of fascism not present in Russia? I can't think of any.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 08:55 AM   #6
crescent
Graduate Poster
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,820
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Quote:
Poroshenko and the Ukrainian government have also failed on a second, even larger lie. They emphatically denied the existence of the Debaltsevo (Debaltseve) cauldron. This was after the armed forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics announced that up to 9000 Ukrainian forces had been surrounded and cut off from resupply.
And yet, despite being cut off, they have managed to withdraw 80% of their forces and equipment in one day.

It could be that Ukraine now has magic Star-Trek transporter technology and have used it to implement the withdrawl. Or, it could be that the "Cauldron" was not a cauldron but a salient, albeit one that was in danger of being cut off and for which access was frequently difficult.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 09:02 AM   #7
carlitos
"más divertido"
 
carlitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 17,714
Yeah, but that's reality. What fun is reporting on reality, when you can report Putin's talking points?
carlitos is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 09:23 AM   #8
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 15,951
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Quote:
The desperation of Poroshenko to secure money and weaponry for a catastrophically bankrupt and corrupt Ukraine has been emphasized by his increased theatrics. His quick to be disproved unveiling of fake Russian passports at the Munich Security Council is a key indicator of a shift in public discourse. Instead of again immediately blaming Russia, people pointed out that Russian soldiers do not have passports, but military IDs. Poroshenko was caught red-handed in a blatant lie on the world stage.
That shows nothing. If acknowledged Russian servicemen have been in Crimea without unit markings or anything (except their equipment) identifying them as Russian, one can't say that any Russian servicemen in Ukraine would have military IDs.

Alternatively some people fighting on the separatist side might be Russian nationals. They might be there on their own initiative, or sponsored by the Russian state - like Igor Strelkov, "the coordinator of those "Donetsk people's republic forces"" who admitted that he was sponsored by Russia

Meanwhile here is a Guardian article about Bellingcat (Brown Moses) using open information to give even stronger evidence of Russian state involvement.

Quote:

The Bellingcat team analysed crater patterns from satellite photos of three battlefields where the Ukrainian army came under particularly savage attack last summer and traced the estimated trajectories back to likely firing positions, where it identified scorch marks and tyre tracks on satellite images consistent with Russian rocket-launchers.

With a single exception, the identified firing positions were on Russian soil. Furthermore, the tracks to and from the firing positions led further inside Russia, further evidence that they were Russian units, not separatist fighters who had strayed across the border. Images of the same terrain just before the attacks show no track marks or scorched earth.

An independent military forensics expert warned that the accuracy of crater analysis in determining direction of fire on the basis of satellite photography was scientifically unproven, but said that the images of firing positions on the Russian side of the border were compelling and raised questions of what they were doing there.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:09 AM   #9
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
And yet, despite being cut off, they have managed to withdraw 80% of their forces and equipment in one day.

It could be that Ukraine now has magic Star-Trek transporter technology and have used it to implement the withdrawl. Or, it could be that the "Cauldron" was not a cauldron but a salient, albeit one that was in danger of being cut off and for which access was frequently difficult.

Porky went from "there is no cauldron" since Friday to "nobody surrenders" yesterday to "we are withdrawing as planned" today. He simply makes it up as he goes along and that is finally noticed in "loyalist" circles. If you believe that 80% "withdrew" today with their equipment, I can't help but tell you to stop drinking the kool-aid.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:11 AM   #10
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 15,951
And the more in-depth Bellingcat article about this with more discussion and examples
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:18 AM   #11
crescent
Graduate Poster
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,820
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Porky went from "there is no cauldron" since Friday to "nobody surrenders" yesterday to "we are withdrawing as planned" today.
Here's the thing: There was no cauldron, as evidenced by the fact that the Ukrainian troops did not surrender (not the great majority, at least) because they were able to withdraw. "Porky's" statements do not actually contradict each other.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:21 AM   #12
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Here's the thing: There was no cauldron, as evidenced by the fact that the Ukrainian troops did not surrender (not the great majority, at least) because they were able to withdraw. "Porky's" statements do not actually contradict each other.

How do you know that they were able to withdraw?
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:37 AM   #13
crescent
Graduate Poster
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,820
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
How do you know that they were able to withdraw?
Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 10:41 AM   #14
HoverBoarder
Graduate Poster
 
HoverBoarder's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,403
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.
Putin asked the rebels to let them withdraw.
HoverBoarder is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:01 AM   #15
crescent
Graduate Poster
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,820
Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
Putin asked the rebels to let them withdraw.
Do you have a source for that? I mean, it is possible - but everything I have read said that Putin stated over and over again that the government forces were surrounded, unable to withdraw and should abandon their weapons and surrender to the separatists. That was his key bargaining point in Minsk - that the Ukrainian troops were trapped, doomed to death or defeat and that he was only trying to save them by getting them to surrender. He called upon the separatists to provide surrendering Ukrainian troops with food and clothing, and suggested that these troops could then be returned to Ukraine.

That didn't happen. This is not a victory for Ukraine by any means, but is might not be a disaster either. If they really did manage to get the bulk of their troops and equipment out, then they have prevented the Russians and separatists from achieving the full scope of victory that Russia had been looking for. The Ukrainian command might have also demonstrated to their own troops that they will make appropriate decisions and not throw away lives in endless encirclements.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:09 AM   #16
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

In Artemisk? The "correspondents" likely have no means of knowing if that equipment came from the cauldron or was already there (support station). They just parrot what they're told. And what you say about the separatists claims comes obviously from dubious second hand information as well. They say there are still about 2-3K inside the cauldron, some tried to break out, days ago, which they payed with their lives (I posted a video of Logvinovo towards the end of the last thread that shows the remains), and hundreds have surrendered and were sent home. Without equipment. There's video of that as well.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:11 AM   #17
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Meanwhile here is a Guardian article about Bellingcat (Brown Moses) using open information to give even stronger evidence of Russian state involvement.

Yeah, I read about that on twitter.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:13 AM   #18
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Do you have a source for that?

Putin asked Kiev to order a surrender and the rebels to let them go home.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:57 AM   #19
HoverBoarder
Graduate Poster
 
HoverBoarder's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,403
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Do you have a source for that? I mean, it is possible - but everything I have read said that Putin stated over and over again that the government forces were surrounded, unable to withdraw and should abandon their weapons and surrender to the separatists. That was his key bargaining point in Minsk - that the Ukrainian troops were trapped, doomed to death or defeat and that he was only trying to save them by getting them to surrender. He called upon the separatists to provide surrendering Ukrainian troops with food and clothing, and suggested that these troops could then be returned to Ukraine.

That didn't happen. This is not a victory for Ukraine by any means, but is might not be a disaster either. If they really did manage to get the bulk of their troops and equipment out, then they have prevented the Russians and separatists from achieving the full scope of victory that Russia had been looking for. The Ukrainian command might have also demonstrated to their own troops that they will make appropriate decisions and not throw away lives in endless encirclements.
Not sure if this was a mistranslation of his words, but at least according to this article and a VOA article,

Putin calls on Ukraine troops encircled at debaltseve to surrender

Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is calling on pro-Russian rebels to allow besieged Ukrainian troops safe passage out of the encircled town of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine.
HoverBoarder is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 12:40 PM   #20
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

Not unlikely "nearly every news source" will report soon that the evil Putin is attacking the next peaceful village, Olchowatka, omitting that it's in the same cauldron that has since its existence been larger than Debaltsevo, and where some of the Ukie troops "withdrew" now to, still being trapped, a bit more south. You might want to take a look at the maps to get an understanding. Scroll down for older versions going back to long before Minsk II, accuractely showing what was a "salient" at that time.

The maps from this side are always quite in touch with the news of the future, while those from the other side have been utterly ridiculous wishful thinking, as I've shown countless times already. I wonder why people always go back to point zero after that. Must be because "nearly every news source" does so as well.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 05:00 PM   #21
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 22,550
Just saw this story on Buzzfeed. Buzzfeed! The site for listicles of cute kitten pics.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/uk...iliating-defea
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 06:50 PM   #22
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Do you have any important aspects of fascism not present in Russia? I can't think of any.
I'm afraid by the definition of your linked sources Tudor England was a fascist society, at which point the term loses all utility.

Intrinsic to fascism is the hive-society in which there is no value in the individual except for an exceptional, semi-divine elite who embody the society. Thus we had the Catholic fascism of Spain and Croatia and the state fascism of Mussolini and Hitler; now we have the Islamic Fascism of ISIS and Iran, and Mao's China also qualified. Putin's Russia is a long way from it.

This may well be an over-academic treatment of the subject, but there it is. Use the term as you wish (lots of people do that); I've registered my irritation at the cost of some thread derailment. Here I am debating minutiae (again) while there's a war going on. Silly, really.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 06:56 PM   #23
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
In Artemisk? The "correspondents" likely have no means of knowing if that equipment came from the cauldron or was already there (support station).
The correspondents were alread there.

Ukrainian soldiers share horrors of Debaltseve battle after stinging defeat
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tinging-defeat

Quote:
"Those soldiers who had managed to get out of the ruins of the besieged town were immediately recognisable, their wide eyes staring out from a thick coating of grime as they waited for buses to take them back to Artemivsk."
Make-up, perhaps?

Quote:
There's video of that as well.
Who could doubt video evidence? Heck, it's almost as good as being there.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 07:07 PM   #24
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.
From the Guardian peice http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tinging-defeat

Quote:
'In the government-controlled village of Luhanske, which lies at the end of a deadly 10-mile stretch of highway out of Debaltseve, first lieutenant Yuriy Prekharia described how he led 50 men through the fields and forests to reach Ukrainian positions. “We knew that if we stayed there it would be definitely either be captivity or death,” he told the Guardian, as armoured vehicles passed by carrying hundreds of dirty soldiers. Heavy artillery boomed and rockets streaked through the sky as government forces tried to cover their comrades’ retreat.'
There's also mention of ambushes and shelling. Clearly there wasn't a continuous siege-line but neither was there a secure line of communication.

Ukrainian troops were occupying villages around Dbaltseve as well as the city itself and I imagine a lot of the withdrawn troops came from those. Once the fog of war clears a little we'll know more.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 07:32 PM   #25
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Many national identities trace their origins to a war. For Germany it was the triumph in Franco-Prussian war, for Spain and Portugal it was reconquista. For Netherlands the Dutch revolt in 16th century was crucial, US had Revolutionary war and so on. It could very well be this war will be what Ukraine needed to turn from a state with a Ukrainian majority to a Ukrainian nation-state.
That was indeed my point.

There's an influential school of nationalist thought which holds that a nation can only be forged in Blood and Iron (Bismarck's phrase, I think). A political process doesn't cut it, and compromise is treason. Almost all nationalist movements contain this element and they're quick to turn on leaders who negotiate - hence the murders of Michael Collins, Ghandi, King Abdullah of Jordan and Yitzhak Rabin (to name but a few).

The bellicose response of the new Ukrainian government to any talk of separitism, even before there was any violence, and the branding of separatists as terrorists makes me suspect that there were those in the government who wanted this conflict to forge their nation in. Separatism is not illegitimate; the means used to pursue it can be. The Ukrainian government de-legitimised even political separatism right from the start. That's something they'll have to get over if they want a sustainable resolution, which at some point they will.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th February 2015, 11:09 PM   #26
Matthew Ellard
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,693
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Once the fog of war clears a little we'll know more.
Thank you for your previous posted video. It was really interesting.

I agree that we should simply wait for information, however, at face value, this does appear to be the result of a classical encirclement. I wonder if Ukrainian commanders were forced by politicians into performing such a silly penetration, without strengthening their flanks. That would be very demoralizing for the remaining Ukrainian army.
Matthew Ellard is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 02:01 AM   #27
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
The correspondents were alread there.

Ukrainian soldiers share horrors of Debaltseve battle after stinging defeat
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tinging-defeat

Make-up, perhaps?

Who could doubt video evidence? Heck, it's almost as good as being there.

"There" is Artemisk, as I said (I follow the guy on twitter ). Look it up. It's not "there" there, is "where they flee to" there. Mostly first by foot and then by bus, even according to the article, unclear how many made it "heroically" through an ambush while trying to break out of the caulron and how many not so heroically by means you can see in the video.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...

Last edited by Childlike Empress; 19th February 2015 at 02:04 AM.
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 02:12 AM   #28
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
I'm afraid by the definition of your linked sources Tudor England was a fascist society, at which point the term loses all utility.
I'm not sure you can apply modern terminology to a feudal regime.
In fact I'm quite certain you can't. Lack of mass media, widespread illiteracy and general ignorance (on pretty much all subjects by modern standards) of a large majority of population alone make comparisons of that regime with fascism, which relies on them to control the masses, moot.

Quote:
Intrinsic to fascism is the hive-society in which there is no value in the individual except for an exceptional, semi-divine elite who embody the society. Thus we had the Catholic fascism of Spain and Croatia and the state fascism of Mussolini and Hitler; now we have the Islamic Fascism of ISIS and Iran, and Mao's China also qualified. Putin's Russia is a long way from it.
Really? How far is Putin's Russia from Franco's Spain, exactly? Sure, it's not as bad (yet) as Mao's China or ISIS, but it's already as bad if not worse as some of the commonly accepted fascist states, not outliers who may or may not qualify.

Quote:
This may well be an over-academic treatment of the subject, but there it is. Use the term as you wish (lots of people do that); I've registered my irritation at the cost of some thread derailment. Here I am debating minutiae (again) while there's a war going on. Silly, really.
It's quite relevant to the subject, for it has prognostic value. Russia is a party to the conflict, and it's internal organization and the way it's run will affect the outcome. You think it doesn't qualify as fascist, which has some implications. How would you qualify it, compare it to a historical example please

McHrozni

Last edited by McHrozni; 19th February 2015 at 02:21 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 02:21 AM   #29
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
That was indeed my point.

There's an influential school of nationalist thought which holds that a nation can only be forged in Blood and Iron (Bismarck's phrase, I think). A political process doesn't cut it, and compromise is treason. Almost all nationalist movements contain this element and they're quick to turn on leaders who negotiate - hence the murders of Michael Collins, Ghandi, King Abdullah of Jordan and Yitzhak Rabin (to name but a few).

The bellicose response of the new Ukrainian government to any talk of separitism, even before there was any violence, and the branding of separatists as terrorists makes me suspect that there were those in the government who wanted this conflict to forge their nation in. Separatism is not illegitimate; the means used to pursue it can be. The Ukrainian government de-legitimised even political separatism right from the start. That's something they'll have to get over if they want a sustainable resolution, which at some point they will.
I'm not sure Bismarck is literately correct. A nation can certainly be forged most easily by blood and iron, but you have several nations that weren't forged in that way. I'm reasonably certain Belgium and Switzerland are two such cases, Egypt traces it's origins to one of the oldest states in history. Hungarian identity also doesn't seem to be war-related.

If you want to do it quickly, as Ukraine needs to, a war may be your only option though. It may be Ukrainian president just acknowledged that, but the way things progressed first with Crimea and then with Donbass I wouldn't bet any money on it. It could just as easily have been an acknowledgment that Russia wants more land and it's shenanigans need to be stopped immediately, before things got out of hand. This still happened, but solely due to massive Russian involvement.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 09:11 AM   #30
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
Seems like Novorossiya has her own humvees now. Just like ISIS.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 04:43 PM   #31
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
[quote=McHrozni;10486306]I'm not sure you can apply modern terminology to a feudal regime.
In fact I'm quite certain you can't. Lack of mass media, widespread illiteracy and general ignorance (on pretty much all subjects by modern standards) of a large majority of population alone make comparisons of that regime with fascism, which relies on them to control the masses, moot.]/quote]
You're forgetting the Church and the fact that everybody had to attend weekly. Non-conformity was not an option and instructions were delivered verbally. Ignorance and superstition are no handicap; quite the opposite.

You're also forgetting my point : a definition of fascism that can encompass Tudor England is not terribly useful.


Quote:
Really? How far is Putin's Russia from Franco's Spain, exactly?
A very, very long way. Russia's Orthodox Church is a mere shadow of the Catholic Church in Spain; the Spanish Church was not so much an ally of the regime as an intrinsic part. Spain has a long history of that.

Quote:
Sure, it's not as bad (yet) as Mao's China or ISIS, but it's already as bad if not worse as some of the commonly accepted fascist states, not outliers who may or may not qualify.
That's purely your opinion; mine differs. And the idea that Russia could become like Mao's China is untenable. The deep history of two such different cultures precludes it.

Quote:
It's quite relevant to the subject, for it has prognostic value. Russia is a party to the conflict, and it's internal organization and the way it's run will affect the outcome. You think it doesn't qualify as fascist, which has some implications. How would you qualify it, compare it to a historical example please
Medici Florence.

Great fun though this is, we're missing the war.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 04:53 PM   #32
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,729
Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
I agree that we should simply wait for information, however, at face value, this does appear to be the result of a classical encirclement. I wonder if Ukrainian commanders were forced by politicians into performing such a silly penetration, without strengthening their flanks. That would be very demoralizing for the remaining Ukrainian army.
Ukraine already held the town so it wasn't a penetration. The mistake was in reinforcing failure, I think, a basic tactical error.

You raise an interesting question : who made the decision to stick it out so long - generals or politicians? Much may ride on the answer, or rather on whose answer becomes generally accepted.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 05:43 PM   #33
Matthew Ellard
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,693
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Ukraine already held the town so it wasn't a penetration. The mistake was in reinforcing failure, I think, a basic tactical error.
I'm guessing, that is why I'm seeing two different sorts of withdrawal. Some blokes on vehicles retreating who were on their way to the held points and some blokes low on food & ammunition, who were at the held points, retreating on foot or surrendering.

I thought it was interesting watching the "Rebel Commander" give the surrendered Ukrainian troops comfort ( You will be fed, treated well, given clothes and returned home soon). I imagine, (putting on my 1917 hat) that Russian political field workers would want to convey a sense of "reasonableness" about Russia, to these returning Ukrainian troops for future political benefit.

My gut feeling is that the whole problem is winding down and every one wins if it does so. (Well apart from Ukraine, but it is unclear how much the population will drop )
Matthew Ellard is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th February 2015, 11:16 PM   #34
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 15,951
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Meanwhile here is a Guardian article about Bellingcat (Brown Moses) using open information to give even stronger evidence of Russian state involvement.

Yeah, I read about that on twitter.
ETA: A spoof twitter account isn't actually a convincing argument - especially when it is so weak.

I notice that the twitter status selectively highlighted only a bit of the report:

Quote:
An independent military forensics expert warned that the accuracy of crater analysis in determining direction of fire on the basis of satellite photography was scientifically unproven
But missed this bit:

Quote:
An independent military forensics expert warned that the accuracy of crater analysis in determining direction of fire on the basis of satellite photography was scientifically unproven, but said that the images of firing positions on the Russian side of the border were compelling and raised questions of what they were doing there.
Which makes the first bit rather moot.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Ukrainian side has been lying about how well the war was/is going - that's to be expected. Russia, however has been lying about not actually attacking Ukraine.

The lies are a completely different type.

There are also plenty of reports of the Russian side using drones, and also several examples of downed Russian drones, which again shows Russian material.

Any one of the following would be sufficient to sufficiently undermine the Russian denials, and this is not a comprehensive list, just what I can recall off the top of my head:

1) Telegraph and Guardian correspondents watching Russian motorised units crossing the border

2) Foot patrol of Russian paratroopers captured at least 4-hours walk inside the border

3) Scorch marks corresponding to rocket launch sites and tyre tracks corresponding to launch vehicles visible on freely available commercial satellite images at the right place to account for attacks on Ukrainian troops in August when the tide suddenly turned against the separatists.

4) Reports of Russian drones, and photos of downed drones

5) Photos of the Russian side using non-Ukrainian MBTs (particular variants of T72's)

6) The interview with Igor Strelkov, where he admitted that he was an FSB colonel and under instruction from Russia

7) Stories of the Russian war widows who say that their husband was killed in Ukraine.

Together these confirm what independent press have been saying, that Russia is sponsoring and stirring up the separatist side
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending

Last edited by jimbob; 19th February 2015 at 11:17 PM.
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 02:47 AM   #35
Childlike Empress
Ewige Blumenkraft
 
Childlike Empress's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 14,862
The core of the false Ukrainian narrative that's unraveling is that this mess was caused by some "because we can" aggression by Putin who somehow needs more land or wants to restore the Soviet Union and will attack the Baltics next.

While in reality it has been caused by a protest movement stirred up by "the West" that went terribly wrong and let to a violent putsch that brought to power much unsavioury characters who sent the army after the East when they did the same that the West (Ukraine) did before: occupy public buildings, not accepting the booting of the man they overwhelmingly voted for.

The fact that it's not Kiev that's getting destroyed by artillery, but Donetsk and Lugansk, should alone be a cause for thinking.

Now we're here on the anniversary of the Maidan massacre that paved the way for the coup, and even the BBC is coming around with some limited hang-out about the real culprits, and it's time for people who want to be taken seriously to stop their "it's all Putin's fault and that guy from that rag saw a tank crossing the border" nonsense.

You're not getting away with this. The people of the Donbass aren't puppets. The freaks in Kiew are.
__________________
De-Putin-Nazify America!
...progress updates [1] [2] [...] [5]...
Childlike Empress is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 03:54 AM   #36
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
You're forgetting the Church and the fact that everybody had to attend weekly. Non-conformity was not an option and instructions were delivered verbally. Ignorance and superstition are no handicap; quite the opposite.
This would put Tudor England into totalitarian camp, meaning your own definition of Fascism would encompass it.

Just saying.

Quote:
You're also forgetting my point : a definition of fascism that can encompass Tudor England is not terribly useful.
Let's stick to post-industrial revolution regimes, shall we?

Quote:
A very, very long way. Russia's Orthodox Church is a mere shadow of the Catholic Church in Spain; the Spanish Church was not so much an ally of the regime as an intrinsic part. Spain has a long history of that.
This is changing, fast. Traditionally orthodox church was seen and (ab)used as a crucial ally, even vassal of the state.

Quote:
Great fun though this is, we're missing the war.
Perhaps, but the war is moving on more slowly than our debate can anyway, so we can indulge. How would you classify Russia, if not fascist? Surely a similar authoritarian to totalitarian, conservative, aggressive, militaristic, xenophobic regime existed in the past several times, who do you think is the best historically similar example?

An interesting comparison between communism and fascism. Russia scores very highly on pretty much all fascist points:
http://www.diffen.com/difference/Communism_vs_Fascism

McHrozni

Last edited by McHrozni; 20th February 2015 at 04:05 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 05:47 AM   #37
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 23,463
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
An interesting comparison between communism and fascism. Russia scores very highly on pretty much all fascist points:
http://www.diffen.com/difference/Communism_vs_Fascism
I think the most interesting thing about that comparison is that it's sourced entirely from online encyclopedias and HowStuffWorks.com. Oh, and Dictionary.com. It's the opposite of insightful analysis, just a compilation of scrapings off the top of whatever conventional wisdom happens to be available online. Like paying the smart kid in junior high to write your book report for you.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 07:20 AM   #38
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think the most interesting thing about that comparison is that it's sourced entirely from online encyclopedias and HowStuffWorks.com. Oh, and Dictionary.com. It's the opposite of insightful analysis, just a compilation of scrapings off the top of whatever conventional wisdom happens to be available online. Like paying the smart kid in junior high to write your book report for you.
Do you have a better comparison that shows Russia is not, in fact, fascist?

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 07:31 AM   #39
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
I'm not sure if this is the correct thread (please move if it isn't), but Russian reserves are down another $6 billion this month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND

Undoubtedly the (sole?) cause of small rises in Rouble.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th February 2015, 08:03 AM   #40
Border Reiver
Philosopher
 
Border Reiver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,089
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The core of the false Ukrainian narrative that's unraveling is that this mess was caused by some "because we can" aggression by Putin who somehow needs more land or wants to restore the Soviet Union and will attack the Baltics next.
The abduction of an Estonian officer from inside Estonia by the FSB and then parading him on Russian national TV was a Russian attempt to reassure their neighbours that all they want is peaceful relations?

Quote:
While in reality it has been caused by a protest movement stirred up by "the West" that went terribly wrong and let to a violent putsch that brought to power much unsavioury characters who sent the army after the East when they did the same that the West (Ukraine) did before: occupy public buildings, not accepting the booting of the man they overwhelmingly voted for.
If the Maidan protester were the hopeless dupes of the West, only acting because outside influence from the West, why is the Eastern movement then a spontaneous reaction totally uninfluenced by Russia?

You keep mentioning these fascists, etc. - yes there are some extreme right wingers in the Ukrainian Parliament - all one of them.

And the Maidan movement evolved rather different fomr the East - the Maidan occupied public space intially, while the East started its movement by sending armed men into public buildings right at the beginning.

Quote:
The fact that it's not Kiev that's getting destroyed by artillery, but Donetsk and Lugansk, should alone be a cause for thinking.
That Donetsk and Lugansk are cities in breakaway regions militarily resisting the central government while Kyiv isn't, and the Donetsk and Lugansk forces are not strong enough to force their way to Kyiw?

Quote:
Now we're here on the anniversary of the Maidan massacre that paved the way for the coup, and even the BBC is coming around with some limited hang-out about the real culprits, and it's time for people who want to be taken seriously to stop their "it's all Putin's fault and that guy from that rag saw a tank crossing the border" nonsense.
It is also time for people to come to terms with the fact that Putin has been stirring the pot heavily in Ukraine, and is far more involved than he admits publically.

Quote:
You're not getting away with this. The people of the Donbass aren't puppets. The freaks in Kiew are.
Who do you think is "getting away with it?" And you may wish to wipe the spittle from the corners of your mouth after that last bit.
__________________
Questions, comments, queries, bitches, complaints, rude gestures and/or remarks?
Border Reiver is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:05 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.